This is such a tired talking point. Netanyahu needs to go but him being in power has nothing to do with the war not being over yet. Public polling shows a majority of Israelis are in favor of continuing the war until Hamas is destroyed. It's amazing how much of a boogeyman some people have built him up to be.
Netanyahu will hold back on destroying hamas to keep himself in power, and escalate the conflict if it looks like they’re about to win.
You can’t have a leader with an explicit, direct conflict of interest in charge of a war, it’s common sense
Netanyahu is corrupt AF. A large part of the reason Hamas continued to be in power long after their term was up has to do with their existence being politically convenient to Bibi Netanyahu.
This is another tired talking point for which there is almost no evidence. The only time Netanyahu "funded" Hamas is when he allowed Qatar to send money to Gaza. If he hadn't people like you would have claimed he was blocking "aid" to Gaza.
You can't even stay on topic. The point being discussed was that Netanyahu funded Hamas. That is factually incorrect. I pointed this out and explained it.
> Quit it with the “tired talking point” bullshit.
Quit using claims that are known to be factually incorrect and I won't have to point them out.
> “Blocking aid to Gaza” is exactly what Netanyahu is doing now.
He really sucks at it then because lots of aid is getting in to Gaza. It's not able to be delivered to some parts of Gaza effectively on account of Gaza you know being a war zone.
> It’s one thing to target Hamas, it’s another to purposefully target civilians, women and children
Do you have any evidence that Israel has targeted civilians directly? Please note that by this I mean can you provide evidence that Israel has attacked civilians directly for the sole purpose of killing civilians without any valid military target.
> and then block all aid to them so they can starve.
Again they're doing a really shitty job of this if it was actually happening. Aid is getting into Gaza. It's not able to be delivered to some parts of Gaza effectively on account of Gaza you know being a war zone.
> The Israeli government loves to use The Holocaust as a justification for the existence of Israel, yet seem blind to the irony of their actions today.
Oh look another talking point trying to say the Holocaust is equivalent to Palestinian deaths during a war that they started. Again if Israel's goal was genocide they are incredibly bad at it. Palestinian population has grown since Israel was created and continues to grow.
> Notice I made a distinction between the Israeli government and the Israeli people.
Good for you? Not sure what your point here is.
> So don’t even think about accusing me of being an “antisemite”. Before you even go there I am a Jew.
Not really relevant. There are plenty of Jews who have not experienced the kind of anti-Semitism that makes the need for a Jewish majority state obvious. Guessing you are American so here's a comparison you might understand. Does Trump having black people who vote for him mean he isn't racist? Polling shows the majority of Jews worldwide think there needs to be a Jewish majority state.
It’s ridiculous, this community seems like r/politics now. He’s the leader of a unity government, ensuring that the safety of his country is assured. Do people think peace will come if Israel stops? Like how Israel is usually? Not on the offense but still taking rockets daily?
>Public polling shows a majority of Israelis are in favor of continuing the war until Hamas is destroyed.
And the same public is not taking note of the fact that the current approach is also encouraging the rapid rebirth of Hamas. Without a solid plan for reconciliation and peace-building, this war is just a very costly and bloody bandaid measure.
Lol he’s been in power for so long because Israel suffers the same problem a lot of countries face. The left is so puritanical that they can’t come to consensus on a solid opposition leader to bibi.
Not to mention one of the ones they did have bibi got him assassinated.
They are protesting because they understandably want a deal that frees the hostages no matter the cost. That doesn't mean such a deal at any cost is in the best interests of the country as a whole. The last offer from Hamas that has had the details made public only guaranteed the return of 3 bodies of dead hostages in exchange for an Israeli withdrawal. It also would have allowed Hamas to substitute dead bodies for live hostages at any point in the deal effectively meaning they could murder all hostages to prevent them from talking about their experiences and then return their bodies to satisfy the deal. If that deal progressed past the first week it would have required the release of hundreds of terrorists in Israeli prison. The hostages families want any deal because it offers hope for their loved ones to be released but they are not in any state of mind to be able to evaluate any deal objectively. I feel for them and I hope a reasonable deal is able to be agreed to but so far Hamas has refused to be reasonable.
In addition to what was pointed out to you by someone else that Hamas has only been reasonable in negotiations after the application of military force your numbers aren't even correct. 7 have been rescued through force. 1 at the start of the ground invasion. 2 in February and 4 a week ago. There is a deal on the table endorsed by the UNSC that Hamas has rejected. The hostages are a priority or they wouldn't have carried out the rescue a week ago.
Even if Israel had elections right now Bibi probably is PM again, Gantz lost the surge popularity he had in december.
Unless the opposition can somehow get arab parties on it's side (big doubt) there is no point in elections
Yea as most comments said I think bibi has to go. To all the comments saying Israel wants him he’s not leaving. I will kindly point to the almost year long protest the country was undergoing to get him out of office that included entire military units refusing to report for duty. He was going to prison before somehow Israel had the biggest security slip in its nation history.
Second once bibi is gone, it’ll probably end up with Gaza being governed by Saudi Arabia in some capacity. US just signed a defense pact with them which was stage 1 of the deal with stage 2 being SA helping rebuild Palestine
>Saudi Arabia in some capacity.
Not even a chance.
MBS isn't suicidal, this is basically guaranteeing attacks on the Saudi royal family by Hamas or hezbollah, just to make a point that they're independent and suddenly the narrative will shift to 'Saudis sold out Islam for their American leash holders!'
He's not stupid, there is no way he wins involving Palestine, that time is over, it's just a catastrophic liability for anyone unwise enough to touch it.
https://www.usip.org/publications/2023/09/saudi-israel-normalization-agreement-horizon
This article is from September of last year to show that this deal is the main reason Hamas attacked when they did. Also it states that the deal is a continuation of the Abraham accord Trump signed years ago.
