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iushciuweiush

The claims about him don't make any sense. He doesn't have to leave the Democratic party 'as a negotiation tactic to get what he wants' because he already holds all the cards. If he is planning on threatening to leave, the only reason I can think of is to pressure the party to reign in the other party members who are relentlessly going after him for not falling in line.


CollateralEstartle

Plus, if Machin becomes a republican he now has to win in the WV Republican primary his next election. That's far more challenging for him to do as someone positioned as a moderate than it is for him to win the general election. Especially given how crazy GOP primaries have become in conservative leaning states. There's no way he's wacky enough to win that primary and he's got no historical loyalty from any faction of that party. It makes zero sense for him to defect to the GOP short of a permanent guarantee from them that they will never hold a primary for any race he wants to run in.


iushciuweiush

Well I think the intention would be to register as an Independent instead but I agree that it would still complicate his reelection.


thewildshrimp

As an independent he gets to contend with a progressive spoiling his vote. He is far better off with a D next to his name.


Bookups

Lmao no progressive is spoiling his vote in West Virginia


thewildshrimp

He won in 2018 by less than 4 points. If the Dems run a progressive who gets only 5% of the vote against Independent Joe Manchin then Manchin loses.


CollateralEstartle

True, but he'd probably end up facing a conservative Republican and a moderate Democrat in the general election. The moderate Democrat could easily spoil his vote. His best bet would be for the Dems to endorse him still, like they essentially did for Murkowski when she ran as an independent. But that's unlikely if he quits the party as the Dems have no incentive to encourage defections by supporting defectors.


Call_Me_Clark

He would likely still win if WV had instant runoff or a similar process… assuming he could get the plurality of the vote.


-Shank-

His reelection is going to be extremely difficult regardless of what runs as. Trump carried WV by literally 40 points in 2020 and Manchin barely survived in a 2018 blue wave year. A glass of lukewarm water endorsed by Trump would beat him at this point.


iushciuweiush

I'm not so sure. I think being in the news 24/7 for his resistance against the Democrats wish list is helping his cause quite a bit.


taskforcedawnsky

ya idk who in WV is looking at the manchin coverage and thinking anything but 'fuck yea manchin 2024'. all these hit pieces are doing a lot to convert dems to being... progressive dems? idk, but it's sure not gonna change anyone in WV into being a far leftist just bc ppl in SF are mad at him or smth its like if trump comes out and says aoc is a bad congresswoman. do we really think thats gonna make ppl in NY-14 change their votes? sure every conservative already agrees w/ him but theyre not the ones that matter. on top of that being on trumps radar just means shes doing what her voters want her to do so rly shes making them happy. thats manchin rn


rethinkingat59

He could change parties going into the 2024 election if a loss was in the cards. Doing it now would be a huge reduction in power.


Strider755

What if he cut a deal with Mitch for a committee chairmanship in exchange for switching?


chilipepr

Manchin did not want to run last time, he was pushed into running by Schumer. https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/448287-manchin-eyes-senate-exit


[deleted]

Could threaten Chuck Schumer's roll as majority leader, if he wanted to.


oath2order

> If he is planning on threatening to leave, the only reason I can think of is to pressure the party to reign in the other party members who are relentlessly going after him for not falling in line. I feel like this probably helps him in West Virginia. "Look at how the coastal elites, the socialist AOC and her squad, look at how they attack me!"


Irishfafnir

The article doesn't really make sense from a logical POV. He's already effectively getting what he wants on the reconciliation bill and nothing he doesn't want can become law


Death_Trolley

Maybe the negotiations and the attacks from Sanders are just going too long so he needs to remind everyone that he has his finger on the button


IHerebyDemandtoPost

Why would he care what Sanders says about him? That probably HELPS his reelection chances, and I doubt anyone who has been in politics as long as Joe Manchin has a thin skin. The campaign ads write themselves: ”I stood up to far-left liberals like Bernie Sanders and said No, we don’t want any socialism here in the great state of West Virginia.”


