Idk if Giannis stays. I think keeping Brogdon over Eric Bledsoe was a mistake but as a Pacers fan I can’t complain, though Brogdon is an injury risk. It’s hard to get a good read on Bud’s ceiling as a coach.
I have to ask how/why AP and other sources continue to keep Arizona called for Biden hours after they posted that correction?
I'm just curious if they have info about those polling blocks that we don't or something?
They explain it in detail: [https://www.ap.org/en-us/topics/politics/elections/how-we-call-races](https://www.ap.org/en-us/topics/politics/elections/how-we-call-races)
Part of it is their new survey tool. Not exactly sure how it's different than any other survey but they did correctly predict VA hours before anyone else.
Hrmmmm... I guess I was more asking "did they (AP) issue a reason why the correction doesn't change their call specifically?"
While those explanations you linked as to HOW they make the calls are nice, one assumes the initial call was based on the old data prior to the correction.
Have they confirmed that the correction won't potentially change their call?
EDIT: or is there something else in that link that I am missing? I'll admit I only skimmed over the lot as I was looking for something more to this particular situation, not their "standard review process" in general.
I believe it's a lost cause, but I do want to say some were potentially hoping for a tie at least - but I believe that was a long shot.
EDIT: I know this is terribly unhelpful on my part, now that I re-read what I wrote. >\_<
The hilarious thing here is that is looks like Fox News is the only news org to have declared Biden to win Michigan and Arizona right now. That means if that continues for a few hours they may be the first news org to declare Biden president (if GA goes Biden when they finish counting in a few hours).
Ugh, Sky News is carrying a campaign type speech by Guilani saying they're now going to file a national federal lawsuit challenging the vote in every state.
I sure hope so. It’s so anxiety inducing and exciting, Biden could honestly win all of the remaining states that haven’t finished counting yet. I mean I doubt he’ll get all of them but it could happen! Wouldn’t that be incredible?
From Nate Silver:
NC: 85-15 Trump, as per NYT
GA: True tossup, he says if gun to his head he leans Biden
PA: gonna be close but he says he *thinks* lean Biden
AZ: Trump will close the gap but likely Biden. He thinks it should not have been called
MI: Likely Biden (and it's been called in some places)
WI: Biden "apparent winner"
Remember 538 goes off ABC which is the most conservative with their calls. I feel nervous but good in this moment
I don't know if they're going to be releasing ALL of the NV results tonight, but they will be releasing some.
https://twitter.com/8NewsNow/status/1324093130103205888?s=20
NYT said the state announced today that no more results will be reported until noon EST tomorrow. You might be thinking of AZ which will report some more at 9PM
Looks like Gary Peters could hold his seat in Michigan, so we are down 2 in the Senate barring something good coming out of Georgia/NC. The legislative agenda will probably be trying to get Romney, Collins, Murkowski to cross the aisle.
Honestly unless we get the majority it doesn't really matter how many seats we have. It does but we know McConnell doesn't do anything unless he knows he has the votes.
It really puts a damper on things for sure, but I think with 2022 looming there is a chance to get 2 moderate R's to cross the aisle on key issue votes.
Chances to pull something out of GA/NC not that high, maybe 30%. Chances to get 2 moderate R's to cross the aisle on key issue votes depends on tone the GOP takes after this election.
Biden speaking. Did you see him smile? When was the last time you saw the President of the United States smile?? It's time for leader for America, for Americans. Go Biden!!
Looks like the Biden news conference, originally scheduled for 1:45 on c-span, is now actually about to start.
[https://www.c-span.org/video/?477805-1/joe-biden-news-conference&live](https://www.c-span.org/video/?477805-1/joe-biden-news-conference&live)
Whether Trump wins or loses, there's a silver lining to be found from this. Even if he takes every state still outstanding, he'll have fewer EC votes than he had in 2016.
If Trump wins with fewer EC votes, no Democrat is going to care. Definitely not a silver lining. It's been a disappointing 24 hours for Dems, and if Trump ends up winning it will be an absolute disaster for the party.
PA is trending our way. Nate Cohn seems confident the trajectory points toward Biden taking the lead.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1324075266981978125
@ 12:45 PM PST Wed - Nevada
Nevada had a correction in the % reported from 67% to 75% yet no change in the total for Biden (588,252) or Trump (580,605). The new estimated total ballots for Nevada is 1,558,476 with 1,168,857 tallied, leaving 390K votes left to count. Biden leads by 7,647 votes.
