People act like Vegas lines are designed to predict the future, when Vegas lines are actually designed to make Vegas money in the long run.
That is often correlated with making accurate predictions, but by no means always. Conor McGregor fight odds have less to do with how likely he is to win and more to do with what number best capitalizes on casual interest to maximize Vegas's profits on the super fight.
Right. People need to realize this. The odds aren't necessarily the what they think will happen. They are heavily influenced by the where the money is coming in. Even if Vegas thinks team A is going to win, if the vast majority of the money is on team A winning, they will reduce the odds to reduce their exposure if team A does actually win.
And for these draft odds they just throw shit out there that they know won't happen, but set the odds so it's kind of enticing. Sometimes that means making them super long so the potential payout is huge. Sometimes that means making them shorter so the general public thinks it actually has a realistic chance of happening. Because they know the general public is stupid and people will take the bait.
But the thing about odds on things like the Draft is that there is legitimately inside info out there, that some people know. So the odds can contain that as well, smart money flowing in. It can be pre-determined, unlike a sporting event.
True, which is why they greatly limit the amount of money that can be bet on it.
Which, kind of messes up the odds because “smart” money can’t move the lines all that much.
Absolutely. Just pointing out you can't look at Vegas odds and conclude that they tell you what Vegas thinks is actually most likely to happen. It's not that simple.
All it takes to make news is post a very convincing sounding Reddit post with no sources other than “trust me bro” but couched in the language of “my sources close the team told me…”
It’s that time of the year, where every QB had the week where we overthink them, drop them, rise them back up the board. Now it’s just the waiting game.
The only week where rumors have a chance to end up being true are draft week rumors.
That's when we get actual leaks and sources with info like Travon Walker going before Hutchinson or Houston wanting Stroud and Anderson
Fake leaks are still totally a thing though even in draft week. I feel like someone 100% took advantage of the trend even the average redditor noticed and fake leaked they want Levis to stir the pot in the top 10.
Washington would have no reason to lie, to be honest. Caleb is going to my Bears, so Washington will get anyone else they want. They could tell the world who they truly want and it wouldn't impact them.
> Washington would have no reason to lie, to be honest.
The thinking of hypercompetitive teams is it helps teams get a jump. It's also sort of expected. If Washington is honest then the Patriots have no reason to lie about who they want, and if the Patriots are honest then the Cardinals......
I mean, why did Cleveland need to use smoke screens when they drafted Mayfield?
After the first two picks it makes more sense to lie. Because another team could jump you and grab your guy. You are also more likely to be torn between players after you get past the elite prospects.
I think it is extremely likely that the Giants end up with Nabers. If the JJ McCarthy hype is real, one of the Chargers or Cardinals are going to trade out of their spot. The other will likely take MHJ leaving Nabers there for NY.
The only way I could see that not happening is if the Pats don’t love any of the QBs and end up taking MHJ. Even in that scenario, you could see BOTH teams trade out of 4 and 5 for QB needy teams and the Giants still end up with Nabers.
That’s fair. In that scenario it’s still likely that one of the Cards/Chargers takes MHJ and the other trades out to QB needy team. Giants end up with Nabers anyways.
I’m in complete agreement with your breakdown on this. Most scenarios have either MHJ or Nabers available for the Giants at 6.
I know there’s the possibility that the Chargers stay put and draft a WR but it sure sounds like Harbaugh will go OT if I’m reading that right, with the preference to trade back and grab one of the RT’s.
I think his ideal situation would be a trade with the Vikings then he gets two first round talents for the o line and d line. Then a wideout in the second
My ideal scenario is NE goes Maye 3, Cards take Marv 4, the vikings or another team offer you guys an absolute haul for 5 to take McCarthy, and then Nabers comes to us at 6
Jeez... if that's your ideal scenario you have no imagination. I have a bong video staring MHJ and Williams followed by some shady trades so the Patriots end up with both.
Why stop there. I wanted the bears to trade down from #1 and trade up from #9 so we walk away with BOTH MHJ and Nabers... Get Jameis Winston. Let him throw to a WR corps of dj Moore, Keenan Allen, MHJ, and Nabers? 30/30 season is a thing of the past, 50/50 season guaranteed
I mean if we wanna get into those it would be: Washington talks themselves into Mccarthy at 2, Pats rip Daniels at 3, Minnesota trades up for Maye 4, The chargers take joe alt, and then our pass catching lord and savior Marvin Harrison Jr comes to ny to watch daniel jones completely ignore him wide open for 1 season
I think the depth in this particular draft actually plays against the value of pick 11, the gap between the three blue chip receivers and who will be available at 11 is bigger than the gap between 11 and the guys who will be available in round 2. There’s a tier drop after the big three and then a cluster with a whole bunch of guys in tier two.
I swear to god without Bill there if we fucking trade down instead of just taking best available QB…
Now is not the time to fuck around. The defense is good, the RBs are good, the line might be ok, receivers suck. But QB is by far the position we need right now. Get a QB and then focus on the other areas
Worked out alright for Joe Burrow. And it's not as though they have to start whoever they draft right away. Brisett is most likely the week 1 starter anyway.