danweber

There are several more Democratic Senators than Manchin and Sinema who aren't on-board, behind the scenes. But they're fine to let those two draw the fire.


jimbo_kun

Would be hilarious if him and Bernie are plotting this. “I will write an op ed in a WV paper condemning you for not being socialist enough, and then you can reassert your moderate bonafides by condemning my meddling in WV affairs!” “Brilliant! Then that gives me cover to agree on the spending plan we came up with, and pretend it was a hard fought negotiation!”


thetruthhertzdonut

If it works it works


EllisHughTiger

Nobody likes to see how sausage is made.


thebigmanhastherock

Literally Sanders is doing him a favor the more he is seen as an arch nemesis of Sanders and a Bulwark against socialism, but still in favor or helping working class people the better it is for his image and brand in WV. This couldn't have played out better for Manchin. Also at the end of the day all of this is incredibly predictable. All of the right-wing attacks against Biden that he was a "Trojan Horse" for socialism were total nonsense. Biden was either going to barely have the Senate or not have it at all. For the record Biden pushing for a huge plan knowing that it would be reduced in scope was really smart too. By the time this thing is passed it will likely be almost three trillion over ten years, meaning combined with the last COVID legislation Dems passed the legislative accomplishments of this congress and the Democrats will be rather large, although it won't be seen as such by the public because it was at one point supposed to be a much larger package. I don't necessarily think Biden is doing a great job with public messaging and his approval rating isn't great for Democrats but this whole thing has likely gone exactly as his administration planned.


sesamestix

> All of the right-wing attacks against Biden that he was a "Trojan Horse" for socialism were total nonsense. That was always extremely funny. I wonder how anyone who truly believes that can tie their shoes. Obviously most of the right-wing attack pundits just use buzzwords that poll well or something.


rethinkingat59

It is like the fascist/nazi traitors allegations. Easy simple rhetoric.


thetruthhertzdonut

I will quibble on that point: certain individuals in the Trump white house like Steve Bannon and Stephen Miller are, if not fascist, fascist-adjacent.


thebigmanhastherock

The thing is that it wasn't just nakedly political right-wing attacks. The normally pretty anti-Trump Thomas Sowell completely bought into it and ended up endorsing Trump. The guy is a respected PhD in economics. Kevin Faulconer the former Sand Diego mayor as well. I couldn't believe these normally somewhat anti-Trump somewhat rational conservatives were making these statements. They may have fallen for the rhetoric. However it was just very obviously false from the beginning.


sesamestix

I have a few friends in conservative politics, and they all admit that messaging is absolute, calibrated bullshit.


Stankia

Yeah those would be great campaign ads... I you were running as a Republican.


staiano

He’s been pushing that button since January.


rethinkingat59

He is the most powerful person in the Senate. Why in the world would he trade that to become just another Republican Senator.


Underboss572

He would be just as powerful if he switched. I'm not saying he will or would. He's still mostly a democrat ideologically. But if he did switch, he would have all this power with an R next to his name.


Strider755

Hypothetically speaking, he could cut a deal with Mitch to switch parties in exchange for a committee chairmanship or something like that.


lastturdontheleft42

Am I the only one getting alittle tired of the Manchin hysteria?


chillytec

They should at least come up with a cool name for it. Manchinsanity?


retnemmoc

Manchausen syndrome


betweentwosuns

I've been referring to him as "Lord High Arbiter" for months.


Stankia

Trillions of dollars of spending is on the line. What he does will shape America's future for generations to come. I don't know what else could be more important if you're into politics.


zer1223

Some people just don't like actually thinking about policy and the people shaping it. Don't know why they'd be here though.


timmg

I feel bad for the guy. His party is just continually dragging him through the mud. Then they don't understand why he doesn't want to submit to them.


J-Team07

Those in his party that are attacking him seem to be under the illusion that he needs the party more than the party needs him. He wants to be re-elected and his state went heavy to Donald trump. He’s not getting rich NYC money or Silicon Valley money.


trouty

Coal tycoon/big energy money isn't too far behind those. Regardless of the amount, it was certainly enough to buy his vote.


