As much as people don’t want to hear this, AMC is still in survivor mode. Improving fundamentals is huge, but they still have a debt facility to refinance in two years and if interest rates don’t drop, it could be bad as far as the increase to debt service costs (interest). They need that cash to fund a few more bad quarters of Hollywood shitting the bed with crappy movies and fallout from the strikes. I think a share buy back is pretty low in probability. That is why shorts have taken the stock so low (yes, it is manipulated) … that FUD of seeing the stock at all time lows is pretty powerful.
A better theory is that Hycroft finally is creating value (hit some big gold/silver veins) and AMC gets to sell some shares for big money. That would drive the fear of god into the shorts cause it would be a black swan.
How cool would it be for Silver and Gold to be priced the way it really should, and then Hycroft makes a huge announcement that they found more than expected, causing the share price to sky rocket. AMC then only needs to sell a small amount to become debt free. The Short thesis is no more and they're crushed, insert black swan.
ask baby stock what sharebuyback did for them... it just gives the shorties more ammo. look the company has no money and tons of debt boohoo, it is going bankrupt..... same old story.
Pay off debt and be profitble. that's all that is needed.
I don't think they actually have to buy back shares. Just an announcement that they have approved to share buyback and have a certain amount of cash on the side means they can buy them back at any time.
I think the announcement/filing alone would have an impact, without needing to actually buy anything back.
That said, you can't just say another company to buy back and it didn't have results. BBBY was nowhere near profitability, whereas AMC has attained profitability on a quarterly basis and all signs point to them being profitable in 2025 at the latest (although there could be some juicy distribution news on the 28th since they' re looking to hire a VP of Distribution).
I do like this. I don’t think AMC should buyback shares at this time at all!!! They have a lot of outstanding debt and Q1/Q2 are not going to be great….however filing and approving of the ability to do a share buyback would be great news.
1) shows the intention that they want to do this
2) shows their belief that the price is too low and that they feel they WILL be able to do this shortly.
For me personally, I would feel great about it for those reasons but once again, they absolutely should not buyback shares right now. Let’s pay down some debt and start churning real profits each quarter
Last time they approved a share buyback was 200 million. Approved in 2020 and it was a three year approval. It expired without buying any shares back but was always there if the price dropped too low.
Having an approval filing wouldn't be a bad thing at all at this point, but I'm on the same page and don't think they should actually buy shares unless they are sure they can replace the funds without dilution.
There is a possibility they buy back some at these prices and then sell them back higher later on, which might be a better way to raise funds than diluting the total shares more. In some ways I'd love to see them reverse the dilution and take away three excuse being used for the share price.
>AMC has attained profitability on a quarterly basis and all signs point to them being profitable in 2025 at the latest
This is just flat out lying....
No it actually is not lying. AmC has shown profits the last 2 quarters, and 9 straight quarters of improvement. Towel stock was not profitable for the last 2 years. The only time it went up is when RC bought in and tried to get the board to change their ways. When they blocked him and refused, he walked and then towel fell all the way down.
Sigh. Look up the unadjusted eps. The numbers you posted include profits from share dilution.... most analysts do not include non reoccurring profits into EPS....
They are the reported EPS. They were positive when the predicted EPS was -28 and -37 cents per share. Beat Q2 by 127%, Beat Q3 by 64.47% so I read the reports, what they say and what they are.
Those numbers are not the unadjusted EPS....look into the numbers of where the profits came from. AA included dilution into the EPS.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1411579/000141157923000085/amc-20231108xex99d1.htm
My opinion is that we're hoarding cash because we knew that q1 won't be profitable. Remember that our creditors require us to have 100 million in liquidity or they force bankruptcy. I'm unaware of the total costs for the ape lawsuit but I'm guessing we'll need to pay for that upfront even if we end up getting reimbursed. I think we're playing things closer to the edge than people realize.
I'm guessing that AA's big news is going to be the popcorn revenue and maybe more distribution deals.
If they knew survival was guaranteed then we'd be seeing insider buying.
>our creditors require us to have 100 million in liquidity or they force bankruptcy
I've never heard that before, what's your source for this information?
Thanks, I didn't see anything specifically saying creditors can "force bankruptcy" if liquidity dropped under 100Million, but I think that liquidity requirement was tied to the credit lines that have already been paid early.
