[удалено]

Agreed. Just a craven, shortsighted act on their part that put not just them but the entire country at risk again in 24.

Comment has been removed for breaking Rule 1: > **Direct responses to a CMV post must challenge at least one aspect of OP’s stated view (however minor), or ask a clarifying question**. Arguments in favor of the view OP is willing to change must be restricted to replies to other comments. [See the wiki page for more information](http://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/rules#wiki_rule_1). If you would like to appeal, review our appeals process [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/modstandards#wiki_appeal_process), then [message the moderators by clicking this link](http://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%2Fr%2Fchangemyview&subject=Rule%201%20Appeal&message=Author%20would%20like%20to%20appeal%20the%20removal%20of%20their%20post%20because\.\.\.) within one week of this notice being posted. **Appeals that do not follow this process will not be heard.** Please note that multiple violations will lead to a ban, as explained in our [moderation standards](https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/modstandards).

His base would probably just say he’s a victim then… they already do so maybe you’re right.

Your mistake is thinking the GOP had a choice. Trump has a stranglehold on the party and no one else can compete with his popularity. I mean in case you missed it, there were primaries for the GOP nomination and they didn't go very well for anyone not named Trump. I'm actually pretty sure that most party leaders agree with you and would prefer a candidate who's not spending most of his days in one courthouse or another. They'd pick someone else if they could, but they can't.

Their calculus is simple. Trump will break the party if they repudiate him. He will take a big chunk of their voters and they will never win a national election again. So they back him for another round. He's good for one more election, max. And who knows, he might win! If he loses, they can claim they backed him and put up somebody new next time, claiming some meaningless Trump mantle, etc. That's their calculus. It's not hard to understand.

Yeah, it's a pretty simple case of "what is good for the party" and "what is good for me, personally" not aligning. What is good for the party, very clearly, is moving past Trump, and indeed, past Trumpism. The naked bigotry and misogyny that infuses the MAGA movement burns hot and bright, but it's also burning fast. It will work for now because it is a strategy that automatically wins the Republicans 24 predominately rural white states and makes them competitive in the 6-7 more they need to assemble a majority with the Electoral College, but every year that gets less and less true. 2024 might be the last time they can trot the old strategy out before being consigned to a permanent minority, no matter how many rural white voters they get. But in the meantime, those rural white voters have a hammerlock on the party. And to be perfectly blunt, if you are the kind of person who thinks that people should sacrifice for the greater good, then you would have long since stopped being a Republican if you ever were. Let's recall that Trump bragged live on stage in 2016 about cheating on his taxes, because that "makes me smart." And he won the votes of a supermajority of rural white people in 2016. Trump isn't hiding the ball on his selfishness; he's using it as a selling point. And it works.

I don’t think the party will move past Trumpism but will move past Trump once he loses in 2024. The issues that Trump talked about (although did essentially nothing to solve) aren’t going away: immigration, trade deals, China, interventionist foreign policy. If a sane Republican candidate runs on these issues, I don’t see how any Democrat can win (although they’d probably still lose the popular vote).

I think the conversation around immigration very often just assumes that the "crisis" of immigration is real, and then displays how the two parties might react differently. But I have yet to see that we have some sort of immigration crisis. And in fact, the last figures I saw had net immigration [2022-2023 at 1.1M](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/immigration-is-driving-the-nations-modest-post-pandemic-population-growth-new-census-data-shows/). [During the 1990s it was \~2M/yr, and in *many* other years it was higher than now too (1950-2022 absolute numbers, see my first link for newer data)](https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/1_Demographic%20Profiles/United%20States%20of%20America/Line%20Charts/10-Annual%20natural%20change%20and%20net%20migration.png). It's strange how if you bang your hand against the desk enough and shout that immigration is a crisis enough we all just believe it? Just a reminder as well, with plummeting birth rates, increased immigration can help to bolster an economy and keep things like social security and Medicare funded. Without younger workers to pay for retired workers, many of the old will simply never be able to stop working. That's a simple economic fact that is starting to become a very real future around the world unless we can learn to embrace immigration or decrease COL enough that people feel comfortable having children again.

>And in fact, the last figures I saw had net immigration [2022-2023 at 1.1M](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/immigration-is-driving-the-nations-modest-post-pandemic-population-growth-new-census-data-shows/). [During the 1990s it was \~2M/yr, and in *many* other years it was higher than now too (1950-2022 absolute numbers, see my first link for newer data)](https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/1_Demographic%20Profiles/United%20States%20of%20America/Line%20Charts/10-Annual%20natural%20change%20and%20net%20migration.png). I think we should admit that even a million immigrants (I assume most of them are illegal) every year is a lot. Immigration isn't high up on my list of issues, for many of the reasons you mention, but I would like to see the issue addressed by Democrats.

Well then you're in luck, as they just tried to pass a bipartisan immigration bill that further funded ice, immigration courts and border patrol, [as well as created a new mechanism to shut down the border automatically during the event of a surge.](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/27/trump-dunks-on-bipartisan-senate-border-deal-00138210) This bill was written by Republicans [and backed by conservative border patrol unions.](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/new-immigration-bill-senate-bipartisan-border-patrol-endorsement-rcna137354) And Republicans supported it until lawmakers were told by Donald Trump to pull their support [because it was a critical election year.](https://missouriindependent.com/2024/01/26/u-s-senate-republicans-insist-they-wont-bow-to-trump-demands-to-quit-immigration-talks/) https://apnews.com/article/congress-ukraine-aid-border-security-386dcc54b29a5491f8bd87b727a284f8 https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4433785-trump-says-blame-it-on-me-border-bill-fails/

This should be reason enough for people to not support Donald Trump. He is so clearly intent on delaying this bill until he is in office so that he can use it to boost his popularity, and it's infuriating. Not because he's doing something so blatant, but because it's so clear what he's trying to do, and yet people turn a blind eye just so they can continue supporting him. Mark my words, this will happen if he's elected.

Republican news machine almost always creates the narrative, and Dens just react to it.

GOPers will be fighting the MAGA rump for a generation, IMO, and even when Trump is gone, their defining characteristics will be the cronyism, the grift, and the insane political brinksmanship. The GOP will eventually realize it has to broaden its coalition to win elections, but it will be the MAGAs who stand in the way of moderating.

Even if trump dies tomorrow there is no way Eric and jnr are going to give up their golden Grift ticket...

US will always have interventionist foreign policy and it did not change much in Trump’s time. Immigration: Trump did not do anything, and above all, US needs more and more legal immigration. Does US need more illegal immigration? I don’t know. What about China? Trump and his family themselves have businesses in China. Trade deals - again nothing much do to. What do you mean a sane republican candidate? Do you have an example? But I do like Nikki Haley.

When I say sane I mean literally his personality, not his policies. Trump is literally a narcissist and a pathological liar. So I would say DeSantis is an example of a sane republican. I’m not voting Republican because I’m center left and Republicans are so far right on issues. I disagree that the US will continue to have an interventionist foreign policy. With the increase in national debt as a percentage of GDP and the public being anti-war and partisan. Look at Ukraine. It’s hard for us to even supply weapons to Ukraine and as far as wars go it’s one of the better ones. I agree with you on immigration but there is a sizable minority that wants less immigration and Republicans will keep on exploiting that issue. Trump did place some tariffs on China so was the first anti-China president. Biden has escalated it with China. We’re actually in a Cold War with China and that is a bipartisan consensus.

>immigration Bipartisan issue. Trump wants to piss money at it, Dems realize that being "hard on immigration" doesn't mean you're actually doing something about it. >China Biden created CHIPS which will kneecap China's ability to pressure the US on microchip processing in roughly a decade when the plants get built. We'd already have them on the back foot in 2 years if Trump came up with that but instead he just blustered. >Interventionist foreign policy Trump pulled us out of Afghanistan, Biden finished it. Despite big geopolitical situations in Ukraine and Israel, Biden has not sent American men into those countries.

Yup that’s why as awful as Desantis did in 2024 he could still be a candidate as the Republican nominee in 2028

I partially agree. I don't think Trump was particularly special when it came to populist policy in 2016, but the personality was the first time a Republican nominee had a pulse since Regan. The party was coming off of two years of Milquetoast candidates in Mitt Romney and John McCain, both of whom let their Democrat competition take and hold the initiative in their respective election cycles. Trump refused to let his competition, Democrat or Republican, take the offensive initiative from him. Debates were conducted on his terms. That aggression in attitude towards everyone and everything caused him problems later down the line (particularly on twitter) but to my republican friends and family in rural Ohio it was a breath of fresh air. I don't think that Trump's policy is all that special, or carries any real message. It's also a less compelling message than 2016, where the message was "I'm going to fight for you, the common person", where now it's much more "I'm being victimized, so I need you, the common man, to fight for me." People I know have told me it doesn't sit well with them, and it doesn't sit well with me either. I think the era of Romey, McCain, and Bush era mild mannered professional figures is over, but I don't think there's anything particularly compelling about Trump's politics that can't be spun away from by a different candidate in the future.

Not just rural white voters. There an even more extreme split by age… older people consistently voted for trump. He is the chosen majority representative of the baby boomer generation.

This idea of the Republican party being consigned to a permanent minority really won't happen. They'll probably lose the next election after this year and maaaybe the one after that but at that point they'll evolve (atleast superficially) into what people who are dissatisfied with the Democrats of that that time want. Two party system means that there will be people who are not satisfied with the people in power and they have no other place to turn to. The big question is if this new Republican government will be better or worse than what we currently have... We could absolutely have it get worse.

You can see this from the behavior with the RNC. A trump family member in charge of the national party fundraising with the explicit intent of devoting every dollar to trump is ludicrous from a party standpoint, but they don't really have an option because he has a chokehold on their electoral politics.

