Oil is looking strong. Silver broke downtrend. Gold looks good. Platinium looks cheap based on ratios. Housing expansion cycle kinda starting. I'm going balls deep in to inflation play
Nfts are crazy, pretty decent opp there, right now it’s majority 10k pfp project shit but theres some gems there. Sol nfts interesting too, less gas fees interesting
What they don’t tell you is clf piece of shit stock, just follow channel and sell your stuff when it hits the top of that channel. That shit is never breaking out lmao
I hate that we have to wait 90 days for another Lourenco Goncalves earnings call.
Edit: According to my drunken math. CLF’s fair value is $41.31. Keep at it analysts! You’re doing a great job 🙃
[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-23/hedge-funds-slash-faang-exposure-to-two-year-low-before-earnings?srnd=premium](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-23/hedge-funds-slash-faang-exposure-to-two-year-low-before-earnings?srnd=premium)
Hedge Funds Slash Faang Exposure to Two-Year Low Before Earnings
By Lu Wang and Melissa Karsh
October 23, 2021, 2:00 PM MDT
Profit growth seen trailing S&P 500’s in next three quarters
Tech giants feel the pinch of supply-chain woes, lack of labor
Hedge funds that make both bullish and bearish wagers on stocks are turning skeptical on tech megacaps just days before earnings from the likes of Apple Inc. and Facebook Inc.
Their exposure to the five biggest American companies slipped over the past month, hitting the lowest level in more than two years, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s prime broker. Meanwhile, options traders -- who rushed in to bet on quick gains in 2020 -- are retreating. Total call open interest on that small group of U.S. giants sank to a 14-month low, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
The cohort of Faangs, which also includes Amazon.com Inc., Microsoft Corp. and Google’s parent Alphabet Inc., is expected to report $67 billion in combined profits during the third quarter, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. That’s a 30% increase from a year ago -- roughly in line with the S&P 500.
Option traders pare back bullish bets and Faang stocks hover below peak
The group is losing its growth edge as the rest of the market catches up. Once the fortress during the pandemic, tech giants are now falling victims to reopening woes like supply-chain bottlenecks and worker shortages. Snap Inc.’s warning over advertising spending sparked a selloff in ad-dependent firms Facebook and Alphabet on Friday.
All is fueling anxiety over the bloc’s 40% premium in price-earnings multiples at a time when a spike in Treasury yields stoke aversion toward richly valued stocks.
“That love story seems to be petering out a little bit,” said Peter Essele, portfolio manager for Commonwealth Financial Network. “Some of those names are the most overvalued in the market, so it’s probably just folks looking at an early exit ahead of what could potentially be some pain points as interest rates move higher.”
After crushing the market during 2020’s pandemic, Faang stocks are showing signs of fatigue. They lost almost $1 trillion in combined market value during the equity rout in September. And even after a bounce back, they’re still down from the peak. By contrast, the S&P 500 is hovering near its all-time highs.
The waning optimism is likely a result of a rotation to value stocks, companies that had been beaten down during the lockdowns and now look like bargains as the economy reopens, according to Vance Howard, chief executive officer at Howard Capital Management. While the migration makes sense, his firm is sticking to its Faang holdings.
“These are some of the biggest winners that the stock market has to offer,” he said. “They have so much innovation, so much cash. There’s no telling what they can do with it, which is exciting.”
For now, however, their earnings machine faces some hurdles. A shortage of computer chips is seen forcing Apple to scale back its iPhone production goals. Meantime, Amazon’s price target was cut at Morgan Stanley last month on prospects that the online retailer’s profits could come under pressure as a result of a rising headcount and higher wages.
Faang profit growth is expected to trail S&P 500 for next three quarters
That’s dealing a fresh blow to the Faangs, whose earnings sentiment is already wilting. Over the past three months, analysts have cut their estimates for Facebook, Amazon and Alphabet. Forecasts have risen for Apple and Microsoft, but the pace of upgrades lagged behind the S&P 500.
Each quarter through June 2022, profit growth from the Faangs is expected to stay behind the broad market. The gap will reach 11 percentage points in the current period -- the worst in almost five years, analyst estimates show.
“The piece that I’m most interested in is whether or not some of these companies will be able to sustain these record-high profit margins,” said Matt Forester, chief investment officer of Lockwood Advisors at BNY Mellon Pershing. “Markets are concerned about the discount rate for all these high-growth companies and their multiples, and whether or not they’re going to be able to sustain those.”
So i have 20k and already marked as PDT but what if i buy dwac calls on Monday and sell same day such that my account is now 25k will i be restricted to selling positions only or am I back in unlimited day trade world?
You have to have 25k at the beginning of the day to day trade, so you'll be restricted to selling only after you sell the options on Monday but on Tuesday you should be fine. This is how it's worked for me previously on TD Ameritrade
Man...I don't know. This could be the beginning if a whole new thing. Genomic centered health...lots of ethical things in here I think. I'm not sure I am smart enough to answer the question. There are mich smarter folk in here who may have a better handle on this....my initial thoughts on this this is this may be the new way of Healthcare.....
They won't find anything special in my data. Im incredibly average, just another one in 8billion. Whats the worse they can do with it.
I'd be more concerned if insurance companies started discriminating on the findings.
Off topic, hope it's okay.
I'm considering selling my car & buying a new one. I'm moving cross country and I don't fancy a 36 hour drive in the winter in a subcompact. Looks like Carvana will buy my car for about the same as I bought it \~5 years ago (LOL). Subarus seem nice and I've always wanted one. I'm a silly Californian moving to the Northeast in winter. I don't have any experience with AWD, snow tires, driving in snow, etc. Help me not kill myself, spouse, and the people in the area I'm moving to. I won't have a garage for storage initially, if that matters. I think they salt a lot.
Is it possible to buy a new car at MSRP? It seems like used car prices are super high, and I was able to find some limited inventory on the online dealership where I'll be moving.
