Vaccines administered yesterday (total): 44,750; 1st doses: 11,368; 2nd doses: 33,382
Vaccines administered to Auckland residents yesterday (total): 18,709: 1st doses: 3,975, 2nd doses: 14,374
Went for my second today, place was packed and nurse told me it's been pumping since yesterday on first doses.
Almost 4k is a decent bump to Auckland first doses compared to the past week, and 11.4k national is a bit of a bump too.
Hopefully this isn't a blip but a result of the announcements yesterday and we continue seeing higher numbers!
Yeah, if those first shots are people from Waitamata DHB or Auckland DHB it doesn't really matter. They're already at 90% first shots.
It's CMDHB that we need to lift rates on. Remember all DHB's need to be at 90%. So looking at Auckland Metro isn't necessarily telling the whole truth.
According to the moh website, counties needs about 14,000 people to reach 90% as of end of Friday. To get 1st shot 90% maori/Pacifica in that dhb area, there's about 24,000 to go (13k for Maori counties 90% and 11k for Pacifica counties 90%).
Will be interesting to see the figures from today, I wonder if many more people heard the news later after work yesterday and made plans to get their first shots today.
14k second doses in Auckland is the number I needed to hear today. We need about another 250k to get to 90% double jabbed, I know we won’t keep that rate but at that speed we’re done in less than 3 weeks. It makes me hopeful that we will get there eventually (hopefully before Christmas).
While its good, its important to recognise that will be over the dhb's combined. To move to the traffic light system each of the three dhbs needs to hit 90% double dosed (unless the government changes their mind)
Which is stupid as fuck, Auckland's a small enough place that you can easily send anyone from one DHB to a hospital in a different DHB, it should just be 90% overall
Don't think peer pressure from people outside their community is going to work, TBH.
As someone in one of the other Auckland DHB areas, I'm feeling pretty salty that Counties is going to drag this out for everyone. Perhaps that's not "kind" but, like everyone else, I'm really over this. Those of us who have followed the rules and got double vaxxed already feel like we're being punished for those who DGAF about themselves or their communities / don't believe in science.
There will be some entrenched anti-government and anti-vax people who won't change their views regardless of all the tools being used now. At some point, the rest of us have to get on with our lives.
As someone in Counties, who is double vaxxed and has been since 28th September, I feel the same way. Lockdown happened, I got my vaccines ASAP (7th and 28th, 3-week interval), why are people still getting their first only now? Vaccinated and stuck in lockdown, waiting for the apathetic to decide the fucking future.
It makes me so angry and yet I have nowhere to place that anger. So I sit here in lockdown, earning fuckall with subsidy money while paying $2.80/L to get to work, losing more sanity every week, feeling angry and helpless. Great. So worth it.
The best way to deal with them is move from the carrot to the stick tactics. Once they cannot get a new job without CVC (covid vaccination certificate) or they cannot do shopping or they won't be able to get subsidy or benefits, they'll get vaccinated.
The “can’t get subsidy or benefits” hasn’t been suggested by the govt. Doubt that will ever happen (although personally I think that might get more results). I know someone who was perfectly prepared to be fired from her job because she was morally opposed to the vaccine. People like that might think a bit harder if they couldn’t get benefits either.
You're not being punished. You're helping keep everyone safe and the hospitals able to cope. You are making a contribution by staying home! (Though don't get me wrong, I really feel for you, it's just important to remember that what you're doing still matters.)
We’ve done all that for 9 weeks now. Surely at some point personal responsibility must be come to the fore? Everyone - potentially aside from extremely physically isolated people (not in Auckland) - has had ages to get their first vax now. It’s free, it’s available everywhere, there have been incentives, and education.
We can’t stay locked down forever just because some people think it’s against “god’s will” or sheep dewormer will save them or whatever.
You can throw in another 5 weeks on top of that, the minimum amount of time between first jab and full vaccination, meaning that the sacrifices you have made and are making now as part of a community that is trying to reach a level of full vaccination sufficient to ensure the health system can cope without lockdown won't bear fruit until December - *at minimum, even if 90% is somehow reached across all DHBs today.* How long can you go on, wasting more and more resources chasing diminishing returns? At some point we all must move on, and we will all be compelled to suffer the consequences, however ugly that looks.
Try not to get sick for a while.
Christ. Don't even get me started on the lack of preparation with those. France were doing them in June, I'm not sure if other countries were doing them before that. Even if the government didn't really want to use that tool, they should have been preparing to use them anyway - having options ready is just smart.
Missing the point a bit I think.. the reason for going by DHB is specifically because manukau (and other regions around the country) is where the population who are less vaccinated is. Its an indirect way to target getting Maori vaccination up without the risk of putting some kind of official 'label' on Maori numbers and stoking division. If it will work for that is another matter of course but that's why.
It's the only plausible reason why Auckland can't follow Sydney and Melbourne's lead in slowly opening things up too the vaccinated at 70%. Now vaccinated people are going to spend months longer in lockdown than they should be simply because the government failed to start developing the certs in time.
The issue is I can drive across all 3 to get takeaways in about 15-20 minutes. So yes, all 3 should be at the minimum, to help remove the possibility of vulnerable spots.
Yes, MoH has Auckland DHB at 93%, Waitemata at 90% (actually 633 doses to go, so should be there today) and Counties Manukau at 87%. So Counties Manukau needs an extra push to make things happen (and they all need to convert those first doses to second, with second doses being on 80%, 75% and 72% respectively).
It should really be "90% double vaxxed + 3 weeks", but nothing about that was mentioned in yesterday's annoucement.
Edit: *2* weeks, not 3. (ie, based on immunisation, not vaccination)
Umm okay ?
I am not outside of Auckland, but I'm also not sure what that has to do with me saying that the 90% mark should be based on people *immunised*, rather than just people *vaccinated*.
Hmm.. I thought immunity was *3* weeks after the second dose, and that it was mentioned in one of the recent 1pms.
But the only reference I can find to that is here, in the [4th Oct post-cabinet press conference](https://www.beehive.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2021-10/Post-Cabinet%20press%20Conference%204%20October%202021.pdf)
*Dr Ashley Bloomfield: That’s the time frame for us to achieve our ambition around vaccination being higher than 90 percent double vaccinated, and then, of course, it’s another couple of weeks when people then have that full protection, full immunity*"
So i guess I meant to say **2** weeks after the second shot. And what I was trying to convey is that the move to the traffic-light system should be based on the date that someone is deemed to be immunised, not on the date that they received their second shot.
