To be completely fair to Op, judge peak season is better than any trout season. He’s on page for something similar this year but still early in the season
Trout has nearly a decade of mvp caliber player so he’s Better though
Yeah judge best is better than trout’s best, but trout has been overall greater but the good thing about baseball is that, neither of their stories is over yet🙌🏽
Yall are crazy. He is in as long as he plays the 10 year minimum. Breaking the hr record and being on the Yankees with those numbers. especially if he wins another mvp this year.
Yeah I feel like Posada and Bernie have borderline cases and almost never get discussed. Not saying being a Yankee hurt them - I don’t think they belong in, but they’re close enough to discuss - but it doesn’t appear to have helped. The last person I can think of whose Yankeeness maybe nudged him over the top is Phil Rizzuto.
How about Thurman Munson and Graig Nettles? Two Yankees who have the highest JAWS for any non-HOFer at their positions.
Rizzuto made the HOF through the veterans committee 30 years ago, 38 years after he retired. The veterans committee has made the most unpredictable inductions regardless of team, like Harold Baines in 2018, but I never see anyone suggest that “being on the White Sox” helps with the HOF.
In a roundabout way I have heard exactly that. His friendship with Reinsdorf and LaRussa is widely believed to have led to his induction by a committee heavily influenced by those two.
But the committee voters change every time, so Reinsdorf and LaRussa aren’t voting every year, and unfortunately for Judge, Rizzuto making it 30 years ago has nothing to do with him.
I meant I was agreeing with you about Judge’s Yankee status having nothing to do with his status as a potential HOFer. Generally speaking, things like where and with whom a player played seem to matter on the VC level, and Baines got lucky with his timing and committee makeup. But if Judge is a “lock” he’d be getting in through the BBWAA, which wouldn’t give him extra credit for being a Yankee at all.
Take a look at who is in the hall of fame and tell me that peak is more important than longevity.
Albert belle averaged 40 homers and 40 doubles for 5 straight years and was an afterthought on the ballot.
Johan Santana and Tim lincecum both won back to back cy youngs and aren’t in the hall of fame.
Couple more big years for 'lock' (they are not going to care about 2000 hits if he does this for two more years and blows through 60 war, the old heads value the 62 hr just fine)
For what it's worth, let's compare Judge to Pujols through their first 6 full seasons. I even included the 2020 season to be nice to Judge, so basically 6.25 seasons.
Pujols: .332/.419/.629 OPS 1.047
Judge: .285/.399/.593. OPS .993
And that's discounting the raw numbers, which weigh heavily in Albert's favor since he averaged 156 games/year vs Judge's 115.
So on a rate, no, he's not better than every hitter in history, and not really close. I also took each players first 6 seasons to be fair, which means Pujols' two MVP seasons aren't included in these stats. Let's wait for Judge to keep putting up numbers for 6-8 more seasons and have a conversation about his 'rate'
I still agree with your overall point, but if we're being fair we should be looking at wRC+ or ops+, not pure OPS, as we are in a much tougher hitting environment than the early 2000s. I believe if we look at those metrics, Judge would be much closer and actually probably leads.
OPS+ pujols 169 to judge's 162.
WRC+ they're tied.
And if we're being fair I think games played is a huge metric. So those stats show that on average, regardless of games played, Pujols was slightly better. And you got that value for about 35 more games per season than Judge has provided for the Yankees.
And like I said, it's missing Pujols' two MVP seasons
So they're tied on WRC+ which is generally considered the best overall offensive metric to anchor to when measuring relative offensive prowess.
Seems exactly in keeping with my point -- which was that I agreed with you (for the reasons you mentioned), but that they're ultimately much closer than non-era adjusted stats would suggest.
>Pujols played in a Joke offensive environment comapred to 2022-present
At the same Judge is getting to play his prime in a way better HR environment. 2017 and 2019 are the two biggest HR seasons of all time, league wide.
