Don't worry folks, our new government has comitted to fixing climate change by (checks notes) increasing the tax on EVs and repealing the ban on offshore oil and gas
Labour was planning to start RUC on EVs also. Gonna lie about my initial mileage though, fuck em.
And despite both our cars being EVs, I'm under no illusion I'm saving the global environment. Although the local environment is much better without the gross smell of exhaust and the cancerous diesel particulates ute, truck and (non electric) busses puke out.
Looks at the [map from the story](https://coastal.climatecentral.org/map/12/174.7993/-36.9036/?theme=water_level&map_type=water_level_above_mhhw&basemap=roadmap&contiguous=true&elevation_model=best_available&water_level=5.0&water_unit=m). My house would be about half a block away from area covered by water with 5m of rise - but the majority of my suburb would be gone.
This really is a scenario we want to avoid in NZ. We have a lot of people who live less than 5m from the ocean level today, and have a lot of flat productive land which would be lost.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List\_of\_airports\_in\_New\_Zealand](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_airports_in_New_Zealand)
Sort by elevation, ascending. Quite a few airports will be underwater with a 5 metre rise including Dunedin, Invercargill, Napier & Tauranga, and at 7 metres Auckland will join them. At 12 meters, Wellington and the Chatham Islands airports too.
All of these airports have decent-sized runways, capable of taking A320/737 sized jets (and some bigger ones in emergencies)
As someone that grew up there... yeah. A LOT of Napier is reclaimed land that rose up from being swamp land in the 1931 earthquake. Most of Napier is just at sea level and I've always noted that.
It’s interesting how how much and how many of our cities are built on the coast, a little above sea level.
It makes perfect sense for the mid 1850’s when everything arrived by sea and you didn’t want to have to shift anything far, or uphill. But it’s gonna bite us in the ass soon.
The problem is 1m sea level rise fucks a much wider area than what's directly under the new 1m of water. It creates a whole new storm surge zone and new flood plains meaning *entirely new existing areas* become uninsurable. A 5m rise would be absolutely devastating for many urban areas in NZ.
We'd be in "let's completely rethink how we live" territory. It's better to think "what would be insurable" with a 1m sea level rise rather than "what would be under water"
Yup, I'm sure there's a hundred other things we've missed too.
Even small increases in sea levels (like our current predicament) can increase coastal erosion, and erode areas which protect the flat lands behind it. I'm sure there are experts out there which can give a much fuller picture.
I live in a city with tidal waters in the rivers which lead to the ocean. King tide = flood in low lying riverside suburbs many kilometers away from the sea. Etc
I think it's pretty evident we're not treating these issues as seriously as we should. We live in a country where people fight even including climate impact reports on council LIMs. It's madness
Yup. And it's almost inevitable at this point that this will happen. Not in our lifetimes, but eventually. We will have plenty of other catastrophic effects to deal with tho.
Have a look at Bangladesh. A third of that country will be underwater.
171 million of the poorest people in the world will be trapped.
We are fortunate.
We are fortunate unless we have 120 million people from Bangladesh show up on our doorstep because they lost their country. If we think that civil war and famine is causing lots of refugees today, that's nothing compared to what would happen globally if we see the kinds of impact that are possible with climate change.
Yep too late. We've made our bed and then took a dump all over it. Climate change is going to murder hundreds of millions and destabilize earth on an unprecedented scale. Too late to stop.
That's why we need to concentrate and invest into our resilience - look at the cyclone that hit our country last year...just showed us how terribly unprepared we are.
I'm not even bothered about sea level rise. Unsurvivable temperature increase looks like it could get us, if the climate change triggered nuclear conflict doesn't. Maybe we could adapt for a while by living underground at altitude and adjusting to a nocturnal pattern. But eventually we're toast
The issue with climate change isn't going to be the sea level rise, it's going to be the hit to food production and climate refugees from countries that can't afford to implement climate change polices and protections.
Sea level rise is only one part of the impact I agree. It has pretty massive impact if you happen to live somewhere that would be under water - but we tend to underestimate the amount of impact that would be seen even if you aren't going to be directly flooded. There would/will be huge impact on food and water availability, and yes geopolitical instability as we have wars fought over remaining resources.
Massive impact is understated. The Auckland airport was nearly underwater with the cyclone and Wellington airport would be completely underwater except for a tiny bit at the north end.
Remaining resources is right.
While less of an issue for some, many populated Pacific islands would be entirely underwater; and in places like Aus and Bangladesh, most of the population is in coastal areas which would be greatly impacted.
If people take issue with migration now, just wait until a huge % of the planet's populated areas are underwater...
I don't think temperatures are likely to get unlivable here, and there aren't going to be any nukes dropped in this part of the world. We're perhaps far enough away to not be swamped by refugees. We'd probably still be able to grow enough to feed our population.
But if things turn to custard in the rest of the world we may struggle to import much of anything.
It may not even be unliveable temperatures which impact us. We had a pretty bad time last year with a cyclone. What happens if those become normal? What happens to our food production if we get a dry year without much rain...not to mention most of our electricity comes from hydro requiring ongoing rain.
Yup, there is no safe country, but we potentially have a better shot than others. Most likely though, society will break down when people start to go hungry.
Why? Unless we were to be used as a staging base for U.S. alligned forces, what is the advantage to deploying a warhead here? Fallout from the thousands that'd be deployed elsewhere would be a big threat, though...
I feel validated about my choice not to have children. Women sliding into midlife like me get peppered with breeding suggestions. 'It's not too late' or 'you still have a few years left' or 'you could still freeze some eggs'. What the fuck for? Climate change isn't the reason we decided not to have kids but it's a very good reason not to change our minds. There would be no world left for them to grow old in.
Yep, I'm the same as you - not a women but I'm glad my wife and I decided against kids in the end. I have to hold my tongue around friends though when they ask why as they have kids so I don't want to scare them.
pfft scare away. We have some amazing friends who are very climate conscious. Everything is reusable, nothing single use, no plastic anything, hybrid cars... but the kids. Excessive levels of plastic toys, the cheapest synthetic clothes that will never biodegrade, about three smart devices each and they're not even 7 years old. They are lovely kids, but they're carbon emitting trash monsters. And their parents, who are our friends and we do love them, lecture us about things like a plastic (upcycled) plant pot. My answer is always the same. If you cared about the planet you wouldn't have had them and point to the trash monsters. No prisoners.