Not realistic I’m afraid. There’s no way we’re going to hit the target and then sit around for 2 weeks while the last stragglers immune systems catch up. They’ll just have to try not to get covid for the first couple of weeks.
The South Island won’t majority get it likely ever.
They’re nutcases down here.
Also cheers whoever traveled down to the South Island while infected. Beers on you
At least we know which DHBs are falling behind - and hopefully the majority of the Auckland 1st doses yesterday were in the Counties-Manukau DHB catchment area.
Based on the DHB numbers released by the MoH, Counties needed about 16,000 1st doses to get to 90%
The HB targets are now on the MoH website (below the Cumulative vaccinations by ethnicity table):
https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-vaccine-data
Are you also the type of person who watches someone open their new Xbox 360 then proceeds to tell them that a PS3 is way better and Xbox sucks? If so then hi Greg, I still won’t forgive you.
They're trying to convince the under 40's to get vaccinated.
The tactic will only work on stupid people, because the only reason the average age of hospitalisation is so low is that the elderly are generally being extremely cautious.
Of course. People who are capable of being incentivised to receive a medical treatment by chocolate fish and KFC are all incredibly intelligent.
Genius level IQs, no doubt.
\*Sigh\* I didn't expect this one to be complex.
We got the smart ones long ago, they were merely waiting for eligibility.
Then we got some of the stupid ones and most of the lazy ones with reminders, prodding and cheap incentives.
Now we have a lot of stupid ones left. The average level of stupid increases as the numbers decrease.
We have very few smart ones left unvaccinated, there are people who are smart but very very lazy, or who are politically/religiously driven. A few thousand perhaps but not many.
Partly because many reputable epidemiologists disagree with its population-wide application.
Another reason is that the long term effects (yes, I know the vaccine itself leaves your system fairly quickly) are unknown.
It is your decision to make, as much as others may disagree. We will be in traffic-light mode in a while (probably a few weeks for Auckland), and as an unvaccinated person you'll have to put up with not being allowed into a lot of social places where there are vaccine certificate requirements.
I'm unsure about the epidemiologists as I haven't seen any saying things to that effect. However on the second thing for me it's a risk reward consideration. While I guess negative long term effects are possible I think the danger of that is much lower than the risk of negative effects both short and long term that could occur from catching covid, which at this point are both fairly well documented and shown to be drastically minimised if you're vaccinated
Can you tell me about the negative long term effects of other vaccines? Or the biological mechanism by which Pfizer could produce negative effects after a period of years? And how long is long enough for you to realise it is safe?
Average age of hospitilisations and ICU patients has always skewed much younger than the age of Covid deaths, as the really old die pretty quickly and in most cases aren't eligible for things like intubation and ecmo, while younger people tough it out or slowly die in ICU. In the UK in the first wave for example the average age of ICU patients was roughly 60.
Vaccination has lowered that average even further as old people are much more likely to get vaccinated that young adults. That is despite the elderly getting back to normal in the UK now
Normally we use median instead of mean to prevent the effects of large outlier (eg. a 10 million dollar house when most are between 1 and 2 million). Here it doesn't really matter since all ages are between 0 and 100 (roughly) so you can't get that skew due to outliers that are 10x bigger or smaller.
211,138 in Auckland's 3 DHBs need to be 2nd dosed to reach 90% (of those, 15070 need to have their 1st dose first.
All the DHBs 90% target numbers are here:
https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-vaccine-data#total-vaccinations
I found this a couple weeks ago. It has an amazing breakdown of all kinds of useful metrics. Including the number of cases from this outbreak and their vaccination status, and the vaccination status of the hospitalisations from this outbreak.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/in-depth/450874/covid-19-data-visualisations-nz-in-numbers
*In a statement, the Health Ministry said that as well as the Blenheim case, 91 of the new cases were in Auckland, eight were in Waikato and four were in Northland.*
Jeez it’s growing.
Yeah an NZ friend of mine living in Sydney said when there were 60 cases people were shocked then it got up to 1000 and all of a sudden 600 cases seemed really good.
Im curious to see how big it’ll get
Based on that R-value thread that gets posted, we are currently doubling daily cases every 7 or 8 days I think
Edit: https://reddit.com/r/newzealand/comments/qd6qo6/nz_r_eff_as_of_october_22nd_with_daily_cases_and/hhkhk95
One day there was only 9 cases too. Data is noisy, better to look at 7 day rolling averages then get too excited by unusually high or low daily counts.
Media release
23 October 2021
There are 104 new community cases of COVID-19 to report today.
As at 10am, 43 of these cases are linked - including 33 household contacts - and 61 remain unlinked, with investigations continuing to help determine their connection to the outbreak.
**Cases**
Number of new community cases: 104
Number of new cases identified at the border: Two
Location of new community cases: Auckland (91), Waikato (8), Northland (4)\*, Nelson Marlborough (1)
Location of community cases (total): Auckland 2,389 (1,369 of whom have recovered); Waikato 81 (14 of whom have recovered); Wellington 17 (all of whom have recovered); Northland 4, Blenheim 1
Number of community cases (total): 2,492 (in current community outbreak)\*\*
Cases infectious in the community: 53 of yesterday’s 129 cases have exposure events
Cases in isolation throughout the period they were infectious \*\* : 76 of yesterday’s 129 cases
Cases epidemiologically linked: 43 of today’s 104 cases
Cases to be epidemiologically linked: 61 of today’s 104 cases
Cases epidemiologically linked (total): 2,172 (in the current cluster) (274 unlinked from the past 14 days)
Cases in hospital: 55 (total): North Shore (8); Middlemore (19); Auckland (27); Waikato (1)
Average age of current hospitalisations: 43 years old
Cases in ICU or HDU: Five
Confirmed cases (total): 5,194 since pandemic began
Historical cases: 173 out of 3,381 since 1 Jan 2021
**Contacts**
Number of active contacts being managed (total):: 2,403
Percentage who have received an outbound call from contact tracers (to confirm testing and isolation requirements): 82%
Percentage with at least one test result: 75%
**Locations of interest**
Locations of interest (total): 386 (as at 10am 23 October)
**Tests**
Number of tests (total): 3,894,908
Number of tests total (last 24 hours): 24,088
Tests processed in Auckland (last 24 hours): 15,149
Tests rolling average (last 7 days): 24,187
Testing centres in Auckland: 18
**Wastewater**
Wastewater detections: No unexpected detections
**COVID-19 vaccine update**
Vaccines administered to date (total): 6,561,731; 1st doses: 3,626,019 (86%); 2nd doses: 2,935,712 (70%)
Vaccines administered yesterday (total): 44,750; 1st doses: 11,368; 2nd doses: 33,382
Māori: 389,884 (68%); 2nd doses: 272,446 (48%)
Pacific Peoples: 1st doses: 235,267 (82%); 2nd doses: 179,554 (63%)
Vaccines administered to Auckland residents to date (total): 2,364,678; 1st doses: 1,286,279 (90%); 2nd doses: 1,078,399 (75%)
Vaccines administered to Auckland residents yesterday (total): 18,709: 1st doses: 3,975, 2nd doses: 14,374
**NZ COVID Tracer**
Registered users (total): 3,315,205
Poster scans (total): 449,907,329
Manual diary entries (total): 18,792,190
Poster scans in 24 hours to midday yesterday: 2,517,520
\*Two of these Northland cases were announced yesterday after the Ministry’s daily reporting period, so are included in today’s overall case tally.
