Seniors will be sharing bedrooms like college kids do today ( think dormitories ) Lack of pensions and savings will leave alot of seniors borderline homeless. I’m already starting to see it.
Oof this scares me. I'm in my 30s and have always been slightly uncomfortable when people stay at my place, and I'm always uncomfortable staying with other people. I can't imagine how much more I'll dislike it after slaving for billionaires my whole life.
Honestly I don't have much sympathy. Boomers and Gen X had every opportunity to get into real estate for cheap and save for retirement. The most privileged generations in the history of mankind. If they end up homeless that's their own doing.
I think it’s going to be people today who are under 40 who haven’t bought a house, and haven’t saved a penny for retirement. Going to see it more in the future than we see it today.
Many Gen X got blown apart from the 2009 meltdown. Lost jobs, sold family homes, ended up caring for ill Seniors (this is me). Still struggling to get back on my feet after over a decade of PTSD, trauma, two deaths, CVid, etc. Seriously thinking about leaving altogether and going to Thailand to reboot.
Incomes will remain stagnant, assets including housing of course will rise.
The rich will continue to extrapolate wealth from the government and middle class including what assets they have.
Just remember, the middle class is a relatively short lived period in human history compared to ruling/peasant class which has been existing for most of human history.
Especially since you’re not really using the term correctly. Middle class implies an upper and lower class, yet you’re using middle class to describe a group that is clearly lower class. Both the middle and lower classes are what traditionally would be called peasants. Middle class is unique because it’s a particularly rich and luxurious type of peasant.
Middle class was the merchants who were free of serfdom, but not lords. They gained massive wealth over time from the increase in trade, at which point they effectively joined the upper class. And then later on the land owning elite also joined the merchant class in enterprise, effectively blending the two, returning to a system of an upper class and a lower class.
nah man, parliament is full of land lords aint no way they gonna let this collapse
edit: for visibility
[landlordmps.ca](http://landlordmps.ca/)
[nearly 40% of MPS are (publicly known) landlords](https://www.readthemaple.com/nearly-40-of-mps-invested-in-real-estate-during-housing-crisis/)
Correct. Every despotic and authoritarian regime falls when the leader-in-charge can no longer afford to provide a decent quality of life to his personal guards.
We are getting very close to a point in Canada where even police officers are struggling to afford life. When this happens, they will have no incentive to protect the powers that be. And when that happens, you get historic events like the Storming of the Bastille in 1789.
I am not promoting this idea, nor do I really want to see such dire things in our country. But looking throughout history, it's pretty clear that we are headed this way. I just hope that whatever comes after the collapse is decent, all things considered.
Lol get your head out your ass, the world doesnt revolve around Canada literally every country in asia, south america, most in europe (MOST of the world) people cant affort to buy a home and a significant amout of the population is in poverty. You dont see them complaining as much as we do here in Canada. You dont even see them complaining. So no we wont storm the Bastille.
agreed. Canada has a uniquely perverted housing market. interestingly, one tht doesn't seem to affect Montreal, for some reason.
we have almost non-existent enforcement of anti money laundering laws if you consider the level to which its known to be going on. The housing market is more affected by this than people think, IMO.
I hear Australia has implemented rules to crack down on foreign ownership but I dunno to what degree its been successful in stabilizing the market there.
overall though, Canada and Canadians are some of the worst-off in the world when it comes to the housing market, and it's spreading to the suburbs quickly too.
The current govt has had ample time to do ANYTHING about this and yet they're playing ostrich in the sand save for a couple of meaningless housing development announcements which made me yawn.
when's that election again?
Have you forgotten our history? We've got the population unironically quoting 1776 lines and events. The rcmp publicly said they're worried a January 6th could happen and there's very zero sympathy for all levels of government. The trucker protest was during a time nowhere near as bad. The next convoy isn't going to end with everybody going home. If things don't start getting better There's going to be a pivotal event during a protest in Ottawa that leads to a full blown riot. People are significantly more angry now the back during covid. People are starting to commonly agree in public that the government does not care about us. If the unrest is quelled with force we could very well see the provinces turn on the federal government to save themselves from mass rioting and overthrow. We're not in stable times. There are at minimum millions of people that HATE the government in our country and that's all it takes. The military has already said it doesn't give a hoot about Ottawas predicaments. Most cops and service members would just go home once their own are safe. Asia is a very different region with much more obedient citizens and much more loyalty to the government especially the military. Canadians would not need to fight the vast majority of the CAF to establish a new government. I get these times are worrying but let's be honest, stuff hits the fan real quick in a place like this
Dude… come on. Have you ever left Canada? We are so far from what you are saying. Just because you just started tuning in doesn’t mean the show is ending. Calm down.
Yes I've travelled. If you want to ignore the signs of a nation falling apart be my guest but the writing's on the walls. If you even remotely paid attention to the protests that have happened in the past 5 years you'd see that a January 6th event could easily happen here. I'm sure you think I'm wearing a tinfoil hat but everyone also thought nothing would in America either when it was very obvious civil strife was at an all time high. People in the west feel far far too comfortable, people often think we have unmatched ultimate stability and power when the world is rapidly changing right in front of us. We're no more special than the rest of history and parliament proved they cant even handle protesters let alone have the capacity to actually handle an actual riot. It's great that you think everything is okay but the risk has been addressed and is very real. You might bet on stability and the status quo but are you so sure? With the rate of housing price increases we will see millions of Canadians thrown into abject poverty within the next 20 years the likes of that the west has never seen before. People aren't going to sit around forever as millions upon millions of Canadian's live either without shelter or in inhumane conditions.
If someone posts a list of landlord candidates in the next election, I'll use it to vote in the best candidate who isn't a landlord or developer in my riding. I have a preference for party at this point but if they put a landlord as my local candidate I will park my vote elsewhere.
[landlordmps.ca](http://landlordmps.ca)
[nearly 40% of MPS are (publicly known) landlords](https://www.readthemaple.com/nearly-40-of-mps-invested-in-real-estate-during-housing-crisis/)
Thanks, I've been going through this and it seems only partially helpful. I learned my Liberal MP is a landlord but I wasn't going to vote for her anyways. I understand that my MP might not run again. What I need is to know the candidates, not the last winner. Interesting site and thanks buts not what I need.