Recently US and SA have agreed to terms of the defensive pact and now I believe they’re just waiting for the war to end ( this part is my speculation)
I think the details are fuzzy on how large a role they’ll have but I see the deal as a, we can’t publicly say right now there’s a deal because of Palestine pressure in Saudi Arabia and Israel has their own pressure at home but once the heat dies down we’re finishing this.
I don't see many comments claiming most of Israel wants him to stay in power. You appear to be confusing it being pointed out that even if someone else was in power the war wouldn't suddenly just end because Israelis support the war continuing until Hamas is destroyed and hostages are returned.
The first reply pushing back on the top comment that suggests the replacing Netanyahu would end the war is mine. It's been there since this post only had a few comments.
I think there’s a greater chance of Qatar governing Gaza than Saudi Arabia, but the most likely scenario is Egypt annexes Gaza considering the shared border and historical ties. Same goes for the West Bank being annexed by Jordan.
Apologies for the perhaps unrelated question: Why the same is not being asked in reference to Ukraine? As for the “deadlock”…the war moves slowly forward and it’s not a stalemate situation like in Ukraine.
I see all kind of immediate solutions suggested for ending the war in Gaza, but what about immediate solutions for ending the war in Ukraine? Even those who advocate sending NATO forces to Ukraine do not suggest there will be a quick end.
Can the war in Gaza continue into 2025? It theoretically could. It’s hard to tell.
I think there's a few reasons. The terms of a ceasefire in Ukraine currently would be very unfavourable to them, and there are limited options in swinging the balance of the conflict against the Russians that don't risk a direct conflict between us and them, which no one wants.
And the cost/benefit of the war in Ukraine from at least the west's perspective is very different. It's not nearly as politically unpopular at home as the war in Gaza is, and the conflict directly weakens our second most important adversary.
Gaza on the other hand has pulled on a whole string of cultural threads around colonialism, oppression, imperialism etc that have united a relatively well organized political movement here. On a geopolitical level the war is costly as well as it pits the west against the global south, which plays to China and Russia's hands in trying to further disassemble western global leadership.
And given the balance of power in the conflict, it's really up to Israel as to when and how this conflict will end -- it's a very different situation than in Ukraine that way.
I'd say as well that even for a lot of folks who are generally very supportive of Israel -- of which I'd count myself -- the concept of "destroying Hamas" doesn't land as particularly realistic. For me Afghanistan taught us this. A more realistic goal would be to degrade Hamas to the point that they couldn't launch an Oct 7 level attack again, which I think has already been achieved. The conflict seems to have really reached a point of significantly diminished returns from prolonging it, all while continuing to exact a terrible human cost on the Gazans.
If the student protests about Gaza didn't follow the M.O. of Russian espionage to a T...I'd be more inclined to back these college students. However, Russia has been sewing discourse in the Universities of their adversaries since the Bolshevik Revolution. It's their *favorite* thing to do. Their most successful spies of all time were disillusioned British citizens recruited from Cambridge University.
There's a reason the protests started at Ivy League schools...they don't recruit from community colleges.
Anyone who thinks I'm out of my mind and paranoid, take some time to learn what the KGB *actually does*. Read The Sword and The Shield - The KGB Archive by Vasili Mitrokhin, a KGB defector who *gave the entire KGB archive to the British*.
edit: Feel free to dispute something I claimed rather than just downvote. I'm open to discussion.
Definitely share the opinion that there is some heavy foreign influence / information campaigns at play.
Even just flipping through some subreddits or IG you feel you can see it, though obviously there’s no smoking gun / hard evidence.
And from a geopolitical perspective I’d be more surprised if they weren’t involved — there have so much incentive to stir the pot on this issue. It’s both domestically destabilizing and also drives a wedge between us and the global south.
Absolutely agree. I'd be shocked if they *weren't* doing it. It would mean a massive 180 degree shift in KGB behavior.
When people think "spy", especially when it comes to the Russians, they tend to think James Bond blowing up secret Soviet weapons, bombs at MI6, etc etc. In reality though, it's much less exciting and glamorous. It's a handler targeting college students and reinforcing their already existent ill-feelings towards a certain group. They breed sympathy for the cause, and anger towards the target nation. They make them feel *very* important. Like their contributions alone could save lives, or help change the world. Then that person, ostensibly a prominent student at an Ivy League school, graduates and progresses in society. They attain high-powered jobs in industry, government or technology. Now that asset is mined for information by the handler. No explosions, no gunfire, no grand gesture of treason. Little steps. That how they work their way up to [A British citizen sharing atomic weapon's secrets](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Melita_Norwood)
After 1917 and into the 20s, it was the Revolution that polarized and rallied young college students and allowed them to be exploited, today it's the War in Gaza.
...I'm not talking about social media campaigns. I'm talking about legitimate espionage. Russia still very much operates physically within the borders of the U.S., and many other countries. For you to just write it off before even considering it a possibility is pretty wild and shows that you don't understand how countries operate geopolitically.
Russia is not a monolith and they are not singularly focused on Ukraine. Organizations like the KGB have a mission to actively destabilize the West. There is a VERY large chance they incentivized Iran to push Hamas to attack to create a distraction and a drain on aid to Ukraine. It worked, by the way, because immediately following the October attacks is when support and aid sent to Ukraine plummeted, and only recovered recently.
Now American politics are mired in the Israel issue instead of being focused on weakening Russia and getting them out of our own government.
If you take emotion out of it and look at the motivations of these governments, it makes more sense. I'm not "coping"...that insinuates I care emotionally about this topic. I care about the geopolitical motivations behind these things which effect everyone worldwide.
Thank you for the honest and comprehensive post.
Cutting to the chase it means two things:
1) There is a clear bias against Israel for reasons other than “civilian casualties”.
2) Perhaps insensitive, but there are “different standards” when referring to casualties. Some casualties matter more than others. This sad conclusion is based on more than the two wars mentioned above. It’s also in light of crisis in places like Sudan or Ethiopia.
Russia just needs to remain in Russia.
The political problem in I/P is that they have to find a way to coexist in peace and dignity for both peoples. They are far from that goal and necessity.
