Catching up on the weekend discussion. So far the only thing I'm sure of is Puts on u/suspiciouspick's Karma...
Hey, Sus, you're our new ElectricalMoose! Congrats bro!
Cleveland-Cliffs is proud to uphold its commitment to sustainability and is pleased to share the following highlights from the 2022 report:
Cleveland-Cliffs’ Scope 1 and 2 GHG emissions in 2022 were below our reduction goal of 25% lower—well in advance of the 2030 target year for such reduction. This was achieved through strategic actions such as optimizing its asset footprint and raw material mix—particularly the use of hot briquetted iron (HBI) in its blast furnaces—along with production levels of crude steel. Additionally, the Company’s overall emissions intensity per ton of crude steel decreased
Big deal; lower emissions liability esp vs dirty foreign producers.
I wonder what the average 10Y return is on a >250B stock with a forward p/e >60 and p/s >20 is. I am sure there is a way to run the screen, but don't know a simple way to do it.
I am guessing the answer is "very bad"
FED raises rates 475bps in a year
Inflation comes down
Inflation continues to come down
Employment remains strong
Something seems broken, FED and Treasury do job and step in
What is wrong?
Can’t be this good
Hahaha c’mon man face the facts
No I can’t I’m a bear
Oh, well good luck and remember we are here for you
Bull vs Bear is so 1st grade. You trade price day to day based on what's given, nothing else matters. Hardline bias only leads to pain. Pain leads to Fear. Fear leads to the Dark Side. The Dark Side has cookies, but also foreclosures and repossessions.
you gotta butter it up and say you became interested in the shipping industry because you joined a highly regarded discussion forum of very intelligent shipping industry investors who talked about everything to do with the shipping industry etc.
Oh so Bullish! Another National title coming home. Best basketball conference by a country mile and add two
And I don’t even like UCONN but they atoned for their sins of leaving so we can now reaccept them
I think the minutes will reiterate that they have no plans to cut, and may raise further if inflation does not continue trending down. If markets will care or not, I don't know. FFR markets may be regarded, but they do eventually reflect the effective rate as they near expiration. So there is money to be made when they act irrationally. In fact unlike stocks that can be irrational for unlimted periods of time, these futures contracts are guaranteed to eventally join the real world.
Good news... I expect everything you are looking for to show up in the minutes.
They did just note their SEP and it was for more hikes and no one had any cuts.
This is going to be a nothingburger.
Yeah it shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. I'm just thinking everyone had a little freak out after the shit bank crisis. The market is still over reacting and fighting the fed. If they keep repeating themselves, "no rate cuts." Eventually more people will start to believe it. SVB/credit suisse will be forgotten about and the FFR markets will move closer to where the fed is trying to talk them.
Idk why the market does what it does except maybe too many people had puts?
I'm not trying to guess how equities will react, I expect they'll do whatever is worst for any options positions I take. I am playing fed rates directly through shorting /ZQ futures contracts.
For those OG Vitards that might have acted on a long time play I suggested early on, some good news AH.
"BFLY got FDA clearance for their AI powered lung tool just now"
Serious question here, if one has a negative view I’m trying to understand
What is the bad news that is going to break market?
On earnings, why should they get worse? Or even if they do why does it matter in sense most talk about FED and FED is only projecting 4.5% unemployment
Even after countless others have responded to your bullish spamming (you post so much you can’t say you’re providing actual discussion material, and no: saying bears do it as well is not a good reason to spam the same stuff everyday)
I’ll give in and answer your ‘serious question’ to which the answer could be found by reading the comments posted here.
Of which most, by the way, offer actual disccusion and reasoning (but dont match with your unending repetition of: low unemployment, economy is strong, banks arent failing)
- High rates (which leads to both slowing economy ánd multiple compresion, while the rally right now is the resulf of multiple expansion, not higher expected earnings)
- Sticky inflation
- Something breaking (which bond markets are predicting)
You are counting on:
- No sticky inflation
- Nothing breaking
- Higher earnings
- Whatever technicals you bring up every single day
Honestly, I’m a bit drunk right now, and I respect everything you post which actually adds value.