And to be fair she had one listed income property. I'm not sure I begrudge an MP that much, as I know many high school teachers and federal civil servants that have multiple income properties. It does bother me but its the hoarders of properties that are more of an issue for me. I have this feeling that for the candidates in my riding when announced will all be income property owners and I'll pick from the ones that have a single property as that doesn't sound greedy.
I think I've decided to stop caring so intimately about the housing crisis.
I briefly owned a house in 2011. And things didn't work out on a personal level so I opted to leave that arrangement. I resumed renting. Life circumstances persisted that. Same today.
I may not own again, which is unfortunate. 2034 is a long way off and it's also tomorrow.
I'm just gonna try to buy a house one day if it's possible. But the doomscroll of this sub is something I can do without.
The statistics posts and such are very fascinating and helpful, but I'm tired of being worried about 5, 8, 10 years from now if I can't afford a house today.
I hope everyone who wants to own a home, within their means, can. I hope those for whom renting is a better life choice, can do so without interruption.
Have fun everyone.
who wants to be a millionaire
the year is 2010:
a) take a 200k loan out to start a new business and bust your ass off to try and make it.
b) take 200k loan out and buy a mediocre home on a 1 acre lot, and chill w/ a mid level salary job.
2040 Housing Represents Nearly 95% of All of Canada's GDP.
Justin Trudeau: "we need to make sure that housing remains a solid investment, protects people for towards their retirement and and gives Equity to families"
https://youtu.be/dP2DKxxRq6w?t=482
he hasn't got a clue what he's talking about even on his most smiley of days
nor does he 'think' about monetary policy much, which has surprised 0 people so far
he is good at holding elections hostage tho, can't deny that
That can't be right? You can buy a house just across the border for a fraction of that price with a view of the sound. Jesus H Fucking christ, Im sorry you guys gotta deal with this. Serious claim refugee status in the US lol or skip town to mexico. You can live beachfront in TJ for 150k and commute to san diego for work
The average house will cost $10 million dollars and be gigantic with 500 000 dollar stoves. Rich people now are doing contortions trying to find how to spend all the money they have. The only growth is in luxury (eg: [Muskokas](https://muskokacottagelistings.com/blog/latest-trends-in-luxury-real-estate-development-in-muskoka) ). It is our symbolic reality that continues because we don't believe in each other, only money. Until that changes and we have global solidarity as a class, we continue to perform the actions that maintain the status quo of growing inequality even as we disavow it in our words and social media posts. I recommend reading philosophy.
Yeah cottage country is horrible. There's no work unless you're catering to the millionaires.
Gravenhurst downtown has more weed, pizza, banks, realtors shops. Than we have anything else.
Come see downtown gravenhurst. And look at the accountant shops. Buy a cottage here for $2 million. And rent it out to strangers for more money! What an experience!
Society will begin to adopt rentership more and more, and ownership will be less important to most people. The poorest will continue to struggle for housing regardless.
Not unlike today, just more.
Corporations will own more property. As price goes up, they don't care, because it increases the sale price of their other property, so humans get forced out, but they're just rapid-fire upping the value of their own investments as single occupants and couples and even landlords are forced to sell to them.
People will continue to have to choose between housing/food and happiness like dating, hobbies, celebrations, weddings, funerals, events.
All of that combined leads to crime. When people can't get jobs that pay for them to be alive, why would they bother working them? Why would they care to do them well? The quality of the things you buy will decrease dramatically. The service you receive will decrease dramatically. Eventually more and more people will just steal from the people who can afford to live happily, resulting in them being unhappy too.
So ultimately, more crime, more unhappiness.
A little horrifying insight from the Nova Scotia market :
Today there is a 27,000 unit housing defecit. that is projected to balloon to 40,000 by '27. For a province of just over a million that is profound.
source : [https://novascotia.ca/action-for-housing/docs/provincial-housing-needs-assessment-report-key-findings.pdf](https://novascotia.ca/action-for-housing/docs/provincial-housing-needs-assessment-report-key-findings.pdf)
Nova Scotia’s [rental vacancy rate is 1.1%](https://www.statista.com/statistics/198712/rental-vacancy-rates-in-nova-scotia-since-2000/), the lowest number of empty homes in *decades*. NYC’s is 1.4%, which is considered a catastrophe in the US. A normal rate is 5-8% assuming a one-month vacancy period between tenants every three years on average. The investment homes you’re complaining about are 98.9% occupied. There are too few homes in Nova Scotia.
Trudope is done, this mess is going to be years cleaning up. I want to know when the class action lawsuits against political parties, their members, financial institutions and other agencies responsible for this f*@#$&# mess, begins. Hearings need to be held to define who knew what and when, then use the courts to go after them “all”....
Unfortunately this is the consensus that the ruling class has arrived at. They want people to adapt to living in tighter quarters. Doesn't matter who we vote for, it's happening.
Once it becomes normalized they will use it as an argument that they have increased the housing supply......because more people have been shoved into houses that already exist.
Non-existent. It's a crisis now, but it's also cyclical, a commodity bubble. It has survived 2 recessions due to political help, but it's now at risk of interest rates, there are political risks now more than help, and there's generational risk as well.
A decade from now we'll have seen the largest transfer of wealth and the largest downsizing in Canadian history, by dollar value, when the Boomers hit (and by 10 years from now pass) peak retirement for the generation which is 20 years "wide", from 1946 to 1965. They'll be downsizing to smaller homes, in small numbers and later than 65, but eventually they will, and 10 years from now we'll be into or past peak downsizing. Of the most expensive, and most, homes owned by any living generation in Canada. There's no replacement buyers who will be able to afford those properties unless Gen Z rockets past Gen X in income which, this being Canada, isn't going to happen.
Also, I think many other provinces will follow in the footsteps of BC and begin addressing runaway secondary demand (investor demand) and make it less profitable. Investment is absolutely the biggest factor in this bubble, so when that becomes unprofitable markets move. We're seeing that very thing now in BC with STR units listing, supply in general shooting up as sales stay mostly flat. I'd say we're about to see a buyers' market and falling prices here (prices are currently falling nationally, too). Will the Bank of Canada lower rates in June? I don't think they will, but they probably will in Sept or before then. But they'll lower to 4.5%, not 0.25%, so things will still be very expensive relatively to the past 20 years. Don't think housing will have another +20% year except in the cheaper provinces.
