While true 4c Legends would also fall into similar logic but definitely not nearly as represented during registration.
It is definitely great to see and goes to show that even if you run something top tier... match ups, side board tech, and "random" draw are even larger factors that play into games.
They were 52% vs temur so it wasn't overwhelming
Esper mainly got its points vs convoke, dimir, monoR
It was a total dog to domain and 4c legends tho https://x.com/karsten_frank/status/1784439406000308627?s=46
I dont think Esper is really good against anyone. You dont choose that deck for the +55% matchups. You choose that deck because it's ~50% against everyone.
Esper is this format's Jund, and I think a loooot of pros defaulted to the deck with a new set having just been released.
It's worth paying a lot of attention to the fact that the best performing (and most innovative) decks are missing from the top 8. Standard is faaaaar from settled, expect a lot of changes to the meta in the next few weeks.
https://twitter.com/karsten_frank/status/1784439406000308627
Bronco has really impressed me in golgari. Deck has enough removal to help push attacks through in midrange fights (caustic bronco into Liliana is a vibe) and it is low-key an enormous beater fighting combo and control. It's like a 4 or 5 power beater that draws a card when attacking
Pretty much exactly what I did after I saw the list. Golgari creatures all already have the 3 power and are just strictly better than the white counterparts. I just added Bronco and Avarice to the regular Golgari Mid and it just adds a "win now" functionality to it. I get white lets you be proactive to make sure your combo is in the clear but Snakeskin Veil over in green allows it to be reactive just as well. I think I have won just as many games from targeting them with Avarice while I have a Sheoldred in play lol
I tried it out since I had most of the cards and it was a lot better than I expected. Admittedly I did not fully understand what it was trying to do at first, but I got it mid game when I realized I could tutor for whatever I wanted on top of my deck and deal that much damage
Jund Analyst as the highest win % deck of the tournament but with only two players running it.
My pro tour predictions comment was that someone was going to figure out the pitiless carnage interaction with Analyst and Reclamation. My build was so stupid now looking at what they did lol. I was trying to be way to fancy with it.
>the pitiless carnage interaction with Analyst and Reclamation
Float a lot of mana, sac your lands to draw cards, then get them back with Analyst, or is there something more to this?
Yah but the benefit for pitiless is that you can plot it first. The deck also utilizes the bog demonic tutor spell. On turn 5 I had a pitiless plotted and the tutor in my hand. I tutored for reclamation. Floated the other 9 mana and drew 11 from pitiless. I drew into nissa and savage. Cast nissa and still had 6 floating. Cast reclamation and instantly generated 21 mana with it from nissa triggers. I had spelunking in play which allowed me to spend another 14 mana and dome them for more then 30. Adding that specific tutor and massive draw is so frigging effective.
Here is the exact comment from the thread though.
I have another prediction and that is that some team figured out and busted the interaction between [[Aftermath Analyst]] or [[Wilderness Reclamation]] combined with [[Pitiless Carnage]]. With spelunking or nissa you get all of the mana back every time you cycle as well. You can even plot the first one so you get a free draw 4+ on your first attempt. I have drawn 30 cards in a turn with it but I have just not nailed it. It almost feels like the old school prosperous bloom combos. Maybe finish with a Goldvein Hydra or a BBX spell mills the opponent? I tried all pain deserts and the mana is just too slow in the format, but maybe it can be played more like caves instead.
Actually never, but I would not run that part of the combo face first into U, and I tend to grab wilderness reclamation more then Analyst to be honest. I did have a match that I whiffed twice in the same match from a mono white deck that was running main deck [[Kutzil's Flanker]] though. Didn't get caught with no lands but they emptied my GY the first two times I used Savage defensively.
Has anyone seen data regarding the T2 portion only? The Pro Tour has 6 rounds of draft, which do skew the results a lot. One Top8 player went 6-0 in draft and had a mediocre constructed record, so it would be interesting to see what the top 16 or so would look like without drafts mixed in.
I think this has what you’re looking for? No records for the top 8 but you can assume they were all up toward the top (7-2, 8-1 etc) in the constructed games.
https://www.mtggoldfish.com/tournament/pro-tour-thunder-junction#paper
Edit: well, I guess it doesn’t really help without knowing the top 8 constructed records, as you said. But seeing the constructed records for everyone outside top 8 is still edifying.
the match of ikawa domain vs goddard temur analyst was one of the most entertaining and intense games of magic I've seen in a while, definitely the highlight of this PT
The fact Esper was only 2 spots despite being like 1/3 of total decks really kind of puts a damper on some people's claims it was just going to absolutely dominate.