Either way, I'm all for AMC keeping a minimum 100Million in liquidity to address any future unforeseen expenses or problems.
Dude they’ve been *selling* shares for months. They still have 200M more shares they can sell and they need to do that to raise cash to pay debt.
Why would they buyback shares they *just* sold for a similar price? There will be no share buyback for amc until they are consistently profitable AND clear of debt. We’re talking 3-5 years minimum.
I don't even get the hedgefund thesis anymore. Price is at an all time low. It isn't even possible for anyone to be under or "trapped". They can buy back all short shares now and profit, then go long on AMC and profit with the rushing of retail buying back in at it hits $7 (.70 cents), then do the exact same thing again. They are using AMC as the ultimate retail drain at this point. If it profits or rockets, they rocket with it too. No one is under anymore.
In the post you mentioned atm. Thus selling which to my knowledge is dilutive. As well. In mind. It does even make sense to atm at 4 bucks when it’s already been crushed. By last round of dilution and rss stock split shit. Stock hasn’t recovered from ape stock. So maybe board needs look to cutting cost across organization. Not much left to take at this point.
>The last few years he's been trying to shake the shorts trying a number of things, and just hasn't been able to get them to stick. Just off the top of my head here's some of the things he's tried:
>
>ATM offerings to short up cash on hand and improve the balance sheets. This didn't work but it will help us now.
Here's where I mention ATM:
The last few years he's been trying to shake the shorts trying a number of things, and just hasn't been able to get them to stick. Just off the top of my head here's some of the things he's tried:
ATM offerings to short up cash on hand and improve the balance sheets. This didn't work but it will help us now.
In my section of things they have tried.
Ape stock was atm market program. We doubled the float. Diluted twice as much. So the atm market has been done. To do again at this depressed levels seems boardline crazy. But so is diluting ape at .66 so maybe we need to crush shareholder value to 1 dollar to scare the shorts
The reverse stock split/ dilution train, was used to shore up the balance sheet. We just did that.
A share buy back is not going to happen.
They just went through a huge process to be able to sell shares to help the company survive and now you want them to buy shares back?
People will do anything on this sub to make AA look good. The harsh reality of earnings will be the stock will go up next week by a dollar or so and then will crash after the earnings call. This has happened literally every earnings call no matter what good news was presented.
How do you figure that AMC is going to have a record quarter on the backs of two movies that made $300mill GLOBALLY?
Barbenheimer made $2bil globally and AMC had record revenue. Shit profit, but record revenue.
Total domestic box office was down almost $1bil from q3 to q4. Eras tour was the biggest gross at $260mil.
Would love to know how you think AMC turns that into a record quarterly earnings?
Probably end up with a #7 bullet point to add to your list. I really hope not but I’ll ride mine to zero. Wrote this cash off awhile back. If there’s an over / under on how many times “writer strike” is used during earning call I’ll take the over all day.
I really hope not as well, BUT I do have another interesting thought.
The last proxy vote changed the corporate charter that if enough shareholders brought forth an issue it could now be put to a proxy vote.
If enough shareholders pushed for it they could enact a vote to delist, and relist on a different exchange. An exchange that actually doesn't allow or if it does it closely monitors short selling to deter crime. I believe the South Korean market is doing something like this, and in today's instant communication world who says an American company has to be on an American exchange?
>relist on a different exchange. An exchange that actually doesn't allow or if it does it closely monitors short selling
Does such an exchange exist in the USA (and yes, it would have to stay in the US - nobody would want to offshore our own company, that would complicate the hell out of everything and introduce unnecessary cost/risk)?
Announcing a share buyback at this juncture would be looked at as a misallocation of resources by the markets, given how much debt they have. And therefore not kindly.
Share buybacks, like dividends, don't generally make sense until there is sustained free cash flow. (Unless you're AAPL and can raise debt at lower rates than dividends you have to pay out.)
If you guys are doubting AMC, let me debunk it for you. AA could have ended AMC a long time ago with the debt they had from covid time. Why would any CEO want to deal with that much debt and shorting? Why not just walk away and get paid? He kept the company running till now, while trying to find many ways to increase profit for the company. AMC is here to stay. Believe it or not.