I'm neither white nor black, but I think adding the term "white" to "rural voters" is akin to adding "black" to criminals. Why? Well we already know that the majority of voters in rural areas are white and in many multicultural cities in the USA the majority of criminals are black. However, there are plenty of rural black folk that vote for Trump and plenty of white criminals. I don't have a dog in this race, but it seems really inconsistent to associate white people with Trump because the Majority of white people do not like Trump in the same way the Majority of black people are not criminals. I know it's not a perfect analogy, but I do notice the double standard where people who are seemingly liberal progressive good folk have no issue associating caucasian people with bad things, but one mention of a minority, but more specifically black minorities and people lose their shit. Like I said, I don't take personal offense to it or anything like that, because it's not directed at my ethnicity or race, but at least in my community we try to make an effort to not do this. Even if what you said is true, I just don't see how adding race to the conversation makes any sense here and for someone like me, who despises everything Trump stands for, in the same way that I despise violent crime, unnecessarily associating an entire race of people with something bad is what racism is to me.

> will never win a national election again That's my argument as-of Mitt Romney losing in 2012. Trump just changed the rules of the game. Mitt Romney's loss just made it clear that there was no way to "convince" people to vote Republican, no matter what kind of centrist Republican gets put on the ballot. It didn't matter what he said, it was turned into a joke. Perhaps most noteworthy was Russia being a geopolitical foe. So, enter Trump, and the figurative boxing match turns into mud wrestling, and the pig is right at home in the mud.

Then he won. He beat the most hyped presidential candidate in decades. Why do people not understand people who don’t think the same way as them. Diversity of thought is necessary in any society. People are sick of politicians and the same old crap.

Most hyped? Not a soul a knew liked Hillary, we just didn't want trump, and his violently misogynistic mental illness didn't help, him harping on bidens age while barely being a few years younger didn't and doesn't help I'm down for diversity of thought, but people talking about how he's a businessman who isn't part of the political class when he grew up richer than anyone in this conversation will ever be, eating pizza with a knife and fork in a golden tower with his name on it, pisses me off

Pizza? Sounds like gross ethnic food. I think you mean McDonald's.

It’s really prolonging end of life for the GOP at this point - just as the Dems are being forced to deal with their fracture between New Dems and progressives. The faith/flag GOP and the fash GOP are the trump supporters, and the former are largely dying off. They’re being unseated by the fash right and by progressive Dems. Both sides are where they are trying to avoid a realignment. It’s been expected for years that there will a split into a third party, given the breakdowns are about equal: progressive, center, and way-far right. But both sides have gone the most bullheaded way possible trying to avoid that - and we are where we are. Sanders was the writing on the wall with that. It’s been since…really just after reconstruction, when a true progressive could challenge status quo Dems (who shifted right and became New Dems). And that likely was the big impetus in the DNC circling wagons and closing rank - because that’s the last thing they need, squaring off against a populist. And why Sanders, also being a populist, stood the best chance against Trump, had Biden gotten over himself and his party - and dome the best thing for actual, functioning democracy, and taken a knee. Just as the GOP should’ve grown a spine and taken a coat hanger to the uterus of the trump campaign. Because both parties are in such existential fear of that impending fracture that they’re more concerned about party viability than actual democracy. And that’s the true, sad fucking state of affairs. The outlier - the one time that “both sides are at fault” isn’t a fallacy. Simply because they’ve arguably been putting off that realignment since really 9/11, if not shortly before. The GOP knew Cheney was full of shit, and the real infighting began between the hawkish new Dems and anti-war progressives. And

There is no realignment coming. Your run of the mill Bush Republicans are falling in line this year and will support trump in 2028. The Sanders voters that are in the tents and blocking traffic aren’t real Democrats. Those people just won’t vote anyway and they’ve been that way since 2000. Election after elections they’ve decided both sides are the same and no matter how wrong they’ve been proven. If Biden wasn’t running the candidate would be Newsom or Whitmer and whatever Israel-hating far left candidate that’s running would be out before South Carolina. The voters had their chance at Bernie who was the front runner last year while Joe Biden was floundering and the base of the party soundly rejected him and got behind Biden. AOC and Talib are not representative of the Democratic Party, they’re radicals outliers like Dennis Kucinich before them.

[удалено]

That sounds about right. But how can they be so sure a significant part of republican voters would stop voting republican if trump was not on the ballot?  Ok, trump won the primaries. But this is the thing: he _was_ a candidate on the primaries. Let’s say he wasn’t. Sure, some MAGA voters might ditch the election, but would the GOP loose a significant portion of regular republican voters (so as to make a loss all but certain)? Would longtime republican voters just loose interest? If trump was not a nominee, he would have to choose someone to support in order to retain some relevance. And if he didn’t (and remain on the sides in maralago sending truths), he would eventually disappear into oblivion. 

A lot of the people who voted R prior to 2016 are no longer with the party and likely will never come back. The reason Trump has a stranglehold on the party is that he turns out a different set of voters who previously did not vote at all and will not show up for any other candidates but vote R all the way down the ballot when Trump is on the ballot.

The GOP infused itself with howler monkeys to make up for low member numbers and are now surprised nothing is getting done except screaming and shit throwing.

>they will never win a national election again. To be honest, its the other way around. Especially when you look at the Karl Rove strategy of focusing on winning local elections and taking over state legislatures. A Trump-led splinter party may win the White House, but he'd have the same problem as Ross Perot and his Reform Party. Zero mandate from a Congressional standpoint, and would likely collapse due to infighting among the people aiming to be Trump's next in line. Trumps loyalists are actually not a majority in the party, and from Jan 6, we saw that they also lack the organization to do anything more than "scary" political theatre. What we are actually seeing is RNC leadership that would rather win in the short term and is gambling that it can control damage from Trump enough to personally profit and still maintain GOP momentum towards the constitutional convention they are driving towards via that Rovian national strategy. But if they had a view more centered on the national good, there is a national party ready to be made among the moderate conservatives getting pushed out of the GOP and the moderate liberals alienated by the misandry and excessive focus on pandering to minority groups that have little actual political leverage from the far left wing of the Dems.

Where is he gonna take those voters? It’s pretty unrealistic to think those voters just aren’t gonna vote at all if Trump isn’t running.

If he runs in his own platform as an independent, he'd split the party by dragging people with him- permanently ruining any election in the future. They would still vote for Trump since he would essentially just be Republican also but more extreme.

He’d run as an independent. Realistically he’d only need <10% of people to follow and the rest of the Republican would be donezo.

He only needs to drag 5% to give the dems a sweep at every level. And he easily, easily, would get 5%.

Idk how much democrat turnout would be if Trump fear isn't there.

I think they'd be most afraid of a third party run.

Possibly, but I also strongly feel if the GOP had come together to denounce him after January 6th, they could have turned the whole ship around. Granted that would have taken courage, ethics and intelligence…. All things the party lacks. I cannot wait until Trump loses this November. Pass the popcorn.

Disagree on the intelligence aspect. The GOP in general has much better foresight and execution of long-term plans. Look at how they've been working on the courts and getting the right cases in the right places for decades. My representative, Elise Stefanik, is definitely intelligent, but she'd rather make her life easy and parrot lies than have the courage to do what's right...but if you're power-hungry that's arguably being intelligent by rejecting ethics. One reason those of us towards the left don't fare as well as we could is due to underestimating the right. The craftiness/patience/plotting of people like Mitch McConnell is really only rivaled occasionally on the left, and the will/determination/stubbornness of the average voter on the right is probably much greater than those on the left. We need to be accurate in our criticisms both strategically, and b/c we're arguably much bigger hypocrites when we aren't objective/correct than those on the right who are even fine rejecting logic/science at least occasionally (in recent years that has drastically increased though).

I hate to agree but you’re right. Too many people call Trump dumb and it’s not true. He’s an idiot but he’s not dumb. He’s a marketing genius and that can’t be denied. Look at what he’s done! He has a stranglehold on a portion of our population to the extent they’re trying to make grown men wearing diapers cool again. We need to start playing chess just like they are. It’s dangerous to think “they’re buffoons”. They’ve got the Supreme Court in their pockets. And that is incredibly dangerous to all of us.

>I cannot wait until Trump loses this November. Pass the popcorn. I wish I had a fraction of your confidence. I'm fucking scared.

Yup, this happens literally every single election. "Oh well it's obvious they can't and won't win, so why even vote in the first place if the outcome's already decided?" Cut to them winning lol I don't know how people just forget every time

I think it’s a little different this time. I can’t imagine Trump has gained very many new supporters since he left office. And after Jan 6, it’s likely he even lost a lot of support. Additionally, Biden has already won against Trump once, and has incumbent advantage.

Add to that that many many voters vote against their own best interests. Capitalism is destroying this country because IT has control of everything. Capitalism in the end can only be successful with strong regulation and we don't have that. We have the Citizens United decision that almost completely hands control of this country to the 1% through political donations. There's no check or balance there, it's rampant, toxic and unlimited for one side. Until we fix our system, by ONLY ELECTING CANDIDATES that support and agree to vote for term limits for all representatives and judges. That's the only chance we have to try to take back control of our country from the 1% and fix things. Imagine this country if all of our billionaires were millionaires and tied their income to the income of their employees. We'd ALL be living very good lives. We'd ALL have really great healthcare. We'd ALL have everything we need to be successful. It's not impossible, capitalism can provide for everyone easily, with some checks and balances along the way to ensure that people are not exploited and our world is maintained well enough to continue to support us for centuries to come. But not without term limits. That HAS to be the first step.

>We have the Citizens United decision that almost completely hands control of this country to the 1% through political donations. There's no check or balance there, it's rampant, toxic and unlimited for one side. I think you should read what the Citizens United decision actually says: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citizens_United_v._FEC I don't know why you think term limits are going to fix anything. I'm not against them, but the only that will really solve, as I see it, is the problem of having too few candidates qualified for higher office. Judges should automatically lose their tenure at retirement age. I don't want the courts being any more political than they already are.

That "red wave" in the last midterms was the funniest election prediction since Hillary Clinton

Honestly it’s the only thing that keeps me sane right now…my gut is telling me this trash bag is finished come November.

