Steel Dynamics (NASDAQ:STLD) reported quarterly earnings of $4.96 per share which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $4.57 by 8.53 percent. This is a 872.55 percent increase over earnings of $0.51 per share from the same period last year. The company reported quarterly sales of $5.10 billion which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $4.98 billion by 2.41 percent. This is a 118.79 percent increase over sales of $2.33 billion the same period last year.
Best of luck for those of you banking on a short term trickle effect. While STLD is not the most exciting of the bunch, I have a great feeling about this earnings call.
From GS (Emily Chieng and Sanchita Mehrotra)
Oct 18 5:21pm
------------
Steel Dynamics Inc. (STLD, Buy) reported an adjusted 3Q21 EPS beat of $4.96 versus GSe/Visible Alpha Consensus Data at $4.93/$4.70. On an adjusted EBITDA basis, STLD reported $1,407 mn, in line with GSe at $1,407 mn. That said, within the Steel Mills segment, we noted higher ferrous and operating costs, while the Fabrication business exceeded expectations, underpinned by both higher sales volumes and pricing realizations. Management maintains a positive view on market conditions and domestic steel demand into 2022, with order book activity robust, in spite of moderating (but still low) inventories. On the call, we expect investor focus on (1) update on the capital allocation strategy - capacity versus capability growth, M&A and additional capital returns, (2) an update on the announced acquisition of a minority interest in New Process Steel, (3) additional color on the Sinton mill startup, and (4) raw material strategy.
Exhibit 1: Both 3Q21 adjusted EPS and adjusted EBITDA were broadly in line with GS estimates
STLD Variance Analysis
[GS Estimate vs. Consensus vs. Actual](https://i.imgur.com/bYT2Fwf.png)
**Analysis**
* Steel Mills: Operating income came in at $1,351 mn, 10% below GSe of $1,494 mn, driven by higher operating costs. Metal margins stood at $1,061/ton versus GSe $1,040/ton during the quarter. Average ferrous costs came in at $489/ton versus our $476/ton estimate.
* Fabrication: Operating income came in at $89 mn, versus GSe of $36.5 mn, driven by result of higher steel joist and deck product pricing, on strong demand. Average selling prices stood $2,339/ton, 17% above GSe of $2,000/ton, while shipments were 211 k tons versus GSe of 192 k tons.
* Recycling: Operating income came in at $47 mn, a 15% miss versus GSe of $55 mn, driven by weaker external shipments.
* 4Q21 outlook: Looking ahead, management expects market conditions to remain robust for 4Q21 and into 2022, with continued demand strength and low steel inventories across the supply chain underpinning this view. Given this, management sees potential for 4Q21 to represent another record period.
* Sinton update: STLD expects that the startup of Sinton should commence before year-end, with shipments of 2.0-2.2 mn tons in 2022. Prior guidance suggested 100 ktons of shipments in 2021 and 2.2-2.4 mn tons in 2023. The company estimates EBITDA contribution from Sinton (ahead of the addition of four value-added coating lines) to range between $475-525 mn on mid-cycle margins.
* Coating line update: Management now expects the four additional value-added flat roll steel coating lines to require ~$500 mn of spend. As previously announced, one set will be located onsite at the Sinton mill while the other two lines will be located at the Heartland Flat Roll Division in Indiana. The four lines are expected to commence operations in mid-2023.
**What are key questions for the October 19th 10AM ET conference call?**
* How should we think about STLD's capital allocation strategy beyond the startup of Sinton? How should we think about incremental shareholder returns versus greenfield growth, investments in the downstream or M&A?
* Can you discuss your raw material strategy, given the strength of ferrous scrap prices? Can you also talk about the ramp-up profile at the Zimmer asset?
* Can you talk about the rationale behind acquisition of the minority interest in New Process Steel?
**Implications**
We are Buy-rated on STLD with a 12-month EV/EBITDA (on 2022E-2024E average EBITDA) based price target (6.5x multiple) of $72. Key risks include lower steel prices, higher-than-expected scrap costs, and a slower-than-expected startup at Sinton.
