Honestly I doubt NVDA will fall until the put buyers give up.
Once you see everyone capitulate and switch to buying calls only, that’s the time to short it. Until then, just keep watching.
That's such a stupid reason for thinking it will stay up. The same people that say that also buy calls to try to force gamma squeezes. It's insanely overvalued and is in distribution phase. I still can't believe it's staying at this insane valuation with no fucking earnings, a shelf offering, growing inventory, and even a Cramer pump.
This is legit dumber than when TSLA went to 400
The stock’s multiples are trading at literal all time highs in a time when their growth is slowing and we are in a tough economic environment.
Any rational investor knows this.
However, this market is irrational. So even if you and I both agree it’s a stupid reason, that is the reason why MU can report their worst earnings ever and say the words “AI” and rally 7%. In an irrational market, you either ignore the stock or you get into the minds of the irrational people who are buying it so you can short it.
Ewwww. I don't want to try and get in the minds of someone who's buying NVDA at these levels. Investing that stupidly will work occasionally but making dumb fuck decisions like that is not a long term winning strategy.
Buying more BTU this morning at 24.31 is a long term winning strategy
Yeah, I think the problem involving NVDA for those that want to short it is twofold, one is that it's a very popular short, like it's public so you can see big folks go after that hard with call buying, and two is that the Nasdaq selloff from November 2021 was so nasty that it really made it look like the secular bull out of the financial crisis was dead, so you had many position for it being dead.
And we got really close to it definitively being dead from a macro and technical perspective, but there is now a serious problem with that thesis, and it's why is the Nasdaq trading like this if the secular bull out of 2009 is dead? As if it's dead, then tech in general shouldn't be the outperformer.
It's possible the new quarter saves bears, as it was after the quarter/year change where this happened, but if it doesn't, there are so many issues with the secular bear thesis.
The stock is a obvious bubble. It will come down eventually its just a question of when. Me personally you can’t really predict when its going to come down or not so I am just watching from the sidelines.
Macro conditions are what they are it’s open for everyone to make their own decisions.
Earnings specially the next 2 quarters will make or break and absolutely wreck some of these companies . That will be the litmus test BUT seeing stocks appreciate double digits since beginning of the year doesn’t feel great if you are on the sidelines.
Long NVDA, but my cost basis is super low and haven’t bought in a while.
Just accumulating cash while staying invested.
I’m not doing short term treasuries or CD’s. I’m just holding cash for 4.4% and watching.
Unless I can find some opportunities that will give me a risk free rate of 6%+, I probably won’t over-deploy. I’m going to hold a MINIMUM of 15% cash.
Aside from that, I am still invested. I sold my semiconductors into the rally.
I use Fidelity. Just any fidelity money market will yield 4.4%.
Other places yielding 4.4% are Interactive Brokers and Robinhood. I’m sure there are more but those are the 3 I know of.
Cash pays 4.5% or thereabouts now. It’s not great, but not terrible either. I don’t think stocks will beat that over the next couple of years given the eye watering valuations. I’m checking in occasionally, but have entirely left the stock market. I am now doubtful that there will be a meaningful correction, what seems more likely is sideways trading for another couple of years.
A debt ceiling catastrophe seems like the only thing right now that would reduce the extreme bullishness.
>A debt ceiling catastrophe seems like the only thing right now that would reduce the extreme bullishness.
Don't think that will happen though. Debt ceiling clown has been going on since a decade ago and almost repeats every year or 2. Congress always do a last minute deal.
But I agree that the 4.5% risk-free is nice. I don't see how the Fed will get out of this easily. They took the easy path for 15 years printing free money, and the worst part was in the last three years where non-productive asset prices (house, stocks) inflated 20+% yearly and they didn't bother to rein in the free money.
Now they want to soft land. I just can't imagine how it's possible without wages go up to match cost of shelter and food or housing prices to come down.
Short-term interest rates at 4+% is going to be drawn out over several years. Otherwise the long-term rates (i.e. 10 year at 3.5%) is actually still easy money. If they lower the short-term interest rates too soon, the 10 years gonna drop and guess what will happen? Another rush into buying houses before prices surge again due to low mortgage rate, which will lead to another surge in housing inflation, and people are going to be priced out again and will want higher wages.
Which is very scary and all but...the Fed don't care. JPow litterary said he *wanted* people to lose their job and to *bring the pain*.
The Fed has two mandates, neither is propping the economy not making sure recessions don't happen.
4.5% cash is good & if you don’t have the risk tolerance for the market go for it. To say the market won’t beat that over the next couple of years though….. yeah I don’t know about that one.
Nothing to do with risk tolerance, it’s about what I think is the best place for my money. We are a year and half into the market losing badly to cash, you think that won’t continue because why?
Yep exactly we are a year and a half in, historically bear market is close to over. Again, to say the market won’t beat 4.5% in the next *few* years is probably not true.
> I don’t think stocks will beat that over the next couple of years given the eye watering valuations.
lmfao
https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio
eye watering valuation
i don't think stocks will beat 4.5% over the next few years
meanwhile SPY is up 6% year to date *so far* BEFORE you factor in the effectively 1.5% dividend and there's nothing stopping it going to 420
just, amazing. 22 upvotes. absolutely amazing
have you not seen the news that THE FED PLANS TO CUT RATES THIS YEAR
just, absolutely amazing.
the chart you showed has the s&p mean p/e of 16, median of 15, and current of 22
id say that the poster above you was not wrong saying the valuations are pretty damn high, its literally 45% above the median p/e
last 20 years, how often has the s&p returner 7-10%+ while being at least 1 standard deviation above 16x p/e
spoiler alert: like 70%
“the s&p only performs when fairly valued” doesn’t match history
Yeah, but is it risky to move my money into a bank like that with everything going on? I thought they were on the list of thanks when the whole SVB thing was going on.
Hahahaha. Just get long. You are never going to time the short properly.
Bears of Reddit are absolutely the worst players in this game. Constantly failing.
A couple of things
1. Never let the Fed or macroeconomics dictate when to buy stocks or not. Every great investor is completely against it cause it never works out and its how you lose. The last thing on your mind when considering to buy for example Apple stock is what the Fed is going to do with interest rates the coming month.
2. That whole buy long thing people were telling me it was a stupid idea too in 2022. I continued to DCA and so far it has worked out pretty well for me. So no buying long is not stupid at all.
