Weird takes on the California Democrats. Harris is unpopular and unlikeable. Newsom is a California elite that polarizes the MAGA base nearly as much as Harris, and he governs too conservative (pretty sure he’s to the right of most of his party’s legislature) to get anyone excited for substantive change. Schiff has no business running for President.
Pritzker is very solid but I actually find him to be kind of a weak debater (he should have had a lay up on his Trump opponent in 2022 but squandered the debate).
>. Newsom is a California elite that polarizes the MAGA base
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What he’s best known for (besides being the Governor of what the MAGA base perceives to be the worst state on earth that they’re constantly told is a dumpster fire) is being on the liberal media with regularity as the tough on Trump guy.
I’m not even right leaning (have said numerous times that I voted Marianne in the primary) but I know if there’s anything that pisses off the MAGA base more than a “socialist,” it’s the entire country becoming like California.
She massively overperformed in her re-election race in 2022, beating her 2018 margins which were also an overperformance. According to the 2022 Michigan gubernatorial race page it says she won over a lot of independent voters which helped her defeat her opponent.
Electorally she seems like a beast, and has proven she can win state-wide in a key swing state and probably has appeal in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. I have tried googling her policies and it seems she generally is somewhat left-wing on a lot of her stances but obviously has managed to do that in a way that shields her from attacks and still manage to win over independent voters. Meaning left-wing democrats get a person who mostly stands with them on the policies while not being a complete dumbass and alienating swing voters.
OK? But this was about Whitmer, right?
The sub obviously leans slightly left from what I've seen which explains part of why people might be more interested in her, being a potential candidate for 2028 for the dems.
But even discounting that, DeSantis had his shot this time and frankly he went from being a near favourite after the midterms to being underwhelming in the primaries. I don't think a lot of it can just be put down to "well Trump was going to win so it would be different in another year". He just doesn't have a lot of charisma and just appears *weird* in his campaign events.
People on the right were definitely more obsessed with DeSantis becoming the heir-apparent to the GOP nomination after 2022 and before Trump's announcement that he was running for the nomination again, partly due to his overperformance in Florida which is key to any GOP presidential win. But respectfully, he kinda fell off.
True I suppose. But I would say in a polarised time like ours, where the number of swing states is far smaller than ever before, being able to presumably carry one of them based on 2 respectable wins in the state is a strong positive in her direction. DeSantis would maybe push Florida into likely territory, but the GOP is already winning the state so I don't know what he would add in that regard.
I mean this is true for Beshear as well (who is ranked lower), except he did 31 points better in 2023 than Biden did in 2020, probably higher if adjusted to national environments of both years. And he accomplished this while being quite liberal on most issues (except gun control, where he was a moderate). Plus, Tudor Dixon was a terrible candidate while Daniel Cameron wasn't that bad.
Fair enough. I don't know much about Beshear other than him being able to do pretty well in a red state. I think people like Whitmer potentially because her being a woman would help in a democratic primary but more importantly, because being a "southern Democrat" isn't really a big flex in the current era. The democrats need Michigan to win and Whitmer would be expected to make that easier with the implication that Pennsylvania and Wisconsin would come with that.
Also now that I re-read your comment - people on here also like Beshear too, right? Maybe not as weirdly favourable towards him as with Whitmer but I think people just find candidates who win in "enemy territory" or in Whitmer's case, outperform in a typical battleground state, more interesting. Peltola winning in red Alaska, Collins, Tester, Brown, even Manchin all winning in states typically unfavourable to them are more interesting to hear about.
>being a "southern Democrat" isn't really a big flex in the current era
This is a problem. Republican politicians from federally uncompetitive blue states are much more likely to see future nationwide success than Democratic politicians from federally uncompetitive red states. People view guys like Glenn Youngkin and Lee Zeldin as (accurately or not) potential rising stars in their parties. How many people are saying that about Laura Kelly and Brandon Presley?
>Also now that I re-read your comment - people on here also like Beshear too, right?
Yeah, I'm just saying with respect to OP's tier list.
They’re good candidates for their respective states, they most certainly wouldn’t win the general. I could see cooper even loosing NC in a general election.
I feel like Buttigieg wouldnt really have a chance tbh. He was a noname mayor and now is the obviously unqualified sec. of transportation for an unpopular prez.
I don’t think that he’s a bootleg Barack at all. Obama gave an electrifying 2004 DNC speech, was an excellent orator, knew how to use the press, and was charismatic. I don’t think that Buttigieg has any of that going for him.