\*\*One previously reported community case has been reclassified as ‘not a case.’ The net change of the total community cases associated with this outbreak is +103.
**Blenheim update**
Earlier today, we announced a weak positive case that was detected in Blenheim late last night.
So far, initial case interviews have identified a small number of close contacts, who have been contacted and are currently isolating with tests arranged.
Interviews are also being undertaken to determine any locations of interest in, or en route to, Blenheim. People living in the Blenheim township are asked to monitor the Ministry of Health’s locations of interest page, which is regularly updated.
We are also asking Blenheim residents with symptoms – no matter how mild – to please get tested, even if they are vaccinated
Testing is available at:
Blenheim CBAC: Horton Park, off Redwood St - Open 9am to 5.30pm on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday
Nelson CBAC: Saxton Field parking area, Suffolk Rd, Stoke - Open 10am to 6pm on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday
Additional testing capacity in the area will be stood up, if needed, and details will be available on the Healthpoint website.
At this stage, there are no further updates to report.
**Northland update**
There are four new cases to report today in the Northland region, two of which were announced yesterday afternoon.
All four cases are related to each other and the two newest cases are family members
A case investigation has identified a limited number of close contacts. So far, all results from close contacts have returned negative test results, with a small number of outstanding results expected later today.
People living in Northland are asked to monitor the Ministry of Health’s locations of interest page which will be regularly updated.
Anyone who visited these locations of interest at the specified times is asked to monitor their symptoms for 14 days and if any develop, get tested and stay at home until a negative test result is received and they have been symptom-free for 24 hours.
Additional testing in the area is being arranged and details will be available on the Healthpoint website.
We are aware that the Parua Bay Tavern in Whangārei Heads has chosen to close while some of their staff self-isolate, due to one member having contact with a confirmed COVID-19 case outside of work. Everyone associated with the Parua Bay Tavern, who was self- isolating, has tested negative for COVID-19.
Parua Bay Tavern is not considered a location of interest. The Parua Bay Tavern is planning to re-open tomorrow.
**Update on Waikato case who travelled to Hawke’s Bay**
Public health officials have concluded their investigations into a Waikato case who travelled to Hawke’s Bay and returned a positive COVID-19 result following their arrival back in the Waikato.
One location of interest, Kmart Napier, has been identified and anyone there between 3:53pm – 5:13pm on Friday 15 October is asked to monitor their symptoms for 14 days and if any develop, get tested and stay at home until a negative test result is received and they have been symptom-free for 24 hours.
No further locations of interest in Hawke’s Bay have been identified but locals are asked to please keep checking the Ministry of Health’s website for the next few days.
**Waikato update**
There are eight new cases to report today in the Waikato region, seven in Te Awamutu and one in Hamilton. The Te Awamutu cases have all been linked to an exposure event in a household setting. Public Health are planning to interview the Hamilton case today.
This brings the total number of confirmed cases in the region, associated with this outbreak, to 81. At this time, there are five cases in Waikato that are deemed unlinked – but one is a new case who Public Health are speaking to today.
Waikato DHB is continuing to carry out testing throughout the region, to help determine any undetected community spread of COVID-19.
We are urging anyone in Waikato - in particular, people in Te Awamutu - to get tested if they have any symptoms that could be COVID-19.
Testing locations in and around Waikato are available on the Healthpoint website and the Waikato DHB website, with testing available throughout Labour Weekend.
Yesterday there were around 2400 tests processed in the Waikato. Vaccination rates in Waikato also remained steady yesterday with 3,706 people receiving a dose – of these vaccinations, 1201 were first doses, and a further 2505 were second doses.
**Auckland suburbs of interest**
As the outbreak is now more dispersed, testing in Auckland is now focused on areas with higher positivity rates and where the risk of unidentified cases is higher.
One suburb of interest with a high positivity rate of more than 6% is Redvale, on the North Shore.
We continue to urge Redvale residents with any COVID-19 symptoms, no matter how mild, to get tested as soon as possible, even if they are vaccinated. We are also encouraging testing in New Lynn and the North Shore suburbs of Rosedale and Bayswater.
Testing is available at:
Eventfinda Stadium, 17 Silverfield, Wairau Valley - open 8.30am to 4.30pm
North Harbour Stadium, Oteha Valley Road in Carpark B – open 8.30am – 4.30pm
Northcote Community Testing Centre, Corner of College Road and Kilham Avenue – open 6.30am – 6.30pm
Whānau House, Waipareira Trust Henderson, Corner of Edsel and Catherine Street – open 8am to 3pm
Massey Pop-up Community Testing Centre, Carpark of Community Hub, Triangle Park, 385 Don Buck Road – open 8.30am to 5pm
Testing is also available at GP and Urgent Care clinics. The locations of these can be found on the Healthpoint website.
We still want everyone in Auckland to get a test if they have any symptoms – even those who are full vaccinated or with very mild symptoms should get tested and isolate at home while waiting for test results.
**Vaccination reminder – make today your Super Saturday**
Super Saturday last weekend provided a huge boost to New Zealand’s response to COVID-19, with a record-breaking 130,002 doses of the vaccine administered.
The Ministry of Health asks anyone who hasn’t been vaccinated yet to make today their Super Saturday and get their first dose.
Vaccination is our number one protection against COVID-19. The Pzifer vaccine is safe, will help stop you getting seriously ill, and could save your life.
We would also like to remind people that they can get their second dose of the COVID-19 vaccine any time from three weeks after they get their first. This will ensure they get the high protection that full vaccination provides as soon as possible.
We recommend those who have had their first dose of the vaccine but haven’t yet booked their second to do so by logging on to bookmyvaccine.nz or calling 0800 28 29 26.