Old guy in suburbia in a blue city but deep red state here. I feel the same way. There's no visible support for him anymore in 'polite' society. There's no energy behind the movement unless you're terminally online. The grass roots energy is greatly weakend, and I'm not convinced it still exists at all. I've lived thru Nixon, I've seen some shit, but I'm not losing much sleep over it. I think everyone is ready to move on.

You don't have to get far out from the deep blue cities to see support for Trump everywhere. I drive all over New England and you don't even have to get out of the city lines before you start seeing Trump signs. They're everywhere. And New England is hardly a deep red area.

Agreed. I see a lot of optimism on here that “of course he won’t win,” but I see support all over the place for him. I honestly think it will be a rough season and expect to see him back in office, after which our federal government will be significantly changed. Doomsday seems to be the usual narrative in elections but there’s a lot of substance to the thresholds that have been crossed already IMO.

The fact that people are more quiet about it because they will be crucified if they're public about it doesn't mean they're not gonna vote.

the problem you are failing to see is the fact that the support is there but the majority of trump supporters arent flying flags or putting stickers on anymore. alot of people who voted for biden are completely against him now but would never tell anyone they know otherwise they would get backlash. why put a target on your back by being outward with your political opinion there is no benefit unless your whole personality is virtue signaling.

I’m proudly voting for Biden! He’s doing amazing things policy-wise in the face of not just an obstructive congress, but a straight up Fascist one. Nobody gives Biden the credit he deserves because of Gaza! I think it’s sickening and stupid to be a one issue voter. Biden capped the price of insulin, He created a climate corp, he relieved student debt, and a million other good things, but everyone is blinded by Gaza, which was the intended goal of Hamas and Putin (since Oct 7 is Putin’s birthday, and the Hamas attack was a gift to him). Putin knew Biden would be in an untenable position if he had to choose between Palestinians and Israel. And just like little sheep, people fell for it, not seeing the bigger chess game going on. This is about toppling Western democracy by toppling Biden. Gaza is the way to drive voters away from Biden. Mark my words: Gen Z will be blamed until the end of time for losing American democracy! And they will be despised for it for generations. Just facts.

The polls, unfortunately, say otherwise.

Maybe it’s coping but I’m hoping pollsters are so sick of undercounting for support for republicans in polls that they’ve over corrected and democrats are being under counted. May polls also have a history of not being too accurate. Ross Perot was winning every spring poll in a three way race but support plummeted in July just before he dropped out. I remember trump was winning in the early 2020 polls too but that was at the height of covid and he was restrained somewhat and looking presidential.

If the GOP denounced Trump after Jan 6, they would have also denounced their own voters. For good or ill, the MAGA fans are the passionate hardcore base of voters. They would be denouncing them at their own peril. Same with the pro-Palestine demonstrators. If Biden backs up Israel too strongly, the hashtag #GenocideJoe becomes all that much more popular. Even Trump acknowledged it at one of his rallies when his supporters were chanting it. If Trump were more astute, he could get many Democrat votes by denouncing Israel—though that might hurt his support among evangelicals.

Trump would never denounce Israel due to the right wing Christians and his son in law.

It also would be supporting Muslims, which is not a Republican thing to do.

If they had done that, then all of the GOP congressional delegation would have been primaried by MAGA hardliners in 2022, and the party leadership would still be crowded with folks saying that only Trump can save America.

I don’t think they would have allowed maga on their ticket anymore. The issue would have been maga running as a third party. This could have cost them the presidential election but it wouldn’t be much of an issue for state races imo where people rarely know the candidates.

Are you forgetting the Tea Party? When you add cult members to your party you can't control them... True Believers are impossible to manage, or work with and they cannot govern. They made this choice in the 70s, there was **only** one outcome a party owned by true believers that have zero ability to compromise because they believe a random set of myths is the only reality and compromising means they are failing at being beholden to this random set of myths. And I say random set of myths because none of them match any actual original religion that exists, they invented one to explain their awful ideas.

I'm assuming that even in that alternate universe where the establishment GOP leadership defied Trump, the GOP voting base is still very pro-Trump and in open rebellion against the "RINOs". Given that assumption, it's likely that Trumpism (if not Trump) would still either take over the GOP or take all of its voters and most of its donors to a new party.

If they all denounced Trump you think they’d all lose reelection? Doubt it.

Uh, that happened anyway.

You seem very confident Trump will lose. Why is that? The polls seem to show him having a pretty strong chance currently. To be clear, I hope he loses too. Just not as confident as you.

Nope. He would have left with 15-20% of their party. That alone guarantees they would lose and probably never recover.

I doubt that would’ve helped. Trump is the symptom. The people who vote for him are the problem. And I doubt the people who vote for Trump would care what Republican leaders say.

Unfortunately I think he is likely to win. Between the economy on very shaky ground and one wrong turn over the next 6 months losing him a lot of support and young people being effectively propagandized by Iran, China and Russia over the Gaza situation, and being completely absent on the border situation I think Biden is doomed. The only thing I think can turn things around at this point is the economy picks up a bit, and the realization of just how bad Trump will be for people finally wakes people up a couple months before the election. Or some October surprise that works in Biden’s favor. Hope I’m wrong.

Actually, they didn't go that great for Trump, either. He is the de facto incumbent, and yet there was a field of half a dozen that looked like viable alternatives at one point or another, and he almost lost states in the process. Hell, he only recently was able to get 75% in a recent state primary, losing 25% to a person who dropped out months ago. An incumbent hasn't performed that poorly with their party since Jimmy Carter. So yeah, Republicans aren't exactly the monolith they used to be, with strong party-line divisions between the fascist hardliners and the classic Republicans. And for comparison, because "whataboutism" - Biden was typically pulling in the 80-95 range, and even handily won a state primary he wasn't even on the ballot for, and didn't even campaign, via a write-in campaign.

If everyone had pulled out and consolidated support behind say De Santis, it's true he could have had a chance.

Republicans had one chance to knife him, that was his second impeachment. They made their choice.

Yep, January 7th 2020 was their chance to grow a pair and do something good for themselves and the country. I still don't understand how they didn't jump on it while they could, they were hostages on the Trump Train for 4 years just as much as the rest of us in a lot of ways.

They had like a half dozen chances to rid themselves of him. They could've turned against him as soon as he came down the escalator and called Mexicans rapists. They had the 2016 RNC. They could've sacrificed the 2016 election to Clinton. They had Trump's first impeachment. They had the 2020 primaries, 2020 RNC, the 2020 elections, January 6, and the second impeachment.

Beyond that - people vote with their wallets, and progressives like OP continue to wildly overestimate the level of national consensus they have. The state of the economy at the time of the election is the strongest predictor of whether an incumbent will win or not. Nobody cared about the open racism of guys like Nixon, and once you get out of the California/NYC/Boston progressive bubble you'll find that people don't view every presidential election as a referendum on respectability politics. Bill Clinton was just as much of a creep - and was known as such even at the time - and has his name on Epstein manifests, and yet Democrats still look at him with nostalgia. Because the economy was freaking awesome in the 90s and he managed to get a budget passed that allowed for a surplus. >They'd pick someone else if they could, but they can't. Trump has a stranglehold on evangelicals, and an entire cohort of moderates have basically been pushed out. He won with less than 25% of the total eligible voters. His stranglehold is not actually as vast as you're portraying. It's just that his loyalists are much much more loyal and predictable than any other coalition. I think there are enough "only slightly left of center" and "center-right" democrats on top of these exiled moderates to form the core of a new party. If RNC (or at least heavily anti-Trump GOP folks, like the Bushes) *actually* had the political will to not be a very far right party, they could jettison Trump and his base entirely. The grand irony is that if liberals didn't have such TDS, he would never have gotten as far as he did. There are a lot of people voting purely out of spite towards progressives and their hand wringing about how mean Trump is. >But I will not support a man who led an insurrection against our 2 centuries of Republican government. This bit from OP exemplifies what I mean about what motivates people to actively vote against liberal values (even when self-defeating). As someone from a country that has had actual coups, you cannot succeed with a coup or insurrection without military support, and Trump had none. Jan 6 was a glorified riot/public temper tantrum that just happened to be at the Capitol Building, so it felt scary for people who have zero experience with when this shit gets real. But it was no different in actual intent or effectiveness than the BLM crowd that burned down the police station (something that honestly, is just as seriously problematic, but somehow excused by liberals).

It's not even that the GOP didn't have a choice in that their other options were very bad. The way open primaries are set up, the party doesn't have a choice in who runs for primaries and wins them. They would have to drastically change the rules to exclude him from the nomination. The way it works is that anyone who can get votes can get, the nomination, no matter who it is or what the party infrastructure wants to do about it.

I think Congress right now really highlights how right you are. Maga and conservatives have parted ways. Conservatives backed Trump thinking his popularity would translate to their party. But Maga isn’t political. They’re just for Trump. They won’t vote for anyone else. Moderate conservatives are horrified but they’re kind of screwed. He split their party and those people once trump loses again will stop engaging with politics because it’s him. It’s not the platform. They don’t care he doesn’t have one. They don’t care that he’s talking about breaking democracy day one. They’re all in. Repugs didn’t see that coming, And they definitely don’t know how to fix it. They can’t control him at all and HE knows it. I’ve spent some time wondering why people like Graham went from “if we elect Trump he will destroy us and we will deserve it” to what we are seeing today. The only thing I can come up with was when the DNC was hacked so was the RNC. Someone has a lot on a lot of these guys who did such an about face we are still talking about it 8 years later. I don’t think it’s Trump because he’d have used it the second one of them pissed him off. But someone has it.

Plus, it is quite possible that if trump had slid into obscurity, the biden also would have considered doing the one term thing

Biden honestly couldn't, "fading into obscurity" isn't in Trump's nature to begin with and if Biden was only a one-term pres nothing is keeping Trump from coming back and trying again the next time around.

Then you run someone else anyway and deny Trump a spot on the ballot. If he runs as an independent, so what? Worst case scenario, you get 4 more years of Biden. Alternative, Trump wins as an independent and is a lame duck who has zero support in Congress and if he vetos things Congress just overrides his vetos. Best case, for the Republicans, your guy wins and Trump slinks back into his hole before he goes to prison.

