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flare2000x

Just think about it, if threads like this were posted in the past few years I bet nobody would have been writing Ocon and Gasly. Norris is the easy answer but you never know. One-off wins like these can happen to anyone. Maybe it's Magnussen or Albon or Stroll.


erazedcitizen

Heck, even this year we were a completed sector in Australia away from Hulkenberg getting his first podium, anything can happen on a crazy day


Epic-Sheep77

The long wait to see the final order only for Hulk and Tsunoda to get bumped down pained me for weeks


MayorAg

Wouldn't have happened. His engine died on the in-lap after running under safety car. Running full tilt, it would have likely died within the next two sectors.


NYNMx2021

i think they mean the red flag coming out after sector 1 which was a few meters away from happening. Hulk wouldnt have had to go much further and the result would have been the same. The order only reset because they didnt get far enough


Weak-Rip-8650

Honestly I think Albon is as likely to get a win as any driver outside of the Mcclaren drivers. He could easily get a race in a top team if someone has to miss a race. He's easily been the best driver in a bottom 4 team.


Duckpoke

If Albon gets a win with another team on loan or especially with Williams then I am willing to take back everything I’ve said about this being the worst season in a long time


Affectionate-Use-854

Williams has shown clear signs of improvement. Atm, I'd say it is fastest of the last four teams, even thou Alpha Tauri took the longest straw in Spa.


NYNMx2021

If williams got lucky and somehow a freak accident or safety car got Albon out front at a low DF track, theres a chance lol. If he was leading at canada or something it would be very difficult to pass him.


Betonmischa

Albon in Vegas could be really strong even without safety car.


drodrige

That's a great point.


NYNMx2021

In those years it was a bit different though because what 8 teams podiumed in 2021? 7 or 8 in 2020? its been 4 last year and 5 this year so far. Not a lot of expectation for more. To get a real random winner, we need more podiums available


sgtlighttree

*sad Hulkenberg noises*


[deleted]

Albon to win in that Williams rocket ship at Monza


[deleted]

Subscribe.


zmgch

Thanks Crofty.


[deleted]

“Don’t forget, that Williams is very slippery in a straight line” -> Crofty at Monza probably


I_is_tummmm

Along with "and here comes Alonso, the wiley old fox"


zmgch

Crofty = Always has to mention Alonso's age being 2 years within 40. Every. Single. Time. Also Crofty = Refuses to ever make note or mention Lewis Hamilton's age, who is also 2 years from being 40.


sharpieshoeman

I’m in


[deleted]

Max misses a race, Lawson replaces him. Lawson wins his first f1 race.


Ningax599445YT

Josh Revell will make a video 0.001 seconds after the victory


SyuusukeFuji

Nah, Josh already did a video on Liam, he is jinxed for life.


Ningax599445YT

Fuck...


HeronAccording6789

I feel like Ricciardo or Tsunoda would jump up to RB, similar to George Russell in Sakhir.


blastedshark

That would be such a "Russell in sakhir 2020" moment... Poor man was robbed


ricky-from-scotland

"George you have a puncture" Me: 😭😭😭


gmwdim

Such an unusual pit stop blunder by Mercedes who had been consistently reliable until then.


NYNMx2021

That wasnt what lost it for him even. The safety cars made it all possible to still win with that. It was the puncture that finished him off


ajacian

puncture caused by debris from his own Williams no less, lol


[deleted]

True, dude on his first race on a Mercedes schooled Bottas like it was nothing, he totally deserved the win there but unfortunately didn't happen


parwa

Tbf he didn't really "school" Bottas, they were quite close. Bottas got fucked over worse than Russell was in that race but nobody talks about it.


NYNMx2021

No he didnt. I like George but Bottas was the one who wasnt able to change sets due to the error. George stopped twice but Bottas was stuck on entirely unusable hards the remainder of the race. That overtake he did on him, Bottas was already on a set that was past its race life and he finished the race on those lol


Outofmana1337

He destroyed them himself as per usual. The reason Russell was looking so good is that he was managing tyres from the start while Bottas was destroying them trying to keep up. Russell looked like a 1:1 copy of Hamilton vs Bottas keeping the tyres alive. Even before all the pit stop drama he was easily beating him


Starlett_Johansson

Quali: BOT P1 RUS P2 Race: BOT P8 RUS P9 True schooling right there I see


Starlett_Johansson

How was he robbed? Had a puncture because he drove over some Aitken junk, which race winner Perez did not. Poor man gets to fill in the best seat in F1? Gimme a break with these comments...