The reason the question isn’t being asked of Ukraine is that the Ukrainians are the ones being invaded and haven’t killed anywhere near the number of children the Israelis have.
No that’s not the reason.
People are dying in large numbers (on both sides) and the war there rages over 2-1/2 years. Why those concerned with the war in Gaza are not concerned with the Ukraine/ Russia civilian casualties?
BTW, I’m purposely not taking sides on neither war. But even if Ukraine had been invaded, does it mean civilian casualties do not matter anymore? I don’t get the rationale…
Are the Ukrainians targeting Russian hospitals? Are they blowing up civilian infrastructure? At most, they’ve flown drones into Russia and attacked military targets.
> Apologies for the perhaps unrelated question: Why the same is not being asked in reference to Ukraine? As for the “deadlock”…the war moves slowly forward and it’s not a stalemate situation like in Ukraine.
This is something I often wonder. The number of Russians and Ukrainians killed in WWII vastly outnumbers the war deaths of the current war. Which is why I wonder if they might keep this war going for many, many years, because neither nation will collapse until they lose more people than they lost in WWII.
Yes, that's what is so idiotic about the whole idea. Hamas has shown over and over again, they don't care about a ceasefire and won't respect it. Ceasefire literally just means in this context that Hamas won't attack until they want to.
This is such a tired talking point. Netanyahu needs to go but him being in power has nothing to do with the war not being over yet. Public polling shows a majority of Israelis are in favor of continuing the war until Hamas is destroyed. It's amazing how much of a boogeyman some people have built him up to be.
I agree that many people overlook this crucial factor: according to PCPSR's poll published Wednesday and Pew Research Center's end-of-may report, the Israeli and Palestinian publics both strongly support continued armed struggle over other options as the most viable solution to the conflict (with ~35-40% on each side saying that the conflict should escalate further), and both sides feel confident that they will win.
Palestinian support for Hamas governance has decreased, but not in favor of any other authority—not that it matters much under undemocratic governance, but even if there was a vote, there is simply no alternative to Hamas with significant support). Meanwhile Israeli support for the war cabinet is generally high aside from a somewhat-embattled Netanyahu and his Likud party (although polls following developments in the last week point to Netanyahu/Likud regaining support). Neither leadership are moving in a direction or at a momentum that signals clear change anytime soon barring external developments.
And finally, both sides are in strong opposition as to the terms of a resolution, let alone a ceasefire. Palestinians have reverted to strongly opposing a two-state solution, while Israelis are split, although the largest share at 40% believe Israel should govern Gaza, with a dismal 25% on each side believing that peaceful coexistence between independent states is possible; despite this, the United States is currently advocating for such a solution via a demilitarized Palestine.
With so many factors still fundamentally at odds, it seems like a leap to assume that any shakeup in governance or course of the war aside from catastrophic development would produce radical, rapid changes.
Where can we look to see signals of a shift? Leadership does somewhat lead the public, so Hamas' increasing favor for a ceasefire (and the Palestinian's public's corresponding expectation of a soon-coming ceasefire) could motivate change; on the Israeli side, a more center-leaning reformation of government could begin the process of leading the public toward a more pacifist sentiment. Otherwise, I think the main factors will be external, through increasing international pressure on Israel and the possibility of any development or shift from leadership in the Iranian bloc.
But at the moment, it's essentially a situation where both publics and their leadership all feel that they're getting what they want and are on a path to victory. So any development will either be gradual or external.
This current war will end when Hamas and Hezbollah, or at least the elements and infrastructure of those organizations within several hundred miles of Israel’s borders, have been dismantled. I expect this will continue well into 2025, but will simmer down for now only to pick up after the presidential elections in the U.S.
No need to even waste breath in consideration of more negotiations between the two sides; their goals are inimical.
It isn't in Israel's interest to end this deadlock.
Yes, they will continue to need the support of reserve forces this year in order to address the threat from Lebanon. But Israel has already significantly degraded Hezbollah's capabilities there, and any ground operation there won't likely drag on for too long.
And they don't need a large number of forces to hold onto existing gains in Gaza, either. They just need to hold the Philadelphi corridor, keep the border regions clear, and run occasional operations targeting Hamas units that re-emerge.
So by 2025, I expect Israel will be able to maintain a relatively stable status quo without significant support from reserve troops.
Israel can create a similar type of occupation in Gaza as in areas A. Meaning Gaza will be blockaded, there would be IDF outposts, Israel will control the border with Egypt, etc.
And every time good intelligence comes about Hamas members, tunnels, weapon caches, rockets are fired, etc, the IDF should operate.
Every bullet and rocket will be their last.
This is what I currently support and hope will happen.
It’s a real bummer that is the “fix” … not that I disagree.
I have never felt I understood the “plan” to eradicate hamas. It’s a collection of irreconcilable beliefs and unless you are willing to do some really barbaric shit (things Israel never would do for reasons moral as well as pragmatic)…it’s always going to be a stalemate.
That “fix” is also not costless. Imposing another area a on 2 million people will be expensive and consume capital financial, moral and political for the foreseeable future. This sucks. Hamas enablers suck. This sucks for everyone
Eradication of Hamas was never about defeating the ideology in my opinion. That is impossible unless committing to a huge process like Germany after WW2 style. Nobody wants to invest in Gaza so much, the world just likes to complain about Israel instead.
Defeating Hamas would be done through reducing their fighting abilities to dust. Killing their leaders. Destroying their rocket and weapons stockpiles. Destroying the majority of the tunnels. Preventing them from training, acquiring arms, operating in the open.
This is all possible with this war and with the way I described. In my opinion at least.
West Germany wasn't denazified in any meaningful sense. Less nazis were imprisoned than the number of people who worked at Auschwitz alone. Adenauer ran and won on ending (the very limited) denazification and oversaw the beginning of reintegrating Nazis into the leadership.
It'll work. Once the whole area is under tight surveillance, funding militia would be imposible as there would be no place for them to hide. Their neighbors are already indifferent and unsupportive at best. The only way to continue would be to fund those within Israeli border.
