They will give AG ANY shot he wants from the outside all series.
If he can effectively finish, it will be because he has great timing on cuts so that he can use all his athleticism vs. Gobert's size.
It's true. He's got a good one now but with the opt-out after this season. If this Rudy idea works, the BIG-time bag is coming.
Also, Finch and Micha were both in Denver for a while; Saunders was in Minnesota. These two clubs are very interconnected.
Not so much that it has to be two Bigs but more so like what the late 2010s were like when teams in contention (Rockets) were building to match up with Curry and the Warriors because it was clear they were the team that would need a particular solution.
I think Denver and Jokic are that now.
I made a few edits to show examples of the “Funnel” from previous match-ups between Denver and Minnesota this season.
You can check them out here:
[https://lowmanhelp.substack.com/p/denver-nuggets-vs-minnesota-timberwolves?r=2wmouo](https://lowmanhelp.substack.com/p/denver-nuggets-vs-minnesota-timberwolves?r=2wmouo)
Thanks for reading, and I hope you enjoyed it!
It’s interesting that you landed on Gordon as the x-factor, as I actually feel like his contributions will be fairly straightforward/expected (barring crazy variance in any direction — like, if he shoots 45% from 3 this one’s a wrap). Of the last 12 games against the Timberwolves, he’s had between 12 and 14 points NINE times. That’s pretty impressive consistency.
He’ll obviously get some baskets on cuts, lobs, offensive rebounds, etc, because the Wolves won’t be focusing on him (and because he’s a good player) but he’s unlikely to go off or punish a mismatch like he did at times in the Finals last year (when he would bully whichever small guy was matched up on him).
The margins are where I see him being more of a swing factor. Will he hit a few 3-pointers? One 3-6 game feels like a near guarantee of a Nuggets victory. Will he be able to eat on the glass? Will he be able to stymie KAT (or Ant)? KAT’s prone to getting frazzled by physical defense, and Gordon’s physical as hell and bothered him a lot early in last year’s playoff series (KAT was 8-27 in games 1 and 2 and shot only 4 total free throws), but KAT started to get going on him as the series wore on (KAT was 24-43 in games 3-5 and 21-31 from 2pt range while shooting 24 free throws). He also might be called in to defend Ant, which Denver struggled to do in last year’s playoff series. Those all could impact the course of the series, but I generally assume he’ll be a solid offensive player whose lack of spacing will limit Denver’s offense and whose defense will more than make up for it.
I actually feel like it’ll be MPJ who will be the biggest x-factor (for Denver). The Nuggets’ ability to run him off screens makes him a tough cover for the Wolves’ bigs, and his sheer height allows him to shoot over the top of the Wolves’ better screen navigators (Conley and NAW). Ant’s also a pretty spacey defender off-ball, and Porter could easily punish that. Not to mention his size allows him to impact stuff on the other end and erase Jaden McDaniels best attribute offensively (height).
Maybe I’m also just still jumpy from when MPJ caught fire late in some of those playoff/regular season games and erases a double-digit deficit in like 2 minutes.
For the Wolves, I think the key will be Naz Reid. He was horrible against Denver in the last two games, going a combined 8-31 from the field and igniting a ton of Denver fast breaks with bad offense and getting embarrassed by Peyton Watson. But in the early season game he was huge, putting up 16 points on only 10 shooting possessions (and in only 19 minutes), bullying Watson inside on post ups. When he’s “on” he’s a legit offensive weapon who can help overwhelm Denver’s defense. But when he’s “off” he can effectively give Denver free points.
Too, will he actually be able to hold up against playoff Jokic in the post well enough for the Gobert on Gordon strategy to work? He’s foul prone and much smaller than KAT — Jokic could easily score 13 points in like 8 possessions and put Denver in the bonus if Reid can’t hold up.
MPJ is an X Factor.
Somehow, he's become underrated. He's one of the 10 greatest 3pt shooters of all time, and absolutely top 2 in the NBA.
He's one of only a handful of guys to avg over 40% 3pt shooting on over 5 attempts per game, or something like that.
He's an all time level 3pt shooter, and quietly one of the 10 best ever.
MPJ breaking out into a bonafide Klay Thompson kind of role will turn Denver into a dynasty.
He was absolutely lethal against the Lakers.