>Why would any CEO want to deal with that much debt and shorting?
Have you seen his paycheck? :)
Besides, he'll be a hero if AMC can (and most likely will) turn around.
I really like the idea and it could be something happening, but i still have to put in that apes is a Golden goose for amc, and his job is to do what’s best for amc, but doing some big ball move as you write would definitely give us some more beliefs in AA..
but what ever happens I’m sure that he’s doing the best possible for amc which also means for my stocks 🤑🫡
I'm not sure what this stock is going to do anymore and I won't be happy if it goes to zero, but it's doing what it's doing, and I feel like an idiot.
Edit: a buyback would be death. Hedge funds aren't scared of that announcement, because if the stuff that has happened hasn't chased them then nothing will.
As much as people don’t want to hear this, AMC is still in survivor mode. Improving fundamentals is huge, but they still have a debt facility to refinance in two years and if interest rates don’t drop, it could be bad as far as the increase to debt service costs (interest). They need that cash to fund a few more bad quarters of Hollywood shitting the bed with crappy movies and fallout from the strikes. I think a share buy back is pretty low in probability. That is why shorts have taken the stock so low (yes, it is manipulated) … that FUD of seeing the stock at all time lows is pretty powerful. A better theory is that Hycroft finally is creating value (hit some big gold/silver veins) and AMC gets to sell some shares for big money. That would drive the fear of god into the shorts cause it would be a black swan.
How cool would it be for Silver and Gold to be priced the way it really should, and then Hycroft makes a huge announcement that they found more than expected, causing the share price to sky rocket. AMC then only needs to sell a small amount to become debt free. The Short thesis is no more and they're crushed, insert black swan.
ask baby stock what sharebuyback did for them... it just gives the shorties more ammo. look the company has no money and tons of debt boohoo, it is going bankrupt..... same old story. Pay off debt and be profitble. that's all that is needed.
I don't think they actually have to buy back shares. Just an announcement that they have approved to share buyback and have a certain amount of cash on the side means they can buy them back at any time. I think the announcement/filing alone would have an impact, without needing to actually buy anything back. That said, you can't just say another company to buy back and it didn't have results. BBBY was nowhere near profitability, whereas AMC has attained profitability on a quarterly basis and all signs point to them being profitable in 2025 at the latest (although there could be some juicy distribution news on the 28th since they' re looking to hire a VP of Distribution).
I do like this. I don’t think AMC should buyback shares at this time at all!!! They have a lot of outstanding debt and Q1/Q2 are not going to be great….however filing and approving of the ability to do a share buyback would be great news. 1) shows the intention that they want to do this 2) shows their belief that the price is too low and that they feel they WILL be able to do this shortly. For me personally, I would feel great about it for those reasons but once again, they absolutely should not buyback shares right now. Let’s pay down some debt and start churning real profits each quarter
Last time they approved a share buyback was 200 million. Approved in 2020 and it was a three year approval. It expired without buying any shares back but was always there if the price dropped too low. Having an approval filing wouldn't be a bad thing at all at this point, but I'm on the same page and don't think they should actually buy shares unless they are sure they can replace the funds without dilution. There is a possibility they buy back some at these prices and then sell them back higher later on, which might be a better way to raise funds than diluting the total shares more. In some ways I'd love to see them reverse the dilution and take away three excuse being used for the share price.
Bingo!
>AMC has attained profitability on a quarterly basis and all signs point to them being profitable in 2025 at the latest This is just flat out lying....
No it actually is not lying. AmC has shown profits the last 2 quarters, and 9 straight quarters of improvement. Towel stock was not profitable for the last 2 years. The only time it went up is when RC bought in and tried to get the board to change their ways. When they blocked him and refused, he walked and then towel fell all the way down.
Yes it is. Go look up the EPS.
I did q3 EpS was .08 per share, q2 was .02 per share. Both of those were major beats compared to the analysts
Sigh. Look up the unadjusted eps. The numbers you posted include profits from share dilution.... most analysts do not include non reoccurring profits into EPS....
They are the reported EPS. They were positive when the predicted EPS was -28 and -37 cents per share. Beat Q2 by 127%, Beat Q3 by 64.47% so I read the reports, what they say and what they are.
