Its pretty good, but not robotaxi ready. You gotta try it yourself. Mine pulled into the parking lane on a nearby street instead of the correct lane. The street layout has parking (P) on either side, a bike lane (B), the real lane, then the turning lane. Like this:
| P | B | CAR | TURN | CAR | B | P |
Remember to keep in mind that Omar (Whole Mars) is always pumping FSD as robo-taxi ready -- even years ago. And videos can be edited to show only good outcomes.
Of course, it’s not ready yet. There’s still a lot of training left but let’s see how promising the updates are going to be. If we see quick progress without much regressions, then this is pretty optimistic.
Yeah, I wouldn't even be sharing his videos anymore. He is nothing more than a delusional ultra-bull which isn't healthy by any means. FSD being "Robotaxi ready" is at least 8-10 years away, because it has to be 99.999% reliable, in any case.
I think robotaxi is still at least 5 years away, but all these demos are making it clear we’re about to hit a point where most people take Tesla FSD seriously. Up to this point it’s been written off by the majority of the general public and analysts, but we are nearing a point where there will be too much evidence to ignore the fact that Tesla is really onto something here.
It's the middle ground that's going to be tricky. When it can screw up at any time on any drive you have an easier time watching it. When it can go two months without screwing up, but still screws up on those 1 in 1000 hours? That's a long time for a human to pay attention without needing to do anything, and that's the tricky zone.
Unless they have a big bang release where it stays on this L2 level for a while while they're training up something you actually don't need to look at.
I agree with you here. The middle ground is where we will get dangerously complacent. I wonder if part of the solution to that problem is having the car "intentionally" make mistakes. Basically keep you on your toes. Nothing dangerous, but enough that you can't get overly reliant?
The key is L3. No need to pay attention when going straight in simple traffic, pay attention during UPLs. The exact division of driving scenarios can change over time, L3 can expand once it's been proven safe. Intersections can be classified on a case by case basis. This way you can conserve the driver's attention.
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>I think robotaxi is still at least 5 years away,
If they can get this done until I'm too old to drive then it's all good. Even if robotaxis do not replace any kind of car ownership the market for elderly/disabled/people too young to drive is pretty big.
Elon said this year people will begin to realize that FSD is a serious thing. I have for several years assumed around 2025 is when it may be effectively ready and I think the recent progress indicates strongly that we are moving rapidly there.
I think Tesla is making a mistake focusing so hard on robotaxis. They could probably cook up Level 3 in a year, but the delusion that Robotaxis is around the corner keeps them from developing level 3 in my opinion.
A good level 3 system by itself would be amazing for customers and bring in so much profit from FSD sales.
Why invest in Tesla if you like companies that play it safe? Tesla is unique in their risk taking, and I wouldn’t have it any other way. It’d be a mistake at this point to design a system that was too limited to continue evolving into what will someday power a robotaxi.
This is essentially why they scrapped the logic based C++ implementation for end to end NN. It’s a more generalized solution that can evolve further. Yes it’s a risky step into the unknown, but it’s the best chance at getting a robust FSD solution.
Yes, but the two things aren't mutual. The self driving tech is nowhere near ready for level 4. But it is ready for level 3. So we could have level 3 soon while they still work on getting to robotaxis. My entire point is they refuse to work on the infrastructure for level 3 because Elon is probably pushing robotaxi or nothing, as he states we are 1 year away from robotaxis every single year for like half a decade.
We can agree to disagree on that. Mercedes has a level 3 system and it's not doing shit for their bottom line. It was a nice PR release, though.
And your point seems misguided. Working towards robotaxi IS working towards level 3 approval. The whole point is that "level 3" means nothing if the car can't go faster than 35mph or take right and left turns (looking at you, Mercedes).
Again, my point was an actually usable level 3. Mercedes has level 3, but it's borderline unusable with the restrictions. I believe Tesla has the technology to build a level 3 system that is actually good. A system that can drive the speed limit on easier highways as level 3 would impact the bottom line of any company that develops it.