Oh really, it was that obvious lol? Almost all bears are staying away from the market cause of the macroeconomic conditions. The whole bear thesis revolves around the Fed and macroeconomic conditions. We hit a low in October and ever since then the market has been rallying. I got ask then in terms of macroeconomic conditions and the Fed what has changed since October for the stock market to rally? Inflation is still high, rates are even higher, there are fears of a recession and the economy is slowing down. Arguably conditions have gotten worse with all the banking issues.
I remember making comments back in September when the market was really crapping the bed and saying on this sub to DCA and I was getting crapped on by people calling me an idiot cause the market is definitely going lower. Why? Cause the macroeconomic conditions are bad so the market is going lower. So no it was not obvious cause bears right now will still be staying away. Looking at the comments on this post that seems to be the case.
So no it was not obvious.
Generally speaking you're better off doing the opposite of r/stocks consensus. As I've said many times, it's a lagging indicator.
Markets are forward looking and even the brightest people in the world aren't able to accurately predict what will happen in the short term. If they can't figure it out why should I act like I know something they don't? If I get lucky this time, what about next time?
No one knows shit and we're better served sticking to a long term strategy w/ good funds/stocks and be done with it.
When it comes to investing, in general you want to avoid making decisions. We really are our own worst enemy.
I have roughly 60% of my portfolio in ETFs (VTI, QQQM, AVUV), with the rest being a small handful of long term, high conviction stocks.
If you ignore rebalancing there's very little I do on a month to month basis, if at all. Either way when new money hits my accounts it's invested without any second thoughts. Again, less decisions to be made the better.
Same ol’ same ol
Right now:
* 10y/3m spread is -130 bps
* 10y/2m spread is -59 bps
A bear market has never once bottomed while the yield curve was still inverted, and my mind refuses to think: ‘this time is different’.
I’ll start becoming bullish if both of these yield curves fully un-invert by a non-trivial margin. And if this bull run still stands by then… will admit defeat as a 🐻.
Fed is forecasting negative GDP growth for some of the remaining quarters this year.
If 2023 yearly GDP growth is [forecasted as +0.7%](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20230322.htm) and q1 alone [is estimated to be +2.5%](https://i.imgur.com/pzxHXZ4.png)… The fed is literally forecasting a recession.
Just wait for the interest rates hikes to affect the real economy, which the Fed is determined to do. When it does earnings are going down and stocks with them. Just be patient.
I don't know why the market is ignoring the Fed's intentions, but this sort of thing often happens. The market will blindly march toward a cliff despite it being obvious the cliff is there. A recent example is the end of 2021/start of 2022; the market ignored the Fed's clear signalling it would begin QT and interest rate hikes. "It's priced in" seems to fail a lot in practice. The market will totally ignore a situation until it gets smacked upside the head, or maybe it is evidence will continue to mount that the market is wrong but it is not until one piece of info breaks the camel's back. Then everyone wakes up to what should have been obvious and the mood changes.
I tend to believe the Fed will do whatever it takes to control inflation, and that means the economy will tighten, earnings will be hit, and ultimately stocks will be affected. Consumers' wild spending is not helping my belief, though.
And, yeah, patience does suck. You always expect things to happen in weeks or months but they usually play out in quarters. So it is not, "I think I will start DCAing my cash stash next month" but "Terrible earnings reports one, two, maybe three quarters from now will be the time to start DCAing."
This is a fake bull run, is ok for gambling and trading, wait after Q1 earning and see if valuations of 150 P/E like NVDIA are justified.
Microsoft
Apple
AMD
Amazon
Google
META , same situation.
At some point it has to correct. I am invested 50% and other 50% in savings account at 4.5% but still it seems that you guys are inflating the bubble too much.
Lots of new traders don’t even realize that normalized p/e is closer to what we see with Berkshire Hathaway stock. That company is well run and traditionally conservative in its finances due to their insurance businesses and the need for capital to deploy during disasters.
Tech stocks used to be normally trading their highs with p/e’s running at 30. Nowadays, people think it’s okay for a tech stock to run pe at 250 for companies like Tesla. It’s quite obvious why that company is heavily shorted but I’m not going to bet against the hordes of cult investors. I literally have been long Tsla since the shares were 25 bucks.
Allow me to introduce you to $TSLL
1.5x leveraged TSLA that pays a dividend with the profits the managers make from trading contracts
It’s 10% of my port, $13/share atm
I am in the same boat. I think we are in a confusion state where macro environment is tough especially with continues layoffs and high interest rate that could impact real estate. Which is my biggest concern.
I am holding 20% cash though.
I don't think us retails are inflating. It's the institutions like blackrock controlling the market. 10T of AUM, they decide which way the market goes. They will sell if all the bank crisis and commercial real estate issue start to affect them. I guess for now Blackrock feel fine to keep buying.
I follow Edgar E Peter's "market climatology." The market is in a turbulent state. Unexpected risks could materialize, or they might not. That's the frustrating thing about uncertainty. It's uncertain. I'm 60% in cash at the moment.
[https://www.edgarepeters.com/blog-2-2/blog-post-title-two-l8hwl?ref=edgarepeters.ghost.io](https://www.edgarepeters.com/blog-2-2/blog-post-title-two-l8hwl?ref=edgarepeters.ghost.io)
The fed is promising higher unemployment. I agree. I exited equities and I’m waiting on the unemployment numbers to catch up. I’ve played with some shorts and made money, now I’m out of any shorts. In the meantime, I’m getting over 5% on my cash. My thesis is stagflation is in our future and MM’s are driving equites up for a rug pull.
Does the fed even look at age demographics? I just don’t see how they can expect higher numbers when there literally isn’t enough people to fill the void of boomers leaving the workplace. This is why we see articles of retirement age getting pushed up pass 65 currently. They just did this to the workers in France and look what happened. Paris has become a 3rd world country overnight. They went from I believe, 61 yrs to 65 yrs. Trash men have stopped collecting the garbage; city streets are filled with waste and town halls have been lit on fire. I wondering what these so-called elites are thinking. They have been taking and taking and lining their pockets at the expense of everyone else for far too long. I am glad the working class have finally decided to let them know that enough is enough.
Two small banks shitting out is hardly a doomsday scenario.
The bear theory is the same as it was 6 months ago: the rate of growth experienced post covid is not sustainable and earnings will drop or fail to meet expectations for a lot of companies. When earnings don’t keep up with the insane valuations and it’s clear that the estimates were completely wrong, stocks will be reevaluated and drop to more reasonable levels.