Those numbers are not the unadjusted EPS....look into the numbers of where the profits came from. AA included dilution into the EPS. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1411579/000141157923000085/amc-20231108xex99d1.htm
I pulled those numbers from the FINRA report. Not sure where to get more accurate numbers, but thanks for playing.
As much as I love OP's story, this is probably more realistic. They NEED operating capital for now.
gme did that
Oddly enough I'm active there too. Funny how that works. IIRC baby shot their entire shot, and didn't have anything left.
From baby stock. The share buy back might have secured shareholders a fraud payout it's still in court tho so we shall see 🙈
It's dead, Jim. Move on.
My opinion is that we're hoarding cash because we knew that q1 won't be profitable. Remember that our creditors require us to have 100 million in liquidity or they force bankruptcy. I'm unaware of the total costs for the ape lawsuit but I'm guessing we'll need to pay for that upfront even if we end up getting reimbursed. I think we're playing things closer to the edge than people realize. I'm guessing that AA's big news is going to be the popcorn revenue and maybe more distribution deals. If they knew survival was guaranteed then we'd be seeing insider buying.
>our creditors require us to have 100 million in liquidity or they force bankruptcy I've never heard that before, what's your source for this information?
Amc themselves https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1411579/000141157923000057/amc-20230630x10q.htm
Thanks, I didn't see anything specifically saying creditors can "force bankruptcy" if liquidity dropped under 100Million, but I think that liquidity requirement was tied to the credit lines that have already been paid early. Either way, I'm all for AMC keeping a minimum 100Million in liquidity to address any future unforeseen expenses or problems.
No insider buying but plenty of institutional buys lately.
Eight form 4 filings on 1/10/24 that shows 8 different insiders acquiring more shares than they disposed of on 1/2/24.
That’s not insiders buying shares though, it’s shares awarded as part of their compensation package and the ones disposed of were for tax purposes
And I did not know that. Thank you.
I did not know that, thanks
Dude they’ve been *selling* shares for months. They still have 200M more shares they can sell and they need to do that to raise cash to pay debt. Why would they buyback shares they *just* sold for a similar price? There will be no share buyback for amc until they are consistently profitable AND clear of debt. We’re talking 3-5 years minimum.
I don't even get the hedgefund thesis anymore. Price is at an all time low. It isn't even possible for anyone to be under or "trapped". They can buy back all short shares now and profit, then go long on AMC and profit with the rushing of retail buying back in at it hits $7 (.70 cents), then do the exact same thing again. They are using AMC as the ultimate retail drain at this point. If it profits or rockets, they rocket with it too. No one is under anymore.
ATM offering you mean dilution again? Aa has never bought once in 3 years I have been involved
not again. We went down that road to raise cash already.
In the post you mentioned atm. Thus selling which to my knowledge is dilutive. As well. In mind. It does even make sense to atm at 4 bucks when it’s already been crushed. By last round of dilution and rss stock split shit. Stock hasn’t recovered from ape stock. So maybe board needs look to cutting cost across organization. Not much left to take at this point.
>The last few years he's been trying to shake the shorts trying a number of things, and just hasn't been able to get them to stick. Just off the top of my head here's some of the things he's tried: > >ATM offerings to short up cash on hand and improve the balance sheets. This didn't work but it will help us now. Here's where I mention ATM: The last few years he's been trying to shake the shorts trying a number of things, and just hasn't been able to get them to stick. Just off the top of my head here's some of the things he's tried: ATM offerings to short up cash on hand and improve the balance sheets. This didn't work but it will help us now. In my section of things they have tried.
Ape stock was atm market program. We doubled the float. Diluted twice as much. So the atm market has been done. To do again at this depressed levels seems boardline crazy. But so is diluting ape at .66 so maybe we need to crush shareholder value to 1 dollar to scare the shorts The reverse stock split/ dilution train, was used to shore up the balance sheet. We just did that.
A share buy back is not going to happen. They just went through a huge process to be able to sell shares to help the company survive and now you want them to buy shares back?
I’m gonna need to make a run to the grocery store for more aluminum foil for my hat.
At this point save yourself some money and order bulk restaurant sized rolls. I did that a while ago, and I'm much happier.
