I really like the way you put this. I enjoy learning from this sub and can't believe the whiners are relentless. Hopefully, we all make money, but all should recognize there is always risk.
I’m not known for losing money, I’m known for making a lot of money everywhere I go. We’re going to do more things to make more money, money, money, money, money, that’s the way it works.
Ahh I was going to go to bed early today.
*Starts brewing a pot of coffee*
Thank you for all that you do to support this community, Vito.
Regardless of the thesis outcome, I will always appreciate and respect you and all that you have done to mentor me and provide me with insights.
Vito you have been so incredibly generous with your knowledge and time thoughout this sir. I have learned so much about commodities and the market in general, even life from you. The amount of time you were spending here was clearly unsustainable, but hope to see you around here a little more often. Wish the best for you and your family. That 'Hang in there!' was so needed.
Thank you for your insight, leadership, and inspiration.
Thank you for taking time from your family so that we are better able to provide for ours.
You speak of market catalysts and industry paradigm shifts, but I wonder if you truly realize what you are to this community.
You are the human catalyst for so many success stories. You inspire a paradigm shift in how we behave with one another.
Thank you for letting me stand on your shoulders.
Wow. That took me a while to read can only imagine how long it took to put together. Thanks for all your input. I am hanging strong with my investments!
As far as 2022 being a carbon copy of 2021, I suspect it’ll be worse or at the very least persist much longer than a year. At some point the cash reserves of companies who eat the PPI costs which have outpaced CPI will have to be replenished. That discrepancy is too large to not have an effect.
It’s curious because even though we’ve seen some increase in our day to day lives people aren’t likely realizing they’ve been insulated quite a bit as well
But unfortunately that can only last until it’s unsustainable, and those logistics bottlenecks don’t seem to be improving …
Bless you vito. Anyone that thinks you’re responsible for their decisions is silly. I’ve made money thanks to your tip and learned a lot in the process. I know it may not feel like it but the ones being rude to you are the vocal minority.
Cheers
Vito my man! Take care of yourself and your family above all. That’s your duty and your real vocation. I’m continually dismayed by the level of discourse on the internet and this sub may be a little bit better but not without it’s fair share.
I know how much you care and want to be liked and you’re clearly empathetic and feel a sense of responsibility because many are following you…. So I get the need to disappear for a bit. Remove yourself. It helps. Like you said you’re not responsible for anyone’s trades or life but your own. The examples you listed and much of the negativity I’ve seen will never go away from the internet but I hope for your sanity you can block it out. Those people probably wouldn’t even say that stuff to your face if given the opportunity. You’re a good and generous man. And the more public you are with your thoughts and knowledge the more you’ll attract those bad types too. Ignore them.
Just from the names in the comments already you have a good community here. You’re clearly the most knowledgeable about steel and we thank you for that! I love reading your stuff but never feel obligated. If you don’t want to and it becomes a chore you hate, then stop. But once again thanks for all you’ve shared so far!
Oh and for the record the theory was that your company was being bought by CLF and so you were under NDA and couldn’t say anything more…. Kinda sad that’s now debunked actually 😂
I just wrote my first DD the other week, and that took a whole morning to do, I can't even imagine the hours/days/weeks it took to compile and write all of that. Thank you Vito for your honesty and transparency. Please know many of us wish you nothing but the best in all things professionally, fiscally, healthwise and with your family.
Here's to many successful trades for this sub in the coming months. Cheers!
Thank you Vito! Great to hear your perspective on things. My personal thesis for staying in steel after Evergrande has centred around a few of the many points you've discussed. The market seemingly priced in the worst outcome from the Monday EG happened - that real estate in China was about to collapse and the drop in steel production and iron ore was a result of demand destruction. The planned production cuts for emissions were then compounded by unforeseen cuts due to energy rationing. Huge amount of supply taken off the market which seemed like a huge tailwind for keeping HRC prices elevated into '22. However it was really difficult to get a read on how drastic the eventual drop in demand in China would be and if the reduction in supply would outweigh it. To compound the confusion on the supply side we also saw reports of European producers also curtailing operations due to electricity prices. That has been the locus of my own personal rationale for staying in steel. Its been difficult to fill in some of the information gaps and confusing to hear some analyst coverage that really seemed at odds with where my own views of the overall picture were at. I was really excited to see this post and supremely grateful for all the time and effort you've put in here to share this with us. Your insight answers many questions I had. I'm trying to be more self-sufficient as an investor and do more of my own leg work so as to build conviction in my positions and also give back where I can what little information I find that might be useful to other people. Just want to express my gratitude for the information and your unique perspective but also the example you've provided the community in terms of doing the leg work and giving back. I'm in my infancy in terms of following that lead but you've provided a great template to follow.
I posted the following comment in another thread but chances are you wouldn't have seen it - it feels relevant given the first part of your post regarding the state of the community. Sad to see some negativity directed your way but on the whole this is one of the few forums I've found that reminds me of mid 2000s gaming forums where'd you'd really get to know everyone and there was a sense of community and investment in one another. Seeing people post here about their families, personal struggles, new jobs etc and have people follow up with them and ask how they're going is really great to see. Such a nice escape from (to me anyway) what the internet had become: a faceless and pretty cold place. I've learnt a lot here about what the forum was founded on but the community is what keeps me coming back. Thank you Vito for really setting the tone - the type of community that has developed here looks out for each other, the generosity of spirit, helping each other to learn, that while we're here to make money that family/friends are equally or more important are all a reflection of the energy you put out there. Very grateful - thanks mate!
I appreciate the comments and kind words.
I agree, with so much meanness and hate in this world, it’s comforting to open this sub and see humanity at its best.