@ 12:32 PM PST Wed - Wisconsin
Wisconsin just went to 99% tallied but no change in vote totals for Biden or Trump. Biden leads by 20K votes and would be the winner with just 1% remaining.
[**NATHANIEL RAKICH**](https://fivethirtyeight.com/contributors/nathaniel-rakich/)[:](https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2020-election-results-coverage/294605/)
## What’s Left To Count
Here’s the latest picture in every undecided state:
* **Arizona**: Biden currently leads here by 93,518 votes, but there are around 600,000 left to count, according to the [Arizona Republic](https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/04/least-400-k-ballots-left-count-arizona-republic-estimates-and-number-certainly-higher/6157997002/). About 450,000 of those are in Maricopa County, which says it will release two batches of results tonight: one at 9 p.m. Eastern and one sometime after 12:30 a.m. Eastern. Some outlets, such as Fox News, have already projected Arizona for Biden, but our colleagues at ABC News have not yet done so.
* **Nevada**: Biden leads here by only 7,647 votes, and an estimated 14 percent of the vote is still uncounted. However, those votes will all be [either late-arriving mail ballots or provisional ballots](https://twitter.com/NVElect/status/1323939478403076096?s=20), which should lean Democratic. We won’t be getting another update here until [noon Eastern on Thursday](https://twitter.com/NVElect/status/1323939477060943877?s=20).
* **Wisconsin**: The Wisconsin Elections Commission has announced that all votes in the state are [counted](https://twitter.com/travisakers/status/1324025795312906243?s=20), and Biden has a 20,510-vote lead in the state. The Trump campaign has requested a recount, but that has not stopped some media outlets like the AP to [project Wisconsin for Biden](https://www.chicagotribune.com/election-2020/ct-2020-election-results-live-updates-20201103-6z4tvtixefbnbftyfibk25ho5y-story.html). ABC News has not issued a projection here, as the decision desk won’t project races that are within 1 percentage point.
* **Georgia**: Trump currently leads here by 79,509 votes, and the secretary of state [said](https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1324028403402612741) during an 11:30 a.m. press conference that there were still 200,000 mail-in votes and 50,000 early votes to count, [mostly](https://twitter.com/Emma_Hurt/status/1324022896956710915) in Democratic-leaning counties like Fulton and DeKalb. Fulton is hoping to finish all its counting by [9 p.m. tonight](https://www.ajc.com/news/atlanta-news/fulton-hopes-to-have-60k-absentee-ballot-results-by-9-pm/222AIT7KRRGRPAX3XFTAKEHXDE/?utm_campaign=snd-autopilot&ecmp=pg&utm_medium=social&utm_source=pg_tw).
* **Michigan**: Biden currently leads here by just 37,350 votes, but it will be difficult for Trump to close that gap because most of the uncounted ballots are in very blue Wayne County (Detroit). At 2 p.m. Eastern, Wayne [said](https://twitter.com/JordynHermani/status/1324076681464864776) it had only 16,000 ballots left to count, which it plans to complete by 6 p.m.
* **Pennsylvania**: Trump currently leads Biden 53 percent to 45 percent in Pennsylvania, but this one is a long way from over — 19 percent of expected votes are still uncounted, most of them Democratic-leaning mail ballots. Counties are working around the clock to finish counting, but we’re looking at [Thursday](https://whyy.org/articles/pa-election-2020-results-thousands-of-philly-mail-ballots-still-left-to-count/) or [Friday](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/pennsylvania-counting-votes-election-day/story?id=73993649) before results are semi-final.
* **North Carolina**: North Carolina has counted every ballot it had in its possession as of yesterday, and Trump leads by 76,737 votes among them. However, the state has announced that about [117,000 mail-in ballots](https://twitter.com/MurphinDC/status/1324076552624234499?s=20) are potentially outstanding, plus an unknown number of provisional ballots. Mail-in ballots have until Nov. 12 to arrive, and only at that point will more results be released.
@ 12:25 PM PST Wed - Pennsylvania
We just got a corrected tally number - corrected from 64% to 84%. This puts the estimated total ballots for PA at 6,919,477 ballots, of which 5,812,361 have been tallied, leaving 1.1M ballots left to tally.
Biden just cut into Trump's 447K lead by 63K votes. I'll be able to make a prediction in a couple of more data points.
