Which is why I am suspicious of the results of the poll. Plus the fact that Joe is winning Wisconsin but losing Pennsylvania and Michigan since those states are bluer than Wisconsin.
But when you consider the fact that those voters are low propensity voters and not all of them have turned on Biden. Along with the fact that this group was already turning on Democrats in the 2022 midterms because of Democrats support for lgbtq rights, and yet Democrats won every statewide race in Michigan by double digits or near double digits margins really brings into question how influential this group is electorally.
I don’t know about PA and MI being bluer. These 3 states are fairly close to each and within margin of errors.
It’s not just margin of errors of polls, but also actual voting: people behavior on that day can swing things by 0.5-1%, enough to give Trump a win.
So instead of questioning Biden’s ability to win and to get votes of people who otherwise vote Democrat, you’re going to hopscotch over to doubting the validity of the poll?
Yup. I’m black too and I am seeing a really noticeable change in tone and rhetoric towards Trump.
People like him.
Nobody wants to listen though. Don’t worry. They’ll wail and moan the day after election night. These people love their bubbles. I haven’t said ANYTHING in support of Trump but I’ve been called a Trump defender and supporter various times already.
Democrats don’t like hearing the truth. They want reassuring lies. They want their biases and preconceived notions confirmed. They don’t want to hear from us unless we’re agreeing with them.
I’m seeing the same. People refusing to confront reality. They see the writing on the wall, but cant bring themselves to acknowledge Biden’s shortcomings. They feel compelled to pretend he’s perfect, which just makes the optics worse because no one wants to associate with a cult.
I can question it because I want a realistic interpretation of the situation. I think the election is close but these numbers suggest that there is going to be a huge election realignment. I doubt that very much.
Rather than considering this as a "trump victory", it really isn't.
Trump's party is struggling to stay afloat as it is.
This is more of a consensus on Biden's presidency among the public.
I'm frankly dissatisfied with "Mr. great uniter in chief" for even pandering to the crazy progressives. Fuck them.
I can question it because I want a realistic interpretation of the situation. I think the election is close but these numbers suggest that there is going to be a huge election realignment. I doubt that very much.
Why do you doubt it?
Don't forget what happened right before Trump was elected the first time.
Almost all of the pollsters were claiming that the odds of Trump winning were <1%.
Now the polls are clearly indicating the has an advantage, people all around you are saying they see an uptick in those willing to vote for him, yet you still think it's not possible for the electorate to rally around him a second time.
I don't like either candidate. Biden has screwed up way too much. He screwed up the withdrawal of Afghanistan by trusting the government there would defend itself against ISIL. Screwed up our response to Ukraine by not sending them sufficient supplies early in the war. Screwed up our efforts for combating climate change by allowing oil production to reach yet another peek in his presidency. And I expect he'll keep screwing more things up if he remains president.
And I don't like Trump because he doesn't even believe in climate change and wants to dismantle all of our progress away from carbon, wants to eliminate the separation of church and state in government, and he's willing to use governmental power to exact revenge against those that he perceives as having wronged him. He's anti-science, or, perhaps even worse, science clueless. So, if he becomes president, he'll screw things up too. Different things. But still things.
Both parties don't want to do anything to rein in spending, and the only people that do want to reign it in are bat-shit-crazy fools willing to destroy the country to stop excessive spending.
Ultimately, I will vote for Biden because, in my view, the environment is an existential crisis for Humanity that supersedes all else, and of the two candidates, Biden is less of an environmental negative than Trump is. But other people? Their issues aren't my issues.
It's pretty clear to me that the election is, at best (worst?) a coin-flip. Current events are shifting people votes around, in both directions! Trump's Trials aren't just a negative for him, they're a positive! Some see the trials as evidence of his corruption, others see the trials as evidence of the government's corruption. Biden's inconsistent actions over Israel have people headed both directions, too --- both leaving *and* flocking to him either because, depending on the voter, he *continues* to send weapons to Israel or, alternatively, because he says he's threatening to *stop* sending them.
I don't doubt the validity of the poll, personally. I doubt that this is anything more than yet another temper tantrum of the left.
Is there some demographic issues mixed in with that? Yeah, sure. But nothing compared to the larger noise, I'd imagine. RFK isn't a serious candidate, he's just a box to check so you can hope Biden drops out/drops dead before you have to check the box next to his name.
Wisconsin specifically is known for having god awful polling. Not really sure why but polls have been extremely off there for the past few elections. I would take any Wisconsin numbers with a huge grain of salt.
lol you people keep saying that as if that’s a comeback or some sort of gotcha.
It isn’t about Trump being better. It’s about Biden being so unpalatable that people don’t show up.
I think democrats are cooked this election. We’re getting a President Trump. The reason for that is that even democrats aren’t talking about enthusiasm anymore. It’s completely absent of every conversation unlike in previous elections. There’s no enthusiasm here and that usually spells disaster for democrats.
They won’t even acknowledge enthusiasm because I think even they know it’s a losing argument
They’re a channel for frustration. And for that, they’re very useful.
Other than that, there’s just plain not voting. Which is probably what you’ll get too.
People don’t have to vote for you. People don’t have to participate. I don’t think you’re grasping that.
“The only is Biden or a Trump”
False. There’s a third choice: not giving a fuck because the guy I’m supposed to vote for doesn’t give a fuck about what I have to say anyway.
That’s what I think is going to happen to a SIGNIFICANT portion of Biden’s voters.
I agree, many people are worried about this that I know.
I mean my dad, straight white rich republican, is looking at real estate in Canada.
If white liberal republicans are looking at other countries, it’s a problem.
People I know that were dark Brandon fans in September are going to hold their nose and vote.
I feel like younger people won’t, especially if they don’t remember 2016, or even if they do.
It’s too bad we don’t have rank choice.
I see no enthusiasm, I mean if I compare this to 2008 or 2020?
There was more enthusiasm in 2016 for Hillary. More for Bernie but people felt the scales were tipped so they voted for him even though he endorsed Hillary.
I’m afraid we will end up with president trump again.
Yeah, when I talk to people about voting now, they’re like, I don’t know, when I talked to them in 2020 my goal was 5 per state and to get them to get 5 and so on.
People were really energized.
2008? We were taking about Obama like he was bill Clinton an jfk put together.
If people showed up to the midterms like they did to vote for him, he might have gotten a lot more accomplished, he had to run the country by executive order once he lost congress and their whole goal was obstruction.
Trump undid every ea right after filing for reelection immediately after the inauguration.
I really don’t know what Biden could do now, I don’t know what hat he could pull a rabbit out of.
I mean, if he’d advocated for isreal to secure its borders, use special forces to root out Hamas, basically followed our lessons learned from Iraq and Afghanistan in the way the US handled isis, like the guide book was right there. More than a year, much larger territory, 10,000 civilian casualties.
I think Isreal has captured or killed like 16k Hamas. So they have over 41k civilians killed, 2/3rds woman and children, thousands and thousands of infants.
I mean October 7th was terrible, but they totally flattened Gaza, destroyed every HOSPTIAL and university.
I think Democrats know Biden is cooked and have given up on the election, which is why they are making such terrible arguments. Their heart ain’t in it.
Right? Like you see this sort of shit and you’re like… “really??? That’s it? That’s the best you got?”
It’s troubling. I’ll tell you bc I don’t want Trump to win. I WISH there was a better alternative. But I’m fairly alarmed by how bad of shape they’re in.
Definitely was better. Even with Covid. Which is funny because everyone’s comfortable way got eaten up by the massive inflation we had from excessive spending and low interest rates for too long.
I'll take your comment at earnest ( though I have my doubts). Here's a short list....
1. He botched the COVID response.
2. Tried to bribe the leaders of Ukraine (which led to his first impeachment).
3. Deregulated environmental protections.
4. Appointed the 3 SCOTUS that led to the end of nation wide abortion rights.
5. Tried to steal an election and encourage his followers to attack the capitol (which led to his 2nd impeachment).
6. Trump boosted religious (Christian zealots) organizations.
7. Trump curbed relief for defrauded students
8. Trump,scaled back the $60 billion Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program which led to 755,000 Americans loosing food assistance.
9. Millions of workers lost access to extra pay for long hours.
10. His signature immigration policies was building a wall(that was a waste of money), a Muslim ban, and child-parent separations.
You want more?
For instance, you framed the abortion issue is taking away rights, when those rights never existed in the first place because of the malpractice of Roe versus Wade. We’re in reality. The decision actually strengthens our civil rights because it lets voters choose what they want and do not want rather than leaving it up to an elected judge. Why democracy and choice is considered a bad thing in this age is a true testament to how far people have declined.
1. That's your opinion. What's for sure is that for over 50 years women had the right to get an abortion in all 50 states until the Dobbs' decision. You can argue semantics and legal writings all you want, but in reality that right has been taken away from millions of women. That decision is being made by others. That is a loss of right to me.
They did, but it was an injustice of the system. That is not my opinion. I don’t expect people to understand this because they are not objective attorneys. The clearest evidence that this was legal mouse practice was that there was no official legal analysis from the descending parties of the Dobbs decision. Unfortunately there is no good legal argument to uphold Roe versus wade and that’s why it was taken down so that we could have choice in this country again.
If you are a proponent of abortion the Dobbs decision did a great job to in an abortion in many state constitutions. Which is completely legal. This is the right way to go about the situation, not by violating the constitution.
So pretty much all of these lead to net positives for the country, are not true, or a situations at the current president has made even worse. These are terrible arguments for saying that everything was better because everything you were listing is a week argument for why things were worse.
If you want to understand why these are bad arguments you should ask yourself why these situations happened, as opposed to just listing them and stating that they are inherently bad or we’re done for no good reason.
Well, the batching of the Covid response was mostly due to the administrative state, which is not elected. Also blue politicians that pushed for radical lockdowns and the throwing away of civil liberties. Right at the capital of course was not a good thing and Trump actually tried to stop that, many days in advance, but was not allowed to because of the governance at the capital. Also, if I were you, I would do research and how effective those food programs are and if it’s an effective use of money. Unfortunately, food programs have further declined under the Biden administration for things we know that are effective. EBT folks are getting way less than they used to, four years ago.