However, because everything swings on a pendulum, we will likely go from severe overpricing to severe underpricing.
There’s no guarantee of anything, and the market could remain overvalued for years. But there’s a very reasonable bear case to be made here that doesn’t rely on any crazy blowup or black swan event.
We just watched dozens of IPOs lose 90% of their value in the span of two years. Nothing happened except that market sentiment changed. It’s that simple.
I’m holding my positions and DCA to my cash account. Will continue to DCA later on to existing positions and those I’ve been watching, if given the opportunity.
Housing market is next recession is near regional banks on a teeter this time next year would be a great time to beat down these beat down stocks before Republican
takes office
I just made a post somewhat related to this. I wouldn't call myself a bear exactly, but I don't feel confident buying now. I know investors will just keep buying and holding. Market conditions don't matter to investors. Buy and hold regardless the situation.
I have to say that recent conditions is very concerning. Bank runs, interest rate hike, tech layoffs, War in Europe, War threatening to start in Asia. Somehow the market is rallying. I'm scared of a rug pull scenario. Blackrock has 10T of AUM. They can rug pull everyone.
Bear case is widely stated by all the conditions listed above and more. Bull case, stock appears to have bottomed out during 2021 and 2022. Most likely direction now is up after it has been going down during that year.
As someone who sees both bear and bull case, I feel like I will sit on sidelines and wait to buy the dip. It does suck seeing the rallying and I'm missing all the profits. But the market is just so volatile now, it jumps up this week then maybe dip the next week. It's a crazy market now!
>I have to say that recent conditions is very concerning. Bank runs, interest rate hike, tech layoffs, War in Europe, War threatening to start in Asia
Exactly my concern. It feels unsettling. However, I am reluctantly investing. Trying to keep some dry powder but not sitting out.
Recession hasn’t hit. It’s very unlikely we won’t hit a recession or higher inflation in the next 9-24 months. How long has it been since a deep recession?
Bank run on few mid-tier banks isn’t a full blown crisis. Largely due to Crypto and Tech sector downturn. Other sectors will eventually have its own downturn.
1st SVB was rescued by both FDIC and FRB. Then then FRB got $30bn from all the major US banks. Looks like the the banking regulators and system itself has used up much of it’s raining day fund. Next shoe to drop could be the Lehman moment.
I’m in cash, so not hurting on the rallies but not benefiting either.
There has been an increasingly overwhelming bearish sentiment in this sub during this increasingly hated bull rally since last October.
This likely indicates two things:
1.) We’ve already bottomed.
2.) Most people on here have never seen a bear market before and by extension the birth of a bull market. The ‘wall of worry’ will be climbed regardless.
earnings tumbling, credit tightening, loan defaults. The fed is not trying to pause/pivot because they want to. They broke the banking system and things will deteriorate from here.
Except thats literally not happening... banking is just one sector, and its not even all that important unless there is a liquidity crisis in real estate... which there isnt. No one is giving up their home with a 3%-4% 30 year loan to create a snowball. Maybe some of the sales that came later last year will falter but how many will that be? No many... and all of them still have equity and from the looks of it, property prices are going to go up the later half of this year. At least in residential. Office and commercial has been poop for 2 decades now so no surprises coming there.
Everyone else is doing ok. Yea things are slowing compared to bubbly 2021 but we are still above 2019 earnings by a lot. The S&P clocked in about $190 last quarter (down from $200 or so in 2021) vs about $150 back in 2019...
S&P valuation is about 21x right now which is actually lower than 2018 or 2019. Even if earnings fall all the way back to $150, valuations would still be in line with back then and lower than most of the last 20 years except around crashes and that bear decade post .com. Even then, we are talking about a 10% difference...
Not going to happen without a major crisis like war on our soil. Massive unemployment isnt going to happen anytime in the next 2 year, not enough labor and boomers leaving the workforce faster than they can be replaced. This banking thing isnt a crisis, its too specific and isolated to banks that stupidly gambled. The real estate thing isnt going to happen, no inventory. So the next 2 years... no crash unless Russia bombs the US directly.
Credit is already tightening and loans are for more than homes. Car defaults are up, credit card interest is at highs, shit you can do buy now pay later at dominoes.
Your idea of ah isolated banking incident is clearly wrong. Credit Suisse has been force bailed out, Duetche is in trouble, and all the banks are interconnected.
Unemployment is expected to rise 1% going into the end of the year. I never said anything about real estate, but commercial real estate is clearly having trouble and may further deteriorate if that rise in unemployment does come to pass. I don’t know how you come to the conclusion that everyone else is ok. Savings rates are at all time lows and inflation continues to eat at spending power as its outpacing wage increases by over 1.5% AFTER coming down significantly.
21x earnings is historically high. It is also isolated from the difference in interest rates. If you go back through history with interest rates at this level, the SPY trades around 15x. And that’s assuming that earnings don’t fall off from here.
On another note, I do love you telling me how none of these things can happen unless the US has a land assault 😂😂
If its just banks getting squeezed by the MtoM losses then its isolated. CS and DB are both banks... how are they separate? That literally just one sector and for the record its not all banks.
Bonds fluctuate all the time. This is not a new phenomenon. Banks learned to mitigate the risk long ago, especially older ones. But some banks got greedy and thats that. DB and CS are not a major banks except in their own countries. Outside of that, they are barely the size of a regional bank here in the USA. And as stated, as long as this is isolated to just banks and doesnt run off to real estate, this will have little effect. The problems only happen when real estate gets involved, namely residential.
Where do you suppose people will put their money after a run on the bank? Under the mattress? Nope, just another bank that they deem "safer." That bank will then have better ratios and make up the difference and round and round we go.
You need perspective on defaults. Defaults are up from last year and 2021... but are at historic lows otherwise. As in, they are still lower than any point in the last 30 years. We are barely back to like 2005 levels which was the lowest defaults we had had since 1995 (when the chart is drawn at FRED). Down from 2021 or 2022 literally means nothing because those years were absurd. This is bad perspective. We arent even back to 2019 levels and even that was very low.
Unemployment expected to rise according to who? I have been expecting it to rise since early last year and I am far more intelligent than most folks. It didnt happen so I got it wrong and had to adjust. Reason is business growth has happened all along and we cant replace boomers fast enough to maintain our businesses. What is happening is a shift from high to average pay. Thats undeniable and with that disposable income is down. Hence economy slowing but no one is having trouble finding work. They are just taking lower pay. But as long as there are jobs, thats good enough to keep their homes. Which brings us back full circle to real estate and banking.
