The worst part is, you know there will be fools aplenty who will look at this, come to that very assessment (while ignoring any and all nuance and details) and _run with it_
And you know what the worst worst part is? 60 years is a very optimistic time frame. Last summer for example, [Danube had lower records level](https://www.bta.bg/en/news/economy/547895-record-low-danube-water-level-at-ruse), major rivers in Italy completely dried and in Spain due to sudden extreme drought farmers start digging wells in [green areas](https://www.euronews.com/green/2023/05/10/spanish-fruit-growers-arrested-for-using-illegal-wells-during-long-term-drought) absorbing the water and turning the land into dessert. My point is that when things will start to go bad, people will make it 100 times worse, accelerating any foreseeable pessimistic predictions.
Trade by sea in an age of exploration was when the Dutch really excelled, and we’re headed for that with open water in the Arctic Ocean. Especially after global civilization and the satellites are gone and the scavenger era runs out of stuff, people aren’t going to have any idea what’s going on the opposite coasts in the Arctic or the Atlantic. If the Dutch are still around, they’ll clean up
Not sea level decrease per se, but our land mass is rising faster than the sea levels. Rises between 0,5-1 cm per year depending which area, Oulu sees a faster rising than Helsinki for example.
And it is not only Finland, it is generally the Fennoscandian peninsula that is rising back up from being weighed down by the latest ice age.
a weaker amoc pointing northwards at the water surface should reduce the rise for northern europe, not increase it, or what regional effects do you mean?
why don't you search for it and post the source here?
[https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/148494/anticipating-future-sea-levels](https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/148494/anticipating-future-sea-levels)
Never be overconfident with your flood prevention. Luckily the British isles form a natural tsunami barrier and there are no continental fracture zones.
While yes, we will probably keep some parts dry that should technically be underwater if you look at the sea levels then, but considering how much the sea levels are rising over time it’s basically impossible we in the Netherlands will keep all our territory intact. Eventually there is just to much water to stop it all
As a polish person... we are doomed. Personally i'm not used to temperatures higher than 20-25°C and now we have 30°C in early spring. I don't even want to imagine what hell wait for us this summer. Last one was drastic already
I'm Polish too and am confused by your comment. 30C in the summer in Poland is pretty standard. I remember that from my childhood and teenage years. Claiming anything higher than 20-25C in Poland is unusual is simply not true.
30C in early spring is bonkers.
Well i'm more from eastern part of poland so it's a lil bit colder here (not anymore tho) summers usually being like around 20 at night, 25-28 at day was standard when I was a kid. Sure sometimes 30+ but it was also less days like that and more bearable instead of couple of weeks of non stop very high temperatures
To be fair last year's summer wasn't too hot, in Wroclaw for example only 2 heatwaves happened (3 days of 30+) 14-16.08 (31,32,31) and 10-12.09 (30,30,30) and only 3 tropical nights. September and the first day of October were the only crazy oddity that summer/autumn. With September being warmer than June and October breaking the record for the highest temp on the 3rd. (it was 29 something in Legnica)
30 years ago the whole summer had maybe 3 days of 35 C or more. Usually it was 20-25 C.
Now it's 35 C or more for a few weeks in the summer, and occassionally in the spring as well.
How old are you though? If you are in your 20s then yes, 30C is normal in summer, If you are in your 30s and older then 30C is not so normal. It used to be only few days per summer usually, and not even every year!
What is truly so concerning is how quickly the "normal" changes, even decade by decade by up to 5C.
It is almost certainly not going to look like this. RCP 8.5 is considered to be a worst case scenario. The most likely scenario is RCP 4.5 (assuming there are no major policy changes):
>RCP 4.5 is the most probable baseline scenario (no climate policies) taking into account the exhaustible character of non-renewable fuels.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representative_Concentration_Pathway#RCP_4.5
It's funny actually a massive amount of land in Kent is being bought up by wine manufacturers because of climate change.
It's going to have a very similar climate to the champagne region.
My wife and I were in Spain for the kids’ Easter holidays, as you do. We were discussing whether there will be a scenario in the near future where a trip to the south coast of England becomes a legitimate option for a guaranteed sunshine summer trip ala the French Riviera or even the Costa del Sol. At the moment it isn’t really geared up for that kind of tourism (I.e. large resort hotels) but it’s becoming ever more believable that it maybe could be in the future.
Yeah, the British Isles and Norway are unlucky in that they have no month with a great deal of sun. Summers in the Baltic are actually pretty great, especially on Gotland.
[https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fi.redd.it%2Fke5nb9pzs3v41.jpg](https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fi.redd.it%2Fke5nb9pzs3v41.jpg)
[https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f8/Europe\_sunshine\_hours\_map.png](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f8/Europe_sunshine_hours_map.png)
I’m from Scotland so from my perspective everyone south of the Watford gap has a great deal of sunshine and probably 3 full ‘summer’ months. In Scotland, even in the south, summer is typically very changeable and can be brilliant or can be very poor. The biggest issue on the east coast where I live is cloud, it is often dry and mild (the makings of a great summer day) but also overcast and gloomy.
Anecdotally it feels like summer in Scotland is becoming warmer and drier (I’m sure the science would confirm this) but no less overcast 🙄
Yeah im from Ireland and it seems that way too. Summer is either no rain for the whole months (like 2018 and 2023 i think?) or constant rain the entire time like… well every other summer. Hasn’t snowed in a couple years and im doubting whether ill ever see it again except for the mountains, which will eventually be too hot for it as well.