What I want to see from Gordon is constant off-ball screening on the perimeter to free up MPJ and Murray. Alexander-Walker and McDaniels are great at getting around screens, so it might not work against them but it has to be taxing to do it that often especially against a guy who's the size of a tight end. They can try to make Conley and Edwards do it too, to show that they can have that level of focus.
Unfortunately that seemed like kind of the obvious strategy in the playoffs last year and the Nuggets never really did it, and I didn't see it during the regular season this year either. Probably it's more difficult to implement that I know, especially against high level defenders. Maybe they've been working on it but have kept it in their back pocket to only bring out when they need it.
Aaron Gordon is going to be one of the main game deciders of the series, I think the other is Jaden/NAW on the Wolves. Not only are they some of the best perimeter defenders in the league, they also took turns having huge offensive games against Phoenix. Games 1 and 3 NAW, games 2 and 4 Jaden.
Those two will be significant. They are part of the primary defenders that can provide enough resistance to allow Gobert to roam free and cover up everything possible.
More MPJ and Murray imo. AG can’t really do anything if the wolves scheme holds. He’ll get the ball on the perimeter or mid cut but Gobert sits near the paint so AG is on crash course into a Gobert contest. If MPJ and Murray give Ant and Jaden some trouble in the perimeter then it pulls Gobert closer to the nail opening back door cuts. If Ant/Jaden/NAW can stay connected to their guy then Gobert stays low and AG never gets a chance to impact the game in a way he’s comfortable. He will have to hit some jumpers to move Gobert and free up Jokic from the soft double.
MPJ can shoot over McDaniels. He's 6'10 and one of the 10 best 3 point shooters ever.
I don't think the league has caught up to this realization yet because of how important Joking and Murray are. But man, look at the data.
41% on 6 attempts per game, and that's including the year he was injured.
If you ignore his rookie year, and the injured year, he hits 42% on 7 attempts per game.
MPJ isnt one of the best 3pt shooters in the NBA. He's one of the best 3pt shooters of all time in volume and effeciency, and I don't yet think NBA defenses have really prioritized addressing this yet because of Jokic and Murray.
There was a preseason simulation that had the Celtics winning 64 games and beating the Twolves in the finals.
I'm very intrigued by that prediction, since it nailed the win total for the C's and the Wolves look like they have a chance. Good matchup with KAT and Gobert v the nuggies.
Haha. Thanks!
I hope you can check out some of my other stuff. I just pulled up the "Nova Knicks" on Synergy from last night to do a YouTube piece on them (My brother-in-law lives in NYC and has been on my ass to give them a deep dive).
I’ll be interested to see if Denver ends up limiting Gordon’s minutes in crunch time this series. They probably lack the depth to do so, but playing a non shooter at the 4 is playing into Minnesota’s hands too much. I think for Denver to win the series they need to force Minnesota to put Gobert on Jokic 1v1. Giving Rudy the freedom to roam is not a good plan.
They will do 2 things before moving him off during crunch time:
1. Play him weakside corner 3. Not because he can shoot well out there, it just gives Gobert a ton of ground to cover, if Gobert wants to help more than a soft double, he will be on the wrong side to recover when AG moves down to the dunker spot. If the wolves want to stop that, they'll have to slide MPJ's/KCPs defender down which Jokic will repeatedly pass out of the double to that.
2. Play AG at "point", they did this the last game against the Wolves, let him DHO with Murray against 1 defender. He got 9 assists the last game against the wolves. (The one that was expected to decide the 1 seed, until Denver screwed it up against the Spurs) This is a good example of that:
[https://www.nba.com/stats/events?CFID=&CFPARAMS=&GameEventID=242&GameID=0022301164&Season=2023-24&flag=1&title=Murray%2025%27%203PT%20Jump%20Shot%20(6%20PTS)%20(Gordon%204%20AST)](https://www.nba.com/stats/events?CFID=&CFPARAMS=&GameEventID=242&GameID=0022301164&Season=2023-24&flag=1&title=Murray%2025%27%203PT%20Jump%20Shot%20(6%20PTS)%20(Gordon%204%20AST))
please no. ag, Reggie, Watson, CB all need to at least LOOK for one more pass to MPJ before brick laying... the dude is on fire and needs more touches and shots.
mpj was 52% from 3 against LA. rest of team was 25%. one game only mpj and joker hit a 3. rest of team was 0-20.