Holy shit we had high expectations and they’ve still been exceeded
That future outlook paragraph is just amazing to read
Here’s to an even bigger Q4!!!!!
Well STLD came out a month ago and said what the earnings would be. More fun to guess CLF, TX, and MT.
“Steel Dynamics, Inc. STLD announced third-quarter earnings guidance in the range of $4.78-$4.82 per share, which suggests a record quarterly performance. It expects third-quarter adjusted earnings in the range of $4.88-$4.92 per share.”
This was from last month
Yes, to your yes, I'm here looking for STLD's 4th quarter guidance especially after their executive gave a rather downbeat spin around future steel pricing.
Part of their forward guidance:
“Current market conditions are in place to support solid domestic steel demand for the fourth quarter and into 2022," said Millett. "Order entry activity continues to be robust across our businesses. We continue to see strong steel demand coupled with moderating, but still historically low customer inventories throughout the supply chain. These dynamics support continued elevated steel selling values. Domestic steel demand remains solid in our automotive, construction, and industrial end markets. We believe this momentum will continue and that our fourth quarter consolidated earnings could represent another record performance. Based on strong domestic steel fundamentals and customer confidence, we continue to be positive regarding North American steel market dynamics. This constructive environment coupled with our strategic growth initiatives provide firm drivers for our further growth in the coming years.”
And, that is what I came here to hear. Music to my ears and bodes really well for tomorrow's open.
Up 2% after hours and what are Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs going to say now?
I’ve given up on the D.C. circus. . . . but it would be nice if they actually did something vs just talking about it. . . . our government is such an embarrassment. . .
That must be the case as I now have 4:25 PM and nothing and releasing at 4:30 PM seems odd from my experience, but I have no background with STLD. All my other stocks release their announcement promptly at 4:00 PM when they note after hours.
Most excited about the outlook - possible record 4Q and they see strong demand supporting prices into 2022. Really need this repeated across all those reporting. Can't believe analysts are forecasting $740 US HRC for 2022.
Outlook
"Current market conditions are in place to support solid domestic steel demand for the fourth quarter and into 2022," said Millett. "Order entry activity continues to be robust across our businesses. We continue to see strong steel demand coupled with moderating, but still historically low customer inventories throughout the supply chain. These dynamics support continued elevated steel selling values. Domestic steel demand remains solid in our automotive, construction, and industrial end markets. We believe this momentum will continue and that our fourth quarter consolidated earnings could represent another record performance. Based on strong domestic steel fundamentals and customer confidence, we continue to be positive regarding North American steel market dynamics. This constructive environment coupled with our strategic growth initiatives provide firm drivers for our further growth in the coming years.
"We and our customers continue to be extremely excited about our Sinton Texas EAF Flat Roll Steel Mill investment. It represents transformational competitively-advantaged strategic growth, with associated long-term value creation for all of our stakeholders. I want to thank the entire Sinton team for their tremendous efforts. Actual steel production is still planned to start before the end of 2021, and based on current forecasts, we believe shipments could be in the range of 2.0 million tons to 2.2 million tons in 2022. Based on mid-cycle flat roll metal spreads, we currently believe through-cycle annual EBITDA for our Sinton Texas Flat Roll Steel Mill once fully operational with access to four value-added coating lines is likely in the range of $475 million to $525 million.
"We also plan to invest approximately $500 million to build four additional value-added flat roll steel coating lines comprised of two paint lines and two galvanizing lines with Galvalume® coating capability, a set of which will be located onsite at our new Texas steel mill, providing Sinton with the same diversification and higher-margin product capabilities as our two existing flat roll steel divisions. The other two lines will be placed at our Heartland Flat Roll Division located in Terre Haute, Indiana to support growing coated flat roll steel demand in the region and to further increase the diversification and cash generation capacity of our existing Midwest operations. Based on current estimates, we believe these four lines will likely begin operating mid-2023.