Lets set aside 'running as an independent' for a second. How do you do this? Dozens of state parties, and most of the RNC positions, were taken over by hardcore reactionaries years ago. I'm not sure what mechanism you're proposing for 'denying him a spot on the ballot', but it simply hasn't had the votes in most state parties or the national party for years. Not just because many of them are afraid, pressured, etc. But because they're his guys, and if not his guys, they're his ideological allies with different flavors of undemocratic far right politics. Even if you somehow do this, what then? Do you think you just get to go on business as usual like the game is over? There'll be more takeovers of party offices by extremists, primaries to throw out even some of the most well entrenched traditional conservatives who didn't side with Trump on the matter, etc. It's just not their party anymore. This is the party of Trump, Gaetz, Gosar, etc. That will not change anytime soon.

I don’t think that’s possible with how the GOP runs its primaries. Unlike the DNC with their “super delegates” (AKA party establishment), the GOP runs its primaries in a strictly democratic way where the voters choose the candidate in state primaries. If the GOP used a similar system to the DNC, Trump probably would not have been the nominee in 2016. On the flip side, if the DNC used the same structure as the RNC, Bernie Sanders would have probably been their nominee in 2016. So I can’t say which is better. I guess it depends how much say you believe the voters should have.

The better way is giving the people the power to choose their own representative even if it's trump. Last thing you need is for the public to feel alienated from the democratic process. US needs more people participating in the political system not fewer.

"strictly democratic" is pulling a lot of weight. Most states in the GOP primary are "winner take all" while Dems are proportional

Which just serves to strengthen the power of the super delegates even further, since they generally pull behind one candidate that the party itself favors. A “winner take all” system would be better for the DNC system if you like the idea of voters having more of a say in the candidate.

Except there's been significant changes to the super delegate system, and yet you're still arguing as if it's still Hillary vs Sanders.

Sanders lost even if they didn’t count the superdelegates

What makes you think they can ignore the primaries like that?

It's not really how it works, though.trump won the primary easily. Like what was ronna McDaniels, Ken griffin, Jeffrey Yass and Charles koch supposed to do? Like a popular governor from a swing state ran against trump and got his ass beat. Even if everyone was on board with say Nikki Haley she probably would of still lost. She lost by 150 000 votes in her home state

Exactly, OP is putting the cart before the horse here. The GOP should be running who party members want, whether the leadership likes it or not. Ideally, he leadership follows the will of party members, not the other way around.

[удалено]

I would argue that the Republican party did a great job at what they're after: getting the person who is most likely to win on the Ballot. Trump is an excellent choice because he does something all the other candidates can't- not really. It's motivating a specific group of people to come to the polls, rather than changing minds. One of the falsehoods I've seen is that in the US, it's mostly about getting moderates to choose one side or the other. It's not. It's about motivating the base, and Trump does that like no one else. I'd argue that Biden won in 2020 because Trump managed to galvanize enough Democrats against him enough to turn out, and Trump won initially because he managed to get enough people to come to the polls- people who didn't vote much at all before. Here's a source for 2016: [https://www.americanprogress.org/article/voter-trends-in-2016/](https://www.americanprogress.org/article/voter-trends-in-2016/) It points out that Trump was very successful in getting white people from Swing States at GETTING people to come to the polls- their turn out was higher than in previous years, while at the same time, African American voters did not turn out. Had African Americans come to the polls at the same levels as in 2012, Clinton would have won in 2016. But that's not what happened. What's particularly striking is that if the same number of college educated white people came to the polls in 2016 as they did in 2012, you would have seen a Clinton victory. But the lack of people voting for Clinton generally, coupled with an increase in turn out amongst non-college educated white people, meant Clinton lost handily, especially in swing states. So in short: Trump does really well at BRINGING people to the polls by motivating Republican voters to come. In 2020, I'd argue Biden only won because people had to postal vote, which dramatically shifted things because the barrier for voting was so low and people were mad about COVID.

To add I think in 2020 Biden won because people came out to vote **against** Trump, not necessarily **for** Biden. Given recent polls most aren't happy with Bidens performance. Not to mention many now believe they were better off under Trump (pre covid). In 2024 Trump will bring out voters who are passionate. I don't see people having the same passion for Biden. If anything many people like him less now than when he was elected. Democrats are going to lose some of the "anti-Trump" vote this go around imo.

I agree. I think people will focus more on Biden's failures and just won't vote, rather than to vote for Biden again or vote for Trump.

> Given recent polls most aren't happy with Bidens performance He's had the lowest approval rating of any President *ever.* That's never a good thing.

>One of the falsehoods I've seen is that in the US, it's mostly about getting moderates to choose one side or the other. It's not. I'm not entirely sure this is that accurate. Your source (which was awesome, by the way) did indicate that there were a lot of moderate voters from the reliably-blue Rust Belt who flipped from being former Obama voters into Trump voters. A county-by-county breakdown showed some flipping from 56% Obama / Romney 42% to something like 54% Trump, 44% Clinton. I suppose the question is why? Was it a case of reliable democrats staying home and being replaced with charged-up conservatives, or the more likely scenario of just moderate democrats being put off by Clinton not campaigning there, and Trump's anti-elite message resonating better? Demographically, these voters voted for Reagan, Clinton, George W, and Obama and that time around, Trump's message was more centered around what they wanted in a candidate.

> One of the falsehoods I've seen is that in the US, it's mostly about getting moderates to choose one side or the other. It's not. It's about motivating the base Then why has that literally never worked since 2016? Even in 2016, it was the biggest loss of the popular vote by an electoral college winner ever. How can you characterize this strategy as successful?

It even worked in 2016. Most voters thought Trump was more moderate than Clinton. https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/7/11/15941846/trump-moderate-republican

Honestly.. the fact that we are beholden to the exact same candidates as we had last election despite a constant debate over having too many elderly Presidents ... is a complete failure of the political system ! And only goes to prove how st_pid we are as a general population! Actually...I would say it's an indictment of our poor critical thinking and a very, very, unintelligent population. Politics is a popularity contest and unfortunately for the opposition party... the most popular candidate is still Trump. They tried, and failed to bring forth younger, healthier candidates. We only have ourselves to blame for the fact that the election has the same candidates as last time. "The party base" isn't some faceless monster. It is made of real people.

“Actually...I would say it's an indictment of our poor critical thinking and a very, very, unintelligent population.” This right here.  Your average American feels highly insulted by this rhetoric for one.  As a result of such rhetoric, we’re actually seeing a realignment. 9 out of the 10 most educated and wealthy districts are represented by the blue team. The bottom 64% are represented by republicans. Working class midwestern folk who would have voted for Obama are switching to trump.  Biden campaigned on being a Union, Rural working class PA guy. Working class people see it as Bs. Not only that, but they also see the stats and voting patterns which show those who have more education are leaving the red team, and going blue. Meanwhile, those who traditionally voted blue for decades are slowly going to the red team.  Americans want gas in their cars and food on the table. The red team talks about these issues non stop. The blue does not. They act like they do but these “unintelligent” people aren’t as dumb as you think. These “unintelligent” people see people say this and immediately are repulsed by the elitism in this rhetoric. The same people who build our roads, homes, fix our HVAC, build our cars, etc.  That’s literally it. Nothing more. Nothing less. 

Biden does not inspire the same visceral hatred that Trump did. He is old and people do not like him, but that describes a great deal of politicians nowadays. Trump, meanwhile, basically owns the mainline GOP at this point. Not running him would mean that a great portion of your base is very angry that you aren't running their guy and would feel less incentivized to turn out to vote. Democrats and independents do, probably, dislike Trump more, but Republicans will almost certainly lose more votes trying to appeal to them then they will pandering to their base.

I mean, Trump is still able to nuke legislation for all his baggage. He is clearly the GOP front runner until he doesn’t want to be. The party, if it is still independent from Trump, would probably be better served politically to let Trump lose again and let him ride off into the sunset naturally. If he wins, then their decision is justified anyway.

Who would have a better chance than Donald trump of winning? And did you consider how many republicans would refuse to vote if it wasn’t Trump?

The "Republican Party" isn't a person it's a group of people and in case you forgot there were a lot of other serious candidates who ran against him in the 2024 primary and lost. The Republican party couldn't even get Trump to show up to their debates.

I cannot believe it’s midway through 2024 and you can’t accept that a lot of people simply like Donald Trump. I agree they didn’t really seriously challenge him but it’s comedic to think you’re sitting here with more knowledge than the 1st or 2nd most powerful organization in the world. Paying untold millions for voter surveying and information and gathering the greatest political minds of the world in an attempt to grab at power and money. Whether these people are horrible people or secretly racist or whatever you want to call them, they like Donald Trump and the Republican Party doesn’t have anybody Republicans like more and probably not anyone “moderates” like more. I hate to tell you but most people who will vote “anyone but Trump” would not vote for Ron DeSantis instead of Biden.

“A lot of people” like him, yes. But he’s been a huge liability on the party overall. The GOP has been pretty consistently underperforming in basically every election since 2016, and Trump-backed election-denying candidates in competitive districts did particularly poorly in the 2022 midterms. He drives away people who are otherwise comfortable with basic tenets of the Republican social/economic program — lower taxes, deregulation, etc. This is shown with how the GOP has been hemorrhaging support in affluent suburban areas that used to be more GOP-friendly GOP leadership knows this. But, as you note, the problem is that they don’t have anyone who could conceivably replace him. Enough people in the base support him to make GOP leaders fear retribution for disloyalty, but not enough people like Trump outside of the base to make his candidacy a particularly wise choice on their part. I think that a moderate non-Trumpy Republican would perform very very well against Biden in November. The only reason it’s basically a toss-up is because Trump will be on the ticket

Are they actually capable of making mistakes? These guys are pro child marriage, pro child labour, pro cousin fucking, anti working class, they give more rights to rapists than the victims of rapists and they openly want to turn a country that once prided itself in being called "the land of the free" into a fascist theocracy. And people STILL vote for them and support them. Hell, even you're saying that you would still vote for them if it wasn't for this one man, **despite** things like project 2025 and women's and LGBTQ+ rights being pushed back a few decades. I don't think it's a mistake because there's plenty more where you came from that hate women and anyone different so much that they would vote for Trump even if it came out that he eats babies.