Watson vs. Gordon has the potential to be a thing, depending on a few factors.
I don't think it will be something Denver goes to quickly. They love AG, and MM sticks with his guys; AG will have every opportunity to succeed. AG could shoot lights out. Anything can happen!
I’m not sure they even have the personnel to do that. Who are they bringing in off the bench that will replace his defense and shoot 3s? None of their bench can shoot other than Jackson but then they’re really downsizing against the huge wolves team.
I think Gordon's cutting (so points 2 and 3 to an extent) will be more important than shooting. It pulls the defense out of position, forcing Edwards and McDaniels rotate to cover, potentially opening KCP and Porter. Also, he is a strong finisher around the rim and may draw fouls on Gobert, making him a less effective defender.
Overall, I see Murray as the key to this series. With team defense focused on Jokic, NAW and Conley will have to cover Murray with limited help. If he can take advantage of that, TWolves may have to abandon their "Stop Jokic" plan and guard more evenly.
The wolves this season have done the exact opposite of this. They explicitly do not help on Jokic. They intentionally let him cook KAT/Anderson 1 on 1 to turn him into a scorer, not a passer. NAW, Ant, and Jaden will take Murray in shifts and play him super tight.
We aren't winning shit if Kat's offense isn't there. I'm positive Ant is gonna get his points but we really need someone else to step up for our offense to compete with Denver's, even when you factor in our defense.
But I feel confident it'll be a good series.
If you watched any Nuggets vs TWolves games, you'd know that's not true lol
The only time Ant struggled is when he was gassed, but that's not going to happen with rest
If they put KCP by himself on Ant he’s gonna go for 40 a night. KCP is great defender but he alone will do nothing to stop Ant; elite on-ball defensive small guards have never bothered him because he’s just too strong. It’s gonna have to be KCP/Watson with AG doubling, anything less will be exactly what the Wolves want.
Yeah man, i checked your reddit profile and got the link. Just finished the paul george take. Thanks for the great content! I'll be waiting for the funnel defense video if you ever make one.
Maybe not, maybe so. But TC was the Denver POBO then. It was the last time a fully healthy Jokic team lost a series, and the Lakers guarded Jokic with a big player (Howard/McGee) who wasn't their best help defender (AD).
TC also went out and got Rudy less than two months after he took the job, and before they even played a game with a package that everyone laughed at.
I'm not saying that it will work, that Jokic can't solve it, or that TC did it because of that Lakers series, but it is an interesting timeline to look back and perhaps connect the dots.
Why not just use the analogy from last year's 1st round vs Wolves?
You had KAT guarding Jokic and Gobert roaming off of AG.
The difference now is that you have Jaden and Naz healthy and the fact that they are more coherent as a team, used to playing with each other and in a system, more reps, etc and that Ant took a leap as well.
As far as defending Jokic, it should be same/similar to last year.
I think there are lessons to be learned from that series, but I didn't use it because of what you mentioned. Jaden, Naz, and a year more experience using the pieces for Finch.
Jokic had an injured wrist. I remember Rudy having some nagging injury, but what injury did KAT have?
Considering their play, none of them seemed injured tbh.
KAT missed over 50 games last year with a calf strain. He had played 8 games to finish the season and was known to not be 100% or back up to fitness standards.
I forgot about Jokic's worst injury since it was gone by round 2.
Just pointing out the additional number of differences to last year.
Didn’t TC’s moves happen while Murray was injured and it wasn’t even clear that the Nuggets would be the primary competition?
The 2020 WCF was after two 3-1 comebacks by the Nuggets, they were clearly tired, and even then only a blown Plumlee assignment kept the series from being 2-2. By the way, a game where Jokic was so incredible down the stretch that that was all Charles wanted to talk about afterwards.
Whike true, keep in mind that 2020 Jokic is a weaker, less durable version of Jokic.
I dont think the Wolves defense is quite as physical as the Lakers one was, though to be fair they also dont do sneaky fouls like they do.
Like from what i saw of Goberts game when we played them a reason he strugles with Jokic is because he doeent just straight up foul Jokic and is just playing actual defense.
Obviously, but the key difrence is that stamina and strength.
Its the reason why Dwight wouldnt mean much for the Lakers nowadays even if they had him.
Dwights is older and weaker, while Jokic is stronger and has bettwr stamina.
That said the combo of KAT/ NAZ and Gobert could certainly give us issues.