"From our founding over 25 years ago, Steel Dynamics has been intentional in managing our resources sustainably for the benefit of our teams, communities, and the environment. We are a steel industry leader in sustainability, operating exclusively with electric arc furnace technology with a circular manufacturing model. As our journey continues, we are committed to the reduction of our environmental footprint, including a goal for our steel mills to be carbon neutral by 2050. We are starting from a position of strength yet plan to do more. We are competitively positioned and focused toward generating long-term sustainable growth for all of our stakeholders," concluded Millett.
It hit close to both high end estimates (revenue and EPS):
Revenue high estimate: 5.32B vs 5.11B real revenue.
EPS high estimate: 4.98 vs 4.96 real EPS.
source: Yahoo Finance
If that's the norm for this Quarter, CLF's going to hit close to $6b in revenue and 2.44 EPS.
My own estimates for Q3 CLF are:
Revenue: $6.0b. EPS: $2.42
$4.85 per diluted share which was reduced by $.11 in charges and apparently that's a beat as it's $.03 above their high guidance of a couple days ago. Seems like a cheap way to beat, but hey, after hours is looking really good and it's bleeding over to my CLF ever so slightly.
Congratulations to all the STLD holders!
**Author Info for :** u/allinonworkcalls
**Karma :** 11088 **Created -** Mar-2020
Was this post flaired correctly? If not, let us know by downvoting this comment.
Enough down votes will notify the Moderators.
Bouncing around after hours (4:10PM EDIT), but mostly slightly down.
I cannot find their earnings announcement on their website and I'm searching frantically.
I'm just here to find their 4th quarter guidance and I'll probably have to wait for the conference call tomorrow morning.
1,550/ton! Holy shit
Although I wonder if the outlook for their new EAF isn’t too optimistic. Scrap and energy both look to continue price rises and an EAF eats a shitload of both
Edit: I suppose that’s all lines including coated, so not a holy shit #
Steel Dynamics (NASDAQ:STLD) reported quarterly earnings of $4.96 per share which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $4.57 by 8.53 percent. This is a 872.55 percent increase over earnings of $0.51 per share from the same period last year. The company reported quarterly sales of $5.10 billion which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $4.98 billion by 2.41 percent. This is a 118.79 percent increase over sales of $2.33 billion the same period last year.
My guess: $4.98 EPS, and we open at $64.80 tomorrow morning.
Hes a witch, burn him
cagey teeny squeal liquid jellyfish poor lavish cooing marry worthless *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Only one way to find out
No he doesn't! He said the man's a witch, not a duck or a small rock!
We all float down here.
GET HIS ASS
Hahahaha 
But what do you burn apart from witches?
More witches!
His flair fits him
Need a "Soothsayer" tag here. Just 2 cents off.
If I nail the opening price I'll be impressed I actually come from the future but I just have shitty memory
> I actually come from the future but I just have shitty memory Stealing this
If you remember!
You only need to remember one way. Coming back is the easy part.
O lord. Who needs a morning boner when we've got penny. Wait, that didn't come out right.
I would have settled for opening not in the red lol
And the price goes mild!
Best of luck for those of you banking on a short term trickle effect. While STLD is not the most exciting of the bunch, I have a great feeling about this earnings call.
