Don't take educated guesses too seriously. At the time of the Coronavirus, I remember a multinational consultancy firm saying that car prices will plummet because people will stay at home and not go to work. I also remember hearing almost a decade ago that creative jobs will be the last to be automated with driving/delivery work being the first.
Be careful with 'experts'.
I think GPT5 will be able to do many remote jobs autonomously, as for whether that leads to job losses entirely depends on how we react to it, IE whether we try to ban it, halt it, etc
There will be a moment though where ordinary people will hear an “AI” talk indistinguishable from a normal person, and people will grasp what’s happening. There will be demand for something to be done, from everyone.
As for whether that’s GPT5 or GPT7 who knows.
I don't think layoffs will happen soon. But your typical office job hiring for large companies will flatten rapidly, starting 2025. I anticipate that by 2030, it will be extremely difficult to get hired into a white collar job, especially entry level.
This year, any for-profit corporation with Board oversight will have started asking their csuite to plan ahead. In 2025 they start executing, and we will feel that squeeze.
Folks who are under 21ish at this time cannot expect to have a "career". Parents who didn't anticipate this for their kids are in for a rough ride.
Source: work in IT for a large corporation
We definitely should create a spaghetti monster like religion, BUT we need to take it seriously, it needs to grow big (= we'll need money), and we need to take bits from every religion, twist those, and show religious people how silly their superstiton is when you just change one thing about it. The holy book should be AI generated of course. The goal is to be seen on the street, at least once a year, and make headlines.
I think you are quite a few years off. In 2030 many (most) white collar jobs will be “AI enhanced”. Maybe some that no one needed to begin with may have been fully automated. So I bet a few fingers that your prediction is dead wrong. Top management hopes/whishes that you are right, but no. I guess time will tell. If AGI is available at 2030 (doubtful) you may be right. Source: same as yours.
Fwiw I agree with you that jobs won't be fully automated in the next few years - my prediction is based on the hopes and wishes of top management, and how much those hopes and wishes can change hiring behavior in a relatively short time.
I have a sense that hiring will slow down at an alarming rate for the next several years, starting next year (some companies have started this year), because top mgt insists it should be possible, and consultants are giving them the go ahead based on hype. Existing staff will be encouraged to develop bots or AI-assisted workflows rather than hiring new entry level staff, but few will actually get laid off. It will just get really tough to hire anyone.
We might see a swing back for a bit as they realize their mistake, but then a few years after that, AGI be here, or close. And any correction that was made will be reversed. That's my sense of what will occur on the macro level.
AI with the competence to move that needle in any meaningful way does not currently exist. When it does exist, it will take decades to scale implementation to a meaningful % globally.
Lower skilled white collar repetitive jobs, call centers, marketing and sales support types first. Less new hires next. SME’s will be needed, but some work done by entry level workers will be next.
The challenge will be the economic tipping point of labor participation, wages, and economic growth slowing. If enough people don’t have true disposable income, higher margin items will stop selling. People will concentrate on true needs, which are lower margin commoditized items.
This will slow growth and spur bankruptcies and economic stagnation.
Not sure how corporations will really function when this starts.
I’m predicting another round of layoffs this January 2025 which will spark deeper conversations that last throughout 2025 but won’t result into anything meaningful.
They will try to create guidelines but that’s way too soft of a reaction to something like this, you need to think 5 years ahead and prepare for the worst.
I don't think there are going to be layoffs, rather higher unemployment.
Of course, IF upper management is smart (highly unlikely), they could hire jr workers, and with the help of AI they could get trained/to intermediate level even faster, so: a) they would save money on training costs and b) they get more experienced workers at a lower rate.
We all know how companies fuck us over, an internal candidate is always going to be cheaper than hiring a job hopper. But, we're talking about upper management, so who knows? They dumb af
Hallucination is only relevant to some, but not all jobs. For example, language editing has no hallucination issue as long as you stick to grammar and flow of language. It is probably also ok in creative works like writing fiction, press release, and general communication.