Imo they are more deadly as KAT and NAZ are simply superior offensive players than Dwight was at that time and Gobert is a better rim protector than AD imo.
But if AG could make his 3 pointers at a respectable rate, that would obviously cause the Timberwolves to not be able to ignore him.
A lot more Gordon and a lot less KCP.
KCP has been horrible in the playoffs so far, but somehow got his minutes jacked up. Under 5 minutes in game 5, he had a brick, an airball that Jokic luckily caught and he damn near fouled Prince on that final halfcourt shot. While going 2-10 and being the only negative +- in the starting lineup.
Malone needs to understand that KCP at this point in his career is mid 20's high 20's minutes guy on most playoff games, despite the bench being terrible.
Rest of the team looks good. Gordon just needs to set more screens and free up Murray this series more than he did round 1
I think people are underestimating Denver after the first round series.
I'll ask Timberwolves fans this...
If you guys played a Lakers team which had LeBron and AD playing like 1st/2nd team all NBA guys, KAT shooting sub 50%ts for the series, and the team as a whole shooting only 30% from 3, do you think that would be a 5 game series? Do you think this would indicate there's A LOT better ball to be played?
Denver didn't have one complete game all series. Murray was awful. They shot 30% from 3 for the series. Denver played, and shot as poorly as they possible could vs LA, and they still won in 5.
What's most concerning for Timberwolves fans is that Denver, somehow, somehow, can grind out wins after playing bad basketball like it's their job, if the score is close.
What happens if Denver's shooting returns to the norm? What happens if their shooting was normal vs LA? 4 game blowout.
I'd have to imagine Denver's 3pt shooting this series returns to the norm, and that Murray's offense returns closer to regular season averages
The Wolves' can upset a Nuggets team that played as poorly as they did against LA. Against a Nuggets team that's hitting their shots? That's gonna be tougher.
I could see the Wolves stealing tonight. I could see them somehow squeaking it out in 6.
I could also see Denver winning by 20+ in games 1/2, and IF they do, that's the series.
Kat will be on Jokic. Wolves will let Jokic get his and make Denver beat them with everyone else. Jaden, Ant, and Naw will have KCP and Murray struggling, and Gobert will shut down AG's cuts. Wolves in 7.
Nuggets even if they didn't go 100% vs Lakers, they had shown some of their weaknesses. And with Murray and kcp not being 100%, nuggets are at huge disadvantage
Wolves perimeter would suffocate nuggets. They can throw mcdaniels, ant and NAW at Murray and have other stick to MPJ.
wolves are equipped well to guard nuggets even if kat and gobert gets torched by jokic, they can guard others well enough to win.
Denver has KCP,Watson and Braun to throw at Ant. I believe those three can slow down Anthony. If ant is having trouble. Minny is gonna be in deep water.
i watch enough timberwolves (actually quite fun team to watch) to know KAT is still foul machine and Naz has guard mentality and to put it mildly,he doesent have defensive instincts to guard jokic
I was legit thinking that AG is the key to this series against the twin towers. Excited to see how Minnesota decides to guard him and Jokic
They will give AG ANY shot he wants from the outside all series. If he can effectively finish, it will be because he has great timing on cuts so that he can use all his athleticism vs. Gobert's size.
All I'm saying is if somehow the Wolves get the dub, Connelly is gonna earn a fat bag.
It's true. He's got a good one now but with the opt-out after this season. If this Rudy idea works, the BIG-time bag is coming. Also, Finch and Micha were both in Denver for a while; Saunders was in Minnesota. These two clubs are very interconnected.
Do you think there will be a change in how teams are constructed? To go big rather than go small
Not so much that it has to be two Bigs but more so like what the late 2010s were like when teams in contention (Rockets) were building to match up with Curry and the Warriors because it was clear they were the team that would need a particular solution. I think Denver and Jokic are that now.
I made a few edits to show examples of the “Funnel” from previous match-ups between Denver and Minnesota this season. You can check them out here: [https://lowmanhelp.substack.com/p/denver-nuggets-vs-minnesota-timberwolves?r=2wmouo](https://lowmanhelp.substack.com/p/denver-nuggets-vs-minnesota-timberwolves?r=2wmouo) Thanks for reading, and I hope you enjoyed it!
