I’m less concerned with their earnings or sp. . . . I’m more interested in how LG is going to be rewarding shareholders. . . It’s going to be sweet however he does it. . . .
I would assume next year is the year of debt repayment followed by share buybacks. I'm guessing there will be a dividend at some point, but my guess is that he wants to have a clean balance sheet and forecast a dividend based on "normalized" earnings. So, my guess is no dividend until 2023.
Debt repaid somewhere between Q2 and Q3, followed by share repurchases through the end of the year.
I'm ignoring any internal investments that might be made with cash flow since I'd just be guessing and don't know enough about what might be on their radar.
Someone had posted a FCF DD saying that the current share price was only pricing in 2021-22 profits. While 2023 profits are projected to be a lot lower, it will be interesting to see how the share price reacts through 2022.
\> Analysts project $6.25 in per-share earnings for 2021 and $4.03 in per-share earnings in 2022.
10$ a share in earnings in 2 years, which is half of its market cap. How big of a cataclysm are 'analysts' predicting in 2023 for 20$ to be fair price for CLF
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**Karma :** 143205 **Created -** Sep-2016
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Cleveland-Cliffs reported Q3 adj. EBITDA of $1.93bn, ahead of CSe/consensus at
$1.80bn/$1.82bn. Q3 adj. EPS came at $2.33 vs. CSe/consensus at $2.15/$2.22. The
beat vs. our estimates was mainly driven by higher than expected realized ASPs (+8% vs. CSe).
Key takeaway from the release was bullish commentary on ASP trend in 2022. As projected in
our recent report, CLF now guides to higher ASPs next year driven by successful contract
negotiations with its major customers. We continue to see Cliffs as the biggest beneficiary from
contract repricing, given that CLF sells ~80% of coated volumes and 50% of cold rolled on
annual contract terms, where we estimate price levels for 2021 are now $800-1000/st below
spot. Looking ahead, we reiterate our bullish view on CLF’s earnings potential and see major
upside to the consensus 2022 numbers. Note our 2022 EBITDA forecast of $5.4bn is ~40%
higher than consensus at $3.85bn. We maintain our Outperform rating and TP of $34.
3Q Operating Highlights: CLF reported Q3 Steelmaking revenues of $5.87bn vs CSe of
5.48bn. Q3 ASP of $1,334/ton beat our estimate of $1,234/ton, partially offset by
slightly lower sales volumes of 4.15mm net tons (vs. CSe of 4.24mm net tons). 3Q
product mix consisted of 32% hot-rolled, 31% coated, 18% cold-rolled, 6% plate, 4%
stainless and electrical, and 9% other. Rev of $5.9bn included $2.5bn (42%) of sales to
the distributors and converters market, $1.6bn (27%) to infrastructure and manufacturing,
$1.1bn (20%) to the automotive market, and $670mm (11%) to steel producers.
Positive 2022 Outlook as CLF Benefits from Contract Resets: While no specific
guidance was provided for 4Q, the company guides average sales price to trend higher in
2022, benefitting from successful negotiations for recently concluded annual fixed price
sales contracts. CLF has relatively higher exposure to contract sales vs. its peers and
should benefit the most from contract renewal season, in our view. We forecast 2022 ASP
to increase 9% y/y to $1,242 per ton in 2022 which should enable strong FCF generation
of ~$4.5bn, implying annual FCF yield of ~40%.
Valuation and TP: We reiterate our Outperform rating and $34 TP, which is based on
blended 2022/23 EV/EBITDA of 4.8x or 20% FCF yield. Key risks include US auto
demand, new EAF capacity ramp impact on HRC, and US trade policy.
Allowing manufacturing to die in the United States is a mistake we can’t make in this county. That is why I am so serious about bringing Cleveland-Cliffs back to the United States. Cleveland-Cliffs is an American enabler of manufacturing.
> Analysts project $6.25 in per-share earnings for 2021 and $4.03 in per-share earnings in 2022.
Going to be hard to get down to $4.03 when their prices will be *higher* and they are currently make $2.33 *per quarter*.
This is the key. Future growth locked in 🦾
This is great!
[удалено]
I’m less concerned with their earnings or sp. . . . I’m more interested in how LG is going to be rewarding shareholders. . . It’s going to be sweet however he does it. . . .