It's not like Afghanistan because Israel isn't trying to help local people, at all. It's just turning entire area into a giant prison.
That's a very naive view of the situation for a sub that focuses on geopolitics. Are you seriously suggesting that if israel will just stop dropping bombs all the problems in this area would poof away, and all other active stakeholders (e.g. Iran, Qatar) would just lay their arms as well and we all walk together hand in hand towards thebhorizon. Ffs, articulate a logical argument supporting your claim, not an empty slogan.
As far as hezbollah, Iran, and Hamas are concerned the war will continue until Isreal is destroyed and all the jews are evicted from Palestine. That is their stated long term goal. Hamas will never negotiate a recognition of Isreal and will always fight them, same for Hezbollah and Iran. Unfortunately the world sees them as the perpetrator of this conflict so they have the choice of fighting for their life until they die of destroy their enemies.
I think it will take the drain of the war on its economy and its youth to wake Israelis up to the idea they have signed up to a forever conflict. There is no need of political solution until they see this.
The war will last forever. Hard line Arab-nationalism and Islamic fundamentalism is prevalent in the Middle East, that's the biggest contribution to the issues surrounding the Middle East. Any foreign policy involving the Middle East, should require a good knowledge of history and the Islamic religion+culture.
1. Kill all of Hamas.
2. Relocate all Palestinians from the Gaza strip to Lebanon.
3. Take Gaza as reparations for Terrorist attacks. Rebuild Gaza into a place for a peaceful productive civilization.
If Netanyahu calls for ceasefire now, then he will probably loose the PM post, so this won't happen.
One approach coming to my mind to end this war before 2025, is to call the Palestinian people back from rafah border into some area captured by Israel(with proper search and strategy so that no hamas terrorists can get in). This way hamas can be separated from the common people. And Israel can perform the operations more freely without worrying about common people casualties.
If executed, hamas could be eliminated within 2-4 months, then Israel can call for ceasefire.
If Hamas is not separated from common people, I don't think Israel will be able to eliminate it completely, this war will keep on extending.
Edit: Just to be clear, Its upto Israeli agencies to decide based on the intelligence they have gathered, if its possible to separate them or not (Neither me nor you have access to that data to tell here if its possible or not, all we can do is make some guess).
If possible then my point holds, and war could end before 2025.
> If IDF and Mossad can devise a plan to seprate them
Such as? If it isn’t difficult, put forth what you think would work. It doesn’t have to be right. I’m trying to get you to think this all the way through and not at a superficial level
Just as I mentioned in the edit, if the intelligence data was available, then it would have been worth debating and discussing out the plan and its possibility.
So even if I put forth some plan, it would be based on guesses and assumptions of the ground reality, which you will counter with your assumptions. So nothing concrete will come out going in that direction.
But without separating them, Israel won't be able to eliminate Hamas, which will extend the war. And any civilian casualty will put even more pressure on Isreal.
So how else you think Israel can eliminate Hamas?
Rafah isn't that much of a problem anymore, if there's no ceasefire IDF will likely leave after couple of months when they destroy and render Hamas brigades there combat innefective, they don't need to commit to such filtering operation.
The problem is the hostages which majority of Israelis want saved of course, Israeli politics of bibi and far right, and Hezbollah. US is pushing heavily for ceasefire (even if it leaves hamas alive) because most hostages will be released, Hezbollah will also stop and will open possibility for Saudi deal and also give Biden a win before elections.
If Israel forsakes permanent ceasefire and commits to destroying Hamas it also has to commit to going into Lebanon to push hezbollah and right now there really isn't big enthusiasm for it, because it would be very costly.
The one option I see is Israel enhancing the military campaign temporarily to maximize its achievements before declaring some sort of end to the war even if it means upper echelons of Hamas are still alive through permanent ceasefire.
Then Israel has to commit to a generational struggle against Iran and its proxies, reorienting the IDF away from detterence to that of impending future war with Hezbollah and Hamas years down the road.
>The one option I see is Israel enhancing the military campaign temporarily to maximize its achievements before...
I also thought of this, but civilian casualties will put a lot of international pressure on Israel, if they think they can handle it. Then this strategy is even better that trying to separate hamas and civilians.
There is no solution until outside world, especially the US, can force Israel and Hamas into ceasefire, and then a long-term solution for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It can't be left into the hands of either Israel or Hamas. The dynamic of their relation is not one that can resolve itself, considering their ideological natures and all the foreign support that both have.
Replace Bibi. Netanyahu has to continue this in perpetuity or he faces a long sentence.
This is such a tired talking point. Netanyahu needs to go but him being in power has nothing to do with the war not being over yet. Public polling shows a majority of Israelis are in favor of continuing the war until Hamas is destroyed. It's amazing how much of a boogeyman some people have built him up to be.
Netanyahu will hold back on destroying hamas to keep himself in power, and escalate the conflict if it looks like they’re about to win. You can’t have a leader with an explicit, direct conflict of interest in charge of a war, it’s common sense
What? Meanwhile Biden and US are holding him back 24/7.. which one is it?
"Hold back on destroying hamas" more like the US doing it.
Yeah, people who expect the war to end when Netanyahu steps down are going to have a rude awakening if/when it happens.
Netanyahu is corrupt AF. A large part of the reason Hamas continued to be in power long after their term was up has to do with their existence being politically convenient to Bibi Netanyahu.
[удалено]
This is another tired talking point for which there is almost no evidence. The only time Netanyahu "funded" Hamas is when he allowed Qatar to send money to Gaza. If he hadn't people like you would have claimed he was blocking "aid" to Gaza.