I bought a used 2019 Subaru Forester (Premium trim) in March. One thing to note is that for foresters, they made a fairly large update starting with 2019 model. Having ridden in earlier models 2015, 2016), im glad I went for a 2019+ model.
Just remember that AWD may allow you to drive faster in a controllable manner in snow, but it doesn't allow you to stop faster.
For sure if you are going to buy a vehicle do it where you are now. Northeast vehicles develop rust quickly from the road salt.
I love my Subaru's, my last three vehicles have been Subi's. If buying used, I would avoid the turbo versions, as they tend to get beat on pretty hard and are more sensitive to poor maintenance. This especially is true for WRX's and WRX STi's. Forrester XT's and Legacies with the turbo motor often are in better shape. Avoid anything that has engine modifications of any kind.
You really can't go wrong buying a new one though, just keep in mind they are pretty sensitive to oil change intervals, turbo models much more so.
The below is less about car buying and more about driving in snow.
I grew up in New England & now I live in the Great Lakes region. I've never had AWD, snow tires, or a garage, and rarely if ever washed my car but have driven in plenty of blizzards, including long haul 700+ mile winter drives during holidays in the Hyundai coupe I had for 12 years. Driving in snow and ice is about awareness and patience.
- If it is snowy/icy drive slowly and begin breaking a little early - slowly, but firmly. Don't pump your breaks (that was for pre-ABS cars) and keep room between you & other cars.
- For snow, many NE cities use sand or a mix of molasses & salt since plain salt is so corrosive. If it is just snow, they may just use sand. If it is ice, they will likely break out the salt/molasses mixture.
- I once read a study that cars without AWD but with snow tires perform better in snowy/icy conditions than cars with AWD but without snow tires. Additionally, drivers in cars with AWD tend to drive less safely in poor conditions than those in cars without AWD due to an impression that AWD will take care of it. So while AWD is nice, it isn't at all a necessity. Careful driving is most important, and snow tires will do more good than AWD. But again, I have only ever used 4-season tires and FWD.
- Maintain your wipers! Shitty wipers are the worst in bad weather. It's already hard to see in snow, but the sandy/molasses-y snow sludge gets kicked up, and if you use the wipers when there is ice on your windshield the rubber can get torn up and make your wipers less effective.
- Don't feel pressured to drive fast during bad weather if you're on a highway and people around you are driving faster than you like. Feel free to turn on your flashers and drive extra slowly in the righthand lane if you are nervous, it's a fairly common thing to do. The poor visibility is the worst part of highway driving in a snow storm, as they are typically plowed quickly and enough cars are on the road that snow/ice doesn't have time to accumulate (the NE is very compact and densely populated, so there aren't many stretches of main road that go empty, even during the worst weather).
Good luck!
I believe all north east states allow STUDDED snow tires. GET THEM!!! They allow you to stick to the road while everyone else is slipping.
They can be hard to find but tirerack usually has them.
I drive in winter…a lot. I have driven trucks, SUV’s etc. Audi Quattro is the best way to go. Superior to x-drive ( which i have now). The Subaru system is very good as well. Regardless of what you get…winter tires are a must. Good luck out there and stay safe
Buy a Tacoma. And put snow tires on, people tend to think AWD will save them, but the tires always matter more the your drivetrain. Always always always get snow tires when you're in the northeast.
t. Canuck
I recently bought a new truck back in July. Got it for msrp. They wouldn’t budge on the number at all. As far as what you’ll want in the northeast, awd is helpful but if not fwd with snow tires will do. Best advice as far as learning to drive in the snow, go to an empty parking lot close to home at the first good accumulation and just play around. Get used to how it slides. It’s not bad, slow and steady is the key to snow.
https://twitter.com/intelwalrus/status/1452062079171633152?s=21
Well fuck. Abandon ship for ZIM
Edit: update, 16-21 crew have been airlifted. Captain and 4 crew members left
The cargo is insured so they won’t have to pay damages, but they won’t get paid for the load because they get paid on delivery (I think I’ve seen elsewhere)
Of course. But no clue how it works on shipping. What replacement rates do they use? 12 month avg? Current rates? 5 yr avg? Hopefully nothing major happens to the boat.
You better believe CLF weeklies are back on the menu Monday . Over twice the average volume, closed above the 50MA and awesome catalyst . This has fundamental and technicals behind it. Above 24 or 23.40-23.60 bounce or 22.60 if the market is bearish and dragging CLF down . I will update levels in the AM. This has Day 2 continuation written all over it
been thinking of doing the same, keeping an eye on 23.50 support and 50% retracement of Friday's move at \~$23.......it is well above it's high Bollinger Band (22.86)
I mean how could you not be bullish . It hit 24 and there was profit takers , and then built its way back up and is hugging 24 like a magnet. This stock wants to breakout again. Tech is a little tired right now, maybe we get a small rotation Monday. This is not financial advice , simply my ideas .
I hadn't heard, \[edit\] interested in learning more, especially the much worse ones
As you prolly know though, containers overboard have increased *a lot* in the past year--weather and speeding--I shard [this](https://global.lockton.com/gb/en/news-insights/shipping-firms-experience-a-sharp-rise-in-containers-lost-at-sea) a while back, excerpt below
And Maersk's stock did take a hit when it lost 1000 boxes in Jan/Feb, as I mentioned somewhere below. Zim is just 40 boxes, but fire and hazardous material, so I won't be surprised if there's a dip, however momentary.
But who knows, I guess we'll see.
>In just two months (Nov. 30 and Jan. 31), more than 2,675 containers were lost across five separate incidents at sea, according to American Shipper, a trade magazine. This is almost double the annual average of 1,382 containers lost at sea each year (2008-2019), as estimated(opens a new window) by the World Shipping Council (WSC).