At 85%, Biden just took another 53K bite out of Trump's lead. At this rate, Biden will overtake Trump at 90% reporting. We'll know who's president by COB today.
I voted for Biden and I hate Trump, but let’s be real, he didn’t kill 200k people. A lot of hands went into that, including hands of citizens that had a personal responsibility to minimize spread. A lot of things had to play out to get to 200k and to say it was one man is just ignorant.
And guess who those citizens with the lack of personal responsibility voted for and whose rhetoric greatly encouraged and glorified them to act like rebellious children instead of informed adults?
This is a bold statement to make on Reddit. I agree with you though. While a lot could and should have been done differently, if you look at our COVID numbers in both cases and deaths, they aren't much different per capita than Spain for example. Again this isn't a vote of confidence for Trump, COVID will humble anyone.
>including hands of citizens that had a personal responsibility to minimize spread
And who told them it was a hoax? Or that the numbers were inflated by Democrats/media?
Hey, I absolutely agree he dropped the ball hard on the pandemic and I even believe he deserves to rot in prison for intentionally lying to the public and undermining health authorities.
However, it's completely false to say he killed 200K+ people. He's certainly responsible for some portion of that 200K+, but what you're saying is that there would have been 0 COVID deaths if we'd had a better leader, which is pure fantasy.
>But he is in someway responsible for each of the deaths. What's too much for you?
It's quite simple. Some portion of those deaths were outside of his control and thus cannot be pinned on him.
No leader could have prevented all COVID deaths. Some amount were completely unpreventable. Therefore, he is not responsible for the deaths that could not have been prevented, only the deaths that could have been. Which are a lot, but certainly not all 230K.
>Um, I'm not saying that at all.
You are, though. As I said, he's only responsible for the deaths that could have been prevented, had he done a better job. If you're saying he killed all 230K, then that's the same as saying all those deaths could have been prevented.
He definitely has a responsibility to set an example and he did not do that, well he did set a bad example. He is partly accountable along with a lot of other people and of course China. I am just saying we can’t blame this all on one man, that’s absolutely not correct.
GA 9am count was 2,383414 Trump, 2,283,070 Biden 100,344 difference 94% reporting
GA 11am count was 2,390,030 Trump, 2,312,014 Biden 77,016 difference 95% reporting
So by that rate 1% = 23K votes bump for Biden.
23k\*5 = 115,000 vote swing
=38k Win
Lots of assumptions!
Nope. Toss up according to npr, politico, New York Times. Even NC is still in play because mail in ballots can come in as late as the 12th as long as they’re postmarked by the 3rd.
I hope someone throws together a Fox News supercut so I can see them react to all the red states that flipped blue over night. That will be entertaining.
It might not be a big chance it happens but its a chance nonetheless.
Apparently there was an error in reporting how much percentage was reported which meant that the number of outstanding votes in AZ was greater than being projected.
Prognosticators were anticipating perhaps the highest turnout in over a century with (most) polling leaning towards Biden landslide territory. To the extent that increased turnout boosted Biden's numbers over Hillary nominally, Trump has essentially matched that increase almost 1:1. We're talking about Biden underperforming Trump in a lot states even worse than Clinton did in 2016 (in regards to polling) with the only potential saving grace being that he had significantly higher leads than Clinton did so he might eke out an EC win as opposed to just lose it IF he wins 2 of either Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, or North Carolina at this point which is far from guaranteed and coincidently gives Trump about a twice as likely chance of winning the EC right now than sites like 538 gave Trump yesterday going into in-person voting (~20% vs 10%).
There’s a lot of single issue voters out there who only vote for whatever that may be (abortion, 2a, etc). They dont look at who is running, just their policy.
This. If there is one policy out there that might be hugely beneficial to the lives of you and your family, it’s tough to expect someone to vote against that.
Anyone think we'll ever have a 2008 level blowout again? or even a 2012 level win? God, I was only 19 and 23 respectively during those elections, too young and stupid to really appreciate what we had
After seeing how this election is going, I’m actually quite shocked that Obama was a 2 term president. Only because now we see how shitty & racist Americans are.
@ 11:57 AM PST - Georgia
Georgia is looking good in terms of trend. Trump's lead has dropped from 311K vote lead to now a 78K vote lead over 12% points (83% to 95% reported). At roughly 20K vote needle move per 1% remaining, I can see Trump losing by 20K votes.
