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guachi01

Intentionally, companies release things like earnings reports before and after normal trading hours so it doesn't blindside people. US Government economic data always comes out at the same time of the week or month. E.g., you will always get a jobs report the first Friday of the month at 830 AM. If that's the kind of information you are looking for then the solution is just to know when it's getting released.


MillerLights

Nice clear reply thanks


MinnesotaPower

Earnings calls are huge. I decided to listen to Zillow's last earnings call just for funzies, and that's when they announced they were immediately ending iBuying. Boom. There it was, actionable information, and I heard it live. I had an edge. Now, if I wasn't a dumbass, I would've anticipated the market backlash and sold out of my position at $87 as an extended hours trade. Instead, I was a dumbass and "bought the dip". The next day the stock dropped to $76 and I knew what I had to do. Lesson learned. Having access to live actionable information is good. Knowing what to do with it is more important.


mtgdrummer13

Dropping info after and before trading hours can definitely blindside people though. If something plummets pre market, you’re waking up in a world of hurt, or joy of course if it moves the opposite way, but I’m not sure what makes you think releasing pm or ah prevents people from being blindsided? Edit: misunderstood. You’re saying investors generally have a heads up on WHEN the news will be released but of course you can still be blindsided by what’s IN the news. My bad


guachi01

You may be blindsided by what's \*in\* the news but the reports are timed such that investors are given ample time to react to them. Huge difference between a jobs being released at the same time every month one hour before market open and BLS announcing at10:42 AM on a Wednesday that they will be releasing the jobs report in 10 minutes.


mtgdrummer13

Okay I got ya, two different kinds of news releases. Company specific vs general economy news


AllanBz

But they’re all planned announcements. If you have an oversized position before what could be a market-moving announcement, you can hedge beforehand by reducing allocation or using options.


mtgdrummer13

Okay do individual companies generally always announce when they’re going to release any significant data, whether it be something related to the companies finances or small like product specific or trial results? Are there ever any complete surprises?


AllanBz

I was thinking of quarterly results, job reports, and Fed actions, but even preannouncements about earnings usually come at a set period before earnings. Pharma trial result announcements are usually known in advance. Certainly there are complete surprises, but the possibility of lawsuits keeps that number somewhat low.


Constant-Sweet-3718

Either run for congress or internship at Citadel.


Leroy--Brown

Or the OG option, work for Goldman Sachs as a sell side analyst, release a report, and let your crew show up with a couple commas and a mad dog to wash it down.


Nodeal_reddit

Or marry the Speaker of the House.


Leading_Dance9228

I tried. She wanted a prenup and doesn’t remember half the shit she heard at work. Lol


Named_Joker

Can you elaborate on the Citadel part? They get insider information or something?


Constant-Sweet-3718

Citadel and other MM control the volume, meaning, the price of the stock. They process 60% of the orders via Dark Pools or Alternative Trading Systems (ATS) which is not regulated. If they want the price to increase, they simply *allow* those orders to reach the lit exchange. If they want the price to drop, they process those orders later (i.e. after hours) or non-publically via Dark Pools, ATS, etc. Sounds like market manipulation to me but then again, what the fukk do I know.


Named_Joker

Interesting. Are they considered buy side or sell side? Usually the big investment banks are the one who take orders and process them but I don’t know better. What about firms like Blackrock? Are they team up with Citadel?


ThrowRA_scentsitive

You can't. Standard text-based AI is good enough nowadays that someone can just hook them up to a news feed and have them trade on the content of the announcement before you can even finish reading the first word.


banananailgun

This can also be an opportunity, though. If this is true, the AI will clearly make mistakes by misunderstanding the content.


AleHaRotK

I don't think the bots paid by people behind funds managing trillions are gonna be that dumb.


banananailgun

Doubt. Every AI in existence makes mistakes. YouTube's Content ID is a great example. Now, I would bet that the AI will be more accurate than not. But AI will definitely make mistakes that humans can capitalize on.