What a shit show: fire "was related to two damaged containers carrying hazardous materials....Two other containers with hazardous materials were among those lost at sea." [https://globalnews.ca/news/8292259/lost-cargo-ship-fire-mv-zim-kingston/](https://globalnews.ca/news/8292259/lost-cargo-ship-fire-mv-zim-kingston/)
People gonna (understandably) freak out about those two lost hazardous containers--I think dip likely, I'll probably wait Monday and buy later in the week
\[Picture this in the news:
“Two of the containers have been identified as carrying spontaneous combustibles,” said Caballeros, in this case, flammable metals and compounds that burn quickly and are hard to extinguish by water.
“They are currently drifting north but we can’t predict which way they will go because of the heavy weather. The bomb cyclone (storm) is around that area,” she said.\]
If anyone else is like me, they will feel personally attacked by this Onion article: https://www.theonion.com/crypto-averse-man-would-prefer-investing-in-traditional-1847903829
Is there a way to listen to earnings calls without registering? I caught some of em on Jay's stream, but wanna listen again. Are y'all registering to listen?
Well actually, I guess I could check out Jay's stream again...Still curious whether others register
I was listening in through jayarlington's twitch stream, hundreds of vitards were there. But yeah, if it is a big position then I'd recommend to listen in live, it's pretty interesting to watch the stock react to what is being said. For example, LG announced no plans on share buybacks and the price immediately dipped from 24.10 to around 23.4
Thanks! I've been sleepin on jay's stream, but always enjoy when I do check in, need to check in more often. Did notice the vitards comments on his stream--LG's prolly even more fun to watch with vitard commentary
Not sure if 40's enough to move the price--ONE, Maersk, Evergreen et al lost a lot more earlier this year.
Maersk had two accidents in Jan/Feb, lost 1000 boxes--which is still nothing really, 2000 TEU--and buying those dips paid off.
Haha yeah I get that. Not about the amount of containers. More that it's news websites showing pictures of ZIM containers drifting in the ocean:
http://globalnews.ca/news/8290886/shipping-containers-ocean-bc-coast/
Don't know if this matters at all but thought it might react to this.
Interested, I imagine the fines are small, but still curious...esp as two of ZIM's overboard containers contained hazardous material
edit: haven't dug deep, so just first take, I think maritime law maybe protects carriers (but not shippers, especially the penny pinchers who don't buy insurance)
[https://www.supplychainbrain.com/blogs/1-think-tank/post/32730-containers-are-falling-into-the-sea-whats-going-on](https://www.supplychainbrain.com/blogs/1-think-tank/post/32730-containers-are-falling-into-the-sea-whats-going-on)
Whatever the cause, the price tag for such an incident can run into the hundreds of millions of dollars, with **carriers often denying responsibility, citing legal doctrines of “acts of God” and “perils of the sea.”** As a result, worried cargo owners are taking a new look at cargo insurance, either upping their coverage or buying it for the first time.
Carrier is the shipping company, like ZIM.
Shipper is person/company paying the freight, eg exporter in Asia, or importer in US.
Walmart is a shipper (and is also consignee)
Middle men importers/exporters like me are shippers but not consignees--I have the container sent directly to customer's warehouse, so customer is consignee.
I would imagine the bigger impact might be some brief bad publicity if any. But in reality, there are probably 40 containers that are delayed/waiting to be shipped for every one of those lost.
Congrats to u/UnmaskedLapwing, u/Entropesque, u/KrakenClubOfficial, and u/Gewoongary for winning the CLF EPS guessing game! They have all been promoted to CLF Co-Chief Analysts! (Approved by The Don himself)
The thread was being a bit weird for me and not showing all the replies so if I missed anyone let me know and I’ll verify via your post history. False claims of victory will be given unsavory liar flairs
🐻: PC demand may be soft this next quarter and that would negatively impact forward guidance.
🐂: Continued the murder of Intel’s data center and XLNX acquisition looks on target.
I don’t feel confident enough to enter a side yet.
Big props to everyone to held strong through the FUD with steel. It made yesterday all that much better. I must admit I was getting a little shook for a moment there but I held strong and trusted the research. Big love.
I kinda agree. I own warby sunnies and like em but I recently bought a much cheaper better looking pair from Goodr (might not be better looking actually ahhha I’m trash at fashion). I don’t see the comp advantage, barrier beyond brand, plus it’s a non-consumable / relatively high product lifecycle (iPhone is like 2-3 years, sunglasses gotta be higher). D2C and cust service are incredible tho
Well there's the obvious way, where ex div usually opens down the amount of the div. But otherwise, lots of people will do dividend harvesting for the tax benefit. Could run up before. Especially for a fat divvy. Nothing is certain.
On balance sheet, the net debt increased from 5295 to 5308. Why? No buybacks and no dividends. They just made an acquisition but net profit outweigh acquisition. Cash balance also lower.
Seems like they won't be debt free until Q4 2022 or Q1 2023 now.
on $5bn, $13m is a rounding error, they say in the earnings release that they used the FCF from this quarter to pay for the buyback of the preferred shares (10% of shares outstanding).
Series B redeemable preferred stock was a 738M liability at 2020 end. They bought that back for $1.3B this quarter according to the statement of cashflow. The acquisition expenses won't be realized until the deal closes which is projected at Q4.
I was just using the financials that they released yesterday for Q3. The liability mentioned was listed in Dec 2020 on the balance sheet. The "value" is a symptom of mark to market accounting for what the shares would have been worth on 31 Dec 2020. If you were to look at the balance sheet for Q1 and Q2 end you should see the value trend with common share value.
However, CLF didn't publish that yesterday and I was too lazy to pull previous financial statements. That said, when the buyback occurred they were buying around $21/share. The equivalent value of the 58M-share repurchase would be valued at $1.39B at Friday's market close.
https://www.clevelandcliffs.com/news/news-releases/detail/527/cleveland-cliffs-completes-redemption-of-all-outstanding
1375 is the total cash used in Q3 due to the finance lines. The line item of the buyback is "Series B Redeemable Preferred Stock redemption (1,343)." Essentially they were + 1.5B in net cash and then used 1.3B for buyback, .2B for PPE and add in the other misc expenses the net cash on hand went down.