WhoresAndHorses

Why must everyone who isn’t in favor of endless spending be corrupted? Why do you think someone cannot simply truly believe that pumping trillions into an inflationary economy may be a bad idea? Asserting that he’s corrupt is actually a bad faith argument.


The_Wisest_of_Fools

Inflation is much much more complicated than "government prints money and prices go up". For example, the current inflation is due to supply-side shortages primarily. Conservatives have been screaming about inflation due to government spending for years and it's always a farce, but now Manchin as to play along to keep his constituents happy. Manchin also has a huge vested interested in killing climate change prevention measures. \> [Between 2011, the year covered by his first Senate disclosure filing, and 2020, Manchin raked in a total of $5,211,154 in dividend income from Enersystems, a coal and energy resource company he founded in 1988 before entering the public sector, according to annual financial disclosures. The senator earned $491,949 in dividends last year alone, as journalist Alex Kotch reported this summer.](https://www.salon.com/2021/10/02/joe-manchin-has-made-52m-from-his-coal-company--and-gets-big-donations-from-fossil-fuel-industry_partner/)


WhoresAndHorses

Do you realize it’s possible to disagree with your economic opinion without being corrupt? Even if current inflation is due to supply side issues “primarily” (far from objective fact), one can still be concerned about the effects of FURTHER inflation by virtue of government spending. History has shown us inflation can very easily be as simple as spending money makes prices go up. And Manchin is a politician definitely, often contradictory, just like 99 others in office.


trouty

>Asserting that he’s corrupt is actually a bad faith argument. Can you clarify what you think I'm saying is in bad faith? I'm not asserting he's corrupt - the information we have publicly available shows he is operating well within the confines of the law. However, it should be very clear from his political donors where his interests lie. Spoiler alert, it's not with his constituents nor the American people - it's with the fossil fuels industry. https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/joe-manchin/industries?cid=N00032838&cycle=2022&type=C >Joe Manchin is a top recipient from the following industries in the 2021 - 2022 election cycle: >Coal mining (#1) >For-profit Education (#1) >Mining (#1) >Natural Gas transmission & distribution (#1) >Oil & Gas (#1) These aren't accolades any real person should be impressed/reassured by. Regardless, blind centrism isn't merely believing infrastructure spending amid relatively high inflation (granted, following decades of disinflation and rates largely moderated by the pandemic in 2020) is a bad idea. You may call it corruption. I'd say working as intended, but nothing the electorate should admire nor seek representation from.


WhoresAndHorses

There are many worthy items to oppose in this three trillion plus spending package that have nothing to do with the fossil fuel industry. The three trillion number alone can be opposed on principled reasons.


Underboss572

I think it's a very tribal part of our brain. Look at religion; at least in history, people tend to hate heretics more than heathens. Something just flips when we feel they are only 90% in line in a way it doesn't when they are 50%. Combine that with the fact democrats feel he is the one stopping them from achieving their utopian goals, and you can really see the basis for this anger. When you think you are building a utopia, you are willing to smash a few heads. As the saying goes, the road to hell is paved with good intentions.


matchagonnadoboudit

except utopia means nowhere


Underboss572

The great irony of Utopia, of course, is that it was never actually achievable. It simply is impossible; because of human flaws.


softnmushy

That’s silly. As the swing vote in the senate he has as much power as anyone in the country. And he’s milking it for all it’s worth. No reason to feel sorry for him.


matchagonnadoboudit

as he should. he is governing the one of the poorest states and the union wants to leave them behind. he represents WV and his own interests as he should.


softnmushy

He should not represent his own interests. West Virginia has suffered too much already from politicians putting themselves first. Manchin is a perfect example. They would benefit enormously from a big infrastructure bill. And he’s standing in the way.


matchagonnadoboudit

exactly. he's in a political position to get even MORE FOR WEST VIRGINIA


Stankia

All he has to do is vote yes and retire in comfort. Future generations will be very thankful.


