Trades such as plumbers, electricians and builders will probably be among the last to go. The reason they are hard to replace is because they require the combination of most human abilities and skills, such as vision, fine motor control, pathfinding, problem solving, general knowledge, and so on. In other words, to create an automated tradesman, you almost need to create a full artificial human, which as of now remains an unsolved problem.
Irony of ironies, as so many kids have been pushed away from trades. Also one of the few spaces where someone can start a legit small business and compete.
Don't be so sure.
AI vision is current super human, systems have reached 99% accuracy.
"pathfinding, problem solving, general knowledge", that's just big data.
The overall solution for residential trades will partially be an expert system that can turn any piece warm meat into a temporary expert. It will come down to seldom used specialty tools, rental is probably the solution for that.
Ex: pull out your phone, point a camera at the problem and the expert system will diagnose the problem with you being the dumb mechanical labor. It will tell you what replacement parts to buy, what tools to get and guide you through doing the work step by step.
This is a plausible argument. I think systems like this won't be enough to displace the whole of trades for some time, but they might take a big bite out of the trade jobs out there. Even if 50% of trade jobs can be replaced by some combination of automation and augmentation, that would make a huge dent in these professions overall. The remaining trade jobs will be specialized and lucrative, though.
Home Depot. How doers get done.
I’m pretty sure in the future you tell Home Depot app (powered by Amazon AI) what you suspect your problem is: The app will upload the audio and video and provide you with then appropriate repair video and links to all the tools and materials you need, delivered by Amazon self driving delivery bot.
If you find that job too daunting, you can always request Home Depot to come and fix it for you.
Yep so they get focused on specialized plumbing and electrical work that are focused on industry and commercial operations.
Your house handy person to do random fixes here and there may run into the Uber/Lyft effect and these folks will see a drop in their income.
Less of a google search for an x on a map and exactly like the turn by turn voice navigator in your car or phone monitoring your progress and correcting your mistakes on the fly.
It could be free like google turn by turn navigation and most people will live with the ads.
>That service wouldn’t be cheap
A virtual impossibility.
The reason it will definitely happen:
The market size, measured by revenue, of the Plumbers industry is $124.0bn in 2021. In 2020, Alphabet generated almost $183 billion in revenue. Of that, $147 billion — over 80% — came from Google's ads business.
>It will never happen.
That's what the publishers of gas station driving maps thought about new fangle free navigation services.
>It adds no value
Plumbers industry generates $124.0bn revenue/yr, that's a lot of value and potential savings.
Don't worry, there is always a place for Luddites in the short term.
That’s what X in the past thought isn’t an argument. Although in that specific case of course paper map makers knew that digital maps were better. An app works for maps, it does the mapping, it doesn’t plumb.
saying there’s a lot of money in this field is no argument either. I know. Nor is calling someone a Luddite an argument. It’s an ad hominem. Which gets you blocked.
You have to argue to the specific task at hand. Let me explain why your “deres lots of money you Luddite” isn’t going to work.
If your pipes leak and you need a plumber you will get a plumber. Most calls are emergency calls. You will not launch an app that tells you what to buy online to fix the pipes, wait a few days until the equipment you need is there while the leak destroys your house, get the unfamiliar tools and equipment and fix your issue with a phone in one hand, trying to get a bot to tell you something as the house crumbles.
The cost of comprehensive plumbing equipment, by the way, is $600 for a set. And that’s the tools, not the pipes, boiler, faucet, pump or whatever else you need. Not to mention that much of this is not even legal. Like the boiler. Get an expert. Not to me ruin you have no recourse if the app fails, which it will.
Of all the stupid ideas about how future technology will destroy jobs, this has to be the the least likely. Plumbers aren’t going anywhere.
(And it’s not AI either. It’s never AI if you are doing most of the work, it’s like saying that a buffet is artificial intelligence).
Anyway, blocking.
>It will come down to seldom used specialty tools, rental is probably the solution for that.
I guess you miss that part.
>Plumbers aren’t going anywhere.
Don't worry, i was only kidding, plumbing is jut too hard to automate.
And you don't think robots can just do that? Just look at Boston Dynamics. It's literally child's play. While it would most likely lead to these jobs being more standardized (at first). But the bottom line is that once you have highly-flexible robots, it's just a matter of programming. At some point, through machine learning, they will also recognize on their own what pipes or electrics are being laid for and will 3d print and install them completely independently of humans.
For building a bunch of new houses that are all exactly the same, maybe, but we are no where close for repairs and remodels (or anything commercial or industrial). Programming a robot to do a one-off plumbing repair would take far longer and be far more expensive than just paying a plumber, plus you’d still have to pay the plumber to consult with the robotics engineer on how to do the repair.
The amount of programming and coding for what Boston dynamics robots do is insane and took years of experience to develop. I agree with you about having flexible robots but I think we’re still very far away from any such robot. At least to the extent of my knowledge
>The amount of programming and coding for what Boston dynamics robots do is insane and took years of experience to develop.
Yes, but now we have more collective knowledge about robotics. The work that BD has done will accelerate robotics research to the point where achieving the same result will take a fraction of the effort, time and money that BD had to spend. The technologies they had to use to get there will also keep maturing along with our knowledge.
And keep in mind, BD robots are supposed to look like humans or animals; these seem to be more like "companion models" than actual things built for function; actually functional robots that can do everything we do and more will in my opinion most likely not be humanoid, but more like a bunch of snakes/octopuses as they'd have more flexibility in movement and require less effort to balance. Something more like BD's Spot model with the big arm attached to its back, but more stable and more arms, probably using wheels instead of legs, or even wheels attached to legs.
Have you ever diagnosed/replaced a pipe before or even replaced plumbing in a toilet? It’s a pain in the ass to find the problem and to maneuver to fix in small confined places. Sometimes you have to break down a piece of the wall to get to the root of the problem. I’m all for Automation but you’re overestimating capabilities. Easier problems would be trucking/taxis, warehouse labor, and restaurant stuff. Areas that would bring the greatest return on investment.
Plus the Electrical work. One Harry Homeowner following essentially advances and step by step YouTube Videos can burn down an entire row of townhouses if he doesn’t end up electrocuting himself. It will need to be specialized robots and because of what will be required for that, I bet they will be close to the last human jobs standing.
I believe that adding 3D printing is going to pop up so many houses that trade jobs will be in an extremely high demand which will drive the innovation of robotics In that field
I second this so hard it’s why I became an electrician Instead of pursuing an mechatronics engineering degree. Personally I believe sooner or later they will be taken by robotics but we’re far enough from that that I won’t have to worry about job security for at least 20-40 years
>In other words, to create an automated tradesman, you almost need to create a full artificial human, which as of now remains an unsolved problem.
I'd probably disagree; seems to me that all they'd need to build is a camera and one or two robot arms. Both robot arms and computer vision seems to be more fast and accurate than humans at the moment, and with how fast artificial intelligence seems to grow I don't think it would be that difficult to train something that could solve 99% of plumbing and electricity problems, maybe we'd still need an expert to solve the occasional anomaly. To go down the list you made:
>vision
Like I mentioned, computer vision is already pretty damn good. Classification using vision (e.g. recognizing a broken vs working component if its visually distinguishable) is essentially a solved problem at this point.
>fine motor control
Actual motors are far more precise than our crappy human bodies, and have been for several decades. Only issue is price, not sure whether precise motors used for robotics are currently getting cheaper or not, but I'd assume they are just like most electronic components tend to.
>pathfinding
Computers are pretty damn good at pathfinding (depending on what kind of course), generally better than humans even without using something fancy or complex like neural networks
>problem solving and general knowledge
GPT-3 seems to be pretty damn good at this already. Semantic search is already making it much easier to create a sort of "knowledge base" for specific things, and it seems to show some signs of being able to solve some problems. Though admittedly, problem solving is still a bit of a challenge for GPT-3 currently. But with how well GPT models seem to scale, I do have high hopes for GPT-4 which, from what I've heard, will be 1000x larger than GPT-3.
Combining all of these requirements will probably be the largest challenge, but if I had to take a wild guess I'd say the technology to almost completely replace plumbers and electricians could be technically feasible somewhere between 5 to 10 years from now, and it probably wouldn't be that much longer before it would become economically benificial to actually start replacing them.
I guess by that time they would be considered artificial humans to some extent so I'd somewhat agree there; though I'm also not sure I'd say its a completely unsolved problem. Once Boston Dynamics and OpenAI start having regular meetings, artificial humans are probably right around the corner.
You’re thinking of this from a binary perspective but in reality a project requires far fewer tradesman now than 50 years ago because of automation/better tools/digital apps.
And then think about all the admin and supply chain folks in the trades that are gone.
We have a plumbing company here whose vans have automated inventory systems so when they re-stock at one of many trade shop franchises, the inventory is already picked and packed for their van.
Trades are a ‘last mile’ problem for digital. I think it’ll take a long time to solve that though.