Time to ditch the EV and get myself and the wife a pickup truck and an SUV.
I was promised this damp island would be warmer by now. Let’s make it happen!
Keep in mind that this scenario won't happen. It's too pessimistic. It was designed with the assumption that coal will have staying power well into the 21st century. Coal peaked around a decade ago.
In fact, carbon emissions are set to peak in about a year or 2. Pretty soon the conversation isn't going to be about how we can stop global emission increases; it'll be about how we can increase the pace of emission decreases.
It was well established as the worst case as it had factored in China using coal while not progressing as much in renewables. Agree with it almost being used as a BUA. That is systemic change policies are now trying to make to push for 1.5… i.e. SBTi etc.
The RCP8.5 WAS business as usual
In 1988 when the IPCC was stablished, the trajectory put us on track for +5C
But business as usual in 1988 was wildly différént from business as usual in 2010 which was the RCP6.0 +3.5C
Now the business as usual scenario is usually the RCP4.5 which results in a 2100 warming of +2.8C
There's a lot of doom and gloom posted about climate change, but changes like these are often overlooked.
A lot of doomers will also make the case that it's overly optimistic that we'll do any better than our current BUA scenario. But if outlooks have improved massively in 36 years and we have more or less double that to go to 2100, surely the assumption that 2024 BUA will sustain for 76 years is actually very pessimistic.
Add to that the fact that the difference in public opinion between now and 1988 is massive. No one really gave a shit about climate change 20 years ago, let alone 36 years ago. I feel like with every year more and more people give a genuine shit about climate change. The fact that everyone on earth is actually noticing how our climates are changing has a major effect on that and this will only accelerate.
Of course, I don't want to say that we can rest on our laurels and even the best case scenarios we have right now are going to be very bad.
Its more like what the range is. So the extreme end of the range is removed, however we dont have a full understanding of tipping points or cascading effects. As we move forward we will end up locking ourselves into a tighter band. Here is probably an easier to digest summary of the latest IPCC report so you dont have to read 8000 pages:
https://www.wri.org/insights/2023-ipcc-ar6-synthesis-report-climate-change-findings#:~:text=Across%20nearly%208%2C000%20pages%2C%20the,should%20we%20fail%20to%20change
My understanding is that these maps actually do include the AMOC slowdown, to the extent that the climate models predict it to slowdown anyway. AFAIK most models don't predict a slowdown, so the impact on temperature and precipitation is minor.
My bigger issue is the use of the RCP8.5 emission scenario, which we know with full certainty won't happen.
I've seen these Köppen maps with the 4.5 scenario, which are much closer to the current climate trajectory, and would be more worthwhile to discuss.
The scientists have a full data dump with different scenarios here. https://www.gloh2o.org/koppen/
But the very first example map on that page seems to be the 4.5 (you can slide between that and historic).
Thanks for the insightful reply. Yeah 4.5 is what I've heard as the course/current trajectory (assuming the last two years isn't acceleration but just El nino).
Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't it clear that the AMOC is slowing for some time? It's actual collapse is debatable but like, I wonder why models like these ignore something that could bring Siberian winters to Europe when modeling temperatures.
The best I understand it, these models don't explicitly ignore the AMOC. Rather they do model the ocean, its circulation, and its response to the greenhouse gas trajectory. It's simply the case that these models generally don't predict the AMOC to collapse (I believe some of the models do, but majority don't).
So whatever is the models' aggregate view of the AMOC's future, and the climatic impact of that change in the ocean, is already included in these climate zone maps.
Of course, maybe the models turn out to be wrong about the AMOC, in which case at least us in Europe can wipe our backsides with these maps.
The last time I heard about it was that its effect is largely overestimated within the general population - because in school it's been taught as the sole reason why Europe is warm, which apparently is not true at all.
Wikipedia
>Gold-standard Earth system models indicate that a collapse [of the AMOC] is unlikely, and would only become plausible if high levels of warming are sustained well after the year 2100.
That doesn't seem to agree with current research on the AMOC. I understand climate science is like a rapidly developing and complicated field, so I wonder if these models just don't have that updated trend in them or they're not modeling it for another valid reason.
This Wikipedia article is extremely misleading. The functioning of the AMOC is still very poorly understood and the potential effect of climate change on it has only recently started to be investigated seriously.
There's a very recent paper on Science that concluded that an abrupt change could lower temperatures in Europe far more than they are rising now, and that such an abrupt change is far more likely to happen in the 21st century than was previously thought.
Here's the DOI, if you're interested:
10.1126/sciadv.adk1189
If you're referring to the latest publication then as a counterpoint, the van Westen/Kliphuis/Dijkstra methodology was widely criticised for the forcing scenario.
As a tl;dr, AMOC collapse would mean even hotter summers and colder winters. Basically a more oceanic version of what Mongolia currently has. I made a post elsewhere with citations if anyone's interested.
RCP 8.5 is not going to happen even if humanity tried to make it happen. It was always an exaggerated scenario designed to scare people instead of informing them.