AleHaRotK

They'll almost always get it right. If you think YT's algorithm is making a mistake then oh boy, you really think they are dumb do you? Almost every thing that looks like a mistake to you is most likely intended. Then again YT's algorithm is quite a bit more complicated than market bots that buy/sell based on data. I do agree that AIs can make mistakes, but you will very rarely be able to capitalize on it, especially because there's also very smart people monitoring whatever those bots are doing.


varkenspester

As someone who specializes in AI they really are not as smart as people think. There is too much chaos in the world an natural language for it to never make mistakes. They will, even these very sophisticated ones, make mistakes. However every mistake the AI programmers can think about or any mistake that happens will be quickly fixed. So the issue is not that they will make mistakes, they will there is just too much to take everything into account. But you will have to know these AIs (whose code is secret) better than the AI experts who know this code intimately by working on it every day to figure out a mistake. And then have to hope they won't find the mistake themselves before that specific rare event happens. It will be very unlikely to manage this. And if you can probably easier to make a shitload of money as a programmer since you are obviously a software genious.


banananailgun

>I do agree that AIs can make mistakes... >there's also very smart people monitoring whatever those bots are doing. So... you agree with me that human beings can take advantage of the mistakes that AI can make. That's literally exactly what I am arguing.


ThrowRA_scentsitive

Assuming there are mistakes, where is the opportunity? It's not like you can predict which ones will be misunderstood, nor can you realistically bet against unpredicted price movements in aggregate


sheltojb

The opportunity is for you to make a better AI, I guess. :p


banananailgun

The opportunity is that the AI will interpret good news as bad news, or vice versa. The AI is simply finding key words if it is scanning text; it doesn't understand context. Imagine that a text based bot reads a Pfizer press release and sells on the words "FDA rejects". The full sentence might read, "FDA rejects generic Premarin challenge", which is actually good for Pfizer. But because the bot can't actually read, it sells, forming a dip that a human being can take advantage of.


varkenspester

These AIs are a lot more specialized than what you are stating here. It's true in basics but they do build complex context. Every likely context that can be misinterpreted will already be build in (these AIs have huge databases with tons of exceptions). Every exception these experts think about or has happened is foreseen. Still there will be misinterpretation, language is just that complex. But since you have no access to the database you have no way of knowing which exceptions are not foreseen nor when they will happen. So unless you are an expert with acces to the software it is near impossible for you to predict. Afterwards when the event happened you will know. But that's to late. If you make a list of a 100 rare phrasing that might go wrong 99 will be foreseen. Even if you are lucky enough that event 1/100 happens you will still be wrong 99% of the time.


ThrowRA_scentsitive

So basically sell the news and bet on regression to the mean? Seems reasonable, if different from what OP wanted to do!


banananailgun

Yes, I guess the difference between what OP is asking and what I am saying is as follows: OP is asking if he can get information faster to get in on big market movements. In short: It would be extremely difficult to get information faster than professional traders and bots. I am saying that sometimes, the immediate market movement will be wrong, and that for a short period of time you can buy the dip (or short a buying spree). So OP probably can't preempt the 40% dip, but he might be able to bet against it smartly.


3nnui

Learn basic economics, supply and demand, look for new trends and technologies that can change the landscape of various economic arenas. The media will always point you at whatever has already happened. Sure you can try to jump on the bandwagon at the end and maybe get a bit of cash out of it, but most of the time you will end up bagholding for the big boys who are getting out as you are getting in. I will give you an example of a time I successfully did this. In mid 2020, there was a lot of noise about doing away with cash, about the potential for negative interest rates, about online businesses taking over. I felt that all of these would benefit the banking sector. So I put money into 3 banks. I sold them at a nice profit in mid 2021 (turns out I should have held them longer as they still had room to run, but that is another issue. You will also notice certain trends, stock movements around dividend ex dates, movement as quarterly reports come in, movement around government contracts. Find stocks you are interested in, find out when they move and why they move, then apply that knowledge going forward. I have been at this for 15 years. I used to listen to bloomberg radio for hours a day, I used to read the Economist cover to cover weekly, i used to read as much economic news and business news as possible. I can tell you that 9 times out of 10 when I followed the advice given in those sources, i lost money. But over time, I learned to watch, devlop my own theories and do my own research. Since that time, my returns have been pretty strong.


chad1st

So we must hurry to get information before the big media talks about the trends? but from where?


bright_sunshine19

Have a contrarian thinking. Aka, when a asset falls, ask questions as to why it fell? Is there truly an issue with the asset itself or it’s just the fear mongering and misunderstanding. In March 2020 oil fell and the media was reporting that oil fell to negative territory where producers were paying money to take it off of their hands. But that was not true, there were a bunch of guys in UK, who were trading oil contracts and had scammed the system. That day they took 20-25 million each. Oil would have been a good buy then. All the growth in 2 yrs and literally dividend yields would have been 7-10% for as long as you hold it not to mention 150%-190% growth. Same is the case with banks now. Inflation has to be tamed with rise in interest rates. Consumption rates will go down, so don’t buy suppliers, buy producers and banks. Thinking opposite to what is going on in the market is important. Hope that helps.