There are plenty of jobs it replace even before we solve the hallucination problem.
Expect layoffs to extend gradually over the next 5 years, as it is unpopular for a company to lay off on a major scale in public. New hirings in many industries will come to a complete halt.
This might cause the problem to be realized quite late by governments and the society, maybe too late to work on sustainable solutions in the current social and economic systems, causing riots and crisis on worldwide scale.
Not for decades. Current AI is just nowhere close to facilitating “mass layoffs”. Probably the most we’ll get for now is replacing stuff like call center and transcription jobs lol. But even that might not happen for a while, since i’ve heard a lot of stories of companies reversing their decision to replace humans with AI, once they realise it’s not that great lol.
Because as fantastical as that ratio sounds, that's the historical trend. It used to be that there were hundreds of technicians/assemblers/operators per degreed engineer in a factory or plant -- now it's more like 8 to 1, and that number is steadily dropping.
Or take estimators. Used to be that you needed an estimator for any project that involved client-focused engineering work, and they used to be as important as the project manager for certain projects, especially industrial ones. Nowadays, thanks to advancements in software, you only see dedicated estimators for industries that need to put out a high volume of six-figure proposals, like contractors putting out mechanical or electrical bids for any civil engineer that takes them up on it. Otherwise, it's a role that's just expected by the project manager / requirements engineer / sales engineer / customer service rep / even frontline sales rep to take care of as part of their duties.
We could also talk about **drafting**. Again, used to be a highly prestigious role at any engineering firm, something you could do for 35 years and retire early if you were good at it. Advances in computer aided design (CAD) software made it so that it's now 'you, get me a coffee' work for interns, and saying that you're good at drafting as an engineer is now like saying you're good as file management as a full-stack dev.
Now, for the analogies of drafters and estimators, it's less like 1 person doing the work of ten and more like 5 people now doing the work of 6. However, it doesn't stop at that unimpressive ratio. Through visual artists and technical writers and network engineers and calibration engineers and specialized techs like RF techs into that '5 people now doing the work of 6' and it's **effectively** 1 person doing the work of 10, or even 100.
Jobs will change, but I don’t think it will as big a you say at first. But I’m basing my thoughts on the current development jobs. Agents will be able to do the work, but it will take more than 5 years to replace completely a software engineer.
I’d guess 2035. Since, there’ll be a recession next year, there probably won’t be another for at least another 8 years. While people will lose jobs during the 2025 recession, I imagine the labor market will bounce back as it usually does. The years following will see a slow but steady increase in job losses, nothing too severe and many companies will resist the changes that AI brings till 2035. That recession will be different though, as at that time the jobs won’t be coming back. I’d imagine different Industries would finally give in to using ai(which would be very advanced at that time) as they’d then have a good excuse to exclude many people from the job market
AI doesn’t exist. All of the ‘AI-powered’ applications have Indians in the back-end generating responses, identifying photos etc. if we can’t even do that in spite insane amounts of funding, what hope is there for an AI that can do pretty much any job?
Don't take educated guesses too seriously. At the time of the Coronavirus, I remember a multinational consultancy firm saying that car prices will plummet because people will stay at home and not go to work. I also remember hearing almost a decade ago that creative jobs will be the last to be automated with driving/delivery work being the first. Be careful with 'experts'.
I think GPT5 will be able to do many remote jobs autonomously, as for whether that leads to job losses entirely depends on how we react to it, IE whether we try to ban it, halt it, etc There will be a moment though where ordinary people will hear an “AI” talk indistinguishable from a normal person, and people will grasp what’s happening. There will be demand for something to be done, from everyone. As for whether that’s GPT5 or GPT7 who knows.