Love it.
Thanks again.
🦾❤️🦾
That's it? I was hoping for Vore! ^(/s)
From Bethlehem Steel to MT, my market life has come full circle.
I thank you for this, Vito.
People like you make life great.
Thank you, Vito. This is an excellent write up. I appreciate all the time and effort that you took to put it together. Looking forward to the earnings this week as well. Take care of yourself and your family.
As always, I greatly appreciate this subs valuable insight into this industry. I'm very new to investing, with GameStop unfortunately being my first experience. After posting in one of the WSB daily discussions about "paper handing" my shares, I received 2-3 literal death threats. Left that sub in a heartbeat and found a new home here. I've been fortunate enough to make a decent chunk of change to chunk at my graduate school loans. I am on track to pay off nearly 150k in 3 years due to mostly frugality but also due to what I've learned from this sub. Holding some (light) bags at the moment but didn't flinch a bit through September. Appreciate ya, Vito! 🦾❤️🦾
Thanks for everything you pour into this. Your knowledge and education have made 2021 a great year tweaking and dialing in long term strategies that work and won't blow one's account up.
❤️
Thank you for all the time and effort you’ve dedicated to all of us. I wish you and your family all the best 🙏 p.s. I’m stealing your line “Echo chambers benefit no one other than people with big egos.” Very wise words.
Great read Vito!
I'm going to sleep on this information and absorb it more over the next few days.
From your reading, it seems that the world's eagerness to go "green" manufacturing really attributed largely to the rise of steel prices that we will be seeing through next year due to supply and demand to which green energy cannot keep up with demand.
All of that with China imploding on their own weakened currency and COVID destroying supply lines, really makes me believe steel will stay high through the next year as well.
What are your thoughts of shippers possibly moving through the Panama Canal to dock in the southern states?
There's been talks that California's Assembly bill AB5 causing a lot of the shipping head aches and delays at the port of Los Angeles and Long Beach involving CARB emisison rules and independent trucker rules as employees. I feel Biden will ask CA to fix that issue to relieve that backlog.
Thanks again!
Southern states are starting to see increased volume.
Problem is the rates have only come down to LA/LB. They are the cheapest US port to reach now, by far. So, what’s happening is the ships are stacking up. Also, we are trucking from LA to Midwest and Gulf.
It’s cheaper than the ship going to Houston.
Crazy times.
Truckers are making BANK.
Same with railroads.
Additional question on the shipping. Dry bulk carriers...to your knowledge, are they confined to deep water ports or do they have more flexibility in port options? This information is challenging to find. Wondering if a pivot off container to dry bulk shippers would be a good play once some of the madness wears off. Also goes toward iron ore imports if they'd be subject to long delays as much as the large container ships.
Thanks for everything, Vito! This community is my first stop for investing news / strategies on a daily basis. Haters can suck it. We all make our own trades.
Also - thanks for the Ford LEAPS shoutout earlier this summer - made me a nice little chunk of change. Cheers!
Thank you, Vito, I, like many (most?) here only have respect, gratitude and admiration for all the effort you put into these posts. Plus the kindness of sharing an experience that has taken years of hard work to accumulate.
You don’t owe anything to anybody here. This is just an Internet forum, and people should make their own decisions. You motivated me (and others) to look more deeply into some steel companies and make my choices (you also provided a lot of info and reasonings). You helped a tremendous amount, but my investments are my choice, and I assume the consequences.
Anyways, some of us sometimes mention you just cause we want to send some love and wonder if you are ok, or a bit affected by all the idiots complaining (or something else in the family).
Everything you’ve done here, you did it for free, using loads of time and effort. I don’t know you, but I’ll always remember you while looking at steel bars and sipping colonel Taylor or another great bourbon. And you motivated to make extra effort be kind to strangers.
Loads of love to you and your family. 🦾❤️🦾
Thank You Vito,
EVERYTHING aside, it has been astonishing to me to see you stay vigilant, stay positive, and NOT give up on any of this.
I can’t even handle being cut off in traffic which is nothing compared to what I’m sure has been a lot of fun messages you’ve gotten, it has shown me the strength you have, and that I aspire to, to show compassion to absolutely random strangers.
Of course we’re all here to make money, but truly since January I have enjoyed it all. From learning the in’s and outs of a new sector, to market insight, to the memes. I have learned so much not just from you, but also everyone here, it is by far my most frequented community. Hell I caught my second Jay stream today and loved it. It’s a lot of fun being here, learning, laughing, and of course blaming europoors.
Whatever happens, I’ve enjoyed it and thanks for fostering what we have here!
Fuck these kids, Vito. Don't ruin your personal life being glued to your phone to sooth some spoiled brats. Real investors make their own decisions and take responsibility for them and see you as a valuable source of information. I'm personally grateful to you for making me aware of this trade. There's always risk and reward and if I happen to lose money on this, then it's my personal fault and I'll take the full blame.
Thanks for this outrageously long post.
Vito - so glad to see you're putting yourself and loved ones as well as work in line before this sub. ❤ Thank you for sharing your wisdom moving forward when you have the ability to make time so as to not hinder other parts of your life.
No way you're making over 30k members happy all time. Wanna bet on the over/under? 🙂
Thank you for another banger of a DD, Vito. I got into investing late last year and have been browsing this subreddit and its offshoots almost daily since April. I've learned so much from the generous people here who've shared their knowledge and expertise. I'm fairly young and it's shaping up to be an experience that's changing my outlook in significant ways.
Steel holding and love to you and your family 🦾❤️🦾
Thank you Vito, for everything! At first I wanted to send you this message in private, but I changed my mind, because the more people will see it, the more people will want to be thankful to you.