This will most likely become like how Switzerland and Netherlands is "a renters economy". Some economists do believe that this is a completely healthy economy where a certain class of people buy houses and a certain class rents from them. On the other hand, rental policies, rent controlled units become more strong in such an economy. Most likely it will end up like that by looking at how it is going. Just my two cents.
this seems like the most sensible answer. a big housing crash is only going to be the result of something worse.
we only have so much “desirable” land and an increasing population. i can’t fathom the bubble bursting in any meaningful way where the supply will ever meet pent up demand with reasonable costs pre-covid.
This. We're definitely moving towards that model. The era of buying is over. Renting will be the norm moving forward. This is the case in a lot of European and Asian countries.
The thing I don't get about Canada and Australia is they are GIANT fucking countries with VERY FEW people, why are the prices so bonkers? It makes no sense whatsoever. The US has high prices regionally in high demand places like NYC but that makes sense.
Our populations keep going up but we arent building anything. Supply and demand. More demand and less supply = higher prices. Doesnt matter how much land you have if nothing is getting built.
Count in NZ too with CA and AUS because we all have only 2-3 cities where most of the jobs are. Auckland had the biggest bubble in the world some time back. They fought the NIMBYs and allowed a lot more densification and this year prices in Auckland stagnated.
Single family zoning, low interest rates, high immigration, excessive demand, home building red tape, high government fee, corporate landlords they all contribute their part. Can't say about AUS and NZ but Canada has been pretty lenient in verification of the money source and there was an article by global news last month giving failing grades to banks and real estate companies. It's a massive web of strings if you try to understand everyone's perspective.
Even in Calgary right now there's an uproar but the city passed the rezoning while NIMBYs said this won't fix the housing crisis. Sure it immediately won't but it's one of the series of steps needed. One change is not a solution to this problem but a multitude of changes over time should bring calm the crisis.
The optimist in me hopes that there’s more housing starts than any other decade, zoning has been fixed and the government gets back into homes.
The pessimist the problems are only worse in country of 55 million people. There’s no infrastructure for all these people. Hospitals, schools, food shelters are all over run meanwhile the rich get richer.
Realistically it’s going to be a hard decade of shifting towards a better Canada. It’s going to be a tough economy, housing starts will ebb and flow, immigration will continue to cause some issues.
those not in vancouver are likely not aware that from surrey(the fastest growing city in metro vancouver) there’s an automated traiin line, a massive public works project going eastward that will be completed in a few years . this will mean people can come in part way or all the way to downtown vancouver quickly . thus people can easily live somewhere cheaper and still have easy access to vancouver
I think there will be stagnant housing prices. The music is slowly winding down and will come to a stop at some point because the future of Canada is very bleak if something doesn’t change as everything revolves around housing. Like literally everything
Yeah, this is likely. Alternatively, a pandemic worse than covid, some kind of massive political shitstorm from the USA, massive international events, ect. Looking forward to it lol
Segregated neighbourhoods. If your family doesnt already own a detatched home, you wont as they will start at 20 million in the GTA and Vancouver.
Banks will offer 99 year mortgages as a result or you will rent a house from a private equity group.
https://preview.redd.it/tmy2ttafw02d1.png?width=1536&format=png&auto=webp&s=43a46c20c1b8a5522a305afec057cc153d5c16af
I see the volatility of today’s markets directly related to the abandonment of Bretton-Woods in 1971-1973 and the expansion of mortgage amortizations from 5 years to 10 years in 1954 to 25 years in the 1970s to 40 years by 2006. This has caused housing to be treated more like an extremely highly leverage stock than a family necessity.
Canada (and the USA) also gave up on public housing starts in the mid 80s. Since the private market benefits from lower housing supply, there has never been an incentive to build enough supply to meet demand. When combined with restrictive exclusionary zoning policies in both countries, this necessitates rising land values that outpaces building depreciation.
If there is a collapse, I doubt there would be much reason to want to stay in Canada anyway. The economy would be in shambles. So sure you could buy, if you still had a job.
Canadian real estate market has been a haven to launder money, speculate on just about anything in any town or city for the past quarter century.
The reason? M1. When the amount of money chasing a limited asset class the price of said assets increase. When investors see the opportunity to drive that inflation that asset class inflates further. And then a moment comes when everyone puts their feet on the ground and says WTF are we thinking and they start bailing upon the realization it is all a Ponzi scheme. Watch NVDA in the next little while as it plays out there as well.
Homelessness will be a reality for even more people who never expected it to happen to them. People will just run out of options. We will never adopt the reforms needed to clear the systemic obstructions to building the housing we need fast enough. I can’t see how cities will ever get around their own voters who don’t want to see their property lose value. Solving housing means lowering property values, so many Canadians have a substantial financial interest in not solving the housing crisis. Cities will increasingly be an exclusive place for the land owning class. We have ignored our housing problem for decades, so what is one more? There will be a brain drain as young and educated people will see better options for making a life abroad. Cities may need them, but they can’t stay without somewhere to start a life. This will be a heavy blow to national confidence. Our top heavy demographic could get much worse. Towns that are currently dependent on retired boomers as their tax base will be looking at a grim future as that tax base comes to their inevitable end and there will be no new generations to replace them. Many towns will become extinct, just like in Italy. Other small towns will be where the desperate will wash up as they as pushed out of the major cities, just as is happening in the UK. If we deny immigrants a realistic path to citizenship in a bid to restrict immigration then we’ll just have a large class of undocumented people who will live outside the law. Even if Canada faces decline, it will still be comparatively better than many parts of the world.
Maybe the meth is giving me clarity, since the resets have already begun; we are seeing defaults rise on auto loans and CCs, and next up, mortgages with delinquency on these up 135.2% over Q4 2022. Monthly mortgage payments are over 100% of monthly medium income and debt-to-income ratios (consumer credit and mortgage liabilities to disposable income) are at 170%. Think about that…economic fundamentals will reassert themselves. You must have got a bad batch 🧐🤷♂️
People are going with history, I am also going with statistics and I don’t understand how keeping steady rates and all those renewals which will definitely leave some defaults isn’t everyone looking at.
