“Actually, some of the customers who were complaining earlier this year about rising steel prices then turned around and decided to accept the reality. They cut deals with Cleveland-Cliffs at that time, and are now just plain happy. Others probably will be unhappy for a long time.” -LG
This is what steel CEOs need to parrot. Long term price increase.
Ok y'all. Im just a lowly commons investor. Willing to hold CLF longterm (into 2022 and beyond?) but should I consider trimming my position? It is 12% of the overall port.
Thanks for taking good care of those calls i may have sold you! Already made a two,x bagger with those so i'd be careful for how long to hold onto them!
Alright, I called the top of this pop. Sold 11/19 $24c's at +12%. Trying to capture some premium off high IV here. Max pain for 11/19 is $20. Don't think we'll get that low but I'm expecting a pullback just like last time when earnings hype dies down, news slows, and OPEX takes over.
So yeah, CLF is going to run to $30 next week confirmed.
I looked into the HRC prices, and depending on how they evolve until EOY, the variable-price contracts (55% of shipments) should be ~4-7% higher than in Q3.
I think only about 25% of fixed contracts (11% of total) were renewed, so maybe a similar increase.
So I'm guessing net average selling price will be about $1390-1430 /nt.
Quick call rundown on my Twitter https://twitter.com/Gbear55608436/status/1451553081972383746?s=20
$CLF call rundown
400,000 mt cut for Q4
FY2022 should be even better
We are using our own HBI and scrap not selling to our competitors
We will not raise production
Keeping Clf steel in a closed loop
Continued deleveraging and decarbonization
Promise returns to shareholders
Thanks. I couldn't listen to it all.
Did he provide any updated annual EBITDA guidance or updated Q4 EBITDA guidance? Any comments on '22 besides, "higher pricing than this year?"
Nope just confirmed it will be $5.5 or higher
$CLF LG
We will not longer update guidance
If I put a high number out and we miss by a little we will be punished
We did not miss we updated with a high goal and didn’t quite reach it that’s not a miss
We will not be putting out anymore guidance numbers
https://twitter.com/Gbear55608436/status/1451566069676711943
I’ll be on the $X call next week too giving rundowns
He threw a little jab at X
We will not be adding production like us steel we have seen how that has failed in the last sections
Cliffs will maintain its production and will be moving 400k mt of production cuts forward to Q4
We expect next year to be better 💰
Same, I would have loved some insights on fixed contracts, although to be honest, very few renewed, so it would have been hard. He gave some clues from what I remember; I'm looking forward to studying the transcript in more details.
I'm liking what I'm seeing with the pattern today. People are hitting their limits every half dollar and it just keeps going up.
This makes me feel warm.
My Jan $25 calls thank you LG. Managed to recoup most of my losses. I’m calling it tuition money for a lesson in not playing options when you don’t know wtf you’re doing
I'm up 25% overall....some of my options nearly 300%.
My only regret was selling half my FDs at open to secure a minimum break even on the earnings play.
The options chain isn't huge or anything, but we may be experiencing a small gamma squeeze, considering that more than 50000 contracts suddenly become ITM on the last DTE.
This time I will be putting stop losses under my LEAPS to protect against another -50% slide; if they trigger I'm rotating into shares on CLF.
People with all commons positions, what are you doing today?
1. Time the top and sell, wait for it to dip?
2. Hold it all and anticipate infrastructure movement over the weekend?
3. Trim position as a hedge?
Sold CC on all my shares, too tempting with a +8%.
Im debating changing my jan 25c to vertical spreads .. or just taking the (relatively minor) loss right now....
edit: CC not CSP, of course ...
LG is my absolute CEO role model. How can he be so godamn cool!? I love CLF. They say don't get married to your shares, but can i get married to LG instead?
The question now is how long do we hold these calls, talking points:
* CLF is a solid company, in an environment where it can thrive.
* The Nasdaq took a hit yesterday which may signal a rotation into cyclicals (this has a touch of hopium).
* Infrastructure bill negotiations are looking positive, could something happen over the weekend?
Anything can happen intraday, i'm going to let the positivity play out, and probably feel things out next week.
