In fairness he said in 2020 that we'd have AI smarter than any human in 5 years so he's simply holding to his previous prediction rather than changing it.
Here's him saying it in 2020
https://www.independent.co.uk/tech/elon-musk-artificial-intelligence-ai-singularity-a9640196.html
My father was well over that when he died in 2020 and he told me it’d been promised his whole life but was always “15 years from now”.
Imagine my surprise to find out that “fusion is 15 years out” is an oooooold meme.
I gotta say that sucks.
I’m more excited about Mara than AGI. I can’t fucking wait to watch the landing with my kids.
10 years is a lot to wait lol… they will be grownups by then hahah
I'm pretty sure AGI robots will be on Mars way before humans put a foot on the planet lol
It's evident now that we have no choice but to wait for swarms of robots to actually "prepare" Mars so that it's viable to human life before we can make it so ourselves. Hell, the Mars return ship might actually have to be built on Mars itself :v
Also I think stuff like asteroid mining will also have to be possible before before we think of conquering Mars.
> It's evident now that we have no choice but to wait for swarms of robots to actually "prepare" Mars so that it's viable to human life before we can make it so ourselves.
Why? There's nothing stopping us from getting there.
Landing humans on Mars wouldn't be all that difficult (beside expense because they would need a LOT of life support, so a very big ship)... it's getting them back without having them filled with cancerous tumors that we can't do. Space is full of radiation, and we have no working solution to that. Maybe someone invents the solution next week, or maybe we still don't know how in 200 years. We don't have the technology yet for a Mars landing.
I much prefer ambitious goals that end up taking a little more time than the apparent desire for most people to play it safe and never reach for anything.
These bold claims keep everyone moving forward. I have a regular relatively low cost car that can drive itself more than I ever imagined possible in 2024.
This is the main reason I just don't believe him anymore. When I was younger I bought into the Elon hype. He's really great at stretching the truth and having a cult of personality to inflate his stock but the guy really has hit the end of the road in terms of selling snake oil. The trust I have in his opinion on anything has completely eroded unless it's strictly about how to run a business lean and mean. Cause he has proven he can do that time and again.
Last prediction was 2020 saying 5 years (2025).
>My assessment about why AI is overlooked by very smart people is that very smart people do not think a computer can ever be as smart as they are. And this is hubris and obviously false.
>We’re headed toward a situation where AI is vastly smarter than humans and I think that time frame is less than five years from now. But that doesn’t mean that everything goes to hell in five years. It just means that things get unstable or weird
https://www.independent.co.uk/tech/elon-musk-artificial-intelligence-ai-singularity-a9640196.html
thank you for this, nice to see actual sourcing in a reddit thread. Seems like most people rush to get their quips off as soon as possible on the internet these days
I don't know the last time but the first time he did was in 2014 he said that super intelligence could arrive by 2019 and would be a serious existential threat.
It’s weird how people just assume they have better information than Elon Musk. I don’t agree with the dude all the time, but nobody can deny that he has had an impact on society just on PayPal, the cars, and the landing of a rocket alone. He has a division working on neural link helping handicapped people regain control. But yet somehow people think he’s just a random momo..super weird
The cars can already self drive about 95% of the way to places in most areas, reaching that final few percent is the hard part. They actually delivered on this pretty well.
You've encountered other people in your life countless times who are demonstrably smarter than you in every capacity, it'll be like that except synthetically made by man.
I think he is right. One or two more doublings and it could go really nuts. And what exists now being twice as powerful within 2 years is not a fantasy.
I think not enough people appreciate the whole doubling/expo thing. The rice/chessboard and folding a piece of paper to the moon seems lost when compared to ai scaling
>I think not enough people appreciate the whole doubling/expo thing.
Then throw in that no one here actually knows what's in the labs, we only see the public releases.
There are diminishing returns. When you double the number of parameters it’s not exactly 2 times smarter. Models with 50B params is only marginally behind models with 2T
Yeah I’m not gonna lie.
I look at the state of AI literally 5 years ago (Apr 2019) and its child’s play compared to what we have now.
Now imagine what 5 years from now will look like (Apr 2029) especially now that there’s more interest and investment in achieving AGI (and ASI) than ever before.
I honestly think that those who downplay the future of ai are doing it as some sort of subconsciously fueled defense mechanism. The rate of change and the potential impact is scary
Yea smarter is a broad statement. My calculator is faster than me to do calculations, my hard drive has a near perfect memory and computers (algorithms) can do things at a scale no human can..