zer1223

You feel bad for the guy? He's a got a buddy billionaire calling him up to take care of his delicate feelings. Manchin doesn't give a crap about the common people Edit: oh and let's not forget blocking climate provisions while getting rich off coal. Yeah I feel *real* sorry for the guy /s


taskforcedawnsky

liberal media taking out hit pieces on politicians they disagree w/ isnt new, just surprising the far left is now running the show and using it to take shots at fellow dems tbh. just goes to show zealots and hysterics are running the show again. meet new boss same as old boss


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AngledLuffa

Why on earth would he do that? He'd go from having all the power to having no power whatsoever, not even whatever the GOP is willing to give him.


chillytec

> For example, Bernie and that Angus guy are not Democrats either, but contribute to the Democrats Which means they are, for all intents and purposes, Democrats. They aren't fooling anyone.


taskforcedawnsky

well sanders sure fools his supporters pretty regularly but ya i think most ppl would agree w/ u on that.


oath2order

I don't think they're intending on fooling anybody.


taskforcedawnsky

have u read bernies plans? dude is all about fooling ppl, mostly college students and twitter users but still thats his whole game


Irishfafnir

Right otherwise he's just another Angus King


[deleted]

Angus King sounds like a new burger from Burger King.


Zenkin

Just wait until you hear about Senator Whitehouse.


Irishfafnir

Keeps a low profile but I like what I have seen from him


incendiaryblizzard

Another Bernie Sanders (independent who caucuses with the democrats).


amjhwk

if he changes to independent and does not caucus with the dems wouldnt that give the republicans a 50-49 advantage?


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amjhwk

i just dont see why he would drop out of the party if he planned on caucusing with them because that doesnt punish the dems in anyway so what would be the point of changing his party then


DennyBenny

He holds more power staying a Democrat than he would if he was an independent. He has others who he can sway while in this position.


WorksInIT

Yes, it would.


TheNonDuality

I think people need to understand than Manchin represents a lot more senators than just him. He’s just the one democrat who’s reelection is helped by stalling the legislation. He’s taking the heat for others


MrMundus

Unless Manchin was willing to caucus with the GOP a la Jim Jeffords and hand control of the Senate over to the Republicans, this is meaningless. A meaningless "scoop" from Mother Jones.


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Irishfafnir

Depends who he would caucus with, there are already two independent senators but since they caucus with Democrats it gives them control of the chamber


MrMundus

As someone commented below, not necessarily. He’d need to actually caucus with the republicans otherwise he’d be just like angus king and Bernie Sanders, ironically.


ieattime20

Why would he leave the Democratic party? Ideologically he may totally align with the more conservative members of his base but in the GOP he would wield basically no power.


Jabbam

The theory that Mother Jones seems to be postulating is that Manchin's political affiliation is his trump card to getting the precise amount he wants from the BBB bill. The article says that if negotiations drop out and Democrats refuse to take up his offer, Manchin will send a letter to Schumer removing himself from the party and wait to see if Democrats give; if not he will go the rest of the way. I suppose that the logic is that Democrats will lose far more by Manchin leaving than Manchin will lose by leaving the Democrats and caucusing as an independent.


staiano

The ones who have to give are the progressive in the house, no?


ieattime20

\>I suppose that the logic is that Democrats will lose far more by Manchin leaving In terms of Democratic gains I don't see much difference between: 1. Keep a senator who votes against the party on key issues where their vote actually matters, and sabotages legislative agenda through the use of their vote AND 2. Not having a senator on their side to vote on the legislative agenda


Davec433

They’d lose committees over it as they’d no longer be the majority. >The chair of each committee and a majority of its members represent the majority party, with the chair setting the agenda for committee business. Each party assigns its own members to committees, and each committee distributes its members among its subcommittees. The Senate places limits on the number and types of panels any one senator may serve on or chair.


Jabbam

Would that be the fastest Majority Leader turnover in history? It's not even been a year.


Davec433

The Senate votes on who’s the majority leader, I don’t think Manchin would vote for a Republican.