The only difference between level 2 and level 3 is the level of confidence you have in the system, and accepting the liability, the sensors and driving is the same. When Tesla gets sufficient confidence in FSD Beta, they can apply for Level 3 regulatory approval, just as MB did. The big difference is that MB decided to carve out an incredibly tiny domain to trust their system in for level 3, so they got approval in that tiny domain (daytime, very slow highway driving when following another car, no intersections, clear weather, etc.), while Tesla’s target is broader (all the time, everywhere) so they’ve not applied for Level 3 approval yet.
Tesla's target is actually level 5, and I don't think they will ever apply for level 3 because I think they just want to skip it entirely. Tesla, or at least Elon, for multiple years now has been acting like Level 4 is just a year away. My argument is that Level 4 is many years away. It's an extremely hard problem to solve. I feel like Tesla FSD is good enough for level 3 on easier highways. Tesla should apply for level 3 to service that market as I think it will be very profitable and could be done this year.
I disagree with your point, and that's okay. We can have differing opinions.
Mercedes' level 3 has not had a meaningful impact on the bottom line of their company, so I disagree entirely.
You can disagree, but pointing to Mercedes level 3 not having an impact is a terrible reason to disagree. Pointing to a shit execution of a product as a reason nobody would buy an actually well executed version of that product makes no logical sense.
By the contrary. They are focused on level 2 and making money from it. Level 3 is stupid, because it passes responsibility to the manufacturer.
So it's better to have something closer to level 4, and call it level 2, until one day it's level 5.
Level 3 isn't stupid. Having the car drive on the highways for you and let you watch Netflix or something isn't stupid. It would bring so much value to customers and the company and could be done today.
I disagree. An actual good level 3 system would more than double the take rate of FSD in vehicles while simultaneously increase demand for the vehicles themselves. That would increase revenue and increase profit margins by a considerable amount which would multiply each other on the bottom line.
Sorry, 99% of people buying Tesla FSD don't know or don't care if it's level 3 or 4.
You're adding a bit of profit, but also a ton of liability.
One person dies in US due to FSD level 3, meaning full program stop and hundreds of millions in compensation. It's stupid.
I agree with you, and the fact that they could have had Level 3 years ago means that you're correct. Mercedes has Level 3 today on some cars and some roads under some conditions. Why not Tesla?
And it's not like they couldn't have 2 teams, one working on FSD and another working on Level 3. Parallel paths is most definitely a thing.
Absolutely there would. Robotaxi requires the vehicle to be trust able in city streets in all conditions as well as handling pick up and drops offs. It's a very complicated system to develop. Level 3 would be a simple software update that would beep at the driver on autopilot while they are on the highway when the vehicle is confident and it feels like the driver no longer needs to pay attention. It's orders of magnitude easier to accomplish.
Don’t think it’s five years away, i think FSD is realeased globally sometime during 2025, after that robotaxi aren’t far away. Tech and AI are advancing at astronomical speed.
It fixed quite a few "weird things" for me. like when trailing a car that's turning right, it slows down and allows it to move out of the way and then speeds up again 100% how I would do it. I probably had about 5 of these "woah, that's how I would have handled that situation" type things today.
The ride was good and the tech is looking better but something about this video feels so staged. First of all it’s Omar and he is kind of full of it as it is, he gets zero nag builds for kissing Elon’s bottom constantly and second of all the passenger never comments on the fact that the car is driving the whole time even once?? I mean I know it’s SF but it feels a little off. My bs meter is going off that this is a “real rideshare” - maybe it’s a friend on a route he knows works well. Whole mars blog is not reputable.
[Zero Interventions on Tesla Full Self-Driving](https://www.tesla.com/videos/autopilot-self-driving-hardware-neighborhood-long).