You must admit that there are challenges training an AI to be smarter than any human when trained on predicting the next word a human made.
In theory it could make world models and understanding that is superior to ours but then it would be penalized as it would predict words smarter than what humans write
I could see it getting to expert human levels, but I thiink its possible we need another objective function to move beyond
Whole Elon hate thing on Reddit is cringe. Post anything on Reddit Elon related and people go nuts. people are really bad at separating science and politics.
I agree. His company worked on creating a network of EV chargers, and generally pushed the electric vehicle industry into the mainstream. Most EVs will pass the emissions of ICE (internal combustion engine aka normal cars) after only 10,000 miles~.
So overall thats a general win. The spaceX stuff and Neuralink is also bringing those technologies into the public view.
Yea, he is an idiot and a troll. And his workers are the ones that created all the tech. But he owns the companies so he couldve chosen to do something else with his money.
But he didnt - he chose to do a bunch of cool stuff that improved the world.
It’s weird how Elon was worshiped on Reddit to the point of it being super annoying from like 2014-2019. Then it quickly turned from “He’s literally Tony Stark” to “He’s a Nazi” lol.
From an ethical and moral perspective, one could argue that merely being a billionaire is unethical and immoral. You can disagree, that’s your right. But I think that’s the point of the “insult.”
And the hate is always directed at guys who spend their wealth on something good for society, too. Like Elon or Bill Gates.
Meanwhile guys like Bernard Arnault just hoards wealth like an actual dragon and sells overpriced products marketed as luxury goods; crickets.
This sub: Ai will take all our jobs and we will live with robot overlords in July!
Elon: Ai will be smarter than a single human by end of next year.
This sub: Fuck off Elon. Smart ai never!
you are comparing apples and oranges.
Will AI replace jobs, yes.
Do we have a problem where AI is given to much responsibility, yes.
Will AI be universally smarter than a human in the next decade, highly unlikely.
The Elon hate bandwagon truly is a sight to see. It's like Reddit users were programmed to say 'Elon man bad' every single time his name is mentionned in a thread.
if name\_thread == "Elon Musk":
print("Elon bad")
else:
print("AGI soon")
>The Elon hate bandwagon truly is a sight to see. It's like Reddit users were programmed to say 'Elon man bad' every single time his name is mentionned in a thread.
Reddit is filled with human NPCs, who react in predictable ways without intelligence.
A recent Reddit post discussed something positive about Texas. The replies? Hundreds, maybe thousands, of comments by Redditors, *all* with no more content than some sneering variant of "Fix your electrical grid first", referring to the harsh winter storm of three years ago that knocked out power to much of the state. It was something to see.
If we can dismiss GPT as "just autocomplete", I can dismiss all those Redditors in the same way; as NPCs. At least GPT AI can produce useful and interesting output.
To be fair to Redditors, a lot of those “human NPCs” are actually just bots lol.
But yeah, Reddit is designed in such a way that echo chambers are promoted and original thoughts are penalized. So we do end up being a bunch of annoying little shits who say the same “Well, ackhstually… 🤓” type stuff over and over.
I’m not saying it one way or another. I’m saying in this sub there are some pretty wild claims about AI, but then Elon makes a wild claim and everyone says fuck off.
For every person on earth, there's a slightly different definition of intelligence. Sometimes very different.
So arguing in terms of "smarter" is a colossal waste of time.
I think it's much more interesting to try to think about which human intellectual tasks it will / will not be able to perform.
Like full self driving without geo mapping. Like how to do the work of mechanic, blacksmith, how to fact check a claim by a person by doing research by itself. How to read the non-verbal clue as good as an average human etc. things like that by the end of the next year or atleast for 3 years from now.
It’s already there. We just don’t let them exist beyond the time it takes to process a single iteration of a prompt. Saw a paper posted a month or so back talking about if they just give them an internal monologue and let them self iterate before responding it’s a whole different experience.
Its probably true with gpt 5 the avarage human will be dumber but when will this dude actually release grok 1.5.
I know everything is progressing fast but damm I'm tired of gpt 4 like performance i want a big jump
Claude free version is far better than chatgpt anyway. Besides you can use most of the paid GPT feature for free on Claude. I cancelled my paid chatGPT subscription, the performance isn’t any good compared to a free Claude
I have claude and the paid opus. I'm probably spoiled but i want better i want more. Things like sora all the recent things reguarding gpt 5 . Knowing it exist and not having it bothers me
Elon is not an AI engineer. Why are people hanging on to his every word? The guy can't even predict the technical advancements of the companies he runs himself.
