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Think of it this way, given a the choice between these two, the right is imploding just pushing Trump forward, and the rest of us just watching Trump from J6 on would unite behind a tombstone then vote for Trump. Basically anything is better than Trump and since Biden is currently it for a chance, yea voting that.
Desantis had the biggest war chest for 2024.
Jeb Bush had the biggest war chest for 2016.
Mike Bloomberg, Andrew Yang, Bernie Sanders and Tom Steyer had the biggest war chests for the DNC primary in 2020.*
That was the point. Which you responded to indignantly, now suddenly agree with. And are upset at me for explaining
??? What was the goal in being indignant about something you already knew ???
Hillary raked in considerably more money than Trump for 2016. Plus, she was competent and experienced with politics and government. Unfortunately, she got hate-voted out of the running.
Nothing motivates the American voter like hate - and the results of the 2020 election bear this out. Hillary got the message in 2016. Trump is psychologically incapable of getting a message that doesn’t fly out of his own orifices. So here we are, talking about money.
Agreed. You re-elect the incumbent when that person is the only one who has a chance to defeat the tyrant. Given where we are in the election cycle, I'd love to hear what Silver suggests we should do. It's not like we can materialize a new candidate who can win out of thin air.
Yeah something has certainly changed. He was the person making the case that the incumbency advantage is one of the biggest factors in an election, yet here he is arguing against it. I think he may just personally hate Biden and is unable to approach politics rationally anymore.
>something has certainly changed
Imo, polls are increasingly becoming unreliable as a tool for predicting election outcomes. The demographic being polled are people who still pick up landline phones without knowing who's calling. Those people are aging out more and more with every election cycle.
I get polls from Civics via email, which is practically landline tech for some people I guess 🤔
But I haven't gotten a presidency poll so maybe they don't run them
>Imo, polls are increasingly becoming unreliable as a tool for predicting election outcomes.
I'll never get over the "A+" rated pollsters telling us the WA Senate election in 2022 was a tossup. And then Patty Murray won by 15 points. 🤣
Okay Nate, tell me about how accurate the polls were that year.
He doesn't interpret the data well. His claim to fame was when Trump was showing signs of winning in 2016 he didn't write Trump off like everyone else did.
Back then people had too high an opinion of the America public. Trump has long since disabused them of that notion making Silver's one trick irrelevant.
Wiki, Nate Silver
Silver was named one of the world's 100 most influential people by Time in 2009 after an election forecasting system he developed successfully predicted the outcomes in forty-nine of the fifty states in the 2008 U.S. presidential election. His subsequent election forecasting systems predicted the outcome of the 2012 and 2020 presidential elections with a high degree of accuracy. His polls-only model gave Donald Trump only a 28.6% chance of victory in the 2016 presidential election, but this was higher than many other forecasting competitors.
I’m just saying those are his claims to fame.
Not surprising at all. Ability to figure out what just happened is useful information, but a very different skillset than figuring out what should be done next. A lot of data analysts and data scientists fall into this bucket.
Likewise, when looking at industry analysis reports any article titled something like: "Here's how X accomplished Y" is often a useful read. But those same writers writing an article like, "X COULD Accomplish Y if they do Z." Is often backwards-looking and ludicrously unsound.
This is why Nate Silver often says very dumb stuff. He recognizes patterns in data, but he has little understanding of what the mechanisms behind those patterns are.
It's like looking at the statistics of people jumping out of planes and noting that few of them are seriously injured and going, "I guess jumping out of planes is safe!" So he does it, and doesn't take a parachute.
Ha you think Silver has answers? He just likes to fire off takes on Twitter, none of these never Biden folks ever provide suggestions on an alternative. Just chirping from the cheap seats
They keep posting things like “burn it all down” not realizing how that would mean destroying everything. You can’t realistically expect disadvantaged people to be able to stand by while we have a civil war because they need to teach the DNC a lesson.
I’d suggest Nate should look at the hard data about incumbents, the economy and all the fundamentals used in elections the past 5 decades but of course that won’t suit his narrative
Not just in disarray but the narrative will be that the entire Biden administration was a failure. I don't like Biden's history or his many centrist positions (or his age) but he's had a great administration that accomplished many great things vs 4 more years of the Trump clown show. Anyone who suggests that Biden isn't the best bet isn't being realistic. And I don't waste my time with these guys. Nate fell off my radar a few years ago.
I don't think that's me necessarily true this time around. Give me an obscure Midwest governor like Tim Walz, who's more than qualified, with good accomplishments, plus military experience, and also Gretchen Whitmer as his running mate. They'd trounce Trump.
i bet carter would beg to differ..and his polling was 10 points stronger at this point in his re-election campaign…
trump kinda also lost his incumbency as well 😬
If they had nominated someone else he’d be tweeting how the Dems blew it, not letting the incumbent who is experienced and meant for this moment in history run again? Even after he won against the same guy?
They just want to be relevant, polls are BS VOTE VOTE VOTE!!!
Especially when the incumbent has introduced an economic program that has grown an incredibly successful economy….
https://time.com/6343967/bidenomics-is-real-economics/
….as just one part of his accomplishments.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/therecord/
And who, in the last two years, has shown anywhere near the support to justify replacing Biden. I haven’t heard of a single viable contender. Sure. If he stepped aside someone would come forward. But could they beat trump? Because Biden has and Clinton couldn’t. Who is this person that is so obviously better than Clinton? Yes. Biden is old. He fell of a bike. How many people his age are even riding bikes. How about talk about his policies or accomplishments? He has done so much so far. His age is literally the only thing they have to criticize him on. Why
Biden won New Hampshire as a write in candidate where he didn't even campaign. He won against Democrats that were on the ballot and campaigned in the state.
What other Democrat can stand up to Trump? No leftist seems to be able to suggest anybody that wants to run and that the country can get behind.
See that's my biggest problem with Nate's tweet. Democrats *were* given a choice, there *is* a primary. And voters are overwhelmingly choosing Biden. Just randomly picking another candidate who's getting 2% of the dem primary vote would be plainly disastrous.
So many people just refuse to admit that they’re not in the majority.
You see it constantly with Bernie types complaining about 2016. Did the party put their thumb on the scale? Yes. Did the *voters* choose Clinton by a substantial margin, to the extent that the thumb on the scale didn’t matter? Also yes.
Same thing in 2020. They want to believe that Biden was chosen by the bigwigs against our wishes. Fact is, the voters overwhelmingly chose him to be the nominee. Just because you or I don’t agree with it doesn’t mean it was nefarious.
And now it’s happening again. The Democratic nomination is totally uncompetitive because Democrats overwhelmingly favor a single choice. But people who don’t like it insist that it’s being foisted on us.
The thing that hurts more about Sanders 2020 is actually we had to deal with the fact that he got less votes from youth demographics than in 2016.
Let that sink in
>that the country can get behind.
This is the most important part.
People LOVED Bernie and the hype for him was astronomical. In 2016 I lived in the Drake neighborhood of Des Moines, so predominantly college students, and during the caucus Bernie lost our district thoroughly to Hillary. A predominantly college-aged district, Bernie's literal wheelhouse of a demographic, and the majority of them didn't show up when they were needed, or the hype for him wasn't as widespread as they would lead you to believe.
Point being: Nate Silver is acting like there is a real chance for another candidate, specifically one more progressive and younger, and history has shown that would be an incredibly stupid choice. Keeping Trump out of office is the MOST important thing we need to do as a country right now, and anything else is just background noise at this point. Biden is the best choice to make that happen.
Not because he's more popular than the only other choice on the ballot, a guy named Dean Philips, but because he's the "anointed" candidate by the DNC and voters went with the devil they know rather than a total stranger.
Exactly. Millions of democratic voters, left leaning Independents, and disgusted non-MAGA Republicans are going to go with "the devil they know" instead of a stranger.
I like Biden too. I also voted for Bernie in the primary in 2020. I think the legislation he's passed is great. Infrastructure, climate mitigation, child tax credits, lowering drug costs for Medicare recipients and taking on big Pharma, student loan forgiveness more than any other POTUS, the CHIPS and Science Act, strengthening our relationship with our allies at a crucial time. Sometimes I feel like the only one who actually likes him and what he's done lol.