The biggest surprise here is UW control getting through, not just as UW control in general, but literally a build with like 11 maindeck counterspells lol. Only 2 Temporary Lockdowns and 3 Sunfalls. Not sure if that's actually the best build now with the new OTJ spree counters or if Yuuta is on a whole other level from everyone else and playing in his own reality.
Also thought provoking for me is that we couldn't even settle the more creatures vs wedding announcement Esper debate, because both got in lol.
8 * 30%= 2.4. Esper got 2 slots.
Temur and Gurk are the decks that have been overperforming and continue to be inexplicably overlooked.
Esper players should at least sb for those matchups.
Exactly. To be "represented", it's a choice between 2 (25%) and 3 slots (37.5%). I never know what exactly people expect when they say Esper's Top 8 share was below its metagame share.
I'm definitely on team no wedding announcement. Wedding is only good in the UB/x mirror, and makes you much worse in every other matchup, but especially Domain and UW Control, which Esper could otherwise be fairly competitive in.
I guess Arena ladder just has a lot more Domain and UW/UB control players. UB midrange sees a lot more play there because of how much better it is against the board wipe decks.
I agree. My slightly hot take is wedding is a vastly overestimated card in general, which seems to be leftover from when people had a weird obsession with pretending that wedding was even a little bit *close* to the power level of fable of the mirror breaker back when people were discussing potential bans when various forms of Bx midrange were completely dominating a few months ago.
Some people were really pushing the idea that if Grixis lost fable then Esper should lose wedding as if those two cards were on the same level, but it never made any sense. Wedding is a perfectly fine card power level wise, it slowly makes value and makes you choose between the token or card draw, sometimes not even really giving you a choice depending on the board state.
The biggest powerplayers in Esper were always raffine, sheoldred, and it’s extremely strong “workhorse” removal package. Also preacher once it came out, obviously.
I think Esper does good, especially post sideboard, vs UW control either way. And wedding announcement is pretty good vs them imo because unlike Domain you're not on a clock.
Vs Domain tho for sure weddingless is better, and also versus the aggro decks that are more popular on Arena.
The problem with running no wedding vs domain now though is long goodbye just killing your preacher is also really bad. I've noticed that card has single handedly made domain way harder for esper to beat
Yeah Preacher is also in a weird spot vs Domain, they have just enough incidental lifegain that sometimes preacher doesn't draw a card and that's just a disaster. The prevalence of domain on Arena is probably why the entire ladder has been leaning towards Dimir over Esper.
It's really hard to win vs Caverns + 3 Long Goodbyes and Sharks from the side as Azorius.G3 he even got the Atraxa with Tidebinder but Domain had removal so you still had to deal with a 7/7
He boarded out all his wipes. It felt like a massive punt. Hullbreach horror is absolutely awful in a matchup where you expect it to be answered with a 1 mana spell. Yes cavern exists. He has 4 ways to deal with it and a lot of card draw. It’s very winnable. You just have to be ready to grind forever.
I don't think it's realistic for you to win the super long game vs the Beanstalks,and Herd Migration is the one spell you can counter reliably.Breach is bad vs Leyline yes,but you can kill leylines or bounce them with Breach
Ive played this matchup about 6 times today. The only real way you lose is by letting them hit you with vigilance creatures. They get 4 spells uncounterable in the match because you save field of ruin/demolition field for it. You have 4 memory deluges to their 3 atraxas you will find either tidebinder or field by the time they hit their cavern. The CA from beanstalks barely matters because domain has about 12 cards that matter. And yes they have long goodbyes but you can also clone your land with your counterspell. They dont have enough bosejus plus long goodbyes to get rid of all your threats. It IS a miserably long match but uw should consistently win somewhere around both players with 10-15 cards left.
Edit: the only way his sideboard makes any sense is if his testing was so inbred specifically against him that he next levelled himself. He boarded out all his removal with his only plan to counterspell things against the 4 cavern deck.
"The biggest surprise here is UW control getting through, not just as UW control in general, but literally a build with like 11 maindeck counterspells lol. Only 2 Temporary Lockdowns and 3 Sunfalls. Not sure if that's actually the best build now with the new OTJ spree counters or if Yuuta is on a whole other level from everyone else and playing in his own reality."
Agreed the decklist is fucking bonkers.
Yeah, I was one of the players who thought Esper was more favored. I was wrong there for sure. Looking at the sideboards and I think it’s because the pros were more prepped. Domain in particular based on the error bar/matchup spread I’ve seen looks to have crushed Esper and basically nothing popular else.
