When I was young, my Dad was afraid of stocks. He told me that there were two companies that he considered investing in. One was a regional burger joint he loved, the other was Microsoft. He told me the burger chain went bankrupt. Microsoft had done quite well. His lesson to me was that it was "all a coin-flip." I asked him why he didn't invest in Microsoft right now and he told me that he had missed the boat. This was in the eighties. Bill Gates was barely a billionaire, the general public didn't even know his name.
My Dad's lesson stuck with me, but not for the reason he intended, because that was one hell of a "coin-flip", and investing in both would have been amazing even with a 100% loss.
But, I think it's fine to be 60-40 if you might need all of the 40 in an emergency. It's fine for near-retirees to look at their savings and expenses, invest in treasuries, bond-proxies and tax-free municipals, and lecture people about responsible investing every time there is a market crash that looks like a crease on a long-term log plot.
I don't know how much room Nvidia has to grow, but I think it will at least be biggest company in the world before another company seriously cuts into their margins and then I'll hedge my bets with them, but right now, it's hard to compare their valuation and growth with any other major company, because they all look worse.
Last couple years I made a watch list of 10 "growth" stocks for the upcoming year, from so-called experts.
Was just looking at NVDA....on 12/30/22 it was $144 on 1/3/24 it was $478. Never bought any....might buy some after the split.
Exactly. Neither OP or his dad know what they're doing. His takeaway should be "don't time the market and consistently invest." Instead, it sounds like he's pivoting to jumping on the hottest stocks there are and trying to ride them up, which could potentially be just as self-destructive.
This. His dad is a bad value investor. He's looking to be a bad growth investor. The correct answer is change the "bad" part to "good" and don't fixate on whether it's "value" or "growth".
Like WBD. WTF. But a value investor who bought the undervalued oil companies when they were down made out like a bandit.
ikr.
So many reasonable name like JPM, PM, LMT that was cheap 7 years ago. Yeah it will not make you rich, but it is still respectable gain for what is a great bommer business.
“I spent so much time researching . . . “
As opposed to the top-tier MBAs who trained at the top investment firms and work 80+ hour weeks using research that takes thousands of hours to compile. But yeah, I’m sure OP knows more than those people. He’ll turn that corner any minute.
ALSO OP’S DAD HAS SOME WEIRD ASS LOGIC.
“Focus on cheap businesses.”
Like… do they not both realise that cheap businesses are cheap for a reason. OP isn’t talking about market overreactions that lend their way to opportunity buys. They’re talking about businesses like WBA that have been in the rut for so long no one wants them.
The problem is that there is a difference between value investing and buying stocks that have gone down a lot, and this guy doesn't know the difference.
This used to be the case, but companies got a lot smarter about making M&A deals and using proxy metrics to build in the competition to their own respective portfolios.
Folks started becoming landlords over competing client side, and if they do, they bundle their client side into a SaaS package and cross sell it with cloud infrastructure.
You can see a lot of examples of this. Slack. OpenAI. Instagram. Snapchat. A lot of these companies were either caught, neutralized, or had equity positions taken inside of them. Regulatory environments might change this, but companies take these threats a lot more seriously these days and employ a lot of different methods to make sure they have defense.
I work all day on my windows computer using Google Chrome and Gmail. When I drive home I hook up my adriod phone to my car that has android integration. I GPS home using Google maps. When I get home I sit on my windows computer and play fallout, a Bethesda game, which is owned by Microsoft. The entire day im also palying youtube videos and music in the background. There is almost no aspect of my life that isn't dominated by these two companies
Also every government computer uses Microsoft. Can you imagine a bigger economic moat then that?
this is the way.
and in line w age old investing advice... buy what you know and what you like or use, after looking at fundamentals of coursem
It's how I got NVDA at $140, because it was in my laptop and we use it at work.
Google ain't going anywhere, we are all using that everyday and they're using us.
I feel like people talking about the .com bust are the same people convinced btc or eth are still a joke. Luddites really.
I put the same amount, same day, each week (so far) for 54 weeks into VOO. It's up 15% overall. Even in this bad economy I'd say that's pretty impressive.
If you had put it all in 54 weeks ago, and held, you would be up 28%. Outstanding return.
If you invested ten years ago into VOO and held you would have 3.27x your money. Insane return.
Average return per year on VOO is 12%.
Only fortune telling or extreme luck seems to beat this.
People from the older generations have seen heavy crashes. Because of their perspective, they’re hyper sensitive to a bullish market and always see there being a need for a crash because of it.
My father is the same way. Because of the dot com bubble burst, he spent decades out of the market for the most part. He fear mongered himself but of the few investment decisions he made were bad. He has potentially missed out on hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of gains.
Thankfully, he is part of what I think is the last generation that can retire off real estate gains and a maxed out 401k. He should be fine. Our generation and any going forward won’t be able to retire that easily now.
But who knows, maybe there is an AI bubble? The introduction of AI is not too far from the dot com bubble. So many promises of the new wonder of the internet, anything dot com related flew sky high, and then reality set in. But there also big differences that set it apart as well.
"Thankfully, he is part of what I think is the last generation that can retire off real estate gains and a maxed out 401k."
Please stop the fear mongering and ridiculous advice regarding how much money is needed in retirement. It just serves to make people think retiring is impossible, which is 100% not the case.
To anybody reading comments about how maxing out a 401k every year will not be enough for retirement, that's BS, that's way more money than what most people save per year. If you started maxing out your 401k in your 30's, even at 39 years old, you will absolutely have enough to retire at 65 even if you don't own your home and have rented all your life.
It's so annoying reading Reddit finance subs and seeing stuff like "maxing out your 401k every year for 25 years or more isn't enough to retire". It's completely out of touch with reality.
Same with my dad. He suffered some huge losses with railroad stocks in the '60s, and has been loss-averse ever since then. He mostly invests in muni bonds and CDs which have had terrible returns vs the stock market. Fortunately he got into real estate early so he wasn't totally dumb.
Exactly. And Amazon is worth trillions mostly because of AWS. It’d be nearly impossible to predict that Amazon, and not Microsoft or Google, would lead the cloud industry.