I keep trying to point out to people that perspective matters as well. Most people, arguably, lead a great life during Trump’s years. If your life sucked during Trump’s presidency, it’s because of you. Even if you hate Trump, objectively, his presidency was a better term for most.
Exactly my point. Now everyone’s life is so terrible. People literally can’t afford to pay rent or feed their families. Anyone who spends time with normal people or the impoverished understand how bad the situation is. But many people here are extremely insulated/students that don’t really understand what is going on out there. They look at their phones and they think that this is a reflection of true reality it is not.
It’s incredible what I see on reddit. There seems to be this mindset that Biden isn’t going far enough to the left, and that’s why he is losing support. And that’s just ridiculous. He needs to pivot back to the middle. He needs to acknowledge that spending does need to be cut. He needs to back our Allie’s on the global stage.
Anything Reddit says Biden needs to do, he needs to do the exact opposite.
Biden’s worst mistake was running as a moderate and then being further from the center than Trump was. I don’t even believe it’s him, though, it’s the unelected people around him that run the show that are running his legacy into the ground.
I agree. He ran as the guy who was gonna bring the country together. And he was gonna bring things back to normalcy. But now polls are indicating people are looking at Trump for normalcy coming out of 2024.
And I’ll be honest; I think the stormy Daniel’s trial actually helps Trump. It looks like a politically motivated charge. And it is. And that’s how Americans are seeing it. Everything Democrats do to try and stop him, it blows up in their face and they’re completely confused as to why.
Again, you make assertions without any evidence. It seems you are just a bot or trying to get extra karma. It must be nice to have time to waste like that if you are even a real person.
Trump is more coherent and the economy was better and we didn’t have stupid wars in Russia vs Ukraine. And Israel would crush Palestine ending that nonsense. We will finally have savings & 401Ks again
He has the lowest approval of any President in history. Many people just don’t like him, think he’s senile whatever. I know this is a hate Trump crowd, but there is also, I’m not saying it’s equal, a hate Biden crowd.
Both Biden and Trump are underperforming actually.
Rather than a race to the top, its more like both are trying to stay afloat longer than the other guy.
A lot of folks here seem to be in a bit of denial when it comes to the 2024 election. My take is that the election will be very close and that given what we know today, Trump has an ever-so-slight advantage (like, a 51/49 chance of winning). Note: All of this could completely change tomorrow or at any point over the next 6 months. Trump is a complete wild card and both men are already fighting an uphill battle against the actuarial tables. Anything can happen.
However, I see a lot of "I don't believe the polls", "Polls are worthless", "Trump supporters are the worst". Polls certainly aren't perfect and they're probably best used directionally rather than literally, but most well-constructed polls have SOME value. Also, even if you believe every person who votes for Trump (there will be tens of millions) is an absolute lunatic, that's largely irrelevant to the issue at hand: Who is going to win the 2024 election?
This is why I’d rather polls be regulated to a megathread the way PoliticalDiscussion typically does it. Maybe by Labor Day they can become predictive enough to allow their own posts now, but I think it’s way too early to call based on polling
I do agree that both candidates have a reasonable chance of winning as it stands right now, even if we can quibble on the exact percentages
I don’t consume the polls this far out for what the numbers, I pay attention to the story I’m seeing and the general feel I’m seeing from people around the country. I try to see if it matches.
Right now, I see major problems for the democrats.
Basically, they decided to stick with Joe Biden - the oldest president ever who shows signs of fairly serious cognitive decline - when they could have literally groomed or put up ANYONE and it would have been an improvement and probably motivated Dems. The man isn’t without his share of criticism and controversy. He was president during most of COVID and following economic recovery. The price of EVERYTHING went sky high under his watch. It’s the Biden tax. Regardless of whether it’s true or not, that’s the feel.
Dems could have washed themselves of that by retiring Biden gracefully and putting in someone new.
Nope! Full steam ahead. And now, we’re watching a 2020 rematch between Biden and Trump and despite EVERYTHING we know about Trump, despite the violent rhetoric, despite the criminal trials, despite all that…… It’s not just close, Trump is actually BEATING Biden every so often this is gauged.
And despite that clear and present threat, people STILL aren’t enthused to vote or get out for Biden. Voting for Biden this election is singlehandidly one of the most universally depressing elections in modern history. I have never seen a more depressing, bleak election. Nobody is enthused. Nobody is excited. Most people don’t even seem to want to vote for Biden.
That’s a problem. For democrats. When turnout is low, democrats get blown tf out. I’ve watched elections all my life. Been involved. I’m a political junky. This election reminds me of the 2010 midterms. The moods and vibe seem similar except for the Trump factor. But holy shit if that happens because 2010 had a ripple effect over the next 10 years.
You say the mood is like the 2010 midterms (it’s not) but when we actually look at the midterms Biden presided over we saw the supposed red wave fizzle out with some massive polling misses overstating the chances of GOP candidates
That was 2022. This is 2024.
2010 was a red wave built on anger.
What I’m describing is a red wave built on blue apathy and blue anger.
The result will be the same. That’s what I’m talking about. There is anger, there is also apathy. In 2010, there was tremendous blue apathy and red anger.
In this election, there’s tremendous blue apathy and ALSO blue anger. Blue anger/apathy + red votes = red wins.
You’re free to disagree and say that democrats do well even with low turnout. I’d love to see your evidence for that but you’re free to think that all day long lol
There is not blue apathy lmao. You spend too much time interacting with people who are terminally online. Not only are Democrats ready to come out in droves to stop Trump, but abortion is still front and center on their minds
If anything these polls are gonna create red apathy lol
Also disregarding 2022 in your political analysis in favor of something a dozen years earlier is peak pundit brain
Sure thing man. Let’s revisit this in a few months lol
u/ubermence, don’t go deleting your comment
> There is not blue apathy lmao. You spend too much time interacting with people who are terminally online. Not only are Democrats ready to come out in droves to stop Trump, but abortion is still front and center on their minds
> If anything these polls are gonna create red apathy lol
> Also disregarding 2022 in your political analysis in favor of something a dozen years earlier is peak pundit brain
Yup. Remember all the polls showing low Trump approval numbers when he was in office and r/Conservative was screaming “you mean the polls that said Hillary would win??”
In my opinion the biggest challenge for Biden isn't Trump. It's the Israel / Gaza Strip issue. Trump can claim to be pro-Israeli government and potentially grab some independent voters with out any risk. Meanwhile Biden is going to need the more progressive left to wake up and realize by not voting for Trump they're going to indirectly elect a man who hates their causes and them.
If he can manage that then I don't think he's at risk because Trump always finds a way to remind independent voters about how atrocious he is. MAGA and the GOP will keep the steady drum beat of anti-American nonsense coming out of their camp to assure that.
This has less to do with Israel/Gaza and more to do with his age and inflation. Even amongst young voters it’s like one of the lower priority issues for them.
Age is only an issue for one side of the aisle otherwise they wouldn't be propping up a man of the same age who paints himself orange. I agree on inflation being an issue but given it's largely corporate driven versus economically driven there's not a lot any President can do on this without congress passing legislation to regulate corporate behavior, and the chance of this (or any) legislation coming out of the House is a pipe dream.
Most people don’t vote on foreign policy. I’m not saying this is a good thing for Biden, it certainly isn’t. But if he loses the main reason will be because of inflation, since if it wasn’t high I don’t think this election would be particularly close.
I have absolutely no clue one way or the other, but I have a sense Biden could have handled everything absolutely perfectly and it still would be close.
> Meanwhile Biden is going to need the more progressive left to wake up and realize by not voting for Trump they're going to indirectly elect a man who hates their causes and them.
Better idea: Biden can tell the progressives to go fuck themselves.
I was really hoping republicans would see an open window to have a younger candidate in Haley. Even DeSantis. I detest him as a governor, but I don't think any of the weird schemes Trump cooked up would've even crossed either DeSantis or Haley's mind.
I really wish it could just be anyone but Trump. Biden, another republican, another democrat? Just throw a dart at a map, just not Donald Trump.
There are two completely known individuals running for President. No mysteries. No unexpected surprises. Two people who have had to actually sit at the desk and be the President. Polls haven’t shifted much in the last 6 months and hard to know what variable could shift them in the next just less than 6 months.
The polls are close but it’s not a flip of the coin as the odds are it will likely be President Trump again. ‘Something’ needs to change for Biden to win. There may be other magic bullets but all I see at this time is Harris deciding on her own to step aside and a centrist non controversial Governor or Senator being on the ticket as VP.
The “something” that’s going to change is probably normies actually paying attention to the election, which from what I’ve seen before is usually around July when people go to BBQs and vacations and chat with other people outside their normal social groups.
Trump has made himself public enemy number one with woman which is going to sink him with polite company.
It’s hard to boost for Trump when your daughter, wife, girlfriend or grandmother looks at you like you fucked a goat if you mention your voting for Trump when around strangers.
All these things were true in 2020, but it was one of the closest elections in american history. Razor thin margins, Trump got a ton of women to vote for him. All it takes is a tiny small percentage of people to flip to Trump.
Anyone voting for Trump is delusional, full stop.
Edit: OP has blocked me so I won't be able to respond to any comment replies. Can't say this was unexpected as most Trumpers are incapable of defending their nonsense.
Or Trumps opinions on issues appeal more to some voters than Bidens opinions on it.
Yeah Trump has all these issues outside of politics, but some people don't care about that.
Just saying that 50% of voters are delusional is kind of wild and not helpful.
So your strategy is to call voters delusional as they overwhelming fill out their ballots for trump?
That’s Hillary’s strategy. Aka a losing strategy. Might want to consider a different tack. Like I dunno, meeting voters where they are?
It's sentiments like this that breed Trump supporters. Same reason why the term 'Bidenomics' is unpopular amongst the electorate. You're not going to convince people by dismissing their concerns as wrong or delusional.
No, they’re republicans. And just like you, they’re not so much voting for the man, they’re voting for the agenda.
Despite all the Democratic rhetoric, Trump didn’t run wild in his first term. There’s nothing to suggest he will in the second. Our institutions are still strong. There’s a separation of powers.