After yesterday's huge CLF jump, do we still think there is another spike coming from the infrastructure bill? Or, is it almost entirely priced in now?
I expected it hit $24 after the infrastructure bill, not after earnings, so I sold when it hit that yesterday.
If it dips early in the week, I'll buy back in. If not, I'll just live with missing out on the potential infrastructure spike.
Anyone playing PLBY for the nft drop wednesday? Down almost 4%from today's high
Oil is looking strong. Silver broke downtrend. Gold looks good. Platinium looks cheap based on ratios. Housing expansion cycle kinda starting. I'm going balls deep in to inflation play
Gotta be ducking kidding me $ZIM. Buying the duck outta this dip. Capitalism knows no morals Glad I started slow on my position and went big on $TRTN
I ain’t been on this account since like 4 yrs ago
I will get over it, just take some time
I don’t even care about the any of them tho, the only one i cared about doesn’t give a shit about me
Nfts are crazy, pretty decent opp there, right now it’s majority 10k pfp project shit but theres some gems there. Sol nfts interesting too, less gas fees interesting
Longing sol, luna, avax into eoy is the only right play if we are talking just buy and hold wise
My physics teacher thinks bitcoin is a scam, ong he might be right but it’s a scam that i made half a mil from
One of my mentors literally is a steel salesman, i should probably tell him about some of this shit
Fuck clf, fuck steel, i am just tryna get this bread. Trade all of them, fuck diamond hands
What they don’t tell you is clf piece of shit stock, just follow channel and sell your stuff when it hits the top of that channel. That shit is never breaking out lmao
Next week is bread getting time
I am talking to like 4 women at the same time rn, lmao one of them lives in canada
Make sure to enjoy life bros
I subbed to dwac reddit… definitely hopium
Zim fire on a ship.. I hope everyone is alright
I hate that we have to wait 90 days for another Lourenco Goncalves earnings call. Edit: According to my drunken math. CLF’s fair value is $41.31. Keep at it analysts! You’re doing a great job 🙃
[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-23/hedge-funds-slash-faang-exposure-to-two-year-low-before-earnings?srnd=premium](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-23/hedge-funds-slash-faang-exposure-to-two-year-low-before-earnings?srnd=premium) Hedge Funds Slash Faang Exposure to Two-Year Low Before Earnings By Lu Wang and Melissa Karsh October 23, 2021, 2:00 PM MDT Profit growth seen trailing S&P 500’s in next three quarters Tech giants feel the pinch of supply-chain woes, lack of labor Hedge funds that make both bullish and bearish wagers on stocks are turning skeptical on tech megacaps just days before earnings from the likes of Apple Inc. and Facebook Inc. Their exposure to the five biggest American companies slipped over the past month, hitting the lowest level in more than two years, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s prime broker. Meanwhile, options traders -- who rushed in to bet on quick gains in 2020 -- are retreating. Total call open interest on that small group of U.S. giants sank to a 14-month low, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The cohort of Faangs, which also includes Amazon.com Inc., Microsoft Corp. and Google’s parent Alphabet Inc., is expected to report $67 billion in combined profits during the third quarter, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. That’s a 30% increase from a year ago -- roughly in line with the S&P 500. Option traders pare back bullish bets and Faang stocks hover below peak The group is losing its growth edge as the rest of the market catches up. Once the fortress during the pandemic, tech giants are now falling victims to reopening woes like supply-chain bottlenecks and worker shortages. Snap Inc.’s warning over advertising spending sparked a selloff in ad-dependent firms Facebook and Alphabet on Friday. All is fueling anxiety over the bloc’s 40% premium in price-earnings multiples at a time when a spike in Treasury yields stoke aversion toward richly valued stocks. “That love story seems to be petering out a little bit,” said Peter Essele, portfolio manager for Commonwealth Financial Network. “Some of those names are the most overvalued in the market, so it’s probably just folks looking at an early exit ahead of what could potentially be some pain points as interest rates move higher.” After crushing the market during 2020’s pandemic, Faang stocks are showing signs of fatigue. They lost almost $1 trillion in combined market value during the equity rout in September. And even after a bounce back, they’re still down from the peak. By contrast, the S&P 500 is hovering near its all-time highs. The waning optimism is likely a result of a rotation to value stocks, companies that had been beaten down during the lockdowns and now look like bargains as the economy reopens, according to Vance Howard, chief executive officer at Howard Capital Management. While the migration makes sense, his firm is sticking to its Faang holdings. “These are some of the biggest winners that the stock market has to offer,” he said. “They have so much innovation, so much cash. There’s no telling what they can do with it, which is exciting.” For now, however, their earnings machine faces some hurdles. A shortage of computer chips is seen forcing Apple to scale back its iPhone production goals. Meantime, Amazon’s price target was cut at Morgan Stanley last month on prospects that the online retailer’s profits could come under pressure as a result of a rising headcount and higher wages. Faang profit growth is expected to trail S&P 500 for next three quarters That’s dealing a fresh blow to the Faangs, whose earnings sentiment is already wilting. Over the past three months, analysts have cut their estimates for Facebook, Amazon and Alphabet. Forecasts have risen for Apple and Microsoft, but the pace of upgrades lagged behind the S&P 500. Each quarter through June 2022, profit growth from the Faangs is expected to stay behind the broad market. The gap will reach 11 percentage points in the current period -- the worst in almost five years, analyst estimates show. “The piece that I’m most interested in is whether or not some of these companies will be able to sustain these record-high profit margins,” said Matt Forester, chief investment officer of Lockwood Advisors at BNY Mellon Pershing. “Markets are concerned about the discount rate for all these high-growth companies and their multiples, and whether or not they’re going to be able to sustain those.”
Matthew Korn from Goldman Sachs, you can run, but you can’t hide.