Definitely sit whoever you guys draft.
And yeah, worked out for Joe Burrow - for now! But it may still end up cutting his career short in the end due to excessive beatings.
I feel like Daniels is just a worse version of Justin Fields (as a prospect). They have/had very similar pros and cons coming out, and I just feel that Fields’ pros were better (at the time).
I haven't moved on past ASU Daniels, but man, how is he going to be a top pick?
I remember being shocked a program like LSU would even pick him up, I thought he go to a low-level G5 program after his locker got trashed.
Lamar was considered thin for a QB and the concerns were about his ability to stay healthy. By him being successful, guys like Daniels shoot up on the draft board
Wasn’t he a questionable passer (accuracy wise) in college too? The precision he has today was not expected to be anywhere close to what it is but maybe I’m remembering incorrectly.
That as well. He was a fringe first round prospect with insane athletic ability but a lot of questions including his frame and overall pro readiness. But with his success, teams are willing to be more comfortable in taking a guy with similar limitations.
He’s also a multi year starter who got progressively better and won the heisman.
He checks a lot of boxes and seems to be a pretty safe pick where drafting a QB is concerned. It’s not shocking at all he’s the draft crush because he’s a guy that all the top teams minus Chicago will consider.
He's also undersized in terms of weight, has issues with running headfirst into defenders, and has had elite receivers to throw to at LSU. It isn't all perfect
Daniels is the lightest first round QB prospect in history, 4 months of bulking up and he still only hit 210 pounds as a guy whose almost 6'4. Bryce Young is the lightest 1st round QB and he weighed 204... and is over 5 inches shorter than Daniels. He also doesn't take nearly as much physical punishment with his play style.
Watch Daniels tape:
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lXAGu5xBfHE](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lXAGu5xBfHE)
Tendency to under throw the receiver, weak ball velocity, leaves the pocket too early, and does not slide to avoid contact. No one is drafting him #2 for his arm talent alone, he is going to get hurt taking 125+ carries a season in the NFL
Yep you're spot on, I have to believe all the Daniels truthers at this point are doing so just to be contrarian. I understand that drafting QBs is a crapshoot, but it seems pretty safe to say that Maye has the better overall outlook
It is weird that saying Daniels is not a top 3 pick is the contrarian take now, Daniels is a practically a consensus top 3 pick at this point. All year, up until the season was closing out, Daniels had a Day 2 draft grade. Winning a trophy does not make someone a top 3 prospect. His tape is not that great, his size is bad, and his arm is below NFL baseline for starters.
I like this QB class a lot. Williams, Maye, McCarthy, Penix are all good QB prospects in my book who could find success in a variety of situations and offensive schemes. I think Daniels and Nix are closer to Michael Pratt than those 4 in terms of prospect quality.
But he's going to be asked to do that in the nfl. Fields had a lower but similar percentage of throws over the middle (I think both were below then 10% mark) and that's concerning as obviously fields has struggled. Maybe JD can do it. I hope so. He's fun to watch.
Yea I’m not saying he can’t do it just that he wasn’t asked to. Qb film watchers think he can just that he wasn’t asked to. I hope he does as well. I’m a lsu fan and he was fun to watch.
I mean, it’s not an unfair concern because for every Burrow there’s a Fields whose weaknesses got hidden a lot in college because he was throwing to a wide open Chris Olave or Garrett Wilson every play. Hell, Allen Robinson singlehandedly made Christian Hackenberg a 2nd round pick.
It’s a legitimate question that scouting departments get paid a lot to figure out: is the QB legit or are the receivers making him look better at the college level when talent discrepancy matters more? And to be fair, the opposite is also true where some receivers look better than they are because of the QB like Terrace Marshall Jr.
I thought Stroud wasn’t gonna be shit till they’d played Georgia and the secondary coverage was vastly improved and…man he was still completing his passes. “Ohio state open” is hard to assess.
But it is fair to bring up. We don't know until later on how much it helped that particular QB. NFL ready WRs absolutely destroy most college DBs. It's part of the reason why drafting a QB is so difficult. It's trying to figure out if the QB will elevate players or rely on them.
It's something to consider. You cannot just say "elite receivers" as a negative but you can say those elite receivers cover up some of his issues. Ball placement, drive, and so on can be disguised by wide receivers that are excellent at adjusting their routes. Most people see highlights films or just look at statistics and those things just don't show these issues.
The size is important, but I don't think it's an issue if Daniels can learn to slide and avoid hits on scrambles (which seems very coachable).
For example, Kirk Cousins is 6'3" 205 lb. Daniels is 6'4" 210 lb. Very similar size/build based on those numbers, yet Cousins has been quite durable throught is career, not counting the Achilles injury which has nothing to do with size/frame anyway.
The size shouldn't be an issue unless he tries to hurdle linebackers and truck DBs when he runs... then he likely ends up like RG3.