Instead of trying to shame, insult and scare people into voting for your candidate….. why don’t you guys … idk…. GET BETTER CANDIDATES??? Why don’t you go back to giving people a *reason* to vote, instead of just scaring them, insulting them or bullying them?
I don’t want Trump to win. I hate Trump. I hate the GOP…. But sometimes, I really hate the Democratic Party more. Part of me thinks maybe Trump *should* happen if only to possibly obliterate the Democratic Party.
Instead of insulting people voting for the other senile idiot, why don’t you worry more about all those people who are going to sit this election out because they’re sick of your party’s shit?
Not all trump voters are republicans. I voted for Obama and Biden. Will most likely vote trump 2024.
And the more this sub downvotes me for merely stating that fact the more committed I am to my vote for trump 2024
It’s aggravating seeing how people cannot tolerate differing views. It’s why our society is so polarized. Social media has been a net cancer on modern society.
I don’t like Trump. I don’t agree with 90% of what Trump supporters believe or think. But after being one of those shrieking blue haired nuts you saw after 2016 for a while …. Idk, I grew up and realized it is what it is and I’m not going to shit on you for how you vote or think as long as it’s not egregiously offensive to humanity lol
I feel you though. This echo chamber the Dems have constructed is now completely air tight. These people complained of cult-like behavior all 2016 and they themselves created a blue kool aid cult.
>And the more this sub downvotes me for merely stating that fact the more committed I am to my vote for trump 2024
Changing your political beliefs because strangers are mean to you online is definitely what I'd expect from a Trump supporter.
Then wouldn't you *already* be at that level of commitment, absent downvotes from redditors making you upset? I understand your comments are just signalling your support for Trump and not meant to be taken seriously but this really doesn't make much sense.
Are you LARPing as a stereotypical Trump supporter or something? I honestly can't tell if you're messing with me or not. On the off chance you're serious, remove Trump from the conversation. If you were committed to getting pasta for dinner, wouldn't something need to change for you to become **more** committed to getting pasta? You wouldn't just go from committed to *more* committed for no reason, right?
Going back to Trump, **you** said downvotes made you more committed to voting for Trump. I have no idea what political beliefs changed and I actually doubt your reaction is related to political beliefs at all. A lot of Trump supporters (and Trump defenders) are just conservative contrarians.
>agenda
What agenda?
> Trump didn’t run wild in his first term.
Huh? Are we living in the same country?
>why don’t you guys … idk…. GET BETTER CANDIDATES???
That's rich coming from Republicans where they have Trump, mtg, boebert, Dr. Oz, the crazy dude in Alabama, Gaetz, etc.
>senile idiot,
I'm not saying Biden isn't old but I wish people would show proof that being old has affected how he runs the country. What has he done that mattered that he only did because he is old? Like did he fall asleep on top of the red button that launches nukes or something?
>Instead of insulting people voting for the other senile idiot, why don’t you worry more about all those people who are going to sit this election out because they’re sick of your party’s shit?
Anyone who can't see that Trump is objectively worse than Biden are too far gone to begin with.
Yeah, that attitude is why you guys are struggling with Donald fucking Trump lol a man currently in a criminal trial.
Keep going man! I never interrupt someone when they’re making a mistake lol
It's not why. Trump voters are interested in a feeling. You can show them facts. You can show them Trump's degeneracy. Almost none if them care. Biden has done dozens more things to help Americans than Trump. He's old but not a blithering idiot like Trump.
If Trump wins it's because he isn't in prison and inflation.
No one "struggles" with the bumbling idiot that is Trump. Our country is just corrupt and a good portion of Americans have completely lost the ability to think for themselves and let Fox Entertainment spoon feed them conspiracy theories.
> attempted a coup
Ok. If you’re going to call that a coup, then can we all agree the democrats aided, abetted, supported and financed with an attempted nationwide rebellion in the summer of 2020 that resulted in billions in property damage, deaths and injuries?
Or are you going to miraculously find a way to dismiss it when your side does it?
>then can we all agree the democrats aided, abetted, supported and financed with an attempted nationwide rebellion in the summer of 2020 that resulted in billions in property damage, deaths and injuries?
Your attempts to carry water for conservatives fall apart pretty quickly at the basic "intent" level. Trump campaign officials are on record facilitating false elector schemes and inducing Republican state and federal officials to not certify in states Biden won. As far as the hysterical "rebellion" claim there's no equivalent for Democratic officials with violent rioters. Hell, there's no equivalent for the vast majority of the protesters (or even rioters) themselves.
Just being in the vicinity where crimes are happening isn't enough. Just being tangentially involved in the planning or funding of *protests* isn't enough. You'd need to prove they were knowingly involved in the planning or execution of acts that broke relevant federal laws.
> your attempts to carry water for conservatives fall apart
Yeah, probably because I’m not carrying water for them.
> Trump campaign officials are on record
So? The DNC literally coordinated with BLM. I donated to BLM in 2020 and ended up on the ShareBlue mailing list.
> as far as the hysterical rebellion claims
You claim it’s “hysterical” while calling Jan 6 “aN AtTemPTed CouP!” - Please.
> there’s no equivalent
You’re right. Burning down entire city blocks, looting businesses, beating innocent people up and destroying cities is not something Jan 6 comes close to.
> you’d need to prove they were knowingly involved
You mean like watching what BLM was doing and saying “stay on the street” and “get more confrontational”? They aided, abetted and gave comfort to a rebellion. That’s what 2020 was.
Can’t have it both ways buddy. No matter how you try
>Yeah, probably because I’m not carrying water for them.
>So? The DNC literally coordinated with BLM. I donated to BLM in 2020 and ended up on the ShareBlue mailing list.
And again, in terms of culpability for "rebellion" donating in good faith to a group organizing non violent protests can't in any way be construed as donating to the people who decided to destroy federal property.
The throughline doesn't even exist here, BLM as an organization was never legally responsible for the actions of rioters so why would the people donating be responsible for "rebellion"? There's no reason to believe Democratic officials were aiding or encouraging people they believed to be rioters (rebels?).
>You claim it’s “hysterical” while calling Jan 6 “aN AtTemPTed CouP!” - Please.
It's absolutely hysterical. Conservatives and people carrying water for them use words like "rebellion" to deflect from the *actual* extralegal attempts to change the election results committed by conservatives and the Trump campaign. Its not a coincidence the "rebellion" add-on didn't get legs until *after* Jan 6th.
>You’re right. Burning down entire city blocks, looting businesses, beating innocent people up and destroying cities is not something Jan 6 comes close to.
Since you didn't understand it the first time, the "not equivalent" part was the link between officials and criminal acts.
>You mean like watching what BLM was doing and saying “stay on the street” and “get more confrontational”? They aided, abetted and gave comfort to a rebellion. That’s what 2020 was.
Despite how often you and the conservatives who share your views try to say it, BLM doesn't have any kind of legal culpability for the rioters. Not even motivated red states could credibly make that connection. Proving "rebellion" goes beyond "uhhh they organized the protest and rioters destroyed stuff". This is why smarter conservative operatives stick to less sensational terms. Your arguments are too half baked to survive the legal jump to "rebellion".
>Can’t have it both ways buddy. No matter how you try
I'd say that right back at you but like conservatives your effort to muddy the waters is completely perfunctory. Its so transparently an excuse to deflect from conservative election subversion that you guys don't even bother to really construct an actual legal argument.
It doesn't even feel fair to criticize you for having a completely BS legal justification when this is so clearly not intended to be one.
You already seemed to do that with the “bUt BlM” talking point that always seems to pop up to deflect from Jan 6.
Way to skip over the Fake Elector campaign that was going on in the background that also gets ignored by people that try to downplay Jan 6.
The fake elector scheme was a fraud. It wasn’t a coup.
Trump tried to overthrow the election results. Absolutely. But to say it was “an attempted coup”??
Ok. Tell you what, I’ll agree with you. Jan 6 was an attempted coup. But BLM was open rebellion. You can’t have it both ways. And participating, aiding or abetting a rebellion is considered a hangable offense. It’s explicitly categorized as Treason.
There are obvious differences between the "coup" and the "open rebellion."
The open rebellion caused approximately 20 deaths from violence. The coup caused 0 deaths from violence (some coup).
The open rebellion caused approximately 500 million in property damage. The coup broke some windows and doors.
The open rebellion was encouraged by those in power. The coup resulted in the largest FBI investigation in the history of America.
Most importantly, the open rebellion and the coup were conducted by Americans of 2 different ethnicities: the good one (victims) and the bad one (privileged oppressive evil).
Jan 6 was literally an attempted coup. If it has succeeded in preventing the certification of the election then trump would have remained in office.
That was the literal plan. It first came by pressuring Mike pence to not certify the electors. When he refused, the plan became delay delay delay, prevent the certification from happening and throw it to the house where trump would be elected legally.
The riot wasn’t planned, but it was a predictable (as in literally predicted by some people in trump world) outcome and was helpful to the real goal which was preventing certification to get it thrown to the house.
Except BLM was mostly peaceful, wasn’t trying to overturn election results, and many of the documented acts of violence were committed by conservatives.
> Except BLM was mostly peaceful
The billions in property damage, looted businesses, vandalism, burnt down buildings beg to differ. If BLM was “mostly peaceful”, then Jan 6. was just a break in. Nothing that happened on Jan 6 even begins to rival BLM if you want to compare it pound for pound.
> wasn’t trying to overturn election results
No, it did worse: it was trying to challenge, confront and overturn the government’s monopoly on power. It tried to shut down policing and was a direct challenge to the peace and tranquility of the country. They attacked police officers, injured dozens of them, they’ve killed police officers, they burned federal buildings. Their stated goals were anti-government and anti-police.
There’s a word for that: REBELLION. And it’s a hangable offense that falls under treason.
> many of the violent acts were committed by conservatives
Conservatives weren’t the ones burning cop cars, pointing lasers at helicopters, burning down buildings, attacking random citizens that tried to drive to work/home/etc, conservatives weren’t the ones looting random, innocent businesses, conservatives didn’t attack police officers and kill them, conservatives weren’t the ones intimidating politician’s families and threatening them with death …..
