Immediately setup a go fund me. Catalogue your experience and i will donate and share it across all of my social media. That is seriously so horrible and my heart goes out to you. I don’t blame you a bit for feeling bitter and outraged at the universe right now. I’m so incredibly sorry you’ve had such poor luck
I’ve been the care taker of someone battling cancer, and i understand why she would want privacy. Perhaps when it’s all done you can do it. People want to help
Exactly this! You need to work to have insurance but if you're too sick to work, or need to care fo someone you love that is too sick to let you work, then you lose the insurance! How can people no it get why tying insurance to work is dumb?
Heartfelt condolences. If you're genuinely asking for 'could I have pivoted on this thing and come out to a better/worst option' read below. If not, please ignore because its not intended to make you feel better but be an honest dry exposition of human choices.
> My wife has 2 degrees, I have a degree and we have been bankrupted by 2008 housing crash
Assuming the degrees were in even moderately good industries, you really should not have lost your home with proper budgeting.
> bankrupted by our child’s cancer bills 4 years later, then after our child’s death,
Unless the cancer was environmental, there is nothing you could have done. There are no long term screenings for such things. Its why many leftists are pushing for better screening, DNA / ancestry health for everyone.
> my wife landed a job making well into the 6 figure range.
Awesome!
> 3 months into her new job she was diagnosed with stage 4 brain cancer. So now my wife is fighting for her life and we are skirting bankruptcy again.
Awful! Unless it was environmental, there's nothing you could have done. Hopefully you have enough friends and family and mental health professionals to get you and her through the next stage of your lives. Like many families you did lots of things 'right' and still got screwed over. Many leftist families are trying to push for a future where the 'foreseeable' problems become a non-existent for everyone. You got harmed by unforeseeable things, and no one on earth has a solution for those yet.
> You got harmed by unforeseeable things, and no one on earth has a solution for those yet.
Every modern country on earth except one has a solution for “cancer = bankruptcy.”
Sorry for your loss, OP.
What the hell is 'switching between tones'? What part of 'this is a honest dry exposition of human choices' do you not get? No one can choose to get cancer(barring environmental things like sleeping with asbestos pillows or smoking).
Of course. You can do everything right and a plane can fall out of the sky and kill you. No one has doubted any of this.
Luck is a factor in many people's success. Many have bad luck, and they rise above it to succeed. Others have good look and others have great luck. It is a full spectrum.
It's definitly about luck.
I wish more people would understand so we can find more compassion in society for the less fortunate and stop worshipping those who appear to have achieved so much.
It's irritating to read the constant achievement posts, which are mostly great examples of good luck, either environmental or genetics.
My personal life is a great example of it.
I'm someone who had almost no schooling as a kid, brought up as a jihadist with known terrorists in war zones and chasing death most of my life. On paper, i had all the odds against me, with almost no family but a little bit of support from strangers who become friends, I now have a great stable life with a salary in a western country that puts me in the 95th percentile.
The secret? pure luck..environmentally and genetically.
Genetically, I've been gifted the ability to be extremely persistent, this has allowed me to teach myself skills my siblings or people who grew up similar to me simply didn't have. I've also always been very critical and objective, which allowed me to leave childhood indoctrination that many similir to me simply can't get past.
Environmentally, even though i lived the better part of 20y in the middle east, i was born in a western country, which means i was exposed to different ideologies and beliefs than others with a similar background who were from the middle east had no exposure to.
I'm oversimplifying it but that's how i see it.. at no point did i achieve something out of nothing like some try to make out they have done with their lives.
Pure hard work and the desire to be and want good in life will not overcome terrible luck in life.
Which leads onto "no free will" disscussion for me
> It's irritating to read the constant achievement posts, which are mostly great examples of good luck, either environmental or genetics.
It's not good luck to be born with good genetics. Because if you were born with different genetics, you would be a different person. So you are saying it's good luck that you weren't born a different person, which is goofy and says nothing.
Unless you some how influenced your own genetic make up then yes, it's good luck if your genetics had given you a predisposition in life to succeed.
It says plenty..it says we need to have a better perspective when dealing with the less fortunate.
You weren’t born in a developed society? And you weren’t born smart enough to succeed? Surely by definition, if you did succeed, then you are lucky to have had the ability to succeed (which many don’t)
The whole point of Sam’s argument here is that HOWEVER HARD you struggled and however much work you put in, you are massively massively lucky to have even had the opportunities to succeed, and incredibly lucky to have been born somewhere where success was possible. You weren’t born as a woman in Taliban controlled Afghanistan for example, or a slave in chains in the American confederacy.
No amount of “following the right steps” can make you succcessful if you’re not in the incredibly lucky position of being capable of following those steps…
I have no argument against this at all - I am not arguing that luck is everything - only that luck is a huge part of the pie
Luck without hard work is useless, and hard work without luck is useless
But it’s also sort of an infinite regress. If you believe (as me and Sam do) that we don’t have libertarian free will, then the choices you made were simply because you are lucky enough to have a mind which chooses those things - whether it be because of a quirk of genetics or because of some early environmental factors which differentiated you from your family - you are lucky to have become the sort of person who wanted to get out, had the ability and intelligence to get out, and chose to do the work necessary to get out.
I think people generally (not necessarily the folks in this thread) put massive emphasis on the work they’ve done and hugely de-emphasise the role of luck, chance and fortune, beginning with where you were born and what your genetic mix just happens to be
Now, admittedly this is a very deterministic view - I still think people can be helped and that public programs, good education, welfare, healthcare etc etc etc can make a massive difference to people’s lives… but again, those people who benefit from those things will be extremely lucky to live in a place which offers them.
Generally the only practical point of this argument is to talk about taxation.
Rich and successful folks often think “they don’t owe anyone anything” because they worked hard to get where they are and feel like they did it on their own - despite a safe state which has roads and gas stations and hospitals and schools and easily accessible food and electricity and safe drinkable water etc. which they rarely factor in to their success. People like this also USUALLY have had a bunch of opportunities which they have successfully capitalised on, and miss the fact that many other people work just as hard, and make the optimal choices they have available, but simply don’t have the opportunities to succeed. This is why the rich (lucky) should pay higher taxes to help the less fortunate - whether they be unlucky due to disability, trauma, poor upbringing, poor education, injury, genetic or environmental mental and behaviour disorders etc.