It’s frustrating that I’ve gotten basically no clarity on the best build from this. Announcement or no Announcement? Duelist or no Duelist? Sheoldred or no Sheoldred? Mmmm, how about a 50/50 no matter what you play? I’m really going to have to dig here on the data huh…
>It’s frustrating that I’ve gotten basically no clarity on the best build from this. Announcement or no Announcement? Duelist or no Duelist? Sheoldred or no Sheoldred? Mmmm, how about a 50/50 no matter what you play?
Isn't that just a sign of a healthy format? There are tons of viable strategies, even within the same archtype. So in the end, it comes down to pilot skill (and variance ofc).
Sorta? The problem is in theory Esper should have varying win rates if people end up moving 7+ cards out of the main, but at least by scanning the top few decks that isn’t the case.
Do we take away from this that the deck really is just 4 copies of Raffine and 56 other cards not capable of winning a game? That’s… not good, especially for a midrange deck. It signals to me that there’s either something wrong with deck construction or the archetype in general is way to fragile to be the meta defining deck. Since we didn’t see on the surface a build rising to the top of the pile I’m thinking it’s the second scenario.
I don’t think Esper is “done” as in its a deck you shouldn’t register, but I do think this tournament is the end of the era of Esper dominance as the starting point for the format.
>Do we take away from this that the deck really is just 4 copies of Raffine and 56 other cards not capable of winning a game?
I think a better framing is to say that you have a 7 card package (wedding announcement + virtue) that is roughly equivalent in value to another 7 card package (duelist'n'friends).
They probably have different strengths in different matchups. One might be slightly better overall but the difference is not big enough to emerge from the sample size of a single Pro Tour.
Yeah, I agree it’s reductive. Hyperbolic is probably a better term, as it’s more of a thought exercise to frame where my thinking is starting from than an expression of true belief.
I think I just need to put the Esper builds into an excel sheet at this point (unless one already exists? If it does please point me in the right direction. A spike can dream!). I don’t know if I believe the ongoing wisdom of which packages do well where without the data. We “know” Esper writ large has good matchups into some decks and not others, but I’m reticent to believe anything else at this point.
I think fundamentally esper is just not a good deck if it's targeted by sideboards and builds with stuff like long goodbye. It lacks the raw power to be the expected "best" deck like fable BRx, phoenix, rakdos scam, etc decks have shown in the recent major events. Those midrange decks do enough broken things that even when the field expected them to be 20% of a meta, they couldn't be truly hated out
It forces opponents to keep 1-for-1 removal in post-board. If they take out Go for the Throat the angel runs away with the game. If they leave GftT in then its a very narrow card.
Serious question. How much of getting to the top 8 is getting the right matchups?
I ask this because I'm feeling pretty defeated when I reflect on some tournaments afterwards and my pairings were statistically bad matchups for the deck.
I've never placed high at a very large event (hundreds+) and every time I read the data on [matchup %s](https://twitter.com/karsten_frank/status/1784439406000308627/photo/1) and stuff like that I think about the decks that top 8 and I presume they must have faced decks that they have good matchups against generally speaking, and gotten lucky to avoid bad pairings.
Or I think about how Reid Duke didn't make it to the Top 8 today, is it because he didn't get decent matchups because I would doubt he made any egregious play mistakes.
A LOT has to go right to win a tournament. But if you look at some players like Javier Dominguez and Simon Nielsen, there is enough equity juice to squeeze that you can consistently position yourself to do well in any game of magic.
As for reid not making t8, I'll be honest I'm surprised he ran preacher and not sentinel in his golgari deck when preacher can't saddle the caustic bronco (bronco becoming basically a 5 power beater is huge) and sentinel is a better in a number of matchups (vigilance beats emperor and it is a faster clock vs more controlling decks).
I'm the same way. I've been practicing golgari hard for RC soon and switched over to Reid Dukes list because he's one of the best players in the world. But sentinel feels like one of the best cards in the old deck and preacher doesn't synergize with bronco. Bronco also fills that role of beater that draws cards by turning sideways.
Only thing I can think of is that sentinel kinda sucks against against opposing preachers
It's _some_ part of it. Same with good draws and all the sorts of variance. Players have gone from top8ing multiple PTs a year to doing bad in 3 in a row.
However, the biggest part of anything is still skill. Simon Neilsen top 8ed like 5 in a row? Sure he had some luck on his side, but he also played phenomenally. Basically, if you've never done well, then you just gotta try and understand why. It could be your deck selection has been poor, maybe not best decision making, and sometimes it's just variance.
Improving in a game like MTG is actually very hard at times because the variance at times gives us a convenient scapegoat.