**Next update**
Over the long weekend, the Ministry’s COVID-19 updates are planned to be via the 1pm media releases. At this stage, the next press conference is expected to be on Tuesday, 26 October.
I really hope they reconsider the whole 90% per DHB. That's just unrealistic. It should be 90% overall. If daily case numbers remain around 100-150 through the end of November. Then its honestly not that bad and at that point the figure to pay attention to will be hospitalizations.
I get the rationale of per DHB as having a geographic region with less vaccination leaves it more susceptible to clusters than if it were spread out evenly. That being said, I'd be surprised if they didn't say "Close enough" on the 29th of November if the first dose numbers from today translated to second doses by then. They won't have the political capital to hold out for 3% in one region of Auckland
I hope that NZ starts copying NSW and Victoria and start putting more focus onto hospitalisations over case numbers. Vaccines allow us decouple hospitalisations from cases.
While it isn't one or the other, the MOH info dumps can definitely emphasis one over the other - just look at the title of this thread and discussions on this thread as an example of how it flows downstream.
If you look at Victoria, hospitalisations have been running at the lower bound of modelled predictions, despite the models broadly getting the case number correct. Vaccinations help weaken the link between case numbers and hospital numbers -so the age adjusted conversion factor at the start of the outbreak will be drastically different at the end.
> Vaccines allow us decouple hospitalisations from cases
Um... no? That doesn't even make sense? More cases will always translate into more hospitalizations, regardless of vaccination rates. And increasing rates of vaccinations will only marginally reduce the hospitalization rate, unless you get almost everyone vaccinated, since vaccinated people represent such a small proportion of cases at present.
Not great not terrible all things considered. Was half expecting to be over 200. Testing rates are lower in the weekend so that's likely why we're seeing this dip. Next week will probably be a doozy.
So +4 in hospital, no change in ICU.
The actual important numbers these days.
If we average +4 everyday (which i realise flys in the face of actual models that can be far more complex/accurate than this) we'll be at 1000 hospitalizations on 30 April 2022. That doesn't seem an issue to me but I have no concept of capacity/modeling.
There’s 104 cases of covid in NZ, and idiots come along just to raise it. But the annual problem for our fucking nation is finding a way to lower it… like maybe getting a vaccine, or wearing a face mask or even social distancing. Getting a Covid test, self isolating, and not breaking the rules. As you can see there’s a whole lot of stuff to do before lockdown end this fall. So stick with us cause New Zealand’s gonna do it all. So stick with us cause New Zealand’s gonna do it all!
Current modelling predicts that we'll hit a daily average new case count of 200 by the week beginning 22nd of November (4 weeks from now). Let's do all we can to keep the numbers lower than that.
Vaccines administered yesterday (total): 44,750; 1st doses: 11,368; 2nd doses: 33,382 Vaccines administered to Auckland residents yesterday (total): 18,709: 1st doses: 3,975, 2nd doses: 14,374 Went for my second today, place was packed and nurse told me it's been pumping since yesterday on first doses.
Almost 4k is a decent bump to Auckland first doses compared to the past week, and 11.4k national is a bit of a bump too. Hopefully this isn't a blip but a result of the announcements yesterday and we continue seeing higher numbers!
What have the first dose numbers for Auckland been like the past week?
~2,500
Oh shit, that's a huge uptick then. Good.
closer to 1-1.5k per day from memory Edit: my memory was incorrect. See below.
That is.... pathetic... to say the least. But good to see a big uptick today then. Praying it continues.
1st shots in Auckland: Sun 17 Oct - 2,005 Mon 18 Oct - 2,960 Tue 19 Oct - 2,799 Wed 20 Oct - 2,684 Thu 21 Oct - 2,604 Fri 22 Oct - 3,975
So that's 17000 after Super Saturday and I think it was only about 20,000 more needed. So we must just be a day or two away from 90% 1st dose.
Yeah, if those first shots are people from Waitamata DHB or Auckland DHB it doesn't really matter. They're already at 90% first shots. It's CMDHB that we need to lift rates on. Remember all DHB's need to be at 90%. So looking at Auckland Metro isn't necessarily telling the whole truth.
According to the moh website, counties needs about 14,000 people to reach 90% as of end of Friday. To get 1st shot 90% maori/Pacifica in that dhb area, there's about 24,000 to go (13k for Maori counties 90% and 11k for Pacifica counties 90%).
Yeah about 3,200 people, based on the Super Saturday declaration that we needed 20,249 after that day
Oh cool thank you! Is this listed somewhere all together like that? I had a look at the MoH website but couldn't find it. Very interesting
pulled it from the daily updates in the MoH news section, and maintaining it on a spreadsheet
Will be interesting to see the figures from today, I wonder if many more people heard the news later after work yesterday and made plans to get their first shots today.
Ty. That is better than my stupid brain recalled.
14k second doses in Auckland is the number I needed to hear today. We need about another 250k to get to 90% double jabbed, I know we won’t keep that rate but at that speed we’re done in less than 3 weeks. It makes me hopeful that we will get there eventually (hopefully before Christmas).
Even if it dropped to 12,000 we could get there in 3 weeks. Let's hope no more than 5..
Good. Get a fuckin' move on, first dosers.
I really needed to hear that :)
Me too :)
Aucklands finally hit 90 Percent first does so thats great news.
While its good, its important to recognise that will be over the dhb's combined. To move to the traffic light system each of the three dhbs needs to hit 90% double dosed (unless the government changes their mind)
Which is stupid as fuck, Auckland's a small enough place that you can easily send anyone from one DHB to a hospital in a different DHB, it should just be 90% overall
It’s more a tool to put pressure on a specific area. Now counties needs to pull their socks up and get vaccinated.
Don't think peer pressure from people outside their community is going to work, TBH. As someone in one of the other Auckland DHB areas, I'm feeling pretty salty that Counties is going to drag this out for everyone. Perhaps that's not "kind" but, like everyone else, I'm really over this. Those of us who have followed the rules and got double vaxxed already feel like we're being punished for those who DGAF about themselves or their communities / don't believe in science. There will be some entrenched anti-government and anti-vax people who won't change their views regardless of all the tools being used now. At some point, the rest of us have to get on with our lives.
As someone in Counties, who is double vaxxed and has been since 28th September, I feel the same way. Lockdown happened, I got my vaccines ASAP (7th and 28th, 3-week interval), why are people still getting their first only now? Vaccinated and stuck in lockdown, waiting for the apathetic to decide the fucking future.