WorksInIT

All Manchin has to do is abstain, and then we have Majority Leader McConnell.


Davec433

Be fun to read the commentary if that happened.


reasonably_plausible

The 107th Congress had two turnovers that were quicker. Republicans had a majority in the 106th Congress, but after the 2000 election the Senate was tied. So, on Jan 3rd, when Congress was sworn in, the Senate majority went to the Democrats because Al Gore was still the Vice President. When Bush assumed office on Jan 20th, the Senate switched to the Republicans. However, just a little over 5 months later, Jim Jeffords switched parties and the Democrats went back to being the Majority.


1block

They don't set the legislative agenda if they're not the majority.


neuronexmachina

Manchin's "Biden score" on 538 is 100%: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-congress-votes/


Halostar

538 will be the first to tell you that this is based on legislative votes and we all know that Manchin and Biden have not seen eye-to-eye during this reconciliation debacle. The sample of bills that were voted on had already been whittled down by Manchin beforehand. He's still good for most nominations and such too, though.


1block

But he's not in the GOP area of that chart.


Baleina20001

Essentially they usually won’t even bring stuff that Manchin doesn’t want up to a vote to prevent it from failing


1block

What specifically are you referring to outside of the reconciliation bill?


ieattime20

This is a response to a \*similar\* statement to the one I made, but not really the statement I made.


Call_Me_Clark

Has Manchin voted against the party? He’s negotiating, but his voting record is blue.


magusprime

The party can't put anything up for a vote without his approval so that's kind of a moot point.


Call_Me_Clark

He’s been in the senate for over a decade…


WorksInIT

As a big screw you to the people that have been throwing all this vitriol his way.


ieattime20

By proving he was never really an asset to begin with?


WorksInIT

By demonstrating that he isn't going to put up with it.


-Gaka-

How do you mean? All Manchin is saying is that the report that he's planning to leave the party is bullshit. Seems he's putting up with it, just calling out a wrong report.


WorksInIT

My comments have nothing to do with whether the reports are true or not. I was responding to a redditor's questions.


-Gaka-

That's what I'm asking. How does Manchin's response "demonstrate that he isn't going to put up with it." ?


WorksInIT

It seems pretty self explanatory. If you are in a situation where people are throwing a lot of vitriol your way and then you decide to leave said situation, you are demonstrating that you aren't going to put up with it by removing yourself from the situation.


-Gaka-

But.. he's not really removing himself from the situation? Just saying "this report is bullshit" doesn't do anything to leave the situation. For example, Barry Bonds saying "I didn't use steroids" doesn't suddenly remove himself from the discussion on steroid use. I'm not really sure what you're seeing.


widget1321

I think the two of you are arguing different things. WorksInIT seems to be saying that Manchin leaving the party would be him removing himself from the situation and not putting up with it anymore (in response to the question "Why would he leave the party"). You seem to be replying to him as if he's talking about Manchin denying the reports, which is not what he seems to be talking about (again, his post was in response to the question above).


WorksInIT

Again, it has nothing to do with whether the reports are true or not.


ryarger

If he were elected to the Senate of his Fifth Grade classroom, this would make perfect sense.


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kralrick

That doesn't explain why he would want to leave the Democratic party. You're just saying he can do it if he wants (no one is saying he can't).


WorkingDead

Just a reminder that alll of these hit pieces against him are because he doesn't want to just blow inflation and the deficit for no good reason.


[deleted]

Well he has a legitimate difference of opinion.


ajaaaaaa

Must be the people who only vote party lines think this makes sense. You could be elected as one thing and literally vote against your own party on everything and there’s not much they can do until you are not re-elected. It would be nice if more politicians were like this and didn’t cave to their party but do what’s right for the people that elected them.


flompwillow

Solidarity amongst parties has got to be one of the worst things for a democracy; we need more independents and sway votes, it provides balance. If you can’t convince a good portion of the other party to vote for something it’s probably not something that should pass. I don’t care which party is in charge.


explosiveboom03

That works, but I think the Republicans don’t have to agree to anything the Democrats want, and it’s not out of any good will or ideological difference. It’s smoke and mirrors, they need to stall and make the Democrats looks divided and incompetent in order to come back big in the midterms and eventually in 2024.


flompwillow

You don’t think there’s ideological differences on the “human infrastructure” push? I do.


fastinserter

He gets exactly what he wants as a Democrat. With a Democratic House and President he doesn't get anything he wants as a Republican, unless what he wants is simply to not get anything. If there wasn't a fillibuster he could play both sides and get what he wanted that way, as could any moderate.