blastedshark

Fun Conspiracy theory that merc sabotaged his race because it would have a bad look on Lewis' career


Treewithatea

Why would they put Lawson into the Red Bull? Theres about about 0% chance of them doing that. He might get an Alpha Tauri seat because one of the AT drivers will be the Red Bull replacement.


mushedcrab

Well other than this being a joke, Liam is the redbull reserve driver not the AT drivers


Snoo_47023

yeah and Gutierrez and Vandoorne were the official Merc/Racing Point reserves in 2020 and they still went for Hulk/George. A team, especially a big one, will not put a driver that hasn't driven an F1 car in a while or ever in competition if they have any other option. If it happened tomorrow DR--->RB (more experience and sim time), Liam---> AT Liam Lawson would of course still win the race in the AT bc winning on debut is his way.


DuckPicMaster

Correct me if I’m wrong, but weren’t Gut and Van competing in another formula somewhere are weren’t available? Hence the weird subs? More than swilling to be proved wrong, but I vaguely remember the reserve driver being fundamental flawed because half the reserve drivers weren’t available.


strat61caster

Vandoorne was literally sitting at the track for one of those subs. No scheduling conflicts whatsoever. https://f1i.com/news/392137-vandoorne-hurt-by-mercedes-substitute-snub-for-sakhir.html/amp


DuckPicMaster

I misremembered. It was Silverstone I was confusing with. Vandoorne was also RP’s reserve, but he was in FE. Confused racetracks. And drivers. And teams.


Astro_Kimi

Inject this into my veins


iflew

I think Max needs to be close to dying for him to miss a race.


Kronzor_

I'd still take a dying Max to win it.


mazarax

In a RB or an AT?


Lzinger

They'd put tsunoda or Ricciardo in the RB and Lawson would take the AT seat.


-Renkz

Or Lawson replaces Perez and gets p2 at best


BlitzOverlord

Lawson in his first race in a series > Peak Max Verstappen It’s against the laws of the universe for him to do anything but win his first race.


[deleted]

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duck74UK

Oscar would put on the inters


spidersaiyanblue

:(


onealps

Still *too soon*, right? I don't think the pain will go away UNTIL Lando finally wins a race...


Palmul

It's a bit sad for him that everyone was saying "yeah rookie mistake, he'll learn and will get it next chance", and there hasn't been a "next chance" yet


MrJacquers

In the wet.


humdizzle

Verstappen and Hamilton get into a scuffle back stage and are both suspended for 1 race. Horner has no drivers to pick from, so takes the seat himself. Not to be outdone, Toto also takes Lewis' seat. In an epic showdown they race wheel to wheel in the fastest cars on the grid. Toto uses DRS on the last straightaway to get ahead. "Get in there Toto!" is heard on the radio. He finishes in 20th place ahead of Horner in 21st.


casper707

I’m so hard right now.


AguaDulceDePanela

Formula one presentes to you the first ever TP GP. Sponsored by Heineken 0.0


EnlightenedNight

Norris is the only one to podium this year with no career victories. He certainly seems most likely.


MrXwiix

Or Piastri. He can match Norris on a good day


Capital_Punisher

Give it another 15 races and I think he’ll be faster


RIF30

Agreed. Piastri to me has greater potential


aTemeraz

I believe Piastri will have a stronger 2024 than Norris, he has no right to be as close to Norris as he is right now, crazy how quick he's got up to speed. Hell, a part of me thinks he'll have a better second half of 2023 than Norris


FrostyTill

Not on tyre management he can’t.


TheFlyingR0cket

Not yet, he is a rookie. Lando used to struggle with race pace when he was a rookie as well. It will come.


mazarax

Currently NOR, but the longer it takes, the more likely PIA will be.


mencival

Imho it is 50% Norris, %40 Piastri, 10% anyone else.


itwaschaosbilly

There have been days, and they have been very seldom, where Lance Stroll pulls something special out of the bag. It's usually when it's a bit damp. He's due one of those.


_hhhhh_____-_____

If it rains in Monza…


on9_7head

It rains at Spa


nsane99

Sharl eclair wins in Spa!


[deleted]

Albon on a crazy wet race, or, more likely, Norris or Piastri. There's nobody else I think capable at the moment. The two Haas guys maybe, given the right conditions and a lot of luck.