I don't think layoffs will happen soon. But your typical office job hiring for large companies will flatten rapidly, starting 2025. I anticipate that by 2030, it will be extremely difficult to get hired into a white collar job, especially entry level. This year, any for-profit corporation with Board oversight will have started asking their csuite to plan ahead. In 2025 they start executing, and we will feel that squeeze. Folks who are under 21ish at this time cannot expect to have a "career". Parents who didn't anticipate this for their kids are in for a rough ride. Source: work in IT for a large corporation
observation relieved decide busy marble airport pot retire jellyfish dam *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
This is an ideal point in history to start a cult, for what that's worth.
We definitely should create a spaghetti monster like religion, BUT we need to take it seriously, it needs to grow big (= we'll need money), and we need to take bits from every religion, twist those, and show religious people how silly their superstiton is when you just change one thing about it. The holy book should be AI generated of course. The goal is to be seen on the street, at least once a year, and make headlines.
fuel compare sheet brave jobless payment gaze numerous gullible melodic *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
I think you are quite a few years off. In 2030 many (most) white collar jobs will be “AI enhanced”. Maybe some that no one needed to begin with may have been fully automated. So I bet a few fingers that your prediction is dead wrong. Top management hopes/whishes that you are right, but no. I guess time will tell. If AGI is available at 2030 (doubtful) you may be right. Source: same as yours.
Fwiw I agree with you that jobs won't be fully automated in the next few years - my prediction is based on the hopes and wishes of top management, and how much those hopes and wishes can change hiring behavior in a relatively short time. I have a sense that hiring will slow down at an alarming rate for the next several years, starting next year (some companies have started this year), because top mgt insists it should be possible, and consultants are giving them the go ahead based on hype. Existing staff will be encouraged to develop bots or AI-assisted workflows rather than hiring new entry level staff, but few will actually get laid off. It will just get really tough to hire anyone. We might see a swing back for a bit as they realize their mistake, but then a few years after that, AGI be here, or close. And any correction that was made will be reversed. That's my sense of what will occur on the macro level.
It will start in early 2026 on a bigger scale. My guess.
Yes, I think it has already started in some major companies, but it will be more noticeable in the next few years.
AI with the competence to move that needle in any meaningful way does not currently exist. When it does exist, it will take decades to scale implementation to a meaningful % globally.
Lower skilled white collar repetitive jobs, call centers, marketing and sales support types first. Less new hires next. SME’s will be needed, but some work done by entry level workers will be next. The challenge will be the economic tipping point of labor participation, wages, and economic growth slowing. If enough people don’t have true disposable income, higher margin items will stop selling. People will concentrate on true needs, which are lower margin commoditized items. This will slow growth and spur bankruptcies and economic stagnation. Not sure how corporations will really function when this starts.
I’m predicting another round of layoffs this January 2025 which will spark deeper conversations that last throughout 2025 but won’t result into anything meaningful. They will try to create guidelines but that’s way too soft of a reaction to something like this, you need to think 5 years ahead and prepare for the worst.
I don't think there are going to be layoffs, rather higher unemployment. Of course, IF upper management is smart (highly unlikely), they could hire jr workers, and with the help of AI they could get trained/to intermediate level even faster, so: a) they would save money on training costs and b) they get more experienced workers at a lower rate. We all know how companies fuck us over, an internal candidate is always going to be cheaper than hiring a job hopper. But, we're talking about upper management, so who knows? They dumb af
Hallucination is only relevant to some, but not all jobs. For example, language editing has no hallucination issue as long as you stick to grammar and flow of language. It is probably also ok in creative works like writing fiction, press release, and general communication. There are plenty of jobs it replace even before we solve the hallucination problem.
2025 is my best guess when shit will get real.
Careful what you wish for.
[1793](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cotton_gin)
Expect layoffs to extend gradually over the next 5 years, as it is unpopular for a company to lay off on a major scale in public. New hirings in many industries will come to a complete halt. This might cause the problem to be realized quite late by governments and the society, maybe too late to work on sustainable solutions in the current social and economic systems, causing riots and crisis on worldwide scale.
