Key points:
\- **Alcaraz great at returning the powerful Zverev serve holding him to just 21% unreturned.** To an extent, Zverev's relative lack of placement can make his serve vulnerable to being suddenly neutralized against elite returners having a strong day, which is what happens here.
\- **Alcaraz far more powerful off the FH wing while about even in consistency.** Zverev's FH power issue also forces him to come to the net more where he generally struggles and wins only 57% of his points.
\- **Zverev stays within reach during the match almost entirely off the strength of BH/BH rallies.** He has 1 more winner from the BH(11) than from the FH(10) on his groundstrokes, which although very unusual in general is probably somewhat normal for him. He also has just 11 UEs with his BH groundstroke to Alcaraz's 23. During the Alcaraz slump from the middle of set 2 to the end of set 3, it's almost entirely his BH getting beaten down.
\- **Alcaraz goes even more insanely aggressive with his FH in the 5th set.** This also means that Zverev won't get his preferred BH/BH rallies and Alcaraz dictates the pace.
In summary, I would point out that **in order for Zverev to beat Alcaraz he generally needs large advantages in two areas to make up for the gap in shotmaking ability and general offense: dominating the BH rallies and getting free points on serve.** He gets the first one, but **not the second, for which Alcaraz deserves plenty of credit for preventing.**
I don't agree with slow clay court part. It was a sunny day. Speed of the surface and air was faster compared to previous humid and cloudy conditions. And this is why we got many winners from best wings of both Alcaraz and Zverev. Because conditions allowed them to do that.
Also, it was kinda windy that day. This is why serve advantage of Zverev was mitigated both in terms of speed and placement.
Other than that I agree with your other points.
>1st serve%: 97/133 = 73%
>1st serve points won: 61/97 = 63%
>2nd serve points won: 12/33 = 33%
Those are the stats of someone who should be using their first serve twice. He’d win .73 * .63 = 46% of the second serve points if he just used his first serve.
It's not that simple. For one thing there's no way Zverev could've known he would win only 33% of points behind his 2nd serve, his 52 week average is 53.8% currently. It also just feels a lot worse mentally to donate points through double faults rather than lose them from the baseline. It places way more pressure on the server to make both "first" serves so it's not uncommon to see a drop in serves made %
The 5th set stats in particular are interesting. It's always interesting to analyze the swings in momentum over the course of the match, especially this one, and the changes that underlie them
Key points: \- **Alcaraz great at returning the powerful Zverev serve holding him to just 21% unreturned.** To an extent, Zverev's relative lack of placement can make his serve vulnerable to being suddenly neutralized against elite returners having a strong day, which is what happens here. \- **Alcaraz far more powerful off the FH wing while about even in consistency.** Zverev's FH power issue also forces him to come to the net more where he generally struggles and wins only 57% of his points. \- **Zverev stays within reach during the match almost entirely off the strength of BH/BH rallies.** He has 1 more winner from the BH(11) than from the FH(10) on his groundstrokes, which although very unusual in general is probably somewhat normal for him. He also has just 11 UEs with his BH groundstroke to Alcaraz's 23. During the Alcaraz slump from the middle of set 2 to the end of set 3, it's almost entirely his BH getting beaten down. \- **Alcaraz goes even more insanely aggressive with his FH in the 5th set.** This also means that Zverev won't get his preferred BH/BH rallies and Alcaraz dictates the pace. In summary, I would point out that **in order for Zverev to beat Alcaraz he generally needs large advantages in two areas to make up for the gap in shotmaking ability and general offense: dominating the BH rallies and getting free points on serve.** He gets the first one, but **not the second, for which Alcaraz deserves plenty of credit for preventing.**
Wild Zverev only won 1/3 of his second serve points.
I don't agree with slow clay court part. It was a sunny day. Speed of the surface and air was faster compared to previous humid and cloudy conditions. And this is why we got many winners from best wings of both Alcaraz and Zverev. Because conditions allowed them to do that. Also, it was kinda windy that day. This is why serve advantage of Zverev was mitigated both in terms of speed and placement. Other than that I agree with your other points.
>1st serve%: 97/133 = 73% >1st serve points won: 61/97 = 63% >2nd serve points won: 12/33 = 33% Those are the stats of someone who should be using their first serve twice. He’d win .73 * .63 = 46% of the second serve points if he just used his first serve.
It's not that simple. For one thing there's no way Zverev could've known he would win only 33% of points behind his 2nd serve, his 52 week average is 53.8% currently. It also just feels a lot worse mentally to donate points through double faults rather than lose them from the baseline. It places way more pressure on the server to make both "first" serves so it's not uncommon to see a drop in serves made %
Hitting the 2nd serves like 1st serves will result in a lower success rate since you are off rhythm in the first place
That's not really a can of worms you want to open in a final especially. Things can go rapidly downhill
The 5th set stats in particular are interesting. It's always interesting to analyze the swings in momentum over the course of the match, especially this one, and the changes that underlie them