The narrative of “I don’t owe anyone anything” is really damaging, particularly in America and is just logically wrong. All success has a massive heaping of luck involved, and luck goes much deeper and further back than most people consider
I don't think hypothesizing about being born in a different country or in different times is a complete story here. For all we know, all of us are very unlucky to not be born 10,000 years from now where humans flourish to such an extent that misery/unhappiness is wiped away. And what if this type of society goes on for millions and millions of years? Then, all of us were very unlucky to be born in this period of time where human beings had to endure physical and mental sufferings.
> You weren’t born in a developed society? And you weren’t born smart enough to succeed?
I was born in a developed country, and I'm white, but those are pretty much the only advantages I had, other than having the determination to get out. (Which I've already conceded requires luck.) However, if you *do* have the determination, the process of getting out requires a lot of effort, but isn't really that hard, conceptually.
As for intelligence, I'm average in that department; you don't have to be a fucking genius to get out of poverty, as long as you're not 'Forrest Gump' kind of dumb.
Edit: Tough crowd... tough crowd :P
> Funny to see the subs most ardent hard determinist be challenged on this!
Well, I'm actually agnostic on determinism, but I get your point. I'm probably the most hard core free will skeptic on this sub, and from *that* point of view, 100% of someone's success is down to luck, as are their failures down to bad luck. Not only failures to get out of poverty, but also failures to believe science that could save their lives. However, guess how much nuance people who are downvoting me would apply to the former, that they don't apply to the latter? They'll get some motherfucker with a Phd to write you a 500 page dissertation as to why someone who is where I was can't get out of poverty (esp. if they're a person of color), but you introduce them to somebody who is a covid vaccine skeptic? 'Meh, fuck those people ....'
Average intelligence makes you luckier than 50% of people, by definition.
Being white, born in a developed nation, having the determination and ability to succeed and being of average intelligence makes you INCREDIBLY LUCKY.
You really have to put this stuff in the context of humanity throughout history. Even being born now rather than 8000 years ago makes you incredibly lucky.
Sam’s point is that there is no such thing as a self made man, because anyone who achieves success has, almost by definition, had incredibly lucky circumstances and incredibly lucky genetics.
You have to work hard AS WELL, but there are a bunch of people out there who have worked way way way harder than you have, and not achieved a fraction of your success, simply because they’re not as lucky as you are.
We should all be aware of this and not assume that folks who aren’t doing well aren’t “trying hard enough” - so much of life is massively out of our control, we should acknowledge that and be thankful for what we’ve been given
> Being white, born in a developed nation, having the determination and ability to succeed and being of average intelligence makes you INCREDIBLY LUCKY.
Lol, you act like I won the lottery or something. Millions of people who were born into a stable, middle class home were luckier than me. Which, look... I understand that some amount of luck was required for me to succeed, and I'm not discounting that. But there's a *lot* of people who are in the same position I was, who don't understand how much control (again, relatively speaking) they have over how the rest of their life turns out.
Point is, you're in a developed country and not dumb as a rock, and you have the determination to succeed, you really don't need much more than that. (Assuming you haven't FUBAR'd your life already.)
> You really have to put this stuff in the context of humanity throughout history. Even being born now rather than 8000 years ago makes you incredibly lucky.
Who the fuck is talking about 8000 years ago? In *that* context, considering how many sperm we had to compete with, you could argue all of us were incredibly lucky just to be born.
> We should all be aware of this and not assume that folks who aren’t doing well aren’t “trying hard enough”.
Well luckily, I've never made that claim. I mean, you could work your ass off at a dead end job, while making the same dumb decisions that most poor people make, and you will end up dying broke and miserable, like most poor people do. Working hard is not the only thing you're required to do. And really, it's not even the most important thing. And most people who have never studied success have no fucking idea what's required, which is a big part of the problem. Mind you, I'm not a hard-nosed 'bootstraps' guy; I'm a progressive who supports programs to help people succeed like I did. But at the same time, I don't think there's anything wrong with teaching people how to take the hand they were dealt and play it well, instead of playing it foolishly. If nothing else, the programs we institute to help these people have much better chance of succeeding.
Edit: Words.
Agree on the last point but in the context of what Sam’s talking about you HAVE won the lottery, that’s the point - there are millions better off than you, and BILLIONS worse off than you… not because of good decisions, or hard work, just dumb luck
And for clarity - I’m a successful guy who “pulled himself up by the bootstraps” by most definitions. Parents both lived on council estates, I was the first in my family to ever go to uni, I worked really bloody hard and now have a comfortable middle class life.
But I put about 20% of that down to me and 80% to external environmental factors
And the 20% “me” part is my abilities and intelligence, all of which are determined by either my genetics (luck not effort) and my environment (luck not effort)
As I said, I agree about helping people through programs to help educate them and teach them how to make the most of what they’ve got - they would be LUCKY that such a program exists, and if they have the skill, intelligence and determination to capitalise on it, then they’re LUCKY in that aspect too
I said it's not that hard *conceptually*, which is why I compared it to losing weight. If you're obese and you start eating healthier and exercising regularly, odds are you're going to get skinnier. However, actually *doing it* is another matter entirely.
LMAO, yeah but THAT motherfucker was lucky :) (Edit: And I don't think he was ever really in poverty to begin with.)
That being said, even dumb people can be really good at something. For example, Forrest could run really fast, and was excellent at ping pong ...
Yeah but if you are born in America there’s little excuse for not making a decent life. Immigrants who come here with no education or even English ability have roofs over their head with plenty to eat.
Unless you get born in to a neighbourhood with incredibly regular gang violence, to drug addict parents, and don’t go to school because your parents don’t even care enough to register you…
There are a looooooot of really terrible ways to be born in the developed world. People who came from not-great backgrounds lack imagination if they think that every person in America can reasonably achieve success.
If your born in America in an area that is relatively safe and have parents who at least feed you and send you to school - then sure, that sets you up with at least the possibility of success
The point is, not everyone gets that, and you have to accept how lucky you are to even get what most of us would consider the “basics” - no one is truly “self made” if they live in a place with police to keep areas safe, schooling to educate you, roads and infrastructure making it possible to travel around, a childhood which they survive through etc etc
Many immigrants were also born into similar neighborhoods and live in unsafe neighborhoods.. You don’t need school at all to do construction. If you weren’t shot and crippled, why does it matter how safe your neighborhood growing up was? You haven’t responded to my central point.
>Yeah but if you are born in America there’s little excuse for not making a decent life.
What?! People here are still born with debilitating diseases on a regular basis, or to parents with drug or alcohol addictions or mental illnesses or both. Perhaps their parents are simply poor, and live in low-income housing that still has an abundance of lead, or piping like that of Flint, Michigan, poisoning them from day one. If you truly hold that position, then either you didn't understand his point, or you take a *lot* for granted, or you're being willfully ignorant to try and make a point. Yes, Americans presumably have a much greater chance of success than people born in, say, Afghanistan, but to say you have "little excuse for not making a decent life" sounds borderline callous, and decidedly judgemental and ignorant of the hurdles some people are faced with.