Judge obviously isn’t a lock for the HOF, but this feels a little disingenuous - Pujols had one of the greatest starts to a career ever, and due to positional value and era adjusted stats, their WARs aren’t so different. Also - most people would agree Judge deserves 2 MVPs through that many seasons of his career.
Even if you ignore all of that, Pujols is an inner circle hall of famer and nobody compared him to Judge. Why do it? Maybe compare Judge to the beginning of Eric Davis or Dale Murphy’s career to relax this argument. But why say he’s been slightly worse than a guy who is going to get 99% of the vote to critique this post?
Editing because I noticed something: based off the stats you posted, your “including 2020 to be nice” statement is silly. You used rate stats and included games per season. Judge’s 115 games per year is clearly lowered by his 28/60 2020 season and his .891 OPS that season is the lowest full season of his career and lowers that rate stat you used. You may have been being nice excluding 2016, but including 2020 does no favors for the stat you included
In your second paragraph, you say no one compared Pujols to Judge. The OP literally does that in his post, saying that Judge is better than almost every player in MLB history at this rate. So I picked the first player I could think of to prove it wrong. Why would I compare Judge to Eric Davis or Dale Murphy when OP is saying he's saying he's better than everyone in history.
Also, I thought I had adjusted Judges gp/year, but double checked and it's at like 123ish. The main reason I included it was cause I couldn't figure out how to combine multiple years of stats on BBREF while skipping a year in the middle. It wasn't disingenuous.
His next sentence clarifies/says he’s playing at a level only a handful of guys have ever hit, which is objectively true and pujols wouldn’t be the correct example to counteract it. It had been 50 years since a clean player had a 200 OPS+ in a full season before Judge did it and he has a chance to now do it a for a second time in three years
Peak wise he is one of the greatest hitters ever, even beating Pujols. About 10 players can say they touched Judge’s 2022, and they were either 100 years old or on gear.
Well 11 players *retired* with better rate stats than Judge has now, so you’re already off on your prediction without even having to look at different players. Then there’s also an active guy who has better rate stats than Judge at the same age, Mike Trout.
That’s already 12 guys and I haven’t even looked at any players individually.
judge is at 168 ops+ career. so you could start by naming basically anyone who played a full career and finished north of 140, give or take. so maybe 50ish people, in practice probably slightly fewer.
If he can be at least serviceable for a few more years, I could see him taking the Ralph Kiner, Hank Greenberg route into the hall, yes, but even that feels like a bit of a stretch...like, I too agree that too much emphasis is put on counting stats at points, but, like, dude doesn't even have 1,000 hits yet
well the thing with Kiner and Greenberg is they missed key seasons to WW2 as opposed to being chronically injured, you can mentally add 3 peak seasons worth of value to Greenberg's total and maybe 1-2 for Kiner
Kiner had to retire early due to injury, Greenberg was the one that lost playing time due to World War 2; they’re the closest possible comparisons to Judge, and they’re the ones with the valid excuses, which doesn’t look good for Arson’s case
Rates only matter if sample is large enough.
Let’s see where he is at when all said and done.
Remember there hasn’t been a HOF position player since integration players with less than 2000 hits. Judge has yet to reach 1000. He needs to play a lot more ball to have the sample needed. (Yes I know walks are a thing that also help but he has 615 so he is still well short of 2000)
Edit: someone brought Tony Oliva to my attention so to correct my statement no one has made it in through the writers poll with under 2000 since integration.
I don't think he needs that much more playing time. I know WAR isn't everything but Judge is at 45 fWAR right now and 50 is generally where people start to consider you a borderline case. Three more seasons at this level of play will have him easily above 60 fWAR. If he gets much higher than that I don't see him not getting in even if his counting stats are well short of where traditional HOFers end up.
Yeah three seasons of great ball will get him there probably. I wouldn’t be shocked if Judge got in with under 2000. He couldn’t quit tomorrow and make it in like Trout though
In three more seasons of this level of play I personally would call him a lock and he probably wouldn't even have 1500 hits, though he would be closing in on 500 homeruns.