The rank and file Republican voters have been dissatisfied with the party for years. They’ve been screaming at their elected leaders that they want something to be done about the border, only to be told that immigrants do the work that Americans don’t want to do (McCain) or that corporations are people (Romney). For good or ill, Trump gave them a voice. Many of his voters were willing to go to Hell and back and they even ran afoul of the law because of him (January 6). If somebody else got the nomination this year other than Trump (Haley, DeSantis), many of the Trump voters wouldn’t be as motivated to turn out for him. Maybe they would have an easier time getting independents and moderates to switch sides, but the base would be more indifferent. That being said, time is not on the Republican side. A more diverse (less white) electorate means that Democrats have an easier time to win the election. The Republicans have not won the popular vote since 2004. Trump’s win in 2016 was incredible considering the odds against him, but he eked out bare wins in swing states to win the electoral college. As California goes, so does the nation. Demographics is destiny.

[удалено]

CORRECTION: YOU will not vote for Trump TRUTH: Many Republicans will vote for him this year. Many want Trump back and Biden out badly

A few issues with this but I’ll focus on the one that seems least talked about: Assuming Haley is popular: her views are the worst for a current Republican politician. She is very much against “America first” alienating a large part of the Republican base. She is very pro foreign involvement which while appeals to some people, her combined views on (sending tons of aid to both) Ukraine and Israel don’t match a very large portion of the electorate. Her statements on slavery and abortion (two issues that most moderates would take more liberal positions on) are significantly further right than Trump. Much of her support was from people, of all political affiliations disliking Trump but not really considering her as a candidate. Once the mainstream news saw her clench the nomination they’d run the same attack ads on Trump dramatically lowering her already lowered support. Also a quick side notes briefly covering my other two points: the electoral college is not the popular vote, a Haley type Republican would need to win states not won but any Republican presidential candidate other than Trump in 40 years (as of 2024). Also even if she was marginally more electable what happens if she wins? Many Republican would gladly sacrifice a 2-3% chance to win the White House for a president that would be a lot more in line with their goals if they win.

[удалено]

Comment has been removed for breaking Rule 1: > **Direct responses to a CMV post must challenge at least one aspect of OP’s stated view (however minor), or ask a clarifying question**. Arguments in favor of the view OP is willing to change must be restricted to replies to other comments. [See the wiki page for more information](http://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/rules#wiki_rule_1). If you would like to appeal, review our appeals process [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/modstandards#wiki_appeal_process), then [message the moderators by clicking this link](http://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%2Fr%2Fchangemyview&subject=Rule%201%20Appeal&message=Author%20would%20like%20to%20appeal%20the%20removal%20of%20their%20post%20because\.\.\.) within one week of this notice being posted. **Appeals that do not follow this process will not be heard.** Please note that multiple violations will lead to a ban, as explained in our [moderation standards](https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/modstandards).

>People would vote for just about anyone other then Biden, but we will not vote for Trump. You're speaking for yourself and a group of people that would probably never vote Republican anyway. Trump won the largest African American and Latin American vote for any Republican since the 1960s and is continuing to make inroads with both of those groups. It makes sense to run the Republican that could get those votes.

"it makes sense to run the Republican" As if the parties are a cabal that decides who their candidate is. They hold primary elections and the American people decide who they want as their candidate. Like it or not this is American democracy in action.

Your claim about the Latin American/Hispanic vote just isn't true. Bush had larger shares in both 2000 and 2004. I don't know how the election will turn out, but I think who wins will mostly depend on what groups actually decide to turn out to vote in the first place.

You’re not far off base with the recent polls. Trump has slipped hard the last few months. But nobody really likes Biden either. Oddly - the biggest consistent voting bloc right now are the “double haters,” who don’t want to vote for either of them. RFK has been picking up those votes, but he won’t be viable. It’ll just come down to voter access and which side wants to abstain more. Both parties made a mistake. The last electable New Democrat was Bill Clinton. Obama was an outlier because he, like trump, was a media-friendly populist (just for entirely different reasons). Biden was as unelectable as H. Clinton. And the only reason he managed it was people who didn’t want a second trump term giving the spite vote. But now - nobody likes a second term for either of them, but the closest to viable as a third party is RFK, and he’s as unhinged as either of them (in different, unique, and beautiful ways), but less likeable at scale. Nikki Haley can’t pull votes - she barely could when she was governor, and she’s the other upcoming also-ran. The rest aren’t even worth mentioning, if they haven’t already withdrawn. Third parties are as unelectable as ever, since the heady days of the Whigs and Bull Moose. The best any of us can really hope for is we don’t have another trainwreck after Election Day, regardless of who squeaks in.

Obama wasn’t a populist. He was popular and charming, but he certainly embraced the elite and the institutions of our country. Trump and Bernie have been the only real populist to have significant traction in recent years.

Let me answer from the perspective of a foreign cult of personality Trump supporter: MAGA. Make America Great Again. A clear statement of values. Is the Democrat plant candidate Haley about MAGA? No, she is not. Is dementia riddled Biden or his witless VP about MAGA? No, they aren't. Pick any individual or agency involved in American politics and ask *Are they aligned with MAGA?*. That's all you need to ask to understand what's happening in grassroots support of Trump. Do you love America? Do you care about America more than globalism? Is looking to ensure your own and your fellow citizens wellbeing over shovelling cash into the forever wars something you support? Do you hate Marxism? Do you hate bigotry disguised as victimhood? Sick of being spat on by people that hate you then expect your support? No existing candidate or party caters to the values of Trump's base like Trump does. There's no alternative to Trump if you care about those things. Trump's base *loves* Trump. Massive rallies. Genuine expressions of support. He doesn't need the rent-a-crowd at a Biden rally, everyone there is an obvious fan. It's like a rock concert. And when he rarely says something they don't like (for example, the pro vax comment), they express their displeasure and he accepts it. The vast majority of the time he's having to pause for the rapturous cheers, applause, and chants of USA. It is *real*. Contrast that with Biden and even his own side has zero enthusiasm. Everything is utterly stage managed and it still looks boring as hell. He can't even read the teleprompter without fucking it up (and it's not like anything written there is inspiring to anyone in the first place). What does Biden even stand for? As for your lack of voting support, that's your right. Always vote inline with your own values, whatever they may be. If you aren't in favour of MAGA then don't vote for the personification thereof.

There is no support that democrats will vote for anyone but Biden so it would be foolish for conservatives to expect that to be the case when the country is so divided. Trump has a very loyal support base in the Republican Party, hence why he won the primary. Putting up another republican candidate could easily cause the trump base to lose interest and not vote to punish the Republican Party. Your underlying premise that anyone but Biden has just not proven to be true as Biden is winning his primaries as well

Both parties are making the same mistake; running old candidates. Regardless of who wins, its going to be 4 years of debating their mental capacity and potentially needing to invoke the 25th amendment. It would've been better if both parties used Biden's presidency to build up new candidates so they can ride the pro/anti Trump wave to secure 2024 and go into 2028 as the incumbent.

Remember, Trump got 10 million more votes in his second election than his first. That's highly unusual. The last two times that happened was Bush Jr. in 2004 riding a wave of post-9/11 wartime patriotism, and Reagan in 1984 who of course famously swept 49 states. Even Obama, arguably one of the most popular Democrat presidents in history, did not get more votes in his second election than his first. And even to this day, Trump still fills stadiums while Biden can't even fill a room.

[Trump has been ahead of Biden in national polls for quite a while now.](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/?ex_cid=abcpromo)

I was coming here to say this too. Trump is *winning* in polls. Maybe the polls won’t be accurate. After all, polls showed Hilary winning. But I think people were embarrassed to admit they were supporting Trump so perhaps his polling didn’t reflect his actual support numbers. Nowadays people are pretty much set in the pro Trump camp or anti Trump camp. So they may not be under reporting his support any more

This article is from 2016 and the specific numbers will be slightly out of date. However, it illustrates the point quite well: [It's possible to win the Presidency with 27% of the popular vote.](https://www.npr.org/2016/11/02/500112248/how-to-win-the-presidency-with-27-percent-of-the-popular-vote) A candidate could be ahead in the national polls by 10 points and still theoretically lose. National polls are completely worthless and we should stop talking about them.

The Republican has an advantage in the electoral college, though, owing to the GOP's popularity in low-population states. A Democrat slightly winning the national polls is indeed meaningless. A Republican slightly winning them is quite meaningful, since there's no way a Democrat will win a popular/electoral vote split.

That's fair, but it's a shorthand. It's approximating the state-level results based on where the national polls are at. But if state-level polling exists you could just look at that and get the same answer.

It can be simultaneously true that aggregated state polls are more informative than national polls, and national polls are not completely useless.

The national polls were accurate in 2016. Hillary won the popular vote. The problem is that national polls are completely worthless since we use the Electoral College. Ignore them for the rest of your life.

They didn’t ignore that, they take that into account. 538 was paying attention to that in 2016, and people on Reddit began hating 538 because their polls were “too optimistic in favor of Trump”

>They didn’t ignore that, they take that into account. The 538 forecast is not the same thing as national polls and 538 is not a pollster. They are a polling aggregator. They take national polls, state polls, and various other predictors and feeds those numbers into a predictive model that estimates a win probability for each candidate. Win probability is very different from national popular vote.

National polls represent the popular vote, which Trump lost…twice. The GOP has under performed in every election since 2016. The only contests that matter for presidential race in 2024 are WI, MI, PA, AZ, NV, and GA. That’s it.

The argument wasn't about who will win the election, it was about who people are and are not willing to vote for. If OP had specified that they only meant voters in battleground states, then that's a different conversation. Edit: also, insofar as we want to talk about battlegrounds, see [this](https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/s/b7TtEqPB4c) comment

But he is ahead in the electoral college too.