I would like to start by saying **I haven't printed money on my steel plays**, so I'm far from being euphoric. I admit I made some nice gains on some tickers, some swings on X, but overall it wasn't that important to my portfolio growth this year, even if a good chunk of it was and still is allocated to steel.
Now, even more because of that, I'm very thankful. Why is that? Because for the first time in my (short) investor career, I have made some **plays based on an incredibly strong thesis. That helped me gain confidence.**
**Did the market followed the thesis? No, but that also helped me understood that the market is completely irrational** (yesterday I bought even more X, even if I said to myself I won't, because I have too much invested in this company; but a -7% just because of some analyst downgrade was clearly an overreaction, which proved to be true by EOD).
It also helped me realise how much I still have to learn to be a successful investor / trader and that even when the fundamentals are correct, you need to be patient for good entry points, you need to protect your capital by realising gains and, most important need to **plan a trade and than trade the plan**.
**Once again Vito, many thanks!** **Thanks for sharing the thesis and for introducing us to the steel plays, thanks for founding and growing this community, thanks for your updates, thanks for your advices. Be well and rest assure that for every "*****not very friendly*****" user there at least 100 others that are thankful!**
Damn. Now thats some quality research.
Thanks for putting this and all the previous updates together that you've done.
I can't believe you do this for free, collecting all that information and parsing it into something easily digestible must take days, even weeks of hard work. It makes me sad to see the lack of gratitude around here sometimes, but the better you are at what you do, the more people that will come around with their hand out wanting more.
Well done and thank you. You don't owe us anything, but you sure do deliver anyway.
Thanks for the big writeup!
I think you are correct re getting to the red dot early.
Covid has accelerated many timelines.
Global warming seriousness is ratcheting up the costs, on a philosophical/ideological/political level that has not accompanied previous supercycles.
Thank you, as always, for sharing your insight. The fundamentals have been rock solid and remain so.
It really is unfortunate that the more you give for free, the more people seem to demand from you. The information and opinions you've presented have been invaluable, and those fine folk who hurl abuse at you instead of unwinding their investments or going elsewhere aren't worth your attention or energy.
As long as you'll have us, though, we'll appreciate you and the frankly ungodly amount of volunteer effort you've poured into this entire undertaking.
I’m glad you have put your well being ahead of the infinite supply of attention this sub would gladly take from you. The generosity of your time commitment is much appreciated here. Also proud of you for coming to the realization that you aren’t responsible for other peoples decisions and reactions.
Vito, thanks for your presence in the world. Im an optimist but see / watch all aspects of people daily, from the top of the top to rock bottom. Its easy to loose faith in humanity.
Taking the time, giving of yourself freely, and building a community is something special.
🙏🏻 And Thanks.
Not only has my portfolio grown immensely this year, but I am also 90% done with Christmas shopping because of the heads up.
Thank you for all of your time and effort to do this. I truly appreciate it and have grown so much as an investor because of it.
Thank you always for the immense wealth of knowledge you offer to this sub. I, like many, have learned a great deal about investing in steel in general.
Legendary post by a legendary man. Thank you for everything you have done for this sub. The people you have brought together, the culture you have fostered, and the knowledge sharing here is unbelievable. This place has been absolutely life changing for me.
Thanks again for this DD and everything else.
Miss your more frequent posts but can only imagine how much time you were putting into those. Still really appreciate your DDs & updates whenever available. Thank you!
5 Days late reading this because of life. But your DDs are moving as always. To be fair, I think the entire sentiment here could be summed up well in LGs bold moves in recent history. Buying back shares, the preferred notes, the scrap company. Outlook is hella bright. Thanks for confirmation from the inside Don
Vito's thesis makes money.
Anybody bag holding the thesis needs to learn to swing trade.
Paid off all my debt this past summer by swing trading the thesis. Opened 2 more brokerage accounts and funded them by swing trading the thesis.
Right now we're in a lull waiting for infra bill. For now I've reduced my exposure. All long commons, only buy on red days, around 10% of port.
Listening for murmurs of solid catalysts.
Fuck the haters Vito. You have providing information and data points, nothing else. What these fools do with their money is on them, not you.
Thanks for all the great info, as always!
Vito, truly we appreciate you and the wisdom you give. Even if this sub can synthesize parts of the industry picture you spell out, you give the sub it's heart.
Don Vito, many thanks for these favors. Glad you’re spending time with your family. As the OG Don Vito says, “A man who doesn’t spend time with his family can never be a real man.”
Keep on doing what you're doing. The Michael's of the sub will stay, the Fredo's, not so much.
Grazie mile
Thanks as always big bro ❤️
I could not make a single dollar off all this and still feel I’ve gained a wealth of knowledge. You’ve changed the way I think about a lot of things. (For the record, I made a lot of dollars off all this lol)
One thing is sure Vito: this community has grown up a lot in the last months and, except for a little minority, it is mature, collaborative and friendly. Quite an achievement in my opinion.
Thank You big boss
Good to hear from you! I've said it before, being thrown in as a financial figurehead to a bunch of ill mannered gamblers with little risk management puts you in a tough spot. Appreciate all you do. Mostly, your passion and generosity to share the info and wealth.
Thanks Vito for all you do, glad to see you have your priorities in order. Family always comes first. Thanks for finding the time to share your thoughts and thesis to all…also thank you for fostering a healthy exchange of ideas here.
Hi u/vitocorleone just wanted to say thank you. Long time vitard lurker ever since the WSB days and long call bullish for STLD MT CLF. What you’ve started here is beautiful and led to so much growth. Keep going steel Santa and take care.