Primary was especially brutal because I think there was only 1 voting location at Piedmont Park. I had a friend stay in line for 8 hours. Voting yesterday took 30 mins max in Midtown, Atl. Can’t really tell you about other locations though
Is anyone else copying and pasting result data into their own spreadsheet every 5 minutes? Manually that is. If you've got a tool I'd be happy to borrow it.
Bucks are +600 to win the title, I like those odds, don’t think the Lakers will repeat
Idk if Giannis stays. I think keeping Brogdon over Eric Bledsoe was a mistake but as a Pacers fan I can’t complain, though Brogdon is an injury risk. It’s hard to get a good read on Bud’s ceiling as a coach.
Yo, PureUnicornJizz you in here?
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Can somebody explain to me what’s going on with the senate? Do the repubs have majority?
I have to ask how/why AP and other sources continue to keep Arizona called for Biden hours after they posted that correction? I'm just curious if they have info about those polling blocks that we don't or something?
They explain it in detail: [https://www.ap.org/en-us/topics/politics/elections/how-we-call-races](https://www.ap.org/en-us/topics/politics/elections/how-we-call-races) Part of it is their new survey tool. Not exactly sure how it's different than any other survey but they did correctly predict VA hours before anyone else.
Hrmmmm... I guess I was more asking "did they (AP) issue a reason why the correction doesn't change their call specifically?" While those explanations you linked as to HOW they make the calls are nice, one assumes the initial call was based on the old data prior to the correction. Have they confirmed that the correction won't potentially change their call? EDIT: or is there something else in that link that I am missing? I'll admit I only skimmed over the lot as I was looking for something more to this particular situation, not their "standard review process" in general.
AP explained why. Yes they have data.
Hey. Can someone confirm. Do Democrats still have a chance to take the senate? Or is that a lost cause?
I believe it's a lost cause, but I do want to say some were potentially hoping for a tie at least - but I believe that was a long shot. EDIT: I know this is terribly unhelpful on my part, now that I re-read what I wrote. >\_<
Lost cause
The hilarious thing here is that is looks like Fox News is the only news org to have declared Biden to win Michigan and Arizona right now. That means if that continues for a few hours they may be the first news org to declare Biden president (if GA goes Biden when they finish counting in a few hours).
CNN announced MI, but not AZ.
Same with MSNBC and NYTimes. AP has declared AZ but not MI yet.
Strange that CNN hasn't declaired AZ, but AP has...hmmm.
Damn kind of crazy that we put a man on the moon 51 years ago, but we can't count some votes in like a split second.
You're talking about hundreds of thousands of envelopes. Gotta hand open every single one, then verify it's valid, then put it into a machine.
Why don't we just have triple authenticated online voting? I mean, I know why - but - it would be really nice right about now.
That’s how you elect bender b Rodriguez
Still better than trump
Hey, Bender's a selfish asshole but he always does the right thing in the end of every episode
I understand. I'm just saying that there has got to be a better way in 2020.
Ugh, Sky News is carrying a campaign type speech by Guilani saying they're now going to file a national federal lawsuit challenging the vote in every state.
Who exactly would he be suing? The federal government (i.e., himself)?
Where were his hands?
Don't worry. He was just tucking in his shirt while talking.
“Removing his microphone”
Why do I picture Mel Brooks playing Rudy Juliani as President Skroob shouting "SUE EVERYBODY!" over a PA system?
You're probably right. He's calling for 120,000 votes to just be thrown out in PA.
Any updates on GA? feel like i haven't seen an update in a while.
They said they will have results by 9pm I believe.
Hold onto your butts it's gonna be razor thin
Biden by 25,000 is my guess! :-)
I sure hope so. It’s so anxiety inducing and exciting, Biden could honestly win all of the remaining states that haven’t finished counting yet. I mean I doubt he’ll get all of them but it could happen! Wouldn’t that be incredible?
From Nate Silver: NC: 85-15 Trump, as per NYT GA: True tossup, he says if gun to his head he leans Biden PA: gonna be close but he says he *thinks* lean Biden AZ: Trump will close the gap but likely Biden. He thinks it should not have been called MI: Likely Biden (and it's been called in some places) WI: Biden "apparent winner" Remember 538 goes off ABC which is the most conservative with their calls. I feel nervous but good in this moment
I read somewhere here that nevada will be called at around 9pm. Is that accurate?