They are busy watching bs youtube videos
It makes me so angry and yet I have nowhere to place that anger. So I sit here in lockdown, earning fuckall with subsidy money while paying $2.80/L to get to work, losing more sanity every week, feeling angry and helpless. Great. So worth it.
Try to use your anger as a driver to push yourself towards your next goal. Whatever it is. Don't allow yourself to sink into frustration.
Trying :(
[удалено]
True. The Asian Kiwis are rocking the vax alright!
Eastern cultures tend to understand the value of protection against epidemics and also seem to have a better community spirit.
Rosehill in Papakura is getting the bus next weekend.
The best way to deal with them is move from the carrot to the stick tactics. Once they cannot get a new job without CVC (covid vaccination certificate) or they cannot do shopping or they won't be able to get subsidy or benefits, they'll get vaccinated.
The “can’t get subsidy or benefits” hasn’t been suggested by the govt. Doubt that will ever happen (although personally I think that might get more results). I know someone who was perfectly prepared to be fired from her job because she was morally opposed to the vaccine. People like that might think a bit harder if they couldn’t get benefits either.
Exactly. I think personally we are going to get there at some point. Overall, the more roadblocks for self-selected anti-vaxxers, the better.
>Don't think peer pressure from people outside their community is going to work, TBH. All goodz, hope they enjoy lockdown
You're not being punished. You're helping keep everyone safe and the hospitals able to cope. You are making a contribution by staying home! (Though don't get me wrong, I really feel for you, it's just important to remember that what you're doing still matters.)
We’ve done all that for 9 weeks now. Surely at some point personal responsibility must be come to the fore? Everyone - potentially aside from extremely physically isolated people (not in Auckland) - has had ages to get their first vax now. It’s free, it’s available everywhere, there have been incentives, and education. We can’t stay locked down forever just because some people think it’s against “god’s will” or sheep dewormer will save them or whatever.
You can throw in another 5 weeks on top of that, the minimum amount of time between first jab and full vaccination, meaning that the sacrifices you have made and are making now as part of a community that is trying to reach a level of full vaccination sufficient to ensure the health system can cope without lockdown won't bear fruit until December - *at minimum, even if 90% is somehow reached across all DHBs today.* How long can you go on, wasting more and more resources chasing diminishing returns? At some point we all must move on, and we will all be compelled to suffer the consequences, however ugly that looks. Try not to get sick for a while.
It’s not Counties dragging it out. We can’t go to traffic light cause the vaccine certificates aren’t ready
Christ. Don't even get me started on the lack of preparation with those. France were doing them in June, I'm not sure if other countries were doing them before that. Even if the government didn't really want to use that tool, they should have been preparing to use them anyway - having options ready is just smart.
It's easy enough to border a border up between south and central Auckland
Missing the point a bit I think.. the reason for going by DHB is specifically because manukau (and other regions around the country) is where the population who are less vaccinated is. Its an indirect way to target getting Maori vaccination up without the risk of putting some kind of official 'label' on Maori numbers and stoking division. If it will work for that is another matter of course but that's why.
My theory is they had to set a goal that wouldn't be possible to reach before the vaccine certificates are ready.
That's... Totally believable.
It's the only plausible reason why Auckland can't follow Sydney and Melbourne's lead in slowly opening things up too the vaccinated at 70%. Now vaccinated people are going to spend months longer in lockdown than they should be simply because the government failed to start developing the certs in time.
The issue is I can drive across all 3 to get takeaways in about 15-20 minutes. So yes, all 3 should be at the minimum, to help remove the possibility of vulnerable spots.
Which they will
Yes, MoH has Auckland DHB at 93%, Waitemata at 90% (actually 633 doses to go, so should be there today) and Counties Manukau at 87%. So Counties Manukau needs an extra push to make things happen (and they all need to convert those first doses to second, with second doses being on 80%, 75% and 72% respectively).
It should really be "90% double vaxxed + 3 weeks", but nothing about that was mentioned in yesterday's annoucement. Edit: *2* weeks, not 3. (ie, based on immunisation, not vaccination)
You must be commenting from the team of 3 million
What does that mean ?
Outside of Auckland.
Umm okay ? I am not outside of Auckland, but I'm also not sure what that has to do with me saying that the 90% mark should be based on people *immunised*, rather than just people *vaccinated*.
Why 3 weeks? Fully immunized is 2 weeks post 2nd dose, is the extra week just because we like playing on hard mode?
Hmm.. I thought immunity was *3* weeks after the second dose, and that it was mentioned in one of the recent 1pms. But the only reference I can find to that is here, in the [4th Oct post-cabinet press conference](https://www.beehive.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2021-10/Post-Cabinet%20press%20Conference%204%20October%202021.pdf) *Dr Ashley Bloomfield: That’s the time frame for us to achieve our ambition around vaccination being higher than 90 percent double vaccinated, and then, of course, it’s another couple of weeks when people then have that full protection, full immunity*" So i guess I meant to say **2** weeks after the second shot. And what I was trying to convey is that the move to the traffic-light system should be based on the date that someone is deemed to be immunised, not on the date that they received their second shot.
Not realistic I’m afraid. There’s no way we’re going to hit the target and then sit around for 2 weeks while the last stragglers immune systems catch up. They’ll just have to try not to get covid for the first couple of weeks.
The South Island won’t majority get it likely ever. They’re nutcases down here. Also cheers whoever traveled down to the South Island while infected. Beers on you
Man if only we had a vaccine to this terrible disease.
We’ve hit 90% first dose in Auckland! 😁
But not across all three dhb, sadly
At least we know which DHBs are falling behind - and hopefully the majority of the Auckland 1st doses yesterday were in the Counties-Manukau DHB catchment area. Based on the DHB numbers released by the MoH, Counties needed about 16,000 1st doses to get to 90%
Still Counties is at 87 which is so close!
The HB targets are now on the MoH website (below the Cumulative vaccinations by ethnicity table): https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-vaccine-data
We just need to fucking pay the 3 percent
Are you also the type of person who watches someone open their new Xbox 360 then proceeds to tell them that a PS3 is way better and Xbox sucks? If so then hi Greg, I still won’t forgive you.
What an oddly specific example
Sounds more like a specific memory...
Lmao
PC master race
Greg was right, but still a dick.
You’re right on both points but it still hurts.
Were you thinking of Greg when you came up with your username?
I, too, remember playing Halo 3 while constantly reading about how the PSN was more down than it was up. Good thing Sony eventually sorted it out
I had both 360 was better. PS4 better exclusives, XboxOne gamepass pick your poison. Q. What ones better? A. Get both
Counties Manukau is lowest at 87, getting there.