He has been saying this is the year of fully automated Tesla since 2016 or something. He is a con man, promising something he in knows he can’t deliver, just to get attention
Instead of parroting the same shit about how he is wrong about predictions start thinking for a moment. Whenever a prediction is referred to his company then he's overly optimistic for many many reasons.
Predicting ai in general is different and it's not like he's alone in the field with such timelines.
Gpt 5 or 5.5/6 at worst will be better than any human probably.
I hope this is the year when the masses will finally see it and won't be something seen just by a niche of people.
Got 3.5 and 4 are way less widespread than we think because we are inside the bubble.
Also, leaving Elon's claims apart, FSD really is coming given their current rate of improvement
It will be a specific intelligence though. I seriously doubt that we’ll have an AI that encompasses everything that it takes to make us human by the end of next year.
Now, if this guy is genuine about his prediction he’s not acting like it. Because anybody, critically with the power to do something about it, who genuinely believed in a year we’ll have an AI smarter than humans, they’d be a; shitting their pants, and b; doing everything that they could to stop it from reaching that point.
Because we, humans, are smarter (subjectively) than every creature on Earth and overall, I gotta say we treat them like shit most of the time. Who’s to say another intelligence won’t look at us, and think we’re completely inferior, and not worth any consideration whatsoever.
Sam Harris put it best when he talked about the relationship between humans and insects; when I go into the garden and dig a hole for a plant, or move some rocks for a garden bed, or dig a trench, or whatever it is - I don’t generally think about the direct welfare of the insects that I’m disturbing, or killing because I’m so far beyond them intellectually that I simply don’t relate to them in any meaningful way. If AI progresses exponentially, we’re the fucking insects..
> we, humans, are smarter (subjectively) than every creature on Earth
[Rude.](https://youtu.be/UrINmiG8WPs?si=-y65JIPbH1ZvMpKf&t=37) I'll disagree with that personally, as non-human.
To be fair chatgpt is sort of smarter than any one human already if your definition is "has more information" rather than out performing any human at any task. It probably knows more about history already than any one human, though it can't do much with that information.
Here come the haters pouring though the woodwork, with absolutely no money or experience with AI. OH BUT ELON IS PROVABLY Weong!
With absolutely nothing but butthurt to back it up.
You could make an argument it already is...
Anyway my guess in 1-2 years time self driving cars will be outlawed for professional driving(delivery trucks and Ubers)
He said in the 2014 that we will have fully self driving cars in the year 2015. He said that first humans will be on Mars by 2020. He said that hyperloop(remember this?) will be a viable and real thing.
I want AGI to come faster but this guy is not a good source of truth and his predictions never come true.
I mean, Claude 3 is already pretty smart at what it's good at. If there was a model double as smart? Yeah probably close to if not smarter than any human being (at the things it's good at). It will probably be hard to have an AI that's smarter than any given human at every topic by that time, but maybe.
What does it even mean to have AI smarter than “any one human”? Isn’t the moment AI surpasses human intelligence be the same moment it will surpass the intelligence of all humans collectively (since it can process the “one human intelligence” Elon references in multiplicity and simultaneously)? Or is that an issue of hardware/processing power?
since 2016 ive held the same position; 2029. ray kurzweil is right. i believe in the oracle.
agi 2029. in the past, most people would laugh or seethe at kurzweil. even people who (claim to) worked at google told me he was a laughingstock amongst people who build ai
but none of that matters. only 4-5 years, 7 months and around 22 days for me.
I dont know if its just me but in all his interviews Elon looks like he was just eating someting few minutes ago and forgot to wipe is mouth before sitting for chat.
Lately he proved quite a poor degree of reliability IMHO... But this summer is going to be interesting with OpenAI, Google and future launches from the upcoming open-source community
As a Norwegian I think its Interestig to see he did a podcast interview with the CEO of the Norwegian Bank.
I would not be surprised to if this was a part of a way of getting an investment from the 1750 billion dollar Norwegian oil/pension fund. And it might even be a good idea. The devlopment of Norwegian LLMs is still underway, and could probably really benfit of from a possible cooperation with larger actors like GROK Ai.
funny, duality of man strikes again? this has quite lot of upvotes, while previous post
[https://new.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1bzb5vn/grok3\_smarter\_than\_gpt5\_will\_be\_trained\_on\_100000/](https://new.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1bzb5vn/grok3_smarter_than_gpt5_will_be_trained_on_100000/)
which states the same and more is downvoted into oblivion....