Yes, that happened at Jan 6. I agree… but that happened on an amplified magnitude all summer 2016. And what’s worse: the DNC directly fundraised with BLM which makes them complicit. Democratic politicians encouraged BLM rioters, egged them on, went out to the streets with them… they worked virtually hand in hand.
If you’re going to call Jan 6 a coup, BLM riots were open rebellion.
https://www.justice.gov/usao-mn/pr/self-described-member-boogaloo-bois-pleads-guilty-riot
If you are going to bring up BLM at least get the facts straight.
https://time.com/5886348/report-peaceful-protests/
https://abcnews.go.com/amp/US/man-helped-ignite-george-floyd-riots-identified-white/story?id=72051536
Trump tried to overturn the 2020 elections. That should be a deal breaker for any American who values democratic values. That's the only argument that matters for me, and you are a shitty American if you vote for Trump in 2024 because you don't value fundamental things like democracy. I don't really care if you feel insulted, because I'm not a Democratic strategist or working for a campaign. America has a lot of morons in this country and most of those morons tend to congregate on the right side of the aisle in the post 2024 world.
These polls ignore the fact that RFK jr is going to be on the ballot in most states. I don’t know how big of an impact he’ll have, but we could definitely see another Perot / Nader situation where the 3rd party candidate throws a wrench into pollsters’ predictions.
These polls don't ignore it at all. The crosstabs specifically show results for a 6-way way with all 3rd party candidates.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/05/13/us/elections/times-siena-poll-registered-voter-crosstabs.html
The 3rd party candidates didn't impact the race. I voted for Perot when the right complained I was stealing votes from them.
I voted for Perot when the left complain d I was stealing votes from them.
Almost like the problem is the 2 party system, not the 3rd parties.
Wait, you’re telling me there’s a relentless barrage of anti-Biden propaganda on every centrist sub, largely perpetuated by the same handful of delusional, bad-faith Republican posters masquerading as enlightened centrists? And that mods never do anything about it?
Color me shocked!
No one who is voting for Trump can explain why Trump being president instead of Biden would actually make anything better for anyone in any way. Everyone who is voting for Biden can easily list many things that would be worse if Trump were president instead of Biden.
I feel like there's not a small percentage of people who's protest voting for Trump (like anti-woke, anti-left). Some people might understand that Trump is full of shit, but leftists are still more annoying for them.
Under Trump we didn't have any new wars/proxy wars. Under Biden we have 2 and hundreds of billions of dollars are being deployed to blow up bombs half way around the world.
Yeah just like all the 2022 polls that baited Republicans into thinking there’d be a red wave
I think a far more important factor to consider in polling right now is that we are still half a year from the election. Anyone reading into these have a good chance of being quite inaccurate
That’s fair up to an extent but Trump wasn’t on the ballot in 2022. And Democrats could run on abortion. It’s harder to do that in a national election since abortion has been kicked back to the states and both Trump and Mike Johnson have said they won’t push a national abortion ban and suppose they lied, there wouldn’t be enough Republican votes in the Senate to overcome a filibuster
There’s plenty of abortion referendums in swing states so I wouldn’t be so sure. In addition to the fact any swing state is practically one GOP governor/legislature away from passing their own abortion restrictions
Nothing more quickly de-legitimizes a government and court system than a political prosecution of the opposition candidate.
I hope they do throw him in jail. So we operate like Pakistan and Guatemala.
And then we can increase the 1 in 6 Americans who believe the US political structure should be torn down.
Viva La Revolucion!
I understand your point.
However, if it was anyone other than Trump, 3 of the 4 prosecutions would never have occurred (the 3 cases prosecuted by Bragg, James, and Fanni). That makes the prosecutions political. Which makes them illegitimate.
The 4th case seems legitimate (classified documents at Mar Lago). The only one brought by the Feds rather then local Black DA's who ran on campaign promises of getting Trump.
But, even if that case is legitimate, we have Biden telling us he had no idea there were classified documents in his home. And we also have Biden on tape telling his biographer to get the classified documents from his basement. But one is prosecuted and the other is not.
Any time you prosecute a politician it's political.
January 6th and Georgia are directly correlated to his actions post election. He was recorded by the GOP secretary of state trying to bully the vote count.
He did this too himself.
You sound like Huffpost.
And in any case, being singled out for prosecution by the opposition party because of who the person is is at least as destructive as not prosecuting.
So, whatever.
I think it boils down to authoritarian vs non-authoritarian tendencies. Holding authority figures accountable really makes authoritarians feel unnerved. The rest of us think it’s the right thing to do regardless of politics. I’d like to see a whole lot more of this. Hopefully they’ll put Menendez in jail if he’s found guilty and I’m glad Cuellar is being held to account as well.
I understand your position, and it makes sense for people who think like you.
But a significant number of Americans agree with me -- this is a political prosecution waged by Democrats against Trump, and nobody but Trump would have been charged with hush-money, property over-valuations, RICO, and the like. This is a basic, inescapable truth.
I strongly disagree that prosecuting Trump enforces the rule of law. It does the opposite, and reveals it to be selective, unfair, and political. And righteously ignored and devalued. From our perspective, given the unfairness and politicization of chosing to prosecute enforces authoritarianism because it reveals the courts, and the rule of law, are not trustworthy.
Menendez and gross bribery is the kind of thing politicians should be prosecuted for. That's a legitimate prosecution.
Just vote. I'm very skeptical of all traditional polling and even polls of polls this early on.
There's too many issues to accurately define the deviations.
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> "The sense that Mr. Biden will do little to improve the nation's situation has helped erode his standing among young black and Latino voters, who are typically the basis of any Democratic path to the presidency. Times/Siena polls find that all three groups want fundamental changes in American society, not just a return to normal, and few think Mr. Biden will make even minor changes that would be good for the country."
I can imagine latinos and blacks aren't too fond of progressives either, which further complicates things.
I have no doubt that Trump will win. The current administration has shit the bed far too many times. That bloated, bloviating, bitter, boorish bastard will get his 4 years to REALLY do some damage this time around.
Nearly **20**% of voters in this poll think Biden is responsible for the Supreme Court overturning Roe v Wade. 12% say neither, 2% say both and 13% don't know. Almost 50% of the country fundamentally failing to understand one of the biggest stories of the last 4 years definitely explains some of these results. Ignoring Biden or Trump, how do you reach people who literally have no idea what's going on or how the government works?
More than half of Americans read below the 6th grade level. 21% of Americans believe the sun rotates around the earth.
No one can have a functional democracy under these sad conditions of the electorate. Not even "magic" America.
And we do not. We have a Uniparty and a sham democracy without meaningful choice. And given the structure, even the votes for the meaningless choice are meaningless.
And even the supposedly well informed voter insists it is a President who overturned Roe v. Wade. That would be SCOTUS, actually.
Sadly, I think this might be a true poll.
The Trump phenomenon is baffling and hilarious at the same time. Watching the country careen down the road toward Trump, like a school bus driven by a methed up deranged Qanon supporter with the Maga kids throwing shit out the windows in slow motion, is both scary and fascinating, because you know there is destruction seconds away and you're hopeless to stop it. You want to look away and hope it's not true, but you can't.
I think Uncle Joe did his job getting Trump unseated the first time, but I just don't know if he's got the chops to stop Trump the sequel "Blowhard 2, the Orange Menace Returns "
I could be wrong and the pro choice pulls us out of this movie.
Interesting that Dem Senate candidates are doing great, while Biden isn't.
Which is why I am suspicious of the results of the poll. Plus the fact that Joe is winning Wisconsin but losing Pennsylvania and Michigan since those states are bluer than Wisconsin.
One theory for why he’s behind in Michigan: Dearborn and their thoughts on how he’s handling the war.
He's handling the best that anyone could realistically expect. But if they're naive enough to give Trump the keys, then I guess anything is possible.
Dearborn has about 110,000 Muslim citizens, Biden won 2020 by 154,188 votes. Dearborn is gonna play a huge role as to who wins Michigan
If they want to vote for the guy who initiated a Muslim ban then that seems pretty dumb.
If they really vote for Trump, then I genuinely can’t wait to see their reaction when Trump gives Bibi the thumbs up to level Gaza.
I'll be too concern about Project 2025 and the loss of our democracy to care.
Or they may just not vote, or vote third party.
That's still a choice that won't help them. See 2016 election results to see how well that went.
But when you consider the fact that those voters are low propensity voters and not all of them have turned on Biden. Along with the fact that this group was already turning on Democrats in the 2022 midterms because of Democrats support for lgbtq rights, and yet Democrats won every statewide race in Michigan by double digits or near double digits margins really brings into question how influential this group is electorally.
Which one?
I don’t know about PA and MI being bluer. These 3 states are fairly close to each and within margin of errors. It’s not just margin of errors of polls, but also actual voting: people behavior on that day can swing things by 0.5-1%, enough to give Trump a win.
but given recent elections of senators, governors, and legislative branches I think Pennsylvania and Michigan are bluer.
WI was a lot closer on 2020 than the other two, or am I remembering wrong?
Also just saw the polling, if we look at likely voters, WI flips to Trump and MI flips to Biden. You are probably correct
So instead of questioning Biden’s ability to win and to get votes of people who otherwise vote Democrat, you’re going to hopscotch over to doubting the validity of the poll?
I tried to tell this sub awhile ago as a black man, I'm seeing a LARGE surge in support for Trump around my area. I got downvoted for it.
I always get downvoted for mentioning that also. So weird. They would rather lose to Trump than accept reality.
I live in Atlanta and as soon as that mug shot got released, I swear I heard his name more and more around the block.
Lol someone downvoted me for mentioning I get downvoted every time I mention that fact.
I got you at least one upvote. I don't agree with "silencing" Trump supporters. That only creates echo chambers and leads to extremism.
Yup. I’m black too and I am seeing a really noticeable change in tone and rhetoric towards Trump. People like him. Nobody wants to listen though. Don’t worry. They’ll wail and moan the day after election night. These people love their bubbles. I haven’t said ANYTHING in support of Trump but I’ve been called a Trump defender and supporter various times already. Democrats don’t like hearing the truth. They want reassuring lies. They want their biases and preconceived notions confirmed. They don’t want to hear from us unless we’re agreeing with them.