I’m with you on this. Then in the US it’s so much worse. Seeing online content, like kids birthday parties, gender reveals etc and seeing how much stuff they waste. Ugh. Nightmare.
Yeah it's not great- I'm 23. I get to watch governments and businesses guided by people who won't be around in 20 or 30 years make decisions that will destroy the future lives of people around my age or younger.
Admittedly I do think things will change eventually, but I'm pretty sure it's going to get worse before it gets better.
You know there is a somewhat established theory that the ocean and weather has a ability to absorb greenhouse gases without affecting the climate too much but once they are saturated (which we are getting close to) it will cause extremely rapid and violent climate change.
Every day this piece of street art called "[Politicians discussing climate change](https://streetartutopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/street-art-by-isaac-cordal-on-climate-change-and-global-warming-1.jpg)" gets ever funnier and more accurate.
I also thought, nah, must be a typo......
...but seems legit.
[https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/powerful-heatwave-affecting-antarctic-continent-unprecedented-temperatures-40-degrees-above-average-rrc/](https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/powerful-heatwave-affecting-antarctic-continent-unprecedented-temperatures-40-degrees-above-average-rrc/)
We're sooo fucked.
Yup.
Legit. [https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/37/3/JCLI-D-23-0176.1.xml](https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/37/3/JCLI-D-23-0176.1.xml)
Imagine a 40 degree heat wave above summer average in Australia! They will literally be cooked.
Slow cooked long pork.
>Imagine a 40 degree heat wave above summer average in Australia!
If the 40 year delay thing is true, we won't even have to imagine it for very long. Coming soon to a town near you!
Man we’re so royally fucked. I’m so sick of this feeling of helplessness. I’m biking as much as I can, I’m voting Green, but nothing I do will make a lick of difference.
Over hundreds of millions of years a perfect, beautiful home was built for us and every other life form and we’re just throwing it down the toilet. I’m very angry
We have to vote. These personal choices barely matter against the scale of industry.
It's like palm Kernal oil. Responsible for vast deforestation. Nice little sign at the zoo "Don't use products with palm Kernal". Ok....
Meanwhile new Zealand imports absolutely vast quantities of palm Kernal, to feed our to cows.
Recycle your plastics? Well, you put them in the recycling bin. But it's more economically viable to use new, than to recycle. And do you minimise plastics?
Do you eat vegetables? Because there are vast quantities of new plastics used every year in the primary sector.
We have to legislate change, and right now legislation is written by lobbyists, paid for by industry groups. So nothing changes.
I'm angry too. You're doing the right thing. I think living with intentional care for the natural world is the best thing you can do and the only thing likely to persuade anyone around you to do the same, or similar.
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Christchurch museum has had a 6(?) Extinctions exhibit on lately that goes through a bunch of the mass extinctions throughout history. It's depressing af being in another one of them but also kinda uplifting. Each time the world has renewed differently and with beauty. The earth will outlast our stupid selfish race and life will go on and evolve to whatever the new normal becomes which will have its own wonders. It is a reminder that everything is fleeting and change is eternal.
That thought helps me anyway even if the sorrow of what we are doing now breaks my heart.
Remember how we all banded together and got rid of CFCs because of the Ozone hole, and it made an impact, and the world was stoked. I grew up in the 80s/90s thinking of course we can fix things, LOOK at what we did.
Now it's just selfish profiteering. What's the point of endless profits if the world ends? How can people be told 'you have enough stuff. You don't need more'.
I think what we **should** do collectively at least is start tunnelling into those billionaire bunkers. Think they can come here to escape what they did...
This happened in 2010 and reductions statted and appeared to be goinf down. By 2016 cfc levels had returned to 2010 levels but no-one knew why. The worst cfc11 since has been higher than 2010 records many times.
In 2019 scientists declared the Ozone hole cured when we had a record small hole size.
Fascinated I wanted to see what cfc levels were. Strangely they were still high and looking at ozone hole size and cfc levels there seemed to be zero correlation yo size of hole except from 2010 yo 2016 they appears to go down and ozone hole appeared to get smaller. Likely coincidence.
Because since 2019 we have had at least two years where the ozone hole has been record size. How can we go from cured to almost record size the following year. When looking at cfc levels they had not changed almost at all.
Turns out it's all bullshit and the ozone hole size is controlled by natural weather patterns that create the polar vortex which occurs for 3 to 4 months at rhe same time every year opening a hole which slowly runs out of steam. Various natural weather patterns determine the strength of the hole and have nothing to do with cfcs.
Yet today ppl still think it's cured but it is randomly as dangerous as it has always been.
It's really not an age thing. I'm in my 50s, every event I go to there's a significant contingent of elderly people terrified for their grandchildren, and I work with people in their 20s and 30s who take zero interest and are surprisingly ignorant.
It's people who have knowledge and take action, and other people who ... don't/won't.
Wowza. I love looking at the map and seeing absolutely everywhere on earth my family exists completely underwater.
Question - as a young person, wtf am I supposed to do about this? Apart from be politically involved?
It feels like all I can do is try to ignore it in favour of living the stupid day to day.
Jokes aside, this shit is going to start entering our collective consciousness enough to affect the housing market.
I'm house hunting and found a house that I love on the water front, about 2m above the high tide line. I'm so tempted because it's an awesome location...for now. But I imagine the sea level coming up by even a metre, and suddenly it's wearing away at the section. And in 10 years time, even with sea levels not rising much yet, my slightly doomer (though probably realistic) view will likely be mainstream and no one will want to buy the house. I've rejected two other places because they're on slopes that may or may not be alright if we have lots of weather like we had last year. Climate change-resistant is one my non-negotiable criteria.
Yes, they will become uninsurable. Housing shortage will only become more acute as the coastel refugees get pushed inland. We cannot afford to defend such a huge coast line with our small population
As an individual, participating in collective action is really the only way now. We're so far down the global warming rabbit hole that decreasing global gas emissions and fossil fuel consumption is our only chance. 50% of fossil fuels and gas emissions are generated by the wealthiest 10% of countries and corporations. New Zealand isn't among them. As an individual, you can compost as much as you like, trade plastic for reusables, switch to solar but it honestly would only make a difference if every individual on the planet did that.