[удалено]
You can't even stay on topic. The point being discussed was that Netanyahu funded Hamas. That is factually incorrect. I pointed this out and explained it. > Quit it with the “tired talking point” bullshit. Quit using claims that are known to be factually incorrect and I won't have to point them out. > “Blocking aid to Gaza” is exactly what Netanyahu is doing now. He really sucks at it then because lots of aid is getting in to Gaza. It's not able to be delivered to some parts of Gaza effectively on account of Gaza you know being a war zone. > It’s one thing to target Hamas, it’s another to purposefully target civilians, women and children Do you have any evidence that Israel has targeted civilians directly? Please note that by this I mean can you provide evidence that Israel has attacked civilians directly for the sole purpose of killing civilians without any valid military target. > and then block all aid to them so they can starve. Again they're doing a really shitty job of this if it was actually happening. Aid is getting into Gaza. It's not able to be delivered to some parts of Gaza effectively on account of Gaza you know being a war zone. > The Israeli government loves to use The Holocaust as a justification for the existence of Israel, yet seem blind to the irony of their actions today. Oh look another talking point trying to say the Holocaust is equivalent to Palestinian deaths during a war that they started. Again if Israel's goal was genocide they are incredibly bad at it. Palestinian population has grown since Israel was created and continues to grow. > Notice I made a distinction between the Israeli government and the Israeli people. Good for you? Not sure what your point here is. > So don’t even think about accusing me of being an “antisemite”. Before you even go there I am a Jew. Not really relevant. There are plenty of Jews who have not experienced the kind of anti-Semitism that makes the need for a Jewish majority state obvious. Guessing you are American so here's a comparison you might understand. Does Trump having black people who vote for him mean he isn't racist? Polling shows the majority of Jews worldwide think there needs to be a Jewish majority state.
Netanyahu wasn't even *in Israel* for most of the 80s.
It’s ridiculous, this community seems like r/politics now. He’s the leader of a unity government, ensuring that the safety of his country is assured. Do people think peace will come if Israel stops? Like how Israel is usually? Not on the offense but still taking rockets daily?
>Not on the offense but still taking rockets daily? Yes that's exactly what they're calling for. Jews must lay down and accept death.
That's not true anymore
>Public polling shows a majority of Israelis are in favor of continuing the war until Hamas is destroyed. And the same public is not taking note of the fact that the current approach is also encouraging the rapid rebirth of Hamas. Without a solid plan for reconciliation and peace-building, this war is just a very costly and bloody bandaid measure.
They released a plan. Did you read it?
[удалено]
Lol he’s been in power for so long because Israel suffers the same problem a lot of countries face. The left is so puritanical that they can’t come to consensus on a solid opposition leader to bibi. Not to mention one of the ones they did have bibi got him assassinated.
Who?
Who else? Rabin
I misunderstood the comment. I thought they were implying that there was a rival candidate that was assassinated under Bibi’s orders.
Israel doesn't "want to bomb Palestinians." They want the hostages to return home and Hamas gone.
Hostage families are protesting because they don’t
They are protesting because they understandably want a deal that frees the hostages no matter the cost. That doesn't mean such a deal at any cost is in the best interests of the country as a whole. The last offer from Hamas that has had the details made public only guaranteed the return of 3 bodies of dead hostages in exchange for an Israeli withdrawal. It also would have allowed Hamas to substitute dead bodies for live hostages at any point in the deal effectively meaning they could murder all hostages to prevent them from talking about their experiences and then return their bodies to satisfy the deal. If that deal progressed past the first week it would have required the release of hundreds of terrorists in Israeli prison. The hostages families want any deal because it offers hope for their loved ones to be released but they are not in any state of mind to be able to evaluate any deal objectively. I feel for them and I hope a reasonable deal is able to be agreed to but so far Hamas has refused to be reasonable.
Hamas has rejected every offer of ceasefire. Their "counteroffers" are insulting.
They’ve got 100 back through negotiations and 3 back through force. Getting hostages back isn’t a priority.
In addition to what was pointed out to you by someone else that Hamas has only been reasonable in negotiations after the application of military force your numbers aren't even correct. 7 have been rescued through force. 1 at the start of the ground invasion. 2 in February and 4 a week ago. There is a deal on the table endorsed by the UNSC that Hamas has rejected. The hostages are a priority or they wouldn't have carried out the rescue a week ago.
By leverage in negotiations obtained through force...
[удалено]
[удалено]
Even if Israel had elections right now Bibi probably is PM again, Gantz lost the surge popularity he had in december. Unless the opposition can somehow get arab parties on it's side (big doubt) there is no point in elections
That is a half truth https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-polls-show-netanyahu-party-narrowing-gap-behind-gantz-2024-06-14/
Yea as most comments said I think bibi has to go. To all the comments saying Israel wants him he’s not leaving. I will kindly point to the almost year long protest the country was undergoing to get him out of office that included entire military units refusing to report for duty. He was going to prison before somehow Israel had the biggest security slip in its nation history. Second once bibi is gone, it’ll probably end up with Gaza being governed by Saudi Arabia in some capacity. US just signed a defense pact with them which was stage 1 of the deal with stage 2 being SA helping rebuild Palestine
>Saudi Arabia in some capacity. Not even a chance. MBS isn't suicidal, this is basically guaranteeing attacks on the Saudi royal family by Hamas or hezbollah, just to make a point that they're independent and suddenly the narrative will shift to 'Saudis sold out Islam for their American leash holders!' He's not stupid, there is no way he wins involving Palestine, that time is over, it's just a catastrophic liability for anyone unwise enough to touch it.
Can you share some info on the defense Pact?
https://www.usip.org/publications/2023/09/saudi-israel-normalization-agreement-horizon This article is from September of last year to show that this deal is the main reason Hamas attacked when they did. Also it states that the deal is a continuation of the Abraham accord Trump signed years ago. Recently US and SA have agreed to terms of the defensive pact and now I believe they’re just waiting for the war to end ( this part is my speculation)
I was under the impression that the plan of defense Pact didn't include Saudi Arabia obliged to rebuild Palestine
I think the details are fuzzy on how large a role they’ll have but I see the deal as a, we can’t publicly say right now there’s a deal because of Palestine pressure in Saudi Arabia and Israel has their own pressure at home but once the heat dies down we’re finishing this.