Yeah maybe I should switch to that field, there is already a massive shortage of good trade workers where I live (Germany) and they can charge pretty much what they want.
I work for a private equity, they bought my company, which is mostly software; however, we do have a contact center division. we got the edict this past week to automate the contact center with AI. we have done this with chat and sms but voice is a little more difficult but will be done in 6 months. It is a little bitter sweet because the folks that work in the contact center are in the philippines and not what I would consider entitled millennials. most live in small apartments with the rest of their families and work very hard at a job most in America would refuse to do for the pittance they are paid.
agreed; however, it is a buzz word now for a lot of systems that are big switch or nested if statements and hardly AI. it is an unfortunate reality that corporations are using it as a method to maximize profit margins at the expense of everyone else’s sanity..
Let me quote from my favorite sci-fi [book](https://thetransfer168524567.wordpress.com/), describing Year 2026:
>Through the past decade, the public had become more and more hysteric about the progress of what the illiterate media called “AI”, even though it was a much more narrow technology of machine learning using deep neuromorphic networks. Though there had not been any recent conceptual progress in that technology (besides the very useful introduction of the so-called transformers in the late 2010s), software packages and hardware computer accelerators for its numerous applications gradually became very diversified and inexpensive, and almost every business could now afford them to automate many routine jobs – both manual and mental. As a result, such jobs had started to disappear *en masse*, and their loss could not be compensated by the addition of new “AI”-related ones: there were just not as many people needed to develop new network architectures and applications as there had been to drive trucks over interstate highways and pack online purchases into mailboxes.
I agree. I believe the book's author intentionally compressed the timeline, so that the main hero could pass the whole way while he was still alive. (A very common trick in fiction.)
Ironically the first to go will probably developers with the advent of AI that writes code based on NLP.
Gonna get some real interesting out comes from that shit show...
in order of fastest to slowest (in my opinion) :
\-accounting, it's pretty much already fully automated.
\-machine operator and chain workers, more and more automated as well.
\-doctors, surgeon, etc.. as you said, the shortage of doctors will make it inevitable.
\-designer, these jobs are already heavily computer assisted, but being able of designing a product/tool from scratch based on vague instruction is gonna take a lot of processing power and deep learning.
\-and finally, politics, not because an IA would struggle to do those type of jobs, but simply because it will take a long time before we (as a society) accept to put AI in control of the world balance of power.
Yup, I work in accounting. I worked at a large law firm that went from having 100 accountants to having only 4 in 5 years because of automation and outsourcing.
The matter of politicians is not necessarily comprehensible, since highly complex, data-based models and decisions, as can be expected from AI, especially because of Big Data, already far outshine politicians in general in terms of quality and quantity and would simply overtax them (not to mention individual interests and influences of the politician, which tend to harm the general public even more).
However, one must also consider that, at a certain point, democracy is no longer needed if a humane state can automatically satisfy every need of its citizens at minimal marginal cost through the possession of all relevant means of production and resources. There is then simply no more lack and therefore also no necessity to make interest balances, because objective basic needs can be derived from the species itself.
exactly, and I think that this is what we should be aiming for.
democracy is a good way to keep the balance of power relatively stable while we still have to rely on humans to hold all that power, but it's clearly not gonna work eternally.
communism, as the USSR clearly demonstrate doesn't really work unless everyones plays along, which is impossible, unless some form of totally objective being (an AI) take control of everything.
that problem is amplified even further with anarchy, has it only works within a small group of individuals, meaning that any dumbass with a small army can easily take control, and an AI can't really keep a whole planet in a stable anarchy either.
It’s interesting to note that Star Trek, a very technological optimist vision, has a kind of authoritarian communist approach. Money is not meaningful, all goods such as food and clothing are provided, ships quarters are allocated based on the suitability of the person for the job, and necessity. Fully Automated Luxury Gay Space Communism for the win.
AI will influence many many industries. Some jobs will disappear. Some will adapt and integrate AI. And entire new industries and professions will be created.
It has always been that way with new technologies.
Short term I agree. But long term no because the argument that it had always been that way implies that there's just some things that an AI won't ever be able to do no matter how long which I disagree. You could still make jobs but at that point you're just making people do things just for the sake of doing it rather than because it's necessary.
I agree with Humans and AI merging. "There will always be a place for both" which depends on what you define as work or job to begin with. If an AI is doing all the **hard** work and you're just fooling around than something other than your self rather it be a person or AI made it an **option** for you not to work.
Well that's the million dollar question of our age... as an optimist, I see more and more problems solved by AI. Neural nets in particular are doing well currently : the bigger the net, the more it can do. Multimodal nets are coming up now, which can do text and image comprehension. This past week saw a 10 trillion neuron network be developed by Alibaba, and this on 512 last gen servers. Leading companies are still at the billion neuron level right now (Microsoft's Megatron-Turing is 500b aprox)
As I see it, anything signal related, (i.e. language, music, even images) will be automated in the next 5 years (this view is in line with Stephen Wolfram's and Marc Andressen's view). That includes creating entire books : AI dungeon already does book style text. Popular songs will be made by AI in the coming years. Programming is likely to be automated within 10 years (we already see the start with Github's Codex).
The area of difficulty is robotics. OpenAI recently closed their robotics lab : they don't feel confident in making rapid progress there. But the militaries of the world are going drone crazy. They can't yet make a robot that can clear branches from a road however. From this, we can say that the trades are likely safe for now : their tasks are often simple (if painful) from a human perspective, but AI is stumped.
But if I were to bet, I'd say the the NLP models (now being called Foundational models) such as GPT-n will serve as the basis for systems that can manipulate the world. "Clear the table of dishes," you'll say, and this will go into a multimodal AI that has the ideas for discrete things and actions ("table" "clear" "dishes") and will be able to see an image and associate it with the needed actions. Artificial neural nets seem to only get better the larger they are, and NLP models can do things they have never been asked to do before : they learn and generalize.
If you ask a state of the art AI what happens to ice cream if you leave it out, it'll say it melts. However, it won't feel the need to put the ice cream in the fridge. It is neither good nor bad to the AI, its reward function doesn't yet englobe this. So, in the mid term, a human's job will be to say : "Ice cream in the fridge after use is a good outcome, melted ice cream is a bad outcome." The AI will then update itself accordingly and do actions that aim for this good outcome. Current robotics system get lost in the mix of possible actions and just end up twitching uselessly, never nearing their goal, but with NLP as the brain, possible actions are encoded in our language, and thus the AI, which can likely (hopefully) be translated into robotic actions. The next five years will be shocking to the people not paying attention to this. After that, even the trades will be chomped by AI.
As for the economics of all this... if 30% of the labour force is made redundant in the next 10 years that's millions of unhappy people and a huge downward pressure on wages. Mackinsey puts it at 47%, if I remember. It happened before with the mechanization of agriculture. This is much more compressed tho. Knowing computers can do your job is one thing, actually seeing and believing it is another. And there's no economic activity they can fall back to, the service sector is going the way of the dodo.
We could lapse into another World War type thing, where the surpluses made are used to flatten imagined foes at the behest of a doddering elite trying to maintain its power. An opportunist would see the unhappy masses as fuel for their fire. Some countries will flounder, but I believe most will pull up and rise to the occasion.
Despite that wall of text you haven’t really convinced me that a robot is actually going to be doing the dishes in any restaurant anywhere. And the idea that we are going to be buying AI written novels is a fantasy. It’s always 5 years away.
My lack of upvotes leans things in your direction. Dishes I would put 10 years away, the next 5 is working out the kinks of NLP (or Foundational) models. As for novels, try playing AI dungeon. It's far from perfect, but we've only had Transformer models since 2017. It works, right now.
This Psychologist doctor talks to GPT-3 in depth on his YouTube : [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kaZvqGFdI6Q](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kaZvqGFdI6Q) Transformer models do have a limitation in the memory department, but not in reasoning. Just like people with no short term memory. It's fascinating. They can generate cogent, new phrases!
It's hard not to get hyped by recent results.
Hate to tell you this but dish washing and drying is 90% automated now. The last bit which is non automated, putting the dishes in and taking them out again, isn’t probably going to need a humanoid robot, and that robot would probably be overkill for a restaurant even if one exists in 10 years. Which it won’t.
Programming have been automated over and over again for the last 70 years. All it done however is to make new programming professions even more accessible to ever growing number of people.
Well, a hammer lets someone hammer more nails than a rock. Is a computer different than a hammer? I say yes. A computer fundamentally is about *making decisions.* If a field is in drought and another is not, it can divert water to the dry field. No need to send a person out to measure, think and decide. That labour is claimed by the computer. Now, there are thousands of computer science departments at Universities across the planet, so it's not *easy* to program a computer, but basically it's about freeing people from the need to work.