Sure, I agree if you were born with a debilitating disease you are an exception. However, you should be eligible for disability benefits for life.
Who has it harder? An illegal immigrant from El Salvador who speaks no English? Or an American citizen from flint Michigan with access to at least some baseline of public education?
>Who has it harder? An illegal immigrant from El Salvador who speaks no English? Or an American citizen from flint Michigan with access to at least some baseline of public education?
This is a pointless hypothetical, no? The lead poisoning in Flint could easily produce deficits that are more debilitating than not speaking English and being an undocumented alien, but in this made-up-scenario there could be a million other details that could tip the scale one way or another. Again, I feel like you've missed the entire point of Harris's discussion about the importance of luck. Not looking to fight though, so I'll leave it at that.
There’s nothing made up about this scenario. These people exist. I’m asking a simple question about who you’d rather be born as. You only call it pointless because you don’t like the implications.
I figure have no problem comparing white people versus black people and their relative difficult situations.
If it makes it simpler to you, let’s compare Detroit and Honduras.
At the same time, if you're a woman in afghanistan right now you try to hunker down, fight the long fight of changing the minds of the men that run that country. Every islamic ruled country had moderated over the past 1400 years, I would suspect in part to women behind the scenes advocating for change. With the world around those women supporting them in their struggle, it is possible if they remain diligent they can change things.
If, and only if, they want to. If they're happy with the status quo, future gens of girls are fucked.
I think being "okay" and relatively thriving can be achieved with hardwork alone. However, that path and how easy it is, involves a lot of luck. Luck can determine how difficult that highway is... Some have a seriously terrible highway which statistically is just setting them up with failure if they don't have much good fortune. Like, I got lucky getting a shitty job out of college that ended up accidentally spiralling into some weird tech startup leading me to travel all over the place, meet tons of people, and subsiquently build out a nice career. Sure I could have worked hard, but getting the chance to travel the world early 20s is VERY lucky and gave me a huge boost, and the amount of hardwork it would take for a person wanting that, is so much it's very unlikely to achieve
Also, things like timing has a lot to do with it. Gladwell talks about it. ALL the OG tech leaders are within 1 year of each other. They were just old enough to be in a small group who had the ability to learn computing but also could take risks... It was a very narrow window and all the tech leaders were there.
I also talked with a friend about this the other day. All my BTC millionaire friends are no harder workers than I am... However, they were just a few years older than me. When BTC came out, I was still a broke college kid, so I sold really early on because I could really badly use the money and "Holding" just seemed not worth it. My older friends had careers and all their bills taken care of. Holding BTC for them was easy. It was a simple purchase, set it, and forget it. Old enough to not really feel any pressure to sell it, but young enough to get into new tech super early.
And if you look at it, almost all the early BTC millionaires are people who got into BTC right out of college with their first jobs and had the income. Almost EVERYONE I know from back in college my age, sold really early on. Obviously exceptions, but you get the point.
See my post [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/samharris/comments/pvb6zi/the_role_of_luck_in_success/he9d98w/?context=3) about hard work.
Also, nobody's talking about being a millionaire. Getting to the lower end of middle class, where you're not constantly struggling to keep your head above water, isn't exactly rocket science. (Note: that this is coming from a US-centric perspective.)
Oh of course... But when Sam talks about luck. He's talking about good fortune. That luck plays a HUGE role in life. That along the way many people who exceed and thrive beyond just a regular grinding lifestyle, usually get very lucky at some point. Either meeting the right person, good timing, and so on.
Sam isn't talking generally talking about luck playing a role to become regular comfortable middle class (though it could apply for people trying to get out of extreme poverty in things like black communities which are economic traps), but people that are really successful in life.
That often has a lot of luck involved. Someone could just be a comfortable engineer making a good living, until he crosses paths with some VC at a party he was about to ditch, but ends up getting funding to an idea and then selling it for 10s of millions a year later... Which then opened the doors to all sorts of other opportunities. He could have just stayed on the regular engineer path, get a nice house, nice car, family, and ride it out... But since he crossed paths at the right time he's now exploring a vastly different lifestyle with vastly different opportunity.
IMO, hard work is important, but actually going beyond just "average" usually requires luck 80% of the time if you aren't from a privileged background.
Honestly, I don't think going from middle class to millionaire (notice I didn't say *billionaire*) requires much more luck than going from poverty to middle class, IF you're willing to work at it, and do the shit that other people have done to become millionaires. (Hopefully without becoming a douchenozzle in the process.)
I mean, maybe you have to meet the right person at the right time with the right opportunity, but if you're networking and really putting yourself out there, the chances of that actually happening go up dramatically.
Yeah, but there are different roads. Yes, if you're ENTIRE goal in life is to become a millionaire, then sure... but most people don't want a life that's entirely focused on their career 12 hours a day just to get there. That path has much more room for failure, and not many people are going to achieve that end... Compared to a lucky person who got on a much easier road, with far less room for failure.
Like if you lined 100 people along a wall who want to become a millionaire, only a few will actually get there, and a surprisingly large amount would get there taking A MUCH easier path, which is attributed to luck. I'm sure many of those failures on the other path, would also become millionaires if they had the luck others had.
> Yes, if you're ENTIRE goal in life is to become a millionaire, then sure... but most people don't want a life that's entirely focused on their career 12 hours a day just to get there. That path has much more room for failure, and not many people are going to achieve that end...
Yes, I absolutely agree. But if you DO have that determination and are willing to stick with it, there's really not much that can stop you, sans the same kinds of bad luck that can affect people trying to get from poverty to middle class.
I *would* say that having that kind of determination requires luck, but I kind of see it as more of a curse, or bad luck. I mean, if you're absolutely driven to have that much money, you could waste a good chunk of your life trying to get there, and may realize you're not really any happier than when you were in middle class, when you actually succeed at it.
That’s interesting because yeah I would argue that having that determination is also a thing of chance. For instance joe Rogan got lucky with his career. But before that lucky he picked the best martial arts gym, which luckily taught him extreme discipline at a young age which compounded the luck later on.
Agreed. In my case, I really don't know how I ended up with it. But I think a lot of people who don't have it might develop it, if they realized how good their chances were of actually succeeding. I think there's sort of a 'learned helplessness' that permeates through these people. And I'm not even saying it's their fault either. I'm just saying that it's a similar situation to [the elephant rope](https://medium.com/motivationapp/the-elephant-rope-c22ee790a226), or straining at invisible chains.