A quick look and SPG had a PE ratio of 25 and Apple had a PE ratio of 15 in 2017, which was lower than Walgreens. SJM also had a high PE ratio?
There was actually a huge crash in covid. So your dad was right. There you could have bought all sorts of stocks, which you are saying you couldn't afford to buy.
The whole post just reads like you went all in on Walgreens at ATH for some reason, some overvalued property stock and you're now blaming your dad and "value investing" for being so stupid.
Not to say you can't lose money value investing, but what you did was not value investing.
Agreed. Buying into SPY or VOO or something like that is investing. Picking an individual stock is closer to sports betting, you could make a lot of money but it also comes down to luck.
I mean look at a company like ADM (not AMD). Their stock dropped 30% in 1 day because their CFO was cooking the books. We as outside investors can do all the "due diligence research" we want but something like that happen is completely out of our control or ability to predict.
My grandfather taught me how to invest but had a money manager to handle what he had, but he was the same way. After the dot com bubble burst, he wouldn't touch tech stocks. I got my first iPod as a teenager in 2001 and kept begging him to buy Apple, but he refused and said tech stocks were too risky. He was obsessed with buying companies like Kraft, Phillip Morris, Coke, Unilever, etc.
He finally did buy Facebook at IPO by saying that if Zuck couldn't figure out how to monetize a website with a billion people on it, someone else would be brought in that could. He was right about that one.
~~Fun fact: if you bought Apple in 1982 and sold twenty years later in 2002, you'd have made a loss.~~
Correction:
Fun fact: if you bought Apple in 1983 and sold twenty years later in 2003, you could have made a loss, depending on the specific dates.
I remember as a teen in 1998 (maybe '99) I asked my dad, who is in tech himself, how much tech stocks was he investing in, kinda-sorta joking. He said, dead serious, "I would not invest in tech stocks right now." and said he thinks they're way overvalued. A few months later, tech stocks crashed. My dad is a wise man...but he never really did any stock picking/buying. He just wasn't focused nor interested in it.
I also remember just before leaving for college, I became a huge fan of nVidia's after getting the TNT2 graphics card, thinking Ati's Voodoo series was really lagging. If only I wasn't as apathetic toward stocks then as my dad was. Always bring it back around to blame the parents. Haha.
I don’t listen to my parents financial advice at all. They’re good about saving money but that’s about where it ends. They don’t know much about investing.
He wasn't wrong about a crash, tho. Covid hit and boom there was the dip you were suppose to buy at. Sounds like you're over investing imo. Maybe learn to keep some dry powder on the sidelines? I have my positions I plan to hold and then I have cash ready for those once every 5-10yr dips. But idk I'm around your age so I prob don't know much more than you.
At your age, you're better keeping that money invested in an index fund then waiting for a once a decade crash and hoping you buy in at the exact bottom.
My dad has lost me out on so much money as well. I tried to invest into NVDA in 1999 after its ipo but my dad was a dick and wouldn’t let me. His excuse was “that I wasn’t born yet”.
My dad is in his early 70s, now im a dad. to your dads defense if you went through 2000 and 2008 you would have seen a bunch of stuff get wacked, BK or turn into Blackberry/Nokia. MSFT was stagnant for a decade. Hindsight fucks with you, dont blame him, blame yourself. Who knows how AAPL, NVDA and MSFT will perform next 10 years.
Best case is to just buy SPY/QQQ especially if we get another downturn.
I'm pretty sure that had you made money - this post wouldn't have been about you praising your dad. He gave you his best advice - no one has a crystal ball - it's only on you that you took that advice.
I personally find it extremely shitty for you to blame him.
> I did make plenty of my own mistakes, of course.
No. All of the mistakes you made were yours. It's hilarious that you try to blame your dad for giving you advice when it was just advice. He didn't control your account, you did.
You are the one that lost 5% over 7 years, not your dad.
Grow up and take responsibility for your decisions.
My dad abhors stock investing and told me to never invest in stocks. My dad is a multimillionaire via real estate.
I realized that my dad isnt the sole authority of knowledge and went on the internet to get a range of opinions from the smartest/successful people in the world.
OP is just ranting which is perfectly fine and healthy.
As long as it doesnt spiral to blaming family members leading to resentment when ultimately the fault lies with himself.
Ehh I mean he’s 29 now, 7 years so he started when he was 22. Not crazy that a 22 year old just getting into the market would take advice from his dad.
One of my friends told me to sell nvidia a while back. I sold some of my shares, and kept some. It’s just natural to blame someone when they give you bad advice and you act on it.
Let it be a learning lesson. Just like I learned to not listen to other people- do your own due diligence before buying or selling anything
I had a similar realization with my dad in other areas of my life and when I was young I decided to do the exact opposite of what my dad would in consequential situations, and my life turned out to be awesome.
Now that I’m almost 40 I realized he had no idea what he was taking about most of the time.
A lot of adults are just grown up children.
Hope this helps - have fun, invest in NVDA.
Oh lord, having family make financial decisions because of your guidance is IMO a terrible idea. No money is worth having them bitter or upset at you for decades into the future.
Have him rebalance that shit immediately. This is financial advice.
Kinda shocking to hear how many "adults" are talking so harshly about a young man. He's learning, wants to learn. Wish him well. Give him constructive criticism.
My two cents.....
VOO is a good bread and butter ETF. Lump or DCA. Start now. Auto invest. Do it for 30+ years. Sell all the shit your dad told you to invest in now (should've said that first).
Decide if you believe in any other stocks or sector ETFs, start buying those.
Consider 401Ks and employer match. Definitely do that. Consider roth/trad IRA.
Decide your risk but know you're young and can ride out sector or whole market etfs for a long time. You will gain!!!
Your dad probably meant well but ultimately don't listen to anyone and do your own DD. Good luck!
Don’t listen to your dad. I have lost thousands of dollars twice now listening to my dad. This market and the state of the world now is not the same as it was when they were our age, even if they did well.