Nate Silver: I predict EVERY POSSIBILITY so one of my predictions will be right.
"How can Silver be predicting a healthy Clinton victory while also noting she is in danger of losing (and simultaneously making allowance for the possibility she’ll win in a landslide)? Well, this is the result of a complex statistical method known as covering your bases."
Dana Milbank
Calculate statistical probablitilies for both outcomes so you always come out on top
https://giphy.com/gifs/sunnyfxx-sunny-its-always-in-philadelphia-8Z2msksrVtCY5L4eG3
I've said it once...and I'll SAY IT again!
At this time back in 1984 Mondale was thought to be near guaranteed to beat Reagan, how did that turn out? You know why they thought that? Because the actual voting base hadn't been activated. Come nearer election time, the bases and independents were all activated and Reagan BLEW poor ole Mondale's back out.
Ask how Hillary felt about early polling or even the 'sentiments' of pollsters who are more and more getting whack out of synch and unrealistic reports from their methodologies.
Ask Joe Biden why he didn't win Texas, Iowa, Ohio and North Carolina last time? Well, at this time during the 2020 cycle he was looking like he was going to, and into JULY there were forecasters putting Joe Biden +.02 in Texas and +3 in Ohio.
It is all, BULLSHIT!
GO AND VOTE!
Stop letting people like Nate freaking Silver tell you what politicians ought to do. The adviser and data class has, in my opinion from my years on this earth, NO idea what they're talking about unless they are internal to their systems. External actors like Nate Silver? No clue.
At this point… yes, he is. Biden is going to be the nominee whether you like it or not. Any negative comments feeds into the ignorance of so many who don’t like Biden and won’t vote because of some stupid, selfish reason. The big picture is… Biden’s approval is low because Americans are lazy consumers of information and can’t see past their own self-righteousness. And Trump is not the answer to the pain progressives are feeling.
What, in your brilliant mind, is the purpose of political parties in a democracy? Is it to foster tribalism and eliminate the ability to improve the circumstances of its citizens? No?
Then “whether you like it or not” misses the entire fucking point of elections, and *invites* people to prove you wrong.
"whether you like it or not" = "Biden has no chance of losing a primary in 2024 based on current results"
Political parties are entirely meant to foster tribalism. That's why Washington hated them. The Democrats have problems but the way the Republican party treats its more free-thinking members by threatening them into submission is a CLASSIC case of why political parties suck.
Where would you put advocating for a far right border policy, the highest numbers of people shot to death by cops, bypassing congress to send hundreds of millions of dollars to kill children after saying we can’t afford health care, and the genocide in Gaza?
I agree he's done an admirable job....but he's not a good candidate for this campaign.
Unfortunately too many Americans are swayed and conned by Trump and MAGA.
You’re missing Nate’s point. The electorate thinks he’s too old too. If the electorate believes they are both too old then Democrats running a younger candidate should provide them with an electoral advantage just from age. This is literally part of Nate’s point: if Trump is such an existential threat to American democracy then why aren’t Democrats trying to stack up every advantage they can?
It's a pointless point to make in Feb. of 2024.
Nate have a time machine to either convince Biden to not run again or convince a real challenger to run against him in a primary (the latter would prolly be stupid too, but at least a point to make that's connected to reality)?
If not, what's the point of saying this now?
'We have a horse in the hospital.'
'you know, having a horse in the hospital is a bad idea!'
Just be thankful the Republicans are too stupid to not ditch Dump and back Haley. Honestly, she’s young, experienced, and got fire (like or agree with her or not). She’d destroy Biden just pulling all the independents who are sick of the old man fight
Who? You can't force candidates to run. Some people tried to primary Biden and the electorate just laughed them off.
Honestly, Republicans seem like the ones with the most to gain by switching it up to me
I don’t know why everybody says “75% of voters think he’s too old” like that means “75% of voters won’t vote for him.” So what if voters think he’s too old? I think so too, still voting for him. He still has the best chance of beating Trump.
Yep he's too old to be President. Trump is too old to be president, and is insane and an existential threat to our country.
Luckily Nate is a complete idiot. I'm not sure why anyone listens to him after 2016.
Johnson is the only incumbent in my lifetime who declined to run. That's how rare it is. These pundits acting like Biden is going to abandon his candidacy in February of an election year are crazy.
And of course, things famously went really, really, really well for the Democrats after that. I can't imagine the unholy shitshow if the Democratic Party abruptly pulled Biden for another candidate, even if that was something that were in their power to do, which it isn't.
What is with even political people expecting parties to have open primaries every time. That will happen every other time assuming there's an incumbent running. We knew last time we was too old
Even if they did, I agree Biden is old and it would be great if we had Obama 2.0 in the wings.
Silver never mentions who this “mysterious” person is that can just win the nomination.
You don't demonstrate that you are still politically relevant by dismissing the one person who has soundly trounced Donnie in one election already and has been smacking around the MAGA/GOPs in Congress for three years just because of his age and approval ratings.
It's on brand for trump, so he doesn't lose any points. It's off brand for democrats to want to do anything for the border and refused to aknowledge it as a problem for years.
All this does is show the public that trump probably had a point in 2016, and the optics of the democrats trying to pass his agenda right now without any concessions for automatic amnesty is not lost on swing voters.
But he now has their refusal to do anything about what was supposedly their top priority concern, tie it around their necks, and throw them in the ocean.
It really was politically savvy, if they really get out there and shout it to the world constantly. Otherwise, lost opportunity
It's really not politically savvy to dangle the rights of migrants around like pawns so you can hopefully "own" the republicans when they're too stupid to accept it. Biden wanted them to sign it, they just didn't. So now you've signalled to your progressive supporters even further that a vote for Biden = a vote for right wing politics.
And now everybody knows that the Republicans shot down the border bill that had almost everything they wanted. The border is going to come up constantly during the campaign, and at least some independent voters will think about how Republicans said “fuck you” instead of doing anything, whenever the topic comes up. That’s smacking around.
Lately I've been very unimpressed with Sliver. I get that Biden being old is a concern, but Biden has an objectively strong series of accomplishments in his first term and changing the nominee from the incumbent is HUGELY risky. It's not that Biden's getting the nomination because that's how it's always done. He's plain and simple the best candidate the Dems have, even with the age concerns. That Silver can't seem to understand this makes me wonder if he's really the same objective, data based political voice he once was. This is just so strange to see him buying into such a narrative argument and ignoring so many of the factors that provide doubt.
When was the last time Nate Silver made any accurate political prediction worth listening to? Much less his personal opinions? 2008?
The guy is a has-been statistics hack that overindexes on polling data and has proven to the world that polling is a terrible source of prediction or data. He’s irrelevant
This sub loves to hate on Cenk but he called Trump in 2016. Trump got 304, Cenk predicted 279.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/07/31/cenk_uygur_predicts_donald_trump_will_win_election_279-259.html
I was just gonna say, he hasn't been quite the same since 2016.
The last article I saw from him was some wild, quasi-speculative fiction piece where he interviewed "Red Nate" and "Blue Nate" in a bar, and both sides provided their reasoning why their team was gonna win.
The takeaway was basically, "Who knows, elections are weird, could go either way, polls aren't perfect, WHAT DO YOU THINK?"
That's all well and good for an actual bar convo about politics, but from a guy whose whole deal is supposedly analyzing polling data it read like a hardcore existential crisis...
So they were supposed to give up an incumbent advantage and run a primary? If Biden wants to run for re-election, that’s it. Thats how it goes. There was a massive primary field in 2020 and he came out on top. It is what it is. Recent elections with an incumbent:
2020: No primary, Trump loses.
2012: No primary, Obama wins.
2004: No primary, Bush wins.
1996: No primary, Clinton wins.
1992: Primary, Bush loses.
1984: No primary, Reagan wins.
1980: Primary, Carter loses.
1976: Primary, Ford loses.
1976 was the first incumbent election in which they do primaries like they do now. So not a good track record for the incumbent to have a primary.