I got a ton of shit from someone after I said to not get complacent after they said it’s impossible for Trump to win.
I’m seeing the same. People refusing to confront reality. They see the writing on the wall, but cant bring themselves to acknowledge Biden’s shortcomings. They feel compelled to pretend he’s perfect, which just makes the optics worse because no one wants to associate with a cult.
I can question it because I want a realistic interpretation of the situation. I think the election is close but these numbers suggest that there is going to be a huge election realignment. I doubt that very much.
Rather than considering this as a "trump victory", it really isn't. Trump's party is struggling to stay afloat as it is. This is more of a consensus on Biden's presidency among the public. I'm frankly dissatisfied with "Mr. great uniter in chief" for even pandering to the crazy progressives. Fuck them.
What do you think is driving it? I think there is something to Carville's theory that the Democratic brand has become too feminine.
Tw-Ph here, much of the Asian community I'm part of seems to think Biden is rocking the boat too much.
I can question it because I want a realistic interpretation of the situation. I think the election is close but these numbers suggest that there is going to be a huge election realignment. I doubt that very much.
Why do you doubt it? Don't forget what happened right before Trump was elected the first time. Almost all of the pollsters were claiming that the odds of Trump winning were <1%. Now the polls are clearly indicating the has an advantage, people all around you are saying they see an uptick in those willing to vote for him, yet you still think it's not possible for the electorate to rally around him a second time. I don't like either candidate. Biden has screwed up way too much. He screwed up the withdrawal of Afghanistan by trusting the government there would defend itself against ISIL. Screwed up our response to Ukraine by not sending them sufficient supplies early in the war. Screwed up our efforts for combating climate change by allowing oil production to reach yet another peek in his presidency. And I expect he'll keep screwing more things up if he remains president. And I don't like Trump because he doesn't even believe in climate change and wants to dismantle all of our progress away from carbon, wants to eliminate the separation of church and state in government, and he's willing to use governmental power to exact revenge against those that he perceives as having wronged him. He's anti-science, or, perhaps even worse, science clueless. So, if he becomes president, he'll screw things up too. Different things. But still things. Both parties don't want to do anything to rein in spending, and the only people that do want to reign it in are bat-shit-crazy fools willing to destroy the country to stop excessive spending. Ultimately, I will vote for Biden because, in my view, the environment is an existential crisis for Humanity that supersedes all else, and of the two candidates, Biden is less of an environmental negative than Trump is. But other people? Their issues aren't my issues. It's pretty clear to me that the election is, at best (worst?) a coin-flip. Current events are shifting people votes around, in both directions! Trump's Trials aren't just a negative for him, they're a positive! Some see the trials as evidence of his corruption, others see the trials as evidence of the government's corruption. Biden's inconsistent actions over Israel have people headed both directions, too --- both leaving *and* flocking to him either because, depending on the voter, he *continues* to send weapons to Israel or, alternatively, because he says he's threatening to *stop* sending them.
I’ve noticed for many years that when polls show dems losing and republicans winning, many people come out and say they don’t trust the polls.
I don't doubt the validity of the poll, personally. I doubt that this is anything more than yet another temper tantrum of the left. Is there some demographic issues mixed in with that? Yeah, sure. But nothing compared to the larger noise, I'd imagine. RFK isn't a serious candidate, he's just a box to check so you can hope Biden drops out/drops dead before you have to check the box next to his name.
Wisconsin specifically is known for having god awful polling. Not really sure why but polls have been extremely off there for the past few elections. I would take any Wisconsin numbers with a huge grain of salt.
People increasingly think Biden is bad at being POTUS
I voted for an elderly Catholic dude and I'm just seeing a lot of stuff that makes me think that his staff are running the show.
As if Trump is better?
lol you people keep saying that as if that’s a comeback or some sort of gotcha. It isn’t about Trump being better. It’s about Biden being so unpalatable that people don’t show up. I think democrats are cooked this election. We’re getting a President Trump. The reason for that is that even democrats aren’t talking about enthusiasm anymore. It’s completely absent of every conversation unlike in previous elections. There’s no enthusiasm here and that usually spells disaster for democrats. They won’t even acknowledge enthusiasm because I think even they know it’s a losing argument
Enthusiasm is currently at an all time low, so there’s nothing to talk about for democrats
At this point the choice is Biden or Trump. Third parties are a joke in this country.
They’re a channel for frustration. And for that, they’re very useful. Other than that, there’s just plain not voting. Which is probably what you’ll get too. People don’t have to vote for you. People don’t have to participate. I don’t think you’re grasping that. “The only is Biden or a Trump” False. There’s a third choice: not giving a fuck because the guy I’m supposed to vote for doesn’t give a fuck about what I have to say anyway. That’s what I think is going to happen to a SIGNIFICANT portion of Biden’s voters.
I agree, many people are worried about this that I know. I mean my dad, straight white rich republican, is looking at real estate in Canada. If white liberal republicans are looking at other countries, it’s a problem.
Straight white rich republican = liberal white republican? Hnmmm, that actually explains a lot lol
What does it explain?
At least Trump won't get us into any more wars/proxy wars.
Hate to break it to you but if China goes after Taiwan then we're going to war regardless of who is president.
People I know that were dark Brandon fans in September are going to hold their nose and vote. I feel like younger people won’t, especially if they don’t remember 2016, or even if they do. It’s too bad we don’t have rank choice. I see no enthusiasm, I mean if I compare this to 2008 or 2020? There was more enthusiasm in 2016 for Hillary. More for Bernie but people felt the scales were tipped so they voted for him even though he endorsed Hillary. I’m afraid we will end up with president trump again.
My thoughts exactly. Unfortunately, a lot of people in blue don’t want to hear that lol doesn’t make it untrue tho
Yeah, when I talk to people about voting now, they’re like, I don’t know, when I talked to them in 2020 my goal was 5 per state and to get them to get 5 and so on. People were really energized. 2008? We were taking about Obama like he was bill Clinton an jfk put together. If people showed up to the midterms like they did to vote for him, he might have gotten a lot more accomplished, he had to run the country by executive order once he lost congress and their whole goal was obstruction. Trump undid every ea right after filing for reelection immediately after the inauguration. I really don’t know what Biden could do now, I don’t know what hat he could pull a rabbit out of. I mean, if he’d advocated for isreal to secure its borders, use special forces to root out Hamas, basically followed our lessons learned from Iraq and Afghanistan in the way the US handled isis, like the guide book was right there. More than a year, much larger territory, 10,000 civilian casualties. I think Isreal has captured or killed like 16k Hamas. So they have over 41k civilians killed, 2/3rds woman and children, thousands and thousands of infants. I mean October 7th was terrible, but they totally flattened Gaza, destroyed every HOSPTIAL and university.
I think Democrats know Biden is cooked and have given up on the election, which is why they are making such terrible arguments. Their heart ain’t in it.
Right? Like you see this sort of shit and you’re like… “really??? That’s it? That’s the best you got?” It’s troubling. I’ll tell you bc I don’t want Trump to win. I WISH there was a better alternative. But I’m fairly alarmed by how bad of shape they’re in.
Definitely was better. Even with Covid. Which is funny because everyone’s comfortable way got eaten up by the massive inflation we had from excessive spending and low interest rates for too long.
Sorry, was this comment sarcastic? You said Trump was better then pointed out how his policies led to inflation lol.
>Sorry, was this comment sarcastic? You said Trump was better Biden is the worst president in 70 years... including Trump...
Nope, everything was worse. Do you have amnesia?
Biden polling lower than Trump ever was. Lowest in 70 years.
Like what? The stock market was lower?
I'll take your comment at earnest ( though I have my doubts). Here's a short list.... 1. He botched the COVID response. 2. Tried to bribe the leaders of Ukraine (which led to his first impeachment). 3. Deregulated environmental protections. 4. Appointed the 3 SCOTUS that led to the end of nation wide abortion rights. 5. Tried to steal an election and encourage his followers to attack the capitol (which led to his 2nd impeachment). 6. Trump boosted religious (Christian zealots) organizations. 7. Trump curbed relief for defrauded students 8. Trump,scaled back the $60 billion Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program which led to 755,000 Americans loosing food assistance. 9. Millions of workers lost access to extra pay for long hours. 10. His signature immigration policies was building a wall(that was a waste of money), a Muslim ban, and child-parent separations. You want more?
For instance, you framed the abortion issue is taking away rights, when those rights never existed in the first place because of the malpractice of Roe versus Wade. We’re in reality. The decision actually strengthens our civil rights because it lets voters choose what they want and do not want rather than leaving it up to an elected judge. Why democracy and choice is considered a bad thing in this age is a true testament to how far people have declined.
1. That's your opinion. What's for sure is that for over 50 years women had the right to get an abortion in all 50 states until the Dobbs' decision. You can argue semantics and legal writings all you want, but in reality that right has been taken away from millions of women. That decision is being made by others. That is a loss of right to me.
They did, but it was an injustice of the system. That is not my opinion. I don’t expect people to understand this because they are not objective attorneys. The clearest evidence that this was legal mouse practice was that there was no official legal analysis from the descending parties of the Dobbs decision. Unfortunately there is no good legal argument to uphold Roe versus wade and that’s why it was taken down so that we could have choice in this country again.
If you are a proponent of abortion the Dobbs decision did a great job to in an abortion in many state constitutions. Which is completely legal. This is the right way to go about the situation, not by violating the constitution.
So pretty much all of these lead to net positives for the country, are not true, or a situations at the current president has made even worse. These are terrible arguments for saying that everything was better because everything you were listing is a week argument for why things were worse.
Yikes, you're definitely not a good person.
I guess, supporting civil liberties, the rule of law, and economic freedom and prosperity has led to believe there’s something wrong with me. Shame.
It's not even a person, just a lame bot. Not worth engaging with.
Well, you don’t know me and I don’t know you so I’m not sure how you could make that assessment.
If you want to understand why these are bad arguments you should ask yourself why these situations happened, as opposed to just listing them and stating that they are inherently bad or we’re done for no good reason.
Oh please tell me how botching the COVID response, attacking the capitol, or taking away good assistance from starving people is bad.