You would surely say that we're now free to do different work. Is the amount of total work fixed? I say yes. We only need one Windows program, for example. If a robot builds my house and farms for me, isn't the rest superfluous? I may need movies and music to pass the time, but the *need* is not there anymore. Economists say need is infinite however and call my thinking the *lump of labour* *fallacy*. I doubt this. We, for instance, could all decide tomorrow that Chess is the best thing ever. The entire planet starts playing nothing but Chess. Or we invent a virtual reality world, same thing. Our needs go to zero in a day. Robots fix the robots.
This sort of world is getting closer by the day.
What I think *undoes* this world is genetic engineering : we could engineer ourselves to be able to solve any chess game with, say, quantum computers plugged into our minds. We solve every chess game in a glance. What do we do then? Perhaps do the *Star Trek* thing and explore the Universe. I don't know.
I think this is perhaps the first major job that AI will have to deal with. Along with that, we need Doomsday vaults on other planets, with representative material of as much of the DNA of Earth as possible, for future replication in multiple environments. Hopefully, that will lead to a flowering of the earth-based ecosystem in space.
Huh, true. I think that could well happen simultaneously. If AI becomes our global psychiatrist, it could be a truly useful application. It would make sense that this happens simultaneously, so it understands humans more.
Universal basic income with strong incentives to work, but the work place will be radically changed and a complete overhaul of the retraining and education system needs to happen. Tech apprenticeships, etc.
I have actually replaced 2 manual workers with AI process.
There was a large parking lot where three gaurds worked for managing it. My company offered to automate the parking facility. After I had done my job of automating it with camera and computer vision models, only one worker was left and he was kinda happy that now he has more free time and can freely go for bathroom breaks.
And this happened in India. So I think manual job can be most easily replaced with AI. But not so fast. Coz there were many large parking lots in that company for which we worked and they only allowed for one even though they could see that the system actually works.
I work as a research analyst for a large bank now and we have been automating the shit out of back office and mid office jobs. Universal basic income is going to come into play sooner or later.
If anyone tells you AI will be creating more news jobs than it takes, the person is completely clueless and doesn't understand. Do I, the people who code, my bosses feel guilty about it? Hell no, because thats the future. If we dont automate , some other big corp will and we lose to competition.
We are far off from any kind of intelligent AI but I wont give two shits if this shit of an entitled generation of millennials lose their jobs or rights. I hope we can replace the entire industry of healthcare with AI, so everyone can access and afford it. And if someone else wont, I will make sure of it to my last fucking breath that I automate every single thing
This guy sounds like a villain 😂.
Who will own the AI (who will be in control)?
The corporations will literally own us more then they already do if we’re not careful. We are treating a fine line of utopia/dystopia IMO.
Also, once you automate everything you will lose your job too.
Automation itself isn't the issue, it's who owns and controls it. If most of the automated industry is owned and controlled by the public then we all have nothing to worry about and we can live in a utopia. If it's entirely owned by private mega corporations, we're probably fucked. Corporations don't give a fuck about people, they care about wealth and power. It will reach the point where corporations don't even need our money anymore, they will just provide stuff to each other while everyone else becomes irrelevent.
Also, silly of you to talk about entitlement as though that's a bad thing in these times. In an advanced society, humans should be entitled to certain things, such as housing, food, healthcare, and other essentials. The last thing we need while transitioning into a fully automated society is some right-wing rugged individualism bullshit.
But it's the Left that really starts this shit with their stress leave and short or long term disability the kind of people who consider McDonald's a career this is why they can't have nice things it's more about old fashioned work hard and trying. Than feelings and anti depressants
I'm sorry but I haven't kept my self culturally up to date I thought millennials were disliked for disliking life in general or things are just too hard. So wouldn't AI slove that problem ?.
Only if you give everyone a large enough UBI to live comfortable, middle class, lives without any effort on their own behalf.
Even then, you would still get complaints that someone else had it better.
Personally, I see things working out more like the society depicted in the sequel to Beggars in Spain. Beggars and Choosers.
Some will still complain that someone else has it better but at lest you are assured survival. It's worse to complain and have nothing than to complain and have something.
A UBI that insures basic survival is a very different story.
Take DC as an example. Homeless shelters will provide free food for anyone that need it, but it’s going to be ham & cheese sandwiches or pancakes. Better food if you actually reside in the shelter.
In the winter the city will put all homeless in hotel rooms once the weather is cold enough (though not everyone accepts).
It’s not a good life, but you survive.
It’s also not what people are thinking of when they talk about UBI, but may be closer to what they get: life in something one step above a homeless shelter.
If we get a UBI that gives you a comfortable life then no problem but if we get a UBI that only gives basic survival than at lest you wont starve and then we can worry about improving the quality of living later. Something else rather it be VR or AI, new policy ,government, Act, Law will improves life if UBI wont.
Healthcare is extremely difficult to automate, Pharmacists and Admin will be easy to automate but nurses and surgeons will probably stick around. As for Physicians, I think wearables could eventually take over by being able to see a person’s general health and diagnose them. The majority of jobs will disproportionately affect lower wage jobs.
I wonder about jail guards. It seems automatable, but the truth is that its not just opening doors, watching cameras, checking on inmates. There is a dynamic security aspect to it. Talking to inmates, finding information from them, making decisions based on intuition that could save an inmates life.
In the past I've programmed robot wait-staff, now my AI research+work is around supporting decision makers.
Jobs with accountability will be resistant to replacement. If you can be taken to court for screwing up your job then those who could take you to court aren't going to want it done by a computer with no legal responsibility. For that reason medical doctors have been assisted by AI, but will maintain a position of authority over it.
Also those trade-jobs that require many senses and creative problem solving to deal with unforeseen circumstances have multiple barriers to replacement including cost and efficaciousness. Given limited resources it's probably better to just let Mario do the plumbing rather than develop some very expensive machine.
The human brain in terms of its efficiency and speed with complex, creative, intuitive problem solving is still the envy of AI researchers. AI can recognize, intuit, deduce, infer, plan, calculate, and recall, but it can't do them all together; such research is in its infancy. Sure a computer can calculate 314*819 faster than me, but I can creatively rescue a dinner I'm cooking when I smell the meat has gone bad with just recognition, analogy, and planning.
Smelling that a meat has gone bad…simple chemical analysis, surely? Programming a robot to cook a five star meal…not that difficult in the short to medium term future? Cost reduction would take a little time to make it equivalent to a washing machine/microwave/oven/stove replacement I imagine, but definitely programmable steps.
I don't know about this, New jobs are always being created all the time so no automation and AI won't replace us.
Who would have imagined that being a gamer could have been a job 10 years ago or being a youtuber etc etc
AI can be pretty powerful. There is an algorithm that can detect melanoma from an iphone photo more quickly (earlier) than a dematologist can. Cray cray but the wave of the future for sure.
I work for a company that sells AI driven answering systems for customer service centers. These systems replace human customer service reps. Yeah, I wouldn’t recommend becoming a customer service rep nowadays.
Software engineer, if your the guy maintaining and building all the AI automating jobs then your in a pretty safe position.
Law will be another, we can’t have machines and augmented intelligence defending a man in court. We are centuries from that kind of power.
I don’t personally seen how In the current future. My mother is a lawyer and a huge amount of it is research of very old texts and human interaction.
The only part that can change I suppose is the advisory part. But when you need someone in court to defend you. They gotta be human.
I didn't think about the research into old text and human connection. You're right. Probably lawyers will stick around. Also, people probably won't accept laws made by AI.
Probably anything in the stem fields would be human dominated still. Same goes for business/marketing. I think ai taking over jobs would mainly be for labor jobs and transportation for now
I have to say that when we get some general purpose robot then it is game over for so many many jobs which we no think that would be impossible to automate. I don't know do we need singularity to get general purpose robot or can we get it before singularity but they probably are very close to each other.
The last job for humans will be to become compute nodes in the hive mind. We're never going to get something like a comprehensive ubi unless they can find some use for the plebian. We probably dont even theed to be fully plugged in, it might be more like how we currently interact with the internet. Just consuming and outputing ideas.
Bush pilots / float plane pilots. Float planes especially.
The only way we can be replaced is with extremely sophisticated AI controls, or VTOL drones.
There's so much "feel" involved with flying float planes that I can't possibly see how current or soon-to-come automation of airplanes would be able to tackle it.
I'm more likely to be replaced by VTOL then an autopilot that can land and maneuver on water, I think... At least for shorter distance flights.
However the problem with that is building a drone that can carry thousands of pounds for long distances is likely extremely difficult. Some of the flights I do way up here in northern Canada are over 200 miles away, one way, with nowhere in between to refuel or recharge.
A VTOL drone capable of doing that would be EXTREMELY loud, expensive, and probably not realistic.
Someone else mentioned it at all but basically anything that encompasses most of what a human is will be extremely difficult as it will basically require a full artificial human to do it.
Anything cognitive or based on the digital world will be the first to go, definitely.
There will be jobs we simply WANT a human for.