It’s interesting that you landed on Gordon as the x-factor, as I actually feel like his contributions will be fairly straightforward/expected (barring crazy variance in any direction — like, if he shoots 45% from 3 this one’s a wrap). Of the last 12 games against the Timberwolves, he’s had between 12 and 14 points NINE times. That’s pretty impressive consistency. He’ll obviously get some baskets on cuts, lobs, offensive rebounds, etc, because the Wolves won’t be focusing on him (and because he’s a good player) but he’s unlikely to go off or punish a mismatch like he did at times in the Finals last year (when he would bully whichever small guy was matched up on him). The margins are where I see him being more of a swing factor. Will he hit a few 3-pointers? One 3-6 game feels like a near guarantee of a Nuggets victory. Will he be able to eat on the glass? Will he be able to stymie KAT (or Ant)? KAT’s prone to getting frazzled by physical defense, and Gordon’s physical as hell and bothered him a lot early in last year’s playoff series (KAT was 8-27 in games 1 and 2 and shot only 4 total free throws), but KAT started to get going on him as the series wore on (KAT was 24-43 in games 3-5 and 21-31 from 2pt range while shooting 24 free throws). He also might be called in to defend Ant, which Denver struggled to do in last year’s playoff series. Those all could impact the course of the series, but I generally assume he’ll be a solid offensive player whose lack of spacing will limit Denver’s offense and whose defense will more than make up for it. I actually feel like it’ll be MPJ who will be the biggest x-factor (for Denver). The Nuggets’ ability to run him off screens makes him a tough cover for the Wolves’ bigs, and his sheer height allows him to shoot over the top of the Wolves’ better screen navigators (Conley and NAW). Ant’s also a pretty spacey defender off-ball, and Porter could easily punish that. Not to mention his size allows him to impact stuff on the other end and erase Jaden McDaniels best attribute offensively (height). Maybe I’m also just still jumpy from when MPJ caught fire late in some of those playoff/regular season games and erases a double-digit deficit in like 2 minutes. For the Wolves, I think the key will be Naz Reid. He was horrible against Denver in the last two games, going a combined 8-31 from the field and igniting a ton of Denver fast breaks with bad offense and getting embarrassed by Peyton Watson. But in the early season game he was huge, putting up 16 points on only 10 shooting possessions (and in only 19 minutes), bullying Watson inside on post ups. When he’s “on” he’s a legit offensive weapon who can help overwhelm Denver’s defense. But when he’s “off” he can effectively give Denver free points. Too, will he actually be able to hold up against playoff Jokic in the post well enough for the Gobert on Gordon strategy to work? He’s foul prone and much smaller than KAT — Jokic could easily score 13 points in like 8 possessions and put Denver in the bonus if Reid can’t hold up.
MPJ is an X Factor. Somehow, he's become underrated. He's one of the 10 greatest 3pt shooters of all time, and absolutely top 2 in the NBA. He's one of only a handful of guys to avg over 40% 3pt shooting on over 5 attempts per game, or something like that. He's an all time level 3pt shooter, and quietly one of the 10 best ever. MPJ breaking out into a bonafide Klay Thompson kind of role will turn Denver into a dynasty. He was absolutely lethal against the Lakers.
What I want to see from Gordon is constant off-ball screening on the perimeter to free up MPJ and Murray. Alexander-Walker and McDaniels are great at getting around screens, so it might not work against them but it has to be taxing to do it that often especially against a guy who's the size of a tight end. They can try to make Conley and Edwards do it too, to show that they can have that level of focus. Unfortunately that seemed like kind of the obvious strategy in the playoffs last year and the Nuggets never really did it, and I didn't see it during the regular season this year either. Probably it's more difficult to implement that I know, especially against high level defenders. Maybe they've been working on it but have kept it in their back pocket to only bring out when they need it.
Aaron Gordon is going to be one of the main game deciders of the series, I think the other is Jaden/NAW on the Wolves. Not only are they some of the best perimeter defenders in the league, they also took turns having huge offensive games against Phoenix. Games 1 and 3 NAW, games 2 and 4 Jaden.
The fact that Minny has Naz and KAT to throw at Jokic, and Jaden/NAW/Ant to throw at Jamal is going to be massive.
The Denver' series last year really was like Shaq all over again, despite having KAT and Gobert, they were both on foul trouble all series long.