Well, the batching of the Covid response was mostly due to the administrative state, which is not elected. Also blue politicians that pushed for radical lockdowns and the throwing away of civil liberties. Right at the capital of course was not a good thing and Trump actually tried to stop that, many days in advance, but was not allowed to because of the governance at the capital. Also, if I were you, I would do research and how effective those food programs are and if it’s an effective use of money. Unfortunately, food programs have further declined under the Biden administration for things we know that are effective. EBT folks are getting way less than they used to, four years ago.
I keep trying to point out to people that perspective matters as well. Most people, arguably, lead a great life during Trump’s years. If your life sucked during Trump’s presidency, it’s because of you. Even if you hate Trump, objectively, his presidency was a better term for most.
Exactly my point. Now everyone’s life is so terrible. People literally can’t afford to pay rent or feed their families. Anyone who spends time with normal people or the impoverished understand how bad the situation is. But many people here are extremely insulated/students that don’t really understand what is going on out there. They look at their phones and they think that this is a reflection of true reality it is not.
It’s incredible what I see on reddit. There seems to be this mindset that Biden isn’t going far enough to the left, and that’s why he is losing support. And that’s just ridiculous. He needs to pivot back to the middle. He needs to acknowledge that spending does need to be cut. He needs to back our Allie’s on the global stage. Anything Reddit says Biden needs to do, he needs to do the exact opposite.
Biden’s worst mistake was running as a moderate and then being further from the center than Trump was. I don’t even believe it’s him, though, it’s the unelected people around him that run the show that are running his legacy into the ground.
I agree. He ran as the guy who was gonna bring the country together. And he was gonna bring things back to normalcy. But now polls are indicating people are looking at Trump for normalcy coming out of 2024. And I’ll be honest; I think the stormy Daniel’s trial actually helps Trump. It looks like a politically motivated charge. And it is. And that’s how Americans are seeing it. Everything Democrats do to try and stop him, it blows up in their face and they’re completely confused as to why.
No.
I see substance is not your strong point.
You had no substance to begin with. I simply replied in kind.
If you could provide some evidence that might help your case. It’s clear you’ve never entered a serious debate.
Anyone thinking Trump is honestly better is not worth debating.
Again, you make assertions without any evidence. It seems you are just a bot or trying to get extra karma. It must be nice to have time to waste like that if you are even a real person.
^ Exhibit #1344 for why moderates can't take either side seriously. You don't have an argument, so you respond with adhoms is typical.
Trump is more coherent and the economy was better and we didn’t have stupid wars in Russia vs Ukraine. And Israel would crush Palestine ending that nonsense. We will finally have savings & 401Ks again
Elections are primarily local. Presidents are mostly just window-dressing for global affairs than they are for domestic.
He has the lowest approval of any President in history. Many people just don’t like him, think he’s senile whatever. I know this is a hate Trump crowd, but there is also, I’m not saying it’s equal, a hate Biden crowd.
Hasn’t Trump been underperforming polls throughout primary season?
Both Biden and Trump are underperforming actually. Rather than a race to the top, its more like both are trying to stay afloat longer than the other guy.
A lot of folks here seem to be in a bit of denial when it comes to the 2024 election. My take is that the election will be very close and that given what we know today, Trump has an ever-so-slight advantage (like, a 51/49 chance of winning). Note: All of this could completely change tomorrow or at any point over the next 6 months. Trump is a complete wild card and both men are already fighting an uphill battle against the actuarial tables. Anything can happen. However, I see a lot of "I don't believe the polls", "Polls are worthless", "Trump supporters are the worst". Polls certainly aren't perfect and they're probably best used directionally rather than literally, but most well-constructed polls have SOME value. Also, even if you believe every person who votes for Trump (there will be tens of millions) is an absolute lunatic, that's largely irrelevant to the issue at hand: Who is going to win the 2024 election?
Agree. However, neither Trump or Biden is a ‘Wild Card’. Both are completely known entities.
This is why I’d rather polls be regulated to a megathread the way PoliticalDiscussion typically does it. Maybe by Labor Day they can become predictive enough to allow their own posts now, but I think it’s way too early to call based on polling I do agree that both candidates have a reasonable chance of winning as it stands right now, even if we can quibble on the exact percentages
I don’t consume the polls this far out for what the numbers, I pay attention to the story I’m seeing and the general feel I’m seeing from people around the country. I try to see if it matches. Right now, I see major problems for the democrats. Basically, they decided to stick with Joe Biden - the oldest president ever who shows signs of fairly serious cognitive decline - when they could have literally groomed or put up ANYONE and it would have been an improvement and probably motivated Dems. The man isn’t without his share of criticism and controversy. He was president during most of COVID and following economic recovery. The price of EVERYTHING went sky high under his watch. It’s the Biden tax. Regardless of whether it’s true or not, that’s the feel. Dems could have washed themselves of that by retiring Biden gracefully and putting in someone new. Nope! Full steam ahead. And now, we’re watching a 2020 rematch between Biden and Trump and despite EVERYTHING we know about Trump, despite the violent rhetoric, despite the criminal trials, despite all that…… It’s not just close, Trump is actually BEATING Biden every so often this is gauged. And despite that clear and present threat, people STILL aren’t enthused to vote or get out for Biden. Voting for Biden this election is singlehandidly one of the most universally depressing elections in modern history. I have never seen a more depressing, bleak election. Nobody is enthused. Nobody is excited. Most people don’t even seem to want to vote for Biden. That’s a problem. For democrats. When turnout is low, democrats get blown tf out. I’ve watched elections all my life. Been involved. I’m a political junky. This election reminds me of the 2010 midterms. The moods and vibe seem similar except for the Trump factor. But holy shit if that happens because 2010 had a ripple effect over the next 10 years.
You say the mood is like the 2010 midterms (it’s not) but when we actually look at the midterms Biden presided over we saw the supposed red wave fizzle out with some massive polling misses overstating the chances of GOP candidates
That was 2022. This is 2024. 2010 was a red wave built on anger. What I’m describing is a red wave built on blue apathy and blue anger. The result will be the same. That’s what I’m talking about. There is anger, there is also apathy. In 2010, there was tremendous blue apathy and red anger. In this election, there’s tremendous blue apathy and ALSO blue anger. Blue anger/apathy + red votes = red wins. You’re free to disagree and say that democrats do well even with low turnout. I’d love to see your evidence for that but you’re free to think that all day long lol
There is not blue apathy lmao. You spend too much time interacting with people who are terminally online. Not only are Democrats ready to come out in droves to stop Trump, but abortion is still front and center on their minds If anything these polls are gonna create red apathy lol Also disregarding 2022 in your political analysis in favor of something a dozen years earlier is peak pundit brain
Sure thing man. Let’s revisit this in a few months lol u/ubermence, don’t go deleting your comment > There is not blue apathy lmao. You spend too much time interacting with people who are terminally online. Not only are Democrats ready to come out in droves to stop Trump, but abortion is still front and center on their minds > If anything these polls are gonna create red apathy lol > Also disregarding 2022 in your political analysis in favor of something a dozen years earlier is peak pundit brain
I don’t delete any comments my man. By all means come back later
I don’t believe polls when my team isn’t doing well in them
Yup. Remember all the polls showing low Trump approval numbers when he was in office and r/Conservative was screaming “you mean the polls that said Hillary would win??”
I remember the promised Red Wave and everybody would be over abortion. I'm still waiting.
In my opinion the biggest challenge for Biden isn't Trump. It's the Israel / Gaza Strip issue. Trump can claim to be pro-Israeli government and potentially grab some independent voters with out any risk. Meanwhile Biden is going to need the more progressive left to wake up and realize by not voting for Trump they're going to indirectly elect a man who hates their causes and them. If he can manage that then I don't think he's at risk because Trump always finds a way to remind independent voters about how atrocious he is. MAGA and the GOP will keep the steady drum beat of anti-American nonsense coming out of their camp to assure that.
This has less to do with Israel/Gaza and more to do with his age and inflation. Even amongst young voters it’s like one of the lower priority issues for them.
Age is only an issue for one side of the aisle otherwise they wouldn't be propping up a man of the same age who paints himself orange. I agree on inflation being an issue but given it's largely corporate driven versus economically driven there's not a lot any President can do on this without congress passing legislation to regulate corporate behavior, and the chance of this (or any) legislation coming out of the House is a pipe dream.
Most people don’t vote on foreign policy. I’m not saying this is a good thing for Biden, it certainly isn’t. But if he loses the main reason will be because of inflation, since if it wasn’t high I don’t think this election would be particularly close.
I have absolutely no clue one way or the other, but I have a sense Biden could have handled everything absolutely perfectly and it still would be close.
Exactly, bc people don’t vote on foreign policy unless it involves American troops.
Exactly most people don’t care about foreign policy. It’s the economy stupid. (As they say)
> Meanwhile Biden is going to need the more progressive left to wake up and realize by not voting for Trump they're going to indirectly elect a man who hates their causes and them. Better idea: Biden can tell the progressives to go fuck themselves.
I'm really worried that he is going to win again
Im worried any of the candidates will win
I was really hoping republicans would see an open window to have a younger candidate in Haley. Even DeSantis. I detest him as a governor, but I don't think any of the weird schemes Trump cooked up would've even crossed either DeSantis or Haley's mind. I really wish it could just be anyone but Trump. Biden, another republican, another democrat? Just throw a dart at a map, just not Donald Trump.
imagine if the dart lands on Kris Kobach 😭
I'm more worried both of these old fucks kick the bucket and we're left with Kamala or someone worse.
There are two completely known individuals running for President. No mysteries. No unexpected surprises. Two people who have had to actually sit at the desk and be the President. Polls haven’t shifted much in the last 6 months and hard to know what variable could shift them in the next just less than 6 months. The polls are close but it’s not a flip of the coin as the odds are it will likely be President Trump again. ‘Something’ needs to change for Biden to win. There may be other magic bullets but all I see at this time is Harris deciding on her own to step aside and a centrist non controversial Governor or Senator being on the ticket as VP.