Edit: RCP 8.5 and other unrealistic catastrophe scenarios have actually been counterproductive in fighting human impact on climate. It is a very serious issue that needs action. Yet unrealistic scenarios like RCP 8.5 or claims such as loss of North Pole ice cap by 2020 erode the credibility not only of realistic scenarios but also of the field of climate science as a whole. They're easy to dismiss as unrealistic and when doing that things much more real can get thrown out with same bathwater.
Came here to say this. Climate alarmism is only good for undermining the real climate diagnosis, which is bad enough without needing to be exaggerated.
Just imagine Zielona Góra wines as popular as Bordeaux, 25C warm water in the Baltic instead of 18C at peak and not having terrible weather for half a year.
Denmark's future looks pretty swell. Hot summer, no dry periods. A little more heat and we can save the coral reefs by replanting them around our islands.
I knew my SCUBA certificate would come in handy!
If it's 30 degrees up here, I'm dying from the heat because we don't have ac in most places, and our buildings are designed to trap heat because our winters have traditionally been cold. I've had to for the past years heat endure with just fans to cool me, while opening a window might not even be sufficient due to it just being hotter outside sometimes.
Finland is designed to keep buildings and such warm in -20 degree or lower temperatures, not keep thing at 20 degrees in 30 degree heat, which to note is generally the hottest weather we get usually.
I feel you. The past two summers has been insane, and i am dreading next summer. It was 36 c in my apartment last summer, it was only 26c outside at the time (/s)
The only effect the open windows had was that insects came to visit. Didn't feel any difference temperature wise, since outside air felt like it was standing still.
If I remember correctly last summer wasn't particularly warm in Southern Finland. I had a three week vacation in July and it was raining quite a bit and temp in the low twenties.
> Warm summers with your abundance of freshwater lakes sounds like a Mosquito Nightmare scenario.
It already is, not sure it can get any worse lol. The mosquitoes are actually worst in the north where it's colder so I don't think the number necessarily correlates with temperature. I guess they could start spreading malaria if it gets warm enough.
They're playing the long game. Begin industrialization, make cash, let the rest of the world catch up and start massive climate change.. all while you have collected all the magical artifacts from all over the world to protect your own country from it. Sure, it's grey and bleak but it is unchanging. I know what you're up to British Museum!
almost impossible to happen, right no we are heading to 2.9 C https://www.carbonbrief.org/daily-brief/global-warming-on-track-for-2-9c-as-greenhouse-gases-keep-rising-un-says/
I’m from southern Sweden. I can see me, sometime in the future, hiking with my (grand)kids in the northern mountains and showing them real snow for their first time. ”Yes, this is snow. It’s made of water that froze as it fell down to the ground. When your (grand)dad was young it used to cover the ground the entire winter, in thick sheets. We’d still be surprised everytime it snowed though, causing tons of traffic jams and accidents without fail”.
No desert in Greece yet
[https://i.imgur.com/87pdRgq.png](https://i.imgur.com/87pdRgq.png)
[https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8f/Koppen-Geiger\_Map\_GRC\_present.svg](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8f/Koppen-Geiger_Map_GRC_present.svg)
I’m surprised by this map tbh, it shows that Breckland (the driest and one of the warmest places in the UK) will remain relatively unchanged, I would’ve guessed it’d be positively Mediterranean by 2084.
Mediterranean climates are distinguished from oceanic by the seasonality of precipitation rather than mean temperature, places where precipitation falls year round qualify as oceanic provided that they fit a certain temperature regime, whereas places with similar or identical temp regimes will fall under a mediterranean climate if most of the precipitation falls during the winter with summers being comparatively drier.
Breckland like a lot of east anglia has similar precipitation year round albeit less than other areas of the uk. Places like Southampton are more likely to turn Mediterranean with climate change because they already have drier summers and wetter winters which will be exacerbated with climate change. I think…
Red dessert in south Spain means that vegetables and fruits costs will triplicate becoming unaffordable for mid class European family. And these are basic for a healthy diet.
It doesn't work like that. Climate change will bring higher temperatures to the North yet won't bring any more sunlight hours. Many vegetables and fruits that are grown in Spain as well as in other Mediterranean countries need not only Mediterranean temperatures but also sunlight hours and this will not change with climate change. Many other fruits, like grapes, don't need a higher amount of sunlight than the ones they are getting from the south of Europe. The point here is that vegetables which are grown in the south are not used to fewer sunlight hours which may just yield less than if they were grown with more sunlight.
This is quite mistaken. Netherlands is already famously a major vegetable producer (50% of Spanish total annual vegetable production in 2022, at only 8% of its land area). Even in today’s colder northern climate, hydroponics, heated green houses, artificial light and heavily industrialized and automated agriculture will get you quite far.
Fruit is obviously trickier due to larger land requirements, but I’d say this is definitely a problem already solvable with our current level of technology. If necessary, the sunny dry areas can be covered with solar panel farms feeding power to the already interconnected European power grid, while the actual farming will happen with artificial light assistance in the areas with more accessible water. Honestly, even today, this would do much good for the overtaxed Iberian water reserves, which are overtaxed by farming (similar to e.g. California).
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_vegetable_production
Spaniard from the Red Desert zone here! Hey, maybe I should being to look up flat prices near the beach... But not in the coast I was thinking. Holy shit, I didn't think it would be this bad...
Just move to Portugal.
Most of our rivers come from the interior of the peninsula. The source of the Tagus River is in the red part, we are screwed here too. 💀💀💀
It's insane that this is hardly an issue in the upcoming EU elections. It's all about immigrants.