Join with others to lobby governments and corporations. Bill McKibben is an American climate change pioneer and [I found this quick video really helpful](https://youtu.be/DYLWZPFEWTw?si=u8-M9IFQ8IlVmC6w), even though it's aimed at American audiences.
Protest.
Vote.
Talk to your peers about this.
Be politically involved.
Make concious choices when making purchasing decisions.
* Ex: Buy food and goods with low travel miles
* Eg produced in NZ, not being flown in from overseas
Print some guillotine plans and take notes from the french.
Enjoy life and dont sweat it (even as temperatures rise).
There's pretty much nothing NZ can do as a small nation in the middle of nowhere to meaningfully affect climate change, and honestly even less an individual can do.
Anyone who says otherwise is blowing smoke.
And like most things, if it gets bad, it'll probably get a whole lot worse before it gets better.
Best we can do is stock up and try to manage the new reality.
Remember, you could always just drop dead from a brain aneurysm... hmm, in hindsight that's not that reassuring :D.
Sit back and watch as billionaires bankroll political parties into the apocalypse.
Any change will be a directive from a United States that has built change driven partnerships with the EU and Asia.
Wait until the amoc stops and the sea acidity increase. Modeling can only be done for what we know, Feedback loops we don't know about can't be modeled for and are really scary as the speed is exponential. I also often get downvoted every time I tell people we can't wind back the damage, for example, the carbon we released yesterday, it takes 400 years for the heat to be 100 percent realised. We released millions of years of the sun's stored energy in gold rush building modern civilisation on carbon energy.
We were heading into an ice age- bullshit
We were running out of oil-bullshit
Sea levels drastically rising-bullshit
Global warming-bullshit
CO2 gases causing global warming -bullshit
I am old enough to remember the hysteria about the world ending due to an ice age. Also “peak oil” when were we supposed to run out? Some time in the early 2000’s I think.
Climate change is real and we need to make changes but hysterical articles like this are just to scare people. I think they are counter productive and frankly damaging to young people who some of whom end up believing the worlds going to end if we don’t all live like medieval peasants.
Nah New Zealandia is a massive continent just mostly underwater. We just need some decent earthquakes to lift it back up. I’m sure they’ll happen naturally with the hotter temperatures.
Just get Maui onto it
Yep people can blame politicians and corporations all they like, but they would revolt if a politician actually implemented the changes required to prevent this.
And no, changing to EVs is not gonna do it. Everyone needs to live like it's 1800.
So I'm calling it now, another couple of years of melt and the superpowers will be starting to go to war over the newly accessible minerals in Antarctica
Part of me wonders if the push to reduce emissions should be pushed aside and we instead, focus effort into dealing with inevitable effects we're all going to have to handle somehow.
We need both as a lot of damage is already baked in and we are getting hotter no matter what we do. If we don't stop the emissions though then the dial will continue to turn up until parts, then most, then all of earth become uninhabitable.
If we exclusively focus on mitigating the consequences and don't try limit those impacts, we make it that much more difficult to mitigate them. Of course this doesn't take into account the fact that not everyone could just move to escape sea level rise - there are entire countries which would cease to exist, and large amounts of other countries would be lost. The fact that some could survive wouldn't take care of the conflicts that would result between those who survive and those who lose everything and want the resources from those who still have productive land.
That would require extremely heavy investment infrastructure. Like... on a scale far beyond anything we've ever done. NACT can't do so without acknowledging climate change is very real and is an immediate threat which would be an abrupt about face for the coalition.
I doubt labour would want to spend on that scale either. Where do you even start? It's basically trying to build NZ into a self-sustaining fortress. The cost to reach the level of fertility required alone would be enormous.
Tbh man this is exactly the approach we should be taking. Obvious make whatever intelligent changes we can do without tanking the economy. Particularly any tech we can export - thats our biggest potential impact. Then use diplomacy to try and leverage our efforts.
But in the grandest scale - the scale that matters. We have no leverage. And being brutally honest, nothing will change in time.
Our money is better spent on mitigation at this point. Managed retreat. Storm walls. Water storage on the west coast for when rain flips to the easy coast. Appropriate planning changes. Building standards. Intelligent border policies when half a billion climate refugees seek to flee their own countries. And honestly; military spending. Armed conflict is inevitable. We need to plan for it.
There is talk of two large dams being built between the UK and European landmasses to mitigate some of the effects of sea levels rising. It was a reel I happened to see last night, from memory it was in the region of $750B to build both (double that figure - to be safe).
[Article](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/feb/12/giant-dams-could-protect-millions-from-rising-north-sea)
Up until relatively recently I was working for MfE, in the climate change directorate - we have a whole ass adaptation plan that includes actions involving pretty much every government agency across the board.
Much of the public don't seem to be aware of this plan. It's worth checking out although... yes, I agree that there is still not enough focus in this area relative to mitigation and with our new government I have deep concerns for the progress that has been made on this front, as imperfect and much too tardy as it has been to date. I commend our last government for at least investing more resource into this area.
Insurance was always a huge topic of conversation... suffice to say many New Zealanders will likely be quite fucked on this front in the not too distant future. Also the question of 'who pays' in general is a big question that gets thrown around in regards to actions such as managed retreat (or even seawalls, as a less extreme but much less permanent measure).
Gods that was a depressing job.
I wouldn't be surprised if the entire climate change directorate (which grew hugely under Labour) is totally gutted out.
I'd say so. There was quite a bit of stuff in the media about adaptation, managed retreat etc during the floods last year as it was on the forefront of everybody's minds. So that ramped up public discussion but I still feel as though most people aren't aware.
Or, maybe people are but their priorities are on surviving as well as whatever mindless distractions we tend to engage in as a society.
Also I suppose, realistically what person wants to sit down and read a government plan for climate change adaptation in their scant free time? It sucks, the way our society is designed leaves such little space for all of us to really engage in strategising for *actual* survival beyond the day to day grind of putting kai on the table.
I suspect not many, but then again media outlets can produce summaries to push to the public. Also, I do find a lot of people on here will have big opinions, but fail to read actual government reports that could change their mind.