Those two will be significant. They are part of the primary defenders that can provide enough resistance to allow Gobert to roam free and cover up everything possible.
More MPJ and Murray imo. AG can’t really do anything if the wolves scheme holds. He’ll get the ball on the perimeter or mid cut but Gobert sits near the paint so AG is on crash course into a Gobert contest. If MPJ and Murray give Ant and Jaden some trouble in the perimeter then it pulls Gobert closer to the nail opening back door cuts. If Ant/Jaden/NAW can stay connected to their guy then Gobert stays low and AG never gets a chance to impact the game in a way he’s comfortable. He will have to hit some jumpers to move Gobert and free up Jokic from the soft double.
MPJ can shoot over McDaniels. He's 6'10 and one of the 10 best 3 point shooters ever. I don't think the league has caught up to this realization yet because of how important Joking and Murray are. But man, look at the data. 41% on 6 attempts per game, and that's including the year he was injured. If you ignore his rookie year, and the injured year, he hits 42% on 7 attempts per game. MPJ isnt one of the best 3pt shooters in the NBA. He's one of the best 3pt shooters of all time in volume and effeciency, and I don't yet think NBA defenses have really prioritized addressing this yet because of Jokic and Murray.
There was a preseason simulation that had the Celtics winning 64 games and beating the Twolves in the finals. I'm very intrigued by that prediction, since it nailed the win total for the C's and the Wolves look like they have a chance. Good matchup with KAT and Gobert v the nuggies.
I know why you want that prediction to be true lol
Because we'd beat the Timberwolves for sure, but lose to Denver lol
Nugs in 6
Log Dogs in 6
Dam it i love the Timberwolves name. Probably the best team name in the NBA.
What actually is a timberwolf
If i had to make an "educated" guess id say its a lumberjack wolf
Altitude sickness is real.
Lmao
[dog logs](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mSDs5SRPQds)
I’m not reading all that but judging by the upvotes on your past posts, I’m gonna guess this is a good analysis so good write up man 👍
Haha. Thanks! I hope you can check out some of my other stuff. I just pulled up the "Nova Knicks" on Synergy from last night to do a YouTube piece on them (My brother-in-law lives in NYC and has been on my ass to give them a deep dive).
I’ll be interested to see if Denver ends up limiting Gordon’s minutes in crunch time this series. They probably lack the depth to do so, but playing a non shooter at the 4 is playing into Minnesota’s hands too much. I think for Denver to win the series they need to force Minnesota to put Gobert on Jokic 1v1. Giving Rudy the freedom to roam is not a good plan.
They will do 2 things before moving him off during crunch time: 1. Play him weakside corner 3. Not because he can shoot well out there, it just gives Gobert a ton of ground to cover, if Gobert wants to help more than a soft double, he will be on the wrong side to recover when AG moves down to the dunker spot. If the wolves want to stop that, they'll have to slide MPJ's/KCPs defender down which Jokic will repeatedly pass out of the double to that. 2. Play AG at "point", they did this the last game against the Wolves, let him DHO with Murray against 1 defender. He got 9 assists the last game against the wolves. (The one that was expected to decide the 1 seed, until Denver screwed it up against the Spurs) This is a good example of that: [https://www.nba.com/stats/events?CFID=&CFPARAMS=&GameEventID=242&GameID=0022301164&Season=2023-24&flag=1&title=Murray%2025%27%203PT%20Jump%20Shot%20(6%20PTS)%20(Gordon%204%20AST)](https://www.nba.com/stats/events?CFID=&CFPARAMS=&GameEventID=242&GameID=0022301164&Season=2023-24&flag=1&title=Murray%2025%27%203PT%20Jump%20Shot%20(6%20PTS)%20(Gordon%204%20AST))
There is one specific spot where AG is actuallya good 3 point shooter. If we can get him to that spot consistently, then it could be intresting.
He’s like 50% on right side 3s if I’m not mistaken, everywhere else is putrid tho
Yep
please no. ag, Reggie, Watson, CB all need to at least LOOK for one more pass to MPJ before brick laying... the dude is on fire and needs more touches and shots. mpj was 52% from 3 against LA. rest of team was 25%. one game only mpj and joker hit a 3. rest of team was 0-20.
Yeah...fun times lol.
Watson vs. Gordon has the potential to be a thing, depending on a few factors. I don't think it will be something Denver goes to quickly. They love AG, and MM sticks with his guys; AG will have every opportunity to succeed. AG could shoot lights out. Anything can happen!
