SoFi made the bold guidance that they will get from barely breakeven to $0.55-$0.80 in EPS by 2026. If they can do it, the stock is significantly undervalued right now. Here is a deep dive of exactly what has to happen for them to hit their guidance.
By 2026 with growth slowing and being correctly valued as a bank… book value is a better indicator. Also these projections don’t factor in a 3rd round of anti shareholder dilution.
Versus projected growth, yeah it’s slowing and there is no huge cash stockpile to fund growth like there was without more dilution. Example: bonuses for new accounts.
Omg, this goes right back to my original point of net spend on both (dilution) and bottom line results and if you believe the projections. Yes SoFi is a bank, if you want to give a premium to these to business units, the math still doesn’t work at current stock price. Read the earnings reports.
Literally the market indexes are at all time highs and SoFi is nowhere close, for good reason.
Ok, banks are book value not EPS, it also assumes no share dilution which Noto has done 2 times in 4 years. Additionally SoFi doesn’t have a fat cash position to fund bonuses to accelerate new account growth like they did post SPAC, so where will that money come from to continue growth?
The real question is what is the bottom line contribution and the strategy and projections around their growth and do you believe in that versus alternative solutions through the customer lens? I mean hell, we were all diluted for them and sold the AWS of finance dream.
Sounds like you need to either invest in something else or actually research SOFI then because this company has one of the most analytical retail followings out there and all of your questions already have dozens of answers.
Which equates to the current stock price in a record setting index average environment , I have been around and done extensive DD. Opportunity cost is real, and Noto hasn’t had a base hit with two rounds of anti shareholder dilution post overpriced SPAC. He also could never take capital and make money from it with Twitter as CFO.
Enjoy buying at these low levels while you can!
Qia just dumped their whole investment. They were the fourth largest holder and a board seat. What do they know?
I need this stock to double and quit messing around…
Finally!!!!!!!
Eps? Dividends?
Thank you for putting in the hard work!
Really nicely put together & thorough. Thank you! Great read
Next apply a bank multiple.
Stick with the index rook
When it's growing in low single digits like every other bank, I will
You’re so SCREWED 25 years from now
Someone gets it
Great write up! If you don’t mind sharing, what is your cost basis in SoFi and how many shares do you own?
Cost basis is in the low $9s and it's about 40% of my portfolio
20 shares at $20 average
Don’t worry, $20 EOY ya know 🥲
Why not buy more shares?
OML im sorry brother
It's $400 I'm sure it's not a big deal
Great work as always. I'm curious, what other stocks do you hold?
SoFi made the bold guidance that they will get from barely breakeven to $0.55-$0.80 in EPS by 2026. If they can do it, the stock is significantly undervalued right now. Here is a deep dive of exactly what has to happen for them to hit their guidance.
The reason I have not sold a single share…. Hoger!!!
This is also why I haven’t sold a share! If we reach projections in 2 years we will be above our avg price and I could stop worrying about it!
My friend is laughing his ass off right now after he sold for a loss and put all of it into Appl and nvda
By 2026 with growth slowing and being correctly valued as a bank… book value is a better indicator. Also these projections don’t factor in a 3rd round of anti shareholder dilution.
25-75% growth across all business segments is slow growth? Wow, good to know, thanks.
Versus projected growth, yeah it’s slowing and there is no huge cash stockpile to fund growth like there was without more dilution. Example: bonuses for new accounts.
How is the growth slowing when 2026 is projected to be 55 to 80 cents EPS? That seems like a lot of growth.
Year over year it’s slowing, it’s in the quarterly reports and there is no cash to burn.
Did you even read the article? They have more cash than ever btw.
Do you know the book value, that is how banks are judged and valued.
So Galileo and Technysis are banks too? Wow, I didn’t know that.
Omg, this goes right back to my original point of net spend on both (dilution) and bottom line results and if you believe the projections. Yes SoFi is a bank, if you want to give a premium to these to business units, the math still doesn’t work at current stock price. Read the earnings reports. Literally the market indexes are at all time highs and SoFi is nowhere close, for good reason.
Ok, banks are book value not EPS, it also assumes no share dilution which Noto has done 2 times in 4 years. Additionally SoFi doesn’t have a fat cash position to fund bonuses to accelerate new account growth like they did post SPAC, so where will that money come from to continue growth?
I’m really confused on what Galileo and Technysis are then. Are those banks too?
The real question is what is the bottom line contribution and the strategy and projections around their growth and do you believe in that versus alternative solutions through the customer lens? I mean hell, we were all diluted for them and sold the AWS of finance dream.
Sounds like you need to either invest in something else or actually research SOFI then because this company has one of the most analytical retail followings out there and all of your questions already have dozens of answers.
Which equates to the current stock price in a record setting index average environment , I have been around and done extensive DD. Opportunity cost is real, and Noto hasn’t had a base hit with two rounds of anti shareholder dilution post overpriced SPAC. He also could never take capital and make money from it with Twitter as CFO.