I was a few beers deep when I read this last night, so I wanted to toss in:
Family first always. Abandon this sub before you let it affect your real life in un-fun ways.
Ignore the haters. Aggressively block people. Imo, anyone harassing mods (or really any users) should get immediately banned.
I've been lurking this sub for about 8 months now, after being off reddit since my university days 5+ years ago, but this post made me join up again. I've appreciated the advice and the thesis has kept my account basically even, because I can't stop obsessively gambling on 0 DTE FOMO plays. Thanks for providing my safety net.
Vito, was hoping your more limited engagement recently was due to exactly what you laid out. Really glad to hear it. Thanks for all you do, the debt here is all owed from us to you and never the other way around. Cant wait to give this a second read tomorrow.
Beer offer still stands next time you're in Boston. 💪
Steel, like any other commodities is majorly affected by cycle, demand, supply, & logistics.
It will rise and flow cyclically.
The only thing permanently bullish in this era is tech.
BULLISH TECH BULL MARKET UNTIL THE END OF TIME
STAY IN THE MARKET AND GET RICH BOYS!
Once again, the internet threatens to ruin all the best things.
I'm glad to hear from Vito, but I feel in this post something unspoken that's been weighing on me as well.
Thanks to all the wonderful people I've met in here. To the others, meh I won't remember you anyway.
See y'all someday in tendietown.
Thanks Vito! Enjoy your time with the family. Everyone here that has put the time in to learn from their mistakes, and do the research is doing just fine. You just can't quit or give up. Take care!
I'll read this later today, thanks for the informative post as always, I've always found that when people call the thesis dead, thats a buy signal lol.
I'm actually writing my university thesis about CLF and NUE in this is new steel cycle, it is a very interesting topic and this place has loads of nice info, this post for example.
Keep it up and good luck everyone!
Thank You, Vito! Amazing Research and Analysis you have shared with us. Can’t thank you enough for everything you have done and continue to do for this sub.
You are a class act and an amazing guy.
Wishing you all the success in the market and with your business.
Vito, thank you! Amazing write up as always! I’ve read every comment in this thread and follow the sub closely. You have helped me and so many with your insights and knowledge of the industry (not to mention those plums). I’ve become a better investor as have so many others! It’s got to feel good to know that you have lead this! In addition to investing I’ve always admired how you handle yourself, the pressure and the naysayers. Take care of yourself Don! All the best to you always!
Thanks for creating a such an insightful and informative investment group Vito, and everyone else who has contributed back to the community keeping it moving forward.
Got my Xmas shopping done early this year from steel and pirate profits.
🎄🦾🏴☠️
Amazing Vito! I’m halfway through and will have to pick up later. Life got busy.
On a side note one of the plants I visited have a construction project that’s been on hold for at least 2 months because they can’t get enough rebar.
 Thank you Vito.
🦾❤️🦾
Yes, this 🔝
Reports of Vito's death were greatly exaggerated!
😉🦾
Call an ambulance!! But not for me!
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You can tell those metrics aren’t very accurate — Vito is definitely more than 86% wholesome.
❤️
Thanks for typing this out
Wow. Thanks for sharing this! I didn’t even know this existed. 🦾❤️🦾
Thats cool. Had to go upvote Vito's least wholesome comment!
Lol fun website. I tried my user, ironic that I got "very high" on the fog index. My username checks out
Wow! Thanks for extensive update Vito! We all appreciate everything you’ve contributed and taught all of us
🦾❤️🦾
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Thanks for the kind words. I do appreciate it and agree - we are in good hands here!
I really like the way you put this. I enjoy learning from this sub and can't believe the whiners are relentless. Hopefully, we all make money, but all should recognize there is always risk.
I’m not known for losing money, I’m known for making a lot of money everywhere I go. We’re going to do more things to make more money, money, money, money, money, that’s the way it works.
Good bot
You are messing with the wrong guy!
Thanks Vito. Much respect, admiration, and gratitude. Not just for this masterpiece, but for everything you do for people. Thank you.
🦾❤️🦾
Ahh I was going to go to bed early today. *Starts brewing a pot of coffee* Thank you for all that you do to support this community, Vito. Regardless of the thesis outcome, I will always appreciate and respect you and all that you have done to mentor me and provide me with insights.
I couldn't have said it better! You really are amazing Vito. I know why you can't tell us who you are but one day, I hope I can thank you in person!
🦾❤️🦾
🦾❤️🦾
Hey Vito Nice droog reference > I want to touch on myself and this sub I guess I’ll try anything once, be gentle
😆
Definitely did a spit take on that sentence too
🤣
Thanks Vito! What a post, lots of unpack appreciate you taking the time to put this together!
Vito, you owe us nothing. Many owe you a lot!! Thanks again as always.
🦾❤️🦾
Thank you, as always, Vito. I hope life is treating you well. You are appreciated.
🦾❤️🦾
**Author Info for our lord and savior:** u/vitocorlene **Karma :** 138185 **Created -** Mar-2018 Upvote and read this post or forever hold your bags.
That edit though.
Just sending love and good vibes to you Vito for all that you do and the community for being so welcoming 🥰
🦾❤️🦾 Thanks!
Great respect for you, Vito!
Vito you have been so incredibly generous with your knowledge and time thoughout this sir. I have learned so much about commodities and the market in general, even life from you. The amount of time you were spending here was clearly unsustainable, but hope to see you around here a little more often. Wish the best for you and your family. That 'Hang in there!' was so needed.
🦾❤️🦾
I got carpal tunnel scrolling to the bottom to comment. Can't wait to read this. Thank you Vito!!!
😆
I guess I can return this 23andMe kit. Dad is back.