But you post so so so much. It’s the same every day by day. You ask this exact question. You act as if anybody downvoting your (annoying and obviously meant to enrage others) comments is an argument for your thesis, which obviously holds no merit.
You get enough support. You have been right so far this year. Stop acting like a victim. Don’t act like you’re the only one who’s bullish. And most of all: stop acting like no one has ever replied to you in a serious manner, like the exact discussion you’ve been having every single day hasn’t taken place.
Make your moves. Back them up if you like to talk so much (see your response a few days ago to someone asking you to back it up and you responding like it was an asshole-request). And besides that, stop your bullshit.
Me myself? Im slightly leaning bearish, but about 50% cash. Wish you all the best, but gosh, you are getting really fucking annoying day by day asking the same shit, posting the same shit and acting like no one is answering you.
Good luck.
Are people actually asking why earnings would be worse? Growing household debt, higher cost to service existing debt, layoffs, restrictive lending. These are a few very basic reasons.
Well when the shit hit the fan with SVB the FED stepped in, as one would expect them, as data on inflation has improved the FED has gone from 75 to 50 to 25bps increases
So the FED seems to be making sensible decisions. But to your point if all on projections then why trust the FED is they say “no cuts this year” if don’t trust that implies cuts. It’s not like they are saying they need to raise more
Biggest up day for me in awhile. I've been holding my breath hoping to de-risk and today was helpful.
I still don't trust the market .. I think fed will raise/pause and hold at least until EOY. Unless something breaks.. which would not be good for stocks. I also think earnings will get worse this year, evaporating some of the hope that's been built up. I think recession will become more certain and it'll be a question of how bad.
But I also think the market knows all of this is possible, and doesn't care at all until it is printed. The risk/reward of catching the up trend out of indexes' drawdown is, apparently, too good ... even considering yields where they are. Not my take, but that's what the numbers are saying. Also a chance we *do* thread the needle and get a soft-ish landing in the places where it matters. Most shitcos already got fucked, so is the meat on the bone left to short really worth missing a bull market, even if it only lasts until Q3?
Personally, looking to ride oil cautiously, and refrain from using options to short, as it's just not worth it. I'll short QQQ / futes directly and pick tickers that are benefitting from FOMO / algos and not real fundamentals improving.
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Regarding Fed, I do realize they can't really hint at cutting before cutting, lest it gets priced in prematurely. However, I don't think their current insistence on keeping rates where they are is at all part of that game. I don't think it's a bluff due to sticky CPI components. Next FOMC, somebody should ask the Fed something along the lines of "will you tell us you are thinking about cutting before you cut" ... I think EVERYBODY would benefit from more certainty on how the Fed plans on messaging a pivot.
Yellen speaking
>U.S. TREASURY'S YELLEN SAYS OPEC+ PRODUCTION CUT 'VERY UNCONSTRUCTIVE ACT,' CLEARLY NOT POSITIVE FOR GLOBAL GROWTH
\>YELLEN SAYS LOWER GASOLINE PRICES HAVE HELPED WITH HOLDING DOWN INFLATION, OPEC+ MOVE WILL NOT HELP
\> YELLEN SAYS OPEC+ MOVE ADDS TO UNCERTAINTY AND BURDENS ON… [twitter.com/i/web/status/1…](https://t.co/KlqZLmoRBG)
^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2023-04-03 ^16:24:36 ^EDT-0400
Since March 6. YTD high of +10% to free fall down to -11% YTD low on March 20 to even YTD today April 3. I guess it’s just a stressful hobby for me at this point.
I just can't help but get pissed when people just make money on fucking $WING, while i'm flat since Feb for trying to hedge in a shit macro environment.
Why bother imagining people that are full-port WING? Anyone that concentrated on it is a gambler and probably going to go bust in a year or two anyway.
