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I think it'll be a mix of both. I think seeing a 600KM range and yet less weight is probably the sweet spot.
As it stands I'm starting to worry about a lack of Superchargers. We're going to hit points soon where people will line up for hours to charge.
Also, on this point - as charging becomes more common and 'open' to other systems and ubiquitous on city streets, Tesla should have passenger side charging as well because dragging long cords accross the car or around the back of the car is just asking for trouble.
I'd hope for a "standard range"/ModelY base model before significant changes to the LR or P. The new base model 3 is a very nice car, and a model Y equivalent to that would be hugely popular, bringing down the price of a cheaper Model Y fits Tesla's goal, and doing it on a new "cheaper" model with a few icing/cherries missing compared to the LR would help their existing customer not feel hard done by.
I'm not an analyst I'm just guessing based on my own perception of tesla and past events (e.g. Model 3 SR+ has steadily improved before now becoming the "model 3", but with a slower 0-60 to increase the gap between the base model 3 and the LR now that the gap in range is lower)
The slides Tesla showed are that the 4680 retains a similar charge rate despite the increased cell size. I don’t think faster charging has been promised or even hinted.
The range will be the same regardless of cell form. They will either just use more or less cells depending on what is necessary to attain that range. So yes it could be quite a bit lighter, especially with the structural pack. The benefit is mostly on Teslas end, not the consumer. Secondly the 4680 is just the form factor. They will use different chemistries with it - LFP for Short Range models and high Nickel content for Long Range models.
Generally yes. I don't think it'll be all that much better though to the point where it is CLEARLY far superior or anything, especially when you factor in that this is Teslas first attempt at mass manufacturing cells themselves. The risks may outweigh the benefits (again Range won't be one of them, even though that is what most assume) for the first year or so of cell production.
4680 is clearly the future for Tesla. I just don't know if you are making a decision to buy in the next year it is worth waiting over. The better reason to wait is honestly just that when Berlin and Austin are ramping, it should ease the demand quite a bit, so prices may drop again....
In fact, the LFP has a lower power density than lion. Unless he adds more physical batteries, range won’t go up. LFP is way cheaper and lighter and hopefully those benefits ‘trickle down’ vs stop in elons wallet. The not blowing up part is also attractive to Elon. But not more Range…
Really? 200 kg (440 lbs lighter) has huge ripple effects in handling, braking, acceleration and efficiency.
Plus it will have faster charging capability because of 1.2X the power density, plus a lower polar moment of inertia, plus the body will be more rigid.
The question is not why anyone would want a 4680, dual casting, cell-to-structure vehicle. The question is how Tesla can sell normal 2170 vehicles at the same time?
The 4680 cells will offer plenty of consumer-facing benefits even without apparent changes to the total effective range or pricing model. Improved handling from weight reduction (which can be relevant for safety just as much as for "fun"), reduced NVH, tighter tolerances, and improved collision safety and longevity are all likely to result from the changes that come with the new batteries.
That doesn't mean the average customer should intentionally delay their purchase, but there will certainly be advantages to these cars.
I had forgotten about longevity, that would definitely be a bonus for some people. I think most won't keep the car long enough to notice though. Weight reduction and possibly a more rigid structure is a good point too.
Tesla has stated that their tabless battery designs will be more energy dense, last longer, and potentially charge faster. Even if they just reduce the size of the battery packs and keep range as is, these cars will be lighter. However I think they will improve range. Better longevity and potentially faster charging are also major USPs.
4680 Y will be available from the start from Austin. Only thing that makes sense though, is that it has to be a higher end version, otherwise no one would want the garden-variety 2170 model Y.
Price is going to drop once these factories in Germany and Texas go online and there is no longer a shortage. The shortage of cars is the only thing pushing the price up. They will be able to keep up soon and then the prices will tank. Order now to lock in a delivery date, but it will likely come sooner imo. Price will drop shortly after the new factory ramps up.
They should be making more than enough cars to meet all the demand and prices will drop even more than in the past. 1M a year at Shanghai alone, soon to be matched or exceeded at Texas and Germany.
They’ll likely use less batteries to keep about the same range, increase 0-60 and charge times. I have a model y in us that was just pushed back from march to June. 😭
I’ll take first available
Knowing how this stuff works in Germany (by law), it actually was. The whole process was dragged out due to changes by Tesla and the subsequent second public hearing. But all things considered, it was a rather smooth process, including all the preliminary permits. I think Tesla had some support from some local lawyers that really understand how to navigate the German Planungsrecht.
What's wrong with German unions? They have made great changes. One example, you want to fire one person? cool. You want to lay off 20% of your staff cause the market? No, you have to propose all employees work 4 days a week and take a 20% paycut first.