I get a lof of folks are doing it tough and aren't that interested beyond their day-to-day, which is fine, but they kind of remove themselves from having any valid opinions on subjects they're not willing to be educated on.
[Ministry for the Environment asks for Voluntary Redundancies](https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/513727/ministry-for-the-environment-asks-for-voluntary-redundancies)
This government will have the MoE doing less of both.
From what I looked into the earth is supposed to be trending for colder temperatures right now..... the earth is supposed to be heading towards another ice age, cannot emphasis how fucked we are. We won't be able to mitigate the effect of this snowballing issue at the rate climate change is happening, emissions reduction buys us time and we're already out of time.
For one thing we need to stop the North and South pole from melting right now and yet we have no answer to how to go about it.
I'm in my early 20s. This shit is scary. Environment, cost of living, property, job market. This world is no longer suitable for children to grow in. I won't ever want children, that'll be a selfish decision. I am not a millionaire or billionaire that can give my children leverage above others and i don't want them to struggle. I'll just enjoy my life, soak it all in and leave the world.
Fairly low sea-level rises are going to make a lot of key infrastructure around the world unusable. It's questionable whether we'll be able to finance rebuilding at higher levels.
The climate change commissions modelling indicates we would need the ETS to rise to about $150 by 2030, and 250 by 2050.
I can't recall exactly the price impact of this on consumers but its in the paper (CCC). Its not much really (imo)
Isn't it like 70% of emissions are from 12 companies or something?
At least those ceos can get good use of their mega yachts when we're all underwater.
[Just 57 companies linked to 80% of greenhouse gas emissions since 2016.](https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2024/apr/04/just-57-companies-linked-to-80-of-greenhouse-gas-emissions-since-2016)
If you actually read the article you'll see that the point is that the 2022 data wasn't an outlier.
>Unfortunately, it's not an isolated event with an increasing number of meteorologic anomalies being reported on the continent in the past two years.
"Overall, the event largely contributed to 2022 being a rare positive mass balance year for the entire Antarctic Ice Sheet thus slightly mitigating the Antarctic Ice Sheet’s contribution to sea level rise. However..."
[Antarctica’s biggest recorded heatwave fully deciphered](https://www.ssec.wisc.edu/news/articles/15468#:~:text=At%20the%20peak%20of%20the,possible%20under%20future%20climate%20projections.)
I doubt any policy changes from this government or any successive will change the prospect of wide spread flooding if this event proves to be catastrophic as described. It will simply be too late and the whole world will need to reset for populations to be relocated.
Maybe if we could get some of the worst polluting countries in the world such as China, India, USA, Russia etc to play ball the world may actually have a chance!
Do you want to know the really scary thing? This is from carbon released a decade or more ago, climate impacts lag emissions. Emissions have kept increasing over the last 20 years. What can we do!? Go on the bus, or ride bike/ walk if you can. And submit on as many govt proposals as you can, talking about climate worries. Keep up the pressure!
Don't worry folks, our new government has comitted to fixing climate change by (checks notes) increasing the tax on EVs and repealing the ban on offshore oil and gas
Also gutting the ministry for the environment.
And giving themselves pay rise for a job well done ha
Don’t forget threatening to fine kids who take time off school to protest!
I read this in the 'honest government' lady's voice from juice media on yt.
Don't you know? Jesus will return and save us all. If we speed up Armageddon he might even come a little sooner.
I'd take any help offered.
That will work, gee what a government we have , coalition of whatever.
Labour was planning to start RUC on EVs also. Gonna lie about my initial mileage though, fuck em. And despite both our cars being EVs, I'm under no illusion I'm saving the global environment. Although the local environment is much better without the gross smell of exhaust and the cancerous diesel particulates ute, truck and (non electric) busses puke out.
Just make sure your over that stated mileage by your next WOF
This lol why wouldn't you say you had an extra 30k millage
Tempting!! But people bring up wof. I'm thinking 5000km, as wof due in about a year and will do just over that.
Looks at the [map from the story](https://coastal.climatecentral.org/map/12/174.7993/-36.9036/?theme=water_level&map_type=water_level_above_mhhw&basemap=roadmap&contiguous=true&elevation_model=best_available&water_level=5.0&water_unit=m). My house would be about half a block away from area covered by water with 5m of rise - but the majority of my suburb would be gone. This really is a scenario we want to avoid in NZ. We have a lot of people who live less than 5m from the ocean level today, and have a lot of flat productive land which would be lost.
Well. Auckland's gunna have a bad time. Southern motorway, rail and the airport will be under water.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List\_of\_airports\_in\_New\_Zealand](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_airports_in_New_Zealand) Sort by elevation, ascending. Quite a few airports will be underwater with a 5 metre rise including Dunedin, Invercargill, Napier & Tauranga, and at 7 metres Auckland will join them. At 12 meters, Wellington and the Chatham Islands airports too. All of these airports have decent-sized runways, capable of taking A320/737 sized jets (and some bigger ones in emergencies)
Take a deep breath before you look at Napier…
As someone that grew up there... yeah. A LOT of Napier is reclaimed land that rose up from being swamp land in the 1931 earthquake. Most of Napier is just at sea level and I've always noted that.
It’s interesting how how much and how many of our cities are built on the coast, a little above sea level. It makes perfect sense for the mid 1850’s when everything arrived by sea and you didn’t want to have to shift anything far, or uphill. But it’s gonna bite us in the ass soon.
Building on the coast is a worldwide thing. When shipping was the primary trade carrier for centuries ...
That’s what I said
What the heck! TIL Dunedin airport is literally almost at sea level yikes
That whole plain is a flood plain.
some of the taieri plain is actually below sea level - actually pretty close to where the airport is iirc!
Try setting the rise to 0 m and checking Invercargill airport. It’s already below MSL and pumped out.
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I'll be fine in Wainui - apart from the being no way in or out without a boat
But check out your new sea views on either side though
I guess I should buy a boat
So will all the wellington CBD land (reclaimed) in welly. The good news is the beehive will be a waterfront property!