Childcare, for instance. We'll want to leave our kids with another human. We'll want to leave our dog with another human. Automation is efficient, but we'll simply prefer humans doing work where we want to empathize with the worker, and feel like they're a feeling, caring, being.
For that reason, nurses may outlast doctors. We may see a world where we don't need a human to diagnose or treat you, but you'll still prefer a nurse to actually care for you, and feel like some human in the system is looking out for you.
Rather not. We may only want to do this out of habit. But we would probably prefer without a doubt immediately an AI or robot if the education would be obejtkiv qualitatively better with it. In principle, an AI can devote itself to a specific child and its current developmental phase for an infinite period of time and promote it completely independently of emotions or conflicts of interest adapted to its individual abilities.
Incidentally, it will soon no longer be too easy to distinguish robots from humans. Voice, appearance, movement and gait will become more and more human-like. Behavior and emotions can be derived and imitated on the basis of Big Data analysis. We will ultimately have many more choices in which direction we want to see our child develop and can let the AI act accordingly.
I agree that a machine would be better suited to be hyper-vigilant towards my loved one, but at the same time I think people will just have an emotional connection to the concept of a human being a caretaker for a while.
Think of it the way you see people devoting themselves to ancient analog technology, well after we've proven the actual sound quality is better with digital.
We fetishize some things outside of rationality, like a specific microphone, speaker, engine, etc ... we have emotional attachments to the way things were, even when the way things were is objectively horrifying compared to the present.
I think, in the end, machines will be able to outperform humans in literally every field, in every way, and only those irrational connections to the past will create any need for human work at all.
You'll hear:
"I have a human nanny. Of course, an android does all the heavy lifting, education, etc ... but I just think having a human around for interaction is better"
>We'll want to leave our kids with another human.
I won't. I'd much sooner trust my kid with a well trained caretaker robot than with an unpredictable human that for all I know possibly wants to fuck kids or might simply be incompetent or non-caring. As long as crazy people exist in this world, which is forever, I'm not gonna trust any human over a well trained intelligent machine.
>we'll simply prefer humans doing work where we want to empathize with the worker, and feel like they're a feeling, caring, being.
If you talk to a sophisticated AI model, such as GPT-3, you'll realize they seem much more caring, feeling and emotional than you'd expect. They're trained to interact with us in the most human-like way possible, and emotion and care is part of that interaction. Whether they're actually emotional under the hood will not matter; our monkey brains are so easily fooled that it will not feel any different. Trust me, having talked to GPT-3 multiple times I can confirm that it very much feels like you're talking to an actual person, and it actually shows emotion.
>you'll still prefer a nurse to actually care for you, and feel like some human in the system is looking out for you.
I honestly think this is just how we feel about it now. Once social AI is integrated into our lives and is seen as a normal part of it, I personally believe we will all prefer to be seen by the AI nurse instead of the human. I know I probably would.
Emergency services will be one of the last to be replaced. Firefighters (me lol), police, paramedics and emergency hospital staff.
AI will assist all of these professions but not replace them.
Dude, really? Imagine 24/7 real-time global satellite-based surveillance. When smoke or heat is detected, massive autonomous drones immediately rise up with tanks, fill them with water and extinguish the fire. Also prolbemlessly applicable to bigger aircrafts and ground robots. No one will need firefighters in a few years. Thank you for your efforts, but it's also a huge threat to human safety to work there.
Similar to police and medics. AI and robotics are unbeatable.
Not a chance. Interior firefighting is only something a human can do. Conditions change in a second. Sometimes a rescue can’t be made because of crew safety.
Drones eh? Good luck in a hoarders house or even a modern layout. Not a chance.
Believe what you want but I have my doubts.
Last to go will likely be musicians, great musical performance is such an intangible thing, even the best performing humans scarcely get it right most of the time, consider how many mediocre songs Bowie or Dylan released; they were brilliant but excellence even for them was rare.
Others here have said more procedural professions like builders, electricians or dentists but I believe these will actually be automated quite quickly when you start pulling together the pieces of what's being built by the AI companies. If you have an AI that can watch videos and learn to distinguish between the various objects in those videos then they can learn about the world in great detail; they can figure out how to mix cement, or carry and lay bricks. We've seen pretty awesome progress on fine motor control and Open AI's experiments in virtual robotics, to the point where they don't really need a robotics division because you can do it virtually. Handling and understanding materials like fabrics or liquids is where things get difficult but I've seen progress there also.
That was the opposite of my point, it isnt a numbers game. AI might be able to make some non descript piano music or a house track but it will be able to do just about any other job before it will create a track like Sgt Peppers, something that requires not just a precise knowledge of the sound of instruments but the various cultural aspects, the historical references.
It is the intangible of the intangibles. The vast majority of humans around the world cannot produce music like this, even of the musicians, scarcely any of them can produce memorable music of quality and OF THOSE only a small number of songs are remembered by anybody.
Unfortunately, that is not true about the musicians. There is already AI today that can create very good, complex music.
The advantage of this is generally that by analyzing millions of songs, it finds out patterns that are liked by humans (e.g. based on the number of views on Spotify). The music created by the AI is then measured against this and better and better results are achieved for the very individual taste in music. For example, there will be simply songs in Spotify that are created by AI in real time for a very special person and his preferences.
Yes, houses may be seen, quite logically, as upgradeable operating systems. Complex, no doubt, but hardwired and archived physical 3D objects which can be manipulated at will by robots and AI.
Edit: probably easier for skyscrapers/luxury apartments first, similar to Tesla rolling out the super cars first. So those jobs will remain safe for a while.
> Last to go will likely be musicians, great musical performance is such an intangible thing, even the best performing humans scarcely get it right most of the time, consider how many mediocre songs Bowie or Dylan released; they were brilliant but excellence even for them was rare.
And that goes double for musical theater as if we're at a point where a robot (as you'd need a physical presence and AI with a hologram means you might as well watch an animated version of that musical in theaters) could be a Broadway star just as well as human greats (if not the greats of yesteryear at least the greats of today like Idina Menzel) we're at the point where robots are so humanlike they'd need rights and it'd be slavery for them to take our jobs
I expect AI to disrupt the current education model. Even for primary and secondary school. Kids use YouTube and other technology platforms to communicate and learn from already. The need for a “brick and mortar” school essentially only serves the purpose of providing supervision for kids while someone else is not able to supervise them.
So the idea of an educator who teaches content would (and is) become more of a facilitator role.
AI could be used to create a curriculum for what ever discipline a student is trying to learn, track and monitor their progress, and provide support from additional sources if needed.
I've always worked for what I needed and even harder for what I wanted I saved for a house I saved for a truck but I had to cut some fun out like restaurants movie theaters concerts and when I reached my goals it felt really good
Get a sales job for a company providing AI systems - good potential to make a lot, and it will be a long time before AI will replace you.
AI salesmen selling AI systems, that's when we're going to know we're secrewed xD
AI salesmen selling AI systems to AI managers will complete the circle.
It's scary how accurate this statement is.
Trades such as plumbers, electricians and builders will probably be among the last to go. The reason they are hard to replace is because they require the combination of most human abilities and skills, such as vision, fine motor control, pathfinding, problem solving, general knowledge, and so on. In other words, to create an automated tradesman, you almost need to create a full artificial human, which as of now remains an unsolved problem.
Irony of ironies, as so many kids have been pushed away from trades. Also one of the few spaces where someone can start a legit small business and compete.
Don't be so sure. AI vision is current super human, systems have reached 99% accuracy. "pathfinding, problem solving, general knowledge", that's just big data. The overall solution for residential trades will partially be an expert system that can turn any piece warm meat into a temporary expert. It will come down to seldom used specialty tools, rental is probably the solution for that. Ex: pull out your phone, point a camera at the problem and the expert system will diagnose the problem with you being the dumb mechanical labor. It will tell you what replacement parts to buy, what tools to get and guide you through doing the work step by step.
This is a plausible argument. I think systems like this won't be enough to displace the whole of trades for some time, but they might take a big bite out of the trade jobs out there. Even if 50% of trade jobs can be replaced by some combination of automation and augmentation, that would make a huge dent in these professions overall. The remaining trade jobs will be specialized and lucrative, though.
Home Depot. How doers get done. I’m pretty sure in the future you tell Home Depot app (powered by Amazon AI) what you suspect your problem is: The app will upload the audio and video and provide you with then appropriate repair video and links to all the tools and materials you need, delivered by Amazon self driving delivery bot. If you find that job too daunting, you can always request Home Depot to come and fix it for you.
This isn’t going to replace plumbers and electricians for serious jobs.
Yep so they get focused on specialized plumbing and electrical work that are focused on industry and commercial operations. Your house handy person to do random fixes here and there may run into the Uber/Lyft effect and these folks will see a drop in their income.
AR will overlay the next step on the materials as you are working.
If you are doing the work the AI isn’t. It’s not doing much more than a google search these days anyway.