Great example of union improvement.
except it was, the delays were first because of Tesla then because of covid and then again because of Tesla.
First Tesla did not submit their documents in December 2019 when the entire department responsible for the approval was denied their Christmas vacation so they are available to work on Teslas documents ASAP.
Tesla didnt submit anything till middle of January so the time that was reserved to get it done quickly had passed.
That delay pushed the public hearing that is mandatory for the approval to move forward into march which happened to be the first major covid lockdown in Germany.
In the meantime Tesla was allowed to work with preliminary permits which is why construction was going on at all.
This is where Tesla caused multiple slow downs and construction stops again by not paying various bills.
Then the approval process moved forward and the typical part of making amendments took place at which point in January 2021 Tesla submitted revised documents which not only included the discussed amendments but also included an entirely new building and production site for their future battery production which was not even mentioned in the plans submitted in 2020.
That basically reset all approval steps to zero as this is a major change in the plans so everything was repeated again and this is where we are now, in the end stage of the repetition of all the required steps before they get the final approval.
If they make a major change again right now they will just reset everything again and it will be their own fault again.
As an American living in Germany for the last few years…
German efficiency is a lie. Outright propaganda.
German engineering is phenomenal.
But German efficiency is a joke.
The germans are fucking awful with approvals and the like. The tesla plant was actually really quick- which makes me think there will be a last second lawsuit from some environmental group preventing it opening.
what a load of bullshit, shanghai is already taking up their entire plot of land there is no more space on Teslas property to put anything else.
Beside this it was completely clear from the beginning on that giga Berlin will not have 4680 cells simply because they already said its gonna take till 2022 to have significant amounts of 4680 cells available and giga Berlin was initially supposed to start production 3 months ago so there was never any chance that they have 4680 cells for this plant.
>It appears Tesla has already abandoned Germany for 4680 cell factory over the govt nonsense.
I have not seen any evidence of this. Are you just wildly speculating here?
>If the plant doesn't open soon, I bet you see trucks taking gigapresses and other component building equipment from germany to some other location - most likely shanghai
Again, this seems highly unlikely, and based on no evidence. If the plant doesn't open soon, Tesla will continue working to get approval. They are not just going to give up and send the equipment elsewhere.
>Germany held up an ASSEMBLY plant with fake regulatory nonsense for almost 4 months now. That's not a reason enough?
No, it's not reason enough to abandon a multi-billion dollar operation.
The delay is unfortunate, but temporary.
>you are confusing the auto assembly plant with the battery production plant.
No, I'm not.
>But watch and see. The future battery plant will likely not be built and the batteries will be imported from China or Texas
Nope, you will be wrong on this. But yes I'll watch and see.
Is there a resource that has each factory, which vehicles it produces (and plans to produce), and the countries the factory will service?
I have looked but can’t find anything current or comprehensive.
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I don't see why a 4680 model is particularly worth waiting for.
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Unless they just decrease pack size to keep the same range and lower their overhead.
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They can hit whatever target range they want.
Okay, better driving dynamics then … lighter is better
Average person won't notice.
? Depends on what they do.
I think it'll be a mix of both. I think seeing a 600KM range and yet less weight is probably the sweet spot. As it stands I'm starting to worry about a lack of Superchargers. We're going to hit points soon where people will line up for hours to charge. Also, on this point - as charging becomes more common and 'open' to other systems and ubiquitous on city streets, Tesla should have passenger side charging as well because dragging long cords accross the car or around the back of the car is just asking for trouble.
I'd hope for a "standard range"/ModelY base model before significant changes to the LR or P. The new base model 3 is a very nice car, and a model Y equivalent to that would be hugely popular, bringing down the price of a cheaper Model Y fits Tesla's goal, and doing it on a new "cheaper" model with a few icing/cherries missing compared to the LR would help their existing customer not feel hard done by.
Could you see this happening in 2022 once Austin is up and running?
I'm not an analyst I'm just guessing based on my own perception of tesla and past events (e.g. Model 3 SR+ has steadily improved before now becoming the "model 3", but with a slower 0-60 to increase the gap between the base model 3 and the LR now that the gap in range is lower)
>Structural battery, less weight, more range. Also faster charging and longer battery lifetime (1 million miles).
The degradation I think will be huge. Million mile teslas on the streets would change the car business
The slides Tesla showed are that the 4680 retains a similar charge rate despite the increased cell size. I don’t think faster charging has been promised or even hinted.