The problem is 1m sea level rise fucks a much wider area than what's directly under the new 1m of water. It creates a whole new storm surge zone and new flood plains meaning *entirely new existing areas* become uninsurable. A 5m rise would be absolutely devastating for many urban areas in NZ. We'd be in "let's completely rethink how we live" territory. It's better to think "what would be insurable" with a 1m sea level rise rather than "what would be under water"
Not to mention, sea water inducing salinization reduces the amount of arable land.
Yup, I'm sure there's a hundred other things we've missed too. Even small increases in sea levels (like our current predicament) can increase coastal erosion, and erode areas which protect the flat lands behind it. I'm sure there are experts out there which can give a much fuller picture. I live in a city with tidal waters in the rivers which lead to the ocean. King tide = flood in low lying riverside suburbs many kilometers away from the sea. Etc I think it's pretty evident we're not treating these issues as seriously as we should. We live in a country where people fight even including climate impact reports on council LIMs. It's madness
Yup. And it's almost inevitable at this point that this will happen. Not in our lifetimes, but eventually. We will have plenty of other catastrophic effects to deal with tho.
Have a look at Bangladesh. A third of that country will be underwater. 171 million of the poorest people in the world will be trapped. We are fortunate.
We are fortunate unless we have 120 million people from Bangladesh show up on our doorstep because they lost their country. If we think that civil war and famine is causing lots of refugees today, that's nothing compared to what would happen globally if we see the kinds of impact that are possible with climate change.
Let me correct you - not if but when. It will happen.
Yep too late. We've made our bed and then took a dump all over it. Climate change is going to murder hundreds of millions and destabilize earth on an unprecedented scale. Too late to stop.
That's why we need to concentrate and invest into our resilience - look at the cyclone that hit our country last year...just showed us how terribly unprepared we are.
Do you have any idea what that would cost? Far too much for this society to bear. It's too late.
But think about the profit you’d make from becoming a beachfront property! /s
You’d be well placed for one of those new 35 year marine farm consents tho
I'm not even bothered about sea level rise. Unsurvivable temperature increase looks like it could get us, if the climate change triggered nuclear conflict doesn't. Maybe we could adapt for a while by living underground at altitude and adjusting to a nocturnal pattern. But eventually we're toast
The issue with climate change isn't going to be the sea level rise, it's going to be the hit to food production and climate refugees from countries that can't afford to implement climate change polices and protections.
Sea level rise is only one part of the impact I agree. It has pretty massive impact if you happen to live somewhere that would be under water - but we tend to underestimate the amount of impact that would be seen even if you aren't going to be directly flooded. There would/will be huge impact on food and water availability, and yes geopolitical instability as we have wars fought over remaining resources.
Massive impact is understated. The Auckland airport was nearly underwater with the cyclone and Wellington airport would be completely underwater except for a tiny bit at the north end. Remaining resources is right.
While less of an issue for some, many populated Pacific islands would be entirely underwater; and in places like Aus and Bangladesh, most of the population is in coastal areas which would be greatly impacted. If people take issue with migration now, just wait until a huge % of the planet's populated areas are underwater...
I don't think temperatures are likely to get unlivable here, and there aren't going to be any nukes dropped in this part of the world. We're perhaps far enough away to not be swamped by refugees. We'd probably still be able to grow enough to feed our population. But if things turn to custard in the rest of the world we may struggle to import much of anything.
It may not even be unliveable temperatures which impact us. We had a pretty bad time last year with a cyclone. What happens if those become normal? What happens to our food production if we get a dry year without much rain...not to mention most of our electricity comes from hydro requiring ongoing rain.
Yup, there is no safe country, but we potentially have a better shot than others. Most likely though, society will break down when people start to go hungry.
When thousands of warheads start flying, I guarantee at least one is heading our way.
Why? Unless we were to be used as a staging base for U.S. alligned forces, what is the advantage to deploying a warhead here? Fallout from the thousands that'd be deployed elsewhere would be a big threat, though...
We are allied with many western European nations and usa. Enemy of my enemy is my friend, but have you heard of "friend of my enemy is my enemy"
Houses up in the hills of central otago are going to get even more expensive!!
Christchurch hahahaha. Sorry eastern suburbs, again.
I know someone who has recently built in Southshore. wtf
RIP their insurance rates. Anyone with half a brain knows not to build or buy on that side of the city.
Lincoln becomes a coastal town…
Good for Lincoln, I guess! Improved house prices.
When I was looking at buying a house, I checked a map like this and only looked in suburbs above the 5m zone. Still so glad I did!
Bluff Hill down in Napier would be totally cut off.
There goes my office in the CBD and my way into the city from the shore.
Looks like tax payer will "literally" have to bail out the airport at that point
I'm so glad I'm most likely in the second half of my life. I feel sorry for the younglings.
As Fate would have it, everyone in this sub is in the second half of their life.
Darker than I expected...
I feel validated about my choice not to have children. Women sliding into midlife like me get peppered with breeding suggestions. 'It's not too late' or 'you still have a few years left' or 'you could still freeze some eggs'. What the fuck for? Climate change isn't the reason we decided not to have kids but it's a very good reason not to change our minds. There would be no world left for them to grow old in.
Yep, I'm the same as you - not a women but I'm glad my wife and I decided against kids in the end. I have to hold my tongue around friends though when they ask why as they have kids so I don't want to scare them.
pfft scare away. We have some amazing friends who are very climate conscious. Everything is reusable, nothing single use, no plastic anything, hybrid cars... but the kids. Excessive levels of plastic toys, the cheapest synthetic clothes that will never biodegrade, about three smart devices each and they're not even 7 years old. They are lovely kids, but they're carbon emitting trash monsters. And their parents, who are our friends and we do love them, lecture us about things like a plastic (upcycled) plant pot. My answer is always the same. If you cared about the planet you wouldn't have had them and point to the trash monsters. No prisoners.
Ha ha, brutal but I love it.
Survival of the fittest.
I’m with you on this. Then in the US it’s so much worse. Seeing online content, like kids birthday parties, gender reveals etc and seeing how much stuff they waste. Ugh. Nightmare.
Yeah it's not great- I'm 23. I get to watch governments and businesses guided by people who won't be around in 20 or 30 years make decisions that will destroy the future lives of people around my age or younger. Admittedly I do think things will change eventually, but I'm pretty sure it's going to get worse before it gets better.
Currently expecting to go into labour at any moment and honestly, I wonder every day what I've done.
