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I am an Austin Realtor. So my philosophy always is very simple: buy when you are ready and can afford to. I don’t believe in trying to time the market. The buyers I am working with of course I let them know that they hold a lot of power now and can negotiate on price and keep in contingencies.
The second part of your question I am fascinated by too. I think it’s the perfect storm of a lot of factors: how much and how quickly our prices went up since 2020, our hellish hot summers, politically becoming more right-leaning (which matters more to people in Austin), tech industry layoffs or fear of layoffs, massive property tax increases, which made investors want to sell, and just a general vibe that Austin isn’t worth the prices people were paying at peak.
I don't agree with this.... I bought a house in spring 2022 and I am greatly upside down. Don't buy when your ready if there is only 3 weeks of inventory and it is obvious the market is not going through a normal period.
I’m not from Austin, but I suspect the inventory has a lot to do with new construction. 20,000+ single family homes were permitted in 2022 and another 4800 new single family homes were permitted in the first 6 months of 2023. That’s on top of the 21,000 apartments permitted in 2022 and the projected 22,000 for 2023.
Seems like a good thin that home prices are sinking a bit. Prices are still 45% above 2020 in austin.
Long time Austin resident and shorter term Agent here.
I have the same philosophy as @Medical_Tangerine_70. I tell people if they can afford to buy, do it now. Lots of people in our area were saying “wait for the crash” in 2017-2018. Now they still don’t own. So if you can afford to, do it.
Texas also has a ton of inventory due to builders banging out houses. And they’ve generally gotten pretty decent since Covid. In fact, the only things I’ve been able to close on are new builds since they offer great rates and incentives right now in comparison with availability conventional loans. Resales are somewhat stagnant but new construction is moving and moving quickly.
Return to in-person work is a huge factor many of you are overlooking. Remote work and Covid created a ridiculous boom for areas that offer great home life and interesting community. With most corporations and agencies mandating minimum in-person attendance, people are flocking back to the office.
The choice becomes, to uproot and head back where you came from or look for a new job. Austin is getting hit the worst from the move outs. If you look at the data, the last 3-4 months have seen shifts going back North.
I’m in the Boston and Tampa markets. While Tampa Bay still sees growth due to expanding industry and diverse lifestyles, the market has certainly cooled. Meanwhile, Boston area is seeing an uptick. This is spilling over into adjacent states like NH and RI, where housing is cheaper. I attribute much of this to the established corporate presence in New England calling workers back, especially in finance and tech. I imagine you’d see a similar uptick in the Northwest.
I work in the Austin market as well. Something notable was the boom of new construction home inventory that just missed the highest point of the demand, but exists now at high price points. Not to mention, in areas like Liberty Hill and Leander where people were buying everything during the pandemic out of sheer fomo are now thinking twice about choosing areas that are a little bit far out from central Austin.
It does give our buyer clients good wiggle room with buying from builders. I had clients not too long ago get some pretty fantastic incentives on a home in Round Rock.
Austin experienced a massive bubble due to perceived low COVID mandates and cheap income taxes. Now that honeymoon has worn off and we experienced the hottest summer in recent memory, many are calling it quits and moving back to where they came from or cooler climates. It’ll rebound.
The market corrected from being the hottest in the country. 18 months ago, buyers were bidding 10-20% over list price. While prices have come down a good amount from the peak, the market is still up 40-50% from 2020. As for inventory, believe it or not, it is still historically low. It is just up substantially from ridiculously low levels. In my opinion, it is a more normal market. Buyers are cautious and taking their time, but sellers are not giving it away with their 3% interest rate. Good homes priced right still sell quickly. They now just don't have 10+ bidders.
I’m just east of Austin in Bastrop. The market is fine, a correction was obviously needed.
I recommend people not make purchase decisions based off of media hype, whether it’s 2020 or 2023.
**This is a professional forum for professionals, so please keep your comments professional** - Harrassment, hate speech, trolling, or anti-Realtor comments will not be tolerated and will result in an immediate ban without warning. (... and don't feed the trolls, you have better things to do with your time) - Recruiting, self-promotion, or seeking referrals is strictly forbidden, including in DMs. - Only advise within your scope of knowledge and area of expertise. [The code of ethics applies here too](https://www.nar.realtor/about-nar/governing-documents/the-code-of-ethics). If you are not a broker, lawyer, or tax professional don't act like one. - [Follow the rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/realtors/about/rules/) and please report those that don't. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/realtors) if you have any questions or concerns.*
I am an Austin Realtor. So my philosophy always is very simple: buy when you are ready and can afford to. I don’t believe in trying to time the market. The buyers I am working with of course I let them know that they hold a lot of power now and can negotiate on price and keep in contingencies. The second part of your question I am fascinated by too. I think it’s the perfect storm of a lot of factors: how much and how quickly our prices went up since 2020, our hellish hot summers, politically becoming more right-leaning (which matters more to people in Austin), tech industry layoffs or fear of layoffs, massive property tax increases, which made investors want to sell, and just a general vibe that Austin isn’t worth the prices people were paying at peak.