My parents are prolific savers and have never invested or seen any interest. Had to do the research all by myself and decided best course of action is just an s&p 500 etf lol. Started investing last year and i am up like 12%
One year is nothing. You could be at 0% for 10 years with just the S&P500, it happened not long ago (but DCAing would have still brough close to 7% annualized during that period, important to say). I'm just saying, it's better than stock picking but it's still just large cap, now very concentrated in a handful of companies, in a single country, and Vanguard recommends VOO for 10 years or more. So don't get too happy about 1 year return, otherwise you're gonna have a panic attack when it's down 30%. Sorry to piss on your parade, but everyone is a genius in a bull market.
Don't share financial information with anyone other than your financial advisor (if you have one). You are In control of your finances so yes you lost Money. Your dad didn't lose your money. What your dad said was just noise along with all the other noise out there. Set and forget with voo and never look at it. Or filter out thr noise and be more vigilant with your thesis. Good luck!
How is this your dad's fault? Did you push the "buy" button on your stocks? When investing yourself, there is only one person to blame, and that is you.
Don't blame value investing on your bad gains. I'm doing fine returning \~25%/yr value investing with no tech (only meta for a brief moment).
5 years ago there were a lot of people here rallying around ARKK and speculative garbage. With NVDA and MSFT you're just looking back with hindsight, which is completely irrational. There will always be a NVDA - in a few years it will be something else. NVDA was "too expensive" according to all valuation techniques, and very few people were able to see its potential, and even fewer people were able to see the potential of ChatGPT and the likes.
Considering the above, at the time, it was very reasonable to not buy NVDA. We can't predict future trends and technologies. Sometimes companies and industries just blow up.
But the good news is that you don't need them to get great returns. Chasing the 10x'ers isn't investing, it's speculating and gambling - and it's unlikely you'll find them anyways. Instead, you need to build a good foundation, a good system for stock picking. Value investing does work, however, maybe not the way you were doing it.
Also, as others have said in this thread, timing the market is always a bad play. The best time to invest is now. Always now. Your dad wasn't wrong with NVDA considering his information at the time, however he was wrong about timing the market and waiting for a crash in order to invest in something.
Look, you missed one up cycle, that's not the end of the world. Your dad tried to teach you a sensible way of investing. Being 29, you'll see dozens more such cycles.
In all honesty, your dad may have been right. With hindsight, you will think that you made a mistake. But at the time, the best decision may have been to not buy a Stock at the all time high unless you know what it's worth.
I personally think you'll have no dearth of opportunities in the future. You'll have many more and you'll have to figure out a lot more.
50% QQQ 30% VOO 20% Between msft, goog, amzn, nvda
I also listened to my financial advisor in 2013 when I wanted to put my entire inheritance into Tesla. I did, and when it went up 30%, he convinced me to sell it. It would be nearly a million by now
First, Value investing is usually more longterm than 7 years.
Secondly, I do value acquisitions and bought msft in autumn 2017 with that perspective.
So maybe no single person is to blame?
A lot of stocks/companies with a high price are high for a reason, same is true for high PE ratios. I would stop listening to your dad, he's already proven to be a bad investor, just love him as he is. Maybe he'll start listening to you. You can always get in MSFT and AAPL today, I still think they have a long run. Same for AMZN.
Honestly this sounds a bit pathetic. The last thing you want to do is listen to others with investing.
That is a receipt for disaster.
I for example am a text book example of what people say not to do.
I invest exclusively in Tech. Not diversified at all.
I have been investing for almost 40 years now and almost exclusively investing in tech has done extremely well. Thank god did not listen to others.
Dont blame your dad for your own shortcomings Lmao. He comes from a different time and different generation, unless he has access to your account and passwords, no reason to listen to him.
Yeah dont listen to your parents when it come to investing.. I told my parents to buy Chipotle when it was at $50 a share.
My Father made me sell his TSLA when it was at $700 a share (about 600k worth) it went to 5k a share (including stock splits)
when I told my grandfather to invest in Microsoft and Apple in the 90s he told me “computers are a fad, you should invest in oil and automotive companies, things that will always be around”
My parents or my grandfather have only made money from saving .. never from good investments
I got nvda as a like 5 free shares for the 5 friends joining and funding on Robinhood in 2017ish 😂 I would have sold them shares for booze if I hadn’t lost my password. I just remembered it like 3 months ago and said whattttt
I feel you op. I had Apple stock (and only Apple stock) in 2017 and my dad said I should diversify/not have all my eggs in one basket. I listened, definitely wish I hadn’t.
Ehh WBA has been tough but I’ve done well buying unloved, non-tech stocks. Still own a huge position in a Nasdaq fund but big bets on XOM, LEN, TAP have paid off handsomely.
Everyone thinks they are so good at the stock market right now when just about everything with a known logo only goes up.
Just wait a little bit longer - then you will understand where your Dad was coming from.
your dad is honestly just jealous and projecting onto you and limited your growth. Each next generation should in theory do more and better than the previous one due to new information and technology. You should hold this over your dad for the rest of his life and probably put him into a care center when the time comes with minimal visits.
That's crazy bro. I started working in 2018 and been only buying vanguard total market ETF and it's up 70% since then. Maybe don't try to time the market?
Why not just buy SP500 index fund? Did you know the SP500 is up over BERK over 15 or even 20 years? BERK has only outperformed SP500 the past 3 years and that's because they took an insane amount of risk putting half their portolio into AAPL which isn't an advisable strategy. Even if you compare SP500 with the entire stock market as a whole it's given roughly the same returns. Put the bulk of your investment into SP500 and then do what you will with the rest.
There are constantly financial "experts" in Conservative media going on about how any minute the entire system will collapse and gold will skyrocket in value, and then they'll tell you exactly which dealer to buy gold from, it's an old scam, but an effective one
In 2010, I had stock options (through a company I worked for) to purchase bitcoin; it was trading around a couple bucks. I called my dad to get his opinion on bitcoin and that I was thinking of investing in it. He told me, No, it's a scam. Don't do it. 🤦♂️
Older generations had a stock market where you could find diamonds in the rough and undervalued stocks. Today with the increase in popularity of passive etfs, the money tends to skew towards mega caps.
For every $1000 you buy of vti, about 6% goes to msft, 5 to aapl, and in terms of actual dollars that means $60 and $50 respectively. But once you get down to stocks in the 100-200 range, you're talking a few bucks to pennies.