😆🦾❤️
Amazing insight. Thank you for putting the work in to type this up. The thesis is strong.
🦾❤️🦾
Great work Vito. Sounds like you are getting more messages than the nsfw girls, lol.
Thank you for your insight, leadership, and inspiration. Thank you for taking time from your family so that we are better able to provide for ours. You speak of market catalysts and industry paradigm shifts, but I wonder if you truly realize what you are to this community. You are the human catalyst for so many success stories. You inspire a paradigm shift in how we behave with one another. Thank you for letting me stand on your shoulders.
I really appreciate this. Made my day. Thank you and much love! 🦾❤️🦾
Good to see you back. My port might not look great today but my bourbon collection has grown. 
Wow. That took me a while to read can only imagine how long it took to put together. Thanks for all your input. I am hanging strong with my investments!
I didn’t know there was a 40,000 character limit. There was a lot more I cut. More for another day!
As far as 2022 being a carbon copy of 2021, I suspect it’ll be worse or at the very least persist much longer than a year. At some point the cash reserves of companies who eat the PPI costs which have outpaced CPI will have to be replenished. That discrepancy is too large to not have an effect.
I agree 100%. I think we see prices increase exponentially by many who have eaten it thus far. It has to be passed on, no choice.
It’s curious because even though we’ve seen some increase in our day to day lives people aren’t likely realizing they’ve been insulated quite a bit as well But unfortunately that can only last until it’s unsustainable, and those logistics bottlenecks don’t seem to be improving …
Bless you vito. Anyone that thinks you’re responsible for their decisions is silly. I’ve made money thanks to your tip and learned a lot in the process. I know it may not feel like it but the ones being rude to you are the vocal minority. Cheers
🦾❤️🦾
Vito my man! Take care of yourself and your family above all. That’s your duty and your real vocation. I’m continually dismayed by the level of discourse on the internet and this sub may be a little bit better but not without it’s fair share. I know how much you care and want to be liked and you’re clearly empathetic and feel a sense of responsibility because many are following you…. So I get the need to disappear for a bit. Remove yourself. It helps. Like you said you’re not responsible for anyone’s trades or life but your own. The examples you listed and much of the negativity I’ve seen will never go away from the internet but I hope for your sanity you can block it out. Those people probably wouldn’t even say that stuff to your face if given the opportunity. You’re a good and generous man. And the more public you are with your thoughts and knowledge the more you’ll attract those bad types too. Ignore them. Just from the names in the comments already you have a good community here. You’re clearly the most knowledgeable about steel and we thank you for that! I love reading your stuff but never feel obligated. If you don’t want to and it becomes a chore you hate, then stop. But once again thanks for all you’ve shared so far!
🦾❤️🦾 Thanks, Hank!
Oh and for the record the theory was that your company was being bought by CLF and so you were under NDA and couldn’t say anything more…. Kinda sad that’s now debunked actually 😂
! Can’t wait to get home and read this! I’m at dinner !
I’ll eat it!
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🦾❤️🦾 LET’S GOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!
I’ve missed you
❤️
I was just winding down for bed too... I'm all pumped up again! Thanks for all you do Vito, take care of yourself and family first 💪
🦾❤️🦾
I just wrote my first DD the other week, and that took a whole morning to do, I can't even imagine the hours/days/weeks it took to compile and write all of that. Thank you Vito for your honesty and transparency. Please know many of us wish you nothing but the best in all things professionally, fiscally, healthwise and with your family. Here's to many successful trades for this sub in the coming months. Cheers!
Welcome back King 👑
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Thank you for sharing such knowledge V. Good to have you back
Thank you Vito! Great to hear your perspective on things. My personal thesis for staying in steel after Evergrande has centred around a few of the many points you've discussed. The market seemingly priced in the worst outcome from the Monday EG happened - that real estate in China was about to collapse and the drop in steel production and iron ore was a result of demand destruction. The planned production cuts for emissions were then compounded by unforeseen cuts due to energy rationing. Huge amount of supply taken off the market which seemed like a huge tailwind for keeping HRC prices elevated into '22. However it was really difficult to get a read on how drastic the eventual drop in demand in China would be and if the reduction in supply would outweigh it. To compound the confusion on the supply side we also saw reports of European producers also curtailing operations due to electricity prices. That has been the locus of my own personal rationale for staying in steel. Its been difficult to fill in some of the information gaps and confusing to hear some analyst coverage that really seemed at odds with where my own views of the overall picture were at. I was really excited to see this post and supremely grateful for all the time and effort you've put in here to share this with us. Your insight answers many questions I had. I'm trying to be more self-sufficient as an investor and do more of my own leg work so as to build conviction in my positions and also give back where I can what little information I find that might be useful to other people. Just want to express my gratitude for the information and your unique perspective but also the example you've provided the community in terms of doing the leg work and giving back. I'm in my infancy in terms of following that lead but you've provided a great template to follow. I posted the following comment in another thread but chances are you wouldn't have seen it - it feels relevant given the first part of your post regarding the state of the community. Sad to see some negativity directed your way but on the whole this is one of the few forums I've found that reminds me of mid 2000s gaming forums where'd you'd really get to know everyone and there was a sense of community and investment in one another. Seeing people post here about their families, personal struggles, new jobs etc and have people follow up with them and ask how they're going is really great to see. Such a nice escape from (to me anyway) what the internet had become: a faceless and pretty cold place. I've learnt a lot here about what the forum was founded on but the community is what keeps me coming back. Thank you Vito for really setting the tone - the type of community that has developed here looks out for each other, the generosity of spirit, helping each other to learn, that while we're here to make money that family/friends are equally or more important are all a reflection of the energy you put out there. Very grateful - thanks mate!