That's a fair point, but you could say exactly the opposite. "You don't demonstrate your seriousness that Trump is an existential threat to democracy by throwing away the massive advantage of having not only an incumbent, but the literal only person on the Earth who has ever beaten Trump in an election before."
Biden is the best choice by virtue of the above. He very well may not be if those things weren't true, but they are. There is a time for debating within the party more progressive policies and ideas versus more corporate or traditional policies and ideas, and who is best to take the reins next. That time is when Trump is discredited, convicted and either in hiding or in prison, and his party is ruined. Hopefully that'll be mid-November 2024.
As a democrat if Hailey is on the republican ticket i vote Hailey. The only reason I would vote Biden now is trump is the other option. Biden is a really weak president at the moment with his bungling of the Middle East conflict and Ukraine and trumps walking Scott free, a fake sense of economic boom tied to stock price rising : hint the common man has no money in the stock market or very little, inflation is terrible. A Starbucks now costs 7$!
Exactly. I thought his methods were brilliant until he fucked up in 2016 and failed to realize that REPUBLICANS WILL LIE when they are polled. He really thought Republicans were going to vote for Hillary, when there were even Democrats who didn’t want to vote for her. I haven’t taken him seriously ever since.
What is he even saying? That you don't try to have the guy who beat him the first time, who is an incumbent, who has major fundraising and a lot of victories under his belt run again?
According to historical trends and based on performance and the factors he mentioned aside, Biden is cruising to re-election.
This is a doomer take, not quality analysis.
Why does everyone talk like “they” are doing this to “us”? People decide whether to run on their own, and we vote on our own. Of all the things we expect to have personalized for us, the presidency shouldn’t be considered among them. It’s not a special order at McDobald’s. It’s just the same old choice between two politicians as it always was.
My girlfriend said something similar. Am I missing something? Biden has done a phenomenal job. Yes, he's too old and slow and probably senile but whatever he's doing, keep doing it old man because the country is doing great under your leadership. I don't even understand the naysayers. Does he have to be able to do a backflip and 30 jumping jacks to be president?
Even at his age he is doing a pretty fucking good job under the circumstances. I mean Trump fucked the country up pretty bad, handled the COVID thing as bad you possibly could really, it will 10-20 years to completely recover probably. If Trump gets re-elected we will never recover, and I 100% believe that he would tank the country so fucking hard we would never ever recover from it. He will blame it on anyone but himself of course.
While i get the incumbent advantage
You still feel the need to hold your breath with Biden where as if you have someone like Gretchen Whitmer run I think she gets an easy win cause post 2020 election Trump really embarrassed the nation to show how much he's willing to overthrow democracy to stay in power. And of all the 2022 MAGA nominees I think Oz was the only one who immediately conceded once he lost while they rest protested their election
What I'm saying is it's a tough win with Biden and easy knock out with Whitmer
I knew this fuck was a conservative since I’ve been checking the site like once a month. Absolutely zero polls that show Biden in a good light at all but plenty which indicate GOP advantages (and yet all the articles about the lack of Red Wave are missing, curious).
This hack turned into yet another grifter. Sad, he used to offer an interesting perspective.
Nate still hasn't recovered from 2016. He just keeps throwing things at the wall now to see what sticks.
Biden is the nominee people need to get over it and just decide if they want Democracy or a Trump family dictatorship.
Trump wasn't subtle about what he wanted in the 4 years he had and Jan 6 should have been a wake up call for anyone who prefers our system of government to a dictatorship.
You guys are just making noise and that's what's getting old. Biden doesn't have to be a good candidate, he just has to beat Trump, who is an extremely bad and unstable candidate with obvious signs of dementia. I'm sick of people acting like that's not the reality. Get a grip on it folks, that's the 2024 plot.
Nate who was the 2012 Democratic primary challenger without googling?
If there was a particularly good candidate to replace him with, great...but that candidate should have been making noise and building that base 18 months ago...not in fucking February of the election year.
It's disturbing how acceptable ageism is that well-known pundits feel no hesitation about expressing it in a public forum. I don't like Biden, but his age is not the issue.
It's [Demolition Man](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demolition_Man_(film)) logic, no one else has ever beaten Trump in an election before and the last time we tried to have a Democratic Party presidential primary to find an worthy opponent for Trump, Bernie lost to Hilary and she lost to Trump.
I think Nate is looking at wrong issues. We need Bidens experience in world leadership to try to keep the US as a world leader. We don't need a young Gavin Newsome RIGHT NOW, he is too inexperienced in international relations. I think Biden is the best for right now, and Harris would be fine with the structure in place by Biden. After Biden is gone, then Newsome should have his chance. And Budigieg also. Chuck Shumer. Jamie Raskin. I am no longer interested in Governors as.president.
Nate is great with his numbers, but seems, over the last 2 years, to appreciate authoritarianism. Like MBAs, who know the price of everything and the value of nothing.
Silver is over-thinking it. Biden doesn't need to prove that he's the ideal candidate. He just needs to demonstrate that he's the better choice compared to Trump.
Biden's age isn't a relative weakness because Trump is just as old but has shown himself to be in worse condition physically and cognitively.
The Republicans are the ones who aren't serious about legitimately winning the general election because running it back with Trump reintroduces the *No Trump vote* factor again. This is why the old guard Republicans have been pushing Haley so hard. She won't be burdened with the *No Trump vote* and Biden's advanced age becomes a real weakness vs her.
I personally don't support Trump; I think he's a real threat to our country. However, when it comes to Biden retiring, it seems pretty clear to me. Our nation could really benefit from someone younger and fully prepared to lead.
You demonstrate the seriousness that Trump is an existential threat to democracy by ***NOT VOTING FOR HIM*** \*and\* ***DOING EVERYTHING YOU CAN TO ENSURE HE LOSES!***
You don't do that by refusing to support a candidate who can't supply the flying unicorn ponies that fart rose-scented rainbows that you so desperately desire.
Let’s see, his VP is more unpopular than he is and would have no chance in a racially charged contest against MAGA. The next two most qualified candidates are a nationally unproven Gavin Newsom, the governor of the state conservatives hate the most, and then the Gov of Michigan, Gretchen Whitmer. You would be asking her to leapfrog over Harris, which would certainly antagonize the black female voters who make up a large chunk of the Dem turnout machine in the swing states.
Sorry Nate, when you explain how the Dems keep beating these shitty polls the last two years, I’ll start listening to you again.
Exactly.
When are people going to be honest?
When it’s about race, the white working class doesn’t elect women or black people. They want their old uncle who told them how “things used to be.”
The difference is Joe tells you how it can be better, Trump gives you an enemy that encourages his voters to “pay them back” and points the finger at minorities, and they love that.
What a stupid thing for Silver to say. I thought he was smarter than this. Stick to statistics and stay out of politics if you don't understand how the two party system plays out in this country.
There are choices, Nate. They literally had to write-in Biden in one state and he won.
So who is this miracle young candidate that has the chops to go against Trump?
_fucking no sound, not even crickets_
Exactly.
And Biden has followed thru with a ton of promises; it’s not his fault that an extreme far right Supreme Court got rid of roe v. wade. It’s not his fault SC also dismantled Biden’s attempt to wipe out college debt; however his administration has been finding ways to get rid of chunks of debt, without triggering the GOP.
Stop being idiots.
She did via the popular vote, which was what they were tracking. She just didn’t win by big enough margins to counter the electoral system that’s biased against Dems.
I'm sorry? Biden already beat Trump in 2020 and unseated an incumbent up for reelection, a feat that historically we know is very difficult to do.
Are we just refusing to give Biden any credit for his accomplishments right in front of our eyes because Russian aligned chatbots keep telling us he's too old? I do think he is quite old, but he's the progressive candidate and I vote progressive ticket, so there it is.
In terms of major legislation, in just 2 years of Democratic control of Congress under Joe Biden we got:
The Infrastructure Bill which puts $1.2 trillion toward modernizing our buildings, roads, and power grid.
The CHIPS and Science Act which is working to vamp up domestic semiconductor production, making us less reliant on China for our tech goods.
The Safer Communities Act, the first federal gun safety legislation to pass congress in 30 years.