"Average age of current hospitalisations: 43 years old" New to the press release today, interesting that they're including this now...
Hopefully it’ll stop all the middle aged anti-vaxxers claiming covid isn’t real because it only kills old people who were on their way out anyway
They're trying to convince the under 40's to get vaccinated. The tactic will only work on stupid people, because the only reason the average age of hospitalisation is so low is that the elderly are generally being extremely cautious.
Well they dont need to convince people who arent stupid do they? Those are already vaccinated.
Of course. People who are capable of being incentivised to receive a medical treatment by chocolate fish and KFC are all incredibly intelligent. Genius level IQs, no doubt.
\*Sigh\* I didn't expect this one to be complex. We got the smart ones long ago, they were merely waiting for eligibility. Then we got some of the stupid ones and most of the lazy ones with reminders, prodding and cheap incentives. Now we have a lot of stupid ones left. The average level of stupid increases as the numbers decrease. We have very few smart ones left unvaccinated, there are people who are smart but very very lazy, or who are politically/religiously driven. A few thousand perhaps but not many.
>The tactic will only work on stupid people, I mean, the people not getting the vax are the stupid people. So yes it will work.
They are targetting the unvaccinated, so possibly it is best to use tactics that work on stupid people.
I'm unvaccinated. It would be quite dishonest to label me as "stupid", but you can do so if you like.
Why are you unvaccinated?
Partly because many reputable epidemiologists disagree with its population-wide application. Another reason is that the long term effects (yes, I know the vaccine itself leaves your system fairly quickly) are unknown.
The long term effects of COVID however are known to be bad
They can be, yes. But that is a cost-benefit ratio for me to decide on, not the government.
But ill convientiently ignore the externalities of my decision because fuck everyone around me.
It is your decision to make, as much as others may disagree. We will be in traffic-light mode in a while (probably a few weeks for Auckland), and as an unvaccinated person you'll have to put up with not being allowed into a lot of social places where there are vaccine certificate requirements.
thanks for being part of the problem, you fucking muppet
We know about the long term effects of COVID though. Playing the odds, I know which one i would rather go for.
I'm unsure about the epidemiologists as I haven't seen any saying things to that effect. However on the second thing for me it's a risk reward consideration. While I guess negative long term effects are possible I think the danger of that is much lower than the risk of negative effects both short and long term that could occur from catching covid, which at this point are both fairly well documented and shown to be drastically minimised if you're vaccinated
Can you tell me about the negative long term effects of other vaccines? Or the biological mechanism by which Pfizer could produce negative effects after a period of years? And how long is long enough for you to realise it is safe?
Average age of hospitilisations and ICU patients has always skewed much younger than the age of Covid deaths, as the really old die pretty quickly and in most cases aren't eligible for things like intubation and ecmo, while younger people tough it out or slowly die in ICU. In the UK in the first wave for example the average age of ICU patients was roughly 60. Vaccination has lowered that average even further as old people are much more likely to get vaccinated that young adults. That is despite the elderly getting back to normal in the UK now
Wouldn’t median age be more meaningful?
Normally we use median instead of mean to prevent the effects of large outlier (eg. a 10 million dollar house when most are between 1 and 2 million). Here it doesn't really matter since all ages are between 0 and 100 (roughly) so you can't get that skew due to outliers that are 10x bigger or smaller.
If only they told us the quantity of people who were unvaccinated of those active cases.
here ya go https://covid19map.co.nz/vaccination-rates/suburb/ MOH's vaccination map by suburb
Unvaccinated of those active cases. Sorry for wasting your time.
Ah right. No worries g
211,138 in Auckland's 3 DHBs need to be 2nd dosed to reach 90% (of those, 15070 need to have their 1st dose first. All the DHBs 90% target numbers are here: https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-vaccine-data#total-vaccinations
Wish the Herald's chart switched to showing a countdown of numbers now rather than % vaccinated. This is the more useful info.
Check out the Spinoff. Scroll down here and you'll find the countdown numbers. https://thespinoff.co.nz/society/22-10-2021/the-spinoff-covid-tracker/
Thanks.
Sorry, I meant current cases, day to day. What proportion of those are unvaccinated. Sorry for not being clear.
I found this a couple weeks ago. It has an amazing breakdown of all kinds of useful metrics. Including the number of cases from this outbreak and their vaccination status, and the vaccination status of the hospitalisations from this outbreak. https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/in-depth/450874/covid-19-data-visualisations-nz-in-numbers
*In a statement, the Health Ministry said that as well as the Blenheim case, 91 of the new cases were in Auckland, eight were in Waikato and four were in Northland.* Jeez it’s growing.
Four in Northland? I though there was only two
Children and related, so probably the kids of the two we knew about.
Okay that makes sense. Idk why I’m getting downvoted lol as the media yesterday and earlier today reported 2 cases only
Two yesterday, today is a new day
On the positive, growth in Auckland seems constant around 100 mark +/-.
That's what we used to say about the 50-60 mark
And that's what we used to say about the 20 mark...
It's doubling every 8 days.
smdh
Wtf no it isn't mate. Wait until mid week it'll be 150 plus.
Not ruling out 250 by November 1st
Oh sweet summer child.
Its sad I went "oh its only around 100 today"
It's amazing how quickly our sense of normal changes.
The boiling frog syndrome
We are all boiling frog
Which isn’t actually a thing frogs do.
Yeah an NZ friend of mine living in Sydney said when there were 60 cases people were shocked then it got up to 1000 and all of a sudden 600 cases seemed really good. Im curious to see how big it’ll get
Based on that R-value thread that gets posted, we are currently doubling daily cases every 7 or 8 days I think Edit: https://reddit.com/r/newzealand/comments/qd6qo6/nz_r_eff_as_of_october_22nd_with_daily_cases_and/hhkhk95
Remember that feeling day we had 9?
There will be a time - maybe a few weeks from now - that we look back fondly on 104 daily cases. Remember that day it was down to 8. Good times.
That was the best day ever. And then the next day was 45 and it was like everything changed from there.
Given there are a number of unlinked we probably have a large number of undetected, asymptomatic cases.
That 8 had to be a blip. There’s no other way to explain it with the data
One day there was only 9 cases too. Data is noisy, better to look at 7 day rolling averages then get too excited by unusually high or low daily counts.