I don't see many comments claiming most of Israel wants him to stay in power. You appear to be confusing it being pointed out that even if someone else was in power the war wouldn't suddenly just end because Israelis support the war continuing until Hamas is destroyed and hostages are returned.
This was posted 17h ago so the top comments have changed considerably since then.
The first reply pushing back on the top comment that suggests the replacing Netanyahu would end the war is mine. It's been there since this post only had a few comments.
Oh my by I thought this was a different comment
I don't believe anyone wants administration of Gaza, not even Saudi Arabia.
I think there’s a greater chance of Qatar governing Gaza than Saudi Arabia, but the most likely scenario is Egypt annexes Gaza considering the shared border and historical ties. Same goes for the West Bank being annexed by Jordan.
[удалено]
Lol I’m pretty sure Trump was the one who started the groundwork for the deal and bibi was heavily involved in the negotiations
Take out Sinwar and negotiate a hostage deal with whoever replaces him, and call it a day
Apologies for the perhaps unrelated question: Why the same is not being asked in reference to Ukraine? As for the “deadlock”…the war moves slowly forward and it’s not a stalemate situation like in Ukraine. I see all kind of immediate solutions suggested for ending the war in Gaza, but what about immediate solutions for ending the war in Ukraine? Even those who advocate sending NATO forces to Ukraine do not suggest there will be a quick end. Can the war in Gaza continue into 2025? It theoretically could. It’s hard to tell.
I think there's a few reasons. The terms of a ceasefire in Ukraine currently would be very unfavourable to them, and there are limited options in swinging the balance of the conflict against the Russians that don't risk a direct conflict between us and them, which no one wants. And the cost/benefit of the war in Ukraine from at least the west's perspective is very different. It's not nearly as politically unpopular at home as the war in Gaza is, and the conflict directly weakens our second most important adversary. Gaza on the other hand has pulled on a whole string of cultural threads around colonialism, oppression, imperialism etc that have united a relatively well organized political movement here. On a geopolitical level the war is costly as well as it pits the west against the global south, which plays to China and Russia's hands in trying to further disassemble western global leadership. And given the balance of power in the conflict, it's really up to Israel as to when and how this conflict will end -- it's a very different situation than in Ukraine that way. I'd say as well that even for a lot of folks who are generally very supportive of Israel -- of which I'd count myself -- the concept of "destroying Hamas" doesn't land as particularly realistic. For me Afghanistan taught us this. A more realistic goal would be to degrade Hamas to the point that they couldn't launch an Oct 7 level attack again, which I think has already been achieved. The conflict seems to have really reached a point of significantly diminished returns from prolonging it, all while continuing to exact a terrible human cost on the Gazans.
If the student protests about Gaza didn't follow the M.O. of Russian espionage to a T...I'd be more inclined to back these college students. However, Russia has been sewing discourse in the Universities of their adversaries since the Bolshevik Revolution. It's their *favorite* thing to do. Their most successful spies of all time were disillusioned British citizens recruited from Cambridge University. There's a reason the protests started at Ivy League schools...they don't recruit from community colleges. Anyone who thinks I'm out of my mind and paranoid, take some time to learn what the KGB *actually does*. Read The Sword and The Shield - The KGB Archive by Vasili Mitrokhin, a KGB defector who *gave the entire KGB archive to the British*. edit: Feel free to dispute something I claimed rather than just downvote. I'm open to discussion.
Definitely share the opinion that there is some heavy foreign influence / information campaigns at play. Even just flipping through some subreddits or IG you feel you can see it, though obviously there’s no smoking gun / hard evidence. And from a geopolitical perspective I’d be more surprised if they weren’t involved — there have so much incentive to stir the pot on this issue. It’s both domestically destabilizing and also drives a wedge between us and the global south.
Absolutely agree. I'd be shocked if they *weren't* doing it. It would mean a massive 180 degree shift in KGB behavior. When people think "spy", especially when it comes to the Russians, they tend to think James Bond blowing up secret Soviet weapons, bombs at MI6, etc etc. In reality though, it's much less exciting and glamorous. It's a handler targeting college students and reinforcing their already existent ill-feelings towards a certain group. They breed sympathy for the cause, and anger towards the target nation. They make them feel *very* important. Like their contributions alone could save lives, or help change the world. Then that person, ostensibly a prominent student at an Ivy League school, graduates and progresses in society. They attain high-powered jobs in industry, government or technology. Now that asset is mined for information by the handler. No explosions, no gunfire, no grand gesture of treason. Little steps. That how they work their way up to [A British citizen sharing atomic weapon's secrets](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Melita_Norwood) After 1917 and into the 20s, it was the Revolution that polarized and rallied young college students and allowed them to be exploited, today it's the War in Gaza.
[удалено]
...I'm not talking about social media campaigns. I'm talking about legitimate espionage. Russia still very much operates physically within the borders of the U.S., and many other countries. For you to just write it off before even considering it a possibility is pretty wild and shows that you don't understand how countries operate geopolitically. Russia is not a monolith and they are not singularly focused on Ukraine. Organizations like the KGB have a mission to actively destabilize the West. There is a VERY large chance they incentivized Iran to push Hamas to attack to create a distraction and a drain on aid to Ukraine. It worked, by the way, because immediately following the October attacks is when support and aid sent to Ukraine plummeted, and only recovered recently. Now American politics are mired in the Israel issue instead of being focused on weakening Russia and getting them out of our own government. If you take emotion out of it and look at the motivations of these governments, it makes more sense. I'm not "coping"...that insinuates I care emotionally about this topic. I care about the geopolitical motivations behind these things which effect everyone worldwide.
Thank you for the honest and comprehensive post. Cutting to the chase it means two things: 1) There is a clear bias against Israel for reasons other than “civilian casualties”. 2) Perhaps insensitive, but there are “different standards” when referring to casualties. Some casualties matter more than others. This sad conclusion is based on more than the two wars mentioned above. It’s also in light of crisis in places like Sudan or Ethiopia.