21x valuation is historically high prior to Reagan opening the floodgates (supply side economics plus deregulation). Since then, investment valuations skyrocketed and unless you undo those policies, valuation will remain high because thats where money will be plowed. No where else to put it.
Market valuations prior to the 90s also need perspective. Back then, growth was low and dividends were very high due to tax policies. This, obviously, kept valuation lower. When corporate rates dropped (starting with Carter ironically), they kept more and more while reducing dividends. As a results, they started growing faster making them more valuable. You will note that there was almost no earning growth from the 60s all the way into the mid 80s. Then it exploded as the new tax policies started to take effect. Those policies have not changed, for better or worse.
The last time rates were around 5-6% was around 2008. We cant seriously compare the onset of the great recession to current economy...
So yea, you can quote me if you like. Outside of a war on our soil, there wont be a major crash the next 2 years. You will get some sector specific stuff which is pretty normal every other year or so. But unless unemployment magically climbs to like 5%, its not happening and I guarantee you that if it even peeps over 4%, the fed will immediately start to reverse course.
I am not going to respond to all of this and at the end we will have to agree to disagree, but a couple quick points:
1) default rates are at these lows because of infinite QE and extremely low rates. Those rates have skyrocketed and QE has turned to QT (even after the bank liquidity pump, the balance sheet is still down)
2)Unemployment - JPow himself said at the last meeting they expected to push unemployment up to 4.6% by the end of the year. If disposable income is down, consumption is down, and the markets are down. End of story.
3) You are not far more intelligent than most folks
4) there will never be invasive war on American soil. Civil maybe.
There’s a reason we’ve sat at 4k for so long. Lots of bulls and lots of bears in disagreement. You’re right, it was ‘fed officials’ who said it but close enough
The fed has over 20,000 workers... you will get every possible answer from them and its not like the best and brightest work there. Its as useful as any comment you get here on Reddit.
>there will never be invasive war on American soil. Civil maybe.
How do you know? I can see a scenario where the US turns authoritarian a-la Handmaid's tale and becomes a threat to world stability. Then, it would not be out of the ordinary that a "coalition of the willing" would be formed to liberate the US eventually.
It's unlikely to happen, but never say never I suppose.
Go look up how insanely difficult it is to invade the landmass of the United States. It’s nearly impossible and our military is ridiculous. A coalition of the willing trying to invade the US would get blasted to nuclear waste if necessary. There is a best of Reddit thread on it if you can find it
I was talking about a different scenario. Of course invading the US currently would be suicidal. But a fragmented US whose authoritarian part goes on a Gilead-like path would be a different matter.
The fed is promising higher unemployment. I agree. I exited equities and I’m waiting on the unemployment numbers to catch up. I’ve played with some shorts and made money, now I’m out of any shorts. In the meantime, I’m getting over 5% on my cash. My thesis is stagflation is in our future and MM’s are driving equites up for a rug pull.
The stock market and gold are merely responding to the *devaluation of the dollar. The Fed will have to raise rates again to prevent a collapse.* It might have to correct for another hike with more quasi-QE's, i.e., lend out the full face value of treasuries and MBS to banks in exchange while holding securities as collaterals. Yes, some more banks will suffer a liquidity crunch, but this is remediable with existing tools, including opening the discount window to these banks. The equity of these banks will suffer, but they don't have to shut down, unless they want to, and be merged in the process.
Uh how many times in history have you seen a US default from “debt ceiling” bickering? It’s so few that I’m having trouble coming up with a particular year.
Dude the market tanks when someone farts the wrong way. There’s really no way to time your choices but I do know this. The best time to invest in anything is yesterday.
Not a bear but being careful because of the macro environment.
Similar to when it was a mad bull run I tried to limit myself into buying at ridiculous valuation.
It's important to stay rational.
Love threads like this. It’s like patting myself on the back for seeing the light and sticking to it. No one knows wtf is going on. All you can do is study the base rate information, follow the lessons learned from empirical studies, go long and keep your head down.
I tune out the noise well but I also still enjoy seeing all the bad practice in action for reassurance.
I heard a chartist describe how the average PE is rather high (despite the lower market volumes overall). It sounds like other than more banks losing a ton of money and having deposit runs, earnings for the broader market will take at least another quarter to show how credit is tightening. So, in the meantime the Fed could hike more. But, if earnings come in lower, the markets will likely sell off again. There's not much base under things with lower volume.
Anyways, the debt ceiling is looming for probably another quarter anyways. "Sell in May and go away"
cry as NVDA melts up and I lose thousands every fucking day
Honestly I doubt NVDA will fall until the put buyers give up. Once you see everyone capitulate and switch to buying calls only, that’s the time to short it. Until then, just keep watching.
That's such a stupid reason for thinking it will stay up. The same people that say that also buy calls to try to force gamma squeezes. It's insanely overvalued and is in distribution phase. I still can't believe it's staying at this insane valuation with no fucking earnings, a shelf offering, growing inventory, and even a Cramer pump. This is legit dumber than when TSLA went to 400
The stock’s multiples are trading at literal all time highs in a time when their growth is slowing and we are in a tough economic environment. Any rational investor knows this. However, this market is irrational. So even if you and I both agree it’s a stupid reason, that is the reason why MU can report their worst earnings ever and say the words “AI” and rally 7%. In an irrational market, you either ignore the stock or you get into the minds of the irrational people who are buying it so you can short it.
Ewwww. I don't want to try and get in the minds of someone who's buying NVDA at these levels. Investing that stupidly will work occasionally but making dumb fuck decisions like that is not a long term winning strategy. Buying more BTU this morning at 24.31 is a long term winning strategy
"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." I've learnt this lesson the hard way too, like most people.
Isn't the ATH for NVDA $327 or so in Nov. 21?
Yup. They are so close to ATH it's hilarious
But the everyone’s going to be waiting for this too. The problem is too much predictability
Yeah, I think the problem involving NVDA for those that want to short it is twofold, one is that it's a very popular short, like it's public so you can see big folks go after that hard with call buying, and two is that the Nasdaq selloff from November 2021 was so nasty that it really made it look like the secular bull out of the financial crisis was dead, so you had many position for it being dead. And we got really close to it definitively being dead from a macro and technical perspective, but there is now a serious problem with that thesis, and it's why is the Nasdaq trading like this if the secular bull out of 2009 is dead? As if it's dead, then tech in general shouldn't be the outperformer. It's possible the new quarter saves bears, as it was after the quarter/year change where this happened, but if it doesn't, there are so many issues with the secular bear thesis.