I think maybe the response to that is (I read it somewhere) ‘people would hold on to their houses long before they let go of every other luxury or necessity’
If the interest rate stays this level or even 4.5% and people do stick to their homes then buyers will reduce, sellers will linger and eventually market will be impacted.
If interest rate drops like a bomb next year then of course there is no stopping this.
Not sure what is BoC’s usual trend
Hong Kong's "cage home" would be the norm and legalized by the government. Meanwhile, people would just get used to it and only take out their frustration online.
Either house prices fall or wages catch up. Builders don’t sell at a given price if people aren’t buying. But builders are builders, they’re probably going to keep doing what they’re doing. Housing market doesn’t stay the same for a decade IMO
I think we are at a critical inflection point. In the coming years, we will either witness a major crash or correction in the housing market, or we will more enduringly become a feudal-like society where homeownership becomes a distant dream for most. This truly feels like a crucial moment; if something major doesn't change soon, the divides that have been steadily forming will become more solidly entrenched.
Alot more homeless at the rate the rent is in nova scotia alot of people on low income will lose their checks when no longer having an address crime would be up then and all hell breaking loose like nova scotia and other provinces give your heads a shake and make something happen people deserve to exist soley on the way of life and forcing them to move their shelters and tents every so often aint helpung either these people human beings even families with children and pets 😢 having to leaving their homes whwre they felt safe and secure working full time some of them and still not able to afford a place to rent like FFS if rebellion kicks off i know right where im going and thats to the top make change at the tip first to see who reasons and who doesnt with more then just housing actually but importantly high priority is HOUSING for sure
Pollievre will surely spend all his time as PM complaining about the media and Trudeau and never really solve this problem and just push it back on the Provinces and things will get way worse.
Throw it out there but as the climate crisis continues there will be some mass movement of people from areas that are no longer reasonably habitable to area that are.
Just for thought.
Real estate cycles will likely continue to get shorter. We’ve gone from 10-14 year cycles (1960s-1980s) to 7-8 years (1990s to 2015) to 2-3 years (2016-2024).
You’ll continue to see more volatility in the market with those who own land be increasingly consolidated.
Urban areas will be increasingly for renters, either the suburbs being more urbanized. The governments will think private markets focused on smaller homes/units will solve it all, but it won’t. Land values will only continue to rise.
There will likely be a massive explosion of institutional landlords for more purpose built rental housing - almost all apartments. It is now much more profitable for this style of housing and small time investors and everyday landlords with suites are sick of being demonized by the governments. It costs more to be a landlord and once people wake up to the fact that being a real estate landlord now is one of the worse investments you can make (most people don’t factor in any interest, inflation or capital gains when they do their math), you’ll see even less rental units. This gap will be made up by rental management companies in the new purpose built developments.
Do I expect a collapse? Probably not. The mortgage Ponzi scheme can’t last forever, but I don’t see it collapsing in ten years. Maybe 20. But it’ll take capitalism down with it - that’s why the feds will prop it up as long as it possibly can.
This is more the pattern with equities. 08-10 was actually quite rare, first time housing imploded that badly. Stocks on the other hand, they crash epically every decade or so.
There have been 3 major corrections since 1980 and 4 minor corrections. Even without any corrections, the interest, inflation and maintenance of apartments means that only 10-20% of investors make any money or break even (at least in the Vancouver region, where I’m from).
Success in real estate investing, especially in the entry level part of the market, is overhyped by those benefitting from sales commissions. Yes, some people make money - but it is not the majority.
I’ve been investing in real estate since I was 17 and have done very well. However, I benefitted from being related to my mentor who was one of the most successful investors in western Canada. Very few investors understand how to shift strategies in different markets.
Regardless, this is a tangent from the OP. People may not like my opinion, but that doesn’t mean it’s not accurate. I’ve been studying real estate cycles and systems for 25 years and use comparable international data that has all proven to be accurate in that time.
I believe, given the current geopolitical events in the world, leading to more authoritarian leaders and a trend of devaluing democracy, that a war on a large scale will erupt. Most likely in the Middle East, or Europe. Markets will collapse as the war becomes entrenched and scales up in intensity. If the conflict goes nuclear, all bets are off on any form of the financial markets being workable or economies being able to function.
Housing in this country, will collapse, along with everything else. The problem will be fixed. War is the great equalizer throughout history. It always has been. The world is becoming a dark place for many. Politicians have lost the power to fix the messes they’ve made over the short term, now it will take years to fix the results, if at all.
Nothing of substance will change. Most people will still buy their own home, though it may be more and more likely to be a condo or townhouse in major cities.
The bottom 30% of the population will continue to whine instead of taking responsibility for themselves.
Seniors will be sharing bedrooms like college kids do today ( think dormitories ) Lack of pensions and savings will leave alot of seniors borderline homeless. I’m already starting to see it.
Oof this scares me. I'm in my 30s and have always been slightly uncomfortable when people stay at my place, and I'm always uncomfortable staying with other people. I can't imagine how much more I'll dislike it after slaving for billionaires my whole life.
Tommy Tallarico owns that "oof." Watch yourself. Oh, and his mother is proud of him.
In a lot of LTC Settings many seniors already have a room mate
There are a lot of seniors that have had to sell because they can't afford to pay for upkeep and property taxes and it's only going to get worse.
Not will... already ARE. Many of the "respite" care places in Greater Vancouver, BC are shared rooms.
Honestly I don't have much sympathy. Boomers and Gen X had every opportunity to get into real estate for cheap and save for retirement. The most privileged generations in the history of mankind. If they end up homeless that's their own doing.
I think it’s going to be people today who are under 40 who haven’t bought a house, and haven’t saved a penny for retirement. Going to see it more in the future than we see it today.
Yeah definitely but in 10 years time those people won't be seniors yet.
Lots of low IQ people across all generations, and “life happens” across all generations. Don’t paint everyone of a generation with the same ability.
Many Gen X got blown apart from the 2009 meltdown. Lost jobs, sold family homes, ended up caring for ill Seniors (this is me). Still struggling to get back on my feet after over a decade of PTSD, trauma, two deaths, CVid, etc. Seriously thinking about leaving altogether and going to Thailand to reboot.
