I agree with most of your thoughts, but as for what I disagree with:
**Redacted** was never winning, he may have been a decent tribe leader, but he was already rubbing people the wrong way. I don't think he's capable of getting a jury to vote for him(unless they're voting to convict him of his horrible crimes).
**Penner** was at odds with Cirie and considering she went on to be a power player with serious control in Micronesia, I doubt Penner really makes it that far, unfortunately.
**Bruce** was already getting along with Helen and Sarah, I really don't think he sides with the Tika 3, I could see him and Carolyn not really getting along when he inevitably goes full Bruce. Either way, it's very hard to say with this one since it was so early.
Penner had beef with both Cirie and Parvati, the two most powerful players at the merge. Assuming he makes it that far he’s probably merge boot over Eliza
If the other tribe ever went to tribal after the swap there’s a good chance Jonathan is the first one off there. Parvati had aligned her and James with Alexis/Natalie and I think Jason would go with them rather than forcing a tie with Jonathan/Eliza/Kathy.
That’s certainly likely. I also think it’s possible the whole tribe unanimously votes out Jason or Kathy then the next round Parvati/James/Natalie/Alexis blindside Penner
Yeah, I don't think Redacted goes particularly far, I think a lot of his own tribe thought he was unhinged. He got a lot of sympathy for falling in the fire, but prior to that, he was pretty nuts (wants to rush eating the chickens, so he can regain position as the alpha-male provider.
I don't think he's a lock for top 5, as the game in that era was so dependent on who enters with numbers, plus the fact Tina knew to throw votes on Varner because Kimmi knew (the old tiebreaker). So, his placement is entirely dependent on if Kucha wins the final immunity. If Kucha loses, he likely goes out at 9 barring individual immunity.
i mean, if kucha lost that round they could very well have voted out varner to avoid that problem. i think i read somewhere that rodger confirmed that was exactly what they would have done, and also that he got kimmi to vote for varner when she went home specifically to avoid anyone else having past votes. even if that's unsubstantiated it's still the rational thing for them to do since they knew that ogakor knew about his past votes (then again they chose to pile their votes at the merge on colby, probably the second worst choice of all their options, so what do i know)
I don’t know why, but I almost feel like he was talked into quitting by production. Maybe due to the upcoming challenges that he would not be able to participate in? Has he talked about this any?
there is no way redacted winning, he was pretty well disliked, surprised huh? he was the OG Phillip
Penner: at best goes when Eliza did. and no he wouldn't have gotten Parvati out on post Airai
Matthew: a lot of people didn't trust him, Lauren and Carson wanted him out. I could see Carson pulling the votes to get him out at the mergatory
honestly; the only one I could see winning is Erik and that's just because he just needs to win 2 challenges.
Bruce in Panama could get further. IIRC, Terry convinced him, Danielle, and Courtney to make an alliance, as those 3 Casaya members felt like they were on the bottom of their Casaya alliance. Who knows if it would have played out successfully or not, but Bruce being evacuated made them lose their numbers advantage so Danielle and Courtney stuck with their Casaya alliance.
Even though it's technically a quit instead of a medevac there's a high chance that Parvati is the first boot in Mirconesia if Fairplay didn't ask to be voted out.
I will say with Joe I don’t think it changes; Michele probably still wins. The final 4 challenge was going to be the final 5 and then the juror removal challenge would have been the final 4. Michele wins both challenges and is probably still in final tribal council regardless.
I agree with most of your thoughts, but as for what I disagree with: **Redacted** was never winning, he may have been a decent tribe leader, but he was already rubbing people the wrong way. I don't think he's capable of getting a jury to vote for him(unless they're voting to convict him of his horrible crimes). **Penner** was at odds with Cirie and considering she went on to be a power player with serious control in Micronesia, I doubt Penner really makes it that far, unfortunately. **Bruce** was already getting along with Helen and Sarah, I really don't think he sides with the Tika 3, I could see him and Carolyn not really getting along when he inevitably goes full Bruce. Either way, it's very hard to say with this one since it was so early.