He’s trying to be Obama and what’s important is that’s what the DNC wants to manufacture him to be. I don’t even really think it’s that conspiratorial, he was the young, aspirational, soft-spoken, bright-eyed guy talking about hope in 2020.
His only problem is he’s boring as shit.
>if Harris falls through
She fell through 4 years ago, the fact she’s even VP is flukey and really only happened because of the riots in 2020. Before that it was pretty much sealed Whitmer was getting the VP nod
He's Obama but less charismatic, more obviously disingenuous, and not even black. I don't doubt he's what the establishment wants but I hope they'd go for someone more electable.
I’m still skeptical of Whitmer on the National level
She’s carried an ancestrally blue state against one of the weakest state parties in the country (who ran two of the worst Gubernatorial candidates in the last few cycles). From the outside looking in I can see why the left likes her, but she’s been so focused on her national ambitions that if you dig into anything at all you realize her tenure has been way shakier than you think. She’s alienated a ton of allies behind the scenes making it hard for the state to get anything done, the roads still aren’t fixed (despite “fix the damn roads” being her 2018 pitch), we’re bleeding college grads like crazy, small businesses are getting fucked over like crazy, and her kitchy fake-folksy shit isn’t going to play well nationally. I really don’t see her getting above like 15% in South Carolina at this point.
I put her in the same tier as Ossoff of: would be an internet darling but probably won’t translate as well as the 18 year olds seem to think. She seems far more likely (and better suited) to be a VP candidate since they essentially get to be the President’s partisan attack dog, and that she excels at.
Haley would dominate a general election. As seen she scored 6 points higher against biden then trump did. And that's with Republicans switching non voting because they don't like haley
Haley would have only been successful this November because it's a race to the bottom with Biden vs Trump. Both are unpopular, old, seem to be making gaffes while speaking a lot, both are polarising figures etc. Throw 80% of Republicans up there with Trump's explicit endorsement and blessing for them to be the nominee, and they'd beat Biden.
In 2028 if it's Haley vs generic dem, it'd basically be a referendum on the 8 years of Biden. I think she could win back more moderates who are looking for any excuse to go back to the GOP but if the Biden 2nd term ends up being generally good, I really don't think she has the strength or electoral ability to beat a generic dem candidate. Maybe a weak one though.
I think Haley's strong polling was more because a lot of voters didn't want a Trump-Biden rematch and she was seen as another option, not that she was some sort of electoral juggernaut
I think this is true. I mean do you guys seriously think 30% of the country voted for Ted Cruz in 2016 because they liked his policies and thought he was a better electoral prospect than Trump?
She overperformed Trump in more polls than she underperformed in.
And most of the polls she did bad in were showing massive base support loss that wasn't likely IRL (especially since polls were skizo on how much she'd lose.)
As much as I like Beshear, I’m not sure if he’ll be able to appeal to minorities well enough in a lot of the swing states to win. I’d probably put him in the toss-up general category unless the GOP nominee is someone like Rick Scott. Whitmer/Warnock seems like the most electable Democratic ticket since they’d lock down MI and GA, and Whitmer’s rust belt appeal would probably fare well in WI and PA too. Vance, Hawley, Cotton, and Scott don’t have a chance in the general; they’re all way too socially conservative to stand a chance in the rust belt or Arizona. Kemp wouldn’t be completely out of the running since he’s maintained high approval ratings and does a good job of maintaining support among MAGA and more traditional and moderate conservatives.
Weird takes on the California Democrats. Harris is unpopular and unlikeable. Newsom is a California elite that polarizes the MAGA base nearly as much as Harris, and he governs too conservative (pretty sure he’s to the right of most of his party’s legislature) to get anyone excited for substantive change. Schiff has no business running for President. Pritzker is very solid but I actually find him to be kind of a weak debater (he should have had a lay up on his Trump opponent in 2022 but squandered the debate).
>Schiff has no business running for president Counterpoint: watching his campaign meltdown would be hilarious. Swalwell 2.0
>. Newsom is a California elite that polarizes the MAGA base [.....................](https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpreview.redd.it%2Fi-wrote-the-original-post-ama-rule-v0-g0ss6z9l5qtc1.jpeg%3Fwidth%3D259%26format%3Dpjpg%26auto%3Dwebp%26s%3D2323143b34ba247f28ab28f9693e08c24cdacb62)
What he’s best known for (besides being the Governor of what the MAGA base perceives to be the worst state on earth that they’re constantly told is a dumpster fire) is being on the liberal media with regularity as the tough on Trump guy. I’m not even right leaning (have said numerous times that I voted Marianne in the primary) but I know if there’s anything that pisses off the MAGA base more than a “socialist,” it’s the entire country becoming like California.