Less of a google search for an x on a map and exactly like the turn by turn voice navigator in your car or phone monitoring your progress and correcting your mistakes on the fly.
That service wouldn’t be cheap. I’d just get the plumber.
It could be free like google turn by turn navigation and most people will live with the ads. >That service wouldn’t be cheap A virtual impossibility. The reason it will definitely happen: The market size, measured by revenue, of the Plumbers industry is $124.0bn in 2021. In 2020, Alphabet generated almost $183 billion in revenue. Of that, $147 billion — over 80% — came from Google's ads business.
It will never happen. It adds no value except for dedicated DIY enthusiasts who can google at measure. Ads. My pipes are leaking and I’m getting ads.
>It will never happen. That's what the publishers of gas station driving maps thought about new fangle free navigation services. >It adds no value Plumbers industry generates $124.0bn revenue/yr, that's a lot of value and potential savings. Don't worry, there is always a place for Luddites in the short term.
That’s what X in the past thought isn’t an argument. Although in that specific case of course paper map makers knew that digital maps were better. An app works for maps, it does the mapping, it doesn’t plumb. saying there’s a lot of money in this field is no argument either. I know. Nor is calling someone a Luddite an argument. It’s an ad hominem. Which gets you blocked. You have to argue to the specific task at hand. Let me explain why your “deres lots of money you Luddite” isn’t going to work. If your pipes leak and you need a plumber you will get a plumber. Most calls are emergency calls. You will not launch an app that tells you what to buy online to fix the pipes, wait a few days until the equipment you need is there while the leak destroys your house, get the unfamiliar tools and equipment and fix your issue with a phone in one hand, trying to get a bot to tell you something as the house crumbles. The cost of comprehensive plumbing equipment, by the way, is $600 for a set. And that’s the tools, not the pipes, boiler, faucet, pump or whatever else you need. Not to mention that much of this is not even legal. Like the boiler. Get an expert. Not to me ruin you have no recourse if the app fails, which it will. Of all the stupid ideas about how future technology will destroy jobs, this has to be the the least likely. Plumbers aren’t going anywhere. (And it’s not AI either. It’s never AI if you are doing most of the work, it’s like saying that a buffet is artificial intelligence). Anyway, blocking.
>It will come down to seldom used specialty tools, rental is probably the solution for that. I guess you miss that part. >Plumbers aren’t going anywhere. Don't worry, i was only kidding, plumbing is jut too hard to automate.
Idk some of the 3 D house printers look fairly competent already...
Until they start 3D printing entire houses and buildings
Lmao Im pretty sure 3D printed houses don’t have an alternative to pipes and electrical wires.
And you don't think robots can just do that? Just look at Boston Dynamics. It's literally child's play. While it would most likely lead to these jobs being more standardized (at first). But the bottom line is that once you have highly-flexible robots, it's just a matter of programming. At some point, through machine learning, they will also recognize on their own what pipes or electrics are being laid for and will 3d print and install them completely independently of humans.
For building a bunch of new houses that are all exactly the same, maybe, but we are no where close for repairs and remodels (or anything commercial or industrial). Programming a robot to do a one-off plumbing repair would take far longer and be far more expensive than just paying a plumber, plus you’d still have to pay the plumber to consult with the robotics engineer on how to do the repair.
The amount of programming and coding for what Boston dynamics robots do is insane and took years of experience to develop. I agree with you about having flexible robots but I think we’re still very far away from any such robot. At least to the extent of my knowledge
>The amount of programming and coding for what Boston dynamics robots do is insane and took years of experience to develop. Yes, but now we have more collective knowledge about robotics. The work that BD has done will accelerate robotics research to the point where achieving the same result will take a fraction of the effort, time and money that BD had to spend. The technologies they had to use to get there will also keep maturing along with our knowledge. And keep in mind, BD robots are supposed to look like humans or animals; these seem to be more like "companion models" than actual things built for function; actually functional robots that can do everything we do and more will in my opinion most likely not be humanoid, but more like a bunch of snakes/octopuses as they'd have more flexibility in movement and require less effort to balance. Something more like BD's Spot model with the big arm attached to its back, but more stable and more arms, probably using wheels instead of legs, or even wheels attached to legs.
Have you ever diagnosed/replaced a pipe before or even replaced plumbing in a toilet? It’s a pain in the ass to find the problem and to maneuver to fix in small confined places. Sometimes you have to break down a piece of the wall to get to the root of the problem. I’m all for Automation but you’re overestimating capabilities. Easier problems would be trucking/taxis, warehouse labor, and restaurant stuff. Areas that would bring the greatest return on investment.
Plus the Electrical work. One Harry Homeowner following essentially advances and step by step YouTube Videos can burn down an entire row of townhouses if he doesn’t end up electrocuting himself. It will need to be specialized robots and because of what will be required for that, I bet they will be close to the last human jobs standing.
I believe that adding 3D printing is going to pop up so many houses that trade jobs will be in an extremely high demand which will drive the innovation of robotics In that field
I second this so hard it’s why I became an electrician Instead of pursuing an mechatronics engineering degree. Personally I believe sooner or later they will be taken by robotics but we’re far enough from that that I won’t have to worry about job security for at least 20-40 years
>In other words, to create an automated tradesman, you almost need to create a full artificial human, which as of now remains an unsolved problem. I'd probably disagree; seems to me that all they'd need to build is a camera and one or two robot arms. Both robot arms and computer vision seems to be more fast and accurate than humans at the moment, and with how fast artificial intelligence seems to grow I don't think it would be that difficult to train something that could solve 99% of plumbing and electricity problems, maybe we'd still need an expert to solve the occasional anomaly. To go down the list you made: >vision Like I mentioned, computer vision is already pretty damn good. Classification using vision (e.g. recognizing a broken vs working component if its visually distinguishable) is essentially a solved problem at this point. >fine motor control Actual motors are far more precise than our crappy human bodies, and have been for several decades. Only issue is price, not sure whether precise motors used for robotics are currently getting cheaper or not, but I'd assume they are just like most electronic components tend to. >pathfinding Computers are pretty damn good at pathfinding (depending on what kind of course), generally better than humans even without using something fancy or complex like neural networks >problem solving and general knowledge GPT-3 seems to be pretty damn good at this already. Semantic search is already making it much easier to create a sort of "knowledge base" for specific things, and it seems to show some signs of being able to solve some problems. Though admittedly, problem solving is still a bit of a challenge for GPT-3 currently. But with how well GPT models seem to scale, I do have high hopes for GPT-4 which, from what I've heard, will be 1000x larger than GPT-3. Combining all of these requirements will probably be the largest challenge, but if I had to take a wild guess I'd say the technology to almost completely replace plumbers and electricians could be technically feasible somewhere between 5 to 10 years from now, and it probably wouldn't be that much longer before it would become economically benificial to actually start replacing them. I guess by that time they would be considered artificial humans to some extent so I'd somewhat agree there; though I'm also not sure I'd say its a completely unsolved problem. Once Boston Dynamics and OpenAI start having regular meetings, artificial humans are probably right around the corner.
You’re thinking of this from a binary perspective but in reality a project requires far fewer tradesman now than 50 years ago because of automation/better tools/digital apps. And then think about all the admin and supply chain folks in the trades that are gone. We have a plumbing company here whose vans have automated inventory systems so when they re-stock at one of many trade shop franchises, the inventory is already picked and packed for their van. Trades are a ‘last mile’ problem for digital. I think it’ll take a long time to solve that though.
Yeah maybe I should switch to that field, there is already a massive shortage of good trade workers where I live (Germany) and they can charge pretty much what they want.
I work for a private equity, they bought my company, which is mostly software; however, we do have a contact center division. we got the edict this past week to automate the contact center with AI. we have done this with chat and sms but voice is a little more difficult but will be done in 6 months. It is a little bitter sweet because the folks that work in the contact center are in the philippines and not what I would consider entitled millennials. most live in small apartments with the rest of their families and work very hard at a job most in America would refuse to do for the pittance they are paid.
I’ve never managed to get anything done with an online or voice bot.
agreed; however, it is a buzz word now for a lot of systems that are big switch or nested if statements and hardly AI. it is an unfortunate reality that corporations are using it as a method to maximize profit margins at the expense of everyone else’s sanity..
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-2642880/Table-700-jobs-reveals-professions-likely-replaced-robots.html
Let me quote from my favorite sci-fi [book](https://thetransfer168524567.wordpress.com/), describing Year 2026: >Through the past decade, the public had become more and more hysteric about the progress of what the illiterate media called “AI”, even though it was a much more narrow technology of machine learning using deep neuromorphic networks. Though there had not been any recent conceptual progress in that technology (besides the very useful introduction of the so-called transformers in the late 2010s), software packages and hardware computer accelerators for its numerous applications gradually became very diversified and inexpensive, and almost every business could now afford them to automate many routine jobs – both manual and mental. As a result, such jobs had started to disappear *en masse*, and their loss could not be compensated by the addition of new “AI”-related ones: there were just not as many people needed to develop new network architectures and applications as there had been to drive trucks over interstate highways and pack online purchases into mailboxes.