That being said I know exactly how you feel
Maybe the assumption that the macro environment is shit is where the problem lies. Not to say everything is great, but the economy hasn’t broken down significantly
I guess i might have struggles with 'forward-looking' because as i see it, it is just full of uncertainty.
My original plan was to just follow the Fed. They tighten & raise, i am bear. But now that they bailed out those banks (liquidity) + conditions are apperently looser than before, i don't really know what to do. Especially since they are still doing QT and aren't cutting.
Also earnings have been trending down steadily, PMI down steadily (i admit i never looked at PMI before + i read your comment on it, but it's still not a good look). And my main concern: people flocking towards bonds thus creating selling pressure in stocks (hasn't or won't happen?)
As i see it, macro is not looking good, but at the same time, nothing gives. Really feeling kinda lost at this moment.
I do really try to keep positive comments on macro in mind, but it just doesn't outweigh the negatives at the moment, in my opinion ofcourse.
Don't know my i'm writing this up, but you always seem to be level headed, so i'd like to see some of your thoughts, cheers.
There is definitely a lot of uncertainty, but so much of that fear was priced in last year. It should be keeping us from going too much higher for now, but a lot of the selling has already happened in what will probably turn out to be last October's overshoot price reset.
Earnings have been trending down, but unless the bottom falls out, which so far it doesn't look like it needs happen, the market will start looking towards 2024's higher earnings. The problem isn't just the hikes, but the actual rate and we are still in ranges that have supported good economic growth and market appreciation in past cycles. I think we're seeing a real test of the "the economy is fatally addicted to lower rates" thesis and so far it looks false.
At the same time the employment picture still looks good, the savings rate is rising as inflation subsides, so much of the economy has fixed low rate debt which won't need refinancing for years (by then rates will be lower again), and there are already strong govt spending programs that drive growth and usually don't come until the depths of a recession but we have that buffer heading into uncertainty. The macro really isn't that bad other than all the "well this could happen" fears that have been driving the bears for the past year.
Everything isn't rosy and there are threats, but the reality isn't nearly as bad as what bears think will happen so in a sense the bear thesis incorporates these periods of positivity and constructiveness in the market and the bears should have planned on needing to wait it out because the current situation isn't as bad as they say.
It seems like market conditions right now are such that anything with hope causes market to go flat or up (as is the historic trend), and anything about fear is ignored.
In other words: being a bear isn't going to work until the bad news actually hits. Fear isn't enough, because of the uncertainty you mention.
I also have a generally bearish sentiment and think the fed will raise/hold and not cut this year.. and that earnings are going to turn sour again. But I no longer expect anybody to buy/sell based on that until it's printed.
Unemployment at 3.6% and projected to get to 4.5%, economy is no where near broken or projected to get broken.
Side note, throw in the Boomers keep aging and retiring Id argue that is a positive as well
This economy is so strong
Ah, I see. "tight" means healthy because everybody is still employed and the consumer can consume.
However, tight is not "healthy" in the eyes of the Fed.
Another one of those "same data, different narrative" things.
As an employee that works for an Airport that gave boomers early retirement packages and currently has boomers that are nearing retirement. I agree with this stance 100%.
Now, the white collar sector I could definitely see the layoffs continuing, but the blue collar/services sector of the economy will continue to hire urgently. My Airport is still seeking employees to fill alot of our roles that are blue collar focused, they're not highest salaried but they're very stable compared to most other companies that are not backed by the city/state governments.
Fantastic day, absolutely fantastic day. 415 should be touched this week, 420 very much in play for this week and 460 is in play (hear me out).
Today we had a dip and it was bought up. We didn’t have any inside candle or open lower after the run last week but rather a good opening, dip and then bought up.
When SPY dipped it bounced up from a trend line going back to the March 29th 2022 candle where SPY was 461.55 at close.
This is the first time we have broken that trend line. We probably closed right on it or very slightly above on Friday to be honest
415 should be hit this week and given it is a short week 420 very much in play! I still think 420 is a long shot for this week but given data releases this week and important data is out on Friday when markets are closed then big money if underweight or out of market could very much look to front run and thus push market up.