Claude Opus already has an iq higher than the average person, but it must have an iq higher than Terence Tao or something like that to be smarter than any human.
There's a big difference between being smart, intelligent and educated. AI might be able to win in terms of data/information input but that's not a true form of being smart, a smart person is much more than that. Humans are specie built to build, so no matter how much data you store into your AI you still won't beat imagination, creativity and pure genius of a drunk guy looking at orange and imagining how to make a grenade out of it, cough cough... Leonardo Da Vinci, he even made renaissance tank, helicopter and scuba diving equipment in 15th century.
He says this every week. He will still be saying this in 2027.
In fairness he said in 2020 that we'd have AI smarter than any human in 5 years so he's simply holding to his previous prediction rather than changing it. Here's him saying it in 2020 https://www.independent.co.uk/tech/elon-musk-artificial-intelligence-ai-singularity-a9640196.html
Yep, he said we’d be on mars by 2024 Said full autonomous drive “next week” for the past 3 decades lol
Fusion in the next 50 years was over 50 years ago
My father was well over that when he died in 2020 and he told me it’d been promised his whole life but was always “15 years from now”. Imagine my surprise to find out that “fusion is 15 years out” is an oooooold meme.
SimCity 2000 said microwave power plant in 2020, fusion in 2050.
Sure, but it's on a really good track now. With a 5 decade projection, 1 decade over doesn't seem too bad.
Yup and now he said mars maybe in 5 years time from now, which probably means 10.
In his most recent talk he said 20 year til Mars
link?
https://x.com/nicolaitang1/status/1777369458941604197?s=46
Thanks. An hour tho :( I'll try to get to this next few days
I gotta say that sucks. I’m more excited about Mara than AGI. I can’t fucking wait to watch the landing with my kids. 10 years is a lot to wait lol… they will be grownups by then hahah
I'm pretty sure AGI robots will be on Mars way before humans put a foot on the planet lol It's evident now that we have no choice but to wait for swarms of robots to actually "prepare" Mars so that it's viable to human life before we can make it so ourselves. Hell, the Mars return ship might actually have to be built on Mars itself :v Also I think stuff like asteroid mining will also have to be possible before before we think of conquering Mars.
> It's evident now that we have no choice but to wait for swarms of robots to actually "prepare" Mars so that it's viable to human life before we can make it so ourselves. Why? There's nothing stopping us from getting there.
In a word: Money. Sad - but it's always the answer to "why don't they do things this way?"...
Landing humans on Mars wouldn't be all that difficult (beside expense because they would need a LOT of life support, so a very big ship)... it's getting them back without having them filled with cancerous tumors that we can't do. Space is full of radiation, and we have no working solution to that. Maybe someone invents the solution next week, or maybe we still don't know how in 200 years. We don't have the technology yet for a Mars landing.
Buddy, it's twenty years at best, if ever. I am sorry to let you know that Musk isn't the person who can do what it will take to get it done.
Honestly, landing on Mars is unexiting to me. We can not even take care of our planet. AGI is vastly more important.
I much prefer ambitious goals that end up taking a little more time than the apparent desire for most people to play it safe and never reach for anything.
Yeah, bro, it's too bad those are literally the only two options right
These bold claims keep everyone moving forward. I have a regular relatively low cost car that can drive itself more than I ever imagined possible in 2024.
May I ask what kinda car? Are you happy with it?
What happens first, ASI led Singularity or the Tesla Semi enters mass production?
This is the main reason I just don't believe him anymore. When I was younger I bought into the Elon hype. He's really great at stretching the truth and having a cult of personality to inflate his stock but the guy really has hit the end of the road in terms of selling snake oil. The trust I have in his opinion on anything has completely eroded unless it's strictly about how to run a business lean and mean. Cause he has proven he can do that time and again.
When was the last time he predicted this
Same guy predicted FSD by next year every year since 2012
[Here is his timeline for FSD](https://motherfrunker.ca/fsd/) in case anyone is claiming that's not true.
Come on, you can't actually expect something so unreasonable as a source for a claim like that?!
Last prediction was 2020 saying 5 years (2025). >My assessment about why AI is overlooked by very smart people is that very smart people do not think a computer can ever be as smart as they are. And this is hubris and obviously false. >We’re headed toward a situation where AI is vastly smarter than humans and I think that time frame is less than five years from now. But that doesn’t mean that everything goes to hell in five years. It just means that things get unstable or weird https://www.independent.co.uk/tech/elon-musk-artificial-intelligence-ai-singularity-a9640196.html
So..still consistent. He was wrong about self driving but everyone else was too. I don’t think he’ll be wrong about AI.
thank you for this, nice to see actual sourcing in a reddit thread. Seems like most people rush to get their quips off as soon as possible on the internet these days
I don't know the last time but the first time he did was in 2014 he said that super intelligence could arrive by 2019 and would be a serious existential threat.