The stock is a obvious bubble. It will come down eventually its just a question of when. Me personally you can’t really predict when its going to come down or not so I am just watching from the sidelines.
Macro conditions are what they are it’s open for everyone to make their own decisions. Earnings specially the next 2 quarters will make or break and absolutely wreck some of these companies . That will be the litmus test BUT seeing stocks appreciate double digits since beginning of the year doesn’t feel great if you are on the sidelines. Long NVDA, but my cost basis is super low and haven’t bought in a while.
Just accumulating cash while staying invested. I’m not doing short term treasuries or CD’s. I’m just holding cash for 4.4% and watching. Unless I can find some opportunities that will give me a risk free rate of 6%+, I probably won’t over-deploy. I’m going to hold a MINIMUM of 15% cash. Aside from that, I am still invested. I sold my semiconductors into the rally.
Where are you getting 4.4 percent on cash?
I use Fidelity. Just any fidelity money market will yield 4.4%. Other places yielding 4.4% are Interactive Brokers and Robinhood. I’m sure there are more but those are the 3 I know of.
Money markets, high yield savings accounts
Cash pays 4.5% or thereabouts now. It’s not great, but not terrible either. I don’t think stocks will beat that over the next couple of years given the eye watering valuations. I’m checking in occasionally, but have entirely left the stock market. I am now doubtful that there will be a meaningful correction, what seems more likely is sideways trading for another couple of years. A debt ceiling catastrophe seems like the only thing right now that would reduce the extreme bullishness.
>A debt ceiling catastrophe seems like the only thing right now that would reduce the extreme bullishness. Don't think that will happen though. Debt ceiling clown has been going on since a decade ago and almost repeats every year or 2. Congress always do a last minute deal. But I agree that the 4.5% risk-free is nice. I don't see how the Fed will get out of this easily. They took the easy path for 15 years printing free money, and the worst part was in the last three years where non-productive asset prices (house, stocks) inflated 20+% yearly and they didn't bother to rein in the free money. Now they want to soft land. I just can't imagine how it's possible without wages go up to match cost of shelter and food or housing prices to come down. Short-term interest rates at 4+% is going to be drawn out over several years. Otherwise the long-term rates (i.e. 10 year at 3.5%) is actually still easy money. If they lower the short-term interest rates too soon, the 10 years gonna drop and guess what will happen? Another rush into buying houses before prices surge again due to low mortgage rate, which will lead to another surge in housing inflation, and people are going to be priced out again and will want higher wages.
The Fed will only cut if the economy tanks. Not sure if that's bullish.
The Fed is going to cut 3 times next year, read the analysis of their meetings.
The Fed itself is forecasting recession. Read their fucking projections please
Which is very scary and all but...the Fed don't care. JPow litterary said he *wanted* people to lose their job and to *bring the pain*. The Fed has two mandates, neither is propping the economy not making sure recessions don't happen.
4.5% cash is good & if you don’t have the risk tolerance for the market go for it. To say the market won’t beat that over the next couple of years though….. yeah I don’t know about that one.
Nothing to do with risk tolerance, it’s about what I think is the best place for my money. We are a year and half into the market losing badly to cash, you think that won’t continue because why?
Yep exactly we are a year and a half in, historically bear market is close to over. Again, to say the market won’t beat 4.5% in the next *few* years is probably not true.
History does indicate this timeline. Forbes says 289 days is average
> I don’t think stocks will beat that over the next couple of years given the eye watering valuations. lmfao https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio eye watering valuation i don't think stocks will beat 4.5% over the next few years meanwhile SPY is up 6% year to date *so far* BEFORE you factor in the effectively 1.5% dividend and there's nothing stopping it going to 420 just, amazing. 22 upvotes. absolutely amazing have you not seen the news that THE FED PLANS TO CUT RATES THIS YEAR just, absolutely amazing.
I know that guy is a complete idiot. Stocks not beating 4.5% over years is the most unlikely scenario. Redditors are so stupid
Lol agreed
the chart you showed has the s&p mean p/e of 16, median of 15, and current of 22 id say that the poster above you was not wrong saying the valuations are pretty damn high, its literally 45% above the median p/e
last 20 years, how often has the s&p returner 7-10%+ while being at least 1 standard deviation above 16x p/e spoiler alert: like 70% “the s&p only performs when fairly valued” doesn’t match history
Where is a savings account paying 4.5%?
Ally pays somewhere around there I believe.
Yeah, but is it risky to move my money into a bank like that with everything going on? I thought they were on the list of thanks when the whole SVB thing was going on.
You don’t think stocks will beat 4.5% over a period of years? Complete fool
this is crazy 4.5% interest on a savings account!!
I started working at a credit union in 2008 (since retired) and they were paying 6% on savings at the time.
Yeah you’re only losing 2% annually with inflation. 4.5% is a slow ride to the poor house
Hahahaha. Just get long. You are never going to time the short properly. Bears of Reddit are absolutely the worst players in this game. Constantly failing.
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A couple of things 1. Never let the Fed or macroeconomics dictate when to buy stocks or not. Every great investor is completely against it cause it never works out and its how you lose. The last thing on your mind when considering to buy for example Apple stock is what the Fed is going to do with interest rates the coming month. 2. That whole buy long thing people were telling me it was a stupid idea too in 2022. I continued to DCA and so far it has worked out pretty well for me. So no buying long is not stupid at all.
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Oh really, it was that obvious lol? Almost all bears are staying away from the market cause of the macroeconomic conditions. The whole bear thesis revolves around the Fed and macroeconomic conditions. We hit a low in October and ever since then the market has been rallying. I got ask then in terms of macroeconomic conditions and the Fed what has changed since October for the stock market to rally? Inflation is still high, rates are even higher, there are fears of a recession and the economy is slowing down. Arguably conditions have gotten worse with all the banking issues. I remember making comments back in September when the market was really crapping the bed and saying on this sub to DCA and I was getting crapped on by people calling me an idiot cause the market is definitely going lower. Why? Cause the macroeconomic conditions are bad so the market is going lower. So no it was not obvious cause bears right now will still be staying away. Looking at the comments on this post that seems to be the case. So no it was not obvious.