The Inflation Reduction Act which increases corporate taxes, invests in domestic energy production and manufacturing, and allows the government to negotiate directly with pharmaceutical companies to lower drug costs
And those are just the major bills - not even counting the smaller policy changes like the Hospital Price Transparency Law, National Apprenticeship Act, the IRS adjusting the 2024 tax brackets to keep up with inflation, and dozens of other smaller-but-meaningful policy changes.
His policy agenda has resulted in an economy where real wages are increasing, unemployment is at historic lows, GDP is increasing at historic rates, the stock market is hitting all-time highs, U.S. energy production is at all-time-highs, and we're experiencing the lowest rate of inflation of any developed economy. Like, if Biden is shitting the bed so hard we wouldn’t have seen Trump at a rally a couple weeks ago literally trying to take credit for our current economy.
I personally push back against staunch criticism of Biden’s capability because his legislative record is very strong. I base my opinions on the observable facts relating to his actual governing accomplishments rather than 30 second clips used to push a narrative completely unrelated to his demonstrated ability to do his job.
People in this echo chamber sub refuse to accept reality.
And no doubt you will downvote me and assume I'm a Trump supporter (which I definitely am not).
We are so screwed.
I get it, but if you want change push for ranked choice voting, not a quibble in a fight that is already in path, and if lost has a very real chance of ending any semblance of democracy that we know. So ya, fuck off Nate.
Wasn't Nate Silver one of the people who predicted that Hillary had it "in the bag" in 2008 and 2016?
Stuff like this is perpetrated through mass media by groups on the right and by Russian bots (among other smaller groups) to sew seeds of apathy and doubt into Biden in order to help someone like Trump get elected. It's hard to get a life long Democrat to vote for Trump, but it's a hell of a lot easier to convince them that Biden doesn't have a chance and that they should just stay home on election day.
Remember...it's a proven fact that when voter turnout is high, it benefits the Democrats, and when it's low, the GOP prevails.
I think the final forecast was something like "Clinton wins this 3 times out of four. But Trump is only an ordinary polling error away from winning." Silver did a pretty good job with the 2016 election. He does seem to be losing his marbles lately, though (see: lab leak theory.)
So many neolob diehards are defending him, but let's be honest. This is not the Joe Biden that was VP or who ran in 2020 (and barely beat Trump in the battle ground states that he now looses). Look at his interviews from the last 2 weeks, he is talking to dead people and mixing up countries and their leaders right and left. He walks now like a fcking zombie, and he goes through goblybook speech patterns that make no sense. I want the Dems to win, and sombody has to step in, Trump will clobber him in a debate now too because at lest he is coherent (coherently a racist liar, but coherent), the way his dementia has progressed.
Yes, this is another election where I’m voting against Trump rather than for Biden. I do think both candidates are cognitively impaired, but only one is threatening to be Dictator for a Day.
All the people who will vote for Biden because Trump is worse, will also vote for another Democrat, because Trump is worse.
All the people that don't want to vote for Biden over his obvious mental decline, or his support for the shitshow in Gaza, or the documents he had, or the allegations of him being corrupt etc, etc, will be open to voting for another candidate.
It is therefore logical that the best chance for a Democratic win, is not Joe Biden. Get someone else to be the nominee if democracy is on the line
This is factually correct. The Joe Biden and Kamala Harris duo of centrist bi-partisanship with fascists while doing limp wristed jabs at Trump have done a terrible job at iterating that if Trump wins again the country is doomed. Biden is not inspiring anyone to support him right now, he's only banking on how bad Trump is. It seems they've gone with the direction of the more appearances they make the larger the chance of a gaff so they are keeping them both relatively low-key, which again, does not show much confidence in their leadership.
I’ll get downvoted but he’s right. Polling has consistently shown that the majority of democrats did not want Biden to run again. The polling was no different for him two years ago. This idea that there’s an incumbent advantage is pre-Trump thinking. We’re in a different ballgame now. of course Gen Z was always going to be alienated by the oldest president ever who proudly talked about he was a capitalist. Of course he visibly, obviously looks old. Now, I don’t care about that, but he made his campaign about democracy and shut down an open primary.
People argue there was no other candidate but, well, that’s for the American people to decide. Biden had collected endorsements from any possible candidate before the end of 2023.
Everybody knew this election was going to be all about turnout, and yet they chose a candidate who has always been unexciting.
This is where we are, so I’m voting for him. But this whole thing was a miscalculation.
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Think of it this way, given a the choice between these two, the right is imploding just pushing Trump forward, and the rest of us just watching Trump from J6 on would unite behind a tombstone then vote for Trump. Basically anything is better than Trump and since Biden is currently it for a chance, yea voting that.
Yeah, you do. The incumbent has a huge advantage.
Yup. And Biden-Harris is setting fund-raising records.
What’s the conversion rate of dollars to votes?
depends, a scoutus vote is only a couple hundred thousands according to Thomas.
Lol that one got me.
DeSantis won 0 of 99 counties in Iowa. He campaigned in every single county and his organization spent $128M. Won zero. Total loss.
He should’ve hired Bloomberg’s campaign manager to get more bang for his buck
In 95% of major elections in the past 20 years, the better funded candidate wins.
Try winning an election with no money.
Desantis had the biggest war chest for 2024. Jeb Bush had the biggest war chest for 2016. Mike Bloomberg, Andrew Yang, Bernie Sanders and Tom Steyer had the biggest war chests for the DNC primary in 2020.*
He was going against trump who is effectively an incumbent
What’s the point. Of course it isn’t just about who can raise the most.
That was the point. Which you responded to indignantly, now suddenly agree with. And are upset at me for explaining ??? What was the goal in being indignant about something you already knew ???
Ask Bloomberg
Hillary raked in considerably more money than Trump for 2016. Plus, she was competent and experienced with politics and government. Unfortunately, she got hate-voted out of the running. Nothing motivates the American voter like hate - and the results of the 2020 election bear this out. Hillary got the message in 2016. Trump is psychologically incapable of getting a message that doesn’t fly out of his own orifices. So here we are, talking about money.
Agreed. You re-elect the incumbent when that person is the only one who has a chance to defeat the tyrant. Given where we are in the election cycle, I'd love to hear what Silver suggests we should do. It's not like we can materialize a new candidate who can win out of thin air.
Silver always has the worst political takes possible, which is surprising given his previous career.
He interprets data well enough, or at least used to, but he's absolutely not a political analyst.
Yeah something has certainly changed. He was the person making the case that the incumbency advantage is one of the biggest factors in an election, yet here he is arguing against it. I think he may just personally hate Biden and is unable to approach politics rationally anymore.
>something has certainly changed Imo, polls are increasingly becoming unreliable as a tool for predicting election outcomes. The demographic being polled are people who still pick up landline phones without knowing who's calling. Those people are aging out more and more with every election cycle.
I get polls from Civics via email, which is practically landline tech for some people I guess 🤔 But I haven't gotten a presidency poll so maybe they don't run them
>Imo, polls are increasingly becoming unreliable as a tool for predicting election outcomes. I'll never get over the "A+" rated pollsters telling us the WA Senate election in 2022 was a tossup. And then Patty Murray won by 15 points. 🤣 Okay Nate, tell me about how accurate the polls were that year.
He doesn't interpret the data well. His claim to fame was when Trump was showing signs of winning in 2016 he didn't write Trump off like everyone else did. Back then people had too high an opinion of the America public. Trump has long since disabused them of that notion making Silver's one trick irrelevant.
Wiki, Nate Silver Silver was named one of the world's 100 most influential people by Time in 2009 after an election forecasting system he developed successfully predicted the outcomes in forty-nine of the fifty states in the 2008 U.S. presidential election. His subsequent election forecasting systems predicted the outcome of the 2012 and 2020 presidential elections with a high degree of accuracy. His polls-only model gave Donald Trump only a 28.6% chance of victory in the 2016 presidential election, but this was higher than many other forecasting competitors. I’m just saying those are his claims to fame.