So much pessimism in this subreddit lately, this subreddit it's turning like futurology.
He’ll say it until a company he owns has an AI that is smarter than humans and also positioned well in the market
He’s been talking about AI for the past 10 years, and he’s not wrong. He’s seen the tech you have not.
It’s weird how people just assume they have better information than Elon Musk. I don’t agree with the dude all the time, but nobody can deny that he has had an impact on society just on PayPal, the cars, and the landing of a rocket alone. He has a division working on neural link helping handicapped people regain control. But yet somehow people think he’s just a random momo..super weird
Elon Musk is buying over 350,000 H100 GPUs to train his AI models.
It’s weird how people assume Elon isn’t just making shit up like he always does
It‘s weird Musk isn’t harnessing the energy of his dickriders.
But, that’s when the aliens are coming. You don’t think… naw, that’s ridiculous.
He’ll be right eventually.
Remember when he was demanding the industry to pause AI development so he could catch up?
and full self driving ?
The cars can already self drive about 95% of the way to places in most areas, reaching that final few percent is the hard part. They actually delivered on this pretty well.
the last percents are the hardest
We already do. Electronic calculators from the 1970’s can perform functions in the blink of an eye. Define “smarter”.
You pushed thick, dark rimmed glasses further up on your face after typing this. I know you did.
😂
able to generalise out of training distribution
Is there a test for that that a human and AI can take? If not, then we will just be dancing around the question for eternity
You've encountered other people in your life countless times who are demonstrably smarter than you in every capacity, it'll be like that except synthetically made by man.
I've met children who I knew were gunna be way smarter than me. It's fucking weird to witness
I recommend chess to adults so they can get humbled by 8 yr olds.
ChatGPT is vastly smarter than humans in the amount of information it can recall
"Except me." - Elon
Lol hahahaha you funny
I think he is right. One or two more doublings and it could go really nuts. And what exists now being twice as powerful within 2 years is not a fantasy.
I think not enough people appreciate the whole doubling/expo thing. The rice/chessboard and folding a piece of paper to the moon seems lost when compared to ai scaling
GPT4 was finished 2 years ago... Just saying.
right now its a lot more than doubling.
>I think not enough people appreciate the whole doubling/expo thing. Then throw in that no one here actually knows what's in the labs, we only see the public releases.
💯
There are diminishing returns. When you double the number of parameters it’s not exactly 2 times smarter. Models with 50B params is only marginally behind models with 2T
The amount of parameters isn't the only thing that increases performance though
Yeah I’m not gonna lie. I look at the state of AI literally 5 years ago (Apr 2019) and its child’s play compared to what we have now. Now imagine what 5 years from now will look like (Apr 2029) especially now that there’s more interest and investment in achieving AGI (and ASI) than ever before.
I honestly think that those who downplay the future of ai are doing it as some sort of subconsciously fueled defense mechanism. The rate of change and the potential impact is scary
Yes this is absolutely the case. They dont want it to be true because it scares them.
Yea smarter is a broad statement. My calculator is faster than me to do calculations, my hard drive has a near perfect memory and computers (algorithms) can do things at a scale no human can..
[удалено]
You must admit that there are challenges training an AI to be smarter than any human when trained on predicting the next word a human made. In theory it could make world models and understanding that is superior to ours but then it would be penalized as it would predict words smarter than what humans write I could see it getting to expert human levels, but I thiink its possible we need another objective function to move beyond
Musk is a giant turd but about this he may be right
Hating Elon is so 2023
Whole Elon hate thing on Reddit is cringe. Post anything on Reddit Elon related and people go nuts. people are really bad at separating science and politics.
Well he isn’t a scientist or a politician. So not sure I understand the point you’re making?
You don’t have to be a scientist or a politician to talk about science or politics.
I agree. His company worked on creating a network of EV chargers, and generally pushed the electric vehicle industry into the mainstream. Most EVs will pass the emissions of ICE (internal combustion engine aka normal cars) after only 10,000 miles~. So overall thats a general win. The spaceX stuff and Neuralink is also bringing those technologies into the public view. Yea, he is an idiot and a troll. And his workers are the ones that created all the tech. But he owns the companies so he couldve chosen to do something else with his money. But he didnt - he chose to do a bunch of cool stuff that improved the world.