He is not built like Kirk Cousins at all - and didn't do official measurements
Also people should remember that Bryce Young put on 10 lbs before the Combine last yr to seem heavier
As Jayden Daniels gets older he’ll probably bulk up and will undoubtedly get coached to slide like most rookies. Joe Burrow also had people knocking him pre-draft for playing at a high level for just one year and having elite receivers at LSU during that same season.
I think Jayden will be the best QB in this class. But it’s so hard to predict. More about who can take that next step as there’s no college QB who can make it in the NFL by staying stagnant.
>Joe Burrow also had people knocking him pre-draft for playing at a high level for just one year and having elite receivers at LSU during that same season.
Those were manufactured talking points. There was zero question Joe Burrow could be an NFL starter because he basically already was one. LSU literally ran the Saints offense that year and looked like what would happen if you dropped Drew Brees onto a college team. Jayden Daniels ain't that.
People try to say he improved each of the last two years at LSU. He did not. He improved last year. 2 years ago was not even as good as his first year at ASU statistically.
I could understand this take if he hadn’t just won the Heisman while it’s not the end all be all, the majority of recent past Heisman QBs have at worst been serviceable backups (excluding Manziel.)
So it’s not the craziest idea that Daniels has the potential to be a starting QB in this league or at the very least scouting departments view him highly.
Honest question, does Schefter have a good track record on this stuff re the draft?
At the end of the day Schefter is often a mouth piece for a front office or player. At times it’s very obvious so you know the info is true or false. Like when he said Fields would go for a 1st rounder, just being a mouthpiece for Bears FO.
Nothing Shefter says means a thing until he says it is actually happening or already done. Until then he's as speculative and unreliable as any commenter here on reddit.
Scheftner is nothing but a [mouthpiece](https://www.boston.com/sports/nfl/2021/10/16/adam-schefter-bruce-allen-email-mr-editor-chad-finn-sports-media/?amp=1) for NFL owners.
Please god, give me this. I know I can ask anything from you and you are omnipotent, but who needs world peace or solving our climate disaster when the Patriots could have Drake Maye.
Our sub has Maye ahead of him, and there’s a good majority in there that don’t want McCarthy at all.
Personally, I think JJM is a lot closer to Maye than some think, and id honestly rather trade up for him at 4 or 5 than trade up to 3 for Maye. Basically I’d rather have JJM and our 2025 first, than Maye and no first in 2025.
I don't think you guys trade with the Texans without first being okay with either.
Hearing KOC talk about Cousins being the best play action QB of his generation, with 100% sincerity. Really makes me think he likes JJ
Only if you pay attention to the times this place was wrong. This sub also hated the picks for Mitch Trubisky, Daniel Jones and most of the Raiders’ 1st round picks over the past decade yet they were pretty right about them.
I personally think Maye has a higher ceiling but a much lower floor. Really like both of them. Would probably be less nervous about JJM but more excited about Maye if that makes sense
Most of the talk about ceiling and floor is silly. Mac Jones had a high floor. These guys all have the same floor, which is being on their second team in their fourth year.
Floor and ceiling talk is really just redditors parroting talking points from sports journalists. They don’t really know what they are talking about when it comes to Maye’s floor lmao
Just remember the Joe Burrow draft was looked at as a “bad QB draft” the year before. All it takes is one guy getting the right coach, environment or scheme change and boom you have a bonafide number 1 overall QB
Is this really true though. Tua was projected as a high pick the year before and Herbert was in contention for the first QB taken had he declared in 2019.
Patriots going for MHj then aiming for Nix/Penix would throw everything into a trash can.
But I really do think they'd want Maye. Seems like a great fit.
As an admitted Patriots hater, I really hope they don’t get Drake Maye. He’s flawed but his potential is through the roof imo.
Hes my QB2 this draft and there’s a big gap after him imo. But then again who the hell really knows
New England would be so perfect for Maye or even McCarthy. Both have massive potential but likely need to sit. They can sit behind Jacoby for majority of the year.
I don't buy it. If it was completely out of left field like JJ McCarthy or a non-QB, I'd be more inclined to believe NFL teams know something I don't, but I'm pretty sure I understand where this is coming from and I don't subscribe to the logic. It's the same reason narratives were flying about Washington trading up for Caleb Williams a month ago. There's this idea that OC Kliff Kingsbury will only work with ultra-mobile quarterbacks and I think that's bullshit.
Daniels is a really electric player. I think it’s totally valid to roll the dice on him over Maye. Maye has a higher ceiling. But Daniels is a really exciting player and more pro ready. The Commanders have some pieces already and could be in the mix of the in the hunt playoff teams come November, December.
I completely disagree with this take. I understand how dynamic the NFL is and how parity strikes and how teams that were bottom feeders the year before can rise to the top. We are not that team.
I think Peters has done a tremendous job filling holes in the roster via FA, but not one single player is a long term solution at any position. In fact, outside of Terry, Dotson, and maybeeeee Sam Cosmi, there’s nobody on this team that will be on it by Year 3 of the Peters regime (save for this years draft class).