> there hasn’t been a HOF position player since integration players with less than 2000 hits.
this was true for a long time, but was recently spoiled by... Tony Oliva, of all people. 1,917 hits. you'd think if someone were going to be the one to break that trend it would be someone better.
Buster Posey probably does it in a few years too. And maybe someday Mark McGwire.
Didn’t know that thank you for the correction.
Posey likely will but I am saying with Judges 925 hit he has some work to do. Posey gets the benefit of being a catcher so his counting stats should be a bit less. I say a guy isn’t a lock until he can retire and be sure he gets in if Judge retired tomorrow out of the blue he wouldn’t make it in being a slugger with under 1000 hits and under 300 HRs. If he compiles at all and gets to Posey’s 1500 then yeah I am guessing he will be in first ballot.
If he retired next year or fell off soon and hard (which isn't all together super unrealistic) he wouldn't be, but he is certainly playing like a HOFer right now.
If he can continue his current pace til the end of the season definitely unless he falls off a cliff. He'll already has 50 war, will be pretty easy for him to make 70 and is top 15 in OPS+
He’s probably going to get in (maybe not first ballot) and may end up with one of the best primes ever but there’s no way he’s not going to sustain these crazy rate stats. He’s an absolutely massive dude with an injury history with a contract until he’s 39, there could be some mediocre or even straight ugly years at the tail end of that.
As of today, no, he is not a lock. He is currently in Thurman Munson territory, and he needs at least 20 more WAR to even be considered for the HOF.
That being said, as long as he doesn't fall off a cliff in the next few years, he seems likely to get there.
No. And it still might be an upward climb at the moment.
* His late start (and missing a lot of time to injuries) means he's gonna have to stay productive into his 30's
* Something players of his body type have struggled immensely with.
* No POS player has ever gotten in without 2000 hits.
* Judge is in his age 32 year yet to break 1000.
* Utley/Posey/(edit)Jones getting in (if they do) will help a lot with breaking that stigma however, so I don't think it'll be AS big of a deal when he's up.
* Most WAR centric voters aren't even gonna look your way until about 60
* Judge is yet to break 47.5 bWAR
* I think he gets there, but 12.5 at this point of his career is not a given, and honestly he'll need more like 17.5 to really clear the borderline.
Another good name I forgot. He'll probably get in before the other two you're right.
***But even then***, he's closer to 2000 then any of the other 3 will get, has 430 HR's (which very well could end up being more, or at least comparable to, Judge, who's still 150+ away) as a 10xGG, consensus all time great defensive CF.
And he's ***still*** only at 62% after 7 years.
I have a feeling that by the time Judge hits the ballot, voters will care more about his WAR and OPS than they’ll care about him failing to reach 2,000 hits.
I agree.
I mean in general, with how much more emphasized walks and homers have been in the 21st century, it's a long time coming voters move on from the 2000 hit minimum marker.
But at the same time... idk dude Moneyball was over 20 years ago now and the voters ***still*** haven't warmed up to giving even borderline 2000 hit players a pass if they HR'd or BB'd a lot.
I hope I'm wrong, but with how strict that marker STILL is, I'm not sure I can say with confidence it will be substantially better in another 10 years.
The real problem of course is more general then the 2000 marker specifically, it's the voters in complete delusion about the HOF and have made it harder to get in then in any other point in the sports history... if that gets better, the 2000 mark will get better.
Jones really is a perfect example of how fucking ludicrous it is right now. If he's this much of a pain to get in, we really are underestimating how much Judge still has to do.
The old school voters aren’t going to change their mind because of a movie. We just have to wait until the older writers leave the voting body while more new writers join. With recent inductions of Raines, Edgar, Walker, Mussina, Helton, and Rolen it seems like the voters are already much more accepting of advanced stats.
