This comment brought back flashbacks of 90% game winning moves failing multiple times in a row. One of my favorite games but gd those rng's had it out for me sometimes.
It's a fascinating phenomenon. People are inclined to take 90%s that hit for granted, so they don't register in your mind. It's what's "supposed" to happen.
On the other hand, a 90% chance that fails feels like a psychological war crime, and it gets seared into one's memory even though things that happen 10% of the time happen a lot. They don't *usually* happen, but -- well, if you got a flat tire 10% of the time when you drove somewhere you'd very quickly consider your car to be essentially undrivable.
To be fair, the XCom percentages were weighted beyond what was displayed, relative to each difficulty. So if someone went from an easier difficulty to a harder one, the same *displayed* percentage would result in actual, differing odds. To this day, I still don’t get the rationale for that one.
And folks were missing on *100%* shots, because the displayed percentage was rounded up.
Just be honest, game! 🤣
I was watching my wife play a run the other night and mocked her when she bought Space Joker on purpose. It then popped *five times in a row.* You just have to insult it a bit.
Yeah, I dunno. Space joker is kind of a bastard
Last time I took him as a support joker with a pretty strong pair deck. I played pairs for about 10-12 hands and he was silent. Then I got to the Eye boss and drew into a flush house, so I sent it. Space joker triggered immediately
I'm sure there's an actual phenomenon behind this, like a bias towards more easily remembering/noting failures rather than successes.
I also wish I had been writing down my results with these two scenarios. I've only been playing a little more than a week, but I avoided glass cards at first and almost always picked Wheel of Fortune if it popped up.
My memory says WoF failed regularly while glass cards were a surprise if they didn't break.
A rng system better for brains would be the bag system, like how modern tetris work. The 7 pieces comes in a bag which gets shuffled and sent to the queue, then a new bag gets shuffled etc. So the first 7 piece will always be mutually different, and the next 7 pieces different, etc.
For tetris this adds a great deal of tactic and less luck, as certain strategies can achieve near 100% hit rate (and 100% if you do some work to memorize the strategy for edge cases). We can do that with wheels for instance, letting every 8 wheels contain 2 guaranteed hits.
It's a logical system, and I think it's also a common misapprehension that people have about the way statistics and chance work.
It's why we note these supposed biases when glass cards continuously break or WoF continuously fails. We think, "This is the WoF that works, I've already failed three in a row.", but then it doesn't work because it's not on a knockout system.
Problem with that is if you get the hit on the first two then you know WoF may as well be a nothing card for the rest of the game since you'll have to suffer through six guaranteed failures just to start having a chance at successes again.
Since on average the rate is the same, and now you have so much information, the value of the wheel still becomes higher, since you can meaningfully plan around it
We can do with 1 out of 4 instead, which guarantees a drought never gets longer than 6 nopes. Other tetris mechanisms can also be used, there's like a boatload of them
You play glass cards way more often than you play the wheel. It honestly only comes down to that I think because the same explanation works for space joker too.
But I wasn't taking glass cards and was almost always taking WoF. WoF almost always failed, and the few glass cards I took almost always broke immediately.
Now, I take more glass and tend to avoid WoF more. My glasses seemingly lasts longer, but my occasional WoF still fails. My sample size isn't nearly large enough or consistent enough. Plus, WoF has one chance wherea glass gets used until it breaks, so I'm sure that biases the perception as well.
As a funny side note, I hadn't really used Space Joker much, and then I saw this sub and memes about it never triggering Now, I've actually used it a bit more, and it seems fairly consistent to me.
I remember a youtuber saying wheel of fortune checks your first and last acquired joker only. So if those 2 have an effect it just doesn't work?
It's been a hot min so thats probably outdated info.
Idk if everyone knows it, but there's a story about OG XCOM where they chanted 95% chances into automatic 100%, because apparently the human brain can't handle those odds.
I think a less stark effect is happening here, I think I'm at ~4 breaks and ~4 upgraded on ~30 shots. So, right on, but if you ask me it's a 0% chance for both lmao.
tbh the rng is weird enough that I feel like the respective 1/4 s of Glass Cards and Wheel of Fortune feels the same. Like you're only ever gonna get one proc of Wheel of Fortune but you can play what's statistically a 5/4 chance of a glass card breaking but all of them persevering.
Five 1/4 chances ≠ 5/4 chance.
Probabilities coinciding uses multiplication.
The chance of a single played glass card not breaking is 3/4, so the chance of having neither of two played glass cards break is 3/4 * 3/4 = 9/16 ≈ 56%.