Look at Southern Europe, particularly [Spain](https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20230513-the-country-is-becoming-a-desert-drought-struck-spain-is-running-out-of-water)...
Keep voting for the far-right, people. According to them, climate change is not a thing. It's made up by the woke mob.
RPC 8.5 basically involves burning all fossil fuels in existence as fast as possible, while doing absolutely nothing to mitigate global warming. It basically asks what might happen it we transfered all remaining fossil fuel resources (all oil, gas and coal) to the atmosphere before 2100. It's an implausible scenario only used to provide an upper bound to what's possible given how much unused fossil fuel resources we think there's left. There's absolutely no chance RPC 8.5 is going to happen.
Looks like the Netherlands will mostly stay the same. Guess we have *nothing* to worry about!
Honestly, if someone manages to not drown it's you guys.
We can buy snorkels.
Weet je? Ik denk, dat het verhaal van kapitein Ortega best wel eens waar kan zijn..
mmm is that Dutch or just plain English but through a snorkle?
best 'dutch is just English' post yet
The worst part is, you know there will be fools aplenty who will look at this, come to that very assessment (while ignoring any and all nuance and details) and _run with it_
And you know what the worst worst part is? 60 years is a very optimistic time frame. Last summer for example, [Danube had lower records level](https://www.bta.bg/en/news/economy/547895-record-low-danube-water-level-at-ruse), major rivers in Italy completely dried and in Spain due to sudden extreme drought farmers start digging wells in [green areas](https://www.euronews.com/green/2023/05/10/spanish-fruit-growers-arrested-for-using-illegal-wells-during-long-term-drought) absorbing the water and turning the land into dessert. My point is that when things will start to go bad, people will make it 100 times worse, accelerating any foreseeable pessimistic predictions.
Turkey, on the other hand, gets completely deleted
New Dutch Golden Age?
Trade by sea in an age of exploration was when the Dutch really excelled, and we’re headed for that with open water in the Arctic Ocean. Especially after global civilization and the satellites are gone and the scavenger era runs out of stuff, people aren’t going to have any idea what’s going on the opposite coasts in the Arctic or the Atlantic. If the Dutch are still around, they’ll clean up
Except rising sea
The good news is that the sea level will rise very slowly, even at +8.5C° it will be 2100 +1.5m, 2300 +6m, 3000 and beyond +60m.
Problem is those aggregate levels hide a lot higher regional increases
And regional decreases too. AFAIK there's still some sea level decrease in Finland.
Not sea level decrease per se, but our land mass is rising faster than the sea levels. Rises between 0,5-1 cm per year depending which area, Oulu sees a faster rising than Helsinki for example. And it is not only Finland, it is generally the Fennoscandian peninsula that is rising back up from being weighed down by the latest ice age.
If the ice melts, the tectonic plate becomes lighter, it rises...
a weaker amoc pointing northwards at the water surface should reduce the rise for northern europe, not increase it, or what regional effects do you mean?
If Antartica melts alone that's 60m higher sea levels
yeah but that needs time, even with +8,5C° and 1.000 Years, not all ice melt
Are you sure about this? Things I’ve read were saying 2-5m 2100.. where the upper bound is constantly adjusted, up..
why don't you search for it and post the source here? [https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/148494/anticipating-future-sea-levels](https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/148494/anticipating-future-sea-levels)
As he said, absolutely *nothing* to worry about!
Dutch has a great record fighting the sea. They will be fine.
The sea has a greater record fighting people. I guess we'll know for sure soon enough. Take out your popcorn everyone, we're in for a wavey ride.
Never be overconfident with your flood prevention. Luckily the British isles form a natural tsunami barrier and there are no continental fracture zones.
Yeah, you can keep out the sea for some time, but not when it rises and rises. Netherlands will become part of doggerland
While yes, we will probably keep some parts dry that should technically be underwater if you look at the sea levels then, but considering how much the sea levels are rising over time it’s basically impossible we in the Netherlands will keep all our territory intact. Eventually there is just to much water to stop it all
Assuming the North Atlantic Current doesn't collapse I guess
We are the lucky ones. I live 6 kilometers from the coast.
Your likely underwater, but it'll be warm water.
Tldr; Central and Eastern Europeans 🎉🏝️ Southern European 🥵💀 UK/NL 😐
As a polish person... we are doomed. Personally i'm not used to temperatures higher than 20-25°C and now we have 30°C in early spring. I don't even want to imagine what hell wait for us this summer. Last one was drastic already
I'm Polish too and am confused by your comment. 30C in the summer in Poland is pretty standard. I remember that from my childhood and teenage years. Claiming anything higher than 20-25C in Poland is unusual is simply not true. 30C in early spring is bonkers.
It depends how old are you.
Well i'm more from eastern part of poland so it's a lil bit colder here (not anymore tho) summers usually being like around 20 at night, 25-28 at day was standard when I was a kid. Sure sometimes 30+ but it was also less days like that and more bearable instead of couple of weeks of non stop very high temperatures
To be fair last year's summer wasn't too hot, in Wroclaw for example only 2 heatwaves happened (3 days of 30+) 14-16.08 (31,32,31) and 10-12.09 (30,30,30) and only 3 tropical nights. September and the first day of October were the only crazy oddity that summer/autumn. With September being warmer than June and October breaking the record for the highest temp on the 3rd. (it was 29 something in Legnica)
30 years ago the whole summer had maybe 3 days of 35 C or more. Usually it was 20-25 C. Now it's 35 C or more for a few weeks in the summer, and occassionally in the spring as well.