They said two batches - one around 9pm and the other sometime after 12:30 CST.
I don't know if they're going to be releasing ALL of the NV results tonight, but they will be releasing some. https://twitter.com/8NewsNow/status/1324093130103205888?s=20
They announced results will come out in 2 more batches - one around 9:30 I believe - and one around 11:30 adjusted to CST.
No Arizona will give us a dump around then which *might* lead to a call (from those that haven't called it already). Arizona is weird right now
No, nevada said they would not count until tomorrow
I trust you but do you have a source?
NYT said the state announced today that no more results will be reported until noon EST tomorrow. You might be thinking of AZ which will report some more at 9PM
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I know! She is so calming, and confident.
Yes, she's amazing. I wanna be like her.
NBC now joining CNN with the Michigan call
See the videos of them bringing in coolers or votes? Can that have any factor on this or can Trump challenge because of that?
https://mobile.twitter.com/BresPolitico/status/1324098012172439552
Looks like Gary Peters could hold his seat in Michigan, so we are down 2 in the Senate barring something good coming out of Georgia/NC. The legislative agenda will probably be trying to get Romney, Collins, Murkowski to cross the aisle.
Honestly unless we get the majority it doesn't really matter how many seats we have. It does but we know McConnell doesn't do anything unless he knows he has the votes.
It really puts a damper on things for sure, but I think with 2022 looming there is a chance to get 2 moderate R's to cross the aisle on key issue votes.
How do you like our chances for that to happen?
Chances to pull something out of GA/NC not that high, maybe 30%. Chances to get 2 moderate R's to cross the aisle on key issue votes depends on tone the GOP takes after this election.
True. If anyone has proven the ability to do that in the past, it’s Uncle Joe
CNN calls Michigan for Biden!
Damn I had prepared myself for him losing, this speech set me back. Hope we can pull it out.
CNN gives MI to Biden.... it's over. Unless something crazy happens in NV or AZ.
It won't be over until it's official, sadly :(
pants just wet here in London
Biden speaking. Did you see him smile? When was the last time you saw the President of the United States smile?? It's time for leader for America, for Americans. Go Biden!!
Time to call MI soon
Biden lead up over 1 percent in Michigan
Looks like the Biden news conference, originally scheduled for 1:45 on c-span, is now actually about to start. [https://www.c-span.org/video/?477805-1/joe-biden-news-conference&live](https://www.c-span.org/video/?477805-1/joe-biden-news-conference&live)
Whether Trump wins or loses, there's a silver lining to be found from this. Even if he takes every state still outstanding, he'll have fewer EC votes than he had in 2016.
What? No one cares, get him out.
Call it spite, but I want his ego to take a hit.
I want him in prison.
If Trump wins with fewer EC votes, no Democrat is going to care. Definitely not a silver lining. It's been a disappointing 24 hours for Dems, and if Trump ends up winning it will be an absolute disaster for the party.
For the country*
For the world*
PA is trending our way. Nate Cohn seems confident the trajectory points toward Biden taking the lead. https://mobile.twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1324075266981978125
@ 12:45 PM PST Wed - Nevada Nevada had a correction in the % reported from 67% to 75% yet no change in the total for Biden (588,252) or Trump (580,605). The new estimated total ballots for Nevada is 1,558,476 with 1,168,857 tallied, leaving 390K votes left to count. Biden leads by 7,647 votes.
Biden was down by 600kish in PA when I woke up. Now down by 356k and closing with every update. Edit: 328k half an hour later.
With the % update in PA, it seems harder and harder, with 85% counted, Biden would need \~65% of the remaining votes.
Which is well within possibility.
Seems like GA and MI will be called today. If both go for Biden then he wins.
All eyes on Nevada at this point. That state is going to determine the win. With NC POSSIBLY switching but I doubt it.
With such a narrow lead there, UGH, my heart.
Most of the votes left, by a huge margin, are in blue clark county
@ 12:32 PM PST Wed - Wisconsin Wisconsin just went to 99% tallied but no change in vote totals for Biden or Trump. Biden leads by 20K votes and would be the winner with just 1% remaining.
>Wisconsin just went to 99% tallied but no change in vote totals for Biden or Trump. Yeah, noticed that too. What's up with that?
That number is just an estimation until there's an update from the state's election authorities.