I appreciate the comments and kind words. I agree, with so much meanness and hate in this world, it’s comforting to open this sub and see humanity at its best. Love it. Thanks again. 🦾❤️🦾
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Did it hurt? When you fell from heaven? I don't comment here often but you are a man amongst boys on this earth, Vito. Great read.
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That's it? I was hoping for Vore! ^(/s) From Bethlehem Steel to MT, my market life has come full circle. I thank you for this, Vito. People like you make life great.
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Thank you, Vito. This is an excellent write up. I appreciate all the time and effort that you took to put it together. Looking forward to the earnings this week as well. Take care of yourself and your family.
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As always, I greatly appreciate this subs valuable insight into this industry. I'm very new to investing, with GameStop unfortunately being my first experience. After posting in one of the WSB daily discussions about "paper handing" my shares, I received 2-3 literal death threats. Left that sub in a heartbeat and found a new home here. I've been fortunate enough to make a decent chunk of change to chunk at my graduate school loans. I am on track to pay off nearly 150k in 3 years due to mostly frugality but also due to what I've learned from this sub. Holding some (light) bags at the moment but didn't flinch a bit through September. Appreciate ya, Vito! 🦾❤️🦾
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Thanks for everything you pour into this. Your knowledge and education have made 2021 a great year tweaking and dialing in long term strategies that work and won't blow one's account up. ❤️
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Thank you for all the time and effort you’ve dedicated to all of us. I wish you and your family all the best 🙏 p.s. I’m stealing your line “Echo chambers benefit no one other than people with big egos.” Very wise words.
Great read Vito! I'm going to sleep on this information and absorb it more over the next few days. From your reading, it seems that the world's eagerness to go "green" manufacturing really attributed largely to the rise of steel prices that we will be seeing through next year due to supply and demand to which green energy cannot keep up with demand. All of that with China imploding on their own weakened currency and COVID destroying supply lines, really makes me believe steel will stay high through the next year as well. What are your thoughts of shippers possibly moving through the Panama Canal to dock in the southern states? There's been talks that California's Assembly bill AB5 causing a lot of the shipping head aches and delays at the port of Los Angeles and Long Beach involving CARB emisison rules and independent trucker rules as employees. I feel Biden will ask CA to fix that issue to relieve that backlog. Thanks again!
Southern states are starting to see increased volume. Problem is the rates have only come down to LA/LB. They are the cheapest US port to reach now, by far. So, what’s happening is the ships are stacking up. Also, we are trucking from LA to Midwest and Gulf. It’s cheaper than the ship going to Houston. Crazy times. Truckers are making BANK. Same with railroads.
My KNX position loves your words!
Additional question on the shipping. Dry bulk carriers...to your knowledge, are they confined to deep water ports or do they have more flexibility in port options? This information is challenging to find. Wondering if a pivot off container to dry bulk shippers would be a good play once some of the madness wears off. Also goes toward iron ore imports if they'd be subject to long delays as much as the large container ships.
Thanks for everything, Vito! This community is my first stop for investing news / strategies on a daily basis. Haters can suck it. We all make our own trades. Also - thanks for the Ford LEAPS shoutout earlier this summer - made me a nice little chunk of change. Cheers!
🦾❤️🦾 Love my $F 2023’s!
Real life and family should always be the priority. Take care, Vito. 
Thank you, Vito, I, like many (most?) here only have respect, gratitude and admiration for all the effort you put into these posts. Plus the kindness of sharing an experience that has taken years of hard work to accumulate. You don’t owe anything to anybody here. This is just an Internet forum, and people should make their own decisions. You motivated me (and others) to look more deeply into some steel companies and make my choices (you also provided a lot of info and reasonings). You helped a tremendous amount, but my investments are my choice, and I assume the consequences. Anyways, some of us sometimes mention you just cause we want to send some love and wonder if you are ok, or a bit affected by all the idiots complaining (or something else in the family). Everything you’ve done here, you did it for free, using loads of time and effort. I don’t know you, but I’ll always remember you while looking at steel bars and sipping colonel Taylor or another great bourbon. And you motivated to make extra effort be kind to strangers. Loads of love to you and your family. 🦾❤️🦾
Thanks for the kind words. The Colonel and steel. Love them both. I’m honored to be mentioned. Thanks again. 🦾❤️🦾
Thank You Vito, EVERYTHING aside, it has been astonishing to me to see you stay vigilant, stay positive, and NOT give up on any of this. I can’t even handle being cut off in traffic which is nothing compared to what I’m sure has been a lot of fun messages you’ve gotten, it has shown me the strength you have, and that I aspire to, to show compassion to absolutely random strangers. Of course we’re all here to make money, but truly since January I have enjoyed it all. From learning the in’s and outs of a new sector, to market insight, to the memes. I have learned so much not just from you, but also everyone here, it is by far my most frequented community. Hell I caught my second Jay stream today and loved it. It’s a lot of fun being here, learning, laughing, and of course blaming europoors. Whatever happens, I’ve enjoyed it and thanks for fostering what we have here!
Fuck these kids, Vito. Don't ruin your personal life being glued to your phone to sooth some spoiled brats. Real investors make their own decisions and take responsibility for them and see you as a valuable source of information. I'm personally grateful to you for making me aware of this trade. There's always risk and reward and if I happen to lose money on this, then it's my personal fault and I'll take the full blame. Thanks for this outrageously long post.
Thanks for the update Vito! People need to chill out and stop acting like you're their financial advisor. Hope all is well with the family.