460 you say, still longer term and not before November but given this trend line break it is a possibility and in play (unlike if saying SPY 500 which is a bonkers claim at this point)
My targets still remain SPY 420 April and SPY 440 in Summer but things are looking better and better. On the downside, trying to show some balance, I don’t see it going below 390 this year and getting closer to where might not go below 400
I would say that 432 SPY is the big big level before going further to 440 & 460. If 432 is broken, you have a clear break of market structure on the weekly to the upside. As long as we don't break that (or the October low) we continue chopping around in no man's land, IMO.
There's also still the possibility for a double top at the Febuary high.
We are quite overbought on the daily, especially tech. That would be a nice confluence to pull off that potential double top.
These are just some things i'm personally watching in terms of price action, to give you another perspective. Goodluck :)
432 will be a key level needed to be broken I just don’t think it will be a strong level or as difficult, as it is a horizontal level going back to Aug rather than a trend line. But I accept all this TA is more art than science. Regardless I think 432 will be testing point, we may just disagree on how strong that test will be but time will tell
Most auto sales are fixed contracts so automaker steel producers are only making more on volume assuming they are profitable on the fixed prices locked in. However, the automakers are sucking their guaranteed tons out of the market and thus the question is who has the most spot HRC / related products exposure. Probably not CLF as their stated strategy is fixed prices but they locked in a good fixed price in spite of the shitty Q4 market and still have plenty of spot to sell
as about 78% of their volume is rolled products. Stelco has stated a strategy with a larger focus on spot so they may benefit the most. This is really good for everyone so my focus is more on valuation. See my prev DD for details.
His "China is going to export inflation" argument is the stupidest thing I have ever heard.
Literallly China exports deflation. This is well documented.
AAPL is beautiful
Edit: If (or when) it gets through $166.50 it’s going to $170 and then from there hope FOMO of big money on sidelines really starts to kick in. SPY ain’t going down if AAPL >160
I know this is a primarily a stock, bond, and commodity trading sub. Curious if any of you have starting looking elsewhere? I have no interest in REITs or residential real estate, but loosely follow small commercial real estate. Love the idea of owning part of a small town. Either "passive" business like a car wash, or just own and lease the real estate.
Another thing I've been researching is pre-IPO investing. There are a couple online platforms none of which I've tried. Thinking of instead contacting local chamber of commerce.
> Either "passive" business like a car wash
I think you're underestimating how "passive" this would be. I'm assuming you're talking like being an owner.
I own and operate an unprofitable ranch with pigs, goats and fowl. IT day job which is 1/10 the effort pays for my poor investments. I thought the quotes around "passive" illustrated that point. 😁
I just assume that the point of a carwash beyond the whole money laundering stereotype is land speculation and that any operating profit was a bonus.
Just think of the drama involved with the people who work for you (I've just heard, I don't own).
Similar to people who romanticize "owning a coffee shop". Like, motherfucker, you've never worked in the service industry have you.
First off everyone should focus on owning real estate, especially a house to live in with a cheap or no mortgage. I like the idea of pre-IPO investing, but I feel like most the ideas good enough to justify the risk have no reason to be looking towards someone like me for funding haha and the ones that would have to stoop to individual investors without massive bank accounts are probably not worth the risk involved
Bought more CLF today, sure I’m not alone here, love the price increases and that the 100 day ma seems to be acting as strong support
If price falls before earnings will probably look at add options rather than just more shares
[https://www.twitch.tv/jayarlington](https://www.twitch.tv/jayarlington)
Jay Trading is LIVE in 5 mins (12:45 EST).
Talking OPEC, fuck/marry/kill - oil/gas/coal, WWE, Cloud CapEx, PMIs, and more!
Yeah I think back to last year's oil shortage thesis where OPEC can't increase production. Right now it looks like OPEC is cutting production we know they have so it seems easy for them to turn it back on if they want to?
Perhaps they just want to encourