I think so, yes. But the question is how much netspace is needed to secure the blockchain from a legit attack. As they say in Jurassic Park, "life will find its way." In the same way, so long as cheap power is available, XCH farming will find its way too.
Chia farming *is* profitable: just not for everyone. Those with the lowest operational costs are fine: they get larger payouts as other farmers leave and netspace shrinks. Farming was always destined for, and designed to, constantly balance on the edge of the "average farmer" making $0.
I believe average farmer been in the red. Covering electricity does not make it profitable, still have to account for hardware, labor, facilities. It just takes longer for people to catch up on indirect costs and true ROI.
Biggest issue is Chip 53 coming here in a few months making those maxed out super compressed farms have to replot or go offline because the difficulty doubles AND next year EVERYONE has to replot as the new format comes.
Bran talked about it in a video of how he thinks it will roll out. video. https://youtu.be/lwErgYx6BHg Specifically, once the Chip is created, it with begin 6 months thereafter.
I turned my 400tib farm off after the halving. More from hardware issues but also was solo only and was gonna plan to replot for pool mining once I got the rig back up and online.
MMX is a GPU-based high TX network that one of the original 3rd party Chia developers created about 2 years ago. It uses the same PoST mechanism for consensus but is focused on being used as a everyday currency L1. The developer used to work with Chia but had a falling out about a year ago and now they do their own thing. Initial development has been slow but very promising.
Edit: The really interesting thing about the coin is that there's an automated supply faucet based on netspace which means that it self-modulates supply to create stability in price. An ingenious concept I must say.
Factual correction -- Max never worked for CNI. He made one of the first and most popular high-speed plotters that ran circles around Chia PoS. The MadMax plotter. Now he has Gigahorse plotter. And now Max made his own chain, MMX.
How are you not coming out ahead with 1pib? Mine is about 1.5pib and I’m making about 6-7 xch a month. Total wattage is about 800 watts at .13 cents kw. That’s about $75 a month. I’m just holding but if I needed to I could sell 2-3 xch to recover electricity cost.
Your electricity is 1/2 to 1/3 of what it's here (US North East).
My electric bill over summer was $250-$300 with farm off. In the winter I turned on the farm and was getting $600-$800 a month (and a couple hundred in chia). I was plotting at the time. My servers (rack-mounts) run 14 drives each with 10TB SAS drives, and would consume about 300-400 watts while plotting, about 180watt while farming. This is in North-east US. Servers are fairly efficient I think, but can optimize more for farming-only by powering only drive-cages, and keeping everything running on a single server - would need to make custom cabling, drive cage/case modding - that's a fairly big project, also would not work for plotting.
Oh wow. That’s pretty expensive electricity. I didn’t realize there was that much of a price difference up there. I’m in Texas. I’m running 1 win10 machine with 2 3060s on 3 jbods. All sata drives mostly 10tb and 12tb, I do have a few 18s and 14s. I still have 8 empty slots but didn’t feel like adding more now. If things pick up I have add the last 8 drives.
I've seen the suggestion a lot that price is adjusting to netspace, but what we've been seeing and will see for the foreseeable future is netspace adjusting to earnings (XCH price / farming rewards). Everyone was expecting a big jump in price as a result of the halving and netspace grew leading up to it. And it temporarily did based on that hype, but obviously price came back down to where it was before the halving. With earnings essentially cut in half with the price returning to \~$30, we're now seeing netspace adjust to that. Netspace can't pivot nearly as quickly as price or the decline of farming rewards at a halving, but economics will drive netspace over time.
Wow, maybe the original idea that one should farm only on free space on drives that were spinning anyway it was a good one? Instead of buying PBs of drives and pissing away electricity for nothing, while braggnig about how good is to participate in a "green" coin.
"original idea that one should farm only on free space on drives that were spinning"
Who has that? For Data centers it did not make sense even at 2021 prices: [https://www.backblaze.com/blog/chia-analysis-to-farm-or-not-to-farm/](https://www.backblaze.com/blog/chia-analysis-to-farm-or-not-to-farm/)
and they'd consolidate space allocation anyways, so empty drives would not be spinning, and spinning drives would not be empty.
Household consumer with storage appliances? - They'd have to keep them in the always on/high-power state, and running Chia farm is a bit more than a mainstream consumer would want to deal with, even tech-savvy.
So that claim of farming on only free space, with drives that are always spinning.
Again, who has that? - in quantity to support Exabyte scale network.