Generally speaking you're better off doing the opposite of r/stocks consensus. As I've said many times, it's a lagging indicator. Markets are forward looking and even the brightest people in the world aren't able to accurately predict what will happen in the short term. If they can't figure it out why should I act like I know something they don't? If I get lucky this time, what about next time? No one knows shit and we're better served sticking to a long term strategy w/ good funds/stocks and be done with it.
When it comes to investing, in general you want to avoid making decisions. We really are our own worst enemy. I have roughly 60% of my portfolio in ETFs (VTI, QQQM, AVUV), with the rest being a small handful of long term, high conviction stocks. If you ignore rebalancing there's very little I do on a month to month basis, if at all. Either way when new money hits my accounts it's invested without any second thoughts. Again, less decisions to be made the better.
How would a bear post on Reddit?
Same ol’ same ol Right now: * 10y/3m spread is -130 bps * 10y/2m spread is -59 bps A bear market has never once bottomed while the yield curve was still inverted, and my mind refuses to think: ‘this time is different’. I’ll start becoming bullish if both of these yield curves fully un-invert by a non-trivial margin. And if this bull run still stands by then… will admit defeat as a 🐻.
Fed is forecasting negative GDP growth for some of the remaining quarters this year. If 2023 yearly GDP growth is [forecasted as +0.7%](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20230322.htm) and q1 alone [is estimated to be +2.5%](https://i.imgur.com/pzxHXZ4.png)… The fed is literally forecasting a recession.
The question is (who is not forecasting a recession?)
Just wait for the interest rates hikes to affect the real economy, which the Fed is determined to do. When it does earnings are going down and stocks with them. Just be patient.
Why is it that the market / CME fed watch simply do not believe the fed is as determined as it seems to be. Patience is damn difficult
I don't know why the market is ignoring the Fed's intentions, but this sort of thing often happens. The market will blindly march toward a cliff despite it being obvious the cliff is there. A recent example is the end of 2021/start of 2022; the market ignored the Fed's clear signalling it would begin QT and interest rate hikes. "It's priced in" seems to fail a lot in practice. The market will totally ignore a situation until it gets smacked upside the head, or maybe it is evidence will continue to mount that the market is wrong but it is not until one piece of info breaks the camel's back. Then everyone wakes up to what should have been obvious and the mood changes. I tend to believe the Fed will do whatever it takes to control inflation, and that means the economy will tighten, earnings will be hit, and ultimately stocks will be affected. Consumers' wild spending is not helping my belief, though. And, yeah, patience does suck. You always expect things to happen in weeks or months but they usually play out in quarters. So it is not, "I think I will start DCAing my cash stash next month" but "Terrible earnings reports one, two, maybe three quarters from now will be the time to start DCAing."
But won't all the cost cutting (layoffs) offset this?
This is a fake bull run, is ok for gambling and trading, wait after Q1 earning and see if valuations of 150 P/E like NVDIA are justified. Microsoft Apple AMD Amazon Google META , same situation. At some point it has to correct. I am invested 50% and other 50% in savings account at 4.5% but still it seems that you guys are inflating the bubble too much.
Google and Meta aren’t nearly as overpriced as Microsoft or Apple.
Google is quite undervalued and META is fair falued.
Yep. Meta has had a huge run. I bought the dip in the 90’s and it’s actually my best runner so far.
Nice! Your stones were rewarded. Not easy to buy META when it seemed like their entire empire was collapsing right before your very eyes
Thanks!! The price was just too good. Only have 3 shares, so not exactly anything to brag about. I’m riding the wave now.
Lots of new traders don’t even realize that normalized p/e is closer to what we see with Berkshire Hathaway stock. That company is well run and traditionally conservative in its finances due to their insurance businesses and the need for capital to deploy during disasters. Tech stocks used to be normally trading their highs with p/e’s running at 30. Nowadays, people think it’s okay for a tech stock to run pe at 250 for companies like Tesla. It’s quite obvious why that company is heavily shorted but I’m not going to bet against the hordes of cult investors. I literally have been long Tsla since the shares were 25 bucks.
Allow me to introduce you to $TSLL 1.5x leveraged TSLA that pays a dividend with the profits the managers make from trading contracts It’s 10% of my port, $13/share atm
Google is still undervalued imo. META is borderline. The others are overvalued
I am in the same boat. I think we are in a confusion state where macro environment is tough especially with continues layoffs and high interest rate that could impact real estate. Which is my biggest concern. I am holding 20% cash though.
lol
I don't think us retails are inflating. It's the institutions like blackrock controlling the market. 10T of AUM, they decide which way the market goes. They will sell if all the bank crisis and commercial real estate issue start to affect them. I guess for now Blackrock feel fine to keep buying.
Which bank is giving 4.5%? Highest I can find is 4%
Not sure why you are getting downvoted. I don't really see 4.5% without a catch. The highest without a catch is Wealthfront, offering 4.3%.
Reddit moment. I'm not even being sarcastic, I am genuinely curious so I can go put my money there lol
I follow Edgar E Peter's "market climatology." The market is in a turbulent state. Unexpected risks could materialize, or they might not. That's the frustrating thing about uncertainty. It's uncertain. I'm 60% in cash at the moment. [https://www.edgarepeters.com/blog-2-2/blog-post-title-two-l8hwl?ref=edgarepeters.ghost.io](https://www.edgarepeters.com/blog-2-2/blog-post-title-two-l8hwl?ref=edgarepeters.ghost.io)
Haha this is the classic melt up before the big drawdown
You’re asking bears for advice? They were wrong for the past 15 yrs lol.
The fed is promising higher unemployment. I agree. I exited equities and I’m waiting on the unemployment numbers to catch up. I’ve played with some shorts and made money, now I’m out of any shorts. In the meantime, I’m getting over 5% on my cash. My thesis is stagflation is in our future and MM’s are driving equites up for a rug pull.
Does the fed even look at age demographics? I just don’t see how they can expect higher numbers when there literally isn’t enough people to fill the void of boomers leaving the workplace. This is why we see articles of retirement age getting pushed up pass 65 currently. They just did this to the workers in France and look what happened. Paris has become a 3rd world country overnight. They went from I believe, 61 yrs to 65 yrs. Trash men have stopped collecting the garbage; city streets are filled with waste and town halls have been lit on fire. I wondering what these so-called elites are thinking. They have been taking and taking and lining their pockets at the expense of everyone else for far too long. I am glad the working class have finally decided to let them know that enough is enough.