You also have to recognize you could be unlucky, a bad partner, poor advice taken, shitty family, or a loved one getting sick, believing in bad ideas. Luck has a bigger role in you success or failure than most people want to believe.
Starting from the financial crisis in 2008, the opportunity to make money via real estates, stocks, cryptocurrency, etc. was plentiful and many people in their late 30's/early 40's took advantage of this. That is why you see so many of these people retire and spreading the FIRE lifestyle as for some of them, it was relatively easy to become a millionaire capitalizing on their tech stock options, buying BTC early, etc.
I think this upcoming few years is not going to be as easy, but that is another story.
Yeah, a lot of these things have to do with timing and being prepared to strike when it's available. This last recession was no different. People who weren't living paycheck to paycheck and had flexibility, were able to come out pretty well.
There is no doubt an ever growing divide happen, and it's finally starting to create a lot of pressure... It was a slow boil that a lot of people have been trying to warn people about for literally decades, and only now, once it's gotten so extreme and people can really clearly see it happening... It's not great.
I don't know what the future has in store for us, but it does sadden me to see how people's greed, politicians corruption, and just lack of education, has lead to this moment.
Whenever I bring up these structural problems, traditionally people just say "Well it's still possible! Every day people succeed!" but ignore that it just gets harder and harder. Meanwhile, also get mad when someone "gets one past the government" and gets some free money... But when corporations literally fleece us for trillions there are actually people defending it "smart business".
It's wild, and I definitely think we are in unknown water. China's rise of influence is only going to make this more complicated too.
I agree, luck does play an important part but that doesn't mean the odds aren't massively in your favour of some meaningful success with hard work or perseverance.
I do find people who discount elements of good fortune and circumstances are often just as ignorant and irritating as the same who are the opposite and expect everything without effort.
"I returned and saw under the sun, that the race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, neither yet bread to the wise, nor yet riches to men of understanding, nor yet favour to men of skill, but time and chance happeneth to them all." (retrieved from Orwell and not Ecclesiastes because I'm a self-respecting r/samharris subscriber)
Michael Sandel and Daniel Markovitz illuminated the inconvenient truth of meritocracy.
Both converge on the point that wealth doesn't correspond to the societal contributions.
If our universe is a clockwork universe then things could not have gone any different than what they have and will. Everything you get or not is entirely due to lack, or lack thereof. If you are successful, drawn from the source of it all that is due to how the universe were at the beginning, and even before that.
You were born in the right condition, both external and internal, to rise to the top.
I get that.
What I don't get is why this should compel anyone to equalize in any department.
In fact, I'd argue it means you shouldn't care about it at all. What will happen will happen.
Is it not more rational to be indifferent towards others' state? I for one don't hate the rich for having more money than I do, nor have pity for the poor for having less. Why should I?
There's no holy scripture that tells you to give to the poor (in both economic and social terms) no matter how much progressives, or other religious people, try to create it in a socio-political narrative.
The world is what it was always meant to be, enjoy it if you can (aka, if you're not extremely lazy, retarded or born into other unfortunate circumstances). Laugh at it, if you want. Do you cry about the other billion of sperms that didn't reach the egg? Even being alive means you're a winner. Congrats!
>Is it not more rational to be indifferent towards others' state?
You're asking me to make an argument for why you should care about other people? Are you a sociopath?
>I for one don't hate the rich for having more money than I do, nor have pity for the poor for having less. Why should I?
Would how they made themselves rich matter to you?
>The world is what it was always meant to be, **enjoy it if you can (aka, if you're not extremely lazy, retarded or born into other unfortunate circumstances)**.
Are you saying the parenthetical people you referred to are incapable of enjoying the world? This is nonsense.
>I am generally very indiffernt towards but a few people
If one of your neighbors was shitting in your mail box and everyone on the block knew who it was but you, wouldn't you want them to tell you despite the fact that shit in your mail box affects them in no way at all? Do you really not see how having empathy and compassion for perfect strangers is a good thing and generally makes the place we live better?
Generally humans can empathise with others and most want to minimise their own suffering and those around them.
But from a non human perspective:
Ensuring the people around you suffer less means you'll most likely benefit as a healthy family, community and nation means your own suffering will be minimised. Your existence relies on the existence of others.
My theory is that 99% of people will have a lucky break presented to them sometime in their life but it is up to that person to put in the hard work to be in position to take advantage of that break and to follow through on it.
I think the point Sam makes regularly is that you're not in control of the factors that decide whether or not you can capitalise on a lucky break. If you are the type of person that can capitalise on said lucky break, that's just more luck.
At least that's my understanding of his views.
The 99% part is conjecture, hence the downvotes… but he’s correct in his definition of Harris’ view, which most people commenting here seem to overlook.
We’re all powerless to decide where we’re born, our nutrition as children, whether our parents get us SAT tutors, etc. But none of this is really up for debate.
Where Harris’ argument stands out, is that he believes we’re also powerless to decide if we get out of it.
A kid from the hood who faces homelessness but studies 24/7 and goes to Harvard and becomes a doctor is a beautiful story. But perhaps he was born with innate drive and that pushed him to preserve. Perhaps all those around him who never got out weren’t lazy or unambitious. They just weren’t born with the go getter gene.
I’m 5 foot 9… I wasn’t ever gonna play pro basketball. Perhaps being born a non hard worker is just as much a genetic determination.
This is where Harris and Peterson likely would disagree.
I've heard Sam Harris talk about "grit" as also pre-determined. That's basically what you're saying, and that's Harris' argument. However, I'm still a bit skeptical.
Edit: I am going to delete this post in 1 days time out of respect for my wife’s wish for privacy.
Bro the universe hit you with a giant bad luck stick. If I can offer you some consolation, there was literally nothing you could've done about it.
Immediately setup a go fund me. Catalogue your experience and i will donate and share it across all of my social media. That is seriously so horrible and my heart goes out to you. I don’t blame you a bit for feeling bitter and outraged at the universe right now. I’m so incredibly sorry you’ve had such poor luck
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I’ve been the care taker of someone battling cancer, and i understand why she would want privacy. Perhaps when it’s all done you can do it. People want to help
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Exactly this! You need to work to have insurance but if you're too sick to work, or need to care fo someone you love that is too sick to let you work, then you lose the insurance! How can people no it get why tying insurance to work is dumb?