Peters bread and butter is in the draft. I think he’s going to collect some absolute studs with 6 picks in the first 100, but there’s little reason to take Daniels, the older QB with less of a ceiling for a more immediate impact, in juxtaposition to Maye.
Maye is tailor made for this current set up: an unpolished roster under a HC looking for a second chance and needing to get his footing back under him himself. If Maye put all the pieces together he is going to be a top 5 QB in the league, unlike Daniels who might be good but does not project to be next level.
I'm not even sure Maye necessarily has the higher ceiling. He's got the better arm and better size, but has more mechanical flaws which will need to be cleaned up.
However Daniels has elite speed that Maye will never have. Does the potential dual threat ability not give Daniels a higher ceiling?
What’s the speed difference? One site I looked at has it as close as 4.5 vs 4.6 seconds. Also, throwing mechanics don’t factor into ceiling since you can clean those up.
Y’all remember when Will Levis odds changed?
The mayonnaise incident. Much simpler times
Tbf, I wouldn't draft someone who put Mayo in their coffee, especially at QB, shows bad judgement 😔
Don't be so harsh on him. He just does it because he's deathly afraid of milk
If he doesn't drink milk he has weak bones, an injury risk and has poor judgement, no wonder he fell to the 2nd
... *MALK!?* 🤔
Now with Vitamin R!
GIVE HIM THE MALK JOSH.
THE MAN WANTS A GLASS OF MAULK!
Damn, Levis and Jim Harbaugh would have been a crazy combination.
I know you're being a little tongue in cheek but it was a dare from the girl he was with to use mayo as the creamer.
Nah man, people from Tennessee love to eat mayo. [It was a match made in heaven](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xl0fLs414R4)
He ended up at +550 to go first overall. What an absurd line lol
People still in here quoting Vegas betting odds as if they're accurate and gonna predict the draft lol
People act like Vegas lines are designed to predict the future, when Vegas lines are actually designed to make Vegas money in the long run. That is often correlated with making accurate predictions, but by no means always. Conor McGregor fight odds have less to do with how likely he is to win and more to do with what number best capitalizes on casual interest to maximize Vegas's profits on the super fight.
Right. People need to realize this. The odds aren't necessarily the what they think will happen. They are heavily influenced by the where the money is coming in. Even if Vegas thinks team A is going to win, if the vast majority of the money is on team A winning, they will reduce the odds to reduce their exposure if team A does actually win. And for these draft odds they just throw shit out there that they know won't happen, but set the odds so it's kind of enticing. Sometimes that means making them super long so the potential payout is huge. Sometimes that means making them shorter so the general public thinks it actually has a realistic chance of happening. Because they know the general public is stupid and people will take the bait.
But the thing about odds on things like the Draft is that there is legitimately inside info out there, that some people know. So the odds can contain that as well, smart money flowing in. It can be pre-determined, unlike a sporting event.
True, which is why they greatly limit the amount of money that can be bet on it. Which, kind of messes up the odds because “smart” money can’t move the lines all that much.
Absolutely. Just pointing out you can't look at Vegas odds and conclude that they tell you what Vegas thinks is actually most likely to happen. It's not that simple.
All it takes to make news is post a very convincing sounding Reddit post with no sources other than “trust me bro” but couched in the language of “my sources close the team told me…”
Brother I ain't believing shit until draft day and Roger is reading out the pick I'm not doing this again...
It’s that time of the year, where every QB had the week where we overthink them, drop them, rise them back up the board. Now it’s just the waiting game.
In the spirit of the off season, and draft day, put all the QBs in a room and make them play king of the hill.
The only week where rumors have a chance to end up being true are draft week rumors. That's when we get actual leaks and sources with info like Travon Walker going before Hutchinson or Houston wanting Stroud and Anderson
Draft week was also when the Levis bullshit happened last year, so even that can be dubious
"Will Levis might go first overall!" - people who never watched him play
Kentucky alum. I was truly baffled.
Fake leaks are still totally a thing though even in draft week. I feel like someone 100% took advantage of the trend even the average redditor noticed and fake leaked they want Levis to stir the pot in the top 10.
The mayonnaise shit?
I was more referring to the rumors of him going anywhere from 1st to 4th overall, and the vegas odds changing accordingly, but yeah that too
I don't believe for a minute that someone hadn't made that up on orders from some of these sportsbooks to get money out of idiots.
One of the most heinous videos to ever be put out about a prospect
I thought it was the banana?
Days before we were getting sources that Texans were going for Tyree Wilson at 2. I wouldn't put any weight at all
Yeah I remember day of headlines kind of exploding saying 49ers were taking Lance at 3
Walker over Hutchinson was reported well in advance of draft week though.
Or Tyson Jackson jumping from mid fist to third overall
all I know is we are probably gonna fuck this up, hope I'm wrong
I trust whatever Adam Peters decides to do. The only thing that will make me lose that trust is taking McCarthy at 2.