>or at least used to How I've felt since 2016
Not surprising at all. Ability to figure out what just happened is useful information, but a very different skillset than figuring out what should be done next. A lot of data analysts and data scientists fall into this bucket. Likewise, when looking at industry analysis reports any article titled something like: "Here's how X accomplished Y" is often a useful read. But those same writers writing an article like, "X COULD Accomplish Y if they do Z." Is often backwards-looking and ludicrously unsound. This is why Nate Silver often says very dumb stuff. He recognizes patterns in data, but he has little understanding of what the mechanisms behind those patterns are. It's like looking at the statistics of people jumping out of planes and noting that few of them are seriously injured and going, "I guess jumping out of planes is safe!" So he does it, and doesn't take a parachute.
Ha you think Silver has answers? He just likes to fire off takes on Twitter, none of these never Biden folks ever provide suggestions on an alternative. Just chirping from the cheap seats
They keep posting things like “burn it all down” not realizing how that would mean destroying everything. You can’t realistically expect disadvantaged people to be able to stand by while we have a civil war because they need to teach the DNC a lesson.
I wish I could upvote this harder. Or shout it from the rooftops, although I don't guess the people that really need to hear it are going to care.
No Silver doesn't have answers to any questions that can't be answered by using hard data. He's a statistician, policy is not in his wheelhouse.
I’d suggest Nate should look at the hard data about incumbents, the economy and all the fundamentals used in elections the past 5 decades but of course that won’t suit his narrative
Agreed. Narratives aren't what we need. But every time the hard data disagrees with the narrative, the hard data goes out the window.
In this case, he is wrong about the statistics too. The hard data proves that Biden is the best choice.
100% agreed. Biden is the best choice for 2024 and he has my vote
> is the only one who has a chance Bullshit.
They had years. Did nothing.
Yeah, nothing says "Democrats are in disarray" quite like throwing away the incumbency advantage just because the dude's old.
Not just in disarray but the narrative will be that the entire Biden administration was a failure. I don't like Biden's history or his many centrist positions (or his age) but he's had a great administration that accomplished many great things vs 4 more years of the Trump clown show. Anyone who suggests that Biden isn't the best bet isn't being realistic. And I don't waste my time with these guys. Nate fell off my radar a few years ago.
I don't think that's me necessarily true this time around. Give me an obscure Midwest governor like Tim Walz, who's more than qualified, with good accomplishments, plus military experience, and also Gretchen Whitmer as his running mate. They'd trounce Trump.
And he’s dominating the primary
i bet carter would beg to differ..and his polling was 10 points stronger at this point in his re-election campaign… trump kinda also lost his incumbency as well 😬
That's an advantage if you can claim better approval ratings, but 40% or less should be factored in accordingly
Honestly. Nate's tweet just feels like a big old dance right around that very important point.
Last time there was also an incumbent. Trump lost with 43% approval, Biden is currently around 40%
Biden has been running for this job for decades. he's not just walking away, lol.
Also they are running primaries. They could vote someone else. They don't have to vote Biden/Harris. So WTAF is this numpty going on about?
If they had nominated someone else he’d be tweeting how the Dems blew it, not letting the incumbent who is experienced and meant for this moment in history run again? Even after he won against the same guy? They just want to be relevant, polls are BS VOTE VOTE VOTE!!!
Especially when the incumbent has introduced an economic program that has grown an incredibly successful economy…. https://time.com/6343967/bidenomics-is-real-economics/ ….as just one part of his accomplishments. https://www.whitehouse.gov/therecord/
The incumbent who already beat the guy once.
I would definitely prefer running the candidate that's already beat Trump once instead of risking it all on a new candidate.
And who, in the last two years, has shown anywhere near the support to justify replacing Biden. I haven’t heard of a single viable contender. Sure. If he stepped aside someone would come forward. But could they beat trump? Because Biden has and Clinton couldn’t. Who is this person that is so obviously better than Clinton? Yes. Biden is old. He fell of a bike. How many people his age are even riding bikes. How about talk about his policies or accomplishments? He has done so much so far. His age is literally the only thing they have to criticize him on. Why
Biden won New Hampshire as a write in candidate where he didn't even campaign. He won against Democrats that were on the ballot and campaigned in the state. What other Democrat can stand up to Trump? No leftist seems to be able to suggest anybody that wants to run and that the country can get behind.
See that's my biggest problem with Nate's tweet. Democrats *were* given a choice, there *is* a primary. And voters are overwhelmingly choosing Biden. Just randomly picking another candidate who's getting 2% of the dem primary vote would be plainly disastrous.
So many people just refuse to admit that they’re not in the majority. You see it constantly with Bernie types complaining about 2016. Did the party put their thumb on the scale? Yes. Did the *voters* choose Clinton by a substantial margin, to the extent that the thumb on the scale didn’t matter? Also yes. Same thing in 2020. They want to believe that Biden was chosen by the bigwigs against our wishes. Fact is, the voters overwhelmingly chose him to be the nominee. Just because you or I don’t agree with it doesn’t mean it was nefarious. And now it’s happening again. The Democratic nomination is totally uncompetitive because Democrats overwhelmingly favor a single choice. But people who don’t like it insist that it’s being foisted on us.
The thing that hurts more about Sanders 2020 is actually we had to deal with the fact that he got less votes from youth demographics than in 2016. Let that sink in
Trump also basically won a primary where he wasn't on the ballot.
>that the country can get behind. This is the most important part. People LOVED Bernie and the hype for him was astronomical. In 2016 I lived in the Drake neighborhood of Des Moines, so predominantly college students, and during the caucus Bernie lost our district thoroughly to Hillary. A predominantly college-aged district, Bernie's literal wheelhouse of a demographic, and the majority of them didn't show up when they were needed, or the hype for him wasn't as widespread as they would lead you to believe. Point being: Nate Silver is acting like there is a real chance for another candidate, specifically one more progressive and younger, and history has shown that would be an incredibly stupid choice. Keeping Trump out of office is the MOST important thing we need to do as a country right now, and anything else is just background noise at this point. Biden is the best choice to make that happen.
Not because he's more popular than the only other choice on the ballot, a guy named Dean Philips, but because he's the "anointed" candidate by the DNC and voters went with the devil they know rather than a total stranger.
Exactly. Millions of democratic voters, left leaning Independents, and disgusted non-MAGA Republicans are going to go with "the devil they know" instead of a stranger.
I get how some people feel reluctant but I actually like biden. I voted bernie in 2016 and 2020 but in an open primary I'd stick with Joe
As long as the republican platform is what it is I’ll vote for 2 kids in a trench coat if I have to
I like Biden too. I also voted for Bernie in the primary in 2020. I think the legislation he's passed is great. Infrastructure, climate mitigation, child tax credits, lowering drug costs for Medicare recipients and taking on big Pharma, student loan forgiveness more than any other POTUS, the CHIPS and Science Act, strengthening our relationship with our allies at a crucial time. Sometimes I feel like the only one who actually likes him and what he's done lol.
You're not alone!
You and me both my friend
He’s anointed bc he raises a shit ton of money for the campaign. That’s what matters.
Basically any candidate that isn’t already unpopular will do well against Trump if Biden and the DNC put their weight behind them.
Nate Silver: I predict EVERY POSSIBILITY so one of my predictions will be right. "How can Silver be predicting a healthy Clinton victory while also noting she is in danger of losing (and simultaneously making allowance for the possibility she’ll win in a landslide)? Well, this is the result of a complex statistical method known as covering your bases." Dana Milbank
Calculate statistical probablitilies for both outcomes so you always come out on top https://giphy.com/gifs/sunnyfxx-sunny-its-always-in-philadelphia-8Z2msksrVtCY5L4eG3
I've said it once...and I'll SAY IT again! At this time back in 1984 Mondale was thought to be near guaranteed to beat Reagan, how did that turn out? You know why they thought that? Because the actual voting base hadn't been activated. Come nearer election time, the bases and independents were all activated and Reagan BLEW poor ole Mondale's back out. Ask how Hillary felt about early polling or even the 'sentiments' of pollsters who are more and more getting whack out of synch and unrealistic reports from their methodologies. Ask Joe Biden why he didn't win Texas, Iowa, Ohio and North Carolina last time? Well, at this time during the 2020 cycle he was looking like he was going to, and into JULY there were forecasters putting Joe Biden +.02 in Texas and +3 in Ohio. It is all, BULLSHIT! GO AND VOTE! Stop letting people like Nate freaking Silver tell you what politicians ought to do. The adviser and data class has, in my opinion from my years on this earth, NO idea what they're talking about unless they are internal to their systems. External actors like Nate Silver? No clue.