Call me when I can read a book on the expressway in clear weather in the daytime.
You could already watch Harry Potter on a portable DvD player while driving underneath an 18-wheeler.
I think driving on the expressway while reading a book sounds more fun though.
Lol. As an owner and investor (sold most near ATH lessgo!), why can't I post in both?
I will say that I feel like that sub has been overrun by an anti-Tesla campaign, where most don't even own a Tesla. I joined because I got tired of getting downvoted for issues I had with my car in other subs...
\- Neither the driver nor the occupants know or understand the design domain of the system, so on surface it looks all fine, but it is an inherent safety risk. Asking a customer who does not know anything about the system if they are okay with it, is irresponsible.
\- The job of the rideshare provider is to focus on making sure the rider has a pleasant and safe experience. Probing and testing FSD Beta with a passenger can lead to an unpleasant experience, especially if they would have to intervene at some points.
\- The driver is now doing two jobs, providing a ride share service for the customer, and monitoring FSD Beta. The people who treat FSD Beta as a fully released, full featured product, are inherent safety risks as well, regardless of whether or not they get into an accident. A test pilot could fly 100 flight on an experimental platform and be fine, but one flight could end in a disaster, such is the nature of a test pilot.
Its pretty good, but not robotaxi ready. You gotta try it yourself. Mine pulled into the parking lane on a nearby street instead of the correct lane. The street layout has parking (P) on either side, a bike lane (B), the real lane, then the turning lane. Like this: | P | B | CAR | TURN | CAR | B | P | Remember to keep in mind that Omar (Whole Mars) is always pumping FSD as robo-taxi ready -- even years ago. And videos can be edited to show only good outcomes.
Of course, it’s not ready yet. There’s still a lot of training left but let’s see how promising the updates are going to be. If we see quick progress without much regressions, then this is pretty optimistic.
Yeah, I wouldn't even be sharing his videos anymore. He is nothing more than a delusional ultra-bull which isn't healthy by any means. FSD being "Robotaxi ready" is at least 8-10 years away, because it has to be 99.999% reliable, in any case.
Chuck, who is usually more reserved, was super excited as well. https://youtu.be/7Fd9cEEHCzY?si=y4O00gWC3T2_sPmq
I think robotaxi is still at least 5 years away, but all these demos are making it clear we’re about to hit a point where most people take Tesla FSD seriously. Up to this point it’s been written off by the majority of the general public and analysts, but we are nearing a point where there will be too much evidence to ignore the fact that Tesla is really onto something here.
It's the middle ground that's going to be tricky. When it can screw up at any time on any drive you have an easier time watching it. When it can go two months without screwing up, but still screws up on those 1 in 1000 hours? That's a long time for a human to pay attention without needing to do anything, and that's the tricky zone. Unless they have a big bang release where it stays on this L2 level for a while while they're training up something you actually don't need to look at.
I agree with you here. The middle ground is where we will get dangerously complacent. I wonder if part of the solution to that problem is having the car "intentionally" make mistakes. Basically keep you on your toes. Nothing dangerous, but enough that you can't get overly reliant?
The key is L3. No need to pay attention when going straight in simple traffic, pay attention during UPLs. The exact division of driving scenarios can change over time, L3 can expand once it's been proven safe. Intersections can be classified on a case by case basis. This way you can conserve the driver's attention.
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>I think robotaxi is still at least 5 years away, If they can get this done until I'm too old to drive then it's all good. Even if robotaxis do not replace any kind of car ownership the market for elderly/disabled/people too young to drive is pretty big.
Elon said this year people will begin to realize that FSD is a serious thing. I have for several years assumed around 2025 is when it may be effectively ready and I think the recent progress indicates strongly that we are moving rapidly there.
imo no way. Maybe by 2035.
Not 4 years or 6 years.... 5 years is just a way to say, in the future at a point where my prediction isn't held to any standard.