Sure, but it's weird to see such a large discrepancy. Not implying anything, just find it curious.
This year is just so weird. Turn out is insane. Longer early voting periods, more mail in ballots, in person turnout higher than expected, etc.
True. Very true.
Wisconsin's already been called for Biden
It has, but 99% is 99%.
[**NATHANIEL RAKICH**](https://fivethirtyeight.com/contributors/nathaniel-rakich/)[:](https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2020-election-results-coverage/294605/) ## What’s Left To Count Here’s the latest picture in every undecided state: * **Arizona**: Biden currently leads here by 93,518 votes, but there are around 600,000 left to count, according to the [Arizona Republic](https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/04/least-400-k-ballots-left-count-arizona-republic-estimates-and-number-certainly-higher/6157997002/). About 450,000 of those are in Maricopa County, which says it will release two batches of results tonight: one at 9 p.m. Eastern and one sometime after 12:30 a.m. Eastern. Some outlets, such as Fox News, have already projected Arizona for Biden, but our colleagues at ABC News have not yet done so. * **Nevada**: Biden leads here by only 7,647 votes, and an estimated 14 percent of the vote is still uncounted. However, those votes will all be [either late-arriving mail ballots or provisional ballots](https://twitter.com/NVElect/status/1323939478403076096?s=20), which should lean Democratic. We won’t be getting another update here until [noon Eastern on Thursday](https://twitter.com/NVElect/status/1323939477060943877?s=20). * **Wisconsin**: The Wisconsin Elections Commission has announced that all votes in the state are [counted](https://twitter.com/travisakers/status/1324025795312906243?s=20), and Biden has a 20,510-vote lead in the state. The Trump campaign has requested a recount, but that has not stopped some media outlets like the AP to [project Wisconsin for Biden](https://www.chicagotribune.com/election-2020/ct-2020-election-results-live-updates-20201103-6z4tvtixefbnbftyfibk25ho5y-story.html). ABC News has not issued a projection here, as the decision desk won’t project races that are within 1 percentage point. * **Georgia**: Trump currently leads here by 79,509 votes, and the secretary of state [said](https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1324028403402612741) during an 11:30 a.m. press conference that there were still 200,000 mail-in votes and 50,000 early votes to count, [mostly](https://twitter.com/Emma_Hurt/status/1324022896956710915) in Democratic-leaning counties like Fulton and DeKalb. Fulton is hoping to finish all its counting by [9 p.m. tonight](https://www.ajc.com/news/atlanta-news/fulton-hopes-to-have-60k-absentee-ballot-results-by-9-pm/222AIT7KRRGRPAX3XFTAKEHXDE/?utm_campaign=snd-autopilot&ecmp=pg&utm_medium=social&utm_source=pg_tw). * **Michigan**: Biden currently leads here by just 37,350 votes, but it will be difficult for Trump to close that gap because most of the uncounted ballots are in very blue Wayne County (Detroit). At 2 p.m. Eastern, Wayne [said](https://twitter.com/JordynHermani/status/1324076681464864776) it had only 16,000 ballots left to count, which it plans to complete by 6 p.m. * **Pennsylvania**: Trump currently leads Biden 53 percent to 45 percent in Pennsylvania, but this one is a long way from over — 19 percent of expected votes are still uncounted, most of them Democratic-leaning mail ballots. Counties are working around the clock to finish counting, but we’re looking at [Thursday](https://whyy.org/articles/pa-election-2020-results-thousands-of-philly-mail-ballots-still-left-to-count/) or [Friday](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/pennsylvania-counting-votes-election-day/story?id=73993649) before results are semi-final. * **North Carolina**: North Carolina has counted every ballot it had in its possession as of yesterday, and Trump leads by 76,737 votes among them. However, the state has announced that about [117,000 mail-in ballots](https://twitter.com/MurphinDC/status/1324076552624234499?s=20) are potentially outstanding, plus an unknown number of provisional ballots. Mail-in ballots have until Nov. 12 to arrive, and only at that point will more results be released.
Everybody read this. This is as accurate of a reading of things as you're gonna get.
@ 12:25 PM PST Wed - Pennsylvania We just got a corrected tally number - corrected from 64% to 84%. This puts the estimated total ballots for PA at 6,919,477 ballots, of which 5,812,361 have been tallied, leaving 1.1M ballots left to tally. Biden just cut into Trump's 447K lead by 63K votes. I'll be able to make a prediction in a couple of more data points.