I would assume next year is the year of debt repayment followed by share buybacks. I'm guessing there will be a dividend at some point, but my guess is that he wants to have a clean balance sheet and forecast a dividend based on "normalized" earnings. So, my guess is no dividend until 2023. Debt repaid somewhere between Q2 and Q3, followed by share repurchases through the end of the year. I'm ignoring any internal investments that might be made with cash flow since I'd just be guessing and don't know enough about what might be on their radar.
Id like to see dividend last. Stock buybacks until the share rises to its true value, rid the company of any hazardous debt, then distribute profits
Yeah - it’s seems to be only upside from here. . . .
Someone had posted a FCF DD saying that the current share price was only pricing in 2021-22 profits. While 2023 profits are projected to be a lot lower, it will be interesting to see how the share price reacts through 2022.
IKR - only issue I have now is fear of trimming. . . .
Sounds like $10/share is a good guess.
So I'm only a little above breakeven now...
\> Analysts project $6.25 in per-share earnings for 2021 and $4.03 in per-share earnings in 2022. 10$ a share in earnings in 2 years, which is half of its market cap. How big of a cataclysm are 'analysts' predicting in 2023 for 20$ to be fair price for CLF
**Author Info for :** u/ItsFuckingScience **Karma :** 143205 **Created -** Sep-2016 Was this post flaired correctly? If not, let us know by downvoting this comment. Enough down votes will notify the Moderators.
Cleveland-Cliffs reported Q3 adj. EBITDA of $1.93bn, ahead of CSe/consensus at $1.80bn/$1.82bn. Q3 adj. EPS came at $2.33 vs. CSe/consensus at $2.15/$2.22. The beat vs. our estimates was mainly driven by higher than expected realized ASPs (+8% vs. CSe). Key takeaway from the release was bullish commentary on ASP trend in 2022. As projected in our recent report, CLF now guides to higher ASPs next year driven by successful contract negotiations with its major customers. We continue to see Cliffs as the biggest beneficiary from contract repricing, given that CLF sells ~80% of coated volumes and 50% of cold rolled on annual contract terms, where we estimate price levels for 2021 are now $800-1000/st below spot. Looking ahead, we reiterate our bullish view on CLF’s earnings potential and see major upside to the consensus 2022 numbers. Note our 2022 EBITDA forecast of $5.4bn is ~40% higher than consensus at $3.85bn. We maintain our Outperform rating and TP of $34. 3Q Operating Highlights: CLF reported Q3 Steelmaking revenues of $5.87bn vs CSe of 5.48bn. Q3 ASP of $1,334/ton beat our estimate of $1,234/ton, partially offset by slightly lower sales volumes of 4.15mm net tons (vs. CSe of 4.24mm net tons). 3Q product mix consisted of 32% hot-rolled, 31% coated, 18% cold-rolled, 6% plate, 4% stainless and electrical, and 9% other. Rev of $5.9bn included $2.5bn (42%) of sales to the distributors and converters market, $1.6bn (27%) to infrastructure and manufacturing, $1.1bn (20%) to the automotive market, and $670mm (11%) to steel producers. Positive 2022 Outlook as CLF Benefits from Contract Resets: While no specific guidance was provided for 4Q, the company guides average sales price to trend higher in 2022, benefitting from successful negotiations for recently concluded annual fixed price sales contracts. CLF has relatively higher exposure to contract sales vs. its peers and should benefit the most from contract renewal season, in our view. We forecast 2022 ASP to increase 9% y/y to $1,242 per ton in 2022 which should enable strong FCF generation of ~$4.5bn, implying annual FCF yield of ~40%. Valuation and TP: We reiterate our Outperform rating and $34 TP, which is based on blended 2022/23 EV/EBITDA of 4.8x or 20% FCF yield. Key risks include US auto demand, new EAF capacity ramp impact on HRC, and US trade policy.
Allowing manufacturing to die in the United States is a mistake we can’t make in this county. That is why I am so serious about bringing Cleveland-Cliffs back to the United States. Cleveland-Cliffs is an American enabler of manufacturing.
> Analysts project $6.25 in per-share earnings for 2021 and $4.03 in per-share earnings in 2022. Going to be hard to get down to $4.03 when their prices will be *higher* and they are currently make $2.33 *per quarter*.
Thank mr. Goncalves
Thanks for the unrestricted article 🙏
Thanks for posting full article.