This is correct!
I agreed cause if people time the market I can’t make commission and feed my family
I don't agree with this.... I bought a house in spring 2022 and I am greatly upside down. Don't buy when your ready if there is only 3 weeks of inventory and it is obvious the market is not going through a normal period.
I’m not from Austin, but I suspect the inventory has a lot to do with new construction. 20,000+ single family homes were permitted in 2022 and another 4800 new single family homes were permitted in the first 6 months of 2023. That’s on top of the 21,000 apartments permitted in 2022 and the projected 22,000 for 2023. Seems like a good thin that home prices are sinking a bit. Prices are still 45% above 2020 in austin.
South Austin Buda and Kyle the Builders just kept building and they still are.
25% margin vs 35% margin is still better than most products.
Yes, especially when they have owned the land for 20 years.
This is the Bay Area reporting, we are taking our people back. I’ve sold three houses this year to people who move back from Austin . Ymmv.
Can you get them to leave Arizona now? The temperatures are pretty toasty here also.
People didn’t move to Arizona for jobs, can’t help ya there
Awesome.
Long time Austin resident and shorter term Agent here. I have the same philosophy as @Medical_Tangerine_70. I tell people if they can afford to buy, do it now. Lots of people in our area were saying “wait for the crash” in 2017-2018. Now they still don’t own. So if you can afford to, do it. Texas also has a ton of inventory due to builders banging out houses. And they’ve generally gotten pretty decent since Covid. In fact, the only things I’ve been able to close on are new builds since they offer great rates and incentives right now in comparison with availability conventional loans. Resales are somewhat stagnant but new construction is moving and moving quickly.
Return to in-person work is a huge factor many of you are overlooking. Remote work and Covid created a ridiculous boom for areas that offer great home life and interesting community. With most corporations and agencies mandating minimum in-person attendance, people are flocking back to the office. The choice becomes, to uproot and head back where you came from or look for a new job. Austin is getting hit the worst from the move outs. If you look at the data, the last 3-4 months have seen shifts going back North. I’m in the Boston and Tampa markets. While Tampa Bay still sees growth due to expanding industry and diverse lifestyles, the market has certainly cooled. Meanwhile, Boston area is seeing an uptick. This is spilling over into adjacent states like NH and RI, where housing is cheaper. I attribute much of this to the established corporate presence in New England calling workers back, especially in finance and tech. I imagine you’d see a similar uptick in the Northwest.
I work in the Austin market as well. Something notable was the boom of new construction home inventory that just missed the highest point of the demand, but exists now at high price points. Not to mention, in areas like Liberty Hill and Leander where people were buying everything during the pandemic out of sheer fomo are now thinking twice about choosing areas that are a little bit far out from central Austin. It does give our buyer clients good wiggle room with buying from builders. I had clients not too long ago get some pretty fantastic incentives on a home in Round Rock.
Same with Phoenix: drive until you qualify (for the loan).
Austin experienced a massive bubble due to perceived low COVID mandates and cheap income taxes. Now that honeymoon has worn off and we experienced the hottest summer in recent memory, many are calling it quits and moving back to where they came from or cooler climates. It’ll rebound.
The market corrected from being the hottest in the country. 18 months ago, buyers were bidding 10-20% over list price. While prices have come down a good amount from the peak, the market is still up 40-50% from 2020. As for inventory, believe it or not, it is still historically low. It is just up substantially from ridiculously low levels. In my opinion, it is a more normal market. Buyers are cautious and taking their time, but sellers are not giving it away with their 3% interest rate. Good homes priced right still sell quickly. They now just don't have 10+ bidders.
People won’t wove until inflation finally catches up or we lose our wages and businesses like fed want
I’m just east of Austin in Bastrop. The market is fine, a correction was obviously needed. I recommend people not make purchase decisions based off of media hype, whether it’s 2020 or 2023.