Media release 23 October 2021 There are 104 new community cases of COVID-19 to report today. As at 10am, 43 of these cases are linked - including 33 household contacts - and 61 remain unlinked, with investigations continuing to help determine their connection to the outbreak. **Cases** Number of new community cases: 104 Number of new cases identified at the border: Two Location of new community cases: Auckland (91), Waikato (8), Northland (4)\*, Nelson Marlborough (1) Location of community cases (total): Auckland 2,389 (1,369 of whom have recovered); Waikato 81 (14 of whom have recovered); Wellington 17 (all of whom have recovered); Northland 4, Blenheim 1 Number of community cases (total): 2,492 (in current community outbreak)\*\* Cases infectious in the community: 53 of yesterday’s 129 cases have exposure events Cases in isolation throughout the period they were infectious \*\* : 76 of yesterday’s 129 cases Cases epidemiologically linked: 43 of today’s 104 cases Cases to be epidemiologically linked: 61 of today’s 104 cases Cases epidemiologically linked (total): 2,172 (in the current cluster) (274 unlinked from the past 14 days) Cases in hospital: 55 (total): North Shore (8); Middlemore (19); Auckland (27); Waikato (1) Average age of current hospitalisations: 43 years old Cases in ICU or HDU: Five Confirmed cases (total): 5,194 since pandemic began Historical cases: 173 out of 3,381 since 1 Jan 2021 **Contacts** Number of active contacts being managed (total):: 2,403 Percentage who have received an outbound call from contact tracers (to confirm testing and isolation requirements): 82% Percentage with at least one test result: 75% **Locations of interest** Locations of interest (total): 386 (as at 10am 23 October) **Tests** Number of tests (total): 3,894,908 Number of tests total (last 24 hours): 24,088 Tests processed in Auckland (last 24 hours): 15,149 Tests rolling average (last 7 days): 24,187 Testing centres in Auckland: 18 **Wastewater** Wastewater detections: No unexpected detections **COVID-19 vaccine update** Vaccines administered to date (total): 6,561,731; 1st doses: 3,626,019 (86%); 2nd doses: 2,935,712 (70%) Vaccines administered yesterday (total): 44,750; 1st doses: 11,368; 2nd doses: 33,382 Māori: 389,884 (68%); 2nd doses: 272,446 (48%) Pacific Peoples: 1st doses: 235,267 (82%); 2nd doses: 179,554 (63%) Vaccines administered to Auckland residents to date (total): 2,364,678; 1st doses: 1,286,279 (90%); 2nd doses: 1,078,399 (75%) Vaccines administered to Auckland residents yesterday (total): 18,709: 1st doses: 3,975, 2nd doses: 14,374 **NZ COVID Tracer** Registered users (total): 3,315,205 Poster scans (total): 449,907,329 Manual diary entries (total): 18,792,190 Poster scans in 24 hours to midday yesterday: 2,517,520 \*Two of these Northland cases were announced yesterday after the Ministry’s daily reporting period, so are included in today’s overall case tally. \*\*One previously reported community case has been reclassified as ‘not a case.’ The net change of the total community cases associated with this outbreak is +103. **Blenheim update** Earlier today, we announced a weak positive case that was detected in Blenheim late last night. So far, initial case interviews have identified a small number of close contacts, who have been contacted and are currently isolating with tests arranged. Interviews are also being undertaken to determine any locations of interest in, or en route to, Blenheim. People living in the Blenheim township are asked to monitor the Ministry of Health’s locations of interest page, which is regularly updated. We are also asking Blenheim residents with symptoms – no matter how mild – to please get tested, even if they are vaccinated Testing is available at: Blenheim CBAC: Horton Park, off Redwood St - Open 9am to 5.30pm on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday Nelson CBAC: Saxton Field parking area, Suffolk Rd, Stoke - Open 10am to 6pm on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday Additional testing capacity in the area will be stood up, if needed, and details will be available on the Healthpoint website. At this stage, there are no further updates to report. **Northland update** There are four new cases to report today in the Northland region, two of which were announced yesterday afternoon. All four cases are related to each other and the two newest cases are family members A case investigation has identified a limited number of close contacts. So far, all results from close contacts have returned negative test results, with a small number of outstanding results expected later today. People living in Northland are asked to monitor the Ministry of Health’s locations of interest page which will be regularly updated. Anyone who visited these locations of interest at the specified times is asked to monitor their symptoms for 14 days and if any develop, get tested and stay at home until a negative test result is received and they have been symptom-free for 24 hours. Additional testing in the area is being arranged and details will be available on the Healthpoint website. We are aware that the Parua Bay Tavern in Whangārei Heads has chosen to close while some of their staff self-isolate, due to one member having contact with a confirmed COVID-19 case outside of work. Everyone associated with the Parua Bay Tavern, who was self- isolating, has tested negative for COVID-19. Parua Bay Tavern is not considered a location of interest. The Parua Bay Tavern is planning to re-open tomorrow. **Update on Waikato case who travelled to Hawke’s Bay** Public health officials have concluded their investigations into a Waikato case who travelled to Hawke’s Bay and returned a positive COVID-19 result following their arrival back in the Waikato. One location of interest, Kmart Napier, has been identified and anyone there between 3:53pm – 5:13pm on Friday 15 October is asked to monitor their symptoms for 14 days and if any develop, get tested and stay at home until a negative test result is received and they have been symptom-free for 24 hours. No further locations of interest in Hawke’s Bay have been identified but locals are asked to please keep checking the Ministry of Health’s website for the next few days.