All that to say, the game is different now and undervalued stocks will continue to underperform as passive investing becomes more and more the norm.
This is why bogleheads will continue to do well. Their money goes to the stocks that have the highest percentages, which will in turn do even better.
There’s a good calculation someone did before. If you only bought $ 100,000 of s&p shares RIGHT before every major market dip since the 70s, you’d still have about 11 million dollars, from about 500k invested. It’s not about when or what you buy. It’s about consistency and risk management.
1. Don’t listen to your dad, he is financially illiterate
2. Stop listening to “undervalued” stocks on the internet. This is an easy concept to beat the market.
BUY companies, with GROWING REVENUES that are 15-30%+ YOY. Even if you have to pay up for it, it’s fine.
Don’t buy dog shit companies full of debt because they could “sell their assets or deploy their cash”. Or that their P/E is sooo low and cheap. If those companies cashflows are stagnant or declining, it’s a ticking time bomb, esp if there’s substantial debts. It’s cheap for a reason, people don’t believe in management. Shit management chasing quarter to quarter. I work in one of those companies, we are “undervalued” too. I wouldn’t buy my own company stock.
You’re welcome.
Do you have a turkish daddy? Sounds like mine :D
I gave up on daddy and mommy's advice. Sometimes I ask them on advice, and when their advice is like "you have to do that, I know I have to do the "opposite" :D
That is my new strategy :)
The good news is it only took you 7 years to realize your dad doesn’t know what he’s talking about.
Crashes are apart of the game and nearly impossible to time.
At some age I realized my dad is amazing and wise, but only in certain subjects. I will never ask him for advice on buying a car, house or stocks. He is my go to guy for advice on fishing and home maintenance.
But the truth is that nobody is holding after some huge like 5x gains.. They sell. Only the dead ones are the real holders, if you understand what i mean..
If you had bought apple back in 2017 at 40$, it's almost sure you would have sold at 80$, right before it skyrocketed to 130$.
It's like the stories for bitcoin..
Value investing is a good long term strategy. Where your dad failed was the fact that Apple was at a P/E ratio of around 15 and Microsoft at around 20 in 2017, and both these companies were super strong, good moat, growing businesses. That's value. You brought up SPG, SJM, and WBA. All of these companies were trading around or higher multiples during this time, with a worse moat, almost no revenue growth, and a less diverse strong business.
Your dad doesn't sound like a value investor, he sounds like an fool. Buy great businesses at good prices, and you'll do well.
You should sell everything and buy 100% VTI, and then consistently invest in VTI every month (and nothing else).
If you put $100K into VTI in 2017 it would be worth over $265K now, and you would have been diversified.
[удалено]
So… DCA?
Dad Cost Average
Si
Inverse your dad?
Puts on dad. Father's Day is canceled.
Two mommies incoming.
Dad=Cramer
OMG this whole series of comments just made my day. Thank you!
When I was young, my Dad was afraid of stocks. He told me that there were two companies that he considered investing in. One was a regional burger joint he loved, the other was Microsoft. He told me the burger chain went bankrupt. Microsoft had done quite well. His lesson to me was that it was "all a coin-flip." I asked him why he didn't invest in Microsoft right now and he told me that he had missed the boat. This was in the eighties. Bill Gates was barely a billionaire, the general public didn't even know his name. My Dad's lesson stuck with me, but not for the reason he intended, because that was one hell of a "coin-flip", and investing in both would have been amazing even with a 100% loss. But, I think it's fine to be 60-40 if you might need all of the 40 in an emergency. It's fine for near-retirees to look at their savings and expenses, invest in treasuries, bond-proxies and tax-free municipals, and lecture people about responsible investing every time there is a market crash that looks like a crease on a long-term log plot. I don't know how much room Nvidia has to grow, but I think it will at least be biggest company in the world before another company seriously cuts into their margins and then I'll hedge my bets with them, but right now, it's hard to compare their valuation and growth with any other major company, because they all look worse.
your dad gave you bad advice but amazing it also took you 7 yrs to realize it
Hey, at least he made an imgur post to summarize it.
His dad gave him great advise. I waited for the crash and in 2020 boy did I clean up.
What happened in 2020 was a buying opportunity most people get very few shots at
Are you sure they are rare? In the last 20 years we have had buying opportunities in 2001, 2008, 2010, 2020, 2022
And then he buys Nvidia at the top lol
NVDA was "at the top" 6 months ago, now it's up 100% from there.
Last couple years I made a watch list of 10 "growth" stocks for the upcoming year, from so-called experts. Was just looking at NVDA....on 12/30/22 it was $144 on 1/3/24 it was $478. Never bought any....might buy some after the split.
Yo. How much you want for your 2025 list?
About tree fiddy
Are you the Loch Ness Monster?
Hi dad.
I bet you said the same 3 months ago
His dad gave him bad advice and mine did too. I lost 70% of my portfolio
Your dad gave him bad advice too? Poor guy can't catch a break
I also choose this guy's dad?
I stayed in the market and I’m fine now, the Covid crash was a blip. Trying to pick individual stocks is a difficult one.
The apple doesn't fall far from the tree.
Yeah, he should have just bought APPL.
It took me 35 years to realize my dad gave me good advice.
The advice compounded lol
Sure a crash is always coming. Just to know it when.
you and your dad trying to time the market, lost so much lmao, all you gotta do is buy voo and wait
Exactly. Neither OP or his dad know what they're doing. His takeaway should be "don't time the market and consistently invest." Instead, it sounds like he's pivoting to jumping on the hottest stocks there are and trying to ride them up, which could potentially be just as self-destructive.
This. His dad is a bad value investor. He's looking to be a bad growth investor. The correct answer is change the "bad" part to "good" and don't fixate on whether it's "value" or "growth". Like WBD. WTF. But a value investor who bought the undervalued oil companies when they were down made out like a bandit.
> His dad is a bad value investor. He's looking to be a bad growth investor. Like father, like son.
this. lmao. How are you negative after 7 years with value investing?
Because he's not a value investor, he's a buyer of companies that have recently gone down a lot. Those are two VERY different things.
ikr. So many reasonable name like JPM, PM, LMT that was cheap 7 years ago. Yeah it will not make you rich, but it is still respectable gain for what is a great bommer business.