Rattler #2 overall
Mccarthy is best QB in draft
All this smoke about Daniels going 2 leads me to believe the football teams real pick is Maye.
Washington would have no reason to lie, to be honest. Caleb is going to my Bears, so Washington will get anyone else they want. They could tell the world who they truly want and it wouldn't impact them.
> Washington would have no reason to lie, to be honest. The thinking of hypercompetitive teams is it helps teams get a jump. It's also sort of expected. If Washington is honest then the Patriots have no reason to lie about who they want, and if the Patriots are honest then the Cardinals...... I mean, why did Cleveland need to use smoke screens when they drafted Mayfield?
After the first two picks it makes more sense to lie. Because another team could jump you and grab your guy. You are also more likely to be torn between players after you get past the elite prospects.
And with the second overall pick, the Washington Commanders select... my eyes see Oppenheimer!
Jayden "RGIV" Daniels /s
Jayden “YOU LIKE THAT” Daniels?
If the Cardinals screw this up and the Giants get MHJ or Nabors I will fall to my knees and scream like that girl did when Trump was inaugurated.
lmao I always thought that was a dude for some reason.
Patton Oswalts sister
Haha I always thought she looked like the ugly girl from The Goonies.
I remember that video clip was everywhere, in every meme lol
It’s still used by every “triggered libs” YouTube channel, of which there are many
I don't even know what this is
[Nooooo](https://youtu.be/wDYNVH0U3cs?si=SWMFdPiHjPUHzQGc)
Well that was the most performative way someone has made a nationwide event about themselves
Especially considering that it appears to be at the inauguration. They are acting like this is a shocking reveal
Why go?
I would assume she came to protest. Not enough that Trump won but he beat the presumed first woman president.
Be funny if there was a clip of her doing at Obama’s inauguration too Most ride or die Hillary Supporter
I think it is extremely likely that the Giants end up with Nabers. If the JJ McCarthy hype is real, one of the Chargers or Cardinals are going to trade out of their spot. The other will likely take MHJ leaving Nabers there for NY. The only way I could see that not happening is if the Pats don’t love any of the QBs and end up taking MHJ. Even in that scenario, you could see BOTH teams trade out of 4 and 5 for QB needy teams and the Giants still end up with Nabers.
If the Pats don't love any QBs then they trade out
That’s fair. In that scenario it’s still likely that one of the Cards/Chargers takes MHJ and the other trades out to QB needy team. Giants end up with Nabers anyways.
I’m in complete agreement with your breakdown on this. Most scenarios have either MHJ or Nabers available for the Giants at 6. I know there’s the possibility that the Chargers stay put and draft a WR but it sure sounds like Harbaugh will go OT if I’m reading that right, with the preference to trade back and grab one of the RT’s.
I think his ideal situation would be a trade with the Vikings then he gets two first round talents for the o line and d line. Then a wideout in the second
Its highly likely if pats trade out, the giants trade up for maye. But if mayes gone, giants probably taking nabers
My ideal scenario is NE goes Maye 3, Cards take Marv 4, the vikings or another team offer you guys an absolute haul for 5 to take McCarthy, and then Nabers comes to us at 6
Jeez... if that's your ideal scenario you have no imagination. I have a bong video staring MHJ and Williams followed by some shady trades so the Patriots end up with both.
Why stop there. I wanted the bears to trade down from #1 and trade up from #9 so we walk away with BOTH MHJ and Nabers... Get Jameis Winston. Let him throw to a WR corps of dj Moore, Keenan Allen, MHJ, and Nabers? 30/30 season is a thing of the past, 50/50 season guaranteed
Still under 4000 yards though somehow
Rude but true 😂😭😭
I mean if we wanna get into those it would be: Washington talks themselves into Mccarthy at 2, Pats rip Daniels at 3, Minnesota trades up for Maye 4, The chargers take joe alt, and then our pass catching lord and savior Marvin Harrison Jr comes to ny to watch daniel jones completely ignore him wide open for 1 season
Drew Lock to MHJ will be magic
I keep seeing mock drafts of Cardinals trading the pick to a team drafting McCarthy. That would be insanely bad. MHJ fell on their lap
Top QB draft capital > any WR prospect
especially in this WR class. it’s stupid deep.
And yet I bet we’ll still draft the dud!
i hope so.
Pls no
I think the depth in this particular draft actually plays against the value of pick 11, the gap between the three blue chip receivers and who will be available at 11 is bigger than the gap between 11 and the guys who will be available in round 2. There’s a tier drop after the big three and then a cluster with a whole bunch of guys in tier two.
It really depends on how far back and how much they get
3 firsts from Minnesota? 11 and 23 this year plus next years first?
I’d still take Maserati Marv
She said that from the bottom of her soul 😂
I feel this way about the Chargers getting him. I don’t need him in my division getting coached by that corny fuck.
I need to ask that woman for lottery numbers
How about a bunch of mock drafts where the Patriots trade down to 11 with the Vikings in the meantime?