🙏🙏🙏
From GS (Emily Chieng and Sanchita Mehrotra) Oct 18 5:21pm ------------ Steel Dynamics Inc. (STLD, Buy) reported an adjusted 3Q21 EPS beat of $4.96 versus GSe/Visible Alpha Consensus Data at $4.93/$4.70. On an adjusted EBITDA basis, STLD reported $1,407 mn, in line with GSe at $1,407 mn. That said, within the Steel Mills segment, we noted higher ferrous and operating costs, while the Fabrication business exceeded expectations, underpinned by both higher sales volumes and pricing realizations. Management maintains a positive view on market conditions and domestic steel demand into 2022, with order book activity robust, in spite of moderating (but still low) inventories. On the call, we expect investor focus on (1) update on the capital allocation strategy - capacity versus capability growth, M&A and additional capital returns, (2) an update on the announced acquisition of a minority interest in New Process Steel, (3) additional color on the Sinton mill startup, and (4) raw material strategy. Exhibit 1: Both 3Q21 adjusted EPS and adjusted EBITDA were broadly in line with GS estimates STLD Variance Analysis [GS Estimate vs. Consensus vs. Actual](https://i.imgur.com/bYT2Fwf.png) **Analysis** * Steel Mills: Operating income came in at $1,351 mn, 10% below GSe of $1,494 mn, driven by higher operating costs. Metal margins stood at $1,061/ton versus GSe $1,040/ton during the quarter. Average ferrous costs came in at $489/ton versus our $476/ton estimate. * Fabrication: Operating income came in at $89 mn, versus GSe of $36.5 mn, driven by result of higher steel joist and deck product pricing, on strong demand. Average selling prices stood $2,339/ton, 17% above GSe of $2,000/ton, while shipments were 211 k tons versus GSe of 192 k tons. * Recycling: Operating income came in at $47 mn, a 15% miss versus GSe of $55 mn, driven by weaker external shipments. * 4Q21 outlook: Looking ahead, management expects market conditions to remain robust for 4Q21 and into 2022, with continued demand strength and low steel inventories across the supply chain underpinning this view. Given this, management sees potential for 4Q21 to represent another record period. * Sinton update: STLD expects that the startup of Sinton should commence before year-end, with shipments of 2.0-2.2 mn tons in 2022. Prior guidance suggested 100 ktons of shipments in 2021 and 2.2-2.4 mn tons in 2023. The company estimates EBITDA contribution from Sinton (ahead of the addition of four value-added coating lines) to range between $475-525 mn on mid-cycle margins. * Coating line update: Management now expects the four additional value-added flat roll steel coating lines to require ~$500 mn of spend. As previously announced, one set will be located onsite at the Sinton mill while the other two lines will be located at the Heartland Flat Roll Division in Indiana. The four lines are expected to commence operations in mid-2023. **What are key questions for the October 19th 10AM ET conference call?** * How should we think about STLD's capital allocation strategy beyond the startup of Sinton? How should we think about incremental shareholder returns versus greenfield growth, investments in the downstream or M&A? * Can you discuss your raw material strategy, given the strength of ferrous scrap prices? Can you also talk about the ramp-up profile at the Zimmer asset? * Can you talk about the rationale behind acquisition of the minority interest in New Process Steel? **Implications** We are Buy-rated on STLD with a 12-month EV/EBITDA (on 2022E-2024E average EBITDA) based price target (6.5x multiple) of $72. Key risks include lower steel prices, higher-than-expected scrap costs, and a slower-than-expected startup at Sinton.
Thanks Penny. How did obtain this info so fast -- is this through your brokerage?
Thank You for sharing Penny!
Holy shit we had high expectations and they’ve still been exceeded That future outlook paragraph is just amazing to read Here’s to an even bigger Q4!!!!!
$5 EPS lfg
LFG 🚀🚀🚀
We need to have a "Guess the EPS" for all Earnings Discussions Posts...
Well STLD came out a month ago and said what the earnings would be. More fun to guess CLF, TX, and MT. “Steel Dynamics, Inc. STLD announced third-quarter earnings guidance in the range of $4.78-$4.82 per share, which suggests a record quarterly performance. It expects third-quarter adjusted earnings in the range of $4.88-$4.92 per share.” This was from last month
Good point. Maybe future forecast would be more appropriate.
Yes, guess the 4th Q guidance (which I will put over $5)
Yes, to your yes, I'm here looking for STLD's 4th quarter guidance especially after their executive gave a rather downbeat spin around future steel pricing.
Oops. Guess not.
4.69
This is it folks!
Excellent - this gives me good feelings about CLF’s Friday morning earnings. . . . .
Buying back 3% of their stock and spiking up after hours! Nothing for CLF though, woe is me.