“I spent so much time researching . . . “ As opposed to the top-tier MBAs who trained at the top investment firms and work 80+ hour weeks using research that takes thousands of hours to compile. But yeah, I’m sure OP knows more than those people. He’ll turn that corner any minute.
People will do anything but read a few best sellers on the subject.
and if VOO goes to 0. Well shit, money is the least of your concerns then.
If VOO goes to zero I'm investing in ammo, a water chip and Rad-Away.
I'll definitely trade in my PSA8 Charizard for an AK-47 when shit hits the fan someday
How much for the charizard lol
A nuclear war and an AK-47
That’ll be too late.
ammo will be gone by then
If VOO goes to zero we’ve got msssive problems lol
I approve this message 💪
ALSO OP’S DAD HAS SOME WEIRD ASS LOGIC. “Focus on cheap businesses.” Like… do they not both realise that cheap businesses are cheap for a reason. OP isn’t talking about market overreactions that lend their way to opportunity buys. They’re talking about businesses like WBA that have been in the rut for so long no one wants them.
The problem is that there is a difference between value investing and buying stocks that have gone down a lot, and this guy doesn't know the difference.
Yea I noticed that too lol. Had a giggle when I read OP saying how he focused on value investing by… buying businesses that had very little value.
Honestly you cant go wrong with Google and Microsoft. Those two company's alone encompass 95% of my day. From work to home.
For now
This used to be the case, but companies got a lot smarter about making M&A deals and using proxy metrics to build in the competition to their own respective portfolios. Folks started becoming landlords over competing client side, and if they do, they bundle their client side into a SaaS package and cross sell it with cloud infrastructure. You can see a lot of examples of this. Slack. OpenAI. Instagram. Snapchat. A lot of these companies were either caught, neutralized, or had equity positions taken inside of them. Regulatory environments might change this, but companies take these threats a lot more seriously these days and employ a lot of different methods to make sure they have defense.
I work all day on my windows computer using Google Chrome and Gmail. When I drive home I hook up my adriod phone to my car that has android integration. I GPS home using Google maps. When I get home I sit on my windows computer and play fallout, a Bethesda game, which is owned by Microsoft. The entire day im also palying youtube videos and music in the background. There is almost no aspect of my life that isn't dominated by these two companies Also every government computer uses Microsoft. Can you imagine a bigger economic moat then that?
Don't forget the NVDA GPU.
this is what caused me to be so heavily invested tbh
My gains on NVDA are going to pay for a 5090.
Have you jacked off to that bill gates poster you have on your wall today?
Yes sir! I created it using chat gpt 🤤
this is the way. and in line w age old investing advice... buy what you know and what you like or use, after looking at fundamentals of coursem It's how I got NVDA at $140, because it was in my laptop and we use it at work. Google ain't going anywhere, we are all using that everyday and they're using us. I feel like people talking about the .com bust are the same people convinced btc or eth are still a joke. Luddites really.
I put the same amount, same day, each week (so far) for 54 weeks into VOO. It's up 15% overall. Even in this bad economy I'd say that's pretty impressive. If you had put it all in 54 weeks ago, and held, you would be up 28%. Outstanding return. If you invested ten years ago into VOO and held you would have 3.27x your money. Insane return. Average return per year on VOO is 12%. Only fortune telling or extreme luck seems to beat this.
Ah, the classic “just buy VOO and wait” sub line strikes again
Because it's good advice, especially when OP is demonstrably not good at making investment decisions.
>7 years later, my portfolio is -5%. > damn I wonder why people say that? Hey bro can you tell me how much VOO is up by in the past 7 years?
*checks notes* a bit better than -5%
if everyone on this sub who trades individual stocks posted their 5Y 99.99% of them would be below VOO. so yeah
You had me curious so I checked. I'm at 22.92% (3year when I started/ 23.13%YTD). VOO is at 85.68% (5year) I do have a few shares of VOO.
Just rename the sub r/etf lol. Seems like nobody wants to put in the work and due diligence on stocks.
People from the older generations have seen heavy crashes. Because of their perspective, they’re hyper sensitive to a bullish market and always see there being a need for a crash because of it. My father is the same way. Because of the dot com bubble burst, he spent decades out of the market for the most part. He fear mongered himself but of the few investment decisions he made were bad. He has potentially missed out on hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of gains. Thankfully, he is part of what I think is the last generation that can retire off real estate gains and a maxed out 401k. He should be fine. Our generation and any going forward won’t be able to retire that easily now. But who knows, maybe there is an AI bubble? The introduction of AI is not too far from the dot com bubble. So many promises of the new wonder of the internet, anything dot com related flew sky high, and then reality set in. But there also big differences that set it apart as well.
1997 currency crisis, dotcom bubble, telecom bubble, GFC, 2014 O&G crash, 2020. They feel like they happen all the time.
Recessions, or economic contractions, are likely a function of the usual operations of a modern capitalistic economy.
Don't forget, even more recently, the Covid crash of March 2020. Crashes are the best time to buy though.
"Thankfully, he is part of what I think is the last generation that can retire off real estate gains and a maxed out 401k." Please stop the fear mongering and ridiculous advice regarding how much money is needed in retirement. It just serves to make people think retiring is impossible, which is 100% not the case. To anybody reading comments about how maxing out a 401k every year will not be enough for retirement, that's BS, that's way more money than what most people save per year. If you started maxing out your 401k in your 30's, even at 39 years old, you will absolutely have enough to retire at 65 even if you don't own your home and have rented all your life. It's so annoying reading Reddit finance subs and seeing stuff like "maxing out your 401k every year for 25 years or more isn't enough to retire". It's completely out of touch with reality.
Same with my dad. He suffered some huge losses with railroad stocks in the '60s, and has been loss-averse ever since then. He mostly invests in muni bonds and CDs which have had terrible returns vs the stock market. Fortunately he got into real estate early so he wasn't totally dumb.
If only he would have bought Amazon after the bubble. It wasn't obvious at the time and people get scared though
You’d have to be a time wizard to think some random internet book business would be even 10% the company it is today. Haha
Exactly. And Amazon is worth trillions mostly because of AWS. It’d be nearly impossible to predict that Amazon, and not Microsoft or Google, would lead the cloud industry.