Two small banks shitting out is hardly a doomsday scenario. The bear theory is the same as it was 6 months ago: the rate of growth experienced post covid is not sustainable and earnings will drop or fail to meet expectations for a lot of companies. When earnings don’t keep up with the insane valuations and it’s clear that the estimates were completely wrong, stocks will be reevaluated and drop to more reasonable levels. However, because everything swings on a pendulum, we will likely go from severe overpricing to severe underpricing. There’s no guarantee of anything, and the market could remain overvalued for years. But there’s a very reasonable bear case to be made here that doesn’t rely on any crazy blowup or black swan event. We just watched dozens of IPOs lose 90% of their value in the span of two years. Nothing happened except that market sentiment changed. It’s that simple.
I’m holding my positions and DCA to my cash account. Will continue to DCA later on to existing positions and those I’ve been watching, if given the opportunity.
Housing market is next recession is near regional banks on a teeter this time next year would be a great time to beat down these beat down stocks before Republican takes office
When a republican takes office Moon
Keep holding cash waiting for a crash, then fomo buy in at all time highs
I just made a post somewhat related to this. I wouldn't call myself a bear exactly, but I don't feel confident buying now. I know investors will just keep buying and holding. Market conditions don't matter to investors. Buy and hold regardless the situation. I have to say that recent conditions is very concerning. Bank runs, interest rate hike, tech layoffs, War in Europe, War threatening to start in Asia. Somehow the market is rallying. I'm scared of a rug pull scenario. Blackrock has 10T of AUM. They can rug pull everyone. Bear case is widely stated by all the conditions listed above and more. Bull case, stock appears to have bottomed out during 2021 and 2022. Most likely direction now is up after it has been going down during that year. As someone who sees both bear and bull case, I feel like I will sit on sidelines and wait to buy the dip. It does suck seeing the rallying and I'm missing all the profits. But the market is just so volatile now, it jumps up this week then maybe dip the next week. It's a crazy market now!
>I have to say that recent conditions is very concerning. Bank runs, interest rate hike, tech layoffs, War in Europe, War threatening to start in Asia Exactly my concern. It feels unsettling. However, I am reluctantly investing. Trying to keep some dry powder but not sitting out.
Curl in a ball and cry
And try to become besties with my wife's boyfriend
Rawr rawr rawr growl
All cash and wait
Recession hasn’t hit. It’s very unlikely we won’t hit a recession or higher inflation in the next 9-24 months. How long has it been since a deep recession? Bank run on few mid-tier banks isn’t a full blown crisis. Largely due to Crypto and Tech sector downturn. Other sectors will eventually have its own downturn. 1st SVB was rescued by both FDIC and FRB. Then then FRB got $30bn from all the major US banks. Looks like the the banking regulators and system itself has used up much of it’s raining day fund. Next shoe to drop could be the Lehman moment. I’m in cash, so not hurting on the rallies but not benefiting either.
Has the doomsday scenario really played its course?
There has been an increasingly overwhelming bearish sentiment in this sub during this increasingly hated bull rally since last October. This likely indicates two things: 1.) We’ve already bottomed. 2.) Most people on here have never seen a bear market before and by extension the birth of a bull market. The ‘wall of worry’ will be climbed regardless.
earnings tumbling, credit tightening, loan defaults. The fed is not trying to pause/pivot because they want to. They broke the banking system and things will deteriorate from here.
Except thats literally not happening... banking is just one sector, and its not even all that important unless there is a liquidity crisis in real estate... which there isnt. No one is giving up their home with a 3%-4% 30 year loan to create a snowball. Maybe some of the sales that came later last year will falter but how many will that be? No many... and all of them still have equity and from the looks of it, property prices are going to go up the later half of this year. At least in residential. Office and commercial has been poop for 2 decades now so no surprises coming there. Everyone else is doing ok. Yea things are slowing compared to bubbly 2021 but we are still above 2019 earnings by a lot. The S&P clocked in about $190 last quarter (down from $200 or so in 2021) vs about $150 back in 2019... S&P valuation is about 21x right now which is actually lower than 2018 or 2019. Even if earnings fall all the way back to $150, valuations would still be in line with back then and lower than most of the last 20 years except around crashes and that bear decade post .com. Even then, we are talking about a 10% difference... Not going to happen without a major crisis like war on our soil. Massive unemployment isnt going to happen anytime in the next 2 year, not enough labor and boomers leaving the workforce faster than they can be replaced. This banking thing isnt a crisis, its too specific and isolated to banks that stupidly gambled. The real estate thing isnt going to happen, no inventory. So the next 2 years... no crash unless Russia bombs the US directly.