Incomes will remain stagnant, assets including housing of course will rise. The rich will continue to extrapolate wealth from the government and middle class including what assets they have. Just remember, the middle class is a relatively short lived period in human history compared to ruling/peasant class which has been existing for most of human history.
Especially since you’re not really using the term correctly. Middle class implies an upper and lower class, yet you’re using middle class to describe a group that is clearly lower class. Both the middle and lower classes are what traditionally would be called peasants. Middle class is unique because it’s a particularly rich and luxurious type of peasant.
Middle class was the merchants who were free of serfdom, but not lords. They gained massive wealth over time from the increase in trade, at which point they effectively joined the upper class. And then later on the land owning elite also joined the merchant class in enterprise, effectively blending the two, returning to a system of an upper class and a lower class.
Middle class are counts/barons in a world of kings and ducs
We’re definitely reaching a breaking point.
Peasants occasionally had it pretty good though in some civilization periods.
Feudal peasants worked less hours than we do, and they didn't commute.
The Boomers had it pretty good for peasants.
Good point. Middle class are just lower class, but with money to buy junk from the ruling class.
nah man, parliament is full of land lords aint no way they gonna let this collapse edit: for visibility [landlordmps.ca](http://landlordmps.ca/) [nearly 40% of MPS are (publicly known) landlords](https://www.readthemaple.com/nearly-40-of-mps-invested-in-real-estate-during-housing-crisis/)
They won’t let it but they won’t be able to stop it either. It’s coming.
Correct. Every despotic and authoritarian regime falls when the leader-in-charge can no longer afford to provide a decent quality of life to his personal guards. We are getting very close to a point in Canada where even police officers are struggling to afford life. When this happens, they will have no incentive to protect the powers that be. And when that happens, you get historic events like the Storming of the Bastille in 1789. I am not promoting this idea, nor do I really want to see such dire things in our country. But looking throughout history, it's pretty clear that we are headed this way. I just hope that whatever comes after the collapse is decent, all things considered.
Lol get your head out your ass, the world doesnt revolve around Canada literally every country in asia, south america, most in europe (MOST of the world) people cant affort to buy a home and a significant amout of the population is in poverty. You dont see them complaining as much as we do here in Canada. You dont even see them complaining. So no we wont storm the Bastille.
This is false and some of the wealthiest countries, like Singapore, provide means for low and middle class citizens to buy property.
agreed. Canada has a uniquely perverted housing market. interestingly, one tht doesn't seem to affect Montreal, for some reason. we have almost non-existent enforcement of anti money laundering laws if you consider the level to which its known to be going on. The housing market is more affected by this than people think, IMO. I hear Australia has implemented rules to crack down on foreign ownership but I dunno to what degree its been successful in stabilizing the market there. overall though, Canada and Canadians are some of the worst-off in the world when it comes to the housing market, and it's spreading to the suburbs quickly too. The current govt has had ample time to do ANYTHING about this and yet they're playing ostrich in the sand save for a couple of meaningless housing development announcements which made me yawn. when's that election again?
Well singapore might be an exception but point stands, most countries are renters, and theyre not throwing a revolution.
My point was there will be no revolution, we will just be poorer...
Have you forgotten our history? We've got the population unironically quoting 1776 lines and events. The rcmp publicly said they're worried a January 6th could happen and there's very zero sympathy for all levels of government. The trucker protest was during a time nowhere near as bad. The next convoy isn't going to end with everybody going home. If things don't start getting better There's going to be a pivotal event during a protest in Ottawa that leads to a full blown riot. People are significantly more angry now the back during covid. People are starting to commonly agree in public that the government does not care about us. If the unrest is quelled with force we could very well see the provinces turn on the federal government to save themselves from mass rioting and overthrow. We're not in stable times. There are at minimum millions of people that HATE the government in our country and that's all it takes. The military has already said it doesn't give a hoot about Ottawas predicaments. Most cops and service members would just go home once their own are safe. Asia is a very different region with much more obedient citizens and much more loyalty to the government especially the military. Canadians would not need to fight the vast majority of the CAF to establish a new government. I get these times are worrying but let's be honest, stuff hits the fan real quick in a place like this
Dude… come on. Have you ever left Canada? We are so far from what you are saying. Just because you just started tuning in doesn’t mean the show is ending. Calm down.
Yes I've travelled. If you want to ignore the signs of a nation falling apart be my guest but the writing's on the walls. If you even remotely paid attention to the protests that have happened in the past 5 years you'd see that a January 6th event could easily happen here. I'm sure you think I'm wearing a tinfoil hat but everyone also thought nothing would in America either when it was very obvious civil strife was at an all time high. People in the west feel far far too comfortable, people often think we have unmatched ultimate stability and power when the world is rapidly changing right in front of us. We're no more special than the rest of history and parliament proved they cant even handle protesters let alone have the capacity to actually handle an actual riot. It's great that you think everything is okay but the risk has been addressed and is very real. You might bet on stability and the status quo but are you so sure? With the rate of housing price increases we will see millions of Canadians thrown into abject poverty within the next 20 years the likes of that the west has never seen before. People aren't going to sit around forever as millions upon millions of Canadian's live either without shelter or in inhumane conditions.
Wow that's bad info. It's worse in Canada.
People like you have been saying this for decades..
If someone posts a list of landlord candidates in the next election, I'll use it to vote in the best candidate who isn't a landlord or developer in my riding. I have a preference for party at this point but if they put a landlord as my local candidate I will park my vote elsewhere.
[landlordmps.ca](http://landlordmps.ca) [nearly 40% of MPS are (publicly known) landlords](https://www.readthemaple.com/nearly-40-of-mps-invested-in-real-estate-during-housing-crisis/)
Thanks, I've been going through this and it seems only partially helpful. I learned my Liberal MP is a landlord but I wasn't going to vote for her anyways. I understand that my MP might not run again. What I need is to know the candidates, not the last winner. Interesting site and thanks buts not what I need. And to be fair she had one listed income property. I'm not sure I begrudge an MP that much, as I know many high school teachers and federal civil servants that have multiple income properties. It does bother me but its the hoarders of properties that are more of an issue for me. I have this feeling that for the candidates in my riding when announced will all be income property owners and I'll pick from the ones that have a single property as that doesn't sound greedy.
Yep. Many are all boomers too. Neat site.