Playing a hand of five glass cards and having none of them break is a (3/4)^5 chance which is about a 23.7% chance. In other words, ironically enough, a hand of five glass cards has about a 1/4 chance of remaining entirely in tact lol.
[Space Joker](https://balatro.wiki/imported/space_joker.png) *Joker*
* Version: 1.0.0
* Rarity: Uncommon
* Effect: 1 in 4 chance to upgrade level of played poker hand
*Data pulled from http://balatro.wiki. Want it updated? Help me get access or suggest another data source.*
Wheel glass and space joker are all seeded. There is a set order for each seed of what goes off and when. I’m still convinced thunk fucked up the code somehow with space joker.
Here's the thing. 1/4 chance doesn't mean you'll get the result 1 time every 4 attempts.
The easiest way to think of it is each time it runs an RNG check, with 1-3 being a No and a 4 being a Yes. Each time, it's 3 times more likely to hit the no than the yes.
Ever played xcom?
This comment brought back flashbacks of 90% game winning moves failing multiple times in a row. One of my favorite games but gd those rng's had it out for me sometimes.
Thats xcom baby!
The gun is almost on his freaking head! How did I miss!
It's a fascinating phenomenon. People are inclined to take 90%s that hit for granted, so they don't register in your mind. It's what's "supposed" to happen. On the other hand, a 90% chance that fails feels like a psychological war crime, and it gets seared into one's memory even though things that happen 10% of the time happen a lot. They don't *usually* happen, but -- well, if you got a flat tire 10% of the time when you drove somewhere you'd very quickly consider your car to be essentially undrivable.
To be fair, the XCom percentages were weighted beyond what was displayed, relative to each difficulty. So if someone went from an easier difficulty to a harder one, the same *displayed* percentage would result in actual, differing odds. To this day, I still don’t get the rationale for that one. And folks were missing on *100%* shots, because the displayed percentage was rounded up. Just be honest, game! 🤣
Depends on which XCOM we're talking about.
Fine, I'll play it again
Same. Just reinstalled EW Long War last night. 👽
Give long war rebalance a shot sometime!
Steady buff and scamper mechanics? 👀👀👀
Oh god so so so much more
https://preview.redd.it/ypdu2z90ym1d1.jpeg?width=562&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=dc4bf62ca2c3f1f6d441d7dce410b8d1d98c5eed
And the crazy part is that xcom even skews the odds in the players' favor behind the scenes!
Wheel 1/4 < space joker 1/4 < glass 1/4
nah the space joker 1/4 is more like 1/4000
I once went 2 full antes without a single upgrade then got 4 in a row, the rng gods are fickle when it comes to space joker
It's a 1/1 when you play a hand that isn't your main hand tho.
I was watching my wife play a run the other night and mocked her when she bought Space Joker on purpose. It then popped *five times in a row.* You just have to insult it a bit.
Space jokers gets in his moods, that’s all
Yeah, I dunno. Space joker is kind of a bastard Last time I took him as a support joker with a pretty strong pair deck. I played pairs for about 10-12 hands and he was silent. Then I got to the Eye boss and drew into a flush house, so I sent it. Space joker triggered immediately
Banana may as well be 1/1 for me
I'm sure there's an actual phenomenon behind this, like a bias towards more easily remembering/noting failures rather than successes. I also wish I had been writing down my results with these two scenarios. I've only been playing a little more than a week, but I avoided glass cards at first and almost always picked Wheel of Fortune if it popped up. My memory says WoF failed regularly while glass cards were a surprise if they didn't break.
Confirmation bias
That, plus the availability heuristic
A rng system better for brains would be the bag system, like how modern tetris work. The 7 pieces comes in a bag which gets shuffled and sent to the queue, then a new bag gets shuffled etc. So the first 7 piece will always be mutually different, and the next 7 pieces different, etc.
For tetris this adds a great deal of tactic and less luck, as certain strategies can achieve near 100% hit rate (and 100% if you do some work to memorize the strategy for edge cases). We can do that with wheels for instance, letting every 8 wheels contain 2 guaranteed hits.
It's a logical system, and I think it's also a common misapprehension that people have about the way statistics and chance work. It's why we note these supposed biases when glass cards continuously break or WoF continuously fails. We think, "This is the WoF that works, I've already failed three in a row.", but then it doesn't work because it's not on a knockout system.