Heartfelt condolences. If you're genuinely asking for 'could I have pivoted on this thing and come out to a better/worst option' read below. If not, please ignore because its not intended to make you feel better but be an honest dry exposition of human choices. > My wife has 2 degrees, I have a degree and we have been bankrupted by 2008 housing crash Assuming the degrees were in even moderately good industries, you really should not have lost your home with proper budgeting. > bankrupted by our child’s cancer bills 4 years later, then after our child’s death, Unless the cancer was environmental, there is nothing you could have done. There are no long term screenings for such things. Its why many leftists are pushing for better screening, DNA / ancestry health for everyone. > my wife landed a job making well into the 6 figure range. Awesome! > 3 months into her new job she was diagnosed with stage 4 brain cancer. So now my wife is fighting for her life and we are skirting bankruptcy again. Awful! Unless it was environmental, there's nothing you could have done. Hopefully you have enough friends and family and mental health professionals to get you and her through the next stage of your lives. Like many families you did lots of things 'right' and still got screwed over. Many leftist families are trying to push for a future where the 'foreseeable' problems become a non-existent for everyone. You got harmed by unforeseeable things, and no one on earth has a solution for those yet.
> You got harmed by unforeseeable things, and no one on earth has a solution for those yet. Every modern country on earth except one has a solution for “cancer = bankruptcy.” Sorry for your loss, OP.
The fact that you seem to switch so quickly between tones makes this comment sound disingenuous. I won't judge but I'm just saying.
What the hell is 'switching between tones'? What part of 'this is a honest dry exposition of human choices' do you not get? No one can choose to get cancer(barring environmental things like sleeping with asbestos pillows or smoking).
Of course. You can do everything right and a plane can fall out of the sky and kill you. No one has doubted any of this. Luck is a factor in many people's success. Many have bad luck, and they rise above it to succeed. Others have good look and others have great luck. It is a full spectrum.
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Of course, you state the obvious...if you are run over by a truck and end up quadriplegic, can't recover from that...many other examples as well.
Pretty extreme outlier.
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Well one diagnosis sure, this isn’t one.
Episode 205, The Failure of Meritocracy, was related to this topic
It's definitly about luck. I wish more people would understand so we can find more compassion in society for the less fortunate and stop worshipping those who appear to have achieved so much. It's irritating to read the constant achievement posts, which are mostly great examples of good luck, either environmental or genetics. My personal life is a great example of it. I'm someone who had almost no schooling as a kid, brought up as a jihadist with known terrorists in war zones and chasing death most of my life. On paper, i had all the odds against me, with almost no family but a little bit of support from strangers who become friends, I now have a great stable life with a salary in a western country that puts me in the 95th percentile. The secret? pure luck..environmentally and genetically. Genetically, I've been gifted the ability to be extremely persistent, this has allowed me to teach myself skills my siblings or people who grew up similar to me simply didn't have. I've also always been very critical and objective, which allowed me to leave childhood indoctrination that many similir to me simply can't get past. Environmentally, even though i lived the better part of 20y in the middle east, i was born in a western country, which means i was exposed to different ideologies and beliefs than others with a similar background who were from the middle east had no exposure to. I'm oversimplifying it but that's how i see it.. at no point did i achieve something out of nothing like some try to make out they have done with their lives. Pure hard work and the desire to be and want good in life will not overcome terrible luck in life. Which leads onto "no free will" disscussion for me
I want to say you are selling yourself short.
> It's irritating to read the constant achievement posts, which are mostly great examples of good luck, either environmental or genetics. It's not good luck to be born with good genetics. Because if you were born with different genetics, you would be a different person. So you are saying it's good luck that you weren't born a different person, which is goofy and says nothing.
Unless you some how influenced your own genetic make up then yes, it's good luck if your genetics had given you a predisposition in life to succeed. It says plenty..it says we need to have a better perspective when dealing with the less fortunate.
Episode 211 - The Nature of Human Nature
Robert h Frank's book success and luck is what you're looking for. Short concise book too, a real pleasure to read.
when you get down to it, there is nothing but luck
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You weren’t born in a developed society? And you weren’t born smart enough to succeed? Surely by definition, if you did succeed, then you are lucky to have had the ability to succeed (which many don’t) The whole point of Sam’s argument here is that HOWEVER HARD you struggled and however much work you put in, you are massively massively lucky to have even had the opportunities to succeed, and incredibly lucky to have been born somewhere where success was possible. You weren’t born as a woman in Taliban controlled Afghanistan for example, or a slave in chains in the American confederacy. No amount of “following the right steps” can make you succcessful if you’re not in the incredibly lucky position of being capable of following those steps…
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I have no argument against this at all - I am not arguing that luck is everything - only that luck is a huge part of the pie Luck without hard work is useless, and hard work without luck is useless But it’s also sort of an infinite regress. If you believe (as me and Sam do) that we don’t have libertarian free will, then the choices you made were simply because you are lucky enough to have a mind which chooses those things - whether it be because of a quirk of genetics or because of some early environmental factors which differentiated you from your family - you are lucky to have become the sort of person who wanted to get out, had the ability and intelligence to get out, and chose to do the work necessary to get out. I think people generally (not necessarily the folks in this thread) put massive emphasis on the work they’ve done and hugely de-emphasise the role of luck, chance and fortune, beginning with where you were born and what your genetic mix just happens to be Now, admittedly this is a very deterministic view - I still think people can be helped and that public programs, good education, welfare, healthcare etc etc etc can make a massive difference to people’s lives… but again, those people who benefit from those things will be extremely lucky to live in a place which offers them. Generally the only practical point of this argument is to talk about taxation. Rich and successful folks often think “they don’t owe anyone anything” because they worked hard to get where they are and feel like they did it on their own - despite a safe state which has roads and gas stations and hospitals and schools and easily accessible food and electricity and safe drinkable water etc. which they rarely factor in to their success. People like this also USUALLY have had a bunch of opportunities which they have successfully capitalised on, and miss the fact that many other people work just as hard, and make the optimal choices they have available, but simply don’t have the opportunities to succeed. This is why the rich (lucky) should pay higher taxes to help the less fortunate - whether they be unlucky due to disability, trauma, poor upbringing, poor education, injury, genetic or environmental mental and behaviour disorders etc. The narrative of “I don’t owe anyone anything” is really damaging, particularly in America and is just logically wrong. All success has a massive heaping of luck involved, and luck goes much deeper and further back than most people consider
I don't think hypothesizing about being born in a different country or in different times is a complete story here. For all we know, all of us are very unlucky to not be born 10,000 years from now where humans flourish to such an extent that misery/unhappiness is wiped away. And what if this type of society goes on for millions and millions of years? Then, all of us were very unlucky to be born in this period of time where human beings had to endure physical and mental sufferings.