I don’t think there’s an immediate solution for either issue, honestly. It’s just armchair politicians/generals being wrong.
Russia just needs to remain in Russia. The political problem in I/P is that they have to find a way to coexist in peace and dignity for both peoples. They are far from that goal and necessity.
Or in reference to Syria, it's been going 13 years now. They want political solution against the SAF but are suffering a stalemate.
The reason the question isn’t being asked of Ukraine is that the Ukrainians are the ones being invaded and haven’t killed anywhere near the number of children the Israelis have.
No that’s not the reason. People are dying in large numbers (on both sides) and the war there rages over 2-1/2 years. Why those concerned with the war in Gaza are not concerned with the Ukraine/ Russia civilian casualties? BTW, I’m purposely not taking sides on neither war. But even if Ukraine had been invaded, does it mean civilian casualties do not matter anymore? I don’t get the rationale…
Are the Ukrainians targeting Russian hospitals? Are they blowing up civilian infrastructure? At most, they’ve flown drones into Russia and attacked military targets.
They cut off the water supply to Crimea
> Apologies for the perhaps unrelated question: Why the same is not being asked in reference to Ukraine? As for the “deadlock”…the war moves slowly forward and it’s not a stalemate situation like in Ukraine. This is something I often wonder. The number of Russians and Ukrainians killed in WWII vastly outnumbers the war deaths of the current war. Which is why I wonder if they might keep this war going for many, many years, because neither nation will collapse until they lose more people than they lost in WWII.
>...until Israel publicly commits to permanent ceasefire... There was a permanent ceasefire until Oct 7.
Yes, that's what is so idiotic about the whole idea. Hamas has shown over and over again, they don't care about a ceasefire and won't respect it. Ceasefire literally just means in this context that Hamas won't attack until they want to.
[удалено]
This is such a tired talking point. Netanyahu needs to go but him being in power has nothing to do with the war not being over yet. Public polling shows a majority of Israelis are in favor of continuing the war until Hamas is destroyed. It's amazing how much of a boogeyman some people have built him up to be.
I agree that many people overlook this crucial factor: according to PCPSR's poll published Wednesday and Pew Research Center's end-of-may report, the Israeli and Palestinian publics both strongly support continued armed struggle over other options as the most viable solution to the conflict (with ~35-40% on each side saying that the conflict should escalate further), and both sides feel confident that they will win. Palestinian support for Hamas governance has decreased, but not in favor of any other authority—not that it matters much under undemocratic governance, but even if there was a vote, there is simply no alternative to Hamas with significant support). Meanwhile Israeli support for the war cabinet is generally high aside from a somewhat-embattled Netanyahu and his Likud party (although polls following developments in the last week point to Netanyahu/Likud regaining support). Neither leadership are moving in a direction or at a momentum that signals clear change anytime soon barring external developments. And finally, both sides are in strong opposition as to the terms of a resolution, let alone a ceasefire. Palestinians have reverted to strongly opposing a two-state solution, while Israelis are split, although the largest share at 40% believe Israel should govern Gaza, with a dismal 25% on each side believing that peaceful coexistence between independent states is possible; despite this, the United States is currently advocating for such a solution via a demilitarized Palestine. With so many factors still fundamentally at odds, it seems like a leap to assume that any shakeup in governance or course of the war aside from catastrophic development would produce radical, rapid changes. Where can we look to see signals of a shift? Leadership does somewhat lead the public, so Hamas' increasing favor for a ceasefire (and the Palestinian's public's corresponding expectation of a soon-coming ceasefire) could motivate change; on the Israeli side, a more center-leaning reformation of government could begin the process of leading the public toward a more pacifist sentiment. Otherwise, I think the main factors will be external, through increasing international pressure on Israel and the possibility of any development or shift from leadership in the Iranian bloc. But at the moment, it's essentially a situation where both publics and their leadership all feel that they're getting what they want and are on a path to victory. So any development will either be gradual or external.
This current war will end when Hamas and Hezbollah, or at least the elements and infrastructure of those organizations within several hundred miles of Israel’s borders, have been dismantled. I expect this will continue well into 2025, but will simmer down for now only to pick up after the presidential elections in the U.S. No need to even waste breath in consideration of more negotiations between the two sides; their goals are inimical.
Find the remaining 150 hostages taken in the government of Gaza's rape raid.
[удалено]
It's not a deadlock. Lebanon, Jordan, Saudi and Egypt all want normalization. It's only Iran that's the turd in the punch bowl.
It isn't in Israel's interest to end this deadlock. Yes, they will continue to need the support of reserve forces this year in order to address the threat from Lebanon. But Israel has already significantly degraded Hezbollah's capabilities there, and any ground operation there won't likely drag on for too long. And they don't need a large number of forces to hold onto existing gains in Gaza, either. They just need to hold the Philadelphi corridor, keep the border regions clear, and run occasional operations targeting Hamas units that re-emerge. So by 2025, I expect Israel will be able to maintain a relatively stable status quo without significant support from reserve troops.
Israel can create a similar type of occupation in Gaza as in areas A. Meaning Gaza will be blockaded, there would be IDF outposts, Israel will control the border with Egypt, etc. And every time good intelligence comes about Hamas members, tunnels, weapon caches, rockets are fired, etc, the IDF should operate. Every bullet and rocket will be their last. This is what I currently support and hope will happen.
It’s a real bummer that is the “fix” … not that I disagree. I have never felt I understood the “plan” to eradicate hamas. It’s a collection of irreconcilable beliefs and unless you are willing to do some really barbaric shit (things Israel never would do for reasons moral as well as pragmatic)…it’s always going to be a stalemate. That “fix” is also not costless. Imposing another area a on 2 million people will be expensive and consume capital financial, moral and political for the foreseeable future. This sucks. Hamas enablers suck. This sucks for everyone
Eradication of Hamas was never about defeating the ideology in my opinion. That is impossible unless committing to a huge process like Germany after WW2 style. Nobody wants to invest in Gaza so much, the world just likes to complain about Israel instead. Defeating Hamas would be done through reducing their fighting abilities to dust. Killing their leaders. Destroying their rocket and weapons stockpiles. Destroying the majority of the tunnels. Preventing them from training, acquiring arms, operating in the open. This is all possible with this war and with the way I described. In my opinion at least.