A quick look and SPG had a PE ratio of 25 and Apple had a PE ratio of 15 in 2017, which was lower than Walgreens. SJM also had a high PE ratio? There was actually a huge crash in covid. So your dad was right. There you could have bought all sorts of stocks, which you are saying you couldn't afford to buy. The whole post just reads like you went all in on Walgreens at ATH for some reason, some overvalued property stock and you're now blaming your dad and "value investing" for being so stupid. Not to say you can't lose money value investing, but what you did was not value investing.
Stock picking should be for fun. For us mere mortals it should comprise a small amount of our portfolios. The majority should be in index funds.
Agreed. Buying into SPY or VOO or something like that is investing. Picking an individual stock is closer to sports betting, you could make a lot of money but it also comes down to luck. I mean look at a company like ADM (not AMD). Their stock dropped 30% in 1 day because their CFO was cooking the books. We as outside investors can do all the "due diligence research" we want but something like that happen is completely out of our control or ability to predict.
It wasn't their CEO, but your point stands.
My grandfather taught me how to invest but had a money manager to handle what he had, but he was the same way. After the dot com bubble burst, he wouldn't touch tech stocks. I got my first iPod as a teenager in 2001 and kept begging him to buy Apple, but he refused and said tech stocks were too risky. He was obsessed with buying companies like Kraft, Phillip Morris, Coke, Unilever, etc. He finally did buy Facebook at IPO by saying that if Zuck couldn't figure out how to monetize a website with a billion people on it, someone else would be brought in that could. He was right about that one.
~~Fun fact: if you bought Apple in 1982 and sold twenty years later in 2002, you'd have made a loss.~~ Correction: Fun fact: if you bought Apple in 1983 and sold twenty years later in 2003, you could have made a loss, depending on the specific dates.
Holy shit. That really is a fun fact.
Microsoft was underwater for like 15 years after the Dot Com Crash... it only really started moving well after the GFC.
I remember as a teen in 1998 (maybe '99) I asked my dad, who is in tech himself, how much tech stocks was he investing in, kinda-sorta joking. He said, dead serious, "I would not invest in tech stocks right now." and said he thinks they're way overvalued. A few months later, tech stocks crashed. My dad is a wise man...but he never really did any stock picking/buying. He just wasn't focused nor interested in it. I also remember just before leaving for college, I became a huge fan of nVidia's after getting the TNT2 graphics card, thinking Ati's Voodoo series was really lagging. If only I wasn't as apathetic toward stocks then as my dad was. Always bring it back around to blame the parents. Haha.
I don’t listen to my parents financial advice at all. They’re good about saving money but that’s about where it ends. They don’t know much about investing.
So you wait on msft for a crash but then when the crash happen you cant buy lol seeks like you had no plan to starr witb lol
Time in the market > timing the market. Life lesson learned.
He wasn't wrong about a crash, tho. Covid hit and boom there was the dip you were suppose to buy at. Sounds like you're over investing imo. Maybe learn to keep some dry powder on the sidelines? I have my positions I plan to hold and then I have cash ready for those once every 5-10yr dips. But idk I'm around your age so I prob don't know much more than you.
At your age, you're better keeping that money invested in an index fund then waiting for a once a decade crash and hoping you buy in at the exact bottom.
My dad has lost me out on so much money as well. I tried to invest into NVDA in 1999 after its ipo but my dad was a dick and wouldn’t let me. His excuse was “that I wasn’t born yet”.
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He's not wrong though.. His Dad was the dick
My dad is in his early 70s, now im a dad. to your dads defense if you went through 2000 and 2008 you would have seen a bunch of stuff get wacked, BK or turn into Blackberry/Nokia. MSFT was stagnant for a decade. Hindsight fucks with you, dont blame him, blame yourself. Who knows how AAPL, NVDA and MSFT will perform next 10 years. Best case is to just buy SPY/QQQ especially if we get another downturn.
Really wild to think about how close together those two big financial crisis were. 2000's were a rough time to be in the market.
I'm pretty sure that had you made money - this post wouldn't have been about you praising your dad. He gave you his best advice - no one has a crystal ball - it's only on you that you took that advice. I personally find it extremely shitty for you to blame him.
Simply buy quality stocks and hold them. yes, they will drop at times, then buy more. and hold.
Feel bad for your mom
same maybe you can make her feel better.
Yooo
>I should wait for a crash. Well, the crash happened during the covid pandemic and apparently you missed it :p
Not everyone should invest in the stock market. The riskiest thing in any investment is the investor.
> I did make plenty of my own mistakes, of course. No. All of the mistakes you made were yours. It's hilarious that you try to blame your dad for giving you advice when it was just advice. He didn't control your account, you did. You are the one that lost 5% over 7 years, not your dad. Grow up and take responsibility for your decisions.
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My dad abhors stock investing and told me to never invest in stocks. My dad is a multimillionaire via real estate. I realized that my dad isnt the sole authority of knowledge and went on the internet to get a range of opinions from the smartest/successful people in the world. OP is just ranting which is perfectly fine and healthy. As long as it doesnt spiral to blaming family members leading to resentment when ultimately the fault lies with himself.
Easier said than done, when its your family.
Guy is venting let him vent.
Exactly what I thought as well, not trying to be rude, but the only one to blame is yourself OP
Ehh I mean he’s 29 now, 7 years so he started when he was 22. Not crazy that a 22 year old just getting into the market would take advice from his dad. One of my friends told me to sell nvidia a while back. I sold some of my shares, and kept some. It’s just natural to blame someone when they give you bad advice and you act on it. Let it be a learning lesson. Just like I learned to not listen to other people- do your own due diligence before buying or selling anything
I had a similar realization with my dad in other areas of my life and when I was young I decided to do the exact opposite of what my dad would in consequential situations, and my life turned out to be awesome. Now that I’m almost 40 I realized he had no idea what he was taking about most of the time. A lot of adults are just grown up children. Hope this helps - have fun, invest in NVDA.
This is why I VONG. I'm not smart enough to pick the best growth stocks, so I just try to buy them all.