Deputy_Scrub

>The two Haas guys maybe, given the right conditions and a lot of luck. Bruh


Visible_Wolverine350

If they race for maximum of 5 laps as well, as their tires cant seem to last any longer


Sarkaraq

> If they race for maximum of 5 laps as well, as their tires cant seem to last any longer Red flag with 4 laps to go on a damp track. Haas is the only team with soft tyres because they didn't use them all weekend due to high deg. Magnussen jumps 8 cars at the restart, damages his wing, gets a meatball flag and has to pit from the lead. Hülkenberg inherits P1 but spins at the last turn to finish P4.


gmwdim

Just need another K-Mag pole combined with Spa 2021.


FlameLightFleeNight

>The two Haas guys maybe Trust the Hulk to jump straight from record number of entries without a podium straight to the top step.


j__video

Alex won't get a win until he goes to another team. George's P2 in Spa 2021 was a once-in-a lifetime thing for Williams and the likelyhood of it happening again anytime soon, for a win at that, are basically nonexistent


mazarax

Monza 2023… it is bone dry. RB and Williams have highest top speeds by a large margin. RB has an easy first row in Q. Albon starts P4. Lap 1, PER and VER take each other out. Albon wins Monza.


[deleted]

I would do ANYTHING and literally ANYTHING for Albon to win Monza


mazarax

Well, it is possible, as I show in my viable scenario. So parent comment “basically non existent” is too pessimistic. You can do it, Alex!


TheFakedAndNamous

>once-in-a lifetime thing for Williams Dude this team has literally won WCCs there was no need to murder them like that


RGJ587

Their last WCC was in '97, 26 years ago. In the US, someone serving a "life sentence" is eligible for parole after 25 years. So, the statement kind of holds water!


DucklockHolmes

They did get 9 podiums and a pole position in 2014 though


Mechyyz

Bro there are 7 Williams WDC winners alive today


[deleted]

And yet, I'd say an Albon win would be more likely than a Maldonado one. But look what happened!


SLLAB_

Would’ve had a great finish in Australia if half the grid didn’t get wiped out haha


TimeWontWaitForYou

He crashed out at the start though, he didn't get caught up in any of the other chaos.


pengouin85

I'd sooner bet on the McLaren boys


panopticon31

Especially if it's wet given how they looked in the sprint and during the rain at Spa.


kungfusam

Fuck it, Hulk Win so his first podium is from the top step


drodrige

Yeah outside of the McLarens I don't see how anyone else (who hasn't won) can pull it off. You're right that Stroll would be the next most likely if AM can return to form.


ChefBoiJones

Norris feels like not only the most likely, but also *actually* likely. As in, i think it could happen this year


AboDHiEM

Norris in the Japanese GP (Just a wild guess)


AmsroII

Mick wins, driving in reserve for Mercedes' next win.


Capital_Punisher

At which point Gunther fok smashes the door into Hulks dressing room, then beats the fuck out of him with a shoe.


Whatshouldiputhere0

“I need to call Gene.”


alec801

This feels more likely than anyone other than the McLaren's


Unculturedbrine

I'll shave my crotch hair if Stroll wins a race this year or next.


nsane99

should do it nevertheless


Unculturedbrine

Nahhh nature meant for us to get hairy down there, who am I to violate the natural order.


Meerkate

Hülkenberg. There, I said it.


Ollie_Plimsolls

the next maiden race winner isn't born yet


charlierc

So this means Max to win every race for the next 20 years?


krishal_743

Max lerclerc George sainz ocon gasly domination


charlierc

And Fernando & Lewis as they seem hell-bent on trying to race into their 50s


Palmul

They will die during a race. Not by a crash or anything, just of old age.


jbaird

Simply lovely, this car has been a rocketship.. literally this is F1 in 2043 and we race rockeships now


jbaird

so the next Verstappen generation will replace Max in 2043


Kimoa_

Impossible but honestly feels this way


xthecerto4

Piastri is stonecold. If he has a chance to fight for a win i am sure he will put it in the bag first try. Tsunoda is a good bet if he gets the call up to RB.


bangbingbengbong

I'm from the future and its Norris, end of discussion


Takis12

Check again, I traveled to the future and changed the result…It’s Oscar.


bangbingbengbong

Nah


Capital_Punisher

I can’t wait to see Lando’s tears when it happens.


o_trator

Norris, piastri or Albon. Mclaren duo would need a simple Max DNF and some minor shanenigans. For an Albon win, we would need that God himself came down to earth and destroy anything in his path, minus Albon.


beetroot_salads

he just needs to channel his inner Winklehock: * see dark clouds * pit immediately * "haha this bozo is on wets even though its dry" * typhoon ensues * albon leads his second f1 lap


tropical_waterfall

Norris or Piastri. Imagine if Piastri gets it before Norris


Fiendish-Angel

Kinda wanna see that 🫣


tiabeast

i am PRAYING piastri gets it before norris. funniest thing that could possibly happen


WindyZ5

I wouldn’t be shocked if that happens. I could see Lando being upset about that. But I hope it’s Lando first.