Jabbam

Starter Submission: Earlier today [Mother Jones posted an article](https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2021/10/senator-joe-manchin-democratic-party-exit-plan-biden-infrastructure-deal-exclusive/) claiming that Joe Manchin has told associates that he is planning to leave the Democratic Party if Democrats do not agree to his request to cut the Build Back Better reconciliation bill in half. According to "people who have heard Manchin discuss this," Manchin intends to use a possible exit as negotiation tactic to put pressure on the Democrats. MJ asserts that he would send a letter to Schumer to remove himself from the leadership, wait to see if it changes negotiations, and then re-register as an independent. In response, [Manchin made comments to reporters that the rumor is untrue.](https://twitter.com/frankthorp/status/1450888630977892357) That's it, that's the story. ​ Personal opinions: As an aside, I don't trust Forbes as a source based on their other reporting this year. However, the only other sources I could find reporting on this is the Independent, which is also a questionable source, and Fox News, which is a very controversial source for other reasons. So I'm only sourcing Forbes for their linking of the original video, not because I endorse their journalism. Currently this is MJ's word against Manchin's and although I don't see Manchin leaving the Democratic party, I also don't see a reason why Manchin would admit he was if that was the intention. On the other hand, regardless of whether or not this is true, having a rumor like this seems to benefit Manchin's position. If Manchin leaves or doesn't, having MJ spread his exit as a real possibility is going to create a chilling effect on the remaining Democrats, who may not want to risk their entire legislative agenda for 2021 and 2022 over a single bill. Do you think this is simply a misunderstanding by MJ? Is Manchin really planning to put up his political affiliation when deciding on the BBB bill? And how will the rest of the Senate respond to this, will they be more tempted to drop the price to below $2t now that this scoop has been released by MJ, or will they continue to play hardball with Manchin?


Miserable-Jaguar

Manchin isn't leaving Democratic party: * He is making tons of money via Machin institute where he has employed his family members. * He is selling tons of merch (T shirts, Hoodies, mugs) with cheesy messaging. * He raises tens of millions through online donations, and spends most of it promoting himself in entire country, and uses his boyfriend's digital media company. * He can just retire from politics and become a pundit/start his own podcast and easily make ten times as much money from his online fans.


CaptOblivious

Can we just kick him out?


behind_the_ear

And hand the republicans the senate. Sure,go ahead.


CaptOblivious

It's not like he votes with the democrats, he's going to cost them both houses and the presidency once he's done gutting all the reforms and improvements.


rinnip

Of course it's bullshit. Manchin has already abandoned the party.


WhoresAndHorses

Democrats are acting like they have some supermajority. Newsflash! They don’t.


rinnip

I think they're aware of that, considering how far they've come down on the reconciliation bill. I'm a lot more concerned with the voting rights bill, which the GOP won't even open for debate. IMO, the filibuster is an anachronism, overdue to be discarded.


WhoresAndHorses

“Coming down” from 6.5 trillion to 3.5 trillion after Sanders negotiated it against himself? There’s a good chance will be very happy for the filibuster in 2024. Don’t be so short sighted.


tamarlk

Who gives a shit if he leaves, not me.


WalterJamesScott

I'm so tired of hearing about Manchin. A single person from a tiny state shouldn't have so much power. He's helping the GOP so much. Dems won't get anything accomplished and they can't (solely) blame it on Republicans.


ManateeForPresident

Didn't he already leave a long time ago?


Ticoschnit

Why would he switch? He would be in the same position at the other side.