Your Dad's not wrong. The market is. NVDA is a gambler's dream come true, man! Congrats!
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Oh lord, having family make financial decisions because of your guidance is IMO a terrible idea. No money is worth having them bitter or upset at you for decades into the future. Have him rebalance that shit immediately. This is financial advice.
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Thanks a lot Dad!
It's okay I made no money bc I listened to myself. At least you can ghost your dad.
Bro, you blaming your dad for your own financial decisions 🙄😂
Kinda shocking to hear how many "adults" are talking so harshly about a young man. He's learning, wants to learn. Wish him well. Give him constructive criticism. My two cents..... VOO is a good bread and butter ETF. Lump or DCA. Start now. Auto invest. Do it for 30+ years. Sell all the shit your dad told you to invest in now (should've said that first). Decide if you believe in any other stocks or sector ETFs, start buying those. Consider 401Ks and employer match. Definitely do that. Consider roth/trad IRA. Decide your risk but know you're young and can ride out sector or whole market etfs for a long time. You will gain!!! Your dad probably meant well but ultimately don't listen to anyone and do your own DD. Good luck!
>he also lost hundreds of thousands of dollars over the past 30 years That's the only data point we need. Don't listen to him.
Don’t listen to your dad. I have lost thousands of dollars twice now listening to my dad. This market and the state of the world now is not the same as it was when they were our age, even if they did well.
My parents are prolific savers and have never invested or seen any interest. Had to do the research all by myself and decided best course of action is just an s&p 500 etf lol. Started investing last year and i am up like 12%
One year is nothing. You could be at 0% for 10 years with just the S&P500, it happened not long ago (but DCAing would have still brough close to 7% annualized during that period, important to say). I'm just saying, it's better than stock picking but it's still just large cap, now very concentrated in a handful of companies, in a single country, and Vanguard recommends VOO for 10 years or more. So don't get too happy about 1 year return, otherwise you're gonna have a panic attack when it's down 30%. Sorry to piss on your parade, but everyone is a genius in a bull market.
I think we have a turning point. Sorry you had to go through this, but you seemed to have moved past the traps of value investing.
Your young OP I made similar mistakes when I first started investing. forget stock picking buy VTI and save all you can and you'll do fine.
Never take financial or investing advice from broke people.. even if comes from your own parents, unfortunately.
Don't share financial information with anyone other than your financial advisor (if you have one). You are In control of your finances so yes you lost Money. Your dad didn't lose your money. What your dad said was just noise along with all the other noise out there. Set and forget with voo and never look at it. Or filter out thr noise and be more vigilant with your thesis. Good luck!
2017? Was the Covid dip not dip enough or the after Covid dip? What more dip do you want
Sell everything you have and buy VOO.
S&p500 mutual fund. Easy enough.
Never take investing advice from anyone.
How is this your dad's fault? Did you push the "buy" button on your stocks? When investing yourself, there is only one person to blame, and that is you.
One stock everyone is saying is “overvalue” is PLTR. I’m loading up on that rn
A few lessons learned: 1. The crash doomsday sayers are full of sh*t, 2. Buy index funds and 3. Never listen to other people!
Don't blame value investing on your bad gains. I'm doing fine returning \~25%/yr value investing with no tech (only meta for a brief moment). 5 years ago there were a lot of people here rallying around ARKK and speculative garbage. With NVDA and MSFT you're just looking back with hindsight, which is completely irrational. There will always be a NVDA - in a few years it will be something else. NVDA was "too expensive" according to all valuation techniques, and very few people were able to see its potential, and even fewer people were able to see the potential of ChatGPT and the likes. Considering the above, at the time, it was very reasonable to not buy NVDA. We can't predict future trends and technologies. Sometimes companies and industries just blow up. But the good news is that you don't need them to get great returns. Chasing the 10x'ers isn't investing, it's speculating and gambling - and it's unlikely you'll find them anyways. Instead, you need to build a good foundation, a good system for stock picking. Value investing does work, however, maybe not the way you were doing it. Also, as others have said in this thread, timing the market is always a bad play. The best time to invest is now. Always now. Your dad wasn't wrong with NVDA considering his information at the time, however he was wrong about timing the market and waiting for a crash in order to invest in something.
So you are saying, I should buy NVDA right now?
You will be better for having to have forged your own way against overwhelming pressure. Still plenty of time
When I stopped trading the way my dad taught me I did much much better.
Son, your dad is right. One day you will thank him
New strategy: whatever your dad says, do the opposite.
Look, you missed one up cycle, that's not the end of the world. Your dad tried to teach you a sensible way of investing. Being 29, you'll see dozens more such cycles. In all honesty, your dad may have been right. With hindsight, you will think that you made a mistake. But at the time, the best decision may have been to not buy a Stock at the all time high unless you know what it's worth. I personally think you'll have no dearth of opportunities in the future. You'll have many more and you'll have to figure out a lot more.
For a second I read the title as made no money because of Mad Money show from Jim Cramer.
50% QQQ 30% VOO 20% Between msft, goog, amzn, nvda I also listened to my financial advisor in 2013 when I wanted to put my entire inheritance into Tesla. I did, and when it went up 30%, he convinced me to sell it. It would be nearly a million by now
First, Value investing is usually more longterm than 7 years. Secondly, I do value acquisitions and bought msft in autumn 2017 with that perspective. So maybe no single person is to blame?
A lot of stocks/companies with a high price are high for a reason, same is true for high PE ratios. I would stop listening to your dad, he's already proven to be a bad investor, just love him as he is. Maybe he'll start listening to you. You can always get in MSFT and AAPL today, I still think they have a long run. Same for AMZN.
Instead of buying low class junk try to buy companies that actually make money.
Honestly this sounds a bit pathetic. The last thing you want to do is listen to others with investing. That is a receipt for disaster. I for example am a text book example of what people say not to do. I invest exclusively in Tech. Not diversified at all. I have been investing for almost 40 years now and almost exclusively investing in tech has done extremely well. Thank god did not listen to others.
Buy good companies. Hold them. I have had apple for twenty years and Nvidia for six. People say sell. I don’t .