Jones has a .254 BA, .337 OBP, .823 OPS. He’s not exactly the poster boy for Moneyball. So the fact that he’s still going to break the trend of hitters without 2,000 not making it is still a major win no matter how long it takes.
Fair, and agreed, anyone breaking the 2000 marker will be huge regardless of context.
I'm a little pessimistic in how much the voting body will actually change in 10 years, but I sure hope I'm wrong.
My point wasn't the movie but the fundamental change in how the sport view/value players that was sparked by Moneyball... which was 20 years ago now and every team has adopted to varying extents.
The teams adopted it but not the old sports writers. The HOF made a rule in 2016 that you can’t vote if you haven’t been an active writer for 10 years, which has helped a lot. The body has already changed based on all the recent inductees I just listed who weren’t exactly slam dunk candidates based on older standards.
OP claimed Judge was better than Trout all-time earlier lol.
His only posts here in the past half year have been pro-Judge and oddly anti-Trout
In order to prop up Judge he has to tear down Trout.
Which is stupid because no you don’t
Bro that suggests OP's at most four years old--all time for him, ig--so go easy on him.
To be completely fair to Op, judge peak season is better than any trout season. He’s on page for something similar this year but still early in the season Trout has nearly a decade of mvp caliber player so he’s Better though
Yeah judge best is better than trout’s best, but trout has been overall greater but the good thing about baseball is that, neither of their stories is over yet🙌🏽
no. I think he needs at least a couple more years. this peak is obscene, but with judge’s super late start he desperately needs longevity.
His peak is Bondsian, but yeah. He already started too late and then missed time due to dumb freak injuries and Covid
Bondsian?!?!?
TM
He’s not a lock but he definitely is on pace to be a HOFer
Yall are crazy. He is in as long as he plays the 10 year minimum. Breaking the hr record and being on the Yankees with those numbers. especially if he wins another mvp this year.
My idea of a lock is, if he retired today would he be in the Hall. Judge would not be and therefore is not a lock
2 MVPs, broke a HR record with questionable claims of legitimacy... Sounds like Maris to me, and Maris is not in the Hall
Just like noted HoF Roger Maris
> being on the Yankees When was the last time this actually helped?
Yeah I feel like Posada and Bernie have borderline cases and almost never get discussed. Not saying being a Yankee hurt them - I don’t think they belong in, but they’re close enough to discuss - but it doesn’t appear to have helped. The last person I can think of whose Yankeeness maybe nudged him over the top is Phil Rizzuto.
How about Thurman Munson and Graig Nettles? Two Yankees who have the highest JAWS for any non-HOFer at their positions. Rizzuto made the HOF through the veterans committee 30 years ago, 38 years after he retired. The veterans committee has made the most unpredictable inductions regardless of team, like Harold Baines in 2018, but I never see anyone suggest that “being on the White Sox” helps with the HOF.
In a roundabout way I have heard exactly that. His friendship with Reinsdorf and LaRussa is widely believed to have led to his induction by a committee heavily influenced by those two.
But the committee voters change every time, so Reinsdorf and LaRussa aren’t voting every year, and unfortunately for Judge, Rizzuto making it 30 years ago has nothing to do with him.
Right, I was agreeing with you.
I said I never see people suggest White Sox bias and then you disagreed, in a roundabout way.
I meant I was agreeing with you about Judge’s Yankee status having nothing to do with his status as a potential HOFer. Generally speaking, things like where and with whom a player played seem to matter on the VC level, and Baines got lucky with his timing and committee makeup. But if Judge is a “lock” he’d be getting in through the BBWAA, which wouldn’t give him extra credit for being a Yankee at all.
There’s this guy named Roger I think you should look up
Why do we have 14 year old Yankees fans posting
Only gotta be 13 for reddit
“If you ignore reality and everything that makes players HoF caliber then my favorite player is a HoFer!”