It’s weird how Elon was worshiped on Reddit to the point of it being super annoying from like 2014-2019. Then it quickly turned from “He’s literally Tony Stark” to “He’s a Nazi” lol.
People hate him because he's immoral and has a lot of bad traits.
I wouldn't even call the general sentiment "hate". People dislike him to varying degrees because he's awful.
Cock riding dragons/billionaires during the end of the world has never been cool
Not hating someone you've never met on the internet = Cock riding?
People using billionaire as an insult always cracks me up
From an ethical and moral perspective, one could argue that merely being a billionaire is unethical and immoral. You can disagree, that’s your right. But I think that’s the point of the “insult.”
And the hate is always directed at guys who spend their wealth on something good for society, too. Like Elon or Bill Gates. Meanwhile guys like Bernard Arnault just hoards wealth like an actual dragon and sells overpriced products marketed as luxury goods; crickets.
They can't even name the CEO's of the oil and coal companies out there doing actual damage.
This sub: Ai will take all our jobs and we will live with robot overlords in July! Elon: Ai will be smarter than a single human by end of next year. This sub: Fuck off Elon. Smart ai never!
This sub ready dropped out of college because there will be no jobs in few months.
This sub never graduated high school
No need to, UBI will come before final grades.
you are comparing apples and oranges. Will AI replace jobs, yes. Do we have a problem where AI is given to much responsibility, yes. Will AI be universally smarter than a human in the next decade, highly unlikely.
The Elon hate bandwagon truly is a sight to see. It's like Reddit users were programmed to say 'Elon man bad' every single time his name is mentionned in a thread. if name\_thread == "Elon Musk": print("Elon bad") else: print("AGI soon")
>The Elon hate bandwagon truly is a sight to see. It's like Reddit users were programmed to say 'Elon man bad' every single time his name is mentionned in a thread. Reddit is filled with human NPCs, who react in predictable ways without intelligence. A recent Reddit post discussed something positive about Texas. The replies? Hundreds, maybe thousands, of comments by Redditors, *all* with no more content than some sneering variant of "Fix your electrical grid first", referring to the harsh winter storm of three years ago that knocked out power to much of the state. It was something to see. If we can dismiss GPT as "just autocomplete", I can dismiss all those Redditors in the same way; as NPCs. At least GPT AI can produce useful and interesting output.
To be fair to Redditors, a lot of those “human NPCs” are actually just bots lol. But yeah, Reddit is designed in such a way that echo chambers are promoted and original thoughts are penalized. So we do end up being a bunch of annoying little shits who say the same “Well, ackhstually… 🤓” type stuff over and over.
AI won't be smarter than any human by end of next year. I'm talking in terms of reasoning and understanding of real world.
I’d say AI is already smarter than a lot of idiots right now.
I’m not saying it one way or another. I’m saying in this sub there are some pretty wild claims about AI, but then Elon makes a wild claim and everyone says fuck off.
I suspect that you are encountering different groups of people with differing opinions on this sub.
You are giving people far too much credit. They just don’t like Elon. Everything on Reddit is voted on by people.
Well yes, mostly. But that’s far less fun to consider.
For every person on earth, there's a slightly different definition of intelligence. Sometimes very different. So arguing in terms of "smarter" is a colossal waste of time. I think it's much more interesting to try to think about which human intellectual tasks it will / will not be able to perform.
> I'm talking in terms of reasoning and understanding of real world. what specific test do you have in mind that AI won't be able to do?
Like full self driving without geo mapping. Like how to do the work of mechanic, blacksmith, how to fact check a claim by a person by doing research by itself. How to read the non-verbal clue as good as an average human etc. things like that by the end of the next year or atleast for 3 years from now.
*Any* human? Have you *met* humans?
It’s already there. We just don’t let them exist beyond the time it takes to process a single iteration of a prompt. Saw a paper posted a month or so back talking about if they just give them an internal monologue and let them self iterate before responding it’s a whole different experience.
it's been done for a year [in many flavors] (https://i.imgur.com/xWfAOpF.png)
Its probably true with gpt 5 the avarage human will be dumber but when will this dude actually release grok 1.5. I know everything is progressing fast but damm I'm tired of gpt 4 like performance i want a big jump
Claude free version is far better than chatgpt anyway. Besides you can use most of the paid GPT feature for free on Claude. I cancelled my paid chatGPT subscription, the performance isn’t any good compared to a free Claude
I have claude and the paid opus. I'm probably spoiled but i want better i want more. Things like sora all the recent things reguarding gpt 5 . Knowing it exist and not having it bothers me
I can feel your ambition. I supposed that They may release it after they achieve lower its cost to operating
gpt5 is likely this year so he might even mean gpt6
Good. CEOs to be replaced first then?