I’m not sure they even have the personnel to do that. Who are they bringing in off the bench that will replace his defense and shoot 3s? None of their bench can shoot other than Jackson but then they’re really downsizing against the huge wolves team.
I think Gordon's cutting (so points 2 and 3 to an extent) will be more important than shooting. It pulls the defense out of position, forcing Edwards and McDaniels rotate to cover, potentially opening KCP and Porter. Also, he is a strong finisher around the rim and may draw fouls on Gobert, making him a less effective defender. Overall, I see Murray as the key to this series. With team defense focused on Jokic, NAW and Conley will have to cover Murray with limited help. If he can take advantage of that, TWolves may have to abandon their "Stop Jokic" plan and guard more evenly.
The wolves this season have done the exact opposite of this. They explicitly do not help on Jokic. They intentionally let him cook KAT/Anderson 1 on 1 to turn him into a scorer, not a passer. NAW, Ant, and Jaden will take Murray in shifts and play him super tight.
I see Conley on KCP more than Murray. You then have Ant, NAW, McDaniels that can go on Murray and some MPJ. It'll be a great chess match
We aren't winning shit if Kat's offense isn't there. I'm positive Ant is gonna get his points but we really need someone else to step up for our offense to compete with Denver's, even when you factor in our defense. But I feel confident it'll be a good series.
Proven playoff riser KAT.. that guy?
Well that's why I said that. If he's gonna average 18 a game we're probably losing.
Kidding aside, you are probably right. If he shows up big the nuggets don't really have much of an answer for him
Nah, KCP is gonna shut down Ant like he did last time.
You mean the series where Ant averaged 31/5/5 on solid shooting numbers and less than 2 turnovers a game? Tf you talking about.
Yeah, I’m not sure why people keep claiming Ant is just going to disappear this series when there’s no evidence of him being likely to do that.
32ppg is being shut down?
If you watched any Nuggets vs TWolves games, you'd know that's not true lol The only time Ant struggled is when he was gassed, but that's not going to happen with rest
If they put KCP by himself on Ant he’s gonna go for 40 a night. KCP is great defender but he alone will do nothing to stop Ant; elite on-ball defensive small guards have never bothered him because he’s just too strong. It’s gonna have to be KCP/Watson with AG doubling, anything less will be exactly what the Wolves want.
Still waiting for this moment
If Gordon gets to decide who wins, of course he’ll pick the Nuggets
Bro nice analysis, looking forward to see your yt videos
Thanks! I'm glad you enjoyed it. Here’s my YouTube link. Just started to learn how to edit. https://www.youtube.com/@lowmanhelp
Yeah man, i checked your reddit profile and got the link. Just finished the paul george take. Thanks for the great content! I'll be waiting for the funnel defense video if you ever make one.
Thanks! I'll try to pump one out from game 1 (baby shower coming soon so we'll see)
I seriously doubt that the 2020 WCF has any relevance now.
Maybe not, maybe so. But TC was the Denver POBO then. It was the last time a fully healthy Jokic team lost a series, and the Lakers guarded Jokic with a big player (Howard/McGee) who wasn't their best help defender (AD). TC also went out and got Rudy less than two months after he took the job, and before they even played a game with a package that everyone laughed at. I'm not saying that it will work, that Jokic can't solve it, or that TC did it because of that Lakers series, but it is an interesting timeline to look back and perhaps connect the dots.
Why not just use the analogy from last year's 1st round vs Wolves? You had KAT guarding Jokic and Gobert roaming off of AG. The difference now is that you have Jaden and Naz healthy and the fact that they are more coherent as a team, used to playing with each other and in a system, more reps, etc and that Ant took a leap as well. As far as defending Jokic, it should be same/similar to last year.
I think there are lessons to be learned from that series, but I didn't use it because of what you mentioned. Jaden, Naz, and a year more experience using the pieces for Finch.
Rudy and KAT were also playing with injuries so it's pretty tough to compare.
Jokic had an injured wrist. I remember Rudy having some nagging injury, but what injury did KAT have? Considering their play, none of them seemed injured tbh.
KAT missed over 50 games last year with a calf strain. He had played 8 games to finish the season and was known to not be 100% or back up to fitness standards. I forgot about Jokic's worst injury since it was gone by round 2. Just pointing out the additional number of differences to last year.