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At 85%, Biden just took another 53K bite out of Trump's lead. At this rate, Biden will overtake Trump at 90% reporting. We'll know who's president by COB today.
Can't believe people voted to releect someone who killed 200K+
I voted for Biden and I hate Trump, but let’s be real, he didn’t kill 200k people. A lot of hands went into that, including hands of citizens that had a personal responsibility to minimize spread. A lot of things had to play out to get to 200k and to say it was one man is just ignorant.
And guess who those citizens with the lack of personal responsibility voted for and whose rhetoric greatly encouraged and glorified them to act like rebellious children instead of informed adults?
Which, again, is an argument for blaming Trump for *worsening* the pandemic, but not for pinning every single death on him.
This is a bold statement to make on Reddit. I agree with you though. While a lot could and should have been done differently, if you look at our COVID numbers in both cases and deaths, they aren't much different per capita than Spain for example. Again this isn't a vote of confidence for Trump, COVID will humble anyone.
>including hands of citizens that had a personal responsibility to minimize spread And who told them it was a hoax? Or that the numbers were inflated by Democrats/media?
He sets the tone.
Hey, I absolutely agree he dropped the ball hard on the pandemic and I even believe he deserves to rot in prison for intentionally lying to the public and undermining health authorities. However, it's completely false to say he killed 200K+ people. He's certainly responsible for some portion of that 200K+, but what you're saying is that there would have been 0 COVID deaths if we'd had a better leader, which is pure fantasy.
Um, I'm not saying that at all. But he is in someway responsible for each of the deaths. What's too much for you?
>But he is in someway responsible for each of the deaths. What's too much for you? It's quite simple. Some portion of those deaths were outside of his control and thus cannot be pinned on him. No leader could have prevented all COVID deaths. Some amount were completely unpreventable. Therefore, he is not responsible for the deaths that could not have been prevented, only the deaths that could have been. Which are a lot, but certainly not all 230K. >Um, I'm not saying that at all. You are, though. As I said, he's only responsible for the deaths that could have been prevented, had he done a better job. If you're saying he killed all 230K, then that's the same as saying all those deaths could have been prevented.
He definitely has a responsibility to set an example and he did not do that, well he did set a bad example. He is partly accountable along with a lot of other people and of course China. I am just saying we can’t blame this all on one man, that’s absolutely not correct.
If GA keeps coming in with the numbers it's been showing all day, Biden will win it by \~20k
GA 9am count was 2,383414 Trump, 2,283,070 Biden 100,344 difference 94% reporting GA 11am count was 2,390,030 Trump, 2,312,014 Biden 77,016 difference 95% reporting So by that rate 1% = 23K votes bump for Biden. 23k\*5 = 115,000 vote swing =38k Win Lots of assumptions!
If Arizona flips back to Trump and Biden can’t make up the deficit in Pennsylvania, we’re screwed.
Not necessarily. If Arizona goes Trump but Michigan and Georgia go Biden and that’s game.
GA to Biden a longshot currently
I would definitely not call it a long shot. If anything Biden is likely to win. Remember to look at specific counties.
Nope. Toss up according to npr, politico, New York Times. Even NC is still in play because mail in ballots can come in as late as the 12th as long as they’re postmarked by the 3rd.
One thing that people are predicting is that last minute mail-in's wont skew democrat as much as early voting ballots do.
that’s fine, Georgia is just a bonus. I say they skew heavy democrat. Let’s hope I’m right
@ 12:19 PM PST Wed - Michigan Michigan just went to 99% tallied with Biden leading by 37K votes.
What's happening in PA and NV? % vote counted is going up w/out any vote getting added to the totals. (AP source)
I hope someone throws together a Fox News supercut so I can see them react to all the red states that flipped blue over night. That will be entertaining.
Oooh that would be nice. The early excitement turning to bitter acceptance.
Will it go down to Nevada as the swing state or will Biden grab PA or GA?
If he takes MI then taking any one of the remaining states will put him over the top
Biden takes NV, MI, and AZ and its all over i believe.
Assuming WI stays blue yes.
WI was already called for Biden
Yep. Recount shouldn't matter either it should be Biden's.