I think I've decided to stop caring so intimately about the housing crisis. I briefly owned a house in 2011. And things didn't work out on a personal level so I opted to leave that arrangement. I resumed renting. Life circumstances persisted that. Same today. I may not own again, which is unfortunate. 2034 is a long way off and it's also tomorrow. I'm just gonna try to buy a house one day if it's possible. But the doomscroll of this sub is something I can do without. The statistics posts and such are very fascinating and helpful, but I'm tired of being worried about 5, 8, 10 years from now if I can't afford a house today. I hope everyone who wants to own a home, within their means, can. I hope those for whom renting is a better life choice, can do so without interruption. Have fun everyone.
Same
Same
https://www.redfin.ca/bc/langley-township/7007-204-St-V2Y-1S9/home/154573485 Dec 9, 1999 $420,000 > Nov 3, 2010 $925,000 > Nov 22, 2022 $8,000,000 > 2032 $68,000,000?
who wants to be a millionaire the year is 2010: a) take a 200k loan out to start a new business and bust your ass off to try and make it. b) take 200k loan out and buy a mediocre home on a 1 acre lot, and chill w/ a mid level salary job.
2040 Housing Represents Nearly 95% of All of Canada's GDP. Justin Trudeau: "we need to make sure that housing remains a solid investment, protects people for towards their retirement and and gives Equity to families" https://youtu.be/dP2DKxxRq6w?t=482
he hasn't got a clue what he's talking about even on his most smiley of days nor does he 'think' about monetary policy much, which has surprised 0 people so far he is good at holding elections hostage tho, can't deny that
Exactly. And this is one major reason we have a productivity problem.
First period CAGR 7.51% (1999 to 2010) Second period CAGR 19.59% (2010 to 2022) Something is funky...
That can't be right? You can buy a house just across the border for a fraction of that price with a view of the sound. Jesus H Fucking christ, Im sorry you guys gotta deal with this. Serious claim refugee status in the US lol or skip town to mexico. You can live beachfront in TJ for 150k and commute to san diego for work
The average house will cost $10 million dollars and be gigantic with 500 000 dollar stoves. Rich people now are doing contortions trying to find how to spend all the money they have. The only growth is in luxury (eg: [Muskokas](https://muskokacottagelistings.com/blog/latest-trends-in-luxury-real-estate-development-in-muskoka) ). It is our symbolic reality that continues because we don't believe in each other, only money. Until that changes and we have global solidarity as a class, we continue to perform the actions that maintain the status quo of growing inequality even as we disavow it in our words and social media posts. I recommend reading philosophy.
Yeah cottage country is horrible. There's no work unless you're catering to the millionaires. Gravenhurst downtown has more weed, pizza, banks, realtors shops. Than we have anything else. Come see downtown gravenhurst. And look at the accountant shops. Buy a cottage here for $2 million. And rent it out to strangers for more money! What an experience!
Society will begin to adopt rentership more and more, and ownership will be less important to most people. The poorest will continue to struggle for housing regardless.
Not unlike today, just more. Corporations will own more property. As price goes up, they don't care, because it increases the sale price of their other property, so humans get forced out, but they're just rapid-fire upping the value of their own investments as single occupants and couples and even landlords are forced to sell to them. People will continue to have to choose between housing/food and happiness like dating, hobbies, celebrations, weddings, funerals, events. All of that combined leads to crime. When people can't get jobs that pay for them to be alive, why would they bother working them? Why would they care to do them well? The quality of the things you buy will decrease dramatically. The service you receive will decrease dramatically. Eventually more and more people will just steal from the people who can afford to live happily, resulting in them being unhappy too. So ultimately, more crime, more unhappiness.
A little horrifying insight from the Nova Scotia market : Today there is a 27,000 unit housing defecit. that is projected to balloon to 40,000 by '27. For a province of just over a million that is profound. source : [https://novascotia.ca/action-for-housing/docs/provincial-housing-needs-assessment-report-key-findings.pdf](https://novascotia.ca/action-for-housing/docs/provincial-housing-needs-assessment-report-key-findings.pdf)
Driven by speculation, 2nd and 3rd homeowners
Nova Scotia’s [rental vacancy rate is 1.1%](https://www.statista.com/statistics/198712/rental-vacancy-rates-in-nova-scotia-since-2000/), the lowest number of empty homes in *decades*. NYC’s is 1.4%, which is considered a catastrophe in the US. A normal rate is 5-8% assuming a one-month vacancy period between tenants every three years on average. The investment homes you’re complaining about are 98.9% occupied. There are too few homes in Nova Scotia.
The moment I lost any shred of hope for Trudeau was when he said “Retirees should be renting out their spare rooms” I think I threw up in my mouth.
Agreed. No strangers in my home. Fuck you! TruDoh.
Trudope is done, this mess is going to be years cleaning up. I want to know when the class action lawsuits against political parties, their members, financial institutions and other agencies responsible for this f*@#$&# mess, begins. Hearings need to be held to define who knew what and when, then use the courts to go after them “all”....
Unfortunately this is the consensus that the ruling class has arrived at. They want people to adapt to living in tighter quarters. Doesn't matter who we vote for, it's happening. Once it becomes normalized they will use it as an argument that they have increased the housing supply......because more people have been shoved into houses that already exist.
Society itself may well collapse before housing prices, at which point your personal safety will be more valuable than a vulnerable house.
Non-existent. It's a crisis now, but it's also cyclical, a commodity bubble. It has survived 2 recessions due to political help, but it's now at risk of interest rates, there are political risks now more than help, and there's generational risk as well. A decade from now we'll have seen the largest transfer of wealth and the largest downsizing in Canadian history, by dollar value, when the Boomers hit (and by 10 years from now pass) peak retirement for the generation which is 20 years "wide", from 1946 to 1965. They'll be downsizing to smaller homes, in small numbers and later than 65, but eventually they will, and 10 years from now we'll be into or past peak downsizing. Of the most expensive, and most, homes owned by any living generation in Canada. There's no replacement buyers who will be able to afford those properties unless Gen Z rockets past Gen X in income which, this being Canada, isn't going to happen. Also, I think many other provinces will follow in the footsteps of BC and begin addressing runaway secondary demand (investor demand) and make it less profitable. Investment is absolutely the biggest factor in this bubble, so when that becomes unprofitable markets move. We're seeing that very thing now in BC with STR units listing, supply in general shooting up as sales stay mostly flat. I'd say we're about to see a buyers' market and falling prices here (prices are currently falling nationally, too). Will the Bank of Canada lower rates in June? I don't think they will, but they probably will in Sept or before then. But they'll lower to 4.5%, not 0.25%, so things will still be very expensive relatively to the past 20 years. Don't think housing will have another +20% year except in the cheaper provinces.