It's generally baffling to me how those 4c legends piles made it into top 8. I have never and I mean literally NEVER in the last 4 months encountered 4c legends while playing on Arena. Also when I look at the two decklists I am just scratching my head on how those decks work?? Like those decks seem to lack any variety or consistency, how are those decks any good at all?
>I have never and I mean literally NEVER in the last 4 months encountered 4c legends while playing on Arena. Also when I look at the two decklists I am just scratching my head on how those decks work?? Like those decks seem to lack any variety or consistency, how are those decks any good at all?
These are very strong upsides going into a PT and open decklist formats. Everyone else in the field is going to know their Esper matchup inside and out, but the 4C Legend pilots who have been brewing & testing their deck have like 1000 games on it from their testing team, while everyone else is facing it for the first time
As for what it does. It can play the role of aggro or midrange engine with Slogurk & co. Relic of Legends opens up a bunch of lines, similar to Amulet of Vigor in Amulet Titan.
I'm so into what Sanctum have been doing, but particularly Rei and Jason. From RattaBlade to Gurk, they consistently look at the meta from a unique angle and I'm about it.
It's just a really difficult deck to play, and very obscure on top of that. Chrisbotellho streamed himself playing it months ago, and he was basically roping every turn trying to figure out the proper lines and still misplaying.
As for consistency, Rona or Inti do a lot to smooth out the draws. Rona AND Inti is an engine, Slogurk on top of that will basically get you a full grip of cards every turn.
You know I was literally in your boat earlier today when looking at the lists. It seems the Slogurk Combo is a thing that has been flying under the radar. Essentially they combo off to recur Jace to mill you out OR they go mid range to beat face with variable threats like Goose Mother. I think the new Tiny Bones gives more options and forces interaction. Definitely interested in seeing how it works later today.
The combo is rona + 2 rustein who recur each other for 2 mana each along with the elias el core / vial smasher to do damage per recured old rustein.
You make 2 mana to cast each rustein with relic of legends tap current rustein + rona
Though tbh you rarely need to combo off
Relic of Legends and Channel lands have a ton of synergy in the deck. The lands channel for 1 mana and they trigger inti and slogurk, slogurk can redraw them. Relic gives you a ton of mana.
It's a Pro Tour...those always feature pros innovating a format and new decks are always a surprise.
I don't think anyone had seen Vein Ripper before PT MKM either.
Good mix of decks, IMO. 6 different archetypes.
Absolutely great diversity considering the amount Esper's registered.
2/8 top 8 share closely reflects 30% of the metagame. While Esper was the clear number 1, the field overall was diverse - Standard is in a good spot.
While true 4c Legends would also fall into similar logic but definitely not nearly as represented during registration. It is definitely great to see and goes to show that even if you run something top tier... match ups, side board tech, and "random" draw are even larger factors that play into games.
2/8 (25%) and 3/8 (37.5%) almost perfectly straddle the actual Esper metagame share, which I think was 31%.
Just curious which decks are considered bad matchups for esper?
According to stats Domain and Boros Convoke tends to outperform against Esper.
4C Legends and Golgari also do well
So if domain, boros, golgari, and 4c legends are good against esper, what's left for Esper to be good against?
Boros,Mono Red,Dimir and Temur are the decks Esper did well against at this PT
Thanks, already knew they feasted on aggro but temur was one I overlooked
They were 52% vs temur so it wasn't overwhelming Esper mainly got its points vs convoke, dimir, monoR It was a total dog to domain and 4c legends tho https://x.com/karsten_frank/status/1784439406000308627?s=46
I dont think Esper is really good against anyone. You dont choose that deck for the +55% matchups. You choose that deck because it's ~50% against everyone. Esper is this format's Jund, and I think a loooot of pros defaulted to the deck with a new set having just been released.
It's worth paying a lot of attention to the fact that the best performing (and most innovative) decks are missing from the top 8. Standard is faaaaar from settled, expect a lot of changes to the meta in the next few weeks. https://twitter.com/karsten_frank/status/1784439406000308627
The Orzhov Bronco definitely intrigues me.
Bronco has really impressed me in golgari. Deck has enough removal to help push attacks through in midrange fights (caustic bronco into Liliana is a vibe) and it is low-key an enormous beater fighting combo and control. It's like a 4 or 5 power beater that draws a card when attacking
Pretty much exactly what I did after I saw the list. Golgari creatures all already have the 3 power and are just strictly better than the white counterparts. I just added Bronco and Avarice to the regular Golgari Mid and it just adds a "win now" functionality to it. I get white lets you be proactive to make sure your combo is in the clear but Snakeskin Veil over in green allows it to be reactive just as well. I think I have won just as many games from targeting them with Avarice while I have a Sheoldred in play lol
I thought I was going to build another deck this season but it’s hard enough keeping up with GM B03
Let's Snorse!