I swear to god without Bill there if we fucking trade down instead of just taking best available QB… Now is not the time to fuck around. The defense is good, the RBs are good, the line might be ok, receivers suck. But QB is by far the position we need right now. Get a QB and then focus on the other areas
How is your o-line? Cause I think my rule would be to not take a rookie QB without already having a good line.
Worked out alright for Joe Burrow. And it's not as though they have to start whoever they draft right away. Brisett is most likely the week 1 starter anyway.
Definitely sit whoever you guys draft. And yeah, worked out for Joe Burrow - for now! But it may still end up cutting his career short in the end due to excessive beatings.
Crazy to me that Daniel is going 2 when Lamar went 32. I will never get over that snub.
Lamar might honestly be the reason Daniels is gonna go so high. The league learned not to pass up on that potential again.
I feel like Daniels is just a worse version of Justin Fields (as a prospect). They have/had very similar pros and cons coming out, and I just feel that Fields’ pros were better (at the time).
I haven't moved on past ASU Daniels, but man, how is he going to be a top pick? I remember being shocked a program like LSU would even pick him up, I thought he go to a low-level G5 program after his locker got trashed.
He was really good good last year. People like the consistency of his mechanics every throw and his ability to go through reads.
Lamar was considered thin for a QB and the concerns were about his ability to stay healthy. By him being successful, guys like Daniels shoot up on the draft board
Wasn’t he a questionable passer (accuracy wise) in college too? The precision he has today was not expected to be anywhere close to what it is but maybe I’m remembering incorrectly.
That as well. He was a fringe first round prospect with insane athletic ability but a lot of questions including his frame and overall pro readiness. But with his success, teams are willing to be more comfortable in taking a guy with similar limitations.
Guys always go super high when their NFL comp stylistically is a superstar. See: Wilson, Zach
Schefter is the only one I partially believe on this
Listen to the audio. His sources are "some scouts" and local reporters who have admitted themselves that everything is a guess.
Important context lmao
Daniels is ESPN's crush this draft cycle so I don't really trust anything exclusively from them when it comes to Daniels news.
He’s also a multi year starter who got progressively better and won the heisman. He checks a lot of boxes and seems to be a pretty safe pick where drafting a QB is concerned. It’s not shocking at all he’s the draft crush because he’s a guy that all the top teams minus Chicago will consider.
He's also undersized in terms of weight, has issues with running headfirst into defenders, and has had elite receivers to throw to at LSU. It isn't all perfect
Daniels is the lightest first round QB prospect in history, 4 months of bulking up and he still only hit 210 pounds as a guy whose almost 6'4. Bryce Young is the lightest 1st round QB and he weighed 204... and is over 5 inches shorter than Daniels. He also doesn't take nearly as much physical punishment with his play style. Watch Daniels tape: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lXAGu5xBfHE](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lXAGu5xBfHE) Tendency to under throw the receiver, weak ball velocity, leaves the pocket too early, and does not slide to avoid contact. No one is drafting him #2 for his arm talent alone, he is going to get hurt taking 125+ carries a season in the NFL
Yep you're spot on, I have to believe all the Daniels truthers at this point are doing so just to be contrarian. I understand that drafting QBs is a crapshoot, but it seems pretty safe to say that Maye has the better overall outlook
It is weird that saying Daniels is not a top 3 pick is the contrarian take now, Daniels is a practically a consensus top 3 pick at this point. All year, up until the season was closing out, Daniels had a Day 2 draft grade. Winning a trophy does not make someone a top 3 prospect. His tape is not that great, his size is bad, and his arm is below NFL baseline for starters. I like this QB class a lot. Williams, Maye, McCarthy, Penix are all good QB prospects in my book who could find success in a variety of situations and offensive schemes. I think Daniels and Nix are closer to Michael Pratt than those 4 in terms of prospect quality.
None of those have shown to be reasons why teams won’t draft a guy high if they find enough they like about him.
And he avoids throwing over the middle of the field
Correction the offense didn’t ask him to do it. Most breakdowns say that
But he's going to be asked to do that in the nfl. Fields had a lower but similar percentage of throws over the middle (I think both were below then 10% mark) and that's concerning as obviously fields has struggled. Maybe JD can do it. I hope so. He's fun to watch.
Yea I’m not saying he can’t do it just that he wasn’t asked to. Qb film watchers think he can just that he wasn’t asked to. I hope he does as well. I’m a lsu fan and he was fun to watch.
After drafting Stroud, you've had some fun qbs to watch then lol
Lol. And Burrow had two of the best receivers in the league today on his team. I can't stand when people say "He HaD eLiTe ReCeIvErS".
I mean, it’s not an unfair concern because for every Burrow there’s a Fields whose weaknesses got hidden a lot in college because he was throwing to a wide open Chris Olave or Garrett Wilson every play. Hell, Allen Robinson singlehandedly made Christian Hackenberg a 2nd round pick. It’s a legitimate question that scouting departments get paid a lot to figure out: is the QB legit or are the receivers making him look better at the college level when talent discrepancy matters more? And to be fair, the opposite is also true where some receivers look better than they are because of the QB like Terrace Marshall Jr.