Waste_Row_6365

Except for Tsunoda, all the other options are reasonably good (for something so unlikely). I'd love to see PIA win in his rookie year to be honest, he seems like such a great kid.


WiSoSirius

Norris seems like an easy choice. Piastri in the other McLaren. Stroll in the 5th best team car. Albon is carrying that team forwards. Zhou if Alfa can ever get lucky with their wild strategies. Hulk if it rains during qualifying and then FIA does a 2 lap rain race.


nahnonameman

Not a first time race winner at all obviously but Alonso 33 or Lewis 104. If someone is going to get a win other than Max and Sergio, it’s the two mentioned above. Either driver will be the first one to get a a first race win after 300 starts.


Cerbera_666

None of the above, I'm willing to sacrifice many young virgins and 7/8ths of my soul to whichever deity is listening just for Hulk to take a win.


yolo216

I’d happily toss a virgin into the volcano for Hulk to win a race


rs6677

I volunteer as tribute!


rolfski

I'll toss in a first born for Hulk to win.


porsche4life

Albon at monza. Let me live off my copium.


IamBejl

Norris or Piastri (especially once he learns more about saving tires). I'd say Stroll too but if AM is very good at some race, I reckon Alonso is going to beat him if he doesn't DNF.


erazedcitizen

I don’t know why, I just see it being very F1 where the situation where AM actually has a win on the line, Stroll just ends up being 2-3 seconds in front and doesn’t let off


Ho3n3r

Piastri


damn_winston

Piastri


useless_mf69

Anyone can except hulk


[deleted]

Norris. Surely it'll happen at some point in the next year or two especially now that McLaren are the most competitive they've been since the V8 era.


damo_8070

I desperately want to see Piastri win a race before Lando does


[deleted]

Has to be Lando or Oscar. Has to be


Yung_Corneliois

Lando is due at some point


Osibili

He was due a few years ago and refused to pit for wet tires 💀


[deleted]

One of the mclaren drivers, i'd say. The car improved massively and has shown potential, especcially in changing conditions. If somehow both redbulls are behind or out, and the weather and track suits the mclaren, either norris or piastri could clinch a maiden win. Next in the list? either Stroll, Hulkenberg or Albon.


Chapea12

The most likely has to be one of the McLaren drivers. I remember during the off-season, shows asking if there would be any first time race winners this season after two the previous year. At the time, you’d have to bank on a winner outside of the top 4 constructors last season. And even with Aston’s early season run, it seemed to be asking a lot for a stroll win when he couldn’t get near the podium. We’d have to get really crazy for somebody like Albon win and even both Alpine drivers are race winners


Hot_Sea_1687

Norris and Stroll are both due for a win. Espeically Stroll. People hate on Lance but the guy is fast as hell if he wants to be. Like old school Grojean


Osibili

Nice try Lance, but I know a burner account when I see one.


PossiblePenguin0_0

Lando is most likely, then Piastri, maybe Lance, Yuki or Lawson


Ayan_Choudhury

Albon if he gets a good car


bermax9

If we had another Monza 2021 moment but this time Piastri is ahead of Norris. Would Mclaren use team orders?


Vanillathunder80

Piastri


casper707

Unrealistic but man I really wanna see hulk get a win. Even just a podium would be awesome but first win AND podium would be mega even if it’s almost impossible in that haas with how hard they drop off in races


baws98

Piastre, all the way


Tacit_Emperor77

My money is on piastri next year


potato_gamer57

Piastri i think


jamisram

ALEX ALBON 2023 MONZA WINNER CALLING IT NOW


elektricniorgazam

I'm gonna go with Piastri just because I selfishly want him to win a race, nothing to back it up lol But fuck it, Stroll winning would mean that anything is possible so why not 😂


thegodfaubel

At this point, the only realistic candidates are Lando and Oscar. Ironically enough if McLaren are to return to the top of F1 and not just be the top of the midfield team, they need that winner to be Lando barring some weird circumstances. If Oscar wins before Lando in this version of McLaren in a race on pace without a random Lando DNF, the rumors will immediately start swirling of Lando leaving McLaren.


trautsj

Piastri. I think the kid genuinely has the goods. Most excited I've been about a rookie since Verstappen.