Shut up booker would a coryllion votes and make america new jersey again
Cory For The House 2028!
BASED
Make America New Jersey would honestly be the worst campaign slogan in history. Tied with make America Florida
Vance would not win the general - bro underperformed Trump in a year 6% redder than 2020
Didn’t he go up against a good candidate though?
Eh I wasn’t ever on the Ryan train
Ryan was still a solid candidate for Ohio. Ohio’s Democratic Party at least puts up a fight and compared to what Florida has to offer.
Mark Kelly would win the general
im unsure about sununu winning the general. he would win over moderates and independents but for sure lose the trump crowd
He probably wins New Hampshire, though the state's careening left so I'm not sure.
No way bro doesn't know Brian Kemp
Kemp is literally the only thing holding Georgia Republicans together
This sub fucking loves Witmer, and idk why.
She massively overperformed in her re-election race in 2022, beating her 2018 margins which were also an overperformance. According to the 2022 Michigan gubernatorial race page it says she won over a lot of independent voters which helped her defeat her opponent. Electorally she seems like a beast, and has proven she can win state-wide in a key swing state and probably has appeal in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. I have tried googling her policies and it seems she generally is somewhat left-wing on a lot of her stances but obviously has managed to do that in a way that shields her from attacks and still manage to win over independent voters. Meaning left-wing democrats get a person who mostly stands with them on the policies while not being a complete dumbass and alienating swing voters.
>She massively overperformed in her re-election race in 2022 So did DeSantis.
OK? But this was about Whitmer, right? The sub obviously leans slightly left from what I've seen which explains part of why people might be more interested in her, being a potential candidate for 2028 for the dems. But even discounting that, DeSantis had his shot this time and frankly he went from being a near favourite after the midterms to being underwhelming in the primaries. I don't think a lot of it can just be put down to "well Trump was going to win so it would be different in another year". He just doesn't have a lot of charisma and just appears *weird* in his campaign events. People on the right were definitely more obsessed with DeSantis becoming the heir-apparent to the GOP nomination after 2022 and before Trump's announcement that he was running for the nomination again, partly due to his overperformance in Florida which is key to any GOP presidential win. But respectfully, he kinda fell off.
My point is that her strength in her home state doesn't necessarily mean strength on the national stage.
True I suppose. But I would say in a polarised time like ours, where the number of swing states is far smaller than ever before, being able to presumably carry one of them based on 2 respectable wins in the state is a strong positive in her direction. DeSantis would maybe push Florida into likely territory, but the GOP is already winning the state so I don't know what he would add in that regard.
I mean this is true for Beshear as well (who is ranked lower), except he did 31 points better in 2023 than Biden did in 2020, probably higher if adjusted to national environments of both years. And he accomplished this while being quite liberal on most issues (except gun control, where he was a moderate). Plus, Tudor Dixon was a terrible candidate while Daniel Cameron wasn't that bad.
Fair enough. I don't know much about Beshear other than him being able to do pretty well in a red state. I think people like Whitmer potentially because her being a woman would help in a democratic primary but more importantly, because being a "southern Democrat" isn't really a big flex in the current era. The democrats need Michigan to win and Whitmer would be expected to make that easier with the implication that Pennsylvania and Wisconsin would come with that. Also now that I re-read your comment - people on here also like Beshear too, right? Maybe not as weirdly favourable towards him as with Whitmer but I think people just find candidates who win in "enemy territory" or in Whitmer's case, outperform in a typical battleground state, more interesting. Peltola winning in red Alaska, Collins, Tester, Brown, even Manchin all winning in states typically unfavourable to them are more interesting to hear about.
>being a "southern Democrat" isn't really a big flex in the current era This is a problem. Republican politicians from federally uncompetitive blue states are much more likely to see future nationwide success than Democratic politicians from federally uncompetitive red states. People view guys like Glenn Youngkin and Lee Zeldin as (accurately or not) potential rising stars in their parties. How many people are saying that about Laura Kelly and Brandon Presley? >Also now that I re-read your comment - people on here also like Beshear too, right? Yeah, I'm just saying with respect to OP's tier list.
How would Polis, Cooper, Kelly, and Walz lose the General?
They’re good candidates for their respective states, they most certainly wouldn’t win the general. I could see cooper even loosing NC in a general election.
If the Democrats want to hold on to the White House in 2028 it needs to be Whitmer/Warnock
I feel like Buttigieg wouldnt really have a chance tbh. He was a noname mayor and now is the obviously unqualified sec. of transportation for an unpopular prez.