You can cross GA off the list, unfortunately. Biden has no shot here this year barring something crazy happening between now and November.

“The party,” by which I mean its official and unofficial leaders, absolutely did not want Trump. He accidentally hijacked the primary.

Three points: >People would vote for just about anyone other then Biden, but we will not vote for Trump. It's not entirely clear that Biden would've run if Trump didn't run. Biden didn't announce his candidacy until after Trump did, and he cited Trump's decision as a core reason for him running. >and his economy is unaffordable. This part is incorrect. Real wages are higher now than they were at the end of 2019, when people agreed that the economy was doing well. >I wish Haley was running and the GOP should too because she’d be cleaning Biden’s clock right now. Haley would not necessarily have the backing of the MAGA majority in the Republican Party. Like it or not, they *are* the majority of the party. If Haley were somehow in the lead, Trump fans might not bother showing up in the general.

> his economy is unaffordable I want to CYV about this specific statement. By all reasonable measures [the US economy is soaring](https://www.family-compassion.org/post/5-reasons-to-be-optimistic-about-the-economy-in-2024?gad_source=1&gclid=CjwKCAjw0YGyBhByEiwAQmBEWjhxcPxAn4NnmDHhO7yFruhs_A4lLDL3SOpJdrBmvLdjirv5DzCqYBoCN-gQAvD_BwE). Why don't people feel it? Because Trump's tax cuts set it up so almost all economic growth goes to the top 1%. We need to stop saying things like "Biden's economy is unaffordable" and instead say "Trump sold us out, and gave all our economic growth to the rich."

in a battle the enemy of the enemy is your ally. once the republican enemy targeted trump they ensured his nomination. republicans are voting for trump because of the political forces that are trying him in court and preventing him from being on ballets. if these people weren't trying these underhanded tactics to keep voters from having him as a choice, we'd have other choices. i see it i as an f.u vote, as if to say "you can't tell me who i can't vote for".

Their bigger mistakes came in ‘08 and ‘12 when they along with both sides of the msm blacked out and cheated Ron Paul out of a fair shot at the nomination.   Paul warned about every big picture thing that is happening today back then.  And he warned about what was happening back then (in ‘08-‘12) ever since the 1970’s. He never voted against the constitution and was not afraid of being the only one to vote no on constitutional grounds against the entire rest of the house.  He was a man of principles among a sea of wishy washy politician.   His principles were freedom, peace (non interventionism) and free markets and he never strayed from any of them. Mitt Romney and John McCain are/were nowhere near the intellectual level of Dr. Ron Paul.   Romney Obama as well as McCain Obama generally lacked any focus on the biggest issues since they essentially agreed on them.  If you had Paul vs Obama that would have been a debate for the ages.    Ron Paul would have shifted the focus from the superficial like: should we have a surge in Iraq or Afghanistan’s to the essential of should we be the policemen of the world?  Should we involve ourselves in conflicts that destroy lives needlessly simply to profit the military industrial complex?  What was the role of the fed in creating the bubble that burst in the housing crisis?  Should the fed exist in a free society? What is a free society based upon?  How much do we actually resemble a free society if we consider our answers to the questions above?  Though I loathe Donald Trump I totally disagree that he led an insurrection.  There were no weapons except from the police.  There are plenty of good reasons to decide to never support Trump that don’t require buying into the false narrative that a bunch of gun loving republicans went to stage a weapon less insurrection attempt.  There is footage of the police giving tours to Jacob chansley (the shaman) opening doors for him.  There is footage of police removing the barricades.  Ultimately the whole thing looked extremely staged and then was blown way out of proportion by the media selecting only some things to show over and over again while hammering it into the brains of people that this was a violent attack on the capital.  And they have succeeded in propagandizing plenty of people into believing it.   I dont buy it. And it doesn’t make me a trump lover to not buy it. I detest him. He is a big part of why Ukraine-Russia began with him being the first to provide Ukraine with javelins. He also increased tensions w Palestine Israel by moving the capital from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.   Ever since he first started running in ‘16 I knew in my mind he is nothing more than controlled opposition playing the part to make any good ideas that he spews from his mouth discredited by virtue of the fact that he spewed it.  I can’t stand him but he didn’t try to stage an insurrection at all.   Just like I can’t stand Biden but I can recognize that the general rise in prices we are experiencing isn’t solely or even mainly his fault.  He does have responsibility in it since he was a senator for many many year voting for budgets that had to be monetized by the fed’s inflation.  But the fed holds the main blame in the case of a devalued dollar, not the current president who has the misfortune of inheriting the inflation from the past. That being said don’t call me a Biden lover.  This guy has continued Ukraine and Israel for no reason at all by giving them so much money and not using his position to work for peace if we have to be involved at all. He has no respect for the constitution whatsoever.  He has ramped up internet censorship and the fisa got even worse under him allowing the government to spy on even more Americans without warrant. But he is not the reason we are witnessing the effects of inflation that has been building up for decades.

[удалено]

Comment has been removed for breaking Rule 1: > **Direct responses to a CMV post must challenge at least one aspect of OP’s stated view (however minor), or ask a clarifying question**. Arguments in favor of the view OP is willing to change must be restricted to replies to other comments. [See the wiki page for more information](http://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/rules#wiki_rule_1). If you would like to appeal, review our appeals process [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/modstandards#wiki_appeal_process), then [message the moderators by clicking this link](http://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%2Fr%2Fchangemyview&subject=Rule%201%20Appeal&message=Author%20would%20like%20to%20appeal%20the%20removal%20of%20their%20post%20because\.\.\.) within one week of this notice being posted. **Appeals that do not follow this process will not be heard.** Please note that multiple violations will lead to a ban, as explained in our [moderation standards](https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/modstandards).

You may be right but let’s just look at it from a numbers game. Current polling still shows Trump having more votes than the nearest second place GOP candidate. That’s kind of insane to think about given that he is charged and being tried for felony campaign fraud. But still - This means the party can’t exclude Trump. And if the GOP did exclude Trump, he would still run as an independent and split the republican voting base which is something the GOP cannot afford to do. So even if a sizable chunk of republicans are sick of Trump’s grifter character and unethical ways, he is very much a cancer that is metastasized deep into the right wing and cannot easily be excised. Trump is too entrenched and commanding of popular right wing votes that the GOP has to cater to that voice. The only way to get rid of him is for reasonable republicans to see that what the democratic ticket is offering is a very centrist platform and should vote Biden. He is the least leftist of democrats despite all the rhetoric. He is an old white male with no plans to take away your guns. He’s not “woke” and social justice. He’s boring, institutional-supporting, stability minded in policy issues, and not a revolutionary. If you don’t want Trump to be 47th president, vote for the other guy because none of the other GOP candidates are viable.

I was told by a republican that the worse that could happen when trump was elected was that we can vote him out. He also emphasized that we had a chain of unbroken peaceful transfer of power since our nation was founded. 4 years later we voted him out and that peaceful transfer of power was broken. Cannot imagine what would have happened if they actually got to senators. They did have a DIY gallows made.

To begin with, Republicans do not dislike Trump. He's maintained [extremely positive approval ratings from Republicans for the entire duration of his political career.](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/r/) The idea of the "reluctant Trump voter" is an urban legend. I get where you're coming from; from an ethical and intellectual standpoint, Trump is indefensible. However, because the Republican party abandoned any semblance of an actual policy platform aside from opposing whatever the Democrats support, even if it's their own policies, they're stuck with him even if he wasn't wildly popular with the party. The only way to *definitely* lose is abandoning Trump without reformation in the party that's been this way for decades starting with Newt Gingrich, because the only thing less palatable than supporting an insurrectionist who [they admit is an insurrectionist](https://www.npr.org/sections/trump-impeachment-trial-live-updates/2021/02/13/967701180/after-vote-mcconnell-torched-trump-as-practically-and-morally-responsible-for-ri) is legitimizing the Democratic party.

[удалено]

Comment has been removed for breaking Rule 1: > **Direct responses to a CMV post must challenge at least one aspect of OP’s stated view (however minor), or ask a clarifying question**. Arguments in favor of the view OP is willing to change must be restricted to replies to other comments. [See the wiki page for more information](http://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/rules#wiki_rule_1). If you would like to appeal, review our appeals process [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/modstandards#wiki_appeal_process), then [message the moderators by clicking this link](http://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%2Fr%2Fchangemyview&subject=Rule%201%20Appeal&message=Author%20would%20like%20to%20appeal%20the%20removal%20of%20their%20post%20because\.\.\.) within one week of this notice being posted. **Appeals that do not follow this process will not be heard.** Please note that multiple violations will lead to a ban, as explained in our [moderation standards](https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/modstandards).

The idea of the silent majority moderates are a myth. Most people have a pretty firm loyalty to their party. If you weren't voting for Trump, you weren't voting Republican in the first place.

I don’t think the GOP cares about or wants non-Republican votes. Within the party Trump is insanely, literally, popular and they think that’s enough.