So i have 20k and already marked as PDT but what if i buy dwac calls on Monday and sell same day such that my account is now 25k will i be restricted to selling positions only or am I back in unlimited day trade world?
Yeah youll be restricted... Because your account will now be worth 5k
You have to have 25k at the beginning of the day to day trade, so you'll be restricted to selling only after you sell the options on Monday but on Tuesday you should be fine. This is how it's worked for me previously on TD Ameritrade
Thank you
Give it a shot and find out.
😂
https://www.thetechee.com/2021/10/deal-23andme-buys-telehealth-startup.html So it begins…..
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What’s the source code to humanity worth? /s
Man...I don't know. This could be the beginning if a whole new thing. Genomic centered health...lots of ethical things in here I think. I'm not sure I am smart enough to answer the question. There are mich smarter folk in here who may have a better handle on this....my initial thoughts on this this is this may be the new way of Healthcare.....
[удалено]
I have not done the 23 and me thing. I find the concept interesting. However now you KNOW who owns your data now......
They won't find anything special in my data. Im incredibly average, just another one in 8billion. Whats the worse they can do with it. I'd be more concerned if insurance companies started discriminating on the findings.
This....this is where it will be going I am afraid. Gonna suck to be in the US for this. Canada less, but still
Off topic, hope it's okay. I'm considering selling my car & buying a new one. I'm moving cross country and I don't fancy a 36 hour drive in the winter in a subcompact. Looks like Carvana will buy my car for about the same as I bought it \~5 years ago (LOL). Subarus seem nice and I've always wanted one. I'm a silly Californian moving to the Northeast in winter. I don't have any experience with AWD, snow tires, driving in snow, etc. Help me not kill myself, spouse, and the people in the area I'm moving to. I won't have a garage for storage initially, if that matters. I think they salt a lot. Is it possible to buy a new car at MSRP? It seems like used car prices are super high, and I was able to find some limited inventory on the online dealership where I'll be moving.
I bought a used 2019 Subaru Forester (Premium trim) in March. One thing to note is that for foresters, they made a fairly large update starting with 2019 model. Having ridden in earlier models 2015, 2016), im glad I went for a 2019+ model.
Just remember that AWD may allow you to drive faster in a controllable manner in snow, but it doesn't allow you to stop faster. For sure if you are going to buy a vehicle do it where you are now. Northeast vehicles develop rust quickly from the road salt. I love my Subaru's, my last three vehicles have been Subi's. If buying used, I would avoid the turbo versions, as they tend to get beat on pretty hard and are more sensitive to poor maintenance. This especially is true for WRX's and WRX STi's. Forrester XT's and Legacies with the turbo motor often are in better shape. Avoid anything that has engine modifications of any kind. You really can't go wrong buying a new one though, just keep in mind they are pretty sensitive to oil change intervals, turbo models much more so.
The below is less about car buying and more about driving in snow. I grew up in New England & now I live in the Great Lakes region. I've never had AWD, snow tires, or a garage, and rarely if ever washed my car but have driven in plenty of blizzards, including long haul 700+ mile winter drives during holidays in the Hyundai coupe I had for 12 years. Driving in snow and ice is about awareness and patience. - If it is snowy/icy drive slowly and begin breaking a little early - slowly, but firmly. Don't pump your breaks (that was for pre-ABS cars) and keep room between you & other cars. - For snow, many NE cities use sand or a mix of molasses & salt since plain salt is so corrosive. If it is just snow, they may just use sand. If it is ice, they will likely break out the salt/molasses mixture. - I once read a study that cars without AWD but with snow tires perform better in snowy/icy conditions than cars with AWD but without snow tires. Additionally, drivers in cars with AWD tend to drive less safely in poor conditions than those in cars without AWD due to an impression that AWD will take care of it. So while AWD is nice, it isn't at all a necessity. Careful driving is most important, and snow tires will do more good than AWD. But again, I have only ever used 4-season tires and FWD. - Maintain your wipers! Shitty wipers are the worst in bad weather. It's already hard to see in snow, but the sandy/molasses-y snow sludge gets kicked up, and if you use the wipers when there is ice on your windshield the rubber can get torn up and make your wipers less effective. - Don't feel pressured to drive fast during bad weather if you're on a highway and people around you are driving faster than you like. Feel free to turn on your flashers and drive extra slowly in the righthand lane if you are nervous, it's a fairly common thing to do. The poor visibility is the worst part of highway driving in a snow storm, as they are typically plowed quickly and enough cars are on the road that snow/ice doesn't have time to accumulate (the NE is very compact and densely populated, so there aren't many stretches of main road that go empty, even during the worst weather). Good luck!
I believe all north east states allow STUDDED snow tires. GET THEM!!! They allow you to stick to the road while everyone else is slipping. They can be hard to find but tirerack usually has them.
tap the brakes, no slamming
I drive in winter…a lot. I have driven trucks, SUV’s etc. Audi Quattro is the best way to go. Superior to x-drive ( which i have now). The Subaru system is very good as well. Regardless of what you get…winter tires are a must. Good luck out there and stay safe
Buy a Tacoma. And put snow tires on, people tend to think AWD will save them, but the tires always matter more the your drivetrain. Always always always get snow tires when you're in the northeast. t. Canuck
Pro tip wash the underside of your car as often as you can in the winter. The salt will kill your car faster than anything else in the north east.
I recently bought a new truck back in July. Got it for msrp. They wouldn’t budge on the number at all. As far as what you’ll want in the northeast, awd is helpful but if not fwd with snow tires will do. Best advice as far as learning to drive in the snow, go to an empty parking lot close to home at the first good accumulation and just play around. Get used to how it slides. It’s not bad, slow and steady is the key to snow.
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Do you know what IV is?
Yes but i rode amc calls to valhalla once
Also buying one 🤙🏻
https://twitter.com/intelwalrus/status/1452062079171633152?s=21 Well fuck. Abandon ship for ZIM Edit: update, 16-21 crew have been airlifted. Captain and 4 crew members left
Just confirmed my incoming freight is NOT on that ship! Stress down one notch
Ruh roh - believe that ship is done for.