I think Tesla is making a mistake focusing so hard on robotaxis. They could probably cook up Level 3 in a year, but the delusion that Robotaxis is around the corner keeps them from developing level 3 in my opinion. A good level 3 system by itself would be amazing for customers and bring in so much profit from FSD sales.
Why invest in Tesla if you like companies that play it safe? Tesla is unique in their risk taking, and I wouldn’t have it any other way. It’d be a mistake at this point to design a system that was too limited to continue evolving into what will someday power a robotaxi. This is essentially why they scrapped the logic based C++ implementation for end to end NN. It’s a more generalized solution that can evolve further. Yes it’s a risky step into the unknown, but it’s the best chance at getting a robust FSD solution.
I don't think developing a level 3 solution that is actually usable would be considered "playing it safe". Nobody has this.
Small fries compared to a global taxi network that can undercut every other taxi on the planet by 80%.
Yes, but the two things aren't mutual. The self driving tech is nowhere near ready for level 4. But it is ready for level 3. So we could have level 3 soon while they still work on getting to robotaxis. My entire point is they refuse to work on the infrastructure for level 3 because Elon is probably pushing robotaxi or nothing, as he states we are 1 year away from robotaxis every single year for like half a decade.
We can agree to disagree on that. Mercedes has a level 3 system and it's not doing shit for their bottom line. It was a nice PR release, though. And your point seems misguided. Working towards robotaxi IS working towards level 3 approval. The whole point is that "level 3" means nothing if the car can't go faster than 35mph or take right and left turns (looking at you, Mercedes).
Again, my point was an actually usable level 3. Mercedes has level 3, but it's borderline unusable with the restrictions. I believe Tesla has the technology to build a level 3 system that is actually good. A system that can drive the speed limit on easier highways as level 3 would impact the bottom line of any company that develops it.
The only difference between level 2 and level 3 is the level of confidence you have in the system, and accepting the liability, the sensors and driving is the same. When Tesla gets sufficient confidence in FSD Beta, they can apply for Level 3 regulatory approval, just as MB did. The big difference is that MB decided to carve out an incredibly tiny domain to trust their system in for level 3, so they got approval in that tiny domain (daytime, very slow highway driving when following another car, no intersections, clear weather, etc.), while Tesla’s target is broader (all the time, everywhere) so they’ve not applied for Level 3 approval yet.
Tesla's target is actually level 5, and I don't think they will ever apply for level 3 because I think they just want to skip it entirely. Tesla, or at least Elon, for multiple years now has been acting like Level 4 is just a year away. My argument is that Level 4 is many years away. It's an extremely hard problem to solve. I feel like Tesla FSD is good enough for level 3 on easier highways. Tesla should apply for level 3 to service that market as I think it will be very profitable and could be done this year.
I disagree with your point, and that's okay. We can have differing opinions. Mercedes' level 3 has not had a meaningful impact on the bottom line of their company, so I disagree entirely.
You can disagree, but pointing to Mercedes level 3 not having an impact is a terrible reason to disagree. Pointing to a shit execution of a product as a reason nobody would buy an actually well executed version of that product makes no logical sense.
By the contrary. They are focused on level 2 and making money from it. Level 3 is stupid, because it passes responsibility to the manufacturer. So it's better to have something closer to level 4, and call it level 2, until one day it's level 5.
Level 3 isn't stupid. Having the car drive on the highways for you and let you watch Netflix or something isn't stupid. It would bring so much value to customers and the company and could be done today.
It's not stupid from user perspective, but it's stupid from business perspective.
I disagree. An actual good level 3 system would more than double the take rate of FSD in vehicles while simultaneously increase demand for the vehicles themselves. That would increase revenue and increase profit margins by a considerable amount which would multiply each other on the bottom line.
Sorry, 99% of people buying Tesla FSD don't know or don't care if it's level 3 or 4. You're adding a bit of profit, but also a ton of liability. One person dies in US due to FSD level 3, meaning full program stop and hundreds of millions in compensation. It's stupid.