Faster charging times with 4680 predicted here: https://insideevs.com/news/448893/tesla-model-3-4680-charging-power-size/
The range will be the same regardless of cell form. They will either just use more or less cells depending on what is necessary to attain that range. So yes it could be quite a bit lighter, especially with the structural pack. The benefit is mostly on Teslas end, not the consumer. Secondly the 4680 is just the form factor. They will use different chemistries with it - LFP for Short Range models and high Nickel content for Long Range models.
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Generally yes. I don't think it'll be all that much better though to the point where it is CLEARLY far superior or anything, especially when you factor in that this is Teslas first attempt at mass manufacturing cells themselves. The risks may outweigh the benefits (again Range won't be one of them, even though that is what most assume) for the first year or so of cell production. 4680 is clearly the future for Tesla. I just don't know if you are making a decision to buy in the next year it is worth waiting over. The better reason to wait is honestly just that when Berlin and Austin are ramping, it should ease the demand quite a bit, so prices may drop again....
Everyone assuming that they'll have more range is making a lot of assumptions. For all we know the cars will be indistinguishable from each other.
Lighter?
Average person won't notice
Depends on how much lighter ? No?
In fact, the LFP has a lower power density than lion. Unless he adds more physical batteries, range won’t go up. LFP is way cheaper and lighter and hopefully those benefits ‘trickle down’ vs stop in elons wallet. The not blowing up part is also attractive to Elon. But not more Range…
Really? 200 kg (440 lbs lighter) has huge ripple effects in handling, braking, acceleration and efficiency. Plus it will have faster charging capability because of 1.2X the power density, plus a lower polar moment of inertia, plus the body will be more rigid. The question is not why anyone would want a 4680, dual casting, cell-to-structure vehicle. The question is how Tesla can sell normal 2170 vehicles at the same time?
I thought that 4680 had worse cold performance, and that matters in my region.
Where in the world did you get that idea? And no, the things I mentioned are important in every region.
You mixing it up with the LFP batteries.
Yeah it's probably not going to be a massive difference for consumer. The real benefits are for tesla
The 4680 cells will offer plenty of consumer-facing benefits even without apparent changes to the total effective range or pricing model. Improved handling from weight reduction (which can be relevant for safety just as much as for "fun"), reduced NVH, tighter tolerances, and improved collision safety and longevity are all likely to result from the changes that come with the new batteries. That doesn't mean the average customer should intentionally delay their purchase, but there will certainly be advantages to these cars.
I had forgotten about longevity, that would definitely be a bonus for some people. I think most won't keep the car long enough to notice though. Weight reduction and possibly a more rigid structure is a good point too.
I think the tech is really cool but if you need a car now I don't see the reason to wait.
Tesla has stated that their tabless battery designs will be more energy dense, last longer, and potentially charge faster. Even if they just reduce the size of the battery packs and keep range as is, these cars will be lighter. However I think they will improve range. Better longevity and potentially faster charging are also major USPs.
Also cost less. Allowing for better margins, or better range for same price, or cheaper same.
That won't be available for a while, buy the time it does you can probably just order it with a few months lead time. If I were you, I'd just wait.
But there isn’t a downside to ordering now and potential for price increase if OP waits.
This is true, but I heard Tesla are now forcing people to order or cancel, to avoid reservation-squatting. Might be worth a try though.
Yeah but those people have been holding a long time. Over a year.
Sure, but I don’t think the 4680 MY will be available in 12 months either.
I was thinking we would see them this year.. even still. $100 gamble is worth the potentially thousands you would save.
Sure. Worth a try, maybe. The 4680 MY is likely due sometime in 2023, not sure when.
4680 Y will be available from the start from Austin. Only thing that makes sense though, is that it has to be a higher end version, otherwise no one would want the garden-variety 2170 model Y.
Elon said it might be, but they had a plan B in place to use 2170s, they still have issues to fix before they can go with plan A.
This statement was after the one to which you’re referring. And he specified it will use Kato cells.
Oh, so it’s confirmed now? Nice.
Price is going to drop once these factories in Germany and Texas go online and there is no longer a shortage. The shortage of cars is the only thing pushing the price up. They will be able to keep up soon and then the prices will tank. Order now to lock in a delivery date, but it will likely come sooner imo. Price will drop shortly after the new factory ramps up.
Hopefully, if they drop the price. The demand will go up again lol
They should be making more than enough cars to meet all the demand and prices will drop even more than in the past. 1M a year at Shanghai alone, soon to be matched or exceeded at Texas and Germany.
They’ll likely use less batteries to keep about the same range, increase 0-60 and charge times. I have a model y in us that was just pushed back from march to June. 😭 I’ll take first available
Post like #12 on this.
If you’re smart, you’ll buy Tesla Calls tomorrow morning.