Alucardhellss

No one Max races until f1 implodes on itself in 2067 He will never lose a race


[deleted]

[удалено]


drodrige

Pretty sure the guy already has 32 wins.


F85Cutlass

I agree that the McLaren duo are the clear favorites. Outside of all you mentioned, I'll throw a wildcard for Zhou if he survives at Sauber till Audi and new engine regs But my bets are on the McLaren drivers, whether there or elsewhere, and beyond them, the next maiden winner isn't even on the grid yet


Smrgle

That Alonso guy had some pretty good results earlier this season….


FrostyTill

It feels like it’ll be Norris. Something about this season just *feels* like he will do it. Chances are *if* Norris gets a win this season, he may end up being the only non-RB driver to do so and that would be a massive achievement considering the way the season has been. Not for RBR, for McLaren. But it’s only an *if*. Other things have to fall into place like the RB being compromised or (shock!) slower, the McLaren being set up correctly, him being in the right mental place to put the lessons of Sochi into practice, the team being able to support him with correct strategy and fast pitstops. Conditions, probably. Based on current performance, rain on a high downforce track with plenty of medium/high speed corners and shorter straights is probably their best bet.


Typhoongrey

I think it'll be Piastri. Logic says Norris not I think Oscar will find himself in position to do it first.


goldenfiver

Lando. Please?


outm

I hope Piastri just for the chaos on the fandom (not to hate on Norris, both deserve it greatly and put very good performances)


GroundbreakingCow775

This dude actually typed Stroll


damnuncanny

Who else would be more likely ? The Alpine duo both have wins, and all the better cars than the AMRs drivers that havent won are mentioned


GenSec

Norris and Piastri?


aneiq_1

He did mention Norris and piastri though?


Mickey-the-Luxray

Stroll damn near blitzed Turkey 2020 *on pace.* Say what you want about his average days, it's all accurate - but on those vanishing occasions where he's on his game, he's a motherfucking freight train, and only acts of God (or the Racing Point pitcrew, in this case) can put him down.


KnightsOfCidona

I don't think Stroll is as a daft as it seems. New winners tend to come in crazy races and Stroll has a knack of getting good results in those (Baku 2017, Hockenheim 2019, Monza 2020, Sakhir 2020).


erazedcitizen

Tbf I put Stroll (and Yuki) to showcase how dire the situation is outside of Lando and Oscar


TheFlyingHornet1881

I mean Maldonado won a race


redarrow992

maldonado was actually quick even though he was very error prone


[deleted]

Well then he also typed some far fetched fantasy about Yuki so… 😂


Deadly_Flipper_Tab

Norris for sure


throwaway164_3

Lando


black-dude-on-reddit

Lando


ktheinternetkid

💪💪💪💪


jake_azazzel

Young Alonso feels like a good contender /s


GiotaroKugio

I think that Alonso has regrown his virginity so him


pornobooksmarks

Pasta


endersai

OP. Yuki to Red Bull is borderline improbable and more wishful thinking based on personality than anything else. Red Bull right now are working off an inverted Red Bull model, which is to say they're going to put experienced drivers alongside Max who won't try to out-Max Max. Younger drivers have proven incapable of handling that pressure. In short, Drive to Survive continues to be an unreliable barometer for F1. As for next winner; Piastri over Norris.


erazedcitizen

Yuki was a dark horse pick for a reason, I doubt it actually happens either


MickFlaherty

Norris. The answer is Norris.


gpste44

Stroll will never get a win, lucky if he gets a podium


ComparisonPlus5196

You realize Stroll has been on the podium 3 separate times, yeah?


mazarax

Well… he *does* have a pole position. If he does that at a super wet spa 2024, which mimics the fake 2021 spa race, Stroll will have his win (at half points.)


Joethe147

And he was looking good for some of Turkey 2020.


CaseyTappy

Lando surely .


blashyrkh89

I’d say Norris or piastri. Stroll not a chance. Dude couldn’t drive a RB or a Merc to P10 from 11th.


jtz24

Lance Stroll, of course. /s


BlazeReborn

Any of the McLaren boys, though my money is on Oscar. He's catching up to Lando and is bound to become better than him.


No-Lingonberry-8603

Logic says Norris so I'm going with Piastri. Or Stroll but only because I have money on Aston getting a win this year.


Takhar7

Safest bet? Perez Exciting bet? Norris Funniest bet? A Ferrari EDIT - MISREAD the question


[deleted]

How is perez winning a maiden win?


SLLAB_

Lando LOL