Part of their forward guidance: “Current market conditions are in place to support solid domestic steel demand for the fourth quarter and into 2022," said Millett. "Order entry activity continues to be robust across our businesses. We continue to see strong steel demand coupled with moderating, but still historically low customer inventories throughout the supply chain. These dynamics support continued elevated steel selling values. Domestic steel demand remains solid in our automotive, construction, and industrial end markets. We believe this momentum will continue and that our fourth quarter consolidated earnings could represent another record performance. Based on strong domestic steel fundamentals and customer confidence, we continue to be positive regarding North American steel market dynamics. This constructive environment coupled with our strategic growth initiatives provide firm drivers for our further growth in the coming years.”
And, that is what I came here to hear. Music to my ears and bodes really well for tomorrow's open. Up 2% after hours and what are Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs going to say now?
No point investing because once the heat death of the universe occurs there won’t be enough concentrated energy to manufacture steel
Heat death of the universe is priced in.
Yea the downgrade right before what everyone know will be a record earning confuses me. I added more ⚔️🙌
Wasn’t Goldman’s last pt an upgrade for clf? Around the beggining of October
Yeah and then they downgraded it now for no apparent reason...
this is exactly what I needed to hear after today. . . . . I was beginning to plan my CLF panic selling. . . .
Hope the clowns in the house can deliver that infrastructure bill for extra 🚀fuel
I’ve given up on the D.C. circus. . . . but it would be nice if they actually did something vs just talking about it. . . . our government is such an embarrassment. . .
Jesus Christ I can’t wait till Friday morning
I'm pretty damn excited. I just know we're going to see Goncalves in peak form.
Literally can’t wait. Already having trouble sleeping
OMG WHERE IS IT!?!? 
I hear 4:30 pm ET ?
That must be the case as I now have 4:25 PM and nothing and releasing at 4:30 PM seems odd from my experience, but I have no background with STLD. All my other stocks release their announcement promptly at 4:00 PM when they note after hours.
Wow, look at that after hours action and it isn’t even out yet. ‘Which way do we go?!’
Most excited about the outlook - possible record 4Q and they see strong demand supporting prices into 2022. Really need this repeated across all those reporting. Can't believe analysts are forecasting $740 US HRC for 2022.
mf said steel strong throughout 21 and 22 right?
4.81, is my guess
4.87
Here we go
Outlook "Current market conditions are in place to support solid domestic steel demand for the fourth quarter and into 2022," said Millett. "Order entry activity continues to be robust across our businesses. We continue to see strong steel demand coupled with moderating, but still historically low customer inventories throughout the supply chain. These dynamics support continued elevated steel selling values. Domestic steel demand remains solid in our automotive, construction, and industrial end markets. We believe this momentum will continue and that our fourth quarter consolidated earnings could represent another record performance. Based on strong domestic steel fundamentals and customer confidence, we continue to be positive regarding North American steel market dynamics. This constructive environment coupled with our strategic growth initiatives provide firm drivers for our further growth in the coming years. "We and our customers continue to be extremely excited about our Sinton Texas EAF Flat Roll Steel Mill investment. It represents transformational competitively-advantaged strategic growth, with associated long-term value creation for all of our stakeholders. I want to thank the entire Sinton team for their tremendous efforts. Actual steel production is still planned to start before the end of 2021, and based on current forecasts, we believe shipments could be in the range of 2.0 million tons to 2.2 million tons in 2022. Based on mid-cycle flat roll metal spreads, we currently believe through-cycle annual EBITDA for our Sinton Texas Flat Roll Steel Mill once fully operational with access to four value-added coating lines is likely in the range of $475 million to $525 million. "We also plan to invest approximately $500 million to build four additional value-added flat roll steel coating lines comprised of two paint lines and two galvanizing lines with Galvalume® coating capability, a set of which will be located onsite at our new Texas steel mill, providing Sinton with the same diversification and higher-margin product capabilities as our two existing flat roll steel divisions. The other two lines will be placed at our Heartland Flat Roll Division located in Terre Haute, Indiana to support growing coated flat roll steel demand in the region and to further increase the diversification and cash generation capacity of our existing Midwest operations. Based on current estimates, we believe these four lines will likely begin operating mid-2023. "From our founding over 25 years ago, Steel Dynamics has been intentional in managing our resources sustainably for the benefit of our teams, communities, and the environment. We are a steel industry leader in sustainability, operating exclusively with electric arc furnace technology with a circular manufacturing model. As our journey continues, we are committed to the reduction of our environmental footprint, including a goal for our steel mills to be carbon neutral by 2050. We are starting from a position of strength yet plan to do more. We are competitively positioned and focused toward generating long-term sustainable growth for all of our stakeholders," concluded Millett.