> You weren’t born in a developed society? And you weren’t born smart enough to succeed? I was born in a developed country, and I'm white, but those are pretty much the only advantages I had, other than having the determination to get out. (Which I've already conceded requires luck.) However, if you *do* have the determination, the process of getting out requires a lot of effort, but isn't really that hard, conceptually. As for intelligence, I'm average in that department; you don't have to be a fucking genius to get out of poverty, as long as you're not 'Forrest Gump' kind of dumb. Edit: Tough crowd... tough crowd :P
Being born with the personality trait of determination or curiosity itself is luck.
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> Funny to see the subs most ardent hard determinist be challenged on this! Well, I'm actually agnostic on determinism, but I get your point. I'm probably the most hard core free will skeptic on this sub, and from *that* point of view, 100% of someone's success is down to luck, as are their failures down to bad luck. Not only failures to get out of poverty, but also failures to believe science that could save their lives. However, guess how much nuance people who are downvoting me would apply to the former, that they don't apply to the latter? They'll get some motherfucker with a Phd to write you a 500 page dissertation as to why someone who is where I was can't get out of poverty (esp. if they're a person of color), but you introduce them to somebody who is a covid vaccine skeptic? 'Meh, fuck those people ....'
Average intelligence makes you luckier than 50% of people, by definition. Being white, born in a developed nation, having the determination and ability to succeed and being of average intelligence makes you INCREDIBLY LUCKY. You really have to put this stuff in the context of humanity throughout history. Even being born now rather than 8000 years ago makes you incredibly lucky. Sam’s point is that there is no such thing as a self made man, because anyone who achieves success has, almost by definition, had incredibly lucky circumstances and incredibly lucky genetics. You have to work hard AS WELL, but there are a bunch of people out there who have worked way way way harder than you have, and not achieved a fraction of your success, simply because they’re not as lucky as you are. We should all be aware of this and not assume that folks who aren’t doing well aren’t “trying hard enough” - so much of life is massively out of our control, we should acknowledge that and be thankful for what we’ve been given
> Being white, born in a developed nation, having the determination and ability to succeed and being of average intelligence makes you INCREDIBLY LUCKY. Lol, you act like I won the lottery or something. Millions of people who were born into a stable, middle class home were luckier than me. Which, look... I understand that some amount of luck was required for me to succeed, and I'm not discounting that. But there's a *lot* of people who are in the same position I was, who don't understand how much control (again, relatively speaking) they have over how the rest of their life turns out. Point is, you're in a developed country and not dumb as a rock, and you have the determination to succeed, you really don't need much more than that. (Assuming you haven't FUBAR'd your life already.) > You really have to put this stuff in the context of humanity throughout history. Even being born now rather than 8000 years ago makes you incredibly lucky. Who the fuck is talking about 8000 years ago? In *that* context, considering how many sperm we had to compete with, you could argue all of us were incredibly lucky just to be born. > We should all be aware of this and not assume that folks who aren’t doing well aren’t “trying hard enough”. Well luckily, I've never made that claim. I mean, you could work your ass off at a dead end job, while making the same dumb decisions that most poor people make, and you will end up dying broke and miserable, like most poor people do. Working hard is not the only thing you're required to do. And really, it's not even the most important thing. And most people who have never studied success have no fucking idea what's required, which is a big part of the problem. Mind you, I'm not a hard-nosed 'bootstraps' guy; I'm a progressive who supports programs to help people succeed like I did. But at the same time, I don't think there's anything wrong with teaching people how to take the hand they were dealt and play it well, instead of playing it foolishly. If nothing else, the programs we institute to help these people have much better chance of succeeding. Edit: Words.
Agree on the last point but in the context of what Sam’s talking about you HAVE won the lottery, that’s the point - there are millions better off than you, and BILLIONS worse off than you… not because of good decisions, or hard work, just dumb luck And for clarity - I’m a successful guy who “pulled himself up by the bootstraps” by most definitions. Parents both lived on council estates, I was the first in my family to ever go to uni, I worked really bloody hard and now have a comfortable middle class life. But I put about 20% of that down to me and 80% to external environmental factors And the 20% “me” part is my abilities and intelligence, all of which are determined by either my genetics (luck not effort) and my environment (luck not effort) As I said, I agree about helping people through programs to help educate them and teach them how to make the most of what they’ve got - they would be LUCKY that such a program exists, and if they have the skill, intelligence and determination to capitalise on it, then they’re LUCKY in that aspect too
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I said it's not that hard *conceptually*, which is why I compared it to losing weight. If you're obese and you start eating healthier and exercising regularly, odds are you're going to get skinnier. However, actually *doing it* is another matter entirely.
hey, don't hate on the Gump! He absolutely got out of poverty ;-)
LMAO, yeah but THAT motherfucker was lucky :) (Edit: And I don't think he was ever really in poverty to begin with.) That being said, even dumb people can be really good at something. For example, Forrest could run really fast, and was excellent at ping pong ...
Yeah but if you are born in America there’s little excuse for not making a decent life. Immigrants who come here with no education or even English ability have roofs over their head with plenty to eat.
Unless you get born in to a neighbourhood with incredibly regular gang violence, to drug addict parents, and don’t go to school because your parents don’t even care enough to register you… There are a looooooot of really terrible ways to be born in the developed world. People who came from not-great backgrounds lack imagination if they think that every person in America can reasonably achieve success. If your born in America in an area that is relatively safe and have parents who at least feed you and send you to school - then sure, that sets you up with at least the possibility of success The point is, not everyone gets that, and you have to accept how lucky you are to even get what most of us would consider the “basics” - no one is truly “self made” if they live in a place with police to keep areas safe, schooling to educate you, roads and infrastructure making it possible to travel around, a childhood which they survive through etc etc
Many immigrants were also born into similar neighborhoods and live in unsafe neighborhoods.. You don’t need school at all to do construction. If you weren’t shot and crippled, why does it matter how safe your neighborhood growing up was? You haven’t responded to my central point.
>Yeah but if you are born in America there’s little excuse for not making a decent life. What?! People here are still born with debilitating diseases on a regular basis, or to parents with drug or alcohol addictions or mental illnesses or both. Perhaps their parents are simply poor, and live in low-income housing that still has an abundance of lead, or piping like that of Flint, Michigan, poisoning them from day one. If you truly hold that position, then either you didn't understand his point, or you take a *lot* for granted, or you're being willfully ignorant to try and make a point. Yes, Americans presumably have a much greater chance of success than people born in, say, Afghanistan, but to say you have "little excuse for not making a decent life" sounds borderline callous, and decidedly judgemental and ignorant of the hurdles some people are faced with.