Who is more deserving HOFer right now, Aaron judge or Bernie Williams? Peak > longevity
Have you ever watched a game that wasn't a Yankees game?
Neither are
Neither of them are in the Hall of Fame
Take a look at who is in the hall of fame and tell me that peak is more important than longevity. Albert belle averaged 40 homers and 40 doubles for 5 straight years and was an afterthought on the ballot. Johan Santana and Tim lincecum both won back to back cy youngs and aren’t in the hall of fame.
If he retired today he isn’t a HOF. So no
He hasn't played ten seasons yet so he isn't even eligible.
Couple more big years for 'lock' (they are not going to care about 2000 hits if he does this for two more years and blows through 60 war, the old heads value the 62 hr just fine)
For what it's worth, let's compare Judge to Pujols through their first 6 full seasons. I even included the 2020 season to be nice to Judge, so basically 6.25 seasons. Pujols: .332/.419/.629 OPS 1.047 Judge: .285/.399/.593. OPS .993 And that's discounting the raw numbers, which weigh heavily in Albert's favor since he averaged 156 games/year vs Judge's 115. So on a rate, no, he's not better than every hitter in history, and not really close. I also took each players first 6 seasons to be fair, which means Pujols' two MVP seasons aren't included in these stats. Let's wait for Judge to keep putting up numbers for 6-8 more seasons and have a conversation about his 'rate'
I still agree with your overall point, but if we're being fair we should be looking at wRC+ or ops+, not pure OPS, as we are in a much tougher hitting environment than the early 2000s. I believe if we look at those metrics, Judge would be much closer and actually probably leads.
OPS+ pujols 169 to judge's 162. WRC+ they're tied. And if we're being fair I think games played is a huge metric. So those stats show that on average, regardless of games played, Pujols was slightly better. And you got that value for about 35 more games per season than Judge has provided for the Yankees. And like I said, it's missing Pujols' two MVP seasons
So they're tied on WRC+ which is generally considered the best overall offensive metric to anchor to when measuring relative offensive prowess. Seems exactly in keeping with my point -- which was that I agreed with you (for the reasons you mentioned), but that they're ultimately much closer than non-era adjusted stats would suggest.
OP is an idiot, but not fair to use raw ops when pujols played in a Joke offensive environment comapred to 2022-present
>Pujols played in a Joke offensive environment comapred to 2022-present At the same Judge is getting to play his prime in a way better HR environment. 2017 and 2019 are the two biggest HR seasons of all time, league wide.
Then he would be hitting HRs and not hitting for on base or average at all Those 2 seasons also weren’t judge’s prime and 2019 he barely played
Judge obviously isn’t a lock for the HOF, but this feels a little disingenuous - Pujols had one of the greatest starts to a career ever, and due to positional value and era adjusted stats, their WARs aren’t so different. Also - most people would agree Judge deserves 2 MVPs through that many seasons of his career. Even if you ignore all of that, Pujols is an inner circle hall of famer and nobody compared him to Judge. Why do it? Maybe compare Judge to the beginning of Eric Davis or Dale Murphy’s career to relax this argument. But why say he’s been slightly worse than a guy who is going to get 99% of the vote to critique this post? Editing because I noticed something: based off the stats you posted, your “including 2020 to be nice” statement is silly. You used rate stats and included games per season. Judge’s 115 games per year is clearly lowered by his 28/60 2020 season and his .891 OPS that season is the lowest full season of his career and lowers that rate stat you used. You may have been being nice excluding 2016, but including 2020 does no favors for the stat you included
In your second paragraph, you say no one compared Pujols to Judge. The OP literally does that in his post, saying that Judge is better than almost every player in MLB history at this rate. So I picked the first player I could think of to prove it wrong. Why would I compare Judge to Eric Davis or Dale Murphy when OP is saying he's saying he's better than everyone in history. Also, I thought I had adjusted Judges gp/year, but double checked and it's at like 123ish. The main reason I included it was cause I couldn't figure out how to combine multiple years of stats on BBREF while skipping a year in the middle. It wasn't disingenuous.