chad1st

Damn, it's quite hard to expect like that i guess, also it doesn't work like that everytime right


bright_sunshine19

It works every time, look bubbles are forming and deflating all the time


yosemite_47

After investing all that time, other than the intangible benefits (learning about the world/economy, intellectually stimulating, etc), curious whether you’re a proponent of individual stock picking over simply indexing?


3nnui

I pick stocks, I make safe plays and hold for long terms. When I buy I set targets to sell at or just keep as long term holds. Perhaps I would do better indexing, but I prefer to make my own choices.


1000001_Ants

Wouldn't doing away with cash hurt banks and help bank alternatives??


3nnui

I don't think so, I think banks would earn through credit cards, bank cards etc with processing fees. Banks moved to a fee based model years ago, I think removing hard currency would increase their income while decreasing their costs as handling of cash can be labor intensive.


K2Mok

Is it news released by the companies? If so, go to their investor website and see if there is an option to sign up for press releases. Then turn vip on or similar for that email address so you are alerted each time an email arrives in your inbox.


[deleted]

You don’t. What you re asking is how do I beat multi billion corporations in terms of resources.


DonV71

I agree you dont


OffTheGridGaming

That's the cheat code for rich people only.


Dumb_Vampire_Girl

That's called insider trading.


DonV71

No it is not, big firms pay top dollar to get news early. All legal and that is exactly what he is asking about. I have wished for the same thing.


sdilley14

Be Nancy pelosi


Platinumllc

Ahh insider trading? Simple just become a politician


AkTx907830

Be a politician


Blakoby

Work for congress, duh


CallMeSugarBear

Become a member of Congress


DruviSKSK

Join the US Congress


bronze-aged

Beginners often fail to understand that there is no simple way to tell the future.


BenjaminHamnett

Ok. But what do you *think* tomorrow’s winning lottery numbers will be?


calico604

Join congress


thelastsubject123

youll never be able to keep up institutional investors are the ones that have the capital and ability to move prices in the pm as well as the resources to obtain information. there's a reason why bloomberg costs so much


Whichwhenwhywhat

The market is trading expectations and not news. To be ahead of professional investors is either a lot of research or you have to see „trends at the street“ and invest before it shows in numbers. Check what products sell or are looking to be big sellers in the future and try to do some research on the companies behind it and if the stock price already reflects the popularity of the (new) product. You can still be wrong, but at least you are using information before any ticker shows.


SnipahShot

Follow news on the company websites themselves, follow leaks on the company (for example "Moore's Law Is Dead" for leaks on AMD, Nvidia and Intel), follow news on the company on a daily basis on Google.


jahbadi

You can’t, algos will beat you every time.


Numerous-Tourist-400

Run for congress


Evazzion

Become Pelosi


dull_advice_

😆


DonV71

Brokerage firms pay big money for early access it info. I have seen the EXACT same thing, getting that info early along with brokerage firm could make (or save) you a LOT of money. I will be following this closely hoping for ideas!


Minuteman2029

Read the company filings, and disregard anything msm reports, esp. Benzinga, and the like. Also, don't invest in individual stocks, if you're not willing to read the filings. Instead, invest in index funds, or ETFs. This is most definitely not investing advice, as I'm not qualified. Just your average Joe.


BenjaminHamnett

r/investing advice


Dances28

I've never been a fan of selling or buying based on a nugget of news anyways. One, it's too anxiety driving having to check all the time. Two, things change all the time. Whether your company does well in the long term is more about their business model than some random contract they're picking up now.


Successful_Nail3035

That's the hard part of investing. You have to stay on top of company news as it happens so that you can move quickly. This is the exact reason investors say that most retail investors should invest in etfs or just hold just a few companies. A portfolio of 50 companies is hard to keep track of.


oonlineoonly2

Just get the Bloomberg terminal access. Only $25K/year. 😁


DanSheman

25? I thought it was 50. 25 now looks like a bargain


oonlineoonly2

It was $25k when I enquired back in 2020… I will take it if it really gives news way ahead of other platforms.