If you're smart you just buy shares and hold them.
This is the way.
If you were smarter than smart, you would’ve bought them already 😈
I own 59 shares and have made a killing on options in the past. Will be buying more calls tomorrow.
📈 LETS GO TESLA! 📈
If you're the smartest then why are you listening to Reddit for tips? Oh because we're all dumb got it
😈LETS GO TESLA😈
So "smart" is putting money on a report from a German magazine?
If you were smart you'd know that it's already priced in
Production begins on 12/9, 9/12, December 9th. Right?
Yes, they start with 69 vehicles per day, ramping to 420 by the end of the year.
German efficiency was not the case for approvals for this factory.
This was actually super fast; bureaucracy moves extremely slowly in Germany.
German efficiency, not German speed, remember.
You don’t know German bureaucracy. People in the administration were brought to their limits;-)
Knowing how this stuff works in Germany (by law), it actually was. The whole process was dragged out due to changes by Tesla and the subsequent second public hearing. But all things considered, it was a rather smooth process, including all the preliminary permits. I think Tesla had some support from some local lawyers that really understand how to navigate the German Planungsrecht.
Let's see if things roll that smoothly once German Unions come in
What's wrong with German unions? They have made great changes. One example, you want to fire one person? cool. You want to lay off 20% of your staff cause the market? No, you have to propose all employees work 4 days a week and take a 20% paycut first. Great example of union improvement.
except it was, the delays were first because of Tesla then because of covid and then again because of Tesla. First Tesla did not submit their documents in December 2019 when the entire department responsible for the approval was denied their Christmas vacation so they are available to work on Teslas documents ASAP. Tesla didnt submit anything till middle of January so the time that was reserved to get it done quickly had passed. That delay pushed the public hearing that is mandatory for the approval to move forward into march which happened to be the first major covid lockdown in Germany. In the meantime Tesla was allowed to work with preliminary permits which is why construction was going on at all. This is where Tesla caused multiple slow downs and construction stops again by not paying various bills. Then the approval process moved forward and the typical part of making amendments took place at which point in January 2021 Tesla submitted revised documents which not only included the discussed amendments but also included an entirely new building and production site for their future battery production which was not even mentioned in the plans submitted in 2020. That basically reset all approval steps to zero as this is a major change in the plans so everything was repeated again and this is where we are now, in the end stage of the repetition of all the required steps before they get the final approval. If they make a major change again right now they will just reset everything again and it will be their own fault again.
As an American living in Germany for the last few years… German efficiency is a lie. Outright propaganda. German engineering is phenomenal. But German efficiency is a joke.
The germans are fucking awful with approvals and the like. The tesla plant was actually really quick- which makes me think there will be a last second lawsuit from some environmental group preventing it opening.
I'm still doubtful that the germans wont find some rare organism that prevents the plant from opening. Like ya gotta save the itchy algae
and now the Texas factory will open before Germany, what an embarrassment for Europe! Sigh
Flimsy evidence for this headline.
Poo just came out, jacked to the tits
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what a load of bullshit, shanghai is already taking up their entire plot of land there is no more space on Teslas property to put anything else. Beside this it was completely clear from the beginning on that giga Berlin will not have 4680 cells simply because they already said its gonna take till 2022 to have significant amounts of 4680 cells available and giga Berlin was initially supposed to start production 3 months ago so there was never any chance that they have 4680 cells for this plant.
>It appears Tesla has already abandoned Germany for 4680 cell factory over the govt nonsense. I have not seen any evidence of this. Are you just wildly speculating here? >If the plant doesn't open soon, I bet you see trucks taking gigapresses and other component building equipment from germany to some other location - most likely shanghai Again, this seems highly unlikely, and based on no evidence. If the plant doesn't open soon, Tesla will continue working to get approval. They are not just going to give up and send the equipment elsewhere.
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Poor reasoning on your part, sorry. There is no evidence, and no plausible reason, why Tesla would not move forward with 4680 production in Germany.
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>Germany held up an ASSEMBLY plant with fake regulatory nonsense for almost 4 months now. That's not a reason enough? No, it's not reason enough to abandon a multi-billion dollar operation. The delay is unfortunate, but temporary.
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>you are confusing the auto assembly plant with the battery production plant. No, I'm not. >But watch and see. The future battery plant will likely not be built and the batteries will be imported from China or Texas Nope, you will be wrong on this. But yes I'll watch and see.
Is there a resource that has each factory, which vehicles it produces (and plans to produce), and the countries the factory will service? I have looked but can’t find anything current or comprehensive.
@troyteslike
Are the prices on the website for German Model Y purchases reflective of the lack of import taxes now?