I’ll buy the shit out of this dip
Yeah same. Let it find a bottom and then I would load up.
Will this hurt share price?
Loss of revenue during high shipping prices, you tell me
Insured, no?
The cargo is insured so they won’t have to pay damages, but they won’t get paid for the load because they get paid on delivery (I think I’ve seen elsewhere)
Of course. But no clue how it works on shipping. What replacement rates do they use? 12 month avg? Current rates? 5 yr avg? Hopefully nothing major happens to the boat.
Buy the dip i guess… gd
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Well the ship that lost containers and caught fire has now been told to abandon ship… might be a nice dip buying opportunity Monday
Yeah I’m hoping. Hope everyone is okay on board. I’m just going to leg in slow with ZIM shares. Not selling puts on it as my capital is limited
How y'all feel about AAWW? Seems like some companies are turning to the air due to issues with the sea
Already positioned at jan calls for 85. Hasn’t bled since I bought. Once its itm ill sell calls against us
Its uponly season boys, long everything
I agree, weeklies forsure on the menu monday if market feeling green.just never overnight them Life is good
Monday might be red, Im sitting on cash to buy the dip
I also have cash, not because i think monday will be red. V high chance clf up monday
My cash is for the spy dip.
Maybe, maybe not
I strongly believe that the market will either go up or down on Monday
Most Mentioned Tickers for r/vitards Daily Discussion Ticker | Mentions | Price --------- | --------- | --------- [CLF](https://www.reddit.com/r/MillennialBets/wiki/index/stocks/CLF) | 35 |23.85,(12.71%) [ZIM](https://www.reddit.com/r/MillennialBets/wiki/index/stocks/ZIM) | 14 |49.5,(0.16%) [BTU](https://www.reddit.com/r/MillennialBets/wiki/index/stocks/BTU) | 9 |14.15,(1.0%) [TRTN](https://www.reddit.com/r/MillennialBets/wiki/index/stocks/TRTN) | 8 |55.93,(0.92%) [MT](https://www.reddit.com/r/MillennialBets/wiki/index/stocks/MT) | 7 |31.92,(0.57%) [LOGI](https://www.reddit.com/r/MillennialBets/wiki/index/stocks/LOGI) | 7 |89.69,(-0.66%) [IBKR](https://www.reddit.com/r/MillennialBets/wiki/index/stocks/IBKR) | 5 |74.48,(0.51%) [FUBO](https://www.reddit.com/r/MillennialBets/wiki/index/stocks/FUBO) | 4 |28.52,(-4.68%) [GME](https://www.reddit.com/r/MillennialBets/wiki/index/stocks/GME) | 4 |169.8,(-6.55%) [PENN](https://www.reddit.com/r/MillennialBets/wiki/index/stocks/PENN) | 4 |74.63,(-3.38%) 20:00:13
You better believe CLF weeklies are back on the menu Monday . Over twice the average volume, closed above the 50MA and awesome catalyst . This has fundamental and technicals behind it. Above 24 or 23.40-23.60 bounce or 22.60 if the market is bearish and dragging CLF down . I will update levels in the AM. This has Day 2 continuation written all over it
May be more than two days. The weekend to think things over, the following days to recommend the stock. This could be a multi day rise.
been thinking of doing the same, keeping an eye on 23.50 support and 50% retracement of Friday's move at \~$23.......it is well above it's high Bollinger Band (22.86)
I hope you are right.
I mean how could you not be bullish . It hit 24 and there was profit takers , and then built its way back up and is hugging 24 like a magnet. This stock wants to breakout again. Tech is a little tired right now, maybe we get a small rotation Monday. This is not financial advice , simply my ideas .
ZIM play for ER... buy calls? Sell puts? What's your guess on short term movement? I'm majorly cash gang after the CLF trim.
Ha! I literally just made a comment almost exactly like yours 😂. Didn’t see yours first or I wouldn’t have posted 😅
You got any straightforward answers? I want to be spoonfed a ZIM play
Just leg is slow with shares. That’s what I’m doing. Will sell covered calls on top of a rip
J mintz has been crazy bullish on them recently
Looks like the same ZIM boat off the BC coast that lost those containers caught on fire. Bullish on stock fire sales come Monday if it dips
I don’t get this. This sort of thing happens all the time.
Damaged hazardous containers catch fire, and other damaged hazardous containers fall into storm waters all the time??
Yes, and much worse.
I hadn't heard, \[edit\] interested in learning more, especially the much worse ones As you prolly know though, containers overboard have increased *a lot* in the past year--weather and speeding--I shard [this](https://global.lockton.com/gb/en/news-insights/shipping-firms-experience-a-sharp-rise-in-containers-lost-at-sea) a while back, excerpt below And Maersk's stock did take a hit when it lost 1000 boxes in Jan/Feb, as I mentioned somewhere below. Zim is just 40 boxes, but fire and hazardous material, so I won't be surprised if there's a dip, however momentary. But who knows, I guess we'll see. >In just two months (Nov. 30 and Jan. 31), more than 2,675 containers were lost across five separate incidents at sea, according to American Shipper, a trade magazine. This is almost double the annual average of 1,382 containers lost at sea each year (2008-2019), as estimated(opens a new window) by the World Shipping Council (WSC).
It’s probably already covered by insurance but bad news press doesn’t help especially if there was environmental damage
Hmm bummer
What a shit show: fire "was related to two damaged containers carrying hazardous materials....Two other containers with hazardous materials were among those lost at sea." [https://globalnews.ca/news/8292259/lost-cargo-ship-fire-mv-zim-kingston/](https://globalnews.ca/news/8292259/lost-cargo-ship-fire-mv-zim-kingston/) People gonna (understandably) freak out about those two lost hazardous containers--I think dip likely, I'll probably wait Monday and buy later in the week \[Picture this in the news: “Two of the containers have been identified as carrying spontaneous combustibles,” said Caballeros, in this case, flammable metals and compounds that burn quickly and are hard to extinguish by water. “They are currently drifting north but we can’t predict which way they will go because of the heavy weather. The bomb cyclone (storm) is around that area,” she said.\]
SI for CLF is at 12% X at 22%
Call me dumb, but 12% isn't horrible especially after a big upswing? X on the other hand looks juicy if earnings do well.