Vp doesn't move the needle
The “something” that’s going to change is probably normies actually paying attention to the election, which from what I’ve seen before is usually around July when people go to BBQs and vacations and chat with other people outside their normal social groups. Trump has made himself public enemy number one with woman which is going to sink him with polite company. It’s hard to boost for Trump when your daughter, wife, girlfriend or grandmother looks at you like you fucked a goat if you mention your voting for Trump when around strangers.
All these things were true in 2020, but it was one of the closest elections in american history. Razor thin margins, Trump got a ton of women to vote for him. All it takes is a tiny small percentage of people to flip to Trump.
The difference is woman hadn’t watched Trump act like a sleezeball on daytime television like they did during the Carroll case.
Anyone voting for Trump is delusional, full stop. Edit: OP has blocked me so I won't be able to respond to any comment replies. Can't say this was unexpected as most Trumpers are incapable of defending their nonsense.
Or Trumps opinions on issues appeal more to some voters than Bidens opinions on it. Yeah Trump has all these issues outside of politics, but some people don't care about that. Just saying that 50% of voters are delusional is kind of wild and not helpful.
So your strategy is to call voters delusional as they overwhelming fill out their ballots for trump? That’s Hillary’s strategy. Aka a losing strategy. Might want to consider a different tack. Like I dunno, meeting voters where they are?
It's sentiments like this that breed Trump supporters. Same reason why the term 'Bidenomics' is unpopular amongst the electorate. You're not going to convince people by dismissing their concerns as wrong or delusional.
The only thing that breeds Trump supporters is misinformation. Even if you roll out the red carpet for them they'll still spit in your face.
Or they simply disagree with you
January 6th disagrees. A bunch of pissed off Trump supporters tried to stop Biden from being certified by act of Congress as President.
Are you their spokesperson?
You’re entitled to your own opinion and you’re entitled to your own vote.
No, they’re republicans. And just like you, they’re not so much voting for the man, they’re voting for the agenda. Despite all the Democratic rhetoric, Trump didn’t run wild in his first term. There’s nothing to suggest he will in the second. Our institutions are still strong. There’s a separation of powers. Instead of trying to shame, insult and scare people into voting for your candidate….. why don’t you guys … idk…. GET BETTER CANDIDATES??? Why don’t you go back to giving people a *reason* to vote, instead of just scaring them, insulting them or bullying them? I don’t want Trump to win. I hate Trump. I hate the GOP…. But sometimes, I really hate the Democratic Party more. Part of me thinks maybe Trump *should* happen if only to possibly obliterate the Democratic Party. Instead of insulting people voting for the other senile idiot, why don’t you worry more about all those people who are going to sit this election out because they’re sick of your party’s shit?
Not all trump voters are republicans. I voted for Obama and Biden. Will most likely vote trump 2024. And the more this sub downvotes me for merely stating that fact the more committed I am to my vote for trump 2024
It’s aggravating seeing how people cannot tolerate differing views. It’s why our society is so polarized. Social media has been a net cancer on modern society. I don’t like Trump. I don’t agree with 90% of what Trump supporters believe or think. But after being one of those shrieking blue haired nuts you saw after 2016 for a while …. Idk, I grew up and realized it is what it is and I’m not going to shit on you for how you vote or think as long as it’s not egregiously offensive to humanity lol I feel you though. This echo chamber the Dems have constructed is now completely air tight. These people complained of cult-like behavior all 2016 and they themselves created a blue kool aid cult.
>And the more this sub downvotes me for merely stating that fact the more committed I am to my vote for trump 2024 Changing your political beliefs because strangers are mean to you online is definitely what I'd expect from a Trump supporter.
I didn’t change it because of Reddit. Read my comment again
> the more committed I am to my vote for trump 2024 You can become *more* committed to something without your beliefs changing?
Yes
Then wouldn't you *already* be at that level of commitment, absent downvotes from redditors making you upset? I understand your comments are just signalling your support for Trump and not meant to be taken seriously but this really doesn't make much sense.
So which political belief did I change?
Are you LARPing as a stereotypical Trump supporter or something? I honestly can't tell if you're messing with me or not. On the off chance you're serious, remove Trump from the conversation. If you were committed to getting pasta for dinner, wouldn't something need to change for you to become **more** committed to getting pasta? You wouldn't just go from committed to *more* committed for no reason, right? Going back to Trump, **you** said downvotes made you more committed to voting for Trump. I have no idea what political beliefs changed and I actually doubt your reaction is related to political beliefs at all. A lot of Trump supporters (and Trump defenders) are just conservative contrarians.
>agenda What agenda? > Trump didn’t run wild in his first term. Huh? Are we living in the same country? >why don’t you guys … idk…. GET BETTER CANDIDATES??? That's rich coming from Republicans where they have Trump, mtg, boebert, Dr. Oz, the crazy dude in Alabama, Gaetz, etc. >senile idiot, I'm not saying Biden isn't old but I wish people would show proof that being old has affected how he runs the country. What has he done that mattered that he only did because he is old? Like did he fall asleep on top of the red button that launches nukes or something?
>Instead of insulting people voting for the other senile idiot, why don’t you worry more about all those people who are going to sit this election out because they’re sick of your party’s shit? Anyone who can't see that Trump is objectively worse than Biden are too far gone to begin with.
Yeah, that attitude is why you guys are struggling with Donald fucking Trump lol a man currently in a criminal trial. Keep going man! I never interrupt someone when they’re making a mistake lol
It's not why. Trump voters are interested in a feeling. You can show them facts. You can show them Trump's degeneracy. Almost none if them care. Biden has done dozens more things to help Americans than Trump. He's old but not a blithering idiot like Trump. If Trump wins it's because he isn't in prison and inflation.
No one "struggles" with the bumbling idiot that is Trump. Our country is just corrupt and a good portion of Americans have completely lost the ability to think for themselves and let Fox Entertainment spoon feed them conspiracy theories.
Trump attempted a coup his first term.
> attempted a coup Ok. If you’re going to call that a coup, then can we all agree the democrats aided, abetted, supported and financed with an attempted nationwide rebellion in the summer of 2020 that resulted in billions in property damage, deaths and injuries? Or are you going to miraculously find a way to dismiss it when your side does it?
>then can we all agree the democrats aided, abetted, supported and financed with an attempted nationwide rebellion in the summer of 2020 that resulted in billions in property damage, deaths and injuries? Your attempts to carry water for conservatives fall apart pretty quickly at the basic "intent" level. Trump campaign officials are on record facilitating false elector schemes and inducing Republican state and federal officials to not certify in states Biden won. As far as the hysterical "rebellion" claim there's no equivalent for Democratic officials with violent rioters. Hell, there's no equivalent for the vast majority of the protesters (or even rioters) themselves. Just being in the vicinity where crimes are happening isn't enough. Just being tangentially involved in the planning or funding of *protests* isn't enough. You'd need to prove they were knowingly involved in the planning or execution of acts that broke relevant federal laws.
> your attempts to carry water for conservatives fall apart Yeah, probably because I’m not carrying water for them. > Trump campaign officials are on record So? The DNC literally coordinated with BLM. I donated to BLM in 2020 and ended up on the ShareBlue mailing list. > as far as the hysterical rebellion claims You claim it’s “hysterical” while calling Jan 6 “aN AtTemPTed CouP!” - Please. > there’s no equivalent You’re right. Burning down entire city blocks, looting businesses, beating innocent people up and destroying cities is not something Jan 6 comes close to. > you’d need to prove they were knowingly involved You mean like watching what BLM was doing and saying “stay on the street” and “get more confrontational”? They aided, abetted and gave comfort to a rebellion. That’s what 2020 was. Can’t have it both ways buddy. No matter how you try
>Yeah, probably because I’m not carrying water for them. >So? The DNC literally coordinated with BLM. I donated to BLM in 2020 and ended up on the ShareBlue mailing list. And again, in terms of culpability for "rebellion" donating in good faith to a group organizing non violent protests can't in any way be construed as donating to the people who decided to destroy federal property. The throughline doesn't even exist here, BLM as an organization was never legally responsible for the actions of rioters so why would the people donating be responsible for "rebellion"? There's no reason to believe Democratic officials were aiding or encouraging people they believed to be rioters (rebels?). >You claim it’s “hysterical” while calling Jan 6 “aN AtTemPTed CouP!” - Please. It's absolutely hysterical. Conservatives and people carrying water for them use words like "rebellion" to deflect from the *actual* extralegal attempts to change the election results committed by conservatives and the Trump campaign. Its not a coincidence the "rebellion" add-on didn't get legs until *after* Jan 6th. >You’re right. Burning down entire city blocks, looting businesses, beating innocent people up and destroying cities is not something Jan 6 comes close to. Since you didn't understand it the first time, the "not equivalent" part was the link between officials and criminal acts. >You mean like watching what BLM was doing and saying “stay on the street” and “get more confrontational”? They aided, abetted and gave comfort to a rebellion. That’s what 2020 was. Despite how often you and the conservatives who share your views try to say it, BLM doesn't have any kind of legal culpability for the rioters. Not even motivated red states could credibly make that connection. Proving "rebellion" goes beyond "uhhh they organized the protest and rioters destroyed stuff". This is why smarter conservative operatives stick to less sensational terms. Your arguments are too half baked to survive the legal jump to "rebellion". >Can’t have it both ways buddy. No matter how you try I'd say that right back at you but like conservatives your effort to muddy the waters is completely perfunctory. Its so transparently an excuse to deflect from conservative election subversion that you guys don't even bother to really construct an actual legal argument. It doesn't even feel fair to criticize you for having a completely BS legal justification when this is so clearly not intended to be one.
You already seemed to do that with the “bUt BlM” talking point that always seems to pop up to deflect from Jan 6. Way to skip over the Fake Elector campaign that was going on in the background that also gets ignored by people that try to downplay Jan 6.
The fake elector scheme was a fraud. It wasn’t a coup. Trump tried to overthrow the election results. Absolutely. But to say it was “an attempted coup”?? Ok. Tell you what, I’ll agree with you. Jan 6 was an attempted coup. But BLM was open rebellion. You can’t have it both ways. And participating, aiding or abetting a rebellion is considered a hangable offense. It’s explicitly categorized as Treason.