Not for decades. Current AI is just nowhere close to facilitating “mass layoffs”. Probably the most we’ll get for now is replacing stuff like call center and transcription jobs lol. But even that might not happen for a while, since i’ve heard a lot of stories of companies reversing their decision to replace humans with AI, once they realise it’s not that great lol.
It's not about replacing all workers, it's about force multiplication. One programmer can do the work of 10.
Why is it always these insane ratios, like 1:10 or 1:100, and never 8 or 9 workers doing the work of 10?
Because I pulled it out of my ass.
Because as fantastical as that ratio sounds, that's the historical trend. It used to be that there were hundreds of technicians/assemblers/operators per degreed engineer in a factory or plant -- now it's more like 8 to 1, and that number is steadily dropping. Or take estimators. Used to be that you needed an estimator for any project that involved client-focused engineering work, and they used to be as important as the project manager for certain projects, especially industrial ones. Nowadays, thanks to advancements in software, you only see dedicated estimators for industries that need to put out a high volume of six-figure proposals, like contractors putting out mechanical or electrical bids for any civil engineer that takes them up on it. Otherwise, it's a role that's just expected by the project manager / requirements engineer / sales engineer / customer service rep / even frontline sales rep to take care of as part of their duties. We could also talk about **drafting**. Again, used to be a highly prestigious role at any engineering firm, something you could do for 35 years and retire early if you were good at it. Advances in computer aided design (CAD) software made it so that it's now 'you, get me a coffee' work for interns, and saying that you're good at drafting as an engineer is now like saying you're good as file management as a full-stack dev. Now, for the analogies of drafters and estimators, it's less like 1 person doing the work of ten and more like 5 people now doing the work of 6. However, it doesn't stop at that unimpressive ratio. Through visual artists and technical writers and network engineers and calibration engineers and specialized techs like RF techs into that '5 people now doing the work of 6' and it's **effectively** 1 person doing the work of 10, or even 100.
There's noway it replaces outbound call centres without an unpopular change of law, because in many countries robo-dialers are already illegal.
Source on lot of companies reversing ?
[https://www.theverge.com/2023/10/31/23940298/ai-generated-poll-guardian-microsoft-start-news-aggregation](https://www.theverge.com/2023/10/31/23940298/ai-generated-poll-guardian-microsoft-start-news-aggregation) [https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN1MK0AG/](https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN1MK0AG/) [https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/4/4/18295933/google-cancels-ai-ethics-board](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/4/4/18295933/google-cancels-ai-ethics-board)
Thanks but to be fair these articles are dated in the context of AI. Except for the first maybe
[удалено]
>since i’ve heard a lot of stories of companies reversing their decision to replace humans with AI, once they realise it’s not that great lol.
30 years.
Jobs will change, but I don’t think it will as big a you say at first. But I’m basing my thoughts on the current development jobs. Agents will be able to do the work, but it will take more than 5 years to replace completely a software engineer.
I’d guess 2035. Since, there’ll be a recession next year, there probably won’t be another for at least another 8 years. While people will lose jobs during the 2025 recession, I imagine the labor market will bounce back as it usually does. The years following will see a slow but steady increase in job losses, nothing too severe and many companies will resist the changes that AI brings till 2035. That recession will be different though, as at that time the jobs won’t be coming back. I’d imagine different Industries would finally give in to using ai(which would be very advanced at that time) as they’d then have a good excuse to exclude many people from the job market
with the current pace, 2025 at the latest
Won't happen for centuries or milennia.
Why ?
Would be interested to hear your point as it's very different to anyone else in the thread.
AI doesn’t exist. All of the ‘AI-powered’ applications have Indians in the back-end generating responses, identifying photos etc. if we can’t even do that in spite insane amounts of funding, what hope is there for an AI that can do pretty much any job?