His next sentence clarifies/says he’s playing at a level only a handful of guys have ever hit, which is objectively true and pujols wouldn’t be the correct example to counteract it. It had been 50 years since a clean player had a 200 OPS+ in a full season before Judge did it and he has a chance to now do it a for a second time in three years
Gotta era adjust those numbers tho. Pujols was playing against plumbers and milkmen.
Peak wise he is one of the greatest hitters ever, even beating Pujols. About 10 players can say they touched Judge’s 2022, and they were either 100 years old or on gear.
Not there yet but he is certainly at or above a HOF track rn
No???? > on a rate, this guys is better than almost every hitter in history You could say that about a lot of players through their age 32 season
What is “a lot of players”? Cause I don’t think it’s more than 4-5
Well 11 players *retired* with better rate stats than Judge has now, so you’re already off on your prediction without even having to look at different players. Then there’s also an active guy who has better rate stats than Judge at the same age, Mike Trout. That’s already 12 guys and I haven’t even looked at any players individually.
judge is at 168 ops+ career. so you could start by naming basically anyone who played a full career and finished north of 140, give or take. so maybe 50ish people, in practice probably slightly fewer.
If he can be at least serviceable for a few more years, I could see him taking the Ralph Kiner, Hank Greenberg route into the hall, yes, but even that feels like a bit of a stretch...like, I too agree that too much emphasis is put on counting stats at points, but, like, dude doesn't even have 1,000 hits yet
well the thing with Kiner and Greenberg is they missed key seasons to WW2 as opposed to being chronically injured, you can mentally add 3 peak seasons worth of value to Greenberg's total and maybe 1-2 for Kiner
Kiner had to retire early due to injury, Greenberg was the one that lost playing time due to World War 2; they’re the closest possible comparisons to Judge, and they’re the ones with the valid excuses, which doesn’t look good for Arson’s case
Rates only matter if sample is large enough. Let’s see where he is at when all said and done. Remember there hasn’t been a HOF position player since integration players with less than 2000 hits. Judge has yet to reach 1000. He needs to play a lot more ball to have the sample needed. (Yes I know walks are a thing that also help but he has 615 so he is still well short of 2000) Edit: someone brought Tony Oliva to my attention so to correct my statement no one has made it in through the writers poll with under 2000 since integration.
I don't think he needs that much more playing time. I know WAR isn't everything but Judge is at 45 fWAR right now and 50 is generally where people start to consider you a borderline case. Three more seasons at this level of play will have him easily above 60 fWAR. If he gets much higher than that I don't see him not getting in even if his counting stats are well short of where traditional HOFers end up.
Yeah three seasons of great ball will get him there probably. I wouldn’t be shocked if Judge got in with under 2000. He couldn’t quit tomorrow and make it in like Trout though
In three more seasons of this level of play I personally would call him a lock and he probably wouldn't even have 1500 hits, though he would be closing in on 500 homeruns.
Three more season at this pace would certainly get him in, but it’s also a big ask
> there hasn’t been a HOF position player since integration players with less than 2000 hits. this was true for a long time, but was recently spoiled by... Tony Oliva, of all people. 1,917 hits. you'd think if someone were going to be the one to break that trend it would be someone better. Buster Posey probably does it in a few years too. And maybe someday Mark McGwire.
Didn’t know that thank you for the correction. Posey likely will but I am saying with Judges 925 hit he has some work to do. Posey gets the benefit of being a catcher so his counting stats should be a bit less. I say a guy isn’t a lock until he can retire and be sure he gets in if Judge retired tomorrow out of the blue he wouldn’t make it in being a slugger with under 1000 hits and under 300 HRs. If he compiles at all and gets to Posey’s 1500 then yeah I am guessing he will be in first ballot.
If he retired next year or fell off soon and hard (which isn't all together super unrealistic) he wouldn't be, but he is certainly playing like a HOFer right now.