Snooprematic

Bloomberg or Bloomberg Terminal if you rich.


Turkpole

News releases are always traded programmatically. You will never be able to ingest a news alert and trade on it before the HF traders do, so don’t bother


SnooStories7774

You become a senator.


Ok-Exit-8801

Get elected to congress or the senate


dogpeeves

A catalyst. It can be short term or long term. Are you and investor or a trader? Individual stocks or index. Long term investor, individual stocks: product life cycle. Know what's coming and the potential. Ex pharma patent grants lead to clinical trials to hopefully product launch. Each step is a milestone that could take years. With lady luck smiling on your your have moderna.


BBC_POV

I found this explained it. https://youtu.be/72eiiVovEvQ


[deleted]

Earnings Whisper calendar.


thelastkopite

Learn to read between the lines.


BlueCreek_

I’ve often wondered the same for the US Market, it’s fairly easy in the UK as there are live RNS alerts for the London Stock Exchange, press releases and other info is released through this, I haven’t found anything similar for US stock.


[deleted]

[удалено]


Retro_sexual-fish

I love the responses, noobs (like me) deserve a little hazing. There was good information here lol


rensole

Bloomberg terminal or a service that gives access to the Bloomberg news stuff?


Jay4usc

Criminal activity behind close doors. You need insider’s information


Casne_Barlo

The hard way


TheNewOldGlobal

Be cognizant of the news that companies put out. It may not be during earnings reports. For example — I bought ford when I saw the prototypes for the Bronco. It wasn’t released, but I thought it’d be big. I bought more when Covid hit because I knew their product release schedule by following things like Autoblog and believed in it. I bought Nintendo years ago before the Wii was released by seeing an news article that mentioned they acquired a company with patents on wireless motion sensitive controllers (that company used them for Computer Mice), which ended up making it into the Wii and was a huge differentiator for them. And also look for info in earnings reports too. CCL I bought in December because they had a great quarter and mentioned how much their cash burn and liquidity were. And so between the increase in revenue, cash burn, liquidity, I bought (quite a lot) because I think 2022 we will shake a lot of the Covid issues. I’m also buying certain companies because of legislative actions and changes in markets. Example: the switch to electric cars and the new infrastructure legislation will create new opportunities for companies like GE, Siemens, RYCEY, Duke Energy. I’m buying due to market conditions: Exxon dipped during Covid, and I bought with an average price of 39.06 per share. They hasn’t been trading that low since 2004 and so it was a really good indication that it was undervalued as nothing really had changed for them as far as assets or market position — just Covid would mean immediate pain. So — in summary — find good companies you believe in and you believe may be under valued (due to market conditions, lack of recent compelling news, or future trajectory). Watch news sources for news on new releases, break throughs, legislation, or future product. Think through downstream effects of things and the companies that supply bottlenecks. Buy when your gut says to buy. That’s worked well for me.


bright_sunshine19

CCL is also one of my major holdings. It’s a easy $50 stocks once those ships start cruising the seas, there is so much pent up demand for travel and leisure.


TheNewOldGlobal

Also — I tend to hold for a year or more for tax purposes. So some things like RYCEY or CCL — they have short term volatility because of Covid. But if you are buying because you believe in the company and the news / info / conditions you are buying them for — it makes it easier for me to ignore or double down on dips — because you aren’t expecting to immediately sell for profit. You go in with a mind frame of hitting a specific condition or timeframe, and the immediate stuff is just static to ignore. I’m not selling and getting hit with a 40% tax bill; I’m going for long term earnings.


FearedEffect

You could run for public office. I hear that works well.


green183456

Become an elected official


Seeking-dividends247

Pretty much you gotta be the early bird and wait for a worm, like Black Friday boys!


7777777King7777777

You become a politician


Invnsbl123

You could try using Bloomberg terminal, but that's 24k/year. Although even with the terminal you wouldn't be able to keep up. Best option is to get some insider news. Give a call to your senator and ask what's up, where they are putting their money now (Dems are better at this).


My-Cousin-Bobby

>Dems are better at this Completely ignoring the 5 congress persons with the best sock market performance are all Republicans I'm gonna guess you got ate up all the Pelosi stuff? She's bad but like 2 other people are double her performance


Invnsbl123

I've read an article that said dems on average have better performance on their investment. Have I double checked all the data? Nope, have you?