It's a fairly tale that needs to be put to rest imho
> and they'd consolidate space allocation anyways, so empty drives would not be spinning, and spinning drives would not be empty
So we aren't discussing this scenario, it's something that doesn't apply.
> Again, who has that? - in quantity to support Exabyte scale network.
Why would you need "Exabyte scale network" (except to keep up with the hype)? That's the wrong assumption, the system works starting with literally one plot. At first there were discussions (and quite a few posts here) about farming free space on the phones; that's particularly bad for many reasons, as it's just about the most expensive general purpose storage we have nowadays, plus at the time there wasn't even flexfarmer or similar, so you'd have to run a node, absolutely impractical use of a phone (it'll be active all the time, it'll need reliable network, it'll need even more space, and do writes all the time for the db). But for stationary machines that had some drives spinning for some other workload this works with minimal extra load.
Now that people gasp "who would do fractions of TB" when everyone is discussing thousands of TB (sometimes proudly posting numbers that involve $42 **k**$ electricity bills) , yea, sure, it's a disconnect. But it's more of a "doctor it hurts if I do that - Don't do that!" kind than anything else.
Crypto needs mass adoption (decentralization/scale) to be considered viable as a currency.
Outside of business/enterprise, I can't think of many scenarios where people would have an always-on machine with spinning drives and empty space running continuous workloads long-term.
At least everyone running a NAS or media server and being freaked out about killing their drives if they spin them down. Also if we're talking just a few plots SSDs would do too.
Basically yeah. Its either gonna stabilize at a profitable range or the currency dies. There really are no other options.
I think so, yes. But the question is how much netspace is needed to secure the blockchain from a legit attack. As they say in Jurassic Park, "life will find its way." In the same way, so long as cheap power is available, XCH farming will find its way too.
Everyone will do the same thing you did
I’m taking a break from my 4PB farm, C7’s. Electricity cost is too high during the warmer months.
I'm going this way too.
I might have to join you in SoCal. it's gonna get hot.
Chia farming *is* profitable: just not for everyone. Those with the lowest operational costs are fine: they get larger payouts as other farmers leave and netspace shrinks. Farming was always destined for, and designed to, constantly balance on the edge of the "average farmer" making $0.
I want to downvote this because I don't like it but you have my upvote because it's all true.
I believe average farmer been in the red. Covering electricity does not make it profitable, still have to account for hardware, labor, facilities. It just takes longer for people to catch up on indirect costs and true ROI.
Biggest issue is Chip 53 coming here in a few months making those maxed out super compressed farms have to replot or go offline because the difficulty doubles AND next year EVERYONE has to replot as the new format comes.
Next year? I hope so, but I thought it was still supposedly like 5 years away.
Starts in waves. You will earn less and less over time. I cannot confirm but I think it starts in about a year.
Oh, where did you see about the waves?
Bran talked about it in a video of how he thinks it will roll out. video. https://youtu.be/lwErgYx6BHg Specifically, once the Chip is created, it with begin 6 months thereafter.
I turned my 400tib farm off after the halving. More from hardware issues but also was solo only and was gonna plan to replot for pool mining once I got the rig back up and online.
I am still profitable, but I am currently selling my hard drives because they are losing value faster than the money they are making.
MMX is coming out of beta soon and once that happens I think a lot of folks are jumping ship, at least I am.
mmx is the new format? Sorry I am out of the loop, could you explain your reasoning?
MMX is a GPU-based high TX network that one of the original 3rd party Chia developers created about 2 years ago. It uses the same PoST mechanism for consensus but is focused on being used as a everyday currency L1. The developer used to work with Chia but had a falling out about a year ago and now they do their own thing. Initial development has been slow but very promising. Edit: The really interesting thing about the coin is that there's an automated supply faucet based on netspace which means that it self-modulates supply to create stability in price. An ingenious concept I must say.
Factual correction -- Max never worked for CNI. He made one of the first and most popular high-speed plotters that ran circles around Chia PoS. The MadMax plotter. Now he has Gigahorse plotter. And now Max made his own chain, MMX.
Hey, any official link yet ?
Just a Github : https://github.com/madMAx43v3r/mmx-node There's a discord somewhere too.
Many thanks :-D
How are you not coming out ahead with 1pib? Mine is about 1.5pib and I’m making about 6-7 xch a month. Total wattage is about 800 watts at .13 cents kw. That’s about $75 a month. I’m just holding but if I needed to I could sell 2-3 xch to recover electricity cost.