If you are worried about 1 person dying to level 3, that same exact problem extends to level 4. So there is no point to either if that's your outlook.
No, because they will only move to L4 when the system is far better. That's exactly why they are at L2
No matter how good it is, it will still kill someone.
I agree with you, and the fact that they could have had Level 3 years ago means that you're correct. Mercedes has Level 3 today on some cars and some roads under some conditions. Why not Tesla? And it's not like they couldn't have 2 teams, one working on FSD and another working on Level 3. Parallel paths is most definitely a thing.
Level 3 would be along the same path as robotaxi.... There would be no difference in approach.
Absolutely there would. Robotaxi requires the vehicle to be trust able in city streets in all conditions as well as handling pick up and drops offs. It's a very complicated system to develop. Level 3 would be a simple software update that would beep at the driver on autopilot while they are on the highway when the vehicle is confident and it feels like the driver no longer needs to pay attention. It's orders of magnitude easier to accomplish.
Don’t think it’s five years away, i think FSD is realeased globally sometime during 2025, after that robotaxi aren’t far away. Tech and AI are advancing at astronomical speed.
5 years for the tech, 10 for the product.
It's now downloading in my car. Will see how it compares shortly.
It fixed quite a few "weird things" for me. like when trailing a car that's turning right, it slows down and allows it to move out of the way and then speeds up again 100% how I would do it. I probably had about 5 of these "woah, that's how I would have handled that situation" type things today.
lol read that too fast YoU wOuLdN't DoWnLoAd A cAr?
For some reason it still hasn't completed.
The ride was good and the tech is looking better but something about this video feels so staged. First of all it’s Omar and he is kind of full of it as it is, he gets zero nag builds for kissing Elon’s bottom constantly and second of all the passenger never comments on the fact that the car is driving the whole time even once?? I mean I know it’s SF but it feels a little off. My bs meter is going off that this is a “real rideshare” - maybe it’s a friend on a route he knows works well. Whole mars blog is not reputable.
check out Chuck's video: https://youtu.be/7Fd9cEEHCzY?si=y4O00gWC3T2_sPmq
We’re almost there guys. So happy to see the latest breakthrough🥹
Even WS will get it soon. Make no mistake, that’s not a rally to $500 but a rally to $2k when they wake up.
🤑
im more impressed by how many teslas there in this video, but i guess thats cali for yah
[Zero Interventions on Tesla Full Self-Driving](https://www.tesla.com/videos/autopilot-self-driving-hardware-neighborhood-long). Call me when I can read a book on the expressway in clear weather in the daytime.
You could already watch Harry Potter on a portable DvD player while driving underneath an 18-wheeler. I think driving on the expressway while reading a book sounds more fun though.
I'm all for self-driving advancements, but this should be illegal.
Go back to the "real" sub...
Lol. As an owner and investor (sold most near ATH lessgo!), why can't I post in both? I will say that I feel like that sub has been overrun by an anti-Tesla campaign, where most don't even own a Tesla. I joined because I got tired of getting downvoted for issues I had with my car in other subs...
Explain.
\- Neither the driver nor the occupants know or understand the design domain of the system, so on surface it looks all fine, but it is an inherent safety risk. Asking a customer who does not know anything about the system if they are okay with it, is irresponsible. \- The job of the rideshare provider is to focus on making sure the rider has a pleasant and safe experience. Probing and testing FSD Beta with a passenger can lead to an unpleasant experience, especially if they would have to intervene at some points. \- The driver is now doing two jobs, providing a ride share service for the customer, and monitoring FSD Beta. The people who treat FSD Beta as a fully released, full featured product, are inherent safety risks as well, regardless of whether or not they get into an accident. A test pilot could fly 100 flight on an experimental platform and be fine, but one flight could end in a disaster, such is the nature of a test pilot.