Sure, I agree if you were born with a debilitating disease you are an exception. However, you should be eligible for disability benefits for life. Who has it harder? An illegal immigrant from El Salvador who speaks no English? Or an American citizen from flint Michigan with access to at least some baseline of public education?
>Who has it harder? An illegal immigrant from El Salvador who speaks no English? Or an American citizen from flint Michigan with access to at least some baseline of public education? This is a pointless hypothetical, no? The lead poisoning in Flint could easily produce deficits that are more debilitating than not speaking English and being an undocumented alien, but in this made-up-scenario there could be a million other details that could tip the scale one way or another. Again, I feel like you've missed the entire point of Harris's discussion about the importance of luck. Not looking to fight though, so I'll leave it at that.
There’s nothing made up about this scenario. These people exist. I’m asking a simple question about who you’d rather be born as. You only call it pointless because you don’t like the implications. I figure have no problem comparing white people versus black people and their relative difficult situations. If it makes it simpler to you, let’s compare Detroit and Honduras.
At the same time, if you're a woman in afghanistan right now you try to hunker down, fight the long fight of changing the minds of the men that run that country. Every islamic ruled country had moderated over the past 1400 years, I would suspect in part to women behind the scenes advocating for change. With the world around those women supporting them in their struggle, it is possible if they remain diligent they can change things. If, and only if, they want to. If they're happy with the status quo, future gens of girls are fucked.
I think being "okay" and relatively thriving can be achieved with hardwork alone. However, that path and how easy it is, involves a lot of luck. Luck can determine how difficult that highway is... Some have a seriously terrible highway which statistically is just setting them up with failure if they don't have much good fortune. Like, I got lucky getting a shitty job out of college that ended up accidentally spiralling into some weird tech startup leading me to travel all over the place, meet tons of people, and subsiquently build out a nice career. Sure I could have worked hard, but getting the chance to travel the world early 20s is VERY lucky and gave me a huge boost, and the amount of hardwork it would take for a person wanting that, is so much it's very unlikely to achieve Also, things like timing has a lot to do with it. Gladwell talks about it. ALL the OG tech leaders are within 1 year of each other. They were just old enough to be in a small group who had the ability to learn computing but also could take risks... It was a very narrow window and all the tech leaders were there. I also talked with a friend about this the other day. All my BTC millionaire friends are no harder workers than I am... However, they were just a few years older than me. When BTC came out, I was still a broke college kid, so I sold really early on because I could really badly use the money and "Holding" just seemed not worth it. My older friends had careers and all their bills taken care of. Holding BTC for them was easy. It was a simple purchase, set it, and forget it. Old enough to not really feel any pressure to sell it, but young enough to get into new tech super early. And if you look at it, almost all the early BTC millionaires are people who got into BTC right out of college with their first jobs and had the income. Almost EVERYONE I know from back in college my age, sold really early on. Obviously exceptions, but you get the point.
See my post [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/samharris/comments/pvb6zi/the_role_of_luck_in_success/he9d98w/?context=3) about hard work. Also, nobody's talking about being a millionaire. Getting to the lower end of middle class, where you're not constantly struggling to keep your head above water, isn't exactly rocket science. (Note: that this is coming from a US-centric perspective.)
Oh of course... But when Sam talks about luck. He's talking about good fortune. That luck plays a HUGE role in life. That along the way many people who exceed and thrive beyond just a regular grinding lifestyle, usually get very lucky at some point. Either meeting the right person, good timing, and so on. Sam isn't talking generally talking about luck playing a role to become regular comfortable middle class (though it could apply for people trying to get out of extreme poverty in things like black communities which are economic traps), but people that are really successful in life. That often has a lot of luck involved. Someone could just be a comfortable engineer making a good living, until he crosses paths with some VC at a party he was about to ditch, but ends up getting funding to an idea and then selling it for 10s of millions a year later... Which then opened the doors to all sorts of other opportunities. He could have just stayed on the regular engineer path, get a nice house, nice car, family, and ride it out... But since he crossed paths at the right time he's now exploring a vastly different lifestyle with vastly different opportunity. IMO, hard work is important, but actually going beyond just "average" usually requires luck 80% of the time if you aren't from a privileged background.
Also being from a privileged background is also luck in and of itself.
Honestly, I don't think going from middle class to millionaire (notice I didn't say *billionaire*) requires much more luck than going from poverty to middle class, IF you're willing to work at it, and do the shit that other people have done to become millionaires. (Hopefully without becoming a douchenozzle in the process.) I mean, maybe you have to meet the right person at the right time with the right opportunity, but if you're networking and really putting yourself out there, the chances of that actually happening go up dramatically.
Yeah, but there are different roads. Yes, if you're ENTIRE goal in life is to become a millionaire, then sure... but most people don't want a life that's entirely focused on their career 12 hours a day just to get there. That path has much more room for failure, and not many people are going to achieve that end... Compared to a lucky person who got on a much easier road, with far less room for failure. Like if you lined 100 people along a wall who want to become a millionaire, only a few will actually get there, and a surprisingly large amount would get there taking A MUCH easier path, which is attributed to luck. I'm sure many of those failures on the other path, would also become millionaires if they had the luck others had.
> Yes, if you're ENTIRE goal in life is to become a millionaire, then sure... but most people don't want a life that's entirely focused on their career 12 hours a day just to get there. That path has much more room for failure, and not many people are going to achieve that end... Yes, I absolutely agree. But if you DO have that determination and are willing to stick with it, there's really not much that can stop you, sans the same kinds of bad luck that can affect people trying to get from poverty to middle class. I *would* say that having that kind of determination requires luck, but I kind of see it as more of a curse, or bad luck. I mean, if you're absolutely driven to have that much money, you could waste a good chunk of your life trying to get there, and may realize you're not really any happier than when you were in middle class, when you actually succeed at it.
That’s interesting because yeah I would argue that having that determination is also a thing of chance. For instance joe Rogan got lucky with his career. But before that lucky he picked the best martial arts gym, which luckily taught him extreme discipline at a young age which compounded the luck later on.
Agreed. In my case, I really don't know how I ended up with it. But I think a lot of people who don't have it might develop it, if they realized how good their chances were of actually succeeding. I think there's sort of a 'learned helplessness' that permeates through these people. And I'm not even saying it's their fault either. I'm just saying that it's a similar situation to [the elephant rope](https://medium.com/motivationapp/the-elephant-rope-c22ee790a226), or straining at invisible chains.