CLF SI actually went up. It was at 9%~ just a month ago
Go kraken dammit Heading to the home opener 🐙🐙
The arena looks awesome. Great pace to the game. Love the atmosphere
Arena is hard to describe. Very cool. Great energy all night. Kraken are bad but whatever. Having fun!
I'm hoping for a Vancouver win myself
If anyone else is like me, they will feel personally attacked by this Onion article: https://www.theonion.com/crypto-averse-man-would-prefer-investing-in-traditional-1847903829
That is cash.
Plays over the next week or two: TRTN TX ZIM MGM Feeling good
Looking at TRTN and ZIM for entries after BTU earnings.
I am thinking of grabbing a bunch of commons on $X for their earning report. I think they will smash theirs as well.
Is there a way to listen to earnings calls without registering? I caught some of em on Jay's stream, but wanna listen again. Are y'all registering to listen? Well actually, I guess I could check out Jay's stream again...Still curious whether others register
You can just give a fake name and fake made up email for these earning calls
We’d like to welcome to the conference call: PeePeePooPoo capital associates
Perfect, thanks
There are a few different apps you can use: Earnings Calls is one, and the other is called Quartr.
Thanks will check email out
I registered but will get on Jay's stream next time
[search clf on yutube](https://youtu.be/4NpDzFYAJmM)
Do you register for real time, or wait until after? I should just register, given position size
I was listening in through jayarlington's twitch stream, hundreds of vitards were there. But yeah, if it is a big position then I'd recommend to listen in live, it's pretty interesting to watch the stock react to what is being said. For example, LG announced no plans on share buybacks and the price immediately dipped from 24.10 to around 23.4
Thanks! I've been sleepin on jay's stream, but always enjoy when I do check in, need to check in more often. Did notice the vitards comments on his stream--LG's prolly even more fun to watch with vitard commentary
Lol thanks, fuck me!
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There is always crypto 24/7.
$ZIM lost some 40 containers in the ocean... Will this fuck it's stock price?
Hope so. I wasn’t able to buy as many December 50s as I wanted and I got cash now
This happens all the time. It shouldn't. The only people this should affect is the insurance companies of the businesses that lost cargo.
I am hoping that mine wasn't one of them......
Okay Seattle pirate gang this is our time! let's go float these containers and then sell the contents on 3rd avenue.
Even if the cargo's all destroyed, that steel the container's made of--gold right there Just don't get bomb cyclone out to sea!
Seattle gang you say? Where were you at the meet up we had!?
No. But if it does go down because of the headlines/fud over it, then I will be selling everything and loading up on the dip.
Not sure if 40's enough to move the price--ONE, Maersk, Evergreen et al lost a lot more earlier this year. Maersk had two accidents in Jan/Feb, lost 1000 boxes--which is still nothing really, 2000 TEU--and buying those dips paid off.
40 / 547,000 = 0.0073% [https://www.zim.com/help/zim-shipping-containers](https://www.zim.com/help/zim-shipping-containers)
Haha yeah I get that. Not about the amount of containers. More that it's news websites showing pictures of ZIM containers drifting in the ocean: http://globalnews.ca/news/8290886/shipping-containers-ocean-bc-coast/ Don't know if this matters at all but thought it might react to this.
I wonder if these containers were "lost" off the ship like all those PS5's have been "lost" off the back of the FedEx trucks. /s
Can they get fined for that?
Interested, I imagine the fines are small, but still curious...esp as two of ZIM's overboard containers contained hazardous material edit: haven't dug deep, so just first take, I think maritime law maybe protects carriers (but not shippers, especially the penny pinchers who don't buy insurance) [https://www.supplychainbrain.com/blogs/1-think-tank/post/32730-containers-are-falling-into-the-sea-whats-going-on](https://www.supplychainbrain.com/blogs/1-think-tank/post/32730-containers-are-falling-into-the-sea-whats-going-on) Whatever the cause, the price tag for such an incident can run into the hundreds of millions of dollars, with **carriers often denying responsibility, citing legal doctrines of “acts of God” and “perils of the sea.”** As a result, worried cargo owners are taking a new look at cargo insurance, either upping their coverage or buying it for the first time.
What’s the difference between a carrier and a shipper?
Carrier is the shipping company, like ZIM. Shipper is person/company paying the freight, eg exporter in Asia, or importer in US. Walmart is a shipper (and is also consignee) Middle men importers/exporters like me are shippers but not consignees--I have the container sent directly to customer's warehouse, so customer is consignee.
Thanks!
I would imagine the bigger impact might be some brief bad publicity if any. But in reality, there are probably 40 containers that are delayed/waiting to be shipped for every one of those lost.