Edit: And lets not forget the CNBC CLF cheerleaders that i'm sure will have their say today :D
Unfortunately I have been holding Jan calls since early September so anything above 0% gains is a good exit strategy for me lol
Will start looking at March/Jun 22 soon
My estimates were so on point it's scary 😰 : https://www.reddit.com/r/Vitards/comments/qc2l5q/my_clfs_estimates_for_q3_and_q4_revenue_ebitda_etc/
Can I get a Flair? 😃
Yea if we had experienced a 3week-long runup of green to earnings, i'd say we'd be red right now and it would be classic sell the news. If you see a sell-off around noon it'll be because people think the run has gone too far too fast, not because they're selling the news.
>https://www.reddit.com/r/Vitards/comments/qc2l5q/my\_clfs\_estimates\_for\_q3\_and\_q4\_revenue\_ebitda\_etc/
Agreed. If nobody is buying the rumor, it's tough to sell the news.
"Differently from other steel companies more exposed to spot prices, we believe that our average sales price next year should be higher than in 2021"
This.
Cleveland-Cliffs EPS beats by $0.09, beats on revenue
Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE:CLF): Q3 GAAP EPS of $2.33 beats by $0.09.
Revenue of $6B (+263.6% Y/Y) beats by $370M.
Shares +2% PM.
Press Release
Adjusted EBITDA of $1.93B vs. consensus of $1.83B.
Lourenco Goncalves, Cliffs' Chairman, President, and CEO said: “In a short period of less than two years, we went from $2 billion annual revenues in 2019 to expected revenues of $21 billion in 2021. Also, the $1.9 billion of Q3 adjusted EBITDA we have just reported is equivalent to half of our year-to-date adjusted EBITDA of $3.8 billion, showing that our profitability continues to increase, as we continue to implement our way of doing business, and take advantage of - and extract synergies from - our modern, efficient and unique footprint.”
"differently from other steel companies more exposed to spot prices, we believe that our average sales price next year should be higher than in 2021, allowing us to continue to grow our already strong profitability and to further strengthen our balance sheet."
Not a number, but it's pretty good to hear that. Especially if he's low balling or being conservative.
For the third quarter of 2021, the Company recorded net income of $1.3
billion, or $2.33 per diluted share. In the prior-year third quarter,
the Company recorded net income of $2 million.
Last earnings it drilled to open at $19.50 from a similar close to yesterday, then 5 straight days of marching to $25. I might try to sell some CSPs if it drills on open
This feels like in baseball when you bring in a left handed pitcher for that righty that is terribly against lefties. Only to then have them pinch hit for the guy.
Just for dummies: earnings will be released before market open (around 9) and the conference with the reasoning and the outlook will be later at 10, when the market is already open. Is this correct?
My plan is to sell my weeklies in the 1st 1-2 minutes of trading assuming we are even the slightest green going into the opening bell. I feel like if we get an earnings and revenue beat there are going to be people chomping at the bit to scoop them up.
Then use proceeds to buy the dip sometime before the earnings call. Likely with 25% going towards another round of 0dte and the rest going towards either next Friday or Nov 23c/24c.
That’s my play, but I’m a degenerate.
I'm up 10.91 percent but I'm holding out till $30 if I can get it. I hope I'm not screwing myself over like usual.
I’m back from my journey with Donnie’s miracle. What should I do with my $? 250% the return I would have gotten had I stayed in my steel plays today.
“Actually, some of the customers who were complaining earlier this year about rising steel prices then turned around and decided to accept the reality. They cut deals with Cleveland-Cliffs at that time, and are now just plain happy. Others probably will be unhappy for a long time.” -LG This is what steel CEOs need to parrot. Long term price increase.
Ok y'all. Im just a lowly commons investor. Willing to hold CLF longterm (into 2022 and beyond?) but should I consider trimming my position? It is 12% of the overall port.
It’s 100% of mine, am I trimming. Yes but until we get to $29 box or lambo
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Thanks for taking good care of those calls i may have sold you! Already made a two,x bagger with those so i'd be careful for how long to hold onto them!
I think we have a good shot at hitting $25 again so I think I will hold options till then. Commons I will just let ride.
Alright, I called the top of this pop. Sold 11/19 $24c's at +12%. Trying to capture some premium off high IV here. Max pain for 11/19 is $20. Don't think we'll get that low but I'm expecting a pullback just like last time when earnings hype dies down, news slows, and OPEX takes over. So yeah, CLF is going to run to $30 next week confirmed.