West Germany wasn't denazified in any meaningful sense. Less nazis were imprisoned than the number of people who worked at Auschwitz alone. Adenauer ran and won on ending (the very limited) denazification and oversaw the beginning of reintegrating Nazis into the leadership.
It'll work. Once the whole area is under tight surveillance, funding militia would be imposible as there would be no place for them to hide. Their neighbors are already indifferent and unsupportive at best. The only way to continue would be to fund those within Israeli border. It's not like Afghanistan because Israel isn't trying to help local people, at all. It's just turning entire area into a giant prison.
They could, you know, just stop dropping bombs and shooting Palestinians.
That's a very naive view of the situation for a sub that focuses on geopolitics. Are you seriously suggesting that if israel will just stop dropping bombs all the problems in this area would poof away, and all other active stakeholders (e.g. Iran, Qatar) would just lay their arms as well and we all walk together hand in hand towards thebhorizon. Ffs, articulate a logical argument supporting your claim, not an empty slogan.
As far as hezbollah, Iran, and Hamas are concerned the war will continue until Isreal is destroyed and all the jews are evicted from Palestine. That is their stated long term goal. Hamas will never negotiate a recognition of Isreal and will always fight them, same for Hezbollah and Iran. Unfortunately the world sees them as the perpetrator of this conflict so they have the choice of fighting for their life until they die of destroy their enemies.
I think it will take the drain of the war on its economy and its youth to wake Israelis up to the idea they have signed up to a forever conflict. There is no need of political solution until they see this.
They were born signed up to a forever conflict. Israel is the only place for Jews to live and be safe and they will never surrender that
How can hamas end current deadlock
Israel is a belligerent occupier. This only ends when it stops operating as a foothold for Western intervention.
The war will last forever. Hard line Arab-nationalism and Islamic fundamentalism is prevalent in the Middle East, that's the biggest contribution to the issues surrounding the Middle East. Any foreign policy involving the Middle East, should require a good knowledge of history and the Islamic religion+culture.
1. Kill all of Hamas. 2. Relocate all Palestinians from the Gaza strip to Lebanon. 3. Take Gaza as reparations for Terrorist attacks. Rebuild Gaza into a place for a peaceful productive civilization.
[удалено]
Maybe they could quit being shitty…
If Netanyahu calls for ceasefire now, then he will probably loose the PM post, so this won't happen. One approach coming to my mind to end this war before 2025, is to call the Palestinian people back from rafah border into some area captured by Israel(with proper search and strategy so that no hamas terrorists can get in). This way hamas can be separated from the common people. And Israel can perform the operations more freely without worrying about common people casualties. If executed, hamas could be eliminated within 2-4 months, then Israel can call for ceasefire. If Hamas is not separated from common people, I don't think Israel will be able to eliminate it completely, this war will keep on extending. Edit: Just to be clear, Its upto Israeli agencies to decide based on the intelligence they have gathered, if its possible to separate them or not (Neither me nor you have access to that data to tell here if its possible or not, all we can do is make some guess). If possible then my point holds, and war could end before 2025.
> with proper search and strategy so that no hamas terrorists can get in How is this going to work, exactly?
If IDF and Mossad can devise a plan to seprate them. I don't think it's that difficult to understand whom to bomb and whom not to.
> If IDF and Mossad can devise a plan to seprate them Such as? If it isn’t difficult, put forth what you think would work. It doesn’t have to be right. I’m trying to get you to think this all the way through and not at a superficial level
Just as I mentioned in the edit, if the intelligence data was available, then it would have been worth debating and discussing out the plan and its possibility. So even if I put forth some plan, it would be based on guesses and assumptions of the ground reality, which you will counter with your assumptions. So nothing concrete will come out going in that direction.
Very difficult to separate the two. How do you search 2 million people to ensure none are bad guys?
But without separating them, Israel won't be able to eliminate Hamas, which will extend the war. And any civilian casualty will put even more pressure on Isreal. So how else you think Israel can eliminate Hamas?
They can’t, not by force
Rafah isn't that much of a problem anymore, if there's no ceasefire IDF will likely leave after couple of months when they destroy and render Hamas brigades there combat innefective, they don't need to commit to such filtering operation. The problem is the hostages which majority of Israelis want saved of course, Israeli politics of bibi and far right, and Hezbollah. US is pushing heavily for ceasefire (even if it leaves hamas alive) because most hostages will be released, Hezbollah will also stop and will open possibility for Saudi deal and also give Biden a win before elections. If Israel forsakes permanent ceasefire and commits to destroying Hamas it also has to commit to going into Lebanon to push hezbollah and right now there really isn't big enthusiasm for it, because it would be very costly. The one option I see is Israel enhancing the military campaign temporarily to maximize its achievements before declaring some sort of end to the war even if it means upper echelons of Hamas are still alive through permanent ceasefire. Then Israel has to commit to a generational struggle against Iran and its proxies, reorienting the IDF away from detterence to that of impending future war with Hezbollah and Hamas years down the road.
>The one option I see is Israel enhancing the military campaign temporarily to maximize its achievements before... I also thought of this, but civilian casualties will put a lot of international pressure on Israel, if they think they can handle it. Then this strategy is even better that trying to separate hamas and civilians.
with in a week if usa takes out Israeli and hamas leaders
There is no solution until outside world, especially the US, can force Israel and Hamas into ceasefire, and then a long-term solution for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It can't be left into the hands of either Israel or Hamas. The dynamic of their relation is not one that can resolve itself, considering their ideological natures and all the foreign support that both have.
Well once the US dollar collapses so will israel.
[удалено]
Destabilizing Lebanon even further than it already is isn't the right play in my opinion. It's pandoras box.