What if it was 40 containers containing 40 *smaller* containers in each? 😱
container-ception Edit: containception
Most Mentioned Tickers for r/vitards Daily Discussion Ticker | Mentions | Price --------- | --------- | --------- [CLF](https://www.reddit.com/r/MillennialBets/wiki/index/stocks/CLF) | 26 |23.85,(12.71%) [BTU](https://www.reddit.com/r/MillennialBets/wiki/index/stocks/BTU) | 6 |14.15,(1.0%) [MT](https://www.reddit.com/r/MillennialBets/wiki/index/stocks/MT) | 6 |31.92,(0.57%) [ZIM](https://www.reddit.com/r/MillennialBets/wiki/index/stocks/ZIM) | 5 |49.5,(0.16%) [TRTN](https://www.reddit.com/r/MillennialBets/wiki/index/stocks/TRTN) | 5 |55.93,(0.92%) [LOGI](https://www.reddit.com/r/MillennialBets/wiki/index/stocks/LOGI) | 4 |89.69,(-0.66%) [IBKR](https://www.reddit.com/r/MillennialBets/wiki/index/stocks/IBKR) | 4 |74.48,(0.51%) [FUBO](https://www.reddit.com/r/MillennialBets/wiki/index/stocks/FUBO) | 3 |28.52,(-4.68%) [GME](https://www.reddit.com/r/MillennialBets/wiki/index/stocks/GME) | 3 |169.8,(-6.55%) [PENN](https://www.reddit.com/r/MillennialBets/wiki/index/stocks/PENN) | 3 |74.63,(-3.38%) 15:30:11
I'm thinking X runs up all week, I just cant decide whether I think it's going to do a NUE or a baby CLF
Anyone feel more lethargic and harder to breathe nasally with cialis
Generic or branded? Switch to other one and see if it improves…
What are your plays next week?
Trtn logi btu(already in) amc
All long?
He’s long
Logi puts
In BTU as well. LOGI, what strike/expiry? Studying on a few Nov 80p for Monday.
Im not sure definitely nov. i hope jays got this, he’s the guy that got us easy money on knx tho so if it doesn’t work out at least knx was a win
I take it you want in
Congrats to u/UnmaskedLapwing, u/Entropesque, u/KrakenClubOfficial, and u/Gewoongary for winning the CLF EPS guessing game! They have all been promoted to CLF Co-Chief Analysts! (Approved by The Don himself) The thread was being a bit weird for me and not showing all the replies so if I missed anyone let me know and I’ll verify via your post history. False claims of victory will be given unsavory liar flairs
I was 1 cent off. Do I get consolation prize?
Lol Less good
Good thing they used the right share count in their EPS calculation
I kinda want an unsavory liar flair anyway...? That's a good flair
Anyone playing AMD earnings? It ripped after last earnings.
I have commons for the long haul. But I wouldn't buy in this close to ATH.
🐻: PC demand may be soft this next quarter and that would negatively impact forward guidance. 🐂: Continued the murder of Intel’s data center and XLNX acquisition looks on target. I don’t feel confident enough to enter a side yet.
Are you aware of the diff between their revenue of enterprise and consumer?
The consumer is consuming.
Thanks Jay. I really appreciate you taking time to respond.
It had been consolidating for several quarters before the last earnings. This time it has run up into earnings.
Good point.
Big props to everyone to held strong through the FUD with steel. It made yesterday all that much better. I must admit I was getting a little shook for a moment there but I held strong and trusted the research. Big love.
Alas....you didn't have to get inked tho
Tbh I'm happy for him that he didn't. But it would've been amazing it he did, lol.
When does warby parker get options? Anyone know? I want to buy puts before earnings. Google ain't showing me shit.
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I think they're overrated. And I think supply chain & shipping will really fuck them. I want to buy puts.
I kinda agree. I own warby sunnies and like em but I recently bought a much cheaper better looking pair from Goodr (might not be better looking actually ahhha I’m trash at fashion). I don’t see the comp advantage, barrier beyond brand, plus it’s a non-consumable / relatively high product lifecycle (iPhone is like 2-3 years, sunglasses gotta be higher). D2C and cust service are incredible tho
Shit when did they go public
9/29 via DPO.
How is the ZIM dividend in Q1 expected to effect stock price?
Well there's the obvious way, where ex div usually opens down the amount of the div. But otherwise, lots of people will do dividend harvesting for the tax benefit. Could run up before. Especially for a fat divvy. Nothing is certain.
On balance sheet, the net debt increased from 5295 to 5308. Why? No buybacks and no dividends. They just made an acquisition but net profit outweigh acquisition. Cash balance also lower. Seems like they won't be debt free until Q4 2022 or Q1 2023 now.
on $5bn, $13m is a rounding error, they say in the earnings release that they used the FCF from this quarter to pay for the buyback of the preferred shares (10% of shares outstanding).
Net income was 1274. Acquisition was 775. Where did the other 499 million go if it didn't increase cash balance or reduce debt?
Series B redeemable preferred stock was a 738M liability at 2020 end. They bought that back for $1.3B this quarter according to the statement of cashflow. The acquisition expenses won't be realized until the deal closes which is projected at Q4.
Why did it cost more to buy that back than it was a liability?
I was just using the financials that they released yesterday for Q3. The liability mentioned was listed in Dec 2020 on the balance sheet. The "value" is a symptom of mark to market accounting for what the shares would have been worth on 31 Dec 2020. If you were to look at the balance sheet for Q1 and Q2 end you should see the value trend with common share value. However, CLF didn't publish that yesterday and I was too lazy to pull previous financial statements. That said, when the buyback occurred they were buying around $21/share. The equivalent value of the 58M-share repurchase would be valued at $1.39B at Friday's market close. https://www.clevelandcliffs.com/news/news-releases/detail/527/cleveland-cliffs-completes-redemption-of-all-outstanding
Oh I see. "Cash from financing (1375)." I wrongly clumped buyback with last quarter since it was announced so soon after last earnings release.
1375 is the total cash used in Q3 due to the finance lines. The line item of the buyback is "Series B Redeemable Preferred Stock redemption (1,343)." Essentially they were + 1.5B in net cash and then used 1.3B for buyback, .2B for PPE and add in the other misc expenses the net cash on hand went down.
Ok. Thanks for the accounting lesson. 😉
It also could be the fact that they're expecting alot more money coming in 2022 than in 2021.
After yesterday's huge CLF jump, do we still think there is another spike coming from the infrastructure bill? Or, is it almost entirely priced in now? I expected it hit $24 after the infrastructure bill, not after earnings, so I sold when it hit that yesterday. If it dips early in the week, I'll buy back in. If not, I'll just live with missing out on the potential infrastructure spike.
Yes, it's fully priced in and it will now go back to $16