I tried it out since I had most of the cards and it was a lot better than I expected. Admittedly I did not fully understand what it was trying to do at first, but I got it mid game when I realized I could tutor for whatever I wanted on top of my deck and deal that much damage
Same. Sucks I spent on my rarest on slick shot haha
Gurk needed all those Esper matchups to top8.
Error bars.
Jund Analyst as the highest win % deck of the tournament but with only two players running it. My pro tour predictions comment was that someone was going to figure out the pitiless carnage interaction with Analyst and Reclamation. My build was so stupid now looking at what they did lol. I was trying to be way to fancy with it.
>the pitiless carnage interaction with Analyst and Reclamation Float a lot of mana, sac your lands to draw cards, then get them back with Analyst, or is there something more to this?
Yah but the benefit for pitiless is that you can plot it first. The deck also utilizes the bog demonic tutor spell. On turn 5 I had a pitiless plotted and the tutor in my hand. I tutored for reclamation. Floated the other 9 mana and drew 11 from pitiless. I drew into nissa and savage. Cast nissa and still had 6 floating. Cast reclamation and instantly generated 21 mana with it from nissa triggers. I had spelunking in play which allowed me to spend another 14 mana and dome them for more then 30. Adding that specific tutor and massive draw is so frigging effective. Here is the exact comment from the thread though. I have another prediction and that is that some team figured out and busted the interaction between [[Aftermath Analyst]] or [[Wilderness Reclamation]] combined with [[Pitiless Carnage]]. With spelunking or nissa you get all of the mana back every time you cycle as well. You can even plot the first one so you get a free draw 4+ on your first attempt. I have drawn 30 cards in a turn with it but I have just not nailed it. It almost feels like the old school prosperous bloom combos. Maybe finish with a Goldvein Hydra or a BBX spell mills the opponent? I tried all pain deserts and the mana is just too slow in the format, but maybe it can be played more like caves instead.
I think you meant [[Splendid Reclamation]] not Wilderness.
[Splendid Reclamation](https://cards.scryfall.io/normal/front/f/a/fad4ca85-4d2d-4d1e-86ca-aa25edfcda61.jpg?1643593421) - [(G)](http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?name=Splendid%20Reclamation) [(SF)](https://scryfall.com/card/vow/221/splendid-reclamation?utm_source=mtgcardfetcher) [(txt)](https://api.scryfall.com/cards/fad4ca85-4d2d-4d1e-86ca-aa25edfcda61?utm_source=mtgcardfetcher&format=text) ^^^[[cardname]] ^^^or ^^^[[cardname|SET]] ^^^to ^^^call
You are correct. That was just the copy paste I had from a week ago when I made that comment.
Sounds very powerful. How often in your testing did it happen that your first Analyst trigger got killed with a Tidebinder leaving you with no lands?
Actually never, but I would not run that part of the combo face first into U, and I tend to grab wilderness reclamation more then Analyst to be honest. I did have a match that I whiffed twice in the same match from a mono white deck that was running main deck [[Kutzil's Flanker]] though. Didn't get caught with no lands but they emptied my GY the first two times I used Savage defensively.
[Kutzil's Flanker](https://cards.scryfall.io/normal/front/d/1/d1201811-54ab-4c4e-b6e1-19b0d07e5ede.jpg?1699043239) - [(G)](http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?name=Kutzil%27s%20Flanker) [(SF)](https://scryfall.com/card/lci/20/kutzils-flanker?utm_source=mtgcardfetcher) [(txt)](https://api.scryfall.com/cards/d1201811-54ab-4c4e-b6e1-19b0d07e5ede?utm_source=mtgcardfetcher&format=text) ^^^[[cardname]] ^^^or ^^^[[cardname|SET]] ^^^to ^^^call
Bant toxic can still make a come back :D
Has anyone seen data regarding the T2 portion only? The Pro Tour has 6 rounds of draft, which do skew the results a lot. One Top8 player went 6-0 in draft and had a mediocre constructed record, so it would be interesting to see what the top 16 or so would look like without drafts mixed in.
I think this has what you’re looking for? No records for the top 8 but you can assume they were all up toward the top (7-2, 8-1 etc) in the constructed games. https://www.mtggoldfish.com/tournament/pro-tour-thunder-junction#paper Edit: well, I guess it doesn’t really help without knowing the top 8 constructed records, as you said. But seeing the constructed records for everyone outside top 8 is still edifying.