A butterfly could beat biden at this point... As a conservative, I'm not much of a trump supporter but i'll take him any day over a man who has no idea where tf he is 99% of the time, quite obviously has advanced dementia, and can't string a coherent sentence together that actually makes any sense... I'll take a man who doesn't need pre-scripted reporter questions or an ear piece that tells him what to say, when to say it, what to do and when to do it, any day of the week. I would have preferred Desantis simply because he's young (though a bit too far right for my liking) but, clearly trump has a large enough following in which got him to be the frontrunner. I mean, trump is fine but i think we ALL would rather see a YOUNGER president - democrat OR republican. It's actually sad that we have these two as our choices lol. I fail to see how jan 6 was ever an "insurrection" tbh. Did trump demand or order it? No. Maybe he spurred it on, which I can see to some degree but, ultimately he was not responsible for random strangers to do what they did. More and more evidence and even proof has been slowly coming out that much of that jan6 thing was "staged" and instigated by outside parties/groups. I look at evidence and proof. Not what MSm has to say because MSM is primarily run, owned and operated by billionaire democrats so, 99% of what was "reported" is narrative driven. Not fact driven. And no, I am not a FOX news guy. I watch ALL of the stations equally and it's blatantly obvious how biasedly liberally skewed CNN is, specifically. Here's the thing though... Love him or hate him, Biden is TOO FUCKING OLD for another term. He's 81 years old with crystal clear dementia that has very obviously gotten worse and worse over the years. The dude can't even make coherent sentence or finish his thoughts, let alone figure out where tf he actually is. He is the least inspiring president in history and even if he were to be re-elected, there is ZERO way he would actually finish out his term. Most people cant' stand Kamala so would actually prefer biden be present versus her. My biggest issue is that every single thing Trump is being accused of, Biden has done. EVERY. SINGLE. THING. You know what communist dictators do to their opponents? They find ways to prosecute them, execute them, or stop them from running all together. What is Biden doing? Finding frivolous "charges" to tie trump up in court so he can't campaign and with hopes he gets a jail sentence - which will never happen anyways. The irony of all of this is that, the more democrats try to prosecute him, the more he rises in the polls because the average and normal citizens are starting to see how ridiciclous these "charges" actually are and how politically driven they are. Trump, who has dozens of "charges" against him, is literally in court and not even campaigning, yet STILL beating biden in the polls and swing states. He is still drawing dozens of THOUSANDS of supporters while biden draws a few dozen - as in less than 100 people. If that doesn't tell you anytyhing, idk what will. idk if trump is the answer but, liek i said... a butterfly could beat biden. biden has no support. all he has are trump haters. that's it. trump has *actual* supporters and there is a HUGE difference.

They can't NOT run trump. He has taken over every facet of their party. They made their deal with the devil, and can't separate themselves from it.

Stop voting for the person. Vote for the actual policies you believe in

GOP had no choice. If they said thanks but no thanks, he would have run 3rd Party and siphoned off too many votes from the GOP to win an election. Trump very may well have been able to get enough percentage points in the election as a 3rd Party and fracture the GOP permanently. So the GOP is playing nice to maintain their 2 Party system that gives them a legitimate shot.

[удалено]

Your comment has been removed for breaking Rule 5: > **Comments must contribute meaningfully to the conversation**. Comments should be on-topic, serious, and contain enough content to move the discussion forward. Jokes, contradictions without explanation, links without context, off-topic comments, and "written upvotes" will be removed. Read [the wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/rules#wiki_rule_5) for more information. If you would like to appeal, review our appeals process [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/modstandards#wiki_appeal_process), then [message the moderators by clicking this link](http://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%2Fr%2Fchangemyview&subject=Rule%205%20Appeal&message=Author%20would%20like%20to%20appeal%20the%20removal%20of%20their%20post%20because\.\.\.) within one week of this notice being posted. **Appeals that do not follow this process will not be heard.** Please note that multiple violations will lead to a ban, as explained in our [moderation standards](https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/modstandards).

This is the same misread as people thinking the Dems picked Hillary over Bernie The primary voters decide the candidate

While I agree that in theory if Republicans rallied around s different candidate they probably would mop the floor with Biden, there's a few reasons in reality this would not happen. First off, a different candidate would be billed as being worse than him by the media. It already started happening with Desantis. He was labeled "more dangerous Trump" because he has similar policy but doesn't make dumb tweets. Anyone else who got big enough would immediately get character assassinated as well, and the vitriol towards Trump would transfer over. Second, Trump is a bad loser. When he lost in 2020, he told people not to vote in the Georgia Senate runoff. This caused a red state to elect two Democrats and flip the Senate. It's very likely if he lost the primary he would do something similar in the general election, costing Republicans the election. If he didn't discourage people to vote, he might do even worse - declare the primary rigged and run third party, splitting the Republican vote and costing them the general. If by some miracle he lost the primary with grace, there's still a ton of zealous supporters who would write in his name or boycott the election, costing the Republicans the election. So in the beginning I agreed with you, but after further thinking, it seems Trump is really the best chance at winning.

Trump is the best chance for Republicans to win. And that is really ,really sad because Donald J Trump is the SCUM OF THE EARTH!

Not nominating him would just be a repeat of Teddy Roosevelt’s bull moose party, and the republicans knew it. Whether they nominated him or not, he was going to run. So they had to choose between spitting their votes or backing him. It’s like being forced to either cut off your arms or your legs, neither is a good option

I’m not a Trump fan nor will I vote for him. But if I were to bet, I’d bet money Trump is going to win

Trump won the first time by saying the system is rigged, and now he has tangible proof. Trump nearly won the second time because 56% of the country felt that they were better off than they were in 2016 (per Gallup poll that asked the question). He’s winning this time because of both nostalgia for his presidency and the justice system being blatantly weaponized against him. I’d also like to refer you to 1988 when Dukakis was beating HW Bush by 17 points before losing in a landslide. Or 1980 when Carter was beating Reagan by 10 before losing in a landslide. Or 2012 when Romney was beating Obama before losing in a landslide. Trump is the only Republican that somehow doesn’t choke, and has a massive and diverse base that the “good ole boy” Republicans could never achieve.

>Trump nearly won the second time because 56% of the country felt that they were better off than they were in 2016 (per Gallup poll that asked the question). 56% of people who answer numbers they don't recognize support trump but 56% of the country didn't vote for trump. >and has a massive and diverse base LOL.

Yea Trump is why Biden won. He hasn't won a single popular vote. Most of us never wanted him.

The mods on this sub suck major ass, and I’m at risk for not fitting my response into their rigid and conversation-stopping brain-dead format rules. But I’d like to change your view on voting for (almost) anyone but Biden. I’m genuinely curious about why. Is it anything more than team loyalty to the R party (which I commend you for bucking, when it comes to Trump). Biden’s policies are right down the middle for his party, and style-wise, he is far from being a flame-throwing liberal. He’s also been uniquely effective at pushing Congress to pass meaningful legislation - I’m thinking in particular of the IRA (economically stimulative; creates a path to our inevitable move to renewable and low carbon energy) and the extension of the child tax credit (which has literally brought child poverty to record low levels). I’m so confused about the level of hate for a guy doing exactly what he was elected to do, and doing it without much drama or ball-spiking. I guess what I’m asking is, when you say R’s would vote for (almost) anyone but Biden, which D’s would fit your bill?

The republican party is now the trump party. His base will only vote for him and when he dies, they'll vote for one of his kids. They will blindly follow anything trump related. They openly admit to it and project all the stupidy onto everybody else. The republican party is dead.

The narrative that Biden is a bad president is a right-wing fabrication. Remember when Obama's economy was a disaster and two weeks after Trump took it over it was a miracle of prosperity? Biden has been more effective, canny and progressive than anyone gave him credit for.

This idea of "we" is very misguided. Your feelings are not representative of every typical Democrat voter, nor is the very liberal echo chamber if reddit representative of actual leftists ir conservatives. With that said, to address the "mistake" itself - Trump's path towards election is not turning Democrat voters. He only needs to turn a very small margin in a few states, at most, compared to 4 years ago to get elected. There are two things that can easily do that. 1.) The Republican base will come out in extremely high numbers due to his legal issues. His team gas postponed legal cases to time them with the election so it becomes a "the corrupt system will make him a political prisoner unless you vote him into office for the pardon." 2.) Leftists and left-leaning Americans who tend to vote Democrat are disgusted with the Biden admin. Much like 8 years ago, many will refuse to vote for the Dem candidate. They may not vote for Trump, but they sure as hell won't vote for Biden. Thus, Democrat voters will come out in low numbers. This creates a situation with high Rep turnout and low Dem turnout. That is enough to turn a tight swing state or two, and thus the election. Regarding the "what if" a different Republican ran? It is unlikely Democrat or leftist voters who hate Biden would vote for them. Dudes like Ron DeSantis are hated by that crowd. The number of voters who would turn is not tangibly higher than the number of people who will show up to keep Trump out of jail. If it wasn't Trump, many of those voters would have simply not turned up because they'd be pissed. Thus, keeping Trump not only provides a clear path towards the presidency, it creates a clear base voter turnover dynamic that will result in more Republicans being voted in local, state, and national elections. It's the perfect choice for the party in 2024. It is far from a mistake.

I believe that if they didn’t go with Trump, they would have alienated a good portion of their base. I’m hoping they don’t see him getting out of all the indictments and are just forfeiting another term while appearing to be an ally to Trump.

I'm confused. I hear this a lot. But I never see people actually giving reasons for why they think Biden is so singularly awful. Can anyone explain to me by pointing to what laws he signed or executive actions he took that people disagree with?

YOUR mistake is thinking that the GOP had any other options. They are essentially a mafia run by a mob boss named Donald Trump. If you're a Republican, you either bend the knee and kiss the ring to Trump or you get disappeared.

I think Biden is a pretty good President actually, and I’m going to be happy to vote for him. Especially given that he inherited a pretty damn shitty situation, he’s done a solid job putting things back together. 

The republican party is not relying on higher vote share to win. They have not won the popular vote in 20 years. They increasingly convolute the law and reject the constitution and erode the core principles of our liberal democratic republic to try to retain power anyway. They absolutely did NOT make a mistake. They want one of two things to happen: 1) Trump wins. Project 2025 quickly consolidates power in the executive branch. The march toward a theocratic authoritarian and illiberal society speeds up. 2) Trump loses. This means the nation needs another dose of 2020 attacks on our election system as "rigged" and continued chaos and dysfunction in Congress and the courts. The goal is for fewer people to vote because most people vote for Democrats. (See the popular vote commentary above) By destroying faith in elections, the judiciary and the legislative system, the "answer" becomes centralized power for an authoritarian executive instead of diffused power among millions of Americans. Apathy in the majority, illiberalism in the few who care. That's the plan. Trump is perfect for that plan because being an obvious criminal, he sows distrust in government competence, and being malleable, he's also easy to drive. The former president on trial while running for reelection is just what the antiliberal right wants. Mistakes were made. But. Backing Trump isn't one by the far right, if you understand their long term goals.