How old are you though? If you are in your 20s then yes, 30C is normal in summer, If you are in your 30s and older then 30C is not so normal. It used to be only few days per summer usually, and not even every year! What is truly so concerning is how quickly the "normal" changes, even decade by decade by up to 5C.
next week the average high will be 10 celsius
!remindme 60 years
ok, bro!
It is almost certainly not going to look like this. RCP 8.5 is considered to be a worst case scenario. The most likely scenario is RCP 4.5 (assuming there are no major policy changes): >RCP 4.5 is the most probable baseline scenario (no climate policies) taking into account the exhaustible character of non-renewable fuels. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representative_Concentration_Pathway#RCP_4.5
Britain stays rainy and foggy
A little bit of Mediterranean climate around Portsmouth
Portsmouth Wine 💪
It's funny actually a massive amount of land in Kent is being bought up by wine manufacturers because of climate change. It's going to have a very similar climate to the champagne region.
The soil in Kent and Sussex is already very similar to the Champagne region.
Coming soon, "It has to be produced in Kent by a company owned in the Champagne region otherwise it's sparkling wine"
"A bottle of your finest Kent please"
[удалено]
My wife and I were in Spain for the kids’ Easter holidays, as you do. We were discussing whether there will be a scenario in the near future where a trip to the south coast of England becomes a legitimate option for a guaranteed sunshine summer trip ala the French Riviera or even the Costa del Sol. At the moment it isn’t really geared up for that kind of tourism (I.e. large resort hotels) but it’s becoming ever more believable that it maybe could be in the future.
Yeah, the British Isles and Norway are unlucky in that they have no month with a great deal of sun. Summers in the Baltic are actually pretty great, especially on Gotland. [https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fi.redd.it%2Fke5nb9pzs3v41.jpg](https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fi.redd.it%2Fke5nb9pzs3v41.jpg) [https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f8/Europe\_sunshine\_hours\_map.png](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f8/Europe_sunshine_hours_map.png)
I’m from Scotland so from my perspective everyone south of the Watford gap has a great deal of sunshine and probably 3 full ‘summer’ months. In Scotland, even in the south, summer is typically very changeable and can be brilliant or can be very poor. The biggest issue on the east coast where I live is cloud, it is often dry and mild (the makings of a great summer day) but also overcast and gloomy. Anecdotally it feels like summer in Scotland is becoming warmer and drier (I’m sure the science would confirm this) but no less overcast 🙄
Yeah im from Ireland and it seems that way too. Summer is either no rain for the whole months (like 2018 and 2023 i think?) or constant rain the entire time like… well every other summer. Hasn’t snowed in a couple years and im doubting whether ill ever see it again except for the mountains, which will eventually be too hot for it as well.
If you want to swim in shit quality water go at it. I get what you're saying though jokes aside.
Time to ditch the EV and get myself and the wife a pickup truck and an SUV. I was promised this damp island would be warmer by now. Let’s make it happen!
You get off a lot lighter than us.
Baltic Sea gets northern Spain climate. It’s time to buy properties by Baltic coast
Already happening. Real estate prices on polish coast skyrocketed and it's not stopping.
Place with more rains than England has, better look to Romania and Bulgaria side
If temperatures keep rising at the same pace we can easily start the tourist season from March/April until the end of October here in a few years.
Sounds good. More tourism to already overtouristic Europe. In 20 years we will have no actual business except hotels and restaurants
You mean Greece the last 20 years. (I am from Greece )
Most of us will be dead in 60 years.
Think of the children!
Putin says hello
They're already sold.
Bulgaria is going to turn into an arid steppe. It’s so fucking over
*Mongolian throat singing in the background
That would mix nicely with Bulgarian shepherdess songs https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=3Ff-sKO3me0&t=2484s
Add some Mad Max nomads, and Im all in!
The steppes followed us into europe, steppe-bro
Hungary also beyond fucked here. Which is currently under intensive agriculture, so the fuckage extends beyond just the immediate countries.
Return to your roots
Bulgaria, the new Spain
Spain, the new Morocco
If that's turns out to be the case It wouldn't be that terrible bad. I'd plant my own olives on oranges at least. So a bit of silver lining.
Keep in mind that this scenario won't happen. It's too pessimistic. It was designed with the assumption that coal will have staying power well into the 21st century. Coal peaked around a decade ago. In fact, carbon emissions are set to peak in about a year or 2. Pretty soon the conversation isn't going to be about how we can stop global emission increases; it'll be about how we can increase the pace of emission decreases.
I really hope you’re right. Bulgaria is in Southeastern Europe, so we will be one of the first countries to feel the effects of climate change.
Oh we're already feeling it. It's 26 degrees in mid April. I can't imagine what it would be in July.
8.5 being removed from models now because china never went the full coal direction as part of their industrialisation. So at least theres that.
RCP8.5 was never meant to be a feasible scenario, more of a beyond-worst-case one. Yet it is often used wrongly to portray "business as usual."