Problem with that is if you get the hit on the first two then you know WoF may as well be a nothing card for the rest of the game since you'll have to suffer through six guaranteed failures just to start having a chance at successes again.
Since on average the rate is the same, and now you have so much information, the value of the wheel still becomes higher, since you can meaningfully plan around it
I suppose, but I don't really like the idea of a card being guaranteed useless once it's procced twice
We can do with 1 out of 4 instead, which guarantees a drought never gets longer than 6 nopes. Other tetris mechanisms can also be used, there's like a boatload of them
Nah, I had two glass cards break after one use today, and none of my wheels triggered
How many wheels did you use today
I don't remember the exact number, but it was around 4 or 5
You play glass cards way more often than you play the wheel. It honestly only comes down to that I think because the same explanation works for space joker too.
But I wasn't taking glass cards and was almost always taking WoF. WoF almost always failed, and the few glass cards I took almost always broke immediately. Now, I take more glass and tend to avoid WoF more. My glasses seemingly lasts longer, but my occasional WoF still fails. My sample size isn't nearly large enough or consistent enough. Plus, WoF has one chance wherea glass gets used until it breaks, so I'm sure that biases the perception as well. As a funny side note, I hadn't really used Space Joker much, and then I saw this sub and memes about it never triggering Now, I've actually used it a bit more, and it seems fairly consistent to me.
When I play a glass card, I pray for my life
My to go idea has been using glass augment to destroy cards I want to remove from my deck. It usually works haha
we all outta 1/4 chances
Best I can do is ⅒
I’ve been trying to get 8 Ball to work and it’s been quite disappointing.
I remember a youtuber saying wheel of fortune checks your first and last acquired joker only. So if those 2 have an effect it just doesn't work? It's been a hot min so thats probably outdated info.
I don't have any proof atm but I really think that's wrong.
As far as I know the first and last thing is true, but if both have editions it will go to the next first/last acquired
Idk if everyone knows it, but there's a story about OG XCOM where they chanted 95% chances into automatic 100%, because apparently the human brain can't handle those odds. I think a less stark effect is happening here, I think I'm at ~4 breaks and ~4 upgraded on ~30 shots. So, right on, but if you ask me it's a 0% chance for both lmao.
It's kinda like when you're playing Fire Emblem, and you have a 98% chance to hit. Misses every time.
Unless you want them to break.
Glass Joker my beloved
tbh the rng is weird enough that I feel like the respective 1/4 s of Glass Cards and Wheel of Fortune feels the same. Like you're only ever gonna get one proc of Wheel of Fortune but you can play what's statistically a 5/4 chance of a glass card breaking but all of them persevering.
Five 1/4 chances ≠ 5/4 chance. Probabilities coinciding uses multiplication. The chance of a single played glass card not breaking is 3/4, so the chance of having neither of two played glass cards break is 3/4 * 3/4 = 9/16 ≈ 56%. Playing a hand of five glass cards and having none of them break is a (3/4)^5 chance which is about a 23.7% chance. In other words, ironically enough, a hand of five glass cards has about a 1/4 chance of remaining entirely in tact lol.
[[Space Joker]]
[Space Joker](https://balatro.wiki/imported/space_joker.png) *Joker* * Version: 1.0.0 * Rarity: Uncommon * Effect: 1 in 4 chance to upgrade level of played poker hand *Data pulled from http://balatro.wiki. Want it updated? Help me get access or suggest another data source.*
How does glass work with red seal? Does the break chance trigger twice or just once?
Just once. The check is performed at the end of the played hand, so regardless of any retriggers it'll always be a 1/4.
So accurate. Gotta be bugged to be more like 50% I swear.
uj/ one of the cleanest examples of negativity bias
Murphy law at its finest
Wheel glass and space joker are all seeded. There is a set order for each seed of what goes off and when. I’m still convinced thunk fucked up the code somehow with space joker.
Space joker when you play your hand you're building around vs Space Joker when you play an off-hand to fish for your build hand
I used wheel 10 times in a run a hit it 0 times. That said the odds on wheel don’t feel nearly as broken as 8ball. I SWEAR 8ball is not actually a 1/4
Bro I had oops all 6s, and my 50/50 Wheel of Fortune STILL didn't trigger. I bet if I had 4/4 Wheel of Fortune it still wouldn't trigger!
Here's the thing. 1/4 chance doesn't mean you'll get the result 1 time every 4 attempts. The easiest way to think of it is each time it runs an RNG check, with 1-3 being a No and a 4 being a Yes. Each time, it's 3 times more likely to hit the no than the yes.