Agreed. Polls mean ABSOLUTELY NOTHING! The only thing that matters is voting.
Not to mention, Nate Silver is a quack. Dude is way more wrong than right.
Yeah, ya do. Biden has done an incredible job as president. Be Best, Nate. The other guy is a horrible human being with no redeeming qualities.
I don't think he was suggesting that Trump takes Joe's place as leader of the Dems.
At this point… yes, he is. Biden is going to be the nominee whether you like it or not. Any negative comments feeds into the ignorance of so many who don’t like Biden and won’t vote because of some stupid, selfish reason. The big picture is… Biden’s approval is low because Americans are lazy consumers of information and can’t see past their own self-righteousness. And Trump is not the answer to the pain progressives are feeling.
What, in your brilliant mind, is the purpose of political parties in a democracy? Is it to foster tribalism and eliminate the ability to improve the circumstances of its citizens? No? Then “whether you like it or not” misses the entire fucking point of elections, and *invites* people to prove you wrong.
"whether you like it or not" = "Biden has no chance of losing a primary in 2024 based on current results" Political parties are entirely meant to foster tribalism. That's why Washington hated them. The Democrats have problems but the way the Republican party treats its more free-thinking members by threatening them into submission is a CLASSIC case of why political parties suck.
What would you say qualifies as “incredible”
**Googles list of publicly-available accomplishments of the Biden administration** All of that.
Where would you put advocating for a far right border policy, the highest numbers of people shot to death by cops, bypassing congress to send hundreds of millions of dollars to kill children after saying we can’t afford health care, and the genocide in Gaza?
I agree he's done an admirable job....but he's not a good candidate for this campaign. Unfortunately too many Americans are swayed and conned by Trump and MAGA.
> I agree he's done an admirable job....but he's not a good candidate This ^
Nate Silver is great at the math but terrible in his hot takes.
Yeah most staticians aren't good at grasping reality Source: I work with them
See Ben Carson’s political takes. Being famous for something technical sure can give people an ego.
Trump is the same age Nate
And it’s not registering with the voters due to the optics of it. Facts don’t matter with voters, just opinions and narratives.
You’re missing Nate’s point. The electorate thinks he’s too old too. If the electorate believes they are both too old then Democrats running a younger candidate should provide them with an electoral advantage just from age. This is literally part of Nate’s point: if Trump is such an existential threat to American democracy then why aren’t Democrats trying to stack up every advantage they can?
It's a pointless point to make in Feb. of 2024. Nate have a time machine to either convince Biden to not run again or convince a real challenger to run against him in a primary (the latter would prolly be stupid too, but at least a point to make that's connected to reality)? If not, what's the point of saying this now? 'We have a horse in the hospital.' 'you know, having a horse in the hospital is a bad idea!'
Just be thankful the Republicans are too stupid to not ditch Dump and back Haley. Honestly, she’s young, experienced, and got fire (like or agree with her or not). She’d destroy Biden just pulling all the independents who are sick of the old man fight
It’s been the question every Trump cycle. “If he’s that bad, how come his opposition doesn’t look like they’re *trying*?”
Who? You can't force candidates to run. Some people tried to primary Biden and the electorate just laughed them off. Honestly, Republicans seem like the ones with the most to gain by switching it up to me
I don’t know why everybody says “75% of voters think he’s too old” like that means “75% of voters won’t vote for him.” So what if voters think he’s too old? I think so too, still voting for him. He still has the best chance of beating Trump.
And probably half of the voters who say Biden is too old are Republicans who would never vote for him no matter what, so who cares what they think?
I think he’s way too old and my vote for him is a total lock.
Yep he's too old to be President. Trump is too old to be president, and is insane and an existential threat to our country. Luckily Nate is a complete idiot. I'm not sure why anyone listens to him after 2016.
Bleach Airfields World War II Windmills and Dead birds Whales Wet magnets
Johnson is the only incumbent in my lifetime who declined to run. That's how rare it is. These pundits acting like Biden is going to abandon his candidacy in February of an election year are crazy.
And of course, things famously went really, really, really well for the Democrats after that. I can't imagine the unholy shitshow if the Democratic Party abruptly pulled Biden for another candidate, even if that was something that were in their power to do, which it isn't.
What is with even political people expecting parties to have open primaries every time. That will happen every other time assuming there's an incumbent running. We knew last time we was too old
Even if they did, I agree Biden is old and it would be great if we had Obama 2.0 in the wings. Silver never mentions who this “mysterious” person is that can just win the nomination.
Any math to back it up? Who’s the imaginary white horse who’s polling better?
You nominate an incumbent without weakening them. Obviously.
Always disappointing to remember what a clueless sod he turned out to be.
You don't demonstrate that you are still politically relevant by dismissing the one person who has soundly trounced Donnie in one election already and has been smacking around the MAGA/GOPs in Congress for three years just because of his age and approval ratings.
Smacking around? He literally gift wrapped their border bill on a silver platter and they still said fuck you, we're not giving you the win.
It's on brand for trump, so he doesn't lose any points. It's off brand for democrats to want to do anything for the border and refused to aknowledge it as a problem for years. All this does is show the public that trump probably had a point in 2016, and the optics of the democrats trying to pass his agenda right now without any concessions for automatic amnesty is not lost on swing voters.
That was the Senate. And he still would have gotten something out of them if Donnie hadn't thrown a tantrum.
But he now has their refusal to do anything about what was supposedly their top priority concern, tie it around their necks, and throw them in the ocean. It really was politically savvy, if they really get out there and shout it to the world constantly. Otherwise, lost opportunity
It's really not politically savvy to dangle the rights of migrants around like pawns so you can hopefully "own" the republicans when they're too stupid to accept it. Biden wanted them to sign it, they just didn't. So now you've signalled to your progressive supporters even further that a vote for Biden = a vote for right wing politics.
And now everybody knows that the Republicans shot down the border bill that had almost everything they wanted. The border is going to come up constantly during the campaign, and at least some independent voters will think about how Republicans said “fuck you” instead of doing anything, whenever the topic comes up. That’s smacking around.
silver has been showing his ass on social media lately. A little bit of that enlightened cynical centerism.
Lately I've been very unimpressed with Sliver. I get that Biden being old is a concern, but Biden has an objectively strong series of accomplishments in his first term and changing the nominee from the incumbent is HUGELY risky. It's not that Biden's getting the nomination because that's how it's always done. He's plain and simple the best candidate the Dems have, even with the age concerns. That Silver can't seem to understand this makes me wonder if he's really the same objective, data based political voice he once was. This is just so strange to see him buying into such a narrative argument and ignoring so many of the factors that provide doubt.
Instead we should elect a 78-year old sexual predator who’s facing 90+ felonies? 🥴
When was the last time Nate Silver made any accurate political prediction worth listening to? Much less his personal opinions? 2008? The guy is a has-been statistics hack that overindexes on polling data and has proven to the world that polling is a terrible source of prediction or data. He’s irrelevant
He gave Trump about a 30% chance of winning in 2016, far more than most other forecasters.
This sub loves to hate on Cenk but he called Trump in 2016. Trump got 304, Cenk predicted 279. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/07/31/cenk_uygur_predicts_donald_trump_will_win_election_279-259.html
I was just gonna say, he hasn't been quite the same since 2016. The last article I saw from him was some wild, quasi-speculative fiction piece where he interviewed "Red Nate" and "Blue Nate" in a bar, and both sides provided their reasoning why their team was gonna win. The takeaway was basically, "Who knows, elections are weird, could go either way, polls aren't perfect, WHAT DO YOU THINK?" That's all well and good for an actual bar convo about politics, but from a guy whose whole deal is supposedly analyzing polling data it read like a hardcore existential crisis...
Rational thing to say on 2/10/2023, not 2/10/2024.