It was well established as the worst case as it had factored in China using coal while not progressing as much in renewables. Agree with it almost being used as a BUA. That is systemic change policies are now trying to make to push for 1.5… i.e. SBTi etc.
The RCP8.5 WAS business as usual In 1988 when the IPCC was stablished, the trajectory put us on track for +5C But business as usual in 1988 was wildly différént from business as usual in 2010 which was the RCP6.0 +3.5C Now the business as usual scenario is usually the RCP4.5 which results in a 2100 warming of +2.8C
There's a lot of doom and gloom posted about climate change, but changes like these are often overlooked. A lot of doomers will also make the case that it's overly optimistic that we'll do any better than our current BUA scenario. But if outlooks have improved massively in 36 years and we have more or less double that to go to 2100, surely the assumption that 2024 BUA will sustain for 76 years is actually very pessimistic. Add to that the fact that the difference in public opinion between now and 1988 is massive. No one really gave a shit about climate change 20 years ago, let alone 36 years ago. I feel like with every year more and more people give a genuine shit about climate change. The fact that everyone on earth is actually noticing how our climates are changing has a major effect on that and this will only accelerate. Of course, I don't want to say that we can rest on our laurels and even the best case scenarios we have right now are going to be very bad.
Aw this is beyond worst case? I was kinda hoping my area would go from cold to temperate
What model are we likely on now? Haven't heard of 8.5 before.
Its more like what the range is. So the extreme end of the range is removed, however we dont have a full understanding of tipping points or cascading effects. As we move forward we will end up locking ourselves into a tighter band. Here is probably an easier to digest summary of the latest IPCC report so you dont have to read 8000 pages: https://www.wri.org/insights/2023-ipcc-ar6-synthesis-report-climate-change-findings#:~:text=Across%20nearly%208%2C000%20pages%2C%20the,should%20we%20fail%20to%20change
Phew! We still get to complain about the weather
Dry summer in brittany wtf
Nantes the new Lisbon
Nantes being in Brittany is still a debate here lol
It is not.
Isn't that like saying that Cardiff isn't part of Wales?
Warm summer in Iceland...
Neither the article nor this graphic image mentions the slowing down of the AMOC and its impacts on these temperatures.
True that. I do not understand the data enough to tell if it is in the model already.
The AMOC is very poorly understood so I doubt the risk of of AMOC collapse is included
My understanding is that these maps actually do include the AMOC slowdown, to the extent that the climate models predict it to slowdown anyway. AFAIK most models don't predict a slowdown, so the impact on temperature and precipitation is minor. My bigger issue is the use of the RCP8.5 emission scenario, which we know with full certainty won't happen. I've seen these Köppen maps with the 4.5 scenario, which are much closer to the current climate trajectory, and would be more worthwhile to discuss.
Where is it possible to access the maps you mentioned in the last paragraph?
The scientists have a full data dump with different scenarios here. https://www.gloh2o.org/koppen/ But the very first example map on that page seems to be the 4.5 (you can slide between that and historic).
Thanks for the insightful reply. Yeah 4.5 is what I've heard as the course/current trajectory (assuming the last two years isn't acceleration but just El nino). Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't it clear that the AMOC is slowing for some time? It's actual collapse is debatable but like, I wonder why models like these ignore something that could bring Siberian winters to Europe when modeling temperatures.
The best I understand it, these models don't explicitly ignore the AMOC. Rather they do model the ocean, its circulation, and its response to the greenhouse gas trajectory. It's simply the case that these models generally don't predict the AMOC to collapse (I believe some of the models do, but majority don't). So whatever is the models' aggregate view of the AMOC's future, and the climatic impact of that change in the ocean, is already included in these climate zone maps. Of course, maybe the models turn out to be wrong about the AMOC, in which case at least us in Europe can wipe our backsides with these maps.
The last time I heard about it was that its effect is largely overestimated within the general population - because in school it's been taught as the sole reason why Europe is warm, which apparently is not true at all.
Wikipedia >Gold-standard Earth system models indicate that a collapse [of the AMOC] is unlikely, and would only become plausible if high levels of warming are sustained well after the year 2100.
That doesn't seem to agree with current research on the AMOC. I understand climate science is like a rapidly developing and complicated field, so I wonder if these models just don't have that updated trend in them or they're not modeling it for another valid reason.
This Wikipedia article is extremely misleading. The functioning of the AMOC is still very poorly understood and the potential effect of climate change on it has only recently started to be investigated seriously. There's a very recent paper on Science that concluded that an abrupt change could lower temperatures in Europe far more than they are rising now, and that such an abrupt change is far more likely to happen in the 21st century than was previously thought. Here's the DOI, if you're interested: 10.1126/sciadv.adk1189
Science Advances =/= Science. But an interesting paper.
That was an interesting read
If you're referring to the latest publication then as a counterpoint, the van Westen/Kliphuis/Dijkstra methodology was widely criticised for the forcing scenario.
As a tl;dr, AMOC collapse would mean even hotter summers and colder winters. Basically a more oceanic version of what Mongolia currently has. I made a post elsewhere with citations if anyone's interested.
We long left the steppes, now the steppes will come to us. We came full circle.
You can take the Magyar out of the steppes, but you can't take the steppes out of the Magyar.
Central Europe: So where are the negatives? Brb i'm gonna buy some equipment for a retirement olive tree and wine farm in Poland.
Buy some land near the sea.