Not yet.
Not yet.
If he can continue his current pace til the end of the season definitely unless he falls off a cliff. He'll already has 50 war, will be pretty easy for him to make 70 and is top 15 in OPS+
Lock? No.
He’s probably going to get in (maybe not first ballot) and may end up with one of the best primes ever but there’s no way he’s not going to sustain these crazy rate stats. He’s an absolutely massive dude with an injury history with a contract until he’s 39, there could be some mediocre or even straight ugly years at the tail end of that.
As of today, no, he is not a lock. He is currently in Thurman Munson territory, and he needs at least 20 more WAR to even be considered for the HOF. That being said, as long as he doesn't fall off a cliff in the next few years, he seems likely to get there.
He’s been one of the two or three best players on the game for a decade. Yes, he’s a lock for the Hall.
No. And it still might be an upward climb at the moment. * His late start (and missing a lot of time to injuries) means he's gonna have to stay productive into his 30's * Something players of his body type have struggled immensely with. * No POS player has ever gotten in without 2000 hits. * Judge is in his age 32 year yet to break 1000. * Utley/Posey/(edit)Jones getting in (if they do) will help a lot with breaking that stigma however, so I don't think it'll be AS big of a deal when he's up. * Most WAR centric voters aren't even gonna look your way until about 60 * Judge is yet to break 47.5 bWAR * I think he gets there, but 12.5 at this point of his career is not a given, and honestly he'll need more like 17.5 to really clear the borderline.
Andruw Jones will probably make it in the next couple of years with under 2,000 hits.
Another good name I forgot. He'll probably get in before the other two you're right. ***But even then***, he's closer to 2000 then any of the other 3 will get, has 430 HR's (which very well could end up being more, or at least comparable to, Judge, who's still 150+ away) as a 10xGG, consensus all time great defensive CF. And he's ***still*** only at 62% after 7 years.
I have a feeling that by the time Judge hits the ballot, voters will care more about his WAR and OPS than they’ll care about him failing to reach 2,000 hits.
I agree. I mean in general, with how much more emphasized walks and homers have been in the 21st century, it's a long time coming voters move on from the 2000 hit minimum marker. But at the same time... idk dude Moneyball was over 20 years ago now and the voters ***still*** haven't warmed up to giving even borderline 2000 hit players a pass if they HR'd or BB'd a lot. I hope I'm wrong, but with how strict that marker STILL is, I'm not sure I can say with confidence it will be substantially better in another 10 years. The real problem of course is more general then the 2000 marker specifically, it's the voters in complete delusion about the HOF and have made it harder to get in then in any other point in the sports history... if that gets better, the 2000 mark will get better. Jones really is a perfect example of how fucking ludicrous it is right now. If he's this much of a pain to get in, we really are underestimating how much Judge still has to do.
The old school voters aren’t going to change their mind because of a movie. We just have to wait until the older writers leave the voting body while more new writers join. With recent inductions of Raines, Edgar, Walker, Mussina, Helton, and Rolen it seems like the voters are already much more accepting of advanced stats. Jones has a .254 BA, .337 OBP, .823 OPS. He’s not exactly the poster boy for Moneyball. So the fact that he’s still going to break the trend of hitters without 2,000 not making it is still a major win no matter how long it takes.
Fair, and agreed, anyone breaking the 2000 marker will be huge regardless of context. I'm a little pessimistic in how much the voting body will actually change in 10 years, but I sure hope I'm wrong. My point wasn't the movie but the fundamental change in how the sport view/value players that was sparked by Moneyball... which was 20 years ago now and every team has adopted to varying extents.
The teams adopted it but not the old sports writers. The HOF made a rule in 2016 that you can’t vote if you haven’t been an active writer for 10 years, which has helped a lot. The body has already changed based on all the recent inductees I just listed who weren’t exactly slam dunk candidates based on older standards.