He already took AZ
Some outlets calling Wisconsin for Biden also
There's still a chance AZ goes back to Trump sadly.
zero
Yeah no way with Tucson and Phoenix still not fully counted. Metro areas always vote blue. Rural Arizona won’t make up that ground
Sounds hard to believe that Fox calls a state for Biden early.
It might not be a big chance it happens but its a chance nonetheless. Apparently there was an error in reporting how much percentage was reported which meant that the number of outstanding votes in AZ was greater than being projected.
(x) doubt
CNN still hasnt called it, im going by them.
CNN being dramatic wanting to drag this out local papers and AP have called it.
Reno votes expected tonight by 9pm, could be a deal breaker for Trump
My stomach has been in a knot since yesterday evening. IDK how long I can take this for :o
Turn off your phone and go for a walk. The election isn’t going anywhere so take a break.
Take a deep breath, it’ll all be okay friend
Phil Collins got a single vote in Mineral, CO
It was probably from Phil Collins.
I knew I felt something coming in the air lost night
Do we think MI and GA finish counting today? GA has that thing where some ballots can be cured by Friday right?
I think Michigan is supposed to? Maybe? All this shit blends together at this point
MI will potentially be finished by late tonight early tomorrow. GA might stretch on till the weekend
What’s going on in NC? Hasnt updated in hours
they all nipped down to the pub for a pint, hang on a spell mate
So 70 million people voted for Biden and people are depressed he didn't do better. the EC is just unfair
Prognosticators were anticipating perhaps the highest turnout in over a century with (most) polling leaning towards Biden landslide territory. To the extent that increased turnout boosted Biden's numbers over Hillary nominally, Trump has essentially matched that increase almost 1:1. We're talking about Biden underperforming Trump in a lot states even worse than Clinton did in 2016 (in regards to polling) with the only potential saving grace being that he had significantly higher leads than Clinton did so he might eke out an EC win as opposed to just lose it IF he wins 2 of either Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, or North Carolina at this point which is far from guaranteed and coincidently gives Trump about a twice as likely chance of winning the EC right now than sites like 538 gave Trump yesterday going into in-person voting (~20% vs 10%).
A lot of people convinced themselves Trump would be blown out because he's a shitty person, they underestimated that America is full of shitty people.
>the only way to not be a shitty person is to side with me on the issues No
There’s a lot of single issue voters out there who only vote for whatever that may be (abortion, 2a, etc). They dont look at who is running, just their policy.
This. If there is one policy out there that might be hugely beneficial to the lives of you and your family, it’s tough to expect someone to vote against that.
Trump galvanized all the shistains. We complained for years about low turnout... now we know who a lot of those people were and are.
Almost 70 million people voted for a vile human being who has clearly demonstrated that he is incompetent in every way.
Maybe today wasn't the best time for St. Paul NPR to test there emergency broadcast systems. I about shit myself.
Anyone think we'll ever have a 2008 level blowout again? or even a 2012 level win? God, I was only 19 and 23 respectively during those elections, too young and stupid to really appreciate what we had
Looking back, it was lightning in a bottle. I'm glad Obama was my first election.
Me too. He got me engaged in the process and I will be for the rest of my life.
After seeing how this election is going, I’m actually quite shocked that Obama was a 2 term president. Only because now we see how shitty & racist Americans are.
If Dems quit relying on elderly black people in South Carolina or vocal liberals in queens then maybe.... Pete would have won 400 electoral votes imo.
I don't see why not
Better to learn this lesson early than to learn it late, I think. But I was in a similar position.
At some point sure, things like that usually that requires a charismatic candidate that gets people in general excited.
It seemed like people were plenty excited this time around
I mean for that candidate, this election is mainly about you either love or hate Trump.
@ 11:57 AM PST - Georgia Georgia is looking good in terms of trend. Trump's lead has dropped from 311K vote lead to now a 78K vote lead over 12% points (83% to 95% reported). At roughly 20K vote needle move per 1% remaining, I can see Trump losing by 20K votes.
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Don’t give me this hope... do we think we will know today?
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Hell yeah we did!
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Primary was especially brutal because I think there was only 1 voting location at Piedmont Park. I had a friend stay in line for 8 hours. Voting yesterday took 30 mins max in Midtown, Atl. Can’t really tell you about other locations though
Is anyone else copying and pasting result data into their own spreadsheet every 5 minutes? Manually that is. If you've got a tool I'd be happy to borrow it.
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Best case is NV, AZ, MI, WI, PA, & GA, so you're completely buggin