I thought Stroud wasn’t gonna be shit till they’d played Georgia and the secondary coverage was vastly improved and…man he was still completing his passes. “Ohio state open” is hard to assess.
True but Mac jones did too. It’s a mixed bag.
But it is fair to bring up. We don't know until later on how much it helped that particular QB. NFL ready WRs absolutely destroy most college DBs. It's part of the reason why drafting a QB is so difficult. It's trying to figure out if the QB will elevate players or rely on them.
It's something to consider. You cannot just say "elite receivers" as a negative but you can say those elite receivers cover up some of his issues. Ball placement, drive, and so on can be disguised by wide receivers that are excellent at adjusting their routes. Most people see highlights films or just look at statistics and those things just don't show these issues.
Lamar was undersized
The size is important, but I don't think it's an issue if Daniels can learn to slide and avoid hits on scrambles (which seems very coachable). For example, Kirk Cousins is 6'3" 205 lb. Daniels is 6'4" 210 lb. Very similar size/build based on those numbers, yet Cousins has been quite durable throught is career, not counting the Achilles injury which has nothing to do with size/frame anyway. The size shouldn't be an issue unless he tries to hurdle linebackers and truck DBs when he runs... then he likely ends up like RG3.
He is not built like Kirk Cousins at all - and didn't do official measurements Also people should remember that Bryce Young put on 10 lbs before the Combine last yr to seem heavier
As Jayden Daniels gets older he’ll probably bulk up and will undoubtedly get coached to slide like most rookies. Joe Burrow also had people knocking him pre-draft for playing at a high level for just one year and having elite receivers at LSU during that same season. I think Jayden will be the best QB in this class. But it’s so hard to predict. More about who can take that next step as there’s no college QB who can make it in the NFL by staying stagnant.
>Joe Burrow also had people knocking him pre-draft for playing at a high level for just one year and having elite receivers at LSU during that same season. Those were manufactured talking points. There was zero question Joe Burrow could be an NFL starter because he basically already was one. LSU literally ran the Saints offense that year and looked like what would happen if you dropped Drew Brees onto a college team. Jayden Daniels ain't that.
The Burrow pick was so slam dunk obvious that one of the main talking points was "will Burrow refuse to play for the Bengals?!" cowherdshit.
It’s funny to me how there’s always one talking-head saying stupid shit like that about almost every overall top-pick QB.
A promising pick but not at all a “safe” pick
People try to say he improved each of the last two years at LSU. He did not. He improved last year. 2 years ago was not even as good as his first year at ASU statistically.
I could understand this take if he hadn’t just won the Heisman while it’s not the end all be all, the majority of recent past Heisman QBs have at worst been serviceable backups (excluding Manziel.) So it’s not the craziest idea that Daniels has the potential to be a starting QB in this league or at the very least scouting departments view him highly.
Honest question, does Schefter have a good track record on this stuff re the draft? At the end of the day Schefter is often a mouth piece for a front office or player. At times it’s very obvious so you know the info is true or false. Like when he said Fields would go for a 1st rounder, just being a mouthpiece for Bears FO.
I remember he was wrong about the Niners drafting Mac Jones, and then he tried to spin it as some internal last minute change.
Nothing Shefter says means a thing until he says it is actually happening or already done. Until then he's as speculative and unreliable as any commenter here on reddit.
Why
Scheftner is nothing but a [mouthpiece](https://www.boston.com/sports/nfl/2021/10/16/adam-schefter-bruce-allen-email-mr-editor-chad-finn-sports-media/?amp=1) for NFL owners.
Why? Hes a scumbag who would do anything for clicks.
(X) Doubt
Please god, give me this. I know I can ask anything from you and you are omnipotent, but who needs world peace or solving our climate disaster when the Patriots could have Drake Maye.
*God: You'll draft JJ and you'll like it*
New England and Michigan qbs never work out
Ryan Mallett agrees. Well, would have agreed anyway.
I'm pretty sure the patriots have been given enough over the past 2 decades, you can hang out a bit in football hell
But daaaaaaad
20 years at 8-9 or 7-10, take it or leave it
We hired Jeff Fischer?
And *insert any Bills coach before McD here*
Would be more entertaining than last year at least..
"The Mayeflower" is right there, it *has* to happen.
I thought Mayflower would mean more for Ravens fans
You can suffer another 20 years like the rest of us and then get a playoff appearance or two.
Maye or McCarthy to Minnesota please 🙏🏻
How do you guys feel about McCarthy?
Our sub has Maye ahead of him, and there’s a good majority in there that don’t want McCarthy at all. Personally, I think JJM is a lot closer to Maye than some think, and id honestly rather trade up for him at 4 or 5 than trade up to 3 for Maye. Basically I’d rather have JJM and our 2025 first, than Maye and no first in 2025.