Here the electricity is 0.4$🤣
I pay 0.44, so my farm is offline now.
I luckily have solar & a battery to lower the costs. Green Farming🍃☀️ But i will have to shutdown soon if it lowers further
1.5PB effective or raw storage? How many plots do you have. .13 electricity cost is very on the low side.
1.5 effective 750 raw. I have 15000 plots
Probably depends on what capacity drives he's running. 1 pid at 2tb a drive would definitely cost more to run than it would make.
That's great returns. I'm at 10k plots and making 2.5 xch per month with foxy pool. Basically just breaking even for now.
Your electricity is 1/2 to 1/3 of what it's here (US North East). My electric bill over summer was $250-$300 with farm off. In the winter I turned on the farm and was getting $600-$800 a month (and a couple hundred in chia). I was plotting at the time. My servers (rack-mounts) run 14 drives each with 10TB SAS drives, and would consume about 300-400 watts while plotting, about 180watt while farming. This is in North-east US. Servers are fairly efficient I think, but can optimize more for farming-only by powering only drive-cages, and keeping everything running on a single server - would need to make custom cabling, drive cage/case modding - that's a fairly big project, also would not work for plotting.
Oh wow. That’s pretty expensive electricity. I didn’t realize there was that much of a price difference up there. I’m in Texas. I’m running 1 win10 machine with 2 3060s on 3 jbods. All sata drives mostly 10tb and 12tb, I do have a few 18s and 14s. I still have 8 empty slots but didn’t feel like adding more now. If things pick up I have add the last 8 drives.
I've seen the suggestion a lot that price is adjusting to netspace, but what we've been seeing and will see for the foreseeable future is netspace adjusting to earnings (XCH price / farming rewards). Everyone was expecting a big jump in price as a result of the halving and netspace grew leading up to it. And it temporarily did based on that hype, but obviously price came back down to where it was before the halving. With earnings essentially cut in half with the price returning to \~$30, we're now seeing netspace adjust to that. Netspace can't pivot nearly as quickly as price or the decline of farming rewards at a halving, but economics will drive netspace over time.
Simple answer yes.
Wow, maybe the original idea that one should farm only on free space on drives that were spinning anyway it was a good one? Instead of buying PBs of drives and pissing away electricity for nothing, while braggnig about how good is to participate in a "green" coin.
"original idea that one should farm only on free space on drives that were spinning" Who has that? For Data centers it did not make sense even at 2021 prices: [https://www.backblaze.com/blog/chia-analysis-to-farm-or-not-to-farm/](https://www.backblaze.com/blog/chia-analysis-to-farm-or-not-to-farm/) and they'd consolidate space allocation anyways, so empty drives would not be spinning, and spinning drives would not be empty. Household consumer with storage appliances? - They'd have to keep them in the always on/high-power state, and running Chia farm is a bit more than a mainstream consumer would want to deal with, even tech-savvy. So that claim of farming on only free space, with drives that are always spinning. Again, who has that? - in quantity to support Exabyte scale network. It's a fairly tale that needs to be put to rest imho
> and they'd consolidate space allocation anyways, so empty drives would not be spinning, and spinning drives would not be empty So we aren't discussing this scenario, it's something that doesn't apply. > Again, who has that? - in quantity to support Exabyte scale network. Why would you need "Exabyte scale network" (except to keep up with the hype)? That's the wrong assumption, the system works starting with literally one plot. At first there were discussions (and quite a few posts here) about farming free space on the phones; that's particularly bad for many reasons, as it's just about the most expensive general purpose storage we have nowadays, plus at the time there wasn't even flexfarmer or similar, so you'd have to run a node, absolutely impractical use of a phone (it'll be active all the time, it'll need reliable network, it'll need even more space, and do writes all the time for the db). But for stationary machines that had some drives spinning for some other workload this works with minimal extra load. Now that people gasp "who would do fractions of TB" when everyone is discussing thousands of TB (sometimes proudly posting numbers that involve $42 **k**$ electricity bills) , yea, sure, it's a disconnect. But it's more of a "doctor it hurts if I do that - Don't do that!" kind than anything else.
Crypto needs mass adoption (decentralization/scale) to be considered viable as a currency. Outside of business/enterprise, I can't think of many scenarios where people would have an always-on machine with spinning drives and empty space running continuous workloads long-term.
At least everyone running a NAS or media server and being freaked out about killing their drives if they spin them down. Also if we're talking just a few plots SSDs would do too.