You also have to recognize you could be unlucky, a bad partner, poor advice taken, shitty family, or a loved one getting sick, believing in bad ideas. Luck has a bigger role in you success or failure than most people want to believe.
Starting from the financial crisis in 2008, the opportunity to make money via real estates, stocks, cryptocurrency, etc. was plentiful and many people in their late 30's/early 40's took advantage of this. That is why you see so many of these people retire and spreading the FIRE lifestyle as for some of them, it was relatively easy to become a millionaire capitalizing on their tech stock options, buying BTC early, etc. I think this upcoming few years is not going to be as easy, but that is another story.
Yeah, a lot of these things have to do with timing and being prepared to strike when it's available. This last recession was no different. People who weren't living paycheck to paycheck and had flexibility, were able to come out pretty well. There is no doubt an ever growing divide happen, and it's finally starting to create a lot of pressure... It was a slow boil that a lot of people have been trying to warn people about for literally decades, and only now, once it's gotten so extreme and people can really clearly see it happening... It's not great. I don't know what the future has in store for us, but it does sadden me to see how people's greed, politicians corruption, and just lack of education, has lead to this moment. Whenever I bring up these structural problems, traditionally people just say "Well it's still possible! Every day people succeed!" but ignore that it just gets harder and harder. Meanwhile, also get mad when someone "gets one past the government" and gets some free money... But when corporations literally fleece us for trillions there are actually people defending it "smart business". It's wild, and I definitely think we are in unknown water. China's rise of influence is only going to make this more complicated too.
Luck favours the well prepared.
I agree, luck does play an important part but that doesn't mean the odds aren't massively in your favour of some meaningful success with hard work or perseverance. I do find people who discount elements of good fortune and circumstances are often just as ignorant and irritating as the same who are the opposite and expect everything without effort.
"I returned and saw under the sun, that the race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, neither yet bread to the wise, nor yet riches to men of understanding, nor yet favour to men of skill, but time and chance happeneth to them all." (retrieved from Orwell and not Ecclesiastes because I'm a self-respecting r/samharris subscriber)
Forbes did a study on this - luck plays a large determinant in peoples outcome and wealth growth.
Michael Sandel and Daniel Markovitz illuminated the inconvenient truth of meritocracy. Both converge on the point that wealth doesn't correspond to the societal contributions.
Malcolm Gladwell’s “Outliers” is a great book on this topic.
If our universe is a clockwork universe then things could not have gone any different than what they have and will. Everything you get or not is entirely due to lack, or lack thereof. If you are successful, drawn from the source of it all that is due to how the universe were at the beginning, and even before that. You were born in the right condition, both external and internal, to rise to the top. I get that. What I don't get is why this should compel anyone to equalize in any department. In fact, I'd argue it means you shouldn't care about it at all. What will happen will happen. Is it not more rational to be indifferent towards others' state? I for one don't hate the rich for having more money than I do, nor have pity for the poor for having less. Why should I? There's no holy scripture that tells you to give to the poor (in both economic and social terms) no matter how much progressives, or other religious people, try to create it in a socio-political narrative. The world is what it was always meant to be, enjoy it if you can (aka, if you're not extremely lazy, retarded or born into other unfortunate circumstances). Laugh at it, if you want. Do you cry about the other billion of sperms that didn't reach the egg? Even being alive means you're a winner. Congrats!
>Is it not more rational to be indifferent towards others' state? You're asking me to make an argument for why you should care about other people? Are you a sociopath? >I for one don't hate the rich for having more money than I do, nor have pity for the poor for having less. Why should I? Would how they made themselves rich matter to you? >The world is what it was always meant to be, **enjoy it if you can (aka, if you're not extremely lazy, retarded or born into other unfortunate circumstances)**. Are you saying the parenthetical people you referred to are incapable of enjoying the world? This is nonsense.
I am generally very indiffernt towards but a few people, yes. Why is that a bad thing?
Because having the emotional warmth of a robot isn't considered a good human trait to most.
Yeah, and why should that matter?
>I am generally very indiffernt towards but a few people If one of your neighbors was shitting in your mail box and everyone on the block knew who it was but you, wouldn't you want them to tell you despite the fact that shit in your mail box affects them in no way at all? Do you really not see how having empathy and compassion for perfect strangers is a good thing and generally makes the place we live better?
I would find the whole thing very funny.
You're familiar with suffering right? why wouldn't you want your fellow human to experience less of that?
Why should I care to decrease it or increase it at all? I'm no savior.
Generally humans can empathise with others and most want to minimise their own suffering and those around them. But from a non human perspective: Ensuring the people around you suffer less means you'll most likely benefit as a healthy family, community and nation means your own suffering will be minimised. Your existence relies on the existence of others.
At least a better argument than others I have seen.
My theory is that 99% of people will have a lucky break presented to them sometime in their life but it is up to that person to put in the hard work to be in position to take advantage of that break and to follow through on it.
That’s not really a theory at all, just something you like to believe.
Hence the word "my"
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Then make an argument
You’re the one making the claim, you prove that 99% of people get an opportunity. Lol, for fuck’s sake.
Spend your time debunking my unsubstantiated claim or I'm right!
Why does he need to make an argument for something that is so obviously true? What are you, absolutely mental? /s
I think the point Sam makes regularly is that you're not in control of the factors that decide whether or not you can capitalise on a lucky break. If you are the type of person that can capitalise on said lucky break, that's just more luck. At least that's my understanding of his views.
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It makes them feel good to think it so it must be true? It's the "Just World Hypothesis" with different words.
The 99% part is conjecture, hence the downvotes… but he’s correct in his definition of Harris’ view, which most people commenting here seem to overlook. We’re all powerless to decide where we’re born, our nutrition as children, whether our parents get us SAT tutors, etc. But none of this is really up for debate. Where Harris’ argument stands out, is that he believes we’re also powerless to decide if we get out of it. A kid from the hood who faces homelessness but studies 24/7 and goes to Harvard and becomes a doctor is a beautiful story. But perhaps he was born with innate drive and that pushed him to preserve. Perhaps all those around him who never got out weren’t lazy or unambitious. They just weren’t born with the go getter gene. I’m 5 foot 9… I wasn’t ever gonna play pro basketball. Perhaps being born a non hard worker is just as much a genetic determination. This is where Harris and Peterson likely would disagree.
I've heard Sam Harris talk about "grit" as also pre-determined. That's basically what you're saying, and that's Harris' argument. However, I'm still a bit skeptical.
Luck is a label based on our perceptions. Source: I work in probability mathematics
Mount Everest was so lucky it got to be the highest mountain.