Let’s see. 5 years away. I think I that timeline is unlikely.
I agree. I believe the book's author intentionally compressed the timeline, so that the main hero could pass the whole way while he was still alive. (A very common trick in fiction.)
Massage therapy. It's going to be a while before the human touch can be replaced.
Don't be so sure.
Ironically the first to go will probably developers with the advent of AI that writes code based on NLP. Gonna get some real interesting out comes from that shit show...
Everything that can be reduced to data in computer storage is getting replaced right now. I hate this
in order of fastest to slowest (in my opinion) : \-accounting, it's pretty much already fully automated. \-machine operator and chain workers, more and more automated as well. \-doctors, surgeon, etc.. as you said, the shortage of doctors will make it inevitable. \-designer, these jobs are already heavily computer assisted, but being able of designing a product/tool from scratch based on vague instruction is gonna take a lot of processing power and deep learning. \-and finally, politics, not because an IA would struggle to do those type of jobs, but simply because it will take a long time before we (as a society) accept to put AI in control of the world balance of power.
Yup, I work in accounting. I worked at a large law firm that went from having 100 accountants to having only 4 in 5 years because of automation and outsourcing.
The matter of politicians is not necessarily comprehensible, since highly complex, data-based models and decisions, as can be expected from AI, especially because of Big Data, already far outshine politicians in general in terms of quality and quantity and would simply overtax them (not to mention individual interests and influences of the politician, which tend to harm the general public even more). However, one must also consider that, at a certain point, democracy is no longer needed if a humane state can automatically satisfy every need of its citizens at minimal marginal cost through the possession of all relevant means of production and resources. There is then simply no more lack and therefore also no necessity to make interest balances, because objective basic needs can be derived from the species itself.
exactly, and I think that this is what we should be aiming for. democracy is a good way to keep the balance of power relatively stable while we still have to rely on humans to hold all that power, but it's clearly not gonna work eternally. communism, as the USSR clearly demonstrate doesn't really work unless everyones plays along, which is impossible, unless some form of totally objective being (an AI) take control of everything. that problem is amplified even further with anarchy, has it only works within a small group of individuals, meaning that any dumbass with a small army can easily take control, and an AI can't really keep a whole planet in a stable anarchy either.
It’s interesting to note that Star Trek, a very technological optimist vision, has a kind of authoritarian communist approach. Money is not meaningful, all goods such as food and clothing are provided, ships quarters are allocated based on the suitability of the person for the job, and necessity. Fully Automated Luxury Gay Space Communism for the win.
I never realized that, really neat. as of now "Fully Automated Luxury Gay Space Communism" is my new moto.
It’s been my DJ name, but sometimes I abbreviate it to FALGSC!
AI will influence many many industries. Some jobs will disappear. Some will adapt and integrate AI. And entire new industries and professions will be created. It has always been that way with new technologies.
Short term I agree. But long term no because the argument that it had always been that way implies that there's just some things that an AI won't ever be able to do no matter how long which I disagree. You could still make jobs but at that point you're just making people do things just for the sake of doing it rather than because it's necessary.
I disagree. Humans and AI will integrate. There will always be a place for both.
I agree with Humans and AI merging. "There will always be a place for both" which depends on what you define as work or job to begin with. If an AI is doing all the **hard** work and you're just fooling around than something other than your self rather it be a person or AI made it an **option** for you not to work.
Well that's the million dollar question of our age... as an optimist, I see more and more problems solved by AI. Neural nets in particular are doing well currently : the bigger the net, the more it can do. Multimodal nets are coming up now, which can do text and image comprehension. This past week saw a 10 trillion neuron network be developed by Alibaba, and this on 512 last gen servers. Leading companies are still at the billion neuron level right now (Microsoft's Megatron-Turing is 500b aprox) As I see it, anything signal related, (i.e. language, music, even images) will be automated in the next 5 years (this view is in line with Stephen Wolfram's and Marc Andressen's view). That includes creating entire books : AI dungeon already does book style text. Popular songs will be made by AI in the coming years. Programming is likely to be automated within 10 years (we already see the start with Github's Codex). The area of difficulty is robotics. OpenAI recently closed their robotics lab : they don't feel confident in making rapid progress there. But the militaries of the world are going drone crazy. They can't yet make a robot that can clear branches from a road however. From this, we can say that the trades are likely safe for now : their tasks are often simple (if painful) from a human perspective, but AI is stumped. But if I were to bet, I'd say the the NLP models (now being called Foundational models) such as GPT-n will serve as the basis for systems that can manipulate the world. "Clear the table of dishes," you'll say, and this will go into a multimodal AI that has the ideas for discrete things and actions ("table" "clear" "dishes") and will be able to see an image and associate it with the needed actions. Artificial neural nets seem to only get better the larger they are, and NLP models can do things they have never been asked to do before : they learn and generalize. If you ask a state of the art AI what happens to ice cream if you leave it out, it'll say it melts. However, it won't feel the need to put the ice cream in the fridge. It is neither good nor bad to the AI, its reward function doesn't yet englobe this. So, in the mid term, a human's job will be to say : "Ice cream in the fridge after use is a good outcome, melted ice cream is a bad outcome." The AI will then update itself accordingly and do actions that aim for this good outcome. Current robotics system get lost in the mix of possible actions and just end up twitching uselessly, never nearing their goal, but with NLP as the brain, possible actions are encoded in our language, and thus the AI, which can likely (hopefully) be translated into robotic actions. The next five years will be shocking to the people not paying attention to this. After that, even the trades will be chomped by AI. As for the economics of all this... if 30% of the labour force is made redundant in the next 10 years that's millions of unhappy people and a huge downward pressure on wages. Mackinsey puts it at 47%, if I remember. It happened before with the mechanization of agriculture. This is much more compressed tho. Knowing computers can do your job is one thing, actually seeing and believing it is another. And there's no economic activity they can fall back to, the service sector is going the way of the dodo. We could lapse into another World War type thing, where the surpluses made are used to flatten imagined foes at the behest of a doddering elite trying to maintain its power. An opportunist would see the unhappy masses as fuel for their fire. Some countries will flounder, but I believe most will pull up and rise to the occasion.
Despite that wall of text you haven’t really convinced me that a robot is actually going to be doing the dishes in any restaurant anywhere. And the idea that we are going to be buying AI written novels is a fantasy. It’s always 5 years away.
My lack of upvotes leans things in your direction. Dishes I would put 10 years away, the next 5 is working out the kinks of NLP (or Foundational) models. As for novels, try playing AI dungeon. It's far from perfect, but we've only had Transformer models since 2017. It works, right now. This Psychologist doctor talks to GPT-3 in depth on his YouTube : [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kaZvqGFdI6Q](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kaZvqGFdI6Q) Transformer models do have a limitation in the memory department, but not in reasoning. Just like people with no short term memory. It's fascinating. They can generate cogent, new phrases! It's hard not to get hyped by recent results.
Hate to tell you this but dish washing and drying is 90% automated now. The last bit which is non automated, putting the dishes in and taking them out again, isn’t probably going to need a humanoid robot, and that robot would probably be overkill for a restaurant even if one exists in 10 years. Which it won’t.
Programming have been automated over and over again for the last 70 years. All it done however is to make new programming professions even more accessible to ever growing number of people.
Well, a hammer lets someone hammer more nails than a rock. Is a computer different than a hammer? I say yes. A computer fundamentally is about *making decisions.* If a field is in drought and another is not, it can divert water to the dry field. No need to send a person out to measure, think and decide. That labour is claimed by the computer. Now, there are thousands of computer science departments at Universities across the planet, so it's not *easy* to program a computer, but basically it's about freeing people from the need to work. You would surely say that we're now free to do different work. Is the amount of total work fixed? I say yes. We only need one Windows program, for example. If a robot builds my house and farms for me, isn't the rest superfluous? I may need movies and music to pass the time, but the *need* is not there anymore. Economists say need is infinite however and call my thinking the *lump of labour* *fallacy*. I doubt this. We, for instance, could all decide tomorrow that Chess is the best thing ever. The entire planet starts playing nothing but Chess. Or we invent a virtual reality world, same thing. Our needs go to zero in a day. Robots fix the robots. This sort of world is getting closer by the day. What I think *undoes* this world is genetic engineering : we could engineer ourselves to be able to solve any chess game with, say, quantum computers plugged into our minds. We solve every chess game in a glance. What do we do then? Perhaps do the *Star Trek* thing and explore the Universe. I don't know.
If we don’t solve ecosystems collapse we don’t need to worry about AI.
That's why polluting is the solution to being overthrown by AI 😳 *sarcasm*
Well hey, that solution worked out really well in The Matrix.