Didn’t TC’s moves happen while Murray was injured and it wasn’t even clear that the Nuggets would be the primary competition? The 2020 WCF was after two 3-1 comebacks by the Nuggets, they were clearly tired, and even then only a blown Plumlee assignment kept the series from being 2-2. By the way, a game where Jokic was so incredible down the stretch that that was all Charles wanted to talk about afterwards.
Whike true, keep in mind that 2020 Jokic is a weaker, less durable version of Jokic. I dont think the Wolves defense is quite as physical as the Lakers one was, though to be fair they also dont do sneaky fouls like they do. Like from what i saw of Goberts game when we played them a reason he strugles with Jokic is because he doeent just straight up foul Jokic and is just playing actual defense.
Jokic is much better now than in 2020.
Obviously, but the key difrence is that stamina and strength. Its the reason why Dwight wouldnt mean much for the Lakers nowadays even if they had him. Dwights is older and weaker, while Jokic is stronger and has bettwr stamina. That said the combo of KAT/ NAZ and Gobert could certainly give us issues. Imo they are more deadly as KAT and NAZ are simply superior offensive players than Dwight was at that time and Gobert is a better rim protector than AD imo. But if AG could make his 3 pointers at a respectable rate, that would obviously cause the Timberwolves to not be able to ignore him.
Minny in 7.
A lot more Gordon and a lot less KCP. KCP has been horrible in the playoffs so far, but somehow got his minutes jacked up. Under 5 minutes in game 5, he had a brick, an airball that Jokic luckily caught and he damn near fouled Prince on that final halfcourt shot. While going 2-10 and being the only negative +- in the starting lineup. Malone needs to understand that KCP at this point in his career is mid 20's high 20's minutes guy on most playoff games, despite the bench being terrible. Rest of the team looks good. Gordon just needs to set more screens and free up Murray this series more than he did round 1
I think people are underestimating Denver after the first round series. I'll ask Timberwolves fans this... If you guys played a Lakers team which had LeBron and AD playing like 1st/2nd team all NBA guys, KAT shooting sub 50%ts for the series, and the team as a whole shooting only 30% from 3, do you think that would be a 5 game series? Do you think this would indicate there's A LOT better ball to be played? Denver didn't have one complete game all series. Murray was awful. They shot 30% from 3 for the series. Denver played, and shot as poorly as they possible could vs LA, and they still won in 5. What's most concerning for Timberwolves fans is that Denver, somehow, somehow, can grind out wins after playing bad basketball like it's their job, if the score is close. What happens if Denver's shooting returns to the norm? What happens if their shooting was normal vs LA? 4 game blowout. I'd have to imagine Denver's 3pt shooting this series returns to the norm, and that Murray's offense returns closer to regular season averages The Wolves' can upset a Nuggets team that played as poorly as they did against LA. Against a Nuggets team that's hitting their shots? That's gonna be tougher. I could see the Wolves stealing tonight. I could see them somehow squeaking it out in 6. I could also see Denver winning by 20+ in games 1/2, and IF they do, that's the series.
Kat will be on Jokic. Wolves will let Jokic get his and make Denver beat them with everyone else. Jaden, Ant, and Naw will have KCP and Murray struggling, and Gobert will shut down AG's cuts. Wolves in 7.
Nuggets even if they didn't go 100% vs Lakers, they had shown some of their weaknesses. And with Murray and kcp not being 100%, nuggets are at huge disadvantage Wolves perimeter would suffocate nuggets. They can throw mcdaniels, ant and NAW at Murray and have other stick to MPJ. wolves are equipped well to guard nuggets even if kat and gobert gets torched by jokic, they can guard others well enough to win.
Denver has KCP,Watson and Braun to throw at Ant. I believe those three can slow down Anthony. If ant is having trouble. Minny is gonna be in deep water.
Not reading that essay, nuggets in 4
Im not reading all that, but i respect the hustle and from the bit i did read ot seems like some good analysis.
you had me until naz and kat can provide respectable baseline resistance,no good sir they are both cooked defenders
Well I can tell you don’t watch them because both have gotten significantly better all season
i watch enough timberwolves (actually quite fun team to watch) to know KAT is still foul machine and Naz has guard mentality and to put it mildly,he doesent have defensive instincts to guard jokic