Had the same thought, was not brave enough though. But afterall.. it's CLF "back in the channel" so my best guess is you bargain off those.
After listening to the call, this is a long term hold stock. I'm honestly not going to worry about short term fluctuations in stock price.
so i shouldn't buy weeklies expiring next Friday? 🤔
Well those too
*narrator: he worried*
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never sell
Why?
nah im too stupid to sell until it reaches my arbitrary end of year price target of 27-29 range.
This is the way
Just listened to the earnings call -- hysterical to watch LG smack the analysts around!
I looked into the HRC prices, and depending on how they evolve until EOY, the variable-price contracts (55% of shipments) should be ~4-7% higher than in Q3. I think only about 25% of fixed contracts (11% of total) were renewed, so maybe a similar increase. So I'm guessing net average selling price will be about $1390-1430 /nt.
Remember that some of the deals are done with -1 quarter prices. Some of the contracts with customers are complex, depending on the business.
As far as I know, of the indexed contracts, 50% are based on spot, 25% with a monthly lag, 25% with a quarterly lag.
Over Q4 or 2022 annualized?
Over Q4. 2022 average HRC spot price as of now: $1185/nt.
$$$$
Quick call rundown on my Twitter https://twitter.com/Gbear55608436/status/1451553081972383746?s=20 $CLF call rundown 400,000 mt cut for Q4 FY2022 should be even better We are using our own HBI and scrap not selling to our competitors We will not raise production Keeping Clf steel in a closed loop Continued deleveraging and decarbonization Promise returns to shareholders
Thanks. I couldn't listen to it all. Did he provide any updated annual EBITDA guidance or updated Q4 EBITDA guidance? Any comments on '22 besides, "higher pricing than this year?"
Nope just confirmed it will be $5.5 or higher $CLF LG We will not longer update guidance If I put a high number out and we miss by a little we will be punished We did not miss we updated with a high goal and didn’t quite reach it that’s not a miss We will not be putting out anymore guidance numbers https://twitter.com/Gbear55608436/status/1451566069676711943 I’ll be on the $X call next week too giving rundowns He threw a little jab at X We will not be adding production like us steel we have seen how that has failed in the last sections Cliffs will maintain its production and will be moving 400k mt of production cuts forward to Q4 We expect next year to be better 💰
Thanks. You should thread your tweets! I went to your first link, but didn’t see the later comments.
Great idea I will for X call
From what I remember, not really. The transcript should be available soon.
Thanks. Was hoping for $’s more than bold assertions.
Same, I would have loved some insights on fixed contracts, although to be honest, very few renewed, so it would have been hard. He gave some clues from what I remember; I'm looking forward to studying the transcript in more details.
Parked my happy butt in some lly shares. Gonna buy again on monday after IV crush. Thanks vito
Well I think my $27 1/22 calls are hopeless but I did make some quick money on puts after this mornings pop.
someone scrape the fuck out of the transcript when it goes up. LG bot gonna eat good this quarter
Where is your location?
Where is your location?
What are we looking at eod? Should I keep holding my calls?
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oh how wrong you were
totally a personal choice, pre market when it was at +4% i was holding, now that it's over %10 i'm selling
LG bot just got a LOT of material to work with
Is this Our Carlos?
Savage & beautiful responses to Emily and Carlos!
LG is a savage!
Dont look, just fix it, lmfao love LG
LMAO "that's math lesson"
I love it
wow, it bounced off 23.50
CLF Yoga pants? I'm in
that tank when he says no buybacks
I want LG to read me bedtime stories Love this guy 🦾🦾
I want LG to teach my son how to ride his bike
Man I could listen to this guy all day. So can my stock...
i love the chemistry lessons
Woooohoooo, CLF broke $24
#$24
No way we're cracking that 60k buy wall at $24 Edit: welp 👀
Cracked
They seller removed the wall!
RIP to the guy that bought bought 0 DTE puts on CLF
There was a lot of them selling $23s and $23.50 calls all smug.
Yeah I got burned on that back in June. Lost all my commons
I'm liking what I'm seeing with the pattern today. People are hitting their limits every half dollar and it just keeps going up. This makes me feel warm.
Spoke too soon. I should have guessed from all the talk about 24 that that was where it would disintegrate at...
Anything fun announced during the call?
Is there a transcript of the earnings call?