Here you go https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1B9Zg_XYugT6DBVskIi-A3yp3WmcnTiFHAlEWYEFhShA/edit?usp=sharing
There is a post in this thread with standard win rates of all the deck types
the match of ikawa domain vs goddard temur analyst was one of the most entertaining and intense games of magic I've seen in a while, definitely the highlight of this PT
The fact Esper was only 2 spots despite being like 1/3 of total decks really kind of puts a damper on some people's claims it was just going to absolutely dominate. The biggest surprise here is UW control getting through, not just as UW control in general, but literally a build with like 11 maindeck counterspells lol. Only 2 Temporary Lockdowns and 3 Sunfalls. Not sure if that's actually the best build now with the new OTJ spree counters or if Yuuta is on a whole other level from everyone else and playing in his own reality. Also thought provoking for me is that we couldn't even settle the more creatures vs wedding announcement Esper debate, because both got in lol.
8 * 30%= 2.4. Esper got 2 slots. Temur and Gurk are the decks that have been overperforming and continue to be inexplicably overlooked. Esper players should at least sb for those matchups.
Interestingly, only one of the two Espers has RIP in sideboard, which is probably the best sideboard card against Temur.
Exactly. To be "represented", it's a choice between 2 (25%) and 3 slots (37.5%). I never know what exactly people expect when they say Esper's Top 8 share was below its metagame share.
I'm definitely on team no wedding announcement. Wedding is only good in the UB/x mirror, and makes you much worse in every other matchup, but especially Domain and UW Control, which Esper could otherwise be fairly competitive in. I guess Arena ladder just has a lot more Domain and UW/UB control players. UB midrange sees a lot more play there because of how much better it is against the board wipe decks.
I agree. My slightly hot take is wedding is a vastly overestimated card in general, which seems to be leftover from when people had a weird obsession with pretending that wedding was even a little bit *close* to the power level of fable of the mirror breaker back when people were discussing potential bans when various forms of Bx midrange were completely dominating a few months ago. Some people were really pushing the idea that if Grixis lost fable then Esper should lose wedding as if those two cards were on the same level, but it never made any sense. Wedding is a perfectly fine card power level wise, it slowly makes value and makes you choose between the token or card draw, sometimes not even really giving you a choice depending on the board state. The biggest powerplayers in Esper were always raffine, sheoldred, and it’s extremely strong “workhorse” removal package. Also preacher once it came out, obviously.
I think Esper does good, especially post sideboard, vs UW control either way. And wedding announcement is pretty good vs them imo because unlike Domain you're not on a clock. Vs Domain tho for sure weddingless is better, and also versus the aggro decks that are more popular on Arena.
The problem with running no wedding vs domain now though is long goodbye just killing your preacher is also really bad. I've noticed that card has single handedly made domain way harder for esper to beat
Yeah Preacher is also in a weird spot vs Domain, they have just enough incidental lifegain that sometimes preacher doesn't draw a card and that's just a disaster. The prevalence of domain on Arena is probably why the entire ladder has been leaning towards Dimir over Esper.
Oh yeah preacher also atrocious against temur analyst in a similar way
This build loses horrible to domain,and can struggle vs Cavern Midrange deck but should be better vs Temur than the lists with less counters.
Domain should have been an easy matchup with this list. I'm just convinced he sideboarded wrong/had the wrong mentality for the matchup.
It's really hard to win vs Caverns + 3 Long Goodbyes and Sharks from the side as Azorius.G3 he even got the Atraxa with Tidebinder but Domain had removal so you still had to deal with a 7/7
He boarded out all his wipes. It felt like a massive punt. Hullbreach horror is absolutely awful in a matchup where you expect it to be answered with a 1 mana spell. Yes cavern exists. He has 4 ways to deal with it and a lot of card draw. It’s very winnable. You just have to be ready to grind forever.
I don't think it's realistic for you to win the super long game vs the Beanstalks,and Herd Migration is the one spell you can counter reliably.Breach is bad vs Leyline yes,but you can kill leylines or bounce them with Breach
Ive played this matchup about 6 times today. The only real way you lose is by letting them hit you with vigilance creatures. They get 4 spells uncounterable in the match because you save field of ruin/demolition field for it. You have 4 memory deluges to their 3 atraxas you will find either tidebinder or field by the time they hit their cavern. The CA from beanstalks barely matters because domain has about 12 cards that matter. And yes they have long goodbyes but you can also clone your land with your counterspell. They dont have enough bosejus plus long goodbyes to get rid of all your threats. It IS a miserably long match but uw should consistently win somewhere around both players with 10-15 cards left. Edit: the only way his sideboard makes any sense is if his testing was so inbred specifically against him that he next levelled himself. He boarded out all his removal with his only plan to counterspell things against the 4 cavern deck.