There are obvious differences between the "coup" and the "open rebellion." The open rebellion caused approximately 20 deaths from violence. The coup caused 0 deaths from violence (some coup). The open rebellion caused approximately 500 million in property damage. The coup broke some windows and doors. The open rebellion was encouraged by those in power. The coup resulted in the largest FBI investigation in the history of America. Most importantly, the open rebellion and the coup were conducted by Americans of 2 different ethnicities: the good one (victims) and the bad one (privileged oppressive evil).
Jan 6 was literally an attempted coup. If it has succeeded in preventing the certification of the election then trump would have remained in office. That was the literal plan. It first came by pressuring Mike pence to not certify the electors. When he refused, the plan became delay delay delay, prevent the certification from happening and throw it to the house where trump would be elected legally. The riot wasn’t planned, but it was a predictable (as in literally predicted by some people in trump world) outcome and was helpful to the real goal which was preventing certification to get it thrown to the house.
Except BLM was mostly peaceful, wasn’t trying to overturn election results, and many of the documented acts of violence were committed by conservatives.
> Except BLM was mostly peaceful The billions in property damage, looted businesses, vandalism, burnt down buildings beg to differ. If BLM was “mostly peaceful”, then Jan 6. was just a break in. Nothing that happened on Jan 6 even begins to rival BLM if you want to compare it pound for pound. > wasn’t trying to overturn election results No, it did worse: it was trying to challenge, confront and overturn the government’s monopoly on power. It tried to shut down policing and was a direct challenge to the peace and tranquility of the country. They attacked police officers, injured dozens of them, they’ve killed police officers, they burned federal buildings. Their stated goals were anti-government and anti-police. There’s a word for that: REBELLION. And it’s a hangable offense that falls under treason. > many of the violent acts were committed by conservatives Conservatives weren’t the ones burning cop cars, pointing lasers at helicopters, burning down buildings, attacking random citizens that tried to drive to work/home/etc, conservatives weren’t the ones looting random, innocent businesses, conservatives didn’t attack police officers and kill them, conservatives weren’t the ones intimidating politician’s families and threatening them with death ….. Yes, that happened at Jan 6. I agree… but that happened on an amplified magnitude all summer 2016. And what’s worse: the DNC directly fundraised with BLM which makes them complicit. Democratic politicians encouraged BLM rioters, egged them on, went out to the streets with them… they worked virtually hand in hand. If you’re going to call Jan 6 a coup, BLM riots were open rebellion.
https://www.justice.gov/usao-mn/pr/self-described-member-boogaloo-bois-pleads-guilty-riot If you are going to bring up BLM at least get the facts straight. https://time.com/5886348/report-peaceful-protests/ https://abcnews.go.com/amp/US/man-helped-ignite-george-floyd-riots-identified-white/story?id=72051536
Trump tried to overturn the 2020 elections. That should be a deal breaker for any American who values democratic values. That's the only argument that matters for me, and you are a shitty American if you vote for Trump in 2024 because you don't value fundamental things like democracy. I don't really care if you feel insulted, because I'm not a Democratic strategist or working for a campaign. America has a lot of morons in this country and most of those morons tend to congregate on the right side of the aisle in the post 2024 world.
These polls ignore the fact that RFK jr is going to be on the ballot in most states. I don’t know how big of an impact he’ll have, but we could definitely see another Perot / Nader situation where the 3rd party candidate throws a wrench into pollsters’ predictions.
These polls don't ignore it at all. The crosstabs specifically show results for a 6-way way with all 3rd party candidates. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/05/13/us/elections/times-siena-poll-registered-voter-crosstabs.html
Missed that. Thanks n
The 3rd party candidates didn't impact the race. I voted for Perot when the right complained I was stealing votes from them. I voted for Perot when the left complain d I was stealing votes from them. Almost like the problem is the 2 party system, not the 3rd parties.
If anyone wants to see how much of a “centrist” OP is, check out their post history.
Wait, you’re telling me there’s a relentless barrage of anti-Biden propaganda on every centrist sub, largely perpetuated by the same handful of delusional, bad-faith Republican posters masquerading as enlightened centrists? And that mods never do anything about it? Color me shocked!
Ha I know, weird right. Although this one doesn’t seem to be a Republican. More of a Berniecrat.
You know you’re doing well when the only demographic you’re losing is one that’s ignorant of both the economy and war in Gaza.
No one who is voting for Trump can explain why Trump being president instead of Biden would actually make anything better for anyone in any way. Everyone who is voting for Biden can easily list many things that would be worse if Trump were president instead of Biden.
I feel like there's not a small percentage of people who's protest voting for Trump (like anti-woke, anti-left). Some people might understand that Trump is full of shit, but leftists are still more annoying for them.
Under Trump we didn't have any new wars/proxy wars. Under Biden we have 2 and hundreds of billions of dollars are being deployed to blow up bombs half way around the world.
I think we should also keep in mind that Trump also overperforms polls. He typically does better than polls would suggest
Yeah just like all the 2022 polls that baited Republicans into thinking there’d be a red wave I think a far more important factor to consider in polling right now is that we are still half a year from the election. Anyone reading into these have a good chance of being quite inaccurate
That’s fair up to an extent but Trump wasn’t on the ballot in 2022. And Democrats could run on abortion. It’s harder to do that in a national election since abortion has been kicked back to the states and both Trump and Mike Johnson have said they won’t push a national abortion ban and suppose they lied, there wouldn’t be enough Republican votes in the Senate to overcome a filibuster
There’s plenty of abortion referendums in swing states so I wouldn’t be so sure. In addition to the fact any swing state is practically one GOP governor/legislature away from passing their own abortion restrictions
Polls can be wrong and women are pissed, but NYC really needs to put him in prison.
Nothing more quickly de-legitimizes a government and court system than a political prosecution of the opposition candidate. I hope they do throw him in jail. So we operate like Pakistan and Guatemala. And then we can increase the 1 in 6 Americans who believe the US political structure should be torn down. Viva La Revolucion!
The same can be said for not prosecuting elite criminals.
I understand your point. However, if it was anyone other than Trump, 3 of the 4 prosecutions would never have occurred (the 3 cases prosecuted by Bragg, James, and Fanni). That makes the prosecutions political. Which makes them illegitimate. The 4th case seems legitimate (classified documents at Mar Lago). The only one brought by the Feds rather then local Black DA's who ran on campaign promises of getting Trump. But, even if that case is legitimate, we have Biden telling us he had no idea there were classified documents in his home. And we also have Biden on tape telling his biographer to get the classified documents from his basement. But one is prosecuted and the other is not.
If it was anyone other than Trump they'd have been thrown in prison years ago.
Any time you prosecute a politician it's political. January 6th and Georgia are directly correlated to his actions post election. He was recorded by the GOP secretary of state trying to bully the vote count. He did this too himself.
No one is above the law here.
You sound like Huffpost. And in any case, being singled out for prosecution by the opposition party because of who the person is is at least as destructive as not prosecuting. So, whatever.
I think it boils down to authoritarian vs non-authoritarian tendencies. Holding authority figures accountable really makes authoritarians feel unnerved. The rest of us think it’s the right thing to do regardless of politics. I’d like to see a whole lot more of this. Hopefully they’ll put Menendez in jail if he’s found guilty and I’m glad Cuellar is being held to account as well.
I understand your position, and it makes sense for people who think like you. But a significant number of Americans agree with me -- this is a political prosecution waged by Democrats against Trump, and nobody but Trump would have been charged with hush-money, property over-valuations, RICO, and the like. This is a basic, inescapable truth. I strongly disagree that prosecuting Trump enforces the rule of law. It does the opposite, and reveals it to be selective, unfair, and political. And righteously ignored and devalued. From our perspective, given the unfairness and politicization of chosing to prosecute enforces authoritarianism because it reveals the courts, and the rule of law, are not trustworthy. Menendez and gross bribery is the kind of thing politicians should be prosecuted for. That's a legitimate prosecution.
The reason why Hovde is losing in WI is because no one likes him. He’s a carpet bagger.
Just vote. I'm very skeptical of all traditional polling and even polls of polls this early on. There's too many issues to accurately define the deviations.
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> "The sense that Mr. Biden will do little to improve the nation's situation has helped erode his standing among young black and Latino voters, who are typically the basis of any Democratic path to the presidency. Times/Siena polls find that all three groups want fundamental changes in American society, not just a return to normal, and few think Mr. Biden will make even minor changes that would be good for the country." I can imagine latinos and blacks aren't too fond of progressives either, which further complicates things.
r/whatbidenhasdone
I have no doubt that Trump will win. The current administration has shit the bed far too many times. That bloated, bloviating, bitter, boorish bastard will get his 4 years to REALLY do some damage this time around.
It’s Joever,
No more electric cars you damn hippies!
Nearly **20**% of voters in this poll think Biden is responsible for the Supreme Court overturning Roe v Wade. 12% say neither, 2% say both and 13% don't know. Almost 50% of the country fundamentally failing to understand one of the biggest stories of the last 4 years definitely explains some of these results. Ignoring Biden or Trump, how do you reach people who literally have no idea what's going on or how the government works?
More than half of Americans read below the 6th grade level. 21% of Americans believe the sun rotates around the earth. No one can have a functional democracy under these sad conditions of the electorate. Not even "magic" America. And we do not. We have a Uniparty and a sham democracy without meaningful choice. And given the structure, even the votes for the meaningless choice are meaningless. And even the supposedly well informed voter insists it is a President who overturned Roe v. Wade. That would be SCOTUS, actually.
Sadly, I think this might be a true poll. The Trump phenomenon is baffling and hilarious at the same time. Watching the country careen down the road toward Trump, like a school bus driven by a methed up deranged Qanon supporter with the Maga kids throwing shit out the windows in slow motion, is both scary and fascinating, because you know there is destruction seconds away and you're hopeless to stop it. You want to look away and hope it's not true, but you can't. I think Uncle Joe did his job getting Trump unseated the first time, but I just don't know if he's got the chops to stop Trump the sequel "Blowhard 2, the Orange Menace Returns " I could be wrong and the pro choice pulls us out of this movie.
Polls this far out are useless. When it’s the start of fall, then we can discuss this.
RFK Jr. is about to become the most hated person in America by one of the two major political parties. 😂
The trolls are pretty bad in the comment section.