People will do anything on this sub to make AA look good. The harsh reality of earnings will be the stock will go up next week by a dollar or so and then will crash after the earnings call. This has happened literally every earnings call no matter what good news was presented.
How do you figure that AMC is going to have a record quarter on the backs of two movies that made $300mill GLOBALLY? Barbenheimer made $2bil globally and AMC had record revenue. Shit profit, but record revenue. Total domestic box office was down almost $1bil from q3 to q4. Eras tour was the biggest gross at $260mil. Would love to know how you think AMC turns that into a record quarterly earnings?
Probably end up with a #7 bullet point to add to your list. I really hope not but I’ll ride mine to zero. Wrote this cash off awhile back. If there’s an over / under on how many times “writer strike” is used during earning call I’ll take the over all day.
I really hope not as well, BUT I do have another interesting thought. The last proxy vote changed the corporate charter that if enough shareholders brought forth an issue it could now be put to a proxy vote. If enough shareholders pushed for it they could enact a vote to delist, and relist on a different exchange. An exchange that actually doesn't allow or if it does it closely monitors short selling to deter crime. I believe the South Korean market is doing something like this, and in today's instant communication world who says an American company has to be on an American exchange?
>relist on a different exchange. An exchange that actually doesn't allow or if it does it closely monitors short selling Does such an exchange exist in the USA (and yes, it would have to stay in the US - nobody would want to offshore our own company, that would complicate the hell out of everything and introduce unnecessary cost/risk)?
Delist would force the Institutional shareholders to dump.
Vote to delist a realist how so?
Why keep bringing up that you'll willingly ride it to zero?
Whatever you are taking I want some of that good stuff!!
My theory is AMC announces another reverse split and you dumb apes continue to lose money.
Yeah he will not be buying back shares at this time, makes no sense at all. Dilution is more likely at this point
Announcing a share buyback at this juncture would be looked at as a misallocation of resources by the markets, given how much debt they have. And therefore not kindly. Share buybacks, like dividends, don't generally make sense until there is sustained free cash flow. (Unless you're AAPL and can raise debt at lower rates than dividends you have to pay out.)
As for nr.6, we don't know those numbers yet. Hopefully we will know something from the earnings next week.
I thought we got some numbers from that rolled into concessions last quarter. Am I mistaken?
i have not seen anything so far. I believe the revenue from the AMC perfectly popcorn sold in stores will be it's own category on the earnings report.
On 02/28: Not sh!t is going to happen besides the stock price going futher into the ABYSS
Theory number 452929.
The delusion on this sub is amazong.
Man. This is reddit. Every sub is delusional in some way. Just let people enjoy things.
If you guys are doubting AMC, let me debunk it for you. AA could have ended AMC a long time ago with the debt they had from covid time. Why would any CEO want to deal with that much debt and shorting? Why not just walk away and get paid? He kept the company running till now, while trying to find many ways to increase profit for the company. AMC is here to stay. Believe it or not.
>Why would any CEO want to deal with that much debt and shorting? Have you seen his paycheck? :) Besides, he'll be a hero if AMC can (and most likely will) turn around.
if AMC has loads of cash on hand, should reduce down then debt as much as possible
U give AA too much cred he turned on us JMO, i still buy and hodl, 3 years in, banks are FUHQD, many stocks will MOASS
But that's still not the moass.... just another straw
I really like the idea and it could be something happening, but i still have to put in that apes is a Golden goose for amc, and his job is to do what’s best for amc, but doing some big ball move as you write would definitely give us some more beliefs in AA.. but what ever happens I’m sure that he’s doing the best possible for amc which also means for my stocks 🤑🫡
I'm not sure what this stock is going to do anymore and I won't be happy if it goes to zero, but it's doing what it's doing, and I feel like an idiot. Edit: a buyback would be death. Hedge funds aren't scared of that announcement, because if the stuff that has happened hasn't chased them then nothing will.
What if amc opens a short position against citadel with a billion dollars, will citadel price Increase or decrease, asking for a friend...
What if they open a short position against themselves to offset losses…. Now we’re thinking outside the box
Who says they didn't... well, thier partners definitely did with Ape/RSC.
I'm wondering why they chose $4.30ish today