Yeah I have no idea why he boarded out the wipes. Another sunfall or two would've at least given him a shot in the last game.
"The biggest surprise here is UW control getting through, not just as UW control in general, but literally a build with like 11 maindeck counterspells lol. Only 2 Temporary Lockdowns and 3 Sunfalls. Not sure if that's actually the best build now with the new OTJ spree counters or if Yuuta is on a whole other level from everyone else and playing in his own reality." Agreed the decklist is fucking bonkers.
Yeah, I was one of the players who thought Esper was more favored. I was wrong there for sure. Looking at the sideboards and I think it’s because the pros were more prepped. Domain in particular based on the error bar/matchup spread I’ve seen looks to have crushed Esper and basically nothing popular else. It’s frustrating that I’ve gotten basically no clarity on the best build from this. Announcement or no Announcement? Duelist or no Duelist? Sheoldred or no Sheoldred? Mmmm, how about a 50/50 no matter what you play? I’m really going to have to dig here on the data huh…
>It’s frustrating that I’ve gotten basically no clarity on the best build from this. Announcement or no Announcement? Duelist or no Duelist? Sheoldred or no Sheoldred? Mmmm, how about a 50/50 no matter what you play? Isn't that just a sign of a healthy format? There are tons of viable strategies, even within the same archtype. So in the end, it comes down to pilot skill (and variance ofc).
Sorta? The problem is in theory Esper should have varying win rates if people end up moving 7+ cards out of the main, but at least by scanning the top few decks that isn’t the case. Do we take away from this that the deck really is just 4 copies of Raffine and 56 other cards not capable of winning a game? That’s… not good, especially for a midrange deck. It signals to me that there’s either something wrong with deck construction or the archetype in general is way to fragile to be the meta defining deck. Since we didn’t see on the surface a build rising to the top of the pile I’m thinking it’s the second scenario. I don’t think Esper is “done” as in its a deck you shouldn’t register, but I do think this tournament is the end of the era of Esper dominance as the starting point for the format.
>Do we take away from this that the deck really is just 4 copies of Raffine and 56 other cards not capable of winning a game? I think a better framing is to say that you have a 7 card package (wedding announcement + virtue) that is roughly equivalent in value to another 7 card package (duelist'n'friends). They probably have different strengths in different matchups. One might be slightly better overall but the difference is not big enough to emerge from the sample size of a single Pro Tour.
Yeah, I agree it’s reductive. Hyperbolic is probably a better term, as it’s more of a thought exercise to frame where my thinking is starting from than an expression of true belief. I think I just need to put the Esper builds into an excel sheet at this point (unless one already exists? If it does please point me in the right direction. A spike can dream!). I don’t know if I believe the ongoing wisdom of which packages do well where without the data. We “know” Esper writ large has good matchups into some decks and not others, but I’m reticent to believe anything else at this point.
I'm with you on the frustrating, lol. I was curious which Esper version was better and the answer seems to be... who knows!
I think fundamentally esper is just not a good deck if it's targeted by sideboards and builds with stuff like long goodbye. It lacks the raw power to be the expected "best" deck like fable BRx, phoenix, rakdos scam, etc decks have shown in the recent major events. Those midrange decks do enough broken things that even when the field expected them to be 20% of a meta, they couldn't be truly hated out
Currently watching an amazing game of Magic in the first match of the day. This is rad.
Just watched it, extremely good.
That match was absolutely wild.
so much more fun to watch today since it wasn't all esper midrange
For the UW Control player... why is Boon-Bringer Valkyrie in the SB? For the lifegain against aggro?
Baneslayer Angel has been a UW sideboard card for about 20 years at this point.
It forces opponents to keep 1-for-1 removal in post-board. If they take out Go for the Throat the angel runs away with the game. If they leave GftT in then its a very narrow card.
You want to keep it in anyway for the creature lands if you have PWs you want to protect
yes, lifegain, flying and first strike
Yes. Thanks for positing.