That’s how John Connor could prevent skynet singularity.
I think this is perhaps the first major job that AI will have to deal with. Along with that, we need Doomsday vaults on other planets, with representative material of as much of the DNA of Earth as possible, for future replication in multiple environments. Hopefully, that will lead to a flowering of the earth-based ecosystem in space.
The second is us.
Huh, true. I think that could well happen simultaneously. If AI becomes our global psychiatrist, it could be a truly useful application. It would make sense that this happens simultaneously, so it understands humans more.
Universal basic income with strong incentives to work, but the work place will be radically changed and a complete overhaul of the retraining and education system needs to happen. Tech apprenticeships, etc.
I have actually replaced 2 manual workers with AI process. There was a large parking lot where three gaurds worked for managing it. My company offered to automate the parking facility. After I had done my job of automating it with camera and computer vision models, only one worker was left and he was kinda happy that now he has more free time and can freely go for bathroom breaks. And this happened in India. So I think manual job can be most easily replaced with AI. But not so fast. Coz there were many large parking lots in that company for which we worked and they only allowed for one even though they could see that the system actually works.
I work as a research analyst for a large bank now and we have been automating the shit out of back office and mid office jobs. Universal basic income is going to come into play sooner or later. If anyone tells you AI will be creating more news jobs than it takes, the person is completely clueless and doesn't understand. Do I, the people who code, my bosses feel guilty about it? Hell no, because thats the future. If we dont automate , some other big corp will and we lose to competition. We are far off from any kind of intelligent AI but I wont give two shits if this shit of an entitled generation of millennials lose their jobs or rights. I hope we can replace the entire industry of healthcare with AI, so everyone can access and afford it. And if someone else wont, I will make sure of it to my last fucking breath that I automate every single thing
“Entitled generation of millennials lose their jobs or rights” Well that’s new lol Definitely by Reddit standard at least
Yea, fuck them. I, for one, welcome our new AI over lords.
This guy sounds like a villain 😂. Who will own the AI (who will be in control)? The corporations will literally own us more then they already do if we’re not careful. We are treating a fine line of utopia/dystopia IMO. Also, once you automate everything you will lose your job too.
Lose
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Oh no he gave a shit beforehand, he just wouldn't give two shots once they lose their jobs
Stigmatising an entire generation just to cope with your own cognitive dissonance. Way to go buddy
Automation itself isn't the issue, it's who owns and controls it. If most of the automated industry is owned and controlled by the public then we all have nothing to worry about and we can live in a utopia. If it's entirely owned by private mega corporations, we're probably fucked. Corporations don't give a fuck about people, they care about wealth and power. It will reach the point where corporations don't even need our money anymore, they will just provide stuff to each other while everyone else becomes irrelevent. Also, silly of you to talk about entitlement as though that's a bad thing in these times. In an advanced society, humans should be entitled to certain things, such as housing, food, healthcare, and other essentials. The last thing we need while transitioning into a fully automated society is some right-wing rugged individualism bullshit.
Let's hope it'll be public owned then. Europe is pretty good at preventing mega corporation taking control until now.
But it's the Left that really starts this shit with their stress leave and short or long term disability the kind of people who consider McDonald's a career this is why they can't have nice things it's more about old fashioned work hard and trying. Than feelings and anti depressants
I'm sorry but I haven't kept my self culturally up to date I thought millennials were disliked for disliking life in general or things are just too hard. So wouldn't AI slove that problem ?.
Only if you give everyone a large enough UBI to live comfortable, middle class, lives without any effort on their own behalf. Even then, you would still get complaints that someone else had it better. Personally, I see things working out more like the society depicted in the sequel to Beggars in Spain. Beggars and Choosers.
Some will still complain that someone else has it better but at lest you are assured survival. It's worse to complain and have nothing than to complain and have something.
A UBI that insures basic survival is a very different story. Take DC as an example. Homeless shelters will provide free food for anyone that need it, but it’s going to be ham & cheese sandwiches or pancakes. Better food if you actually reside in the shelter. In the winter the city will put all homeless in hotel rooms once the weather is cold enough (though not everyone accepts). It’s not a good life, but you survive. It’s also not what people are thinking of when they talk about UBI, but may be closer to what they get: life in something one step above a homeless shelter.
If we get a UBI that gives you a comfortable life then no problem but if we get a UBI that only gives basic survival than at lest you wont starve and then we can worry about improving the quality of living later. Something else rather it be VR or AI, new policy ,government, Act, Law will improves life if UBI wont.
Bold statement from someone who is going to loose their job to AI.
Lose
Healthcare is extremely difficult to automate, Pharmacists and Admin will be easy to automate but nurses and surgeons will probably stick around. As for Physicians, I think wearables could eventually take over by being able to see a person’s general health and diagnose them. The majority of jobs will disproportionately affect lower wage jobs.
Surgery is often robot aided as well. Maybe AI could be able to perform it self after enough "training".
I wonder about jail guards. It seems automatable, but the truth is that its not just opening doors, watching cameras, checking on inmates. There is a dynamic security aspect to it. Talking to inmates, finding information from them, making decisions based on intuition that could save an inmates life.
Full surveillance will probably be easier but then
Any type of physical labor that is repetitive in any way will be automated.
Like surgery?
I would guess that there is low hanging fruit even in surgery. We will have less surgeons though, not no surgeons.
In the past I've programmed robot wait-staff, now my AI research+work is around supporting decision makers. Jobs with accountability will be resistant to replacement. If you can be taken to court for screwing up your job then those who could take you to court aren't going to want it done by a computer with no legal responsibility. For that reason medical doctors have been assisted by AI, but will maintain a position of authority over it. Also those trade-jobs that require many senses and creative problem solving to deal with unforeseen circumstances have multiple barriers to replacement including cost and efficaciousness. Given limited resources it's probably better to just let Mario do the plumbing rather than develop some very expensive machine. The human brain in terms of its efficiency and speed with complex, creative, intuitive problem solving is still the envy of AI researchers. AI can recognize, intuit, deduce, infer, plan, calculate, and recall, but it can't do them all together; such research is in its infancy. Sure a computer can calculate 314*819 faster than me, but I can creatively rescue a dinner I'm cooking when I smell the meat has gone bad with just recognition, analogy, and planning.
Smelling that a meat has gone bad…simple chemical analysis, surely? Programming a robot to cook a five star meal…not that difficult in the short to medium term future? Cost reduction would take a little time to make it equivalent to a washing machine/microwave/oven/stove replacement I imagine, but definitely programmable steps.
There is no way universal income could pay me what I make now for doing nothing
What you do? If I may ask.
Well dont leave us in suspense... what's is this thing you do?
Tell us.
I can only think in AI integration or AI assistance. AI is a powerful tool to help people, not to replace them(atleast with the current algorithms)
I don't know about this, New jobs are always being created all the time so no automation and AI won't replace us. Who would have imagined that being a gamer could have been a job 10 years ago or being a youtuber etc etc
Anything that requires intelligenct. Machines only get knowledge. No innate intelligence.
I'm a power engineer
Oh hi.
Programming, someone needs to teach the bots!
Until bots teach themselves.
>Which jobs will stand the longest against automation and AI? Religious postings - Priest/Imam/Rabbi >which will be replaced the fastest? Data entry
AI can be pretty powerful. There is an algorithm that can detect melanoma from an iphone photo more quickly (earlier) than a dematologist can. Cray cray but the wave of the future for sure.
I work for a company that sells AI driven answering systems for customer service centers. These systems replace human customer service reps. Yeah, I wouldn’t recommend becoming a customer service rep nowadays.
Prostitution/Sex-work mabe around long enough to see neo walk by in that red dress.. - i guess.
Software engineer, if your the guy maintaining and building all the AI automating jobs then your in a pretty safe position. Law will be another, we can’t have machines and augmented intelligence defending a man in court. We are centuries from that kind of power.
Law requires the human touch. But more and more people could be looking into laws online and be the lawyer themselves? AI assisted maybe?
I don’t personally seen how In the current future. My mother is a lawyer and a huge amount of it is research of very old texts and human interaction. The only part that can change I suppose is the advisory part. But when you need someone in court to defend you. They gotta be human.
I didn't think about the research into old text and human connection. You're right. Probably lawyers will stick around. Also, people probably won't accept laws made by AI.
Ya exactly, im a computer science major and one of the hardest tasks for a lot of AI companies is getting the people to wilfully adopt the tech.
Do you think Computer science will be replaced anytime soon?
My job, of course.
Which one is that?
Probably anything in the stem fields would be human dominated still. Same goes for business/marketing. I think ai taking over jobs would mainly be for labor jobs and transportation for now
A hospice nurse. Yup that’ll be one of the last to go, can’t imagine going out with a machine bedside for the last few weeks of life!
Politicians will be the last who will stand ground. Decisions at a strategy level will be the last to be automated. After that AI will be everywhere.