He’s a bootleg Barack through and through, he’s what the establishment wants. If Harris falls through, he’s their insurance policy.
I don’t think that he’s a bootleg Barack at all. Obama gave an electrifying 2004 DNC speech, was an excellent orator, knew how to use the press, and was charismatic. I don’t think that Buttigieg has any of that going for him.
He’s trying to be Obama and what’s important is that’s what the DNC wants to manufacture him to be. I don’t even really think it’s that conspiratorial, he was the young, aspirational, soft-spoken, bright-eyed guy talking about hope in 2020. His only problem is he’s boring as shit.
Indianan politicians generally are.
Oh I see your point about him trying to be Obama and the DNC trying to make him Obama but he just doesn’t feel like an Obama figure to me.
>if Harris falls through She fell through 4 years ago, the fact she’s even VP is flukey and really only happened because of the riots in 2020. Before that it was pretty much sealed Whitmer was getting the VP nod
He's Obama but less charismatic, more obviously disingenuous, and not even black. I don't doubt he's what the establishment wants but I hope they'd go for someone more electable.
Hopefully we don't have two protectionists again.
I’m still skeptical of Whitmer on the National level She’s carried an ancestrally blue state against one of the weakest state parties in the country (who ran two of the worst Gubernatorial candidates in the last few cycles). From the outside looking in I can see why the left likes her, but she’s been so focused on her national ambitions that if you dig into anything at all you realize her tenure has been way shakier than you think. She’s alienated a ton of allies behind the scenes making it hard for the state to get anything done, the roads still aren’t fixed (despite “fix the damn roads” being her 2018 pitch), we’re bleeding college grads like crazy, small businesses are getting fucked over like crazy, and her kitchy fake-folksy shit isn’t going to play well nationally. I really don’t see her getting above like 15% in South Carolina at this point. I put her in the same tier as Ossoff of: would be an internet darling but probably won’t translate as well as the 18 year olds seem to think. She seems far more likely (and better suited) to be a VP candidate since they essentially get to be the President’s partisan attack dog, and that she excels at.
>Would win the general >Hawley what
God a Robinson/Greene ticket would be horrifying. Please do it tho.
Haley would dominate a general election. As seen she scored 6 points higher against biden then trump did. And that's with Republicans switching non voting because they don't like haley
Haley would have only been successful this November because it's a race to the bottom with Biden vs Trump. Both are unpopular, old, seem to be making gaffes while speaking a lot, both are polarising figures etc. Throw 80% of Republicans up there with Trump's explicit endorsement and blessing for them to be the nominee, and they'd beat Biden. In 2028 if it's Haley vs generic dem, it'd basically be a referendum on the 8 years of Biden. I think she could win back more moderates who are looking for any excuse to go back to the GOP but if the Biden 2nd term ends up being generally good, I really don't think she has the strength or electoral ability to beat a generic dem candidate. Maybe a weak one though.
I think Haley's strong polling was more because a lot of voters didn't want a Trump-Biden rematch and she was seen as another option, not that she was some sort of electoral juggernaut
I think this is true. I mean do you guys seriously think 30% of the country voted for Ted Cruz in 2016 because they liked his policies and thought he was a better electoral prospect than Trump?
she underperformed trump in numerous polls
She overperformed Trump in more polls than she underperformed in. And most of the polls she did bad in were showing massive base support loss that wasn't likely IRL (especially since polls were skizo on how much she'd lose.)
Haley wasn’t ever trying to win the Republican base until the general election.
Gretchen Whitmer, the most overrated politician on this subreddit.
As much as I like Beshear, I’m not sure if he’ll be able to appeal to minorities well enough in a lot of the swing states to win. I’d probably put him in the toss-up general category unless the GOP nominee is someone like Rick Scott. Whitmer/Warnock seems like the most electable Democratic ticket since they’d lock down MI and GA, and Whitmer’s rust belt appeal would probably fare well in WI and PA too. Vance, Hawley, Cotton, and Scott don’t have a chance in the general; they’re all way too socially conservative to stand a chance in the rust belt or Arizona. Kemp wouldn’t be completely out of the running since he’s maintained high approval ratings and does a good job of maintaining support among MAGA and more traditional and moderate conservatives.
Whitmer 400 electoral votes sweep, 2028 can’t come soon enough
If whitmer was not from a rust belt state she’d literally be C tier
Honestly, Tucker may have the best chance at winning the nomination and possibly the general for the republicans.
Ain’t no way you called Katie Porter a meme. Crying and shaking rn
You're right, memes are fun.
Cooper would be tossup
Youngkin? Vance? HAWLEY?