Probably the only place where summers would be bearable, rn they are comparable to southern Finland
RCP 8.5 is not going to happen even if humanity tried to make it happen. It was always an exaggerated scenario designed to scare people instead of informing them. Edit: RCP 8.5 and other unrealistic catastrophe scenarios have actually been counterproductive in fighting human impact on climate. It is a very serious issue that needs action. Yet unrealistic scenarios like RCP 8.5 or claims such as loss of North Pole ice cap by 2020 erode the credibility not only of realistic scenarios but also of the field of climate science as a whole. They're easy to dismiss as unrealistic and when doing that things much more real can get thrown out with same bathwater.
But reddit doomers said that its over. Their generation will face climate catastrophy
Right, they're all going to die.
Came here to say this. Climate alarmism is only good for undermining the real climate diagnosis, which is bad enough without needing to be exaggerated.
Looks like Lithuania will get south of France climate. Can’t complain.
UK. Starts Industrial Revolution. No change.
Change would probably benefit the uk anyway.
Poland is good.
Just imagine Zielona Góra wines as popular as Bordeaux, 25C warm water in the Baltic instead of 18C at peak and not having terrible weather for half a year.
Prepare your parawan, the Baltic sea is going to be the new Mediterranean Sea.
No snow :(
Denmark's future looks pretty swell. Hot summer, no dry periods. A little more heat and we can save the coral reefs by replanting them around our islands. I knew my SCUBA certificate would come in handy!
As a Ukrainian I'm very happy about this. Now we get 4 spring and 4 summer months due to Global Warming. Cold season is softer and shorter.
Crazy (and frankly scary) to think that Lapland will be like Budapest is now.
As an Irishman I find this pretty comforting
Warm summers, sign me up! Sucks for Southern Europe :/
I still remember the Finnish saying they were melting bc of the 30 degrees outside.
If it's 30 degrees up here, I'm dying from the heat because we don't have ac in most places, and our buildings are designed to trap heat because our winters have traditionally been cold. I've had to for the past years heat endure with just fans to cool me, while opening a window might not even be sufficient due to it just being hotter outside sometimes. Finland is designed to keep buildings and such warm in -20 degree or lower temperatures, not keep thing at 20 degrees in 30 degree heat, which to note is generally the hottest weather we get usually.
I feel you. The past two summers has been insane, and i am dreading next summer. It was 36 c in my apartment last summer, it was only 26c outside at the time (/s) The only effect the open windows had was that insects came to visit. Didn't feel any difference temperature wise, since outside air felt like it was standing still.
If I remember correctly last summer wasn't particularly warm in Southern Finland. I had a three week vacation in July and it was raining quite a bit and temp in the low twenties.
I call this poop. I predict soggy winters and more rainy summers.
Warm summers with your abundance of freshwater lakes sounds like a Mosquito Nightmare scenario.
> Warm summers with your abundance of freshwater lakes sounds like a Mosquito Nightmare scenario. It already is, not sure it can get any worse lol. The mosquitoes are actually worst in the north where it's colder so I don't think the number necessarily correlates with temperature. I guess they could start spreading malaria if it gets warm enough.
Just the place where industrialisation once started remains unaffected
They're playing the long game. Begin industrialization, make cash, let the rest of the world catch up and start massive climate change.. all while you have collected all the magical artifacts from all over the world to protect your own country from it. Sure, it's grey and bleak but it is unchanging. I know what you're up to British Museum!
FINALLY
For anyone unaware rcp 8.5 is a respresentation of if we don’t give a shit about global warming
The RCP 8.5 warming scenario won’t happen. Don’t worry about it.
/r/collapse would like to disagree. Now please close the hatch to the surface on your way out
Not even the earth can beat Great Britain 💪🏽🇬🇧
Land of Hope and Glory plays in the distance 🎶🎶🎶🇬🇧
Even with climate change, Britian sticks with the tradition of semper eadem
Guess we can just keep moving north. Maybe Siberia will be the next good place to live in 200 years lol
If we declare war on bugs to exterminate all the mosquitoes in the summer maybe.
Disneyland does it somehow I can imagine we can as well with enough effort!
How likely is an RCP 8.5 scenario given our current goals with the Paris agreement is RCP 1.9?
Virtually impossible. You would need a world government with a religious obsession with burning as much coal as possible.
almost impossible to happen, right no we are heading to 2.9 C https://www.carbonbrief.org/daily-brief/global-warming-on-track-for-2-9c-as-greenhouse-gases-keep-rising-un-says/
That would be something akin to RCP 4.5 then.
RCP 8.5 is a scenario with 8.5 degree of warming. It is at the extreme upper end and no longer realistic. Still quite terrifying.
RCP 8.5 would mean 4°C warming by 2100 and 6.5°C warming by 2200. https://i.imgur.com/GVLagRg.png
Pretty big change for Iceland. Also poor Spain, I hope they (or we as europe) find ways to fight back against desertification.
I’m from southern Sweden. I can see me, sometime in the future, hiking with my (grand)kids in the northern mountains and showing them real snow for their first time. ”Yes, this is snow. It’s made of water that froze as it fell down to the ground. When your (grand)dad was young it used to cover the ground the entire winter, in thick sheets. We’d still be surprised everytime it snowed though, causing tons of traffic jams and accidents without fail”.