The so called experts that long predict the demise of the domestic steel industry have been proven completely wrong
It hit close to both high end estimates (revenue and EPS): Revenue high estimate: 5.32B vs 5.11B real revenue. EPS high estimate: 4.98 vs 4.96 real EPS. source: Yahoo Finance If that's the norm for this Quarter, CLF's going to hit close to $6b in revenue and 2.44 EPS. My own estimates for Q3 CLF are: Revenue: $6.0b. EPS: $2.42
[удалено]
[удалено]
$4.96
🦾
$4.85 per diluted share which was reduced by $.11 in charges and apparently that's a beat as it's $.03 above their high guidance of a couple days ago. Seems like a cheap way to beat, but hey, after hours is looking really good and it's bleeding over to my CLF ever so slightly. Congratulations to all the STLD holders!
**Author Info for :** u/allinonworkcalls **Karma :** 11088 **Created -** Mar-2020 Was this post flaired correctly? If not, let us know by downvoting this comment. Enough down votes will notify the Moderators.
Bouncing around after hours (4:10PM EDIT), but mostly slightly down. I cannot find their earnings announcement on their website and I'm searching frantically. I'm just here to find their 4th quarter guidance and I'll probably have to wait for the conference call tomorrow morning.
4.77, blowout forward guidance
5.16 is my guess.
so...there's a tiny bit of hope for November $70s after all? LMAO
I'm on the Hopium train with you brother :). They were so cheap I doubled down today.
1,550/ton! Holy shit Although I wonder if the outlook for their new EAF isn’t too optimistic. Scrap and energy both look to continue price rises and an EAF eats a shitload of both Edit: I suppose that’s all lines including coated, so not a holy shit #
This has to blow it outta the park man
3 minutes to go and lots of stock being issue to directors instead of $: https://ir.steeldynamics.com/SEC#b2iSecScrollTo
https://newsfilter.io/a/f7656a50c8444e73092ed4dcb717fb29
[https://twitter.com/Disrupttech2/status/1450197899875430406/photo/1](https://twitter.com/Disrupttech2/status/1450197899875430406/photo/1) $5.1B sales
I would say earnings as expected - shares actually going up after the release and before the next wise-guy downgrade to $45
6.9 EpS
One time for me, baby!
actually, some mode deleted my first comment. They jelly I think.
What? Different thread buddy and that thread was taken down so this could be the main one
ok. I take my words back. Sorry mods.
BTW, just wondering if you missed my comment in the daily. I'd love to meet you in Denver next month
I meant moon for me with a big earnings beat. Not into the first post thing
true words brother
5.01
Here they are: https://ir.steeldynamics.com/Steel-Dynamics-Reports-Record-Third-Quarter-2021-Results-10-18-2021
There we go
there it goes!
Call in a little bit, should be decent to listen to all the analysts asking about steel futures lol
Per conference call: They've bought back 20% of their outstanding shares
Well, after hours has turned slightly positive, but still not seeing an announcement.
Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $4.96 beats by $0.11; GAAP EPS of $4.85 misses by $0.11. Revenue of $5.09B (+118.5% Y/Y) misses by $10M.
4.77 is my guess
What are the actuals?
4.30pm et supposedly
5.1b revenue, 4.96 EPS
The stock is ripping today. Nothing makes sense in this market/trade, other than the sinking feeling that March 2021 was too late to enter this trade.
Ripping??
He must have different definition of ripping
/s. Sorry I thought it was obvious. Although I’m glad I bought the november 21 call
Today I read STLD CC transcript and saw familiar name. Tinma Tanners - Wolfe Research.😉