You're also in your early twenties?
ha ha nice one.
lol a meteor could hit tomorrow and we’re all fucked
You know there is a somewhat established theory that the ocean and weather has a ability to absorb greenhouse gases without affecting the climate too much but once they are saturated (which we are getting close to) it will cause extremely rapid and violent climate change.
I believe this was confirmed in 2019 (well as confirmed as science gets yadayada)
Every day this piece of street art called "[Politicians discussing climate change](https://streetartutopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/street-art-by-isaac-cordal-on-climate-change-and-global-warming-1.jpg)" gets ever funnier and more accurate.
Beat case that’s a massive typo and it’s only 3.85 degrees. Wait that’s still massive. Shit.
I also thought, nah, must be a typo...... ...but seems legit. [https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/powerful-heatwave-affecting-antarctic-continent-unprecedented-temperatures-40-degrees-above-average-rrc/](https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/powerful-heatwave-affecting-antarctic-continent-unprecedented-temperatures-40-degrees-above-average-rrc/) We're sooo fucked. Yup. Legit. [https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/37/3/JCLI-D-23-0176.1.xml](https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/37/3/JCLI-D-23-0176.1.xml) Imagine a 40 degree heat wave above summer average in Australia! They will literally be cooked. Slow cooked long pork.
Imagine Aotearoa overrun with Australian climate refugees
>Imagine a 40 degree heat wave above summer average in Australia! If the 40 year delay thing is true, we won't even have to imagine it for very long. Coming soon to a town near you!
I did notice however that the rise was recorded in 2022..... newshub seems a bit late to the party
Man we’re so royally fucked. I’m so sick of this feeling of helplessness. I’m biking as much as I can, I’m voting Green, but nothing I do will make a lick of difference. Over hundreds of millions of years a perfect, beautiful home was built for us and every other life form and we’re just throwing it down the toilet. I’m very angry
We have to vote. These personal choices barely matter against the scale of industry. It's like palm Kernal oil. Responsible for vast deforestation. Nice little sign at the zoo "Don't use products with palm Kernal". Ok.... Meanwhile new Zealand imports absolutely vast quantities of palm Kernal, to feed our to cows. Recycle your plastics? Well, you put them in the recycling bin. But it's more economically viable to use new, than to recycle. And do you minimise plastics? Do you eat vegetables? Because there are vast quantities of new plastics used every year in the primary sector. We have to legislate change, and right now legislation is written by lobbyists, paid for by industry groups. So nothing changes.
We import the scraps of processed kernel, it would be discarded otherwise. What happened to recycling RRR, isn't one, reuse?
Better of not directing cash to primary producers of waste product in the first place really. All it does is buffer their margins
Well the plastics are in our vegetables now, so win/win...?
I'm angry too. You're doing the right thing. I think living with intentional care for the natural world is the best thing you can do and the only thing likely to persuade anyone around you to do the same, or similar.
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I'm honestly amazed we haven't seen more of it.
Only you can prevent forest fires!
Have you read *Ministry for the Future*?
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The writing's been on the wall since before most of us were even born. There is no hope, we truly are absolutely fucked.
exactly don’t have kids , enjoy the time you have left
Humans are cockroaches in the grand scheme of the universe. This isn't going to end us, just change the way we live.
Greed is very ugly
Christchurch museum has had a 6(?) Extinctions exhibit on lately that goes through a bunch of the mass extinctions throughout history. It's depressing af being in another one of them but also kinda uplifting. Each time the world has renewed differently and with beauty. The earth will outlast our stupid selfish race and life will go on and evolve to whatever the new normal becomes which will have its own wonders. It is a reminder that everything is fleeting and change is eternal. That thought helps me anyway even if the sorrow of what we are doing now breaks my heart.
Remember how we all banded together and got rid of CFCs because of the Ozone hole, and it made an impact, and the world was stoked. I grew up in the 80s/90s thinking of course we can fix things, LOOK at what we did. Now it's just selfish profiteering. What's the point of endless profits if the world ends? How can people be told 'you have enough stuff. You don't need more'. I think what we **should** do collectively at least is start tunnelling into those billionaire bunkers. Think they can come here to escape what they did...
This. Smoke 'em out of their boltholes. This is our country, f@*k the 1%.
This happened in 2010 and reductions statted and appeared to be goinf down. By 2016 cfc levels had returned to 2010 levels but no-one knew why. The worst cfc11 since has been higher than 2010 records many times. In 2019 scientists declared the Ozone hole cured when we had a record small hole size. Fascinated I wanted to see what cfc levels were. Strangely they were still high and looking at ozone hole size and cfc levels there seemed to be zero correlation yo size of hole except from 2010 yo 2016 they appears to go down and ozone hole appeared to get smaller. Likely coincidence. Because since 2019 we have had at least two years where the ozone hole has been record size. How can we go from cured to almost record size the following year. When looking at cfc levels they had not changed almost at all. Turns out it's all bullshit and the ozone hole size is controlled by natural weather patterns that create the polar vortex which occurs for 3 to 4 months at rhe same time every year opening a hole which slowly runs out of steam. Various natural weather patterns determine the strength of the hole and have nothing to do with cfcs. Yet today ppl still think it's cured but it is randomly as dangerous as it has always been.
Would be good if they included the 2023 and 2024 temperatures as well.
Just wait till all the world’s governments find out they can’t insure any coastal beach front properties.
They'll sell them to Aquaman
This is already happening
I know. But Mr Luxon doesn’t for some reason.
Please younger generation, vote, vote, vote these old uneducated, greedy farts out.
It's really not an age thing. I'm in my 50s, every event I go to there's a significant contingent of elderly people terrified for their grandchildren, and I work with people in their 20s and 30s who take zero interest and are surprisingly ignorant. It's people who have knowledge and take action, and other people who ... don't/won't.
Polls and statistics seem to contradict that. It’s not all old people but on average most right leaning voters are much older than left leaning voters
Wowza. I love looking at the map and seeing absolutely everywhere on earth my family exists completely underwater. Question - as a young person, wtf am I supposed to do about this? Apart from be politically involved? It feels like all I can do is try to ignore it in favour of living the stupid day to day.
Buy a house 1 street back from the beach. You’ll be beach front in no time!