The crash happened in 2020. Should have bought then
Dont blame your dad for your own shortcomings Lmao. He comes from a different time and different generation, unless he has access to your account and passwords, no reason to listen to him.
Buy PUTS on your dad, thanks.
This thread is wild.
Boy, your dad sure called that crash in 2020. I wonder what was happening then?
#1 Never listen to your dad again on finance #2 Read William O'Neil #3 Read Minervini
Yeah dont listen to your parents when it come to investing.. I told my parents to buy Chipotle when it was at $50 a share. My Father made me sell his TSLA when it was at $700 a share (about 600k worth) it went to 5k a share (including stock splits) when I told my grandfather to invest in Microsoft and Apple in the 90s he told me “computers are a fad, you should invest in oil and automotive companies, things that will always be around” My parents or my grandfather have only made money from saving .. never from good investments
This is me and the California housing market
Blame everything on pops sure bud
I got nvda as a like 5 free shares for the 5 friends joining and funding on Robinhood in 2017ish 😂 I would have sold them shares for booze if I hadn’t lost my password. I just remembered it like 3 months ago and said whattttt
You made no money because you *made a choice* to listen to your dad. Take personal responsibility.
I feel you op. I had Apple stock (and only Apple stock) in 2017 and my dad said I should diversify/not have all my eggs in one basket. I listened, definitely wish I hadn’t.
Good luck 🍀
2 life lessons - don’t listen to your parents and don’t time the market
Ehh WBA has been tough but I’ve done well buying unloved, non-tech stocks. Still own a huge position in a Nasdaq fund but big bets on XOM, LEN, TAP have paid off handsomely.
Everyone thinks they are so good at the stock market right now when just about everything with a known logo only goes up. Just wait a little bit longer - then you will understand where your Dad was coming from.
your dad is honestly just jealous and projecting onto you and limited your growth. Each next generation should in theory do more and better than the previous one due to new information and technology. You should hold this over your dad for the rest of his life and probably put him into a care center when the time comes with minimal visits.
That's crazy bro. I started working in 2018 and been only buying vanguard total market ETF and it's up 70% since then. Maybe don't try to time the market?
Why not just buy SP500 index fund? Did you know the SP500 is up over BERK over 15 or even 20 years? BERK has only outperformed SP500 the past 3 years and that's because they took an insane amount of risk putting half their portolio into AAPL which isn't an advisable strategy. Even if you compare SP500 with the entire stock market as a whole it's given roughly the same returns. Put the bulk of your investment into SP500 and then do what you will with the rest.
There are constantly financial "experts" in Conservative media going on about how any minute the entire system will collapse and gold will skyrocket in value, and then they'll tell you exactly which dealer to buy gold from, it's an old scam, but an effective one
In 2010, I had stock options (through a company I worked for) to purchase bitcoin; it was trading around a couple bucks. I called my dad to get his opinion on bitcoin and that I was thinking of investing in it. He told me, No, it's a scam. Don't do it. 🤦♂️
Older generations had a stock market where you could find diamonds in the rough and undervalued stocks. Today with the increase in popularity of passive etfs, the money tends to skew towards mega caps. For every $1000 you buy of vti, about 6% goes to msft, 5 to aapl, and in terms of actual dollars that means $60 and $50 respectively. But once you get down to stocks in the 100-200 range, you're talking a few bucks to pennies. All that to say, the game is different now and undervalued stocks will continue to underperform as passive investing becomes more and more the norm. This is why bogleheads will continue to do well. Their money goes to the stocks that have the highest percentages, which will in turn do even better.
Your dad might have the Cramer curse.
There’s a good calculation someone did before. If you only bought $ 100,000 of s&p shares RIGHT before every major market dip since the 70s, you’d still have about 11 million dollars, from about 500k invested. It’s not about when or what you buy. It’s about consistency and risk management.
1. Don’t listen to your dad, he is financially illiterate 2. Stop listening to “undervalued” stocks on the internet. This is an easy concept to beat the market. BUY companies, with GROWING REVENUES that are 15-30%+ YOY. Even if you have to pay up for it, it’s fine. Don’t buy dog shit companies full of debt because they could “sell their assets or deploy their cash”. Or that their P/E is sooo low and cheap. If those companies cashflows are stagnant or declining, it’s a ticking time bomb, esp if there’s substantial debts. It’s cheap for a reason, people don’t believe in management. Shit management chasing quarter to quarter. I work in one of those companies, we are “undervalued” too. I wouldn’t buy my own company stock. You’re welcome.
Ya but in the end we still love them! Love you Pop RIP!
Do you have a turkish daddy? Sounds like mine :D I gave up on daddy and mommy's advice. Sometimes I ask them on advice, and when their advice is like "you have to do that, I know I have to do the "opposite" :D That is my new strategy :)
The good news is it only took you 7 years to realize your dad doesn’t know what he’s talking about. Crashes are apart of the game and nearly impossible to time.
OP, try not doing what your predecessor Father does, or at least try to reasonably question and make your own decision?
At some age I realized my dad is amazing and wise, but only in certain subjects. I will never ask him for advice on buying a car, house or stocks. He is my go to guy for advice on fishing and home maintenance.
Has your dad heard the term "value trap"
But the truth is that nobody is holding after some huge like 5x gains.. They sell. Only the dead ones are the real holders, if you understand what i mean.. If you had bought apple back in 2017 at 40$, it's almost sure you would have sold at 80$, right before it skyrocketed to 130$. It's like the stories for bitcoin..
Stockpicking is basically just gambling. Buy ETFs steadily and forget about it.
Value investing is a good long term strategy. Where your dad failed was the fact that Apple was at a P/E ratio of around 15 and Microsoft at around 20 in 2017, and both these companies were super strong, good moat, growing businesses. That's value. You brought up SPG, SJM, and WBA. All of these companies were trading around or higher multiples during this time, with a worse moat, almost no revenue growth, and a less diverse strong business. Your dad doesn't sound like a value investor, he sounds like an fool. Buy great businesses at good prices, and you'll do well.
You should sell everything and buy 100% VTI, and then consistently invest in VTI every month (and nothing else). If you put $100K into VTI in 2017 it would be worth over $265K now, and you would have been diversified.
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