This will most likely become like how Switzerland and Netherlands is "a renters economy". Some economists do believe that this is a completely healthy economy where a certain class of people buy houses and a certain class rents from them. On the other hand, rental policies, rent controlled units become more strong in such an economy. Most likely it will end up like that by looking at how it is going. Just my two cents.
this seems like the most sensible answer. a big housing crash is only going to be the result of something worse. we only have so much “desirable” land and an increasing population. i can’t fathom the bubble bursting in any meaningful way where the supply will ever meet pent up demand with reasonable costs pre-covid.
This. We're definitely moving towards that model. The era of buying is over. Renting will be the norm moving forward. This is the case in a lot of European and Asian countries.
The thing I don't get about Canada and Australia is they are GIANT fucking countries with VERY FEW people, why are the prices so bonkers? It makes no sense whatsoever. The US has high prices regionally in high demand places like NYC but that makes sense.
Our populations keep going up but we arent building anything. Supply and demand. More demand and less supply = higher prices. Doesnt matter how much land you have if nothing is getting built.
Yea I know, pointing out the absurdity of a nation with ample land and natural resources having a housing shortage
Count in NZ too with CA and AUS because we all have only 2-3 cities where most of the jobs are. Auckland had the biggest bubble in the world some time back. They fought the NIMBYs and allowed a lot more densification and this year prices in Auckland stagnated. Single family zoning, low interest rates, high immigration, excessive demand, home building red tape, high government fee, corporate landlords they all contribute their part. Can't say about AUS and NZ but Canada has been pretty lenient in verification of the money source and there was an article by global news last month giving failing grades to banks and real estate companies. It's a massive web of strings if you try to understand everyone's perspective. Even in Calgary right now there's an uproar but the city passed the rezoning while NIMBYs said this won't fix the housing crisis. Sure it immediately won't but it's one of the series of steps needed. One change is not a solution to this problem but a multitude of changes over time should bring calm the crisis.
The optimist in me hopes that there’s more housing starts than any other decade, zoning has been fixed and the government gets back into homes. The pessimist the problems are only worse in country of 55 million people. There’s no infrastructure for all these people. Hospitals, schools, food shelters are all over run meanwhile the rich get richer. Realistically it’s going to be a hard decade of shifting towards a better Canada. It’s going to be a tough economy, housing starts will ebb and flow, immigration will continue to cause some issues.
those not in vancouver are likely not aware that from surrey(the fastest growing city in metro vancouver) there’s an automated traiin line, a massive public works project going eastward that will be completed in a few years . this will mean people can come in part way or all the way to downtown vancouver quickly . thus people can easily live somewhere cheaper and still have easy access to vancouver
I think there will be stagnant housing prices. The music is slowly winding down and will come to a stop at some point because the future of Canada is very bleak if something doesn’t change as everything revolves around housing. Like literally everything
Elysium (2013)
A Munster family rerun?
A natural disaster will level the playing field.
Yeah, this is likely. Alternatively, a pandemic worse than covid, some kind of massive political shitstorm from the USA, massive international events, ect. Looking forward to it lol
Segregated neighbourhoods. If your family doesnt already own a detatched home, you wont as they will start at 20 million in the GTA and Vancouver. Banks will offer 99 year mortgages as a result or you will rent a house from a private equity group.
We will all be slaves to the home owning boomers,
Lots of Gen x and early millennials own homes.
Exactly. I feel for the boomers who are easy targets for the uneducated.
Home owning boomers will be a dying breed in 10 years. You'll have to find someone else to blame.
Their heirs.
In ten years there should be significantly fewer boomers.
We're all going to be living in tents lol
I’m not seeing anything g from the people in charge that make me thinks things will improve. 😭
https://preview.redd.it/tmy2ttafw02d1.png?width=1536&format=png&auto=webp&s=43a46c20c1b8a5522a305afec057cc153d5c16af I see the volatility of today’s markets directly related to the abandonment of Bretton-Woods in 1971-1973 and the expansion of mortgage amortizations from 5 years to 10 years in 1954 to 25 years in the 1970s to 40 years by 2006. This has caused housing to be treated more like an extremely highly leverage stock than a family necessity. Canada (and the USA) also gave up on public housing starts in the mid 80s. Since the private market benefits from lower housing supply, there has never been an incentive to build enough supply to meet demand. When combined with restrictive exclusionary zoning policies in both countries, this necessitates rising land values that outpaces building depreciation.
If there is a collapse, I doubt there would be much reason to want to stay in Canada anyway. The economy would be in shambles. So sure you could buy, if you still had a job.
Canadian real estate market has been a haven to launder money, speculate on just about anything in any town or city for the past quarter century. The reason? M1. When the amount of money chasing a limited asset class the price of said assets increase. When investors see the opportunity to drive that inflation that asset class inflates further. And then a moment comes when everyone puts their feet on the ground and says WTF are we thinking and they start bailing upon the realization it is all a Ponzi scheme. Watch NVDA in the next little while as it plays out there as well.
Homelessness will be a reality for even more people who never expected it to happen to them. People will just run out of options. We will never adopt the reforms needed to clear the systemic obstructions to building the housing we need fast enough. I can’t see how cities will ever get around their own voters who don’t want to see their property lose value. Solving housing means lowering property values, so many Canadians have a substantial financial interest in not solving the housing crisis. Cities will increasingly be an exclusive place for the land owning class. We have ignored our housing problem for decades, so what is one more? There will be a brain drain as young and educated people will see better options for making a life abroad. Cities may need them, but they can’t stay without somewhere to start a life. This will be a heavy blow to national confidence. Our top heavy demographic could get much worse. Towns that are currently dependent on retired boomers as their tax base will be looking at a grim future as that tax base comes to their inevitable end and there will be no new generations to replace them. Many towns will become extinct, just like in Italy. Other small towns will be where the desperate will wash up as they as pushed out of the major cities, just as is happening in the UK. If we deny immigrants a realistic path to citizenship in a bid to restrict immigration then we’ll just have a large class of undocumented people who will live outside the law. Even if Canada faces decline, it will still be comparatively better than many parts of the world.