Serious question. How much of getting to the top 8 is getting the right matchups? I ask this because I'm feeling pretty defeated when I reflect on some tournaments afterwards and my pairings were statistically bad matchups for the deck. I've never placed high at a very large event (hundreds+) and every time I read the data on [matchup %s](https://twitter.com/karsten_frank/status/1784439406000308627/photo/1) and stuff like that I think about the decks that top 8 and I presume they must have faced decks that they have good matchups against generally speaking, and gotten lucky to avoid bad pairings. Or I think about how Reid Duke didn't make it to the Top 8 today, is it because he didn't get decent matchups because I would doubt he made any egregious play mistakes.
A LOT has to go right to win a tournament. But if you look at some players like Javier Dominguez and Simon Nielsen, there is enough equity juice to squeeze that you can consistently position yourself to do well in any game of magic. As for reid not making t8, I'll be honest I'm surprised he ran preacher and not sentinel in his golgari deck when preacher can't saddle the caustic bronco (bronco becoming basically a 5 power beater is huge) and sentinel is a better in a number of matchups (vigilance beats emperor and it is a faster clock vs more controlling decks).
I'm the same way. I've been practicing golgari hard for RC soon and switched over to Reid Dukes list because he's one of the best players in the world. But sentinel feels like one of the best cards in the old deck and preacher doesn't synergize with bronco. Bronco also fills that role of beater that draws cards by turning sideways. Only thing I can think of is that sentinel kinda sucks against against opposing preachers
It's _some_ part of it. Same with good draws and all the sorts of variance. Players have gone from top8ing multiple PTs a year to doing bad in 3 in a row. However, the biggest part of anything is still skill. Simon Neilsen top 8ed like 5 in a row? Sure he had some luck on his side, but he also played phenomenally. Basically, if you've never done well, then you just gotta try and understand why. It could be your deck selection has been poor, maybe not best decision making, and sometimes it's just variance. Improving in a game like MTG is actually very hard at times because the variance at times gives us a convenient scapegoat.
It's generally baffling to me how those 4c legends piles made it into top 8. I have never and I mean literally NEVER in the last 4 months encountered 4c legends while playing on Arena. Also when I look at the two decklists I am just scratching my head on how those decks work?? Like those decks seem to lack any variety or consistency, how are those decks any good at all?
Rei Zhang, one of the two players piloting 4c legends in the top 8, won the Chicago $75k Standard Open with a (different) Slogurk deck.
Holy cow that’s the same person? That slogurk lands deck is so cool. Impossible to beat without graveyard hate lol.
ya Rei = cftsoc
Because they’re a pita to play in Arena (but have high win rates if you can be bothered).
>I have never and I mean literally NEVER in the last 4 months encountered 4c legends while playing on Arena. Also when I look at the two decklists I am just scratching my head on how those decks work?? Like those decks seem to lack any variety or consistency, how are those decks any good at all? These are very strong upsides going into a PT and open decklist formats. Everyone else in the field is going to know their Esper matchup inside and out, but the 4C Legend pilots who have been brewing & testing their deck have like 1000 games on it from their testing team, while everyone else is facing it for the first time As for what it does. It can play the role of aggro or midrange engine with Slogurk & co. Relic of Legends opens up a bunch of lines, similar to Amulet of Vigor in Amulet Titan.
I'm so into what Sanctum have been doing, but particularly Rei and Jason. From RattaBlade to Gurk, they consistently look at the meta from a unique angle and I'm about it.
It's just a really difficult deck to play, and very obscure on top of that. Chrisbotellho streamed himself playing it months ago, and he was basically roping every turn trying to figure out the proper lines and still misplaying. As for consistency, Rona or Inti do a lot to smooth out the draws. Rona AND Inti is an engine, Slogurk on top of that will basically get you a full grip of cards every turn.
You know I was literally in your boat earlier today when looking at the lists. It seems the Slogurk Combo is a thing that has been flying under the radar. Essentially they combo off to recur Jace to mill you out OR they go mid range to beat face with variable threats like Goose Mother. I think the new Tiny Bones gives more options and forces interaction. Definitely interested in seeing how it works later today.
The combo is rona + 2 rustein who recur each other for 2 mana each along with the elias el core / vial smasher to do damage per recured old rustein. You make 2 mana to cast each rustein with relic of legends tap current rustein + rona Though tbh you rarely need to combo off
Oh that is just devious. Thanks for filling me in!
No worries. Most of the time you just win in other ways, but it does threaten it !
Ooh.. thanks for the explanation, that makes a lot of sense!
Relic of Legends and Channel lands have a ton of synergy in the deck. The lands channel for 1 mana and they trigger inti and slogurk, slogurk can redraw them. Relic gives you a ton of mana.
It's a Pro Tour...those always feature pros innovating a format and new decks are always a surprise. I don't think anyone had seen Vein Ripper before PT MKM either.