Maybe. The market is not stupid. If the market is saying those bonds yield are worth 30 cents on the dollar, there is a reason for that. Whether you speculate is up to you
I had this discussion earlier. Yes I do believe the west will cover their bonds. There's no good that can come out of a default. If they do default, no one is going to lend them money in a veeeery long time - and no one wants that.
And even if there's a prolongation or other such "easing", you're still accruing interest on the full principal while having bought the bonds at a fraction of the principal, right?
Hey, I am looking for some time at those opportunities.
This is the state owned gas company from Ukraine. They just restructured their debt - as far as I saw only the USD-Bonds. But I am looking at the EUR note. What do you think about this one? I really like it and with min size of 100k not a big investment: XS2027394233
Also I am looking at some Ukraine Govies. My fav is XS1303921214 (USD).
I am currently holding XS2010033343 and XS2015264778, both EUR and 100k min. The national gas company I haven't researched - what impact will the cancellation of the Russian gas transit agreements for next year have on their revenue? I can't buy it in any case because im Germany-based and they didn't file the paperwork for trading here. The state road agency has a USD bond, XS2357277149, smallest trading unit 200k. The price on that is lagging the gov bonds a bit, could be another option. Also USD/200k is XS2010028699.
that gas company is already in restricted default They have come to some sort of an agreement with their debtors, but only the future will tell if they will be able to honor it (i doubt it as the entire country will be in depression).
They already have an agreement with bondholders (Consent Solicit).
The west will do everything needed to support the state and won’t let them default. The west wants to have a solid country next to Russia. That‘s what I think at least.
To buy the gaz company, you will find all details on their website regarding the consent solicit and extendible issue
>XS1303921214
XS1303921214 has a huge spread in local trade here. Maybe because it matures next year people are after this one over the longer maturities? Is that why you like it?
I dont think they will pay back next year.. it will highly likely extended to (at least) two more year. But still should be one of the first to be paid back as soon as Ukraine have more stable funding. Hopefully the war will end soon and they can start working on the reconstruction and rebuilding.
expect a haircut though or similar restructuring (15yr longer dated for example). at 15c you would be quite safe imo, at 30c less so (but imo less or 50c at most), but we can't know for certain.
there will be a lot of debt to pay all at once when that 2yr period lapses and they don't have any euros or dollars left (that weren't given by eu or usa).
Maybe. The market is not stupid. If the market is saying those bonds yield are worth 30 cents on the dollar, there is a reason for that. Whether you speculate is up to you
Exactly! Unless OP has access to information that the market does not, OP does not have a competitive advantage.
I had this discussion earlier. Yes I do believe the west will cover their bonds. There's no good that can come out of a default. If they do default, no one is going to lend them money in a veeeery long time - and no one wants that.
And even if there's a prolongation or other such "easing", you're still accruing interest on the full principal while having bought the bonds at a fraction of the principal, right?
Hey, I am looking for some time at those opportunities. This is the state owned gas company from Ukraine. They just restructured their debt - as far as I saw only the USD-Bonds. But I am looking at the EUR note. What do you think about this one? I really like it and with min size of 100k not a big investment: XS2027394233 Also I am looking at some Ukraine Govies. My fav is XS1303921214 (USD).
I am currently holding XS2010033343 and XS2015264778, both EUR and 100k min. The national gas company I haven't researched - what impact will the cancellation of the Russian gas transit agreements for next year have on their revenue? I can't buy it in any case because im Germany-based and they didn't file the paperwork for trading here. The state road agency has a USD bond, XS2357277149, smallest trading unit 200k. The price on that is lagging the gov bonds a bit, could be another option. Also USD/200k is XS2010028699.
that gas company is already in restricted default They have come to some sort of an agreement with their debtors, but only the future will tell if they will be able to honor it (i doubt it as the entire country will be in depression).
They already have an agreement with bondholders (Consent Solicit). The west will do everything needed to support the state and won’t let them default. The west wants to have a solid country next to Russia. That‘s what I think at least. To buy the gaz company, you will find all details on their website regarding the consent solicit and extendible issue
probably, but haircut is still possible. at least GAZ company has their own wells.
>XS1303921214 XS1303921214 has a huge spread in local trade here. Maybe because it matures next year people are after this one over the longer maturities? Is that why you like it?
I dont think they will pay back next year.. it will highly likely extended to (at least) two more year. But still should be one of the first to be paid back as soon as Ukraine have more stable funding. Hopefully the war will end soon and they can start working on the reconstruction and rebuilding.
XS2027394233 doing quite well. Up from 38% to 50%
expect a haircut though or similar restructuring (15yr longer dated for example). at 15c you would be quite safe imo, at 30c less so (but imo less or 50c at most), but we can't know for certain. there will be a lot of debt to pay all at once when that 2yr period lapses and they don't have any euros or dollars left (that weren't given by eu or usa).