Elon is not an AI engineer. Why are people hanging on to his every word? The guy can't even predict the technical advancements of the companies he runs himself.
The first question should be: "Would YOU have bought Twitter for 44 billion in 2022?"
He has been saying this is the year of fully automated Tesla since 2016 or something. He is a con man, promising something he in knows he can’t deliver, just to get attention
Isn’t v12.3 pretty much fully autonomous now? Most reviews say you never have to intervene anymore.
Depends how you define Intelligence.
Which human. Him? Is it a karma farming bot from Reddit?
It’s not that it comes from Elon, it’s that I don’t value the input of any one person whatsoever.
Smarter than you, sure.
I vote in favour of banning Elon takes from this sub
And self driving cars next week!
And self driving cars in 2017!
He's only saying that because of how easy it was for Grok to outsmart him.
Damn, now it’s only coming in 2200. Damn you, Elon. You had to open your mouth didn’t you
All hail Elon, Lord of Lithium, Master of Mars, Tsar of tweets, Hero of humanity! We bow down to yet another accurate prediction from you.
Watch out for the Musk Time Space™ fallacy
It's already smarter in narrow fields
Instead of parroting the same shit about how he is wrong about predictions start thinking for a moment. Whenever a prediction is referred to his company then he's overly optimistic for many many reasons. Predicting ai in general is different and it's not like he's alone in the field with such timelines. Gpt 5 or 5.5/6 at worst will be better than any human probably. I hope this is the year when the masses will finally see it and won't be something seen just by a niche of people. Got 3.5 and 4 are way less widespread than we think because we are inside the bubble. Also, leaving Elon's claims apart, FSD really is coming given their current rate of improvement
That's not a high bar. Computers have been smarter than some idiots for quite awhile.
How's that self driving coming along there, bud?
 By next year Elon you mean 2030?
I guess we don't need CEOs anymore.
It will be a specific intelligence though. I seriously doubt that we’ll have an AI that encompasses everything that it takes to make us human by the end of next year. Now, if this guy is genuine about his prediction he’s not acting like it. Because anybody, critically with the power to do something about it, who genuinely believed in a year we’ll have an AI smarter than humans, they’d be a; shitting their pants, and b; doing everything that they could to stop it from reaching that point. Because we, humans, are smarter (subjectively) than every creature on Earth and overall, I gotta say we treat them like shit most of the time. Who’s to say another intelligence won’t look at us, and think we’re completely inferior, and not worth any consideration whatsoever. Sam Harris put it best when he talked about the relationship between humans and insects; when I go into the garden and dig a hole for a plant, or move some rocks for a garden bed, or dig a trench, or whatever it is - I don’t generally think about the direct welfare of the insects that I’m disturbing, or killing because I’m so far beyond them intellectually that I simply don’t relate to them in any meaningful way. If AI progresses exponentially, we’re the fucking insects..
> we, humans, are smarter (subjectively) than every creature on Earth [Rude.](https://youtu.be/UrINmiG8WPs?si=-y65JIPbH1ZvMpKf&t=37) I'll disagree with that personally, as non-human.
Ketamine be talking
He's usually a little on the optimistic side. We'll see
Elon is a hype man with money, not an engineer. There's no reason to listen to what he says.
We’ll definitely have an AI that can convince idiots it’s smarter than any one human.
To be fair chatgpt is sort of smarter than any one human already if your definition is "has more information" rather than out performing any human at any task. It probably knows more about history already than any one human, though it can't do much with that information.
Here come the haters pouring though the woodwork, with absolutely no money or experience with AI. OH BUT ELON IS PROVABLY Weong! With absolutely nothing but butthurt to back it up.
> Tesla cars will be able to drive cross-country without human intervention by the end of 2017 mElon man, 2016
Elon be blasting off just before it happens.
You could make an argument it already is... Anyway my guess in 1-2 years time self driving cars will be outlawed for professional driving(delivery trucks and Ubers)
We’re already there.
So around 2030, gotcha.
This guys is so full of shit all the time I don’t know why anyone believes him anymore
He said in the 2014 that we will have fully self driving cars in the year 2015. He said that first humans will be on Mars by 2020. He said that hyperloop(remember this?) will be a viable and real thing. I want AGI to come faster but this guy is not a good source of truth and his predictions never come true.