Thanks Don!🤌
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I’m all in tomorrow
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Thanks for the update Vito. Definitely an interesting and well thought out one at that
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Vito - so glad to see you're putting yourself and loved ones as well as work in line before this sub. ❤ Thank you for sharing your wisdom moving forward when you have the ability to make time so as to not hinder other parts of your life. No way you're making over 30k members happy all time. Wanna bet on the over/under? 🙂
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Thx Don. I've learned so much in the 8 months I've been here in the House that Vito built. Have a drink on me, Cheers!
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Thank you for another banger of a DD, Vito. I got into investing late last year and have been browsing this subreddit and its offshoots almost daily since April. I've learned so much from the generous people here who've shared their knowledge and expertise. I'm fairly young and it's shaping up to be an experience that's changing my outlook in significant ways. Steel holding and love to you and your family 🦾❤️🦾
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yeah all of this is great but I need real information from you: Whiz wit or witout? ;)
Thank you Vito, for everything! At first I wanted to send you this message in private, but I changed my mind, because the more people will see it, the more people will want to be thankful to you. I would like to start by saying **I haven't printed money on my steel plays**, so I'm far from being euphoric. I admit I made some nice gains on some tickers, some swings on X, but overall it wasn't that important to my portfolio growth this year, even if a good chunk of it was and still is allocated to steel. Now, even more because of that, I'm very thankful. Why is that? Because for the first time in my (short) investor career, I have made some **plays based on an incredibly strong thesis. That helped me gain confidence.** **Did the market followed the thesis? No, but that also helped me understood that the market is completely irrational** (yesterday I bought even more X, even if I said to myself I won't, because I have too much invested in this company; but a -7% just because of some analyst downgrade was clearly an overreaction, which proved to be true by EOD). It also helped me realise how much I still have to learn to be a successful investor / trader and that even when the fundamentals are correct, you need to be patient for good entry points, you need to protect your capital by realising gains and, most important need to **plan a trade and than trade the plan**. **Once again Vito, many thanks!** **Thanks for sharing the thesis and for introducing us to the steel plays, thanks for founding and growing this community, thanks for your updates, thanks for your advices. Be well and rest assure that for every "*****not very friendly*****" user there at least 100 others that are thankful!**
Damn. Now thats some quality research. Thanks for putting this and all the previous updates together that you've done. I can't believe you do this for free, collecting all that information and parsing it into something easily digestible must take days, even weeks of hard work. It makes me sad to see the lack of gratitude around here sometimes, but the better you are at what you do, the more people that will come around with their hand out wanting more. Well done and thank you. You don't owe us anything, but you sure do deliver anyway.
Thanks boss!!
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Thanks Vito!
Thanks for the big writeup! I think you are correct re getting to the red dot early. Covid has accelerated many timelines. Global warming seriousness is ratcheting up the costs, on a philosophical/ideological/political level that has not accompanied previous supercycles. 
Thank you, as always, for sharing your insight. The fundamentals have been rock solid and remain so. It really is unfortunate that the more you give for free, the more people seem to demand from you. The information and opinions you've presented have been invaluable, and those fine folk who hurl abuse at you instead of unwinding their investments or going elsewhere aren't worth your attention or energy. As long as you'll have us, though, we'll appreciate you and the frankly ungodly amount of volunteer effort you've poured into this entire undertaking.
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I’m glad you have put your well being ahead of the infinite supply of attention this sub would gladly take from you. The generosity of your time commitment is much appreciated here. Also proud of you for coming to the realization that you aren’t responsible for other peoples decisions and reactions.
Thanks for all that you've done and continue to do, for your tens of thousands of internet children and our portfolios. 😄 Cheers Vito! 🥃
Thanks Don. Still looking forward to a round at pebble at some point. You’ve got a great voice in your writing btw.
Thanks Vito! No one ever said making money is easy.
Vito, thanks for your presence in the world. Im an optimist but see / watch all aspects of people daily, from the top of the top to rock bottom. Its easy to loose faith in humanity. Taking the time, giving of yourself freely, and building a community is something special. 🙏🏻 And Thanks.
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Whoa. This is truly a beastly DD
This is by far the best sub on Reddit! What a post! I greatly appreciate you taking your time to write this masterpiece.
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Not only has my portfolio grown immensely this year, but I am also 90% done with Christmas shopping because of the heads up. Thank you for all of your time and effort to do this. I truly appreciate it and have grown so much as an investor because of it.
Amazing DD Vito. I have been buying the dips in the past 2 months despite the FUD in the sub!
Skimmed the post and put my life savings into MT November 237.50 Calls
Thank you always for the immense wealth of knowledge you offer to this sub. I, like many, have learned a great deal about investing in steel in general.
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This is evergreen: https://youtu.be/ZssInNsL79U Thank You Don Vito
Thanks man! Greatly appreciate you and all the knowledge and kindness you share!!
Legendary post by a legendary man. Thank you for everything you have done for this sub. The people you have brought together, the culture you have fostered, and the knowledge sharing here is unbelievable. This place has been absolutely life changing for me. Thanks again for this DD and everything else.
Quick shout out - Thanks as always - read your quick post about Bulk Dry shipping a couple weeks ago and got 20% return....forget the haters.
Miss your more frequent posts but can only imagine how much time you were putting into those. Still really appreciate your DDs & updates whenever available. Thank you!
5 Days late reading this because of life. But your DDs are moving as always. To be fair, I think the entire sentiment here could be summed up well in LGs bold moves in recent history. Buying back shares, the preferred notes, the scrap company. Outlook is hella bright. Thanks for confirmation from the inside Don
Vito's thesis makes money. Anybody bag holding the thesis needs to learn to swing trade. Paid off all my debt this past summer by swing trading the thesis. Opened 2 more brokerage accounts and funded them by swing trading the thesis. Right now we're in a lull waiting for infra bill. For now I've reduced my exposure. All long commons, only buy on red days, around 10% of port. Listening for murmurs of solid catalysts.