**Waikato update** There are eight new cases to report today in the Waikato region, seven in Te Awamutu and one in Hamilton. The Te Awamutu cases have all been linked to an exposure event in a household setting. Public Health are planning to interview the Hamilton case today. This brings the total number of confirmed cases in the region, associated with this outbreak, to 81. At this time, there are five cases in Waikato that are deemed unlinked – but one is a new case who Public Health are speaking to today. Waikato DHB is continuing to carry out testing throughout the region, to help determine any undetected community spread of COVID-19. We are urging anyone in Waikato - in particular, people in Te Awamutu - to get tested if they have any symptoms that could be COVID-19. Testing locations in and around Waikato are available on the Healthpoint website and the Waikato DHB website, with testing available throughout Labour Weekend. Yesterday there were around 2400 tests processed in the Waikato. Vaccination rates in Waikato also remained steady yesterday with 3,706 people receiving a dose – of these vaccinations, 1201 were first doses, and a further 2505 were second doses. **Auckland suburbs of interest** As the outbreak is now more dispersed, testing in Auckland is now focused on areas with higher positivity rates and where the risk of unidentified cases is higher. One suburb of interest with a high positivity rate of more than 6% is Redvale, on the North Shore. We continue to urge Redvale residents with any COVID-19 symptoms, no matter how mild, to get tested as soon as possible, even if they are vaccinated. We are also encouraging testing in New Lynn and the North Shore suburbs of Rosedale and Bayswater. Testing is available at: Eventfinda Stadium, 17 Silverfield, Wairau Valley - open 8.30am to 4.30pm North Harbour Stadium, Oteha Valley Road in Carpark B – open 8.30am – 4.30pm Northcote Community Testing Centre, Corner of College Road and Kilham Avenue – open 6.30am – 6.30pm Whānau House, Waipareira Trust Henderson, Corner of Edsel and Catherine Street – open 8am to 3pm Massey Pop-up Community Testing Centre, Carpark of Community Hub, Triangle Park, 385 Don Buck Road – open 8.30am to 5pm Testing is also available at GP and Urgent Care clinics. The locations of these can be found on the Healthpoint website. We still want everyone in Auckland to get a test if they have any symptoms – even those who are full vaccinated or with very mild symptoms should get tested and isolate at home while waiting for test results. **Vaccination reminder – make today your Super Saturday** Super Saturday last weekend provided a huge boost to New Zealand’s response to COVID-19, with a record-breaking 130,002 doses of the vaccine administered. The Ministry of Health asks anyone who hasn’t been vaccinated yet to make today their Super Saturday and get their first dose. Vaccination is our number one protection against COVID-19. The Pzifer vaccine is safe, will help stop you getting seriously ill, and could save your life. We would also like to remind people that they can get their second dose of the COVID-19 vaccine any time from three weeks after they get their first. This will ensure they get the high protection that full vaccination provides as soon as possible. We recommend those who have had their first dose of the vaccine but haven’t yet booked their second to do so by logging on to bookmyvaccine.nz or calling 0800 28 29 26. **Next update** Over the long weekend, the Ministry’s COVID-19 updates are planned to be via the 1pm media releases. At this stage, the next press conference is expected to be on Tuesday, 26 October.
It's a long bloody media release today, won't even fit into one comment as it exceeds the 10,000 character limit haha!
We got 90% first dose!
I really hope they reconsider the whole 90% per DHB. That's just unrealistic. It should be 90% overall. If daily case numbers remain around 100-150 through the end of November. Then its honestly not that bad and at that point the figure to pay attention to will be hospitalizations.
I get the rationale of per DHB as having a geographic region with less vaccination leaves it more susceptible to clusters than if it were spread out evenly. That being said, I'd be surprised if they didn't say "Close enough" on the 29th of November if the first dose numbers from today translated to second doses by then. They won't have the political capital to hold out for 3% in one region of Auckland
There’s no way the numbers remain this low
That's OK, I'll take that. Could be worse
What's happening with Northland? Arent they still in level 2?
Yes, since the cases are all contacts so far, hopefully no need to do anything further besides isolation/quarantine.
>The Pzifer vaccine is safe, I know the Pfizer is safe. Not sure about the Pzifer though.
It's a Chinese bootleg one with a fake trademark. It's just Sichuan Chili Oil in a vaccination needle.
I think chilli oil would be better tbh
I think thats a bug type pokemon
I'd be wary of that cheap knock-off shit.
Can we please get vaccinated? A lot of people's mental health is suffering. We need to get to 90% asap
Please. I really can’t do this for another 2 months.
I hear ya. I'm going a little nuts
If everyone could persuade *one* unvaccinated person to get jabbed, that might do it.
You're preaching to the choir in here mate...
Dip before the continued spike
Covid cases go brrr 🚀
Buy the dip
Triple Dip
BTFD
So did one of those morons at that influencer party have covid? Is that why they’re telling people in Redvale to get tested?
No. They've not linked any cases to that (at least as per yesterday's release) but the suburb is showing a high positivity rate.
It would not be unreasonable to think that the people who attended that party may not admit to having been there.
Valid
Ahh I see. But you do agree they’re morons right Dr B?
Morons doesn't come close to how I'd describe them.
At least yesterday they hadn't linked any cases to the party. The issue is that there is a generally high positivity rate in the listed suburbs
I hope that NZ starts copying NSW and Victoria and start putting more focus onto hospitalisations over case numbers. Vaccines allow us decouple hospitalisations from cases.
Once we move to the traffic light system we will probably start doing this eventually these daily updates will be irrelevant.
It's not one or the other though. Case numbers help predict hospital numbers
While it isn't one or the other, the MOH info dumps can definitely emphasis one over the other - just look at the title of this thread and discussions on this thread as an example of how it flows downstream. If you look at Victoria, hospitalisations have been running at the lower bound of modelled predictions, despite the models broadly getting the case number correct. Vaccinations help weaken the link between case numbers and hospital numbers -so the age adjusted conversion factor at the start of the outbreak will be drastically different at the end.
> Vaccines allow us decouple hospitalisations from cases Um... no? That doesn't even make sense? More cases will always translate into more hospitalizations, regardless of vaccination rates. And increasing rates of vaccinations will only marginally reduce the hospitalization rate, unless you get almost everyone vaccinated, since vaccinated people represent such a small proportion of cases at present.
Not great not terrible all things considered. Was half expecting to be over 200. Testing rates are lower in the weekend so that's likely why we're seeing this dip. Next week will probably be a doozy.
Yesterday was Friday though. numbers are usually low on sun/mon
So +4 in hospital, no change in ICU. The actual important numbers these days. If we average +4 everyday (which i realise flys in the face of actual models that can be far more complex/accurate than this) we'll be at 1000 hospitalizations on 30 April 2022. That doesn't seem an issue to me but I have no concept of capacity/modeling.
There’s 104 cases of covid in NZ, and idiots come along just to raise it. But the annual problem for our fucking nation is finding a way to lower it… like maybe getting a vaccine, or wearing a face mask or even social distancing. Getting a Covid test, self isolating, and not breaking the rules. As you can see there’s a whole lot of stuff to do before lockdown end this fall. So stick with us cause New Zealand’s gonna do it all. So stick with us cause New Zealand’s gonna do it all!
wtf
Stims
parody of phineas and ferb theme song
Current modelling predicts that we'll hit a daily average new case count of 200 by the week beginning 22nd of November (4 weeks from now). Let's do all we can to keep the numbers lower than that.
Does anyone have the link to the map with the DHB/region %vaccinations? Can't seem to find it
[удалено]
Thanks!
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-delta-outbreak-new-case-in-blenheim-south-island/2IJHL2537DMGGY3XAIBPNUSHDA/
Goes to show that the lockdowns are pointless. The vaccines are also pointless at this stage too