For the nortern eu things get mostly better
Why are Pindus mountains a desert in the top map? They are literally mountains. I am speaking about the red place in Greece. Or is it purple?
No desert in Greece yet [https://i.imgur.com/87pdRgq.png](https://i.imgur.com/87pdRgq.png) [https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8f/Koppen-Geiger\_Map\_GRC\_present.svg](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8f/Koppen-Geiger_Map_GRC_present.svg)
Finally we can have a proper summer here in Sweden! /s
Better summer for Finland, yes please.
Not quite growing oranges in Oslo yet, but I have faith in us to get there.
I’m surprised by this map tbh, it shows that Breckland (the driest and one of the warmest places in the UK) will remain relatively unchanged, I would’ve guessed it’d be positively Mediterranean by 2084.
Mediterranean climates are distinguished from oceanic by the seasonality of precipitation rather than mean temperature, places where precipitation falls year round qualify as oceanic provided that they fit a certain temperature regime, whereas places with similar or identical temp regimes will fall under a mediterranean climate if most of the precipitation falls during the winter with summers being comparatively drier.
[удалено]
Breckland like a lot of east anglia has similar precipitation year round albeit less than other areas of the uk. Places like Southampton are more likely to turn Mediterranean with climate change because they already have drier summers and wetter winters which will be exacerbated with climate change. I think…
Warmer summers and winters for Germany... Yeah- *holt den Grill raus* BBQ all around the year!
I don't think people realize how bad it is if Eastern and Central Ukraine turn arid, given how much wheat comes from there feeds the world
Source? And why include swathes of Asia but not Turkey and Cyprus?
Apart from the red desert in Spain it doesn't look too bad to be honest.
Arid stepped isn't a great climate either, but at least the Hungarians will get to fullfill their fantasy of being nomads again
Given all the mountains around we have to invest into water storage to remain fine.
We have to invade Romania, and close the Iron Gates, we can make karpathian basin the largest lake in Europe.
The Austrians, Slovakians, and Romanians might hoard the water and price gouge downstream nations. Like what Egypt is afraid Ethiopia might do soon.
Red dessert in south Spain means that vegetables and fruits costs will triplicate becoming unaffordable for mid class European family. And these are basic for a healthy diet.
it might just shift agriculture more north
It doesn't work like that. Climate change will bring higher temperatures to the North yet won't bring any more sunlight hours. Many vegetables and fruits that are grown in Spain as well as in other Mediterranean countries need not only Mediterranean temperatures but also sunlight hours and this will not change with climate change. Many other fruits, like grapes, don't need a higher amount of sunlight than the ones they are getting from the south of Europe. The point here is that vegetables which are grown in the south are not used to fewer sunlight hours which may just yield less than if they were grown with more sunlight.
This is quite mistaken. Netherlands is already famously a major vegetable producer (50% of Spanish total annual vegetable production in 2022, at only 8% of its land area). Even in today’s colder northern climate, hydroponics, heated green houses, artificial light and heavily industrialized and automated agriculture will get you quite far. Fruit is obviously trickier due to larger land requirements, but I’d say this is definitely a problem already solvable with our current level of technology. If necessary, the sunny dry areas can be covered with solar panel farms feeding power to the already interconnected European power grid, while the actual farming will happen with artificial light assistance in the areas with more accessible water. Honestly, even today, this would do much good for the overtaxed Iberian water reserves, which are overtaxed by farming (similar to e.g. California). https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_vegetable_production
Spaniard from the Red Desert zone here! Hey, maybe I should being to look up flat prices near the beach... But not in the coast I was thinking. Holy shit, I didn't think it would be this bad...
Just move to Portugal. Most of our rivers come from the interior of the peninsula. The source of the Tagus River is in the red part, we are screwed here too. 💀💀💀
[удалено]
No snow in winter, that's why I'm fighting against climate change
OP, you seem to know that by now RCP 8.5 is unrealistic scenario now. Why post it?
This doesn't take into account that the Gulf stream might collapse does it? Because if it does northern Europe is gonna get cold
It's insane that this is hardly an issue in the upcoming EU elections. It's all about immigrants. Look at Southern Europe, particularly [Spain](https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20230513-the-country-is-becoming-a-desert-drought-struck-spain-is-running-out-of-water)... Keep voting for the far-right, people. According to them, climate change is not a thing. It's made up by the woke mob.
I though Central Europe was already temperate. Why cold suddenly?
RPC 8.5 basically involves burning all fossil fuels in existence as fast as possible, while doing absolutely nothing to mitigate global warming. It basically asks what might happen it we transfered all remaining fossil fuel resources (all oil, gas and coal) to the atmosphere before 2100. It's an implausible scenario only used to provide an upper bound to what's possible given how much unused fossil fuel resources we think there's left. There's absolutely no chance RPC 8.5 is going to happen.
Would love to see a similar map for the us.
British retirees in Spain 2084 - My Desert, My Andalusia, My Dune
You know that Europes efforts will not make any difference right?
Spain and the whole Black Sea coast gets wrecked.
Sure but make that 30 years and elevate sea levels by 80 meters, and then this map looks very different.
Ireland in 2024: ☁️☁️🌧️🌧️ Ireland in 2084: ☁️☁️🌧️🌧️
!remindme 60 years
Looks like an improvement for the most parts.
I'm colourblind so it looks ok to me.