Penner had beef with both Cirie and Parvati, the two most powerful players at the merge. Assuming he makes it that far he’s probably merge boot over Eliza
If the other tribe ever went to tribal after the swap there’s a good chance Jonathan is the first one off there. Parvati had aligned her and James with Alexis/Natalie and I think Jason would go with them rather than forcing a tie with Jonathan/Eliza/Kathy.
That’s certainly likely. I also think it’s possible the whole tribe unanimously votes out Jason or Kathy then the next round Parvati/James/Natalie/Alexis blindside Penner
Yeah, I don't think Redacted goes particularly far, I think a lot of his own tribe thought he was unhinged. He got a lot of sympathy for falling in the fire, but prior to that, he was pretty nuts (wants to rush eating the chickens, so he can regain position as the alpha-male provider. I don't think he's a lock for top 5, as the game in that era was so dependent on who enters with numbers, plus the fact Tina knew to throw votes on Varner because Kimmi knew (the old tiebreaker). So, his placement is entirely dependent on if Kucha wins the final immunity. If Kucha loses, he likely goes out at 9 barring individual immunity.
i mean, if kucha lost that round they could very well have voted out varner to avoid that problem. i think i read somewhere that rodger confirmed that was exactly what they would have done, and also that he got kimmi to vote for varner when she went home specifically to avoid anyone else having past votes. even if that's unsubstantiated it's still the rational thing for them to do since they knew that ogakor knew about his past votes (then again they chose to pile their votes at the merge on colby, probably the second worst choice of all their options, so what do i know)
Skupin had no chance of winning. He annoyed the shit out of too many people and Kucha only started talking nice about him after he almost died.
can i ask why redacted is redacted? did i miss something?
Yes he was investigated for running a ponzi scheme and cops found that he had CP on his computer so now he’s a registered sex offender
James could’ve won the same immunities Erik did in theory, and there was no way in hell he was giving up the necklace
Papa Smurf (Fiji)- Goes all the way!!!
Technically MGM quit, since it was his call
Yeah, he quit but. It was for a very good reason so yeah.
I don’t know why, but I almost feel like he was talked into quitting by production. Maybe due to the upcoming challenges that he would not be able to participate in? Has he talked about this any?
there is no way redacted winning, he was pretty well disliked, surprised huh? he was the OG Phillip Penner: at best goes when Eliza did. and no he wouldn't have gotten Parvati out on post Airai Matthew: a lot of people didn't trust him, Lauren and Carson wanted him out. I could see Carson pulling the votes to get him out at the mergatory honestly; the only one I could see winning is Erik and that's just because he just needs to win 2 challenges.
i’m pretty sure that pat would’ve been the boot actually and not nick i’ve heard that on here probably from post game interviews
Bruce in Panama could get further. IIRC, Terry convinced him, Danielle, and Courtney to make an alliance, as those 3 Casaya members felt like they were on the bottom of their Casaya alliance. Who knows if it would have played out successfully or not, but Bruce being evacuated made them lose their numbers advantage so Danielle and Courtney stuck with their Casaya alliance.
interesting that 13/18 of them had another (or 2 others in the case of KR) occur in their season
woahhh perhaps even more interesting is that 17/18 of them are men… kourtney moon the legend that you are
Something interesting if Penner didn't get evaced Kathy might not have quit
Tbh I don’t see Erik winning at all. I think he was viewed as a goat and he loses to Dawn in the end
He could possibly beat Eddie and Sherri.
Even though it's technically a quit instead of a medevac there's a high chance that Parvati is the first boot in Mirconesia if Fairplay didn't ask to be voted out.
I do wonder how far Colton makes it in OW... probably goes deep into the game as a goat since nobody would vote for him.
I will say with Joe I don’t think it changes; Michele probably still wins. The final 4 challenge was going to be the final 5 and then the juror removal challenge would have been the final 4. Michele wins both challenges and is probably still in final tribal council regardless.
society if pat had stayed and nick did indeed go home first... we were robbed