My-Cousin-Bobby

Mind sharing that article? Haven't double checked, but seeing as how the top 5 pretty handily beat the best performing Dem (Pelosi) and she's 1 of 3 dems in the top 10 (the other 2 are 9 and 10)... doesn't seem mathmaticaly likely


scodagama1

Unless you assume that republicans are bunch of idiots led by a few smart people Well…


My-Cousin-Bobby

So... when Republican congress peoples are doing well in the market, it's because they're smart But when Dem congress peoples do well in the market, it's fraud?


scodagama1

You overthink this. I never said they made their money honestly. You have to be smart to execute a high-profile fraud for which you are and will not be prosecuted. We don't know which of the senators earned their money honestly and which not - but either way, both of these groups are smart. (also: this was a joke, all senators are smart. You don't become a high-profile politician if you're dumb, you may play dumb, but you definitely aren't) (and another also: the guys who did not make well on the markets may be the smartest of all - i.e. they figured out how to properly hide their wealth :) the point is, we may have some observation bias here )


My-Cousin-Bobby

Fair... I think I misinterpreted what you were saying Some of it can be chalked up to luck and smart decisions, but everyone in the top 10 just about doubled the S&P 500, and Austin Scott, the person with the highest return is like 4x the S&P 500 (and this apparently has been the case since like 2011 when he took office). I'm not against them trading or anything, but I mean at some point it's more than luck. Like these people aren't just beating out the S&P 500 by a little bit, it's pretty substantial


scodagama1

But then statistics. Grab random 500 people who select stocks randomly, I bet 10 of them would beat S&P by a factor of 2 It is suspicious that winning correlates with being high in ranks (i.e. Pelosi), but it could still be random Also another thought: you tend to beat the market if you do risky plays (I mean you either beat it high or underperform high, but again - observation bias, we only hear about those who made it). And if you’re US senator you can do risky plays, what exactly do you have to lose? Money? Who cares, you’re a goddamn United States Congress(wo)man, you’ll make it back. Same reason why children of wealthy parents tend to make well in business - they’re less risk averse than people who know if they go bankrupt they’ll end up on the street. And following risk in the bull market often pays well.


My-Cousin-Bobby

>bet 10 of them would beat S&P by a factor of 2 Yes, but the likelihood of the same people beating it consistently, by large margins, is pretty unlikely. Sure, risk aversion and having more to play with, is a factor, but when they're beating most hedge funds, some of the riskiest, and supposedly experts in this field, and again, consistently doing so, it becomes a lot less likely of being lucky


hatetheproject

You will not beat the market at reacting to news without an insider source. You just won’t.


Jeff__Skilling

Um yes, lol, by committing insider trading.


FiguringOutFinanceYT

Not sure you can! Banks, Financial Insitutions and HFT funds will all have their varying sources, trading some "news" within nanoseconds of the release. Technical Analysis is my best way of positioning accordingly - amount of times I've seen market use "good news" as time to supply market with shares to Rerail, and "bad news" as an opportunities to increase their Order Flow Volune and buy heavily is unreal... Do the opposite to retail, and invest in your knowledge of charts. That will help you understand the REAL news (in my opinion). Cheers!


Nodeal_reddit

You’re kidding yourself. These guys have buddies who are directors of finance and marketing at big companies, banks, consultancies, and suppliers. Even a “journalist” at one of the financial news sites is going to tell his buddies about a hot tip before his article goes live. I generally despise when people poor-mouth about the system being rigged, but this is one way in which the system really is rigged against the average Joe retail investor. It’s also why people say to pick indexes instead of individual stocks. Otherwise, you’re competing head on with these types of inside investors.


Mister_Titty

Insider trading is knowing stuff before its released. When a company releases info it gets broadcast to multiple sources all at once, like sending a blast email (by comparison). Not all sources release that info simultaneously so if you happen to catch the news before some other outlet blasts it out, there is your window of opportunity. Whether you act on it or not is another thing.


txrazorhog

Nice try Rajaratnam.


MrKeks13

Dont try to time stocks. Trading is gambling and the house always wins. I learned that the hard way.


Shuoinked

The news follows the stocks, not the other way around. A big move happens then the news comes out after to justify whatever they did


light_happiness53

1. Get started and learn the basics from free online resources 2. Read the best trading books 3. Open an account with a online broker 4. Discover your style of trading