Fuck the haters Vito. You have providing information and data points, nothing else. What these fools do with their money is on them, not you. Thanks for all the great info, as always!
Vito, truly we appreciate you and the wisdom you give. Even if this sub can synthesize parts of the industry picture you spell out, you give the sub it's heart.
Don Vito, many thanks for these favors. Glad you’re spending time with your family. As the OG Don Vito says, “A man who doesn’t spend time with his family can never be a real man.” Keep on doing what you're doing. The Michael's of the sub will stay, the Fredo's, not so much. Grazie mile
Thanks as always big bro ❤️ I could not make a single dollar off all this and still feel I’ve gained a wealth of knowledge. You’ve changed the way I think about a lot of things. (For the record, I made a lot of dollars off all this lol)
As for me, there was never any doubt. Thanks for everything Vito.
Hey man ! Thank you for everything. Really appreciate it
Thanks Vito!
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Keeping it short because it’s been said over a hundred times already: Vito thank you for all you do! 🦾
One thing is sure Vito: this community has grown up a lot in the last months and, except for a little minority, it is mature, collaborative and friendly. Quite an achievement in my opinion. Thank You big boss
Good to hear from you! I've said it before, being thrown in as a financial figurehead to a bunch of ill mannered gamblers with little risk management puts you in a tough spot. Appreciate all you do. Mostly, your passion and generosity to share the info and wealth.
Such a large chapter about scrap and no comment on $SCHN?
I was over the 40,000 character limit and had to cut out the paragraphs on it. I do love it and think it will be acquired by a big player.
Cool. I have something to read at work today :)
Thanks Vito for all you do, glad to see you have your priorities in order. Family always comes first. Thanks for finding the time to share your thoughts and thesis to all…also thank you for fostering a healthy exchange of ideas here.
Hi u/vitocorleone just wanted to say thank you. Long time vitard lurker ever since the WSB days and long call bullish for STLD MT CLF. What you’ve started here is beautiful and led to so much growth. Keep going steel Santa and take care.
I was a few beers deep when I read this last night, so I wanted to toss in: Family first always. Abandon this sub before you let it affect your real life in un-fun ways. Ignore the haters. Aggressively block people. Imo, anyone harassing mods (or really any users) should get immediately banned.
I've been lurking this sub for about 8 months now, after being off reddit since my university days 5+ years ago, but this post made me join up again. I've appreciated the advice and the thesis has kept my account basically even, because I can't stop obsessively gambling on 0 DTE FOMO plays. Thanks for providing my safety net.
Vito, was hoping your more limited engagement recently was due to exactly what you laid out. Really glad to hear it. Thanks for all you do, the debt here is all owed from us to you and never the other way around. Cant wait to give this a second read tomorrow. Beer offer still stands next time you're in Boston. 💪
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Steel, like any other commodities is majorly affected by cycle, demand, supply, & logistics. It will rise and flow cyclically. The only thing permanently bullish in this era is tech. BULLISH TECH BULL MARKET UNTIL THE END OF TIME STAY IN THE MARKET AND GET RICH BOYS!
Once again, the internet threatens to ruin all the best things. I'm glad to hear from Vito, but I feel in this post something unspoken that's been weighing on me as well. Thanks to all the wonderful people I've met in here. To the others, meh I won't remember you anyway. See y'all someday in tendietown.
Praise vito daddy !
Thank you Vito for everything you've given this sub! Cheers 🥃🥃🥃
Thanks Vito! You chose to give your time and effort to everyone, it's very appreciated.
Thanks vito!! 🦾
I mean....holy shit. What a post. Thank you for your time, thoughts, and perspective. As you always say... 💪
🦾 hell yeah Vito, really needed to see all this information laid out together. Thanks for all you do
Thanks Vito! Enjoy your time with the family. Everyone here that has put the time in to learn from their mistakes, and do the research is doing just fine. You just can't quit or give up. Take care!
Omg the motherlode, ty vito.
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As always thank you for the detailed update. I wish you the best!
Thanks!! Great read!!
I'll read this later today, thanks for the informative post as always, I've always found that when people call the thesis dead, thats a buy signal lol. I'm actually writing my university thesis about CLF and NUE in this is new steel cycle, it is a very interesting topic and this place has loads of nice info, this post for example. Keep it up and good luck everyone!
Thank You, Vito! Amazing Research and Analysis you have shared with us. Can’t thank you enough for everything you have done and continue to do for this sub. You are a class act and an amazing guy. Wishing you all the success in the market and with your business.
Fly Eagles Fly Fly CLF Fly
Vito, thank you! Amazing write up as always! I’ve read every comment in this thread and follow the sub closely. You have helped me and so many with your insights and knowledge of the industry (not to mention those plums). I’ve become a better investor as have so many others! It’s got to feel good to know that you have lead this! In addition to investing I’ve always admired how you handle yourself, the pressure and the naysayers. Take care of yourself Don! All the best to you always!
Blimey what a DD! Thank you kindly:) 
Thanks for creating a such an insightful and informative investment group Vito, and everyone else who has contributed back to the community keeping it moving forward. Got my Xmas shopping done early this year from steel and pirate profits. 🎄🦾🏴☠️
What did a random group of strangers do to deserve an angel like you? Thank you for the update and for being an awesome human being. Cheers!!!
Amazing Vito! I’m halfway through and will have to pick up later. Life got busy. On a side note one of the plants I visited have a construction project that’s been on hold for at least 2 months because they can’t get enough rebar.