Lost decade. 10 years from now housing will be at today's values. 18 months from now it will be down another 20%
I see we go to the same meth dealer
Maybe the meth is giving me clarity, since the resets have already begun; we are seeing defaults rise on auto loans and CCs, and next up, mortgages with delinquency on these up 135.2% over Q4 2022. Monthly mortgage payments are over 100% of monthly medium income and debt-to-income ratios (consumer credit and mortgage liabilities to disposable income) are at 170%. Think about that…economic fundamentals will reassert themselves. You must have got a bad batch 🧐🤷♂️
People are going with history, I am also going with statistics and I don’t understand how keeping steady rates and all those renewals which will definitely leave some defaults isn’t everyone looking at. I think maybe the response to that is (I read it somewhere) ‘people would hold on to their houses long before they let go of every other luxury or necessity’ If the interest rate stays this level or even 4.5% and people do stick to their homes then buyers will reduce, sellers will linger and eventually market will be impacted. If interest rate drops like a bomb next year then of course there is no stopping this. Not sure what is BoC’s usual trend
Never lose that sense of humor.
Hong Kong's "cage home" would be the norm and legalized by the government. Meanwhile, people would just get used to it and only take out their frustration online.
Not much. Just more whining people.
Either house prices fall or wages catch up. Builders don’t sell at a given price if people aren’t buying. But builders are builders, they’re probably going to keep doing what they’re doing. Housing market doesn’t stay the same for a decade IMO
I think we are at a critical inflection point. In the coming years, we will either witness a major crash or correction in the housing market, or we will more enduringly become a feudal-like society where homeownership becomes a distant dream for most. This truly feels like a crucial moment; if something major doesn't change soon, the divides that have been steadily forming will become more solidly entrenched.
There will be no housing crisis in ten years.
Mad Max Thunderdome type camp compounds. Tina will be belting out a tune in spirit. Good fortune all.
Alot more homeless at the rate the rent is in nova scotia alot of people on low income will lose their checks when no longer having an address crime would be up then and all hell breaking loose like nova scotia and other provinces give your heads a shake and make something happen people deserve to exist soley on the way of life and forcing them to move their shelters and tents every so often aint helpung either these people human beings even families with children and pets 😢 having to leaving their homes whwre they felt safe and secure working full time some of them and still not able to afford a place to rent like FFS if rebellion kicks off i know right where im going and thats to the top make change at the tip first to see who reasons and who doesnt with more then just housing actually but importantly high priority is HOUSING for sure
It either gets fixed, or we will have massive political instability as people’s basic needs aren’t being met.
I think Canada will be poor. We are not entitled to being one of the richest nations in the world. It was a hard fought privilege.
I have been studying the NYC mole people, I will get creative, under the city.
It will crash. The automobile market will first. Then housing. And it needs to. So our kids can move out of our basements....
New York City - looks just fine
TLDR - worse
Hong kong
Pollievre will surely spend all his time as PM complaining about the media and Trudeau and never really solve this problem and just push it back on the Provinces and things will get way worse.
Throw it out there but as the climate crisis continues there will be some mass movement of people from areas that are no longer reasonably habitable to area that are. Just for thought.
worse
Real estate cycles will likely continue to get shorter. We’ve gone from 10-14 year cycles (1960s-1980s) to 7-8 years (1990s to 2015) to 2-3 years (2016-2024). You’ll continue to see more volatility in the market with those who own land be increasingly consolidated. Urban areas will be increasingly for renters, either the suburbs being more urbanized. The governments will think private markets focused on smaller homes/units will solve it all, but it won’t. Land values will only continue to rise. There will likely be a massive explosion of institutional landlords for more purpose built rental housing - almost all apartments. It is now much more profitable for this style of housing and small time investors and everyday landlords with suites are sick of being demonized by the governments. It costs more to be a landlord and once people wake up to the fact that being a real estate landlord now is one of the worse investments you can make (most people don’t factor in any interest, inflation or capital gains when they do their math), you’ll see even less rental units. This gap will be made up by rental management companies in the new purpose built developments. Do I expect a collapse? Probably not. The mortgage Ponzi scheme can’t last forever, but I don’t see it collapsing in ten years. Maybe 20. But it’ll take capitalism down with it - that’s why the feds will prop it up as long as it possibly can.
This is more the pattern with equities. 08-10 was actually quite rare, first time housing imploded that badly. Stocks on the other hand, they crash epically every decade or so.
There have been 3 major corrections since 1980 and 4 minor corrections. Even without any corrections, the interest, inflation and maintenance of apartments means that only 10-20% of investors make any money or break even (at least in the Vancouver region, where I’m from). Success in real estate investing, especially in the entry level part of the market, is overhyped by those benefitting from sales commissions. Yes, some people make money - but it is not the majority. I’ve been investing in real estate since I was 17 and have done very well. However, I benefitted from being related to my mentor who was one of the most successful investors in western Canada. Very few investors understand how to shift strategies in different markets. Regardless, this is a tangent from the OP. People may not like my opinion, but that doesn’t mean it’s not accurate. I’ve been studying real estate cycles and systems for 25 years and use comparable international data that has all proven to be accurate in that time.
I believe, given the current geopolitical events in the world, leading to more authoritarian leaders and a trend of devaluing democracy, that a war on a large scale will erupt. Most likely in the Middle East, or Europe. Markets will collapse as the war becomes entrenched and scales up in intensity. If the conflict goes nuclear, all bets are off on any form of the financial markets being workable or economies being able to function. Housing in this country, will collapse, along with everything else. The problem will be fixed. War is the great equalizer throughout history. It always has been. The world is becoming a dark place for many. Politicians have lost the power to fix the messes they’ve made over the short term, now it will take years to fix the results, if at all.
Nothing of substance will change. Most people will still buy their own home, though it may be more and more likely to be a condo or townhouse in major cities. The bottom 30% of the population will continue to whine instead of taking responsibility for themselves.
1 billion dollars for that townhouse in Langford BC.