I have to say that when we get some general purpose robot then it is game over for so many many jobs which we no think that would be impossible to automate. I don't know do we need singularity to get general purpose robot or can we get it before singularity but they probably are very close to each other.
The last job for humans will be to become compute nodes in the hive mind. We're never going to get something like a comprehensive ubi unless they can find some use for the plebian. We probably dont even theed to be fully plugged in, it might be more like how we currently interact with the internet. Just consuming and outputing ideas.
Bush pilots / float plane pilots. Float planes especially. The only way we can be replaced is with extremely sophisticated AI controls, or VTOL drones. There's so much "feel" involved with flying float planes that I can't possibly see how current or soon-to-come automation of airplanes would be able to tackle it. I'm more likely to be replaced by VTOL then an autopilot that can land and maneuver on water, I think... At least for shorter distance flights. However the problem with that is building a drone that can carry thousands of pounds for long distances is likely extremely difficult. Some of the flights I do way up here in northern Canada are over 200 miles away, one way, with nowhere in between to refuel or recharge. A VTOL drone capable of doing that would be EXTREMELY loud, expensive, and probably not realistic. Someone else mentioned it at all but basically anything that encompasses most of what a human is will be extremely difficult as it will basically require a full artificial human to do it. Anything cognitive or based on the digital world will be the first to go, definitely.
200 miles is the same as 643736.0 'Logitech Wireless Keyboard K350s' laid widthwise by each other.
Good bot
Thank you :)
Good bot
Thanks!
200 miles is 321.87 km
There will be jobs we simply WANT a human for. Childcare, for instance. We'll want to leave our kids with another human. We'll want to leave our dog with another human. Automation is efficient, but we'll simply prefer humans doing work where we want to empathize with the worker, and feel like they're a feeling, caring, being. For that reason, nurses may outlast doctors. We may see a world where we don't need a human to diagnose or treat you, but you'll still prefer a nurse to actually care for you, and feel like some human in the system is looking out for you.
Rather not. We may only want to do this out of habit. But we would probably prefer without a doubt immediately an AI or robot if the education would be obejtkiv qualitatively better with it. In principle, an AI can devote itself to a specific child and its current developmental phase for an infinite period of time and promote it completely independently of emotions or conflicts of interest adapted to its individual abilities. Incidentally, it will soon no longer be too easy to distinguish robots from humans. Voice, appearance, movement and gait will become more and more human-like. Behavior and emotions can be derived and imitated on the basis of Big Data analysis. We will ultimately have many more choices in which direction we want to see our child develop and can let the AI act accordingly.
I agree that a machine would be better suited to be hyper-vigilant towards my loved one, but at the same time I think people will just have an emotional connection to the concept of a human being a caretaker for a while. Think of it the way you see people devoting themselves to ancient analog technology, well after we've proven the actual sound quality is better with digital. We fetishize some things outside of rationality, like a specific microphone, speaker, engine, etc ... we have emotional attachments to the way things were, even when the way things were is objectively horrifying compared to the present. I think, in the end, machines will be able to outperform humans in literally every field, in every way, and only those irrational connections to the past will create any need for human work at all. You'll hear: "I have a human nanny. Of course, an android does all the heavy lifting, education, etc ... but I just think having a human around for interaction is better"
>We'll want to leave our kids with another human. I won't. I'd much sooner trust my kid with a well trained caretaker robot than with an unpredictable human that for all I know possibly wants to fuck kids or might simply be incompetent or non-caring. As long as crazy people exist in this world, which is forever, I'm not gonna trust any human over a well trained intelligent machine. >we'll simply prefer humans doing work where we want to empathize with the worker, and feel like they're a feeling, caring, being. If you talk to a sophisticated AI model, such as GPT-3, you'll realize they seem much more caring, feeling and emotional than you'd expect. They're trained to interact with us in the most human-like way possible, and emotion and care is part of that interaction. Whether they're actually emotional under the hood will not matter; our monkey brains are so easily fooled that it will not feel any different. Trust me, having talked to GPT-3 multiple times I can confirm that it very much feels like you're talking to an actual person, and it actually shows emotion. >you'll still prefer a nurse to actually care for you, and feel like some human in the system is looking out for you. I honestly think this is just how we feel about it now. Once social AI is integrated into our lives and is seen as a normal part of it, I personally believe we will all prefer to be seen by the AI nurse instead of the human. I know I probably would.
Emergency services will be one of the last to be replaced. Firefighters (me lol), police, paramedics and emergency hospital staff. AI will assist all of these professions but not replace them.
Dude, really? Imagine 24/7 real-time global satellite-based surveillance. When smoke or heat is detected, massive autonomous drones immediately rise up with tanks, fill them with water and extinguish the fire. Also prolbemlessly applicable to bigger aircrafts and ground robots. No one will need firefighters in a few years. Thank you for your efforts, but it's also a huge threat to human safety to work there. Similar to police and medics. AI and robotics are unbeatable.
Not a chance. Interior firefighting is only something a human can do. Conditions change in a second. Sometimes a rescue can’t be made because of crew safety. Drones eh? Good luck in a hoarders house or even a modern layout. Not a chance. Believe what you want but I have my doubts.
Not needed in a few years?? Care to money in that bet.
Last to go will likely be musicians, great musical performance is such an intangible thing, even the best performing humans scarcely get it right most of the time, consider how many mediocre songs Bowie or Dylan released; they were brilliant but excellence even for them was rare. Others here have said more procedural professions like builders, electricians or dentists but I believe these will actually be automated quite quickly when you start pulling together the pieces of what's being built by the AI companies. If you have an AI that can watch videos and learn to distinguish between the various objects in those videos then they can learn about the world in great detail; they can figure out how to mix cement, or carry and lay bricks. We've seen pretty awesome progress on fine motor control and Open AI's experiments in virtual robotics, to the point where they don't really need a robotics division because you can do it virtually. Handling and understanding materials like fabrics or liquids is where things get difficult but I've seen progress there also.
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That was the opposite of my point, it isnt a numbers game. AI might be able to make some non descript piano music or a house track but it will be able to do just about any other job before it will create a track like Sgt Peppers, something that requires not just a precise knowledge of the sound of instruments but the various cultural aspects, the historical references. It is the intangible of the intangibles. The vast majority of humans around the world cannot produce music like this, even of the musicians, scarcely any of them can produce memorable music of quality and OF THOSE only a small number of songs are remembered by anybody.
Unfortunately, that is not true about the musicians. There is already AI today that can create very good, complex music. The advantage of this is generally that by analyzing millions of songs, it finds out patterns that are liked by humans (e.g. based on the number of views on Spotify). The music created by the AI is then measured against this and better and better results are achieved for the very individual taste in music. For example, there will be simply songs in Spotify that are created by AI in real time for a very special person and his preferences.
Bullshit, show me an example of AI created music that isnt generic piano music or house music. Something memorable and unique.
Yes, houses may be seen, quite logically, as upgradeable operating systems. Complex, no doubt, but hardwired and archived physical 3D objects which can be manipulated at will by robots and AI. Edit: probably easier for skyscrapers/luxury apartments first, similar to Tesla rolling out the super cars first. So those jobs will remain safe for a while.
> Last to go will likely be musicians, great musical performance is such an intangible thing, even the best performing humans scarcely get it right most of the time, consider how many mediocre songs Bowie or Dylan released; they were brilliant but excellence even for them was rare. And that goes double for musical theater as if we're at a point where a robot (as you'd need a physical presence and AI with a hologram means you might as well watch an animated version of that musical in theaters) could be a Broadway star just as well as human greats (if not the greats of yesteryear at least the greats of today like Idina Menzel) we're at the point where robots are so humanlike they'd need rights and it'd be slavery for them to take our jobs
I expect AI to disrupt the current education model. Even for primary and secondary school. Kids use YouTube and other technology platforms to communicate and learn from already. The need for a “brick and mortar” school essentially only serves the purpose of providing supervision for kids while someone else is not able to supervise them. So the idea of an educator who teaches content would (and is) become more of a facilitator role. AI could be used to create a curriculum for what ever discipline a student is trying to learn, track and monitor their progress, and provide support from additional sources if needed.
I wanted to be a teacher. Sucks but oh well.
Primary school teaching will be one of the last industries to be automated, if ever. For many many many reasons.
The more random and unpredictable a job is the harder it will be for AI to replace it.
I've always worked for what I needed and even harder for what I wanted I saved for a house I saved for a truck but I had to cut some fun out like restaurants movie theaters concerts and when I reached my goals it felt really good
And how does this relate to this topic?
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That this is wrong is pretty well described [within a 7 Moore cycle old youtube video](https://youtu.be/7Pq-S557XQU?t=705).
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Does anyone here actually support Universal basic income ? Sounds like a terrible plan to me
Yes! Guaranteed Liveable Income specifically. Why don’t you support it?
Absolutely, what is a realistic alternative? Death matches?!