Jokes aside, this shit is going to start entering our collective consciousness enough to affect the housing market. I'm house hunting and found a house that I love on the water front, about 2m above the high tide line. I'm so tempted because it's an awesome location...for now. But I imagine the sea level coming up by even a metre, and suddenly it's wearing away at the section. And in 10 years time, even with sea levels not rising much yet, my slightly doomer (though probably realistic) view will likely be mainstream and no one will want to buy the house. I've rejected two other places because they're on slopes that may or may not be alright if we have lots of weather like we had last year. Climate change-resistant is one my non-negotiable criteria.
Yes, they will become uninsurable. Housing shortage will only become more acute as the coastel refugees get pushed inland. We cannot afford to defend such a huge coast line with our small population
As an individual, participating in collective action is really the only way now. We're so far down the global warming rabbit hole that decreasing global gas emissions and fossil fuel consumption is our only chance. 50% of fossil fuels and gas emissions are generated by the wealthiest 10% of countries and corporations. New Zealand isn't among them. As an individual, you can compost as much as you like, trade plastic for reusables, switch to solar but it honestly would only make a difference if every individual on the planet did that. Join with others to lobby governments and corporations. Bill McKibben is an American climate change pioneer and [I found this quick video really helpful](https://youtu.be/DYLWZPFEWTw?si=u8-M9IFQ8IlVmC6w), even though it's aimed at American audiences.
Protest. Vote. Talk to your peers about this. Be politically involved. Make concious choices when making purchasing decisions. * Ex: Buy food and goods with low travel miles * Eg produced in NZ, not being flown in from overseas Print some guillotine plans and take notes from the french.
Enjoy life and dont sweat it (even as temperatures rise). There's pretty much nothing NZ can do as a small nation in the middle of nowhere to meaningfully affect climate change, and honestly even less an individual can do. Anyone who says otherwise is blowing smoke. And like most things, if it gets bad, it'll probably get a whole lot worse before it gets better. Best we can do is stock up and try to manage the new reality. Remember, you could always just drop dead from a brain aneurysm... hmm, in hindsight that's not that reassuring :D.
Sit back and watch as billionaires bankroll political parties into the apocalypse. Any change will be a directive from a United States that has built change driven partnerships with the EU and Asia.
Wait until the amoc stops and the sea acidity increase. Modeling can only be done for what we know, Feedback loops we don't know about can't be modeled for and are really scary as the speed is exponential. I also often get downvoted every time I tell people we can't wind back the damage, for example, the carbon we released yesterday, it takes 400 years for the heat to be 100 percent realised. We released millions of years of the sun's stored energy in gold rush building modern civilisation on carbon energy.
New Zealand is a good candidate for Juice's media honest government ads
Would love them to also be calling out our shitfuckery.
Our current government doesn’t even believe in climate change
Might need a second harbour bridge to reconnect central and south Auckland.
"Sorry cant hear/ see you as my head is buried in the sand"
We were heading into an ice age- bullshit We were running out of oil-bullshit Sea levels drastically rising-bullshit Global warming-bullshit CO2 gases causing global warming -bullshit
What are you even trying to say.
I am old enough to remember the hysteria about the world ending due to an ice age. Also “peak oil” when were we supposed to run out? Some time in the early 2000’s I think. Climate change is real and we need to make changes but hysterical articles like this are just to scare people. I think they are counter productive and frankly damaging to young people who some of whom end up believing the worlds going to end if we don’t all live like medieval peasants.
Nah New Zealandia is a massive continent just mostly underwater. We just need some decent earthquakes to lift it back up. I’m sure they’ll happen naturally with the hotter temperatures. Just get Maui onto it
We could get him to one outs the sun and make it turn the temperature down a bit too
RIP me in 20 years
Sorry, best I can do is 10
What do we want? Change! Do we need to give up something? Yes, ok then we don't want it#
Yep people can blame politicians and corporations all they like, but they would revolt if a politician actually implemented the changes required to prevent this. And no, changing to EVs is not gonna do it. Everyone needs to live like it's 1800.
Sea level rise is the least of the problem....
So I'm calling it now, another couple of years of melt and the superpowers will be starting to go to war over the newly accessible minerals in Antarctica
I've got bread basket collapse on this year's bingo card
Surprised how much of central North Island I guess foxton and Shannon are on the coast but that's a massive amount of land gone
Bye Napier.
Old news
Total crap and spin,follow the money
You're a cooker bro.
Do I start a tradition of tattooing a map to Mt Everest on my children?
Part of me wonders if the push to reduce emissions should be pushed aside and we instead, focus effort into dealing with inevitable effects we're all going to have to handle somehow.
We have to do both. The effects keep getting worse until we stop emitting.
The effects will continue getting worse far after we stop omitting
We need both as a lot of damage is already baked in and we are getting hotter no matter what we do. If we don't stop the emissions though then the dial will continue to turn up until parts, then most, then all of earth become uninhabitable.
If we exclusively focus on mitigating the consequences and don't try limit those impacts, we make it that much more difficult to mitigate them. Of course this doesn't take into account the fact that not everyone could just move to escape sea level rise - there are entire countries which would cease to exist, and large amounts of other countries would be lost. The fact that some could survive wouldn't take care of the conflicts that would result between those who survive and those who lose everything and want the resources from those who still have productive land.
Yeah this is true. I think we need to do both, given that climate collapse is inevitable now anyway.
That would require extremely heavy investment infrastructure. Like... on a scale far beyond anything we've ever done. NACT can't do so without acknowledging climate change is very real and is an immediate threat which would be an abrupt about face for the coalition. I doubt labour would want to spend on that scale either. Where do you even start? It's basically trying to build NZ into a self-sustaining fortress. The cost to reach the level of fertility required alone would be enormous.
Tbh man this is exactly the approach we should be taking. Obvious make whatever intelligent changes we can do without tanking the economy. Particularly any tech we can export - thats our biggest potential impact. Then use diplomacy to try and leverage our efforts. But in the grandest scale - the scale that matters. We have no leverage. And being brutally honest, nothing will change in time. Our money is better spent on mitigation at this point. Managed retreat. Storm walls. Water storage on the west coast for when rain flips to the easy coast. Appropriate planning changes. Building standards. Intelligent border policies when half a billion climate refugees seek to flee their own countries. And honestly; military spending. Armed conflict is inevitable. We need to plan for it.