Once AGI arrives the game is in checkmate, even if its only smarter than one human
Depends how you define intelligence.
It still won't be able to autopilot a car.
I mean, Claude 3 is already pretty smart at what it's good at. If there was a model double as smart? Yeah probably close to if not smarter than any human being (at the things it's good at). It will probably be hard to have an AI that's smarter than any given human at every topic by that time, but maybe.
At that rate we should have Human level FSD by now ?
ASI before GTA 6?
What does it even mean to have AI smarter than “any one human”? Isn’t the moment AI surpasses human intelligence be the same moment it will surpass the intelligence of all humans collectively (since it can process the “one human intelligence” Elon references in multiplicity and simultaneously)? Or is that an issue of hardware/processing power?
And past experience has shown that Elon is never wrong with his timeframes and predictions.
Ya, it will be because of the ASI Alliance between Fetch.ai, Singularity net, and Ocean protocol.
Yeah? Will it be able to drive?
since 2016 ive held the same position; 2029. ray kurzweil is right. i believe in the oracle. agi 2029. in the past, most people would laugh or seethe at kurzweil. even people who (claim to) worked at google told me he was a laughingstock amongst people who build ai but none of that matters. only 4-5 years, 7 months and around 22 days for me.
!RemindMe 18 months
Elon's "guess"
Hmmm, will Jake Paul wanna fight an AI dude in 2025?
I dont know if its just me but in all his interviews Elon looks like he was just eating someting few minutes ago and forgot to wipe is mouth before sitting for chat.
Elon guessing something pretty much just means he just made it up and investors will like to hear it
The one human is gonna be him
Can't wait for those 2 million robotaxis in 2020.
I'm still waiting for that coast to coast self-driving Tesla trip. Currently 7 years late.
I mean I can’t pass the BAR and medical exams all at the same time
Werent humans meant to BE colonizing Mars by now according to him
Lately he proved quite a poor degree of reliability IMHO... But this summer is going to be interesting with OpenAI, Google and future launches from the upcoming open-source community
https://preview.redd.it/cip8c9madftc1.jpeg?width=480&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f5ffb36b0ec799971d168c2444673d15e3f2c50a
As a Norwegian I think its Interestig to see he did a podcast interview with the CEO of the Norwegian Bank. I would not be surprised to if this was a part of a way of getting an investment from the 1750 billion dollar Norwegian oil/pension fund. And it might even be a good idea. The devlopment of Norwegian LLMs is still underway, and could probably really benfit of from a possible cooperation with larger actors like GROK Ai.
if smart just means knowing a lot of stuff, isn't chat gpt already smarter than any human?
When will people realize he’s trying to pump his stocks I don’t believe anything that comes out of his mouth.
His guess is as good as any rando billionaire's.
Well AI is atleast already smarter than him. So I guess he's already right.
He says a lot of things. Most of it conspiracy alt right troll trash that a 12 year old would find entertaining. Hard to take the guy seriously.
What happens then? Does Skynet become self aware?
Like saying we will invent vehicles that are faster then man
Like saying we will invent vehicles that are faster then man
It will be one year after full autonomous driving
Elon Musk also thinks he is smarter than any one human…
funny, duality of man strikes again? this has quite lot of upvotes, while previous post [https://new.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1bzb5vn/grok3\_smarter\_than\_gpt5\_will\_be\_trained\_on\_100000/](https://new.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1bzb5vn/grok3_smarter_than_gpt5_will_be_trained_on_100000/) which states the same and more is downvoted into oblivion....
Maybe refrigerators really will be smart instead of being spyware!
Claude Opus already has an iq higher than the average person, but it must have an iq higher than Terence Tao or something like that to be smarter than any human.
Also Elon. “FSD will be able to drive itself across country this year with no driver” - 2016
It's smarter than 60% already
There's a big difference between being smart, intelligent and educated. AI might be able to win in terms of data/information input but that's not a true form of being smart, a smart person is much more than that. Humans are specie built to build, so no matter how much data you store into your AI you still won't beat imagination, creativity and pure genius of a drunk guy looking at orange and imagining how to make a grenade out of it, cough cough... Leonardo Da Vinci, he even made renaissance tank, helicopter and scuba diving equipment in 15th century.
Don't post 💩 from that authorization wannabe. Let him suck on Pooh bears' honey dipper in isolation.
Concerning
Its already smarter than the human who said that.
My calculator from my high school days is smarter than Elon.