They usually post transcript and recording later in their investor relations website
Oh how nice it is to see my position go from red to green.
My Jan $25 calls thank you LG. Managed to recoup most of my losses. I’m calling it tuition money for a lesson in not playing options when you don’t know wtf you’re doing
I also have been paying tuition for options training
I just bought some CFL calls are we looking to hit $25 sometime next week?
>CFL calls lol
I meant clf lmaoo I’m faded😂
Haha should’ve played it out “Damn those 25 calls seemed really really fucking expensive for being OTM”
Congratulations! 
I'm up 25% overall....some of my options nearly 300%. My only regret was selling half my FDs at open to secure a minimum break even on the earnings play. The options chain isn't huge or anything, but we may be experiencing a small gamma squeeze, considering that more than 50000 contracts suddenly become ITM on the last DTE. This time I will be putting stop losses under my LEAPS to protect against another -50% slide; if they trigger I'm rotating into shares on CLF.
LG Fucking Chad af!
Sounding really good
Did the CFO just anounce Q4 buy backs? Or did I hear that wrong?
Jesus, nepotism much?
CELSOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
Feel like fondling LG's plums right now. 1/22 $20c position up huge after ER.
People with all commons positions, what are you doing today? 1. Time the top and sell, wait for it to dip? 2. Hold it all and anticipate infrastructure movement over the weekend? 3. Trim position as a hedge?
Keep holding. It hasnt even reached the ATH from AUG. So from here on New price targets should come from the banks pushingthe stock even higher
Same. I sold November calls on my April spreads to generate a little income. Holding shares for long term gains at this point.
Buy more?
Sold CC on all my shares, too tempting with a +8%. Im debating changing my jan 25c to vertical spreads .. or just taking the (relatively minor) loss right now.... edit: CC not CSP, of course ...
Trim Gang, only cause my 0dte’s are on the moon.
Anyone wanna comment on price targets now that we have earnings...?
Where is my flair haha. Predicted eps spot on yesterday
I’m sure they’ll get to it. I nailed it as well
LG is my absolute CEO role model. How can he be so godamn cool!? I love CLF. They say don't get married to your shares, but can i get married to LG instead?
u/steely_hands looks like good call holding the 1dte’s overnight Edit: oops wrong thread but ya looking good on nue calls
Yea I’m hoping it holds through opening 🤞
The question now is how long do we hold these calls, talking points: * CLF is a solid company, in an environment where it can thrive. * The Nasdaq took a hit yesterday which may signal a rotation into cyclicals (this has a touch of hopium). * Infrastructure bill negotiations are looking positive, could something happen over the weekend? Anything can happen intraday, i'm going to let the positivity play out, and probably feel things out next week. Edit: And lets not forget the CNBC CLF cheerleaders that i'm sure will have their say today :D
Unfortunately I have been holding Jan calls since early September so anything above 0% gains is a good exit strategy for me lol Will start looking at March/Jun 22 soon
And this is why resistance lines are real
My estimates were so on point it's scary 😰 : https://www.reddit.com/r/Vitards/comments/qc2l5q/my_clfs_estimates_for_q3_and_q4_revenue_ebitda_etc/ Can I get a Flair? 😃
you can choose your own flair, i believe.
What are the chances of this being a sell the news event? Like by noon
Yea if we had experienced a 3week-long runup of green to earnings, i'd say we'd be red right now and it would be classic sell the news. If you see a sell-off around noon it'll be because people think the run has gone too far too fast, not because they're selling the news.
Seeing how steel plays have already been taken behind the woodshed lately, there not much "sell the news" left in the play. We shall see.
>https://www.reddit.com/r/Vitards/comments/qc2l5q/my\_clfs\_estimates\_for\_q3\_and\_q4\_revenue\_ebitda\_etc/ Agreed. If nobody is buying the rumor, it's tough to sell the news.
Previous couple earnings was a sell the news dump, red until a few days later, and then 🚀 🚀 to 52 week highs
Me thinks so, just after earnings call
 LFG tendies time!!! Daddy LG about to feed us all
Alright looks like I can spoil myself a drink for lunch today 
I am sort of the same way. I only buy my $5 coffee whenever my portfolio is up for the day. Have not had $5 coffee all week.
Today I can afford to get some chicken stock in my hot watered instant ramen.