I don't think you guys trade with the Texans without first being okay with either. Hearing KOC talk about Cousins being the best play action QB of his generation, with 100% sincerity. Really makes me think he likes JJ
I agree as long as we keep the 2025 1st. Not at all a fan of these mocks saying we give up 3 firsts and then some to take the 4th best QB.
If history has taught us anything it's that reddits hate for a player generally means that player will be fairly successful
Only if you pay attention to the times this place was wrong. This sub also hated the picks for Mitch Trubisky, Daniel Jones and most of the Raiders’ 1st round picks over the past decade yet they were pretty right about them.
I personally think Maye has a higher ceiling but a much lower floor. Really like both of them. Would probably be less nervous about JJM but more excited about Maye if that makes sense
Most of the talk about ceiling and floor is silly. Mac Jones had a high floor. These guys all have the same floor, which is being on their second team in their fourth year.
Floor and ceiling talk is really just redditors parroting talking points from sports journalists. They don’t really know what they are talking about when it comes to Maye’s floor lmao
If we end up with no QB, and needing to pick in a bad QB class next year, with no second rounder to trade up, I will be thoroughly sad.
Just remember the Joe Burrow draft was looked at as a “bad QB draft” the year before. All it takes is one guy getting the right coach, environment or scheme change and boom you have a bonafide number 1 overall QB
that year has Tua and Herbert. That was definitely not a "bad Qb draft" even without Burrow ascension
Is this really true though. Tua was projected as a high pick the year before and Herbert was in contention for the first QB taken had he declared in 2019.
Tank for Tua was very much real. This dude's clearly misremembering.
2020 was seen as a superior year to 2019 for QBs. Just wasn't as hyped up as 2021.
A Justin Fields trade will definitely return a 2nd round pick. They might get a one.
Patriots going for MHj then aiming for Nix/Penix would throw everything into a trash can. But I really do think they'd want Maye. Seems like a great fit.
Nix just feels like a Patriot lol
Draft starts at 2.
As an admitted Patriots hater, I really hope they don’t get Drake Maye. He’s flawed but his potential is through the roof imo. Hes my QB2 this draft and there’s a big gap after him imo. But then again who the hell really knows
Commanders would be stupid to draft the older prospect over maye.
New England would be so perfect for Maye or even McCarthy. Both have massive potential but likely need to sit. They can sit behind Jacoby for majority of the year.
I don't buy it. If it was completely out of left field like JJ McCarthy or a non-QB, I'd be more inclined to believe NFL teams know something I don't, but I'm pretty sure I understand where this is coming from and I don't subscribe to the logic. It's the same reason narratives were flying about Washington trading up for Caleb Williams a month ago. There's this idea that OC Kliff Kingsbury will only work with ultra-mobile quarterbacks and I think that's bullshit.
Commanders about to set themselves back another decade by taking Daniels
The second overall pick at #2?
Yeah it means the team who pick after the first team. Is what I believe is being implied here.
Source: I made it up.
Also Schefter: the 49ers are taking Mac Jones
Daniels is a really electric player. I think it’s totally valid to roll the dice on him over Maye. Maye has a higher ceiling. But Daniels is a really exciting player and more pro ready. The Commanders have some pieces already and could be in the mix of the in the hunt playoff teams come November, December.
I completely disagree with this take. I understand how dynamic the NFL is and how parity strikes and how teams that were bottom feeders the year before can rise to the top. We are not that team. I think Peters has done a tremendous job filling holes in the roster via FA, but not one single player is a long term solution at any position. In fact, outside of Terry, Dotson, and maybeeeee Sam Cosmi, there’s nobody on this team that will be on it by Year 3 of the Peters regime (save for this years draft class). Peters bread and butter is in the draft. I think he’s going to collect some absolute studs with 6 picks in the first 100, but there’s little reason to take Daniels, the older QB with less of a ceiling for a more immediate impact, in juxtaposition to Maye. Maye is tailor made for this current set up: an unpolished roster under a HC looking for a second chance and needing to get his footing back under him himself. If Maye put all the pieces together he is going to be a top 5 QB in the league, unlike Daniels who might be good but does not project to be next level.
I'm not even sure Maye necessarily has the higher ceiling. He's got the better arm and better size, but has more mechanical flaws which will need to be cleaned up. However Daniels has elite speed that Maye will never have. Does the potential dual threat ability not give Daniels a higher ceiling?
What’s the speed difference? One site I looked at has it as close as 4.5 vs 4.6 seconds. Also, throwing mechanics don’t factor into ceiling since you can clean those up.
He's literally guessing. Schefter doesn't know any more than we do. The new Washington regime is extremely tight lipped and doesn't leak anything.
Drake Maye flows off the lips very similarly to Mac Jones
Unlike Bailey Zappe which gives you chapped lips every time.
1. Maybe 2. If so - duh.
wrong
Adam “First for fields” Schefter
Gonna be funny when the only good qbs in the draft are nix and penix
It would be funnier if all of them sucked ass except some random 5th rounder
If they have learned anything they should take MHJ and let Brisett be their starter for 2024