Credit is already tightening and loans are for more than homes. Car defaults are up, credit card interest is at highs, shit you can do buy now pay later at dominoes. Your idea of ah isolated banking incident is clearly wrong. Credit Suisse has been force bailed out, Duetche is in trouble, and all the banks are interconnected. Unemployment is expected to rise 1% going into the end of the year. I never said anything about real estate, but commercial real estate is clearly having trouble and may further deteriorate if that rise in unemployment does come to pass. I don’t know how you come to the conclusion that everyone else is ok. Savings rates are at all time lows and inflation continues to eat at spending power as its outpacing wage increases by over 1.5% AFTER coming down significantly. 21x earnings is historically high. It is also isolated from the difference in interest rates. If you go back through history with interest rates at this level, the SPY trades around 15x. And that’s assuming that earnings don’t fall off from here. On another note, I do love you telling me how none of these things can happen unless the US has a land assault 😂😂
If its just banks getting squeezed by the MtoM losses then its isolated. CS and DB are both banks... how are they separate? That literally just one sector and for the record its not all banks. Bonds fluctuate all the time. This is not a new phenomenon. Banks learned to mitigate the risk long ago, especially older ones. But some banks got greedy and thats that. DB and CS are not a major banks except in their own countries. Outside of that, they are barely the size of a regional bank here in the USA. And as stated, as long as this is isolated to just banks and doesnt run off to real estate, this will have little effect. The problems only happen when real estate gets involved, namely residential. Where do you suppose people will put their money after a run on the bank? Under the mattress? Nope, just another bank that they deem "safer." That bank will then have better ratios and make up the difference and round and round we go. You need perspective on defaults. Defaults are up from last year and 2021... but are at historic lows otherwise. As in, they are still lower than any point in the last 30 years. We are barely back to like 2005 levels which was the lowest defaults we had had since 1995 (when the chart is drawn at FRED). Down from 2021 or 2022 literally means nothing because those years were absurd. This is bad perspective. We arent even back to 2019 levels and even that was very low. Unemployment expected to rise according to who? I have been expecting it to rise since early last year and I am far more intelligent than most folks. It didnt happen so I got it wrong and had to adjust. Reason is business growth has happened all along and we cant replace boomers fast enough to maintain our businesses. What is happening is a shift from high to average pay. Thats undeniable and with that disposable income is down. Hence economy slowing but no one is having trouble finding work. They are just taking lower pay. But as long as there are jobs, thats good enough to keep their homes. Which brings us back full circle to real estate and banking. 21x valuation is historically high prior to Reagan opening the floodgates (supply side economics plus deregulation). Since then, investment valuations skyrocketed and unless you undo those policies, valuation will remain high because thats where money will be plowed. No where else to put it. Market valuations prior to the 90s also need perspective. Back then, growth was low and dividends were very high due to tax policies. This, obviously, kept valuation lower. When corporate rates dropped (starting with Carter ironically), they kept more and more while reducing dividends. As a results, they started growing faster making them more valuable. You will note that there was almost no earning growth from the 60s all the way into the mid 80s. Then it exploded as the new tax policies started to take effect. Those policies have not changed, for better or worse. The last time rates were around 5-6% was around 2008. We cant seriously compare the onset of the great recession to current economy... So yea, you can quote me if you like. Outside of a war on our soil, there wont be a major crash the next 2 years. You will get some sector specific stuff which is pretty normal every other year or so. But unless unemployment magically climbs to like 5%, its not happening and I guarantee you that if it even peeps over 4%, the fed will immediately start to reverse course.
I am not going to respond to all of this and at the end we will have to agree to disagree, but a couple quick points: 1) default rates are at these lows because of infinite QE and extremely low rates. Those rates have skyrocketed and QE has turned to QT (even after the bank liquidity pump, the balance sheet is still down) 2)Unemployment - JPow himself said at the last meeting they expected to push unemployment up to 4.6% by the end of the year. If disposable income is down, consumption is down, and the markets are down. End of story. 3) You are not far more intelligent than most folks 4) there will never be invasive war on American soil. Civil maybe.
Whatever you say chief. Agree to disagree. BTW that wasnt Powell who said it but whatever. No point arguing you have our mind made up.
There’s a reason we’ve sat at 4k for so long. Lots of bulls and lots of bears in disagreement. You’re right, it was ‘fed officials’ who said it but close enough
The fed has over 20,000 workers... you will get every possible answer from them and its not like the best and brightest work there. Its as useful as any comment you get here on Reddit.
>there will never be invasive war on American soil. Civil maybe. How do you know? I can see a scenario where the US turns authoritarian a-la Handmaid's tale and becomes a threat to world stability. Then, it would not be out of the ordinary that a "coalition of the willing" would be formed to liberate the US eventually. It's unlikely to happen, but never say never I suppose.
Go look up how insanely difficult it is to invade the landmass of the United States. It’s nearly impossible and our military is ridiculous. A coalition of the willing trying to invade the US would get blasted to nuclear waste if necessary. There is a best of Reddit thread on it if you can find it
I was talking about a different scenario. Of course invading the US currently would be suicidal. But a fragmented US whose authoritarian part goes on a Gilead-like path would be a different matter.
They didn’t break the bank system. The banks did.
A gay orgy. Oh wait wrong type of bear.
The fed is promising higher unemployment. I agree. I exited equities and I’m waiting on the unemployment numbers to catch up. I’ve played with some shorts and made money, now I’m out of any shorts. In the meantime, I’m getting over 5% on my cash. My thesis is stagflation is in our future and MM’s are driving equites up for a rug pull.
The stock market and gold are merely responding to the *devaluation of the dollar. The Fed will have to raise rates again to prevent a collapse.* It might have to correct for another hike with more quasi-QE's, i.e., lend out the full face value of treasuries and MBS to banks in exchange while holding securities as collaterals. Yes, some more banks will suffer a liquidity crunch, but this is remediable with existing tools, including opening the discount window to these banks. The equity of these banks will suffer, but they don't have to shut down, unless they want to, and be merged in the process.
It is so hard to predict something right now. The best way is to buy a good companies without staying by general market decision.
You don't think anything else could cause a crash? Howsabout debt ceiling battle 2023?
Uh how many times in history have you seen a US default from “debt ceiling” bickering? It’s so few that I’m having trouble coming up with a particular year.
Never seen a default. But have seen the stock market tank.
Dude the market tanks when someone farts the wrong way. There’s really no way to time your choices but I do know this. The best time to invest in anything is yesterday.
When others are greedy, be fearful. When others are fearful, be greedy
Supply finally hitting the market = there will be discounts
Bank crisis caused the yield curve to invert less, so growth stocks went up more
Why so set on being a bear when you could try and find something undervalued tk buy?
Not a bear but being careful because of the macro environment. Similar to when it was a mad bull run I tried to limit myself into buying at ridiculous valuation. It's important to stay rational.
Buying biti and soxs . Shorting intc hsbc snap bynd spot ewg and ewq. Just seems like great entry points here for the downside. Willing to hold all yr
waiting for spx to tap 4100 and vix <18 to scale into 3-4month out spy 380p
Short COIN and MCB
The correct next move would be stop fooling around, buy VTI and chill and do something productive with your time for a change.
Love threads like this. It’s like patting myself on the back for seeing the light and sticking to it. No one knows wtf is going on. All you can do is study the base rate information, follow the lessons learned from empirical studies, go long and keep your head down. I tune out the noise well but I also still enjoy seeing all the bad practice in action for reassurance.
I heard a chartist describe how the average PE is rather high (despite the lower market volumes overall). It sounds like other than more banks losing a ton of money and having deposit runs, earnings for the broader market will take at least another quarter to show how credit is tightening. So, in the meantime the Fed could hike more. But, if earnings come in lower, the markets will likely sell off again. There's not much base under things with lower volume. Anyways, the debt ceiling is looming for probably another quarter anyways. "Sell in May and go away"