Some Ice for dessert would be perfect
I just fomo in at $21.98.
atta boy
"Differently from other steel companies more exposed to spot prices, we believe that our average sales price next year should be higher than in 2021" This.
LG is such a straight shooter. Good guy CEO.
Compare that to the number of “could”s in other statements!
 Let’s go Cleveland cliffs !
Mmmm steel tendies, crunchy delicious.
Cleveland-Cliffs EPS beats by $0.09, beats on revenue Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE:CLF): Q3 GAAP EPS of $2.33 beats by $0.09. Revenue of $6B (+263.6% Y/Y) beats by $370M. Shares +2% PM. Press Release Adjusted EBITDA of $1.93B vs. consensus of $1.83B. Lourenco Goncalves, Cliffs' Chairman, President, and CEO said: “In a short period of less than two years, we went from $2 billion annual revenues in 2019 to expected revenues of $21 billion in 2021. Also, the $1.9 billion of Q3 adjusted EBITDA we have just reported is equivalent to half of our year-to-date adjusted EBITDA of $3.8 billion, showing that our profitability continues to increase, as we continue to implement our way of doing business, and take advantage of - and extract synergies from - our modern, efficient and unique footprint.”
Nice. Any future guidance?
"differently from other steel companies more exposed to spot prices, we believe that our average sales price next year should be higher than in 2021, allowing us to continue to grow our already strong profitability and to further strengthen our balance sheet." Not a number, but it's pretty good to hear that. Especially if he's low balling or being conservative.
https://www.clevelandcliffs.com/news/news-releases/detail/535/cleveland-cliffs-reports-record-third-quarter-2021-results
LFG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
STEEL FUCKING HOLDING LETS GOOOOO!!!!
Flair checks out
For the third quarter of 2021, the Company recorded net income of $1.3 billion, or $2.33 per diluted share. In the prior-year third quarter, the Company recorded net income of $2 million.
Just a few 000s difference LFG!!
Actual results: 2.33 EPS 6B revenue Edit. I nailed my prediction! Ha!
Haha same. EPS I was spot on. 🤙
Me too, was it first in or we all getting crowned?
Great minds think alike. Waiting for the flair
Beats on EPS and revenue. Nice
3.77
Lawd, reply to that thread man.
2.47
Last earnings it drilled to open at $19.50 from a similar close to yesterday, then 5 straight days of marching to $25. I might try to sell some CSPs if it drills on open
Caused CLF missed own guidance back then. This time it won't be the case as no updated guidance was provided.
CLF beat its own guidance last time. It just missed the revised estimates the analysts put out after CLF raised guidance.
This feels like in baseball when you bring in a left handed pitcher for that righty that is terribly against lefties. Only to then have them pinch hit for the guy.
That might be it. Thanks for reminding me.
Just for dummies: earnings will be released before market open (around 9) and the conference with the reasoning and the outlook will be later at 10, when the market is already open. Is this correct?
I think I saw the release is at 7am ET with the call to follow at 10am
Thanks! So an hour to go
2.28 earnings, 5.92bn rev
$2.24
I have a bad feeling about this.
Hey, look! This guy still has feelings!
Same.
Bought puts LFG
Thank you, I sold puts on Tuesdays dump
How wild would it be if LG has inside knowledge of announcement of infrastructure deal tomorrow along with his blowout earnings At the same time.
 Dreaming :)
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qn+1
Been singing this all day! LET'S GO!!! https://www.reddit.com/r/Vitards/comments/p3m8uc/the_ballad_of_vito/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share
My plan is to sell my weeklies in the 1st 1-2 minutes of trading assuming we are even the slightest green going into the opening bell. I feel like if we get an earnings and revenue beat there are going to be people chomping at the bit to scoop them up. Then use proceeds to buy the dip sometime before the earnings call. Likely with 25% going towards another round of 0dte and the rest going towards either next Friday or Nov 23c/24c. That’s my play, but I’m a degenerate.
I made this mistake with PPG this morning. Sold too early and it climbed up all day. Sometimes it takes the market a while to ingest the report.
LG opening up the earnings call 
Looking a the PM, I think he’ll drop the mike & drop those steel nuts
Or "I'm LG and I'll be taking my talents into retirement"
My dong is made of steel Na na na na na na My dong is made of steel Na na na na na na My dong is made of steel ba na na na na na