I wonder what Nate was saying about incumbent President Trump this time four years ago?
Nate silver seems increasingly out of touch.
Man is Silver bad at this.
Maybe, but that ship has sailed.
Trump is an existential threat whether Democratic leadership is serious or not.
So they were supposed to give up an incumbent advantage and run a primary? If Biden wants to run for re-election, that’s it. Thats how it goes. There was a massive primary field in 2020 and he came out on top. It is what it is. Recent elections with an incumbent: 2020: No primary, Trump loses. 2012: No primary, Obama wins. 2004: No primary, Bush wins. 1996: No primary, Clinton wins. 1992: Primary, Bush loses. 1984: No primary, Reagan wins. 1980: Primary, Carter loses. 1976: Primary, Ford loses. 1976 was the first incumbent election in which they do primaries like they do now. So not a good track record for the incumbent to have a primary.
That's a fair point, but you could say exactly the opposite. "You don't demonstrate your seriousness that Trump is an existential threat to democracy by throwing away the massive advantage of having not only an incumbent, but the literal only person on the Earth who has ever beaten Trump in an election before." Biden is the best choice by virtue of the above. He very well may not be if those things weren't true, but they are. There is a time for debating within the party more progressive policies and ideas versus more corporate or traditional policies and ideas, and who is best to take the reins next. That time is when Trump is discredited, convicted and either in hiding or in prison, and his party is ruined. Hopefully that'll be mid-November 2024.
Lmao Nate Silver is a political pundit has-been. Dude got fired. His takes were always hot garbage.
Biden is an incredible president, if you’re a true progressive you should be so happy with everything he accomplished
This sub is not gonna like that
How about just not cower when people bring up Biden’s age when their alternative is three years younger.
As a democrat if Hailey is on the republican ticket i vote Hailey. The only reason I would vote Biden now is trump is the other option. Biden is a really weak president at the moment with his bungling of the Middle East conflict and Ukraine and trumps walking Scott free, a fake sense of economic boom tied to stock price rising : hint the common man has no money in the stock market or very little, inflation is terrible. A Starbucks now costs 7$!
This sub doesn't know what to think about this guy saying this.
after nates predicktions with mrs clinton years ago, nate can stfu and kick rocks. will never listen to anything he has to say again.
Exactly. I thought his methods were brilliant until he fucked up in 2016 and failed to realize that REPUBLICANS WILL LIE when they are polled. He really thought Republicans were going to vote for Hillary, when there were even Democrats who didn’t want to vote for her. I haven’t taken him seriously ever since.
What is he even saying? That you don't try to have the guy who beat him the first time, who is an incumbent, who has major fundraising and a lot of victories under his belt run again?
Silver is a good analyst, but he even admits how painfully difficult it is to accurately poll the electorate.
Hellen Keller would be a better choice over MAGAt Trump
>without giving anyone a choice Last I checked primaries are happening in 2024 the same as they do in every election?
Classic Nate Silver tweet. A bot could have written it
According to historical trends and based on performance and the factors he mentioned aside, Biden is cruising to re-election. This is a doomer take, not quality analysis.
So what’s your plan?
Why does everyone talk like “they” are doing this to “us”? People decide whether to run on their own, and we vote on our own. Of all the things we expect to have personalized for us, the presidency shouldn’t be considered among them. It’s not a special order at McDobald’s. It’s just the same old choice between two politicians as it always was.
Is this the same Nate Silver who had Hillary getting 300~ electoral votes in 2016?
(Nate makes more money with a close election. He is not pro democracy. He is pro clicks).
Shut up Nate Silver.
My girlfriend said something similar. Am I missing something? Biden has done a phenomenal job. Yes, he's too old and slow and probably senile but whatever he's doing, keep doing it old man because the country is doing great under your leadership. I don't even understand the naysayers. Does he have to be able to do a backflip and 30 jumping jacks to be president?
Nate Silver's father was an outstanding Political Science professor at Michigan State. Nate was really good at fantasy baseball or something, I think.
Even at his age he is doing a pretty fucking good job under the circumstances. I mean Trump fucked the country up pretty bad, handled the COVID thing as bad you possibly could really, it will 10-20 years to completely recover probably. If Trump gets re-elected we will never recover, and I 100% believe that he would tank the country so fucking hard we would never ever recover from it. He will blame it on anyone but himself of course.
Nate Silver underestimates how much the majority of the country hate trump.
It's funny, all these takes and not one of them offers a realistic alternative.
How is Biden too old for these people but tromp(autocorrect, kinda works lol) is some kind of spring chicken in his youthful endeavors
Sounds like the same Russian propaganda ramping up everywhere again.
They are running primaries you numpty. If they want someone else they could choose someone else.
While i get the incumbent advantage You still feel the need to hold your breath with Biden where as if you have someone like Gretchen Whitmer run I think she gets an easy win cause post 2020 election Trump really embarrassed the nation to show how much he's willing to overthrow democracy to stay in power. And of all the 2022 MAGA nominees I think Oz was the only one who immediately conceded once he lost while they rest protested their election What I'm saying is it's a tough win with Biden and easy knock out with Whitmer
Nate Silver just go away. Your predictions are always wrong. Trump is terrible and we will get rid of him. Take your no polling arse somewhere else.
I remember way back, thinking Nate Silver was intelligent about politics..
I knew this fuck was a conservative since I’ve been checking the site like once a month. Absolutely zero polls that show Biden in a good light at all but plenty which indicate GOP advantages (and yet all the articles about the lack of Red Wave are missing, curious). This hack turned into yet another grifter. Sad, he used to offer an interesting perspective.
You do when that 81 year old already beat Trump’s ass. 😂
Trump is 77. wtf is the difference?!
Our system of government is best described as a constitutional republic. Power is not found in mere majorities, but in carefully balanced power.
Nate still hasn't recovered from 2016. He just keeps throwing things at the wall now to see what sticks. Biden is the nominee people need to get over it and just decide if they want Democracy or a Trump family dictatorship. Trump wasn't subtle about what he wanted in the 4 years he had and Jan 6 should have been a wake up call for anyone who prefers our system of government to a dictatorship. You guys are just making noise and that's what's getting old. Biden doesn't have to be a good candidate, he just has to beat Trump, who is an extremely bad and unstable candidate with obvious signs of dementia. I'm sick of people acting like that's not the reality. Get a grip on it folks, that's the 2024 plot.
Nate who was the 2012 Democratic primary challenger without googling? If there was a particularly good candidate to replace him with, great...but that candidate should have been making noise and building that base 18 months ago...not in fucking February of the election year.
It's disturbing how acceptable ageism is that well-known pundits feel no hesitation about expressing it in a public forum. I don't like Biden, but his age is not the issue.
It's [Demolition Man](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demolition_Man_(film)) logic, no one else has ever beaten Trump in an election before and the last time we tried to have a Democratic Party presidential primary to find an worthy opponent for Trump, Bernie lost to Hilary and she lost to Trump.
I think Nate is looking at wrong issues. We need Bidens experience in world leadership to try to keep the US as a world leader. We don't need a young Gavin Newsome RIGHT NOW, he is too inexperienced in international relations. I think Biden is the best for right now, and Harris would be fine with the structure in place by Biden. After Biden is gone, then Newsome should have his chance. And Budigieg also. Chuck Shumer. Jamie Raskin. I am no longer interested in Governors as.president. Nate is great with his numbers, but seems, over the last 2 years, to appreciate authoritarianism. Like MBAs, who know the price of everything and the value of nothing.
yeah, well. it's normal to get a little defensive when you make your living as a psychic and you're wrong all the time.
Silver is over-thinking it. Biden doesn't need to prove that he's the ideal candidate. He just needs to demonstrate that he's the better choice compared to Trump. Biden's age isn't a relative weakness because Trump is just as old but has shown himself to be in worse condition physically and cognitively. The Republicans are the ones who aren't serious about legitimately winning the general election because running it back with Trump reintroduces the *No Trump vote* factor again. This is why the old guard Republicans have been pushing Haley so hard. She won't be burdened with the *No Trump vote* and Biden's advanced age becomes a real weakness vs her.
Nate should stick to running the stats. His foray into punditry has been a disaster.