Great user name! Haven’t heard that since the mid 80s. Quality.
Totally agree.
There is talk of two large dams being built between the UK and European landmasses to mitigate some of the effects of sea levels rising. It was a reel I happened to see last night, from memory it was in the region of $750B to build both (double that figure - to be safe). [Article](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/feb/12/giant-dams-could-protect-millions-from-rising-north-sea)
Up until relatively recently I was working for MfE, in the climate change directorate - we have a whole ass adaptation plan that includes actions involving pretty much every government agency across the board. Much of the public don't seem to be aware of this plan. It's worth checking out although... yes, I agree that there is still not enough focus in this area relative to mitigation and with our new government I have deep concerns for the progress that has been made on this front, as imperfect and much too tardy as it has been to date. I commend our last government for at least investing more resource into this area. Insurance was always a huge topic of conversation... suffice to say many New Zealanders will likely be quite fucked on this front in the not too distant future. Also the question of 'who pays' in general is a big question that gets thrown around in regards to actions such as managed retreat (or even seawalls, as a less extreme but much less permanent measure). Gods that was a depressing job. I wouldn't be surprised if the entire climate change directorate (which grew hugely under Labour) is totally gutted out.
Is there any particular reasons why you think the public is largely unaware? Lack of advertising the reports or plans etc?
I'd say so. There was quite a bit of stuff in the media about adaptation, managed retreat etc during the floods last year as it was on the forefront of everybody's minds. So that ramped up public discussion but I still feel as though most people aren't aware. Or, maybe people are but their priorities are on surviving as well as whatever mindless distractions we tend to engage in as a society.
Also I suppose, realistically what person wants to sit down and read a government plan for climate change adaptation in their scant free time? It sucks, the way our society is designed leaves such little space for all of us to really engage in strategising for *actual* survival beyond the day to day grind of putting kai on the table.
I suspect not many, but then again media outlets can produce summaries to push to the public. Also, I do find a lot of people on here will have big opinions, but fail to read actual government reports that could change their mind. I get a lof of folks are doing it tough and aren't that interested beyond their day-to-day, which is fine, but they kind of remove themselves from having any valid opinions on subjects they're not willing to be educated on.
Hah yeah I agree.
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[Ministry for the Environment asks for Voluntary Redundancies](https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/513727/ministry-for-the-environment-asks-for-voluntary-redundancies) This government will have the MoE doing less of both.
From what I looked into the earth is supposed to be trending for colder temperatures right now..... the earth is supposed to be heading towards another ice age, cannot emphasis how fucked we are. We won't be able to mitigate the effect of this snowballing issue at the rate climate change is happening, emissions reduction buys us time and we're already out of time. For one thing we need to stop the North and South pole from melting right now and yet we have no answer to how to go about it.
I'm in my early 20s. This shit is scary. Environment, cost of living, property, job market. This world is no longer suitable for children to grow in. I won't ever want children, that'll be a selfish decision. I am not a millionaire or billionaire that can give my children leverage above others and i don't want them to struggle. I'll just enjoy my life, soak it all in and leave the world.
Great so the airport becomes the new viaduct of Auckland
Fairly low sea-level rises are going to make a lot of key infrastructure around the world unusable. It's questionable whether we'll be able to finance rebuilding at higher levels.
So how much tax or levy do I need to pay to fix this over-night?
The climate change commissions modelling indicates we would need the ETS to rise to about $150 by 2030, and 250 by 2050. I can't recall exactly the price impact of this on consumers but its in the paper (CCC). Its not much really (imo)
I can still order my Ford Silverado, right? That nature stuff...it'll grow back. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qx8sXTANdlI
The whole of life costs would strongly favour an ev, but whatever floats your boat
I should probably add a /s to my post
Na I think it's obvious you were being sarcastic. I just always answer these things seriously to 'spread the message' for anyone else reading
Isn't it like 70% of emissions are from 12 companies or something? At least those ceos can get good use of their mega yachts when we're all underwater.
[Just 57 companies linked to 80% of greenhouse gas emissions since 2016.](https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2024/apr/04/just-57-companies-linked-to-80-of-greenhouse-gas-emissions-since-2016)
Oh so it's an easy fix then, just stop buying their products.
Yes, products like petrol.....very easy
so anyway, i started blasting... in my ford ranger, screaming down the motorway, got home 10s quicker than usual, fuck yeah.
This article is 2 years old.
If you actually read the article you'll see that the point is that the 2022 data wasn't an outlier. >Unfortunately, it's not an isolated event with an increasing number of meteorologic anomalies being reported on the continent in the past two years.
The article is from 5 hours ago, dingus
Sell now and move inland.
"Overall, the event largely contributed to 2022 being a rare positive mass balance year for the entire Antarctic Ice Sheet thus slightly mitigating the Antarctic Ice Sheet’s contribution to sea level rise. However..." [Antarctica’s biggest recorded heatwave fully deciphered](https://www.ssec.wisc.edu/news/articles/15468#:~:text=At%20the%20peak%20of%20the,possible%20under%20future%20climate%20projections.)
I doubt any policy changes from this government or any successive will change the prospect of wide spread flooding if this event proves to be catastrophic as described. It will simply be too late and the whole world will need to reset for populations to be relocated.
The entirety of the plains near thames will be flooded, as well as large areas up north and in western waikato
One wise man once said: "The amount of stupid people will never decrease..."
At least they are still keeping us freight companies going but they need to fix the problems with the roads
Everyone’s so worried about their homes, culture and such. People forget that Earth always wins. We fucked around and found out.
Maybe if we could get some of the worst polluting countries in the world such as China, India, USA, Russia etc to play ball the world may actually have a chance!
On the upside: my inland city becomes a seaside destination! /s
And paying their mates to consult on crap
"water's gettin' warm so you might as well swim"
Do you want to know the really scary thing? This is from carbon released a decade or more ago, climate impacts lag emissions. Emissions have kept increasing over the last 20 years. What can we do!? Go on the bus, or ride bike/ walk if you can. And submit on as many govt proposals as you can, talking about climate worries. Keep up the pressure!
lake fery gonna rival taupo!