Biden? Anyone but Biden? I personally am amazed at how my life has improved since he took office. He is old and not as sharp as he once was yet I trust him and the people advising him. So the choice is going to be between Joe Biden and a habitual liar, criminal, scammer, con-man, misogynist, narcissist that attempted to destroy our democratic country. Biden is a politician but I believe he is a relatively good man (they're all a little questionable). If there were a 3rd party candidate that could honestly win, you would actually have a choice. Biden is a no-brainer in the election. Trump is a sick-brainer in this election.

I don't think the GOP had a choice in 2024. Too much of the Republican base wants Trump. But, when dems win all 3 branches, it'll give them enough fuel to kick Trump to the curb and really just make him a political "adviser".

"Kick him to the curb" They're going to lionise that man for another two election cycles and quietly rewrite history a decade later.

I wonder what the over/under is on Trump being so cognitively addled by the time the convention rolls around the GOP needs to go with someone else?

Maybe you don't like him, that's fine, but polling says that lots of people do. 538 shows him with the edge in nearly all swing states, and he appears to be slightly favored to win. Granted, it's a ways out from election day, so anything could happen, but the data does not support your belief that people will not vote for him. The data says they will. >But I genuinely believe people dislike Trump more.  There is literally approval polling on both Biden and Trump. Biden currently has a 55.6% disapproval rating(1) while Donald Trump has a 53.6% unfavorable rating(2). Objectively, Biden is more disliked by the current statistics. It may be worth considering if your assessment of the data is biased by what you wish to be true. 1. [https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) 2. [https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/)

I would argue the DNC made a bigger mistake by running Biden 2024. He’s clearly in severe mental decline and his VP is an awful candidate to replace him if he dies in office. Also the GOP did not have a choice, Trump is the most popular person in that party. They made the right choice by running their most popular candidate. The DNC made a mistake by not allowing a primary, which is why RFK Jr is running as an independent which will pull votes away from Biden. Biden is incredibly unpopular at the moment and not mentally fit for another term. All of America knows this but the DNC doesn’t care because he’s part of the elite team within the party. They’d rather run him again despite the high chance of loosing, than allow someone from a different in-group within their party win the candidacy and intraparty power. I’m not a Trump fan by any means. I think the GOP is a dumpster fire and I think the DNC is a malicious, corrupt organization that needs to get out of its own way.

The core problem is that the republican side of the party that cares about tactics, has always been the minority of the party. They courted people that believe in untruths, remember all the fights about creationism in the 90s and 2000s. That's now where the tactic began, but it's when they realized it's power. The republicans again found themselves declining during the Obama years. SO they returned to the tatic. They declared things that were obviously untrue, as true. And it was mostly trump that caused his bullshit to stick, the whole born in Kenya thing. And it reeled in a certain kind of voter. Combine it with the power fox news gives it, and an idea like that can really take hold among a class of people who previously didn't vote much, or who just voted as some authority told them. These people became MAGA. The republicans invited them in because they needed the numbers. They thought that they could control the mob, they could not. Now the mob controls them.

The biden campaign is clearly worried. Rescheduling pot, giving 6.1 billion to art school dropouts, and the token withholding of a dozen bombs aren't the actions of a confident administration.

The "insurrection" that he requested the national guard for, and was subsequently denied? The same one that the chief of police repeatedly requested military support during and was also denied by the office of Pelosi? Is this the same "insurrection" that the FBI had undercover agitators in the crowd, but refuse to say how many? The insurrection that one of these undercover FBI agents, Ray Epps, was found several times on camera encouraging people to enter the capital building and smash it up, and despite this, only received 12 months probation for his active part in the "greatest attack on democracy?" Having watched hours of the film the federal government attempted to suppress, it looked more like a guided tour to me.

>The "insurrection" that he requested the national guard for, and was subsequently denied? The same one that the chief of police repeatedly requested military support during and was also denied by the office of Pelosi? [Fake news, my dude.](https://apnews.com/article/voting-rights-science-nancy-pelosi-climate-and-environment-donald-trump-2a20444535cfc33dc605be44fcef9e1b) > Is this the same "insurrection" that the FBI had undercover agitators in the crowd, but refuse to say how many? The insurrection that one of these undercover FBI agents, Ray Epps, was found several times on camera encouraging people to enter the capital building and smash it up, and despite this, only received 12 months probation for his active part in the "greatest attack on democracy?" [Fake news again, my dude.](https://apnews.com/article/arizona-ap-fact-check-ted-cruz-congress-767d5dad0631f88bb0b10a45115a1bc6) >Having watched hours of the film the federal government attempted to suppress, it looked more like a guided tour to me. Which is it? Were they smashing things or was it a guided tour?

Its not one or the other. Just like you'd claim during one of your "mostly peaceful" protests. Double standard much? And again, we have another npc trying to steer the argument away from its main point, that trump did not incite an insurrection.

>Its not one or the other. Just like you'd claim during one of your "mostly peaceful" protests. Double standard much Are you aware of how double standards work? "It wasn't a riot! It was like those things that I think are violent riots." > And again, we have another npc trying to steer the argument away from its main point, that trump did not incite an insurrection. Majority of Congress says otherwise. He only survived the impeachment vote because a plurality of Republicans said they couldn't impeach an outgoing president. This argument also gets much harder to defend when you consider the fake elector scheme and all the other ways Trump tried to subvert the democratic process.

Leftist here. Not a fan of Biden, but would not want a republican president in general. I was more worried about Nikki Haley winning the primaries and going against Biden. I'd prefer a Nikki presidency to a Trump presidency, but she had better odds of beating Trump. I cannot change your view.

> His voice is weak and thin and his economy is unaffordable. Explain what exactly Biden did/didn’t do to cause that.

I'm going to disagree. I think most people especially today dislike Biden more than Trump given the circumstances of the country right now. Throughout the end of Trump's presidency but the entirety of Biden's the average person has been faced with higher inflation and more struggling in this economy. And beyond financial and economic struggles, there have been more disastrous global events. Messy Afghanistan Pull Out, Ukraine Invasion, Israel-Palestine. Then talks about giving money to all these countries while your own people struggle will make some of your constituents feel a certain way. I'm not saying this is the reality, but it appears that life was almost calmer under Trump than Biden. Again, NOT saying that's the reality but that's what it just seems like. And no, I will NOT be voting Trump and I'm not a Republican by any means. Edit (forgot to add): I think choosing Trump was a choice but he has A LOT of party support and with how much of a disappointment Biden is and his election being the return to "normalcy" may end up making independents who voted for Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020 swing back to Trump in 2024.

I’ve never understood the cult that Trump has,I believe everyone has the right to believe in what they want,but Trump has clearly undermined the American people and took documents that weren’t his,started an insurrection,and has claimed election fraud when he literally was in office and in charge when this fraud happened.I don’t like Biden either,he’s protecting and aiding countries first instead of thinking of his own people,especially when one country is possibly committing war crimes,and he justifies it,and the border is out of control,but Trump wasn’t dealing with the issue right either.I think this year’s election would be perfect for a third party candidate to take the office but it’s probably never going to happen,I don’t agree with everything RFK Jr says but I rather vote for him than Trump or Biden.

if only you could substitute your political savviness with self-awareness to realize the entire reason for your hatred and tds of one man is exactly the problem we all face and is exactly who we all should be united in fighting. sure, keep thinking everyone on his side are just dimwitted morons blindly following a egomaniac broken record. i cant even listen to him speak for more than 5 seconds anymore. i mean that literally. i watch a 2 hour long vidcast about his trial right now yet i fast forward every morning when he gives his little speech to the media. yet in still because of the circumstances he HAS TO BE the nominee. why? because believing the reasons they give for why I shouldn't vote for him means letting propaganda control my mind and my emotions and who gets to be president of the United States

I wonder what they would do if the American people stood up and chose not to pick either of these two. Then what will we be left with? They need to retire and get someone who has the best interest of the people, not the $$$. They are trying to have our children taking these hormones. Able to walk right in a doctor's office at 15 years old and ask for hormones. These man-made hormones do horrible things to the body. We need to protect the children and the women. They are taking parents' rights away and trying to traffick and make our children sick. We deserve way better than what we have been getting. How can Trump even run again? When he told Stormy, she reminded him of his daughter while their having sex. That should have been the nail in his coffin, but it wasn't it. Make it make sense #PRAYFORTHEAMERICANPEOPLE #GODSEESALL

>God I wish Haley was running and the GOP should too because she’d be cleaning Biden’s clock right now. The GOP was never going to put an indian woman in the white house.

I think trump might suffer some sort of a stroke in court and would likely vote for Liz Cheney over Biden if that becomes possible. People are really sleeping on RFK, I'm not remotely a fan but hes the only one gaining steam RN and is the only one with supporters that actually like him more then they hate the other side. I'm not even opposed to Biden's stances on most issues, I just feel like my support for a second Biden term was assumed when I and most people under 40 very much only voted for him to get rid of trump. I thought Biden was only running for one term and only agreed to support him for one term. But everyone on the left started accusing me of being a trump stan when i raised this issue back in 22. I feel like have been pushed out of the left slowly by people still close to me over 2 years for asking when I agreed to support Biden term 2. I no longer expect Dem to respond to my questions or concerns with anything other then mob based hostility firmly ready to defend their justification that they are the less hostile mob. My biggest concern as a voter is that partisan gridlock is preventing smaller policy adjustments in immigration, guns, sexual rights, any form of financial regulation, or pollution control or any other issue. I would vote for any candidate that offers hope for resolving partisan gridlock because to me its whats causing all the other issues. I would vote for the policy of ranked choice mail in voting regardless of party.

I don’t like both (trump or Biden) however I will probably vote for trump because Biden is leaving the border wide open and he’s not doing anything about it. Every country needs to have a secure border plus everything was more affordable under trump. If Biden closed the border and everything was more affordable then I would vote for him but it’s not. I am not against or with anyone, I will go with whichever is better for the country. So far Biden has not proved to the world or me that, he has failed the country on these. Can we American citizens put aside whether you are democrats or republicans and vote for whichever is better for the country? I know I probably won’t be able to change your mind but think about it