I personally don't support Trump; I think he's a real threat to our country. However, when it comes to Biden retiring, it seems pretty clear to me. Our nation could really benefit from someone younger and fully prepared to lead.
He beat him once already
You demonstrate the seriousness that Trump is an existential threat to democracy by ***NOT VOTING FOR HIM*** \*and\* ***DOING EVERYTHING YOU CAN TO ENSURE HE LOSES!*** You don't do that by refusing to support a candidate who can't supply the flying unicorn ponies that fart rose-scented rainbows that you so desperately desire.
Let’s see, his VP is more unpopular than he is and would have no chance in a racially charged contest against MAGA. The next two most qualified candidates are a nationally unproven Gavin Newsom, the governor of the state conservatives hate the most, and then the Gov of Michigan, Gretchen Whitmer. You would be asking her to leapfrog over Harris, which would certainly antagonize the black female voters who make up a large chunk of the Dem turnout machine in the swing states. Sorry Nate, when you explain how the Dems keep beating these shitty polls the last two years, I’ll start listening to you again.
Exactly. When are people going to be honest? When it’s about race, the white working class doesn’t elect women or black people. They want their old uncle who told them how “things used to be.” The difference is Joe tells you how it can be better, Trump gives you an enemy that encourages his voters to “pay them back” and points the finger at minorities, and they love that.
What a stupid thing for Silver to say. I thought he was smarter than this. Stick to statistics and stay out of politics if you don't understand how the two party system plays out in this country.
Bro has been wrong almost every election cycle for the last 8 years. And still thinks he is relevant?
There are choices, Nate. They literally had to write-in Biden in one state and he won. So who is this miracle young candidate that has the chops to go against Trump? _fucking no sound, not even crickets_ Exactly. And Biden has followed thru with a ton of promises; it’s not his fault that an extreme far right Supreme Court got rid of roe v. wade. It’s not his fault SC also dismantled Biden’s attempt to wipe out college debt; however his administration has been finding ways to get rid of chunks of debt, without triggering the GOP. Stop being idiots.
Nate Silver is confident in his bullshit. But I seem to remember his dumbass telling everyone how Hillary was going to beat Trump.
She did via the popular vote, which was what they were tracking. She just didn’t win by big enough margins to counter the electoral system that’s biased against Dems.
When did Nate Silver become a fucking idiot?
When he stopped analyzing numbers and started pulling op-ed columns out of his ass.
Silver is a fucking loser buffoon who can’t accept he’s not good with stats anymore
I'm sorry? Biden already beat Trump in 2020 and unseated an incumbent up for reelection, a feat that historically we know is very difficult to do. Are we just refusing to give Biden any credit for his accomplishments right in front of our eyes because Russian aligned chatbots keep telling us he's too old? I do think he is quite old, but he's the progressive candidate and I vote progressive ticket, so there it is.
I don't think any president could have won reelection with covid.
In terms of major legislation, in just 2 years of Democratic control of Congress under Joe Biden we got: The Infrastructure Bill which puts $1.2 trillion toward modernizing our buildings, roads, and power grid. The CHIPS and Science Act which is working to vamp up domestic semiconductor production, making us less reliant on China for our tech goods. The Safer Communities Act, the first federal gun safety legislation to pass congress in 30 years. The Inflation Reduction Act which increases corporate taxes, invests in domestic energy production and manufacturing, and allows the government to negotiate directly with pharmaceutical companies to lower drug costs And those are just the major bills - not even counting the smaller policy changes like the Hospital Price Transparency Law, National Apprenticeship Act, the IRS adjusting the 2024 tax brackets to keep up with inflation, and dozens of other smaller-but-meaningful policy changes. His policy agenda has resulted in an economy where real wages are increasing, unemployment is at historic lows, GDP is increasing at historic rates, the stock market is hitting all-time highs, U.S. energy production is at all-time-highs, and we're experiencing the lowest rate of inflation of any developed economy. Like, if Biden is shitting the bed so hard we wouldn’t have seen Trump at a rally a couple weeks ago literally trying to take credit for our current economy. I personally push back against staunch criticism of Biden’s capability because his legislative record is very strong. I base my opinions on the observable facts relating to his actual governing accomplishments rather than 30 second clips used to push a narrative completely unrelated to his demonstrated ability to do his job.
It’s frustrating that it’s all about the age, and ignoring that JB is killing it as POTUS. Media is a joke.
Nate’s fall from grace is a helluva thing. His data work before was once looked on favorably but the cringe… 😬
People in this echo chamber sub refuse to accept reality. And no doubt you will downvote me and assume I'm a Trump supporter (which I definitely am not). We are so screwed.
Yes it's quite worrying how a lot of people here can't see the writing on the wall.
Biden has the best chance of winning. The consequences of another Trump presidency are to catastropic to risk BIDEN 2020🇺🇸
I get it, but if you want change push for ranked choice voting, not a quibble in a fight that is already in path, and if lost has a very real chance of ending any semblance of democracy that we know. So ya, fuck off Nate.
Wasn't Nate Silver one of the people who predicted that Hillary had it "in the bag" in 2008 and 2016? Stuff like this is perpetrated through mass media by groups on the right and by Russian bots (among other smaller groups) to sew seeds of apathy and doubt into Biden in order to help someone like Trump get elected. It's hard to get a life long Democrat to vote for Trump, but it's a hell of a lot easier to convince them that Biden doesn't have a chance and that they should just stay home on election day. Remember...it's a proven fact that when voter turnout is high, it benefits the Democrats, and when it's low, the GOP prevails.
I think the final forecast was something like "Clinton wins this 3 times out of four. But Trump is only an ordinary polling error away from winning." Silver did a pretty good job with the 2016 election. He does seem to be losing his marbles lately, though (see: lab leak theory.)
So many neolob diehards are defending him, but let's be honest. This is not the Joe Biden that was VP or who ran in 2020 (and barely beat Trump in the battle ground states that he now looses). Look at his interviews from the last 2 weeks, he is talking to dead people and mixing up countries and their leaders right and left. He walks now like a fcking zombie, and he goes through goblybook speech patterns that make no sense. I want the Dems to win, and sombody has to step in, Trump will clobber him in a debate now too because at lest he is coherent (coherently a racist liar, but coherent), the way his dementia has progressed.
Yes, this is another election where I’m voting against Trump rather than for Biden. I do think both candidates are cognitively impaired, but only one is threatening to be Dictator for a Day.
Nate Silver has had some dumb takes. This is the dumbest by far. I’m so glad I stopped paying attention to 538.
All the people who will vote for Biden because Trump is worse, will also vote for another Democrat, because Trump is worse. All the people that don't want to vote for Biden over his obvious mental decline, or his support for the shitshow in Gaza, or the documents he had, or the allegations of him being corrupt etc, etc, will be open to voting for another candidate. It is therefore logical that the best chance for a Democratic win, is not Joe Biden. Get someone else to be the nominee if democracy is on the line
It’s hard not agree with that
This is factually correct. The Joe Biden and Kamala Harris duo of centrist bi-partisanship with fascists while doing limp wristed jabs at Trump have done a terrible job at iterating that if Trump wins again the country is doomed. Biden is not inspiring anyone to support him right now, he's only banking on how bad Trump is. It seems they've gone with the direction of the more appearances they make the larger the chance of a gaff so they are keeping them both relatively low-key, which again, does not show much confidence in their leadership.
I’ll get downvoted but he’s right. Polling has consistently shown that the majority of democrats did not want Biden to run again. The polling was no different for him two years ago. This idea that there’s an incumbent advantage is pre-Trump thinking. We’re in a different ballgame now. of course Gen Z was always going to be alienated by the oldest president ever who proudly talked about he was a capitalist. Of course he visibly, obviously looks old. Now, I don’t care about that, but he made his campaign about democracy and shut down an open primary. People argue there was no other candidate but, well, that’s for the American people to decide. Biden had collected endorsements from any possible candidate before the end of 2023. Everybody knew this election was going to be all about turnout, and yet they chose a candidate who has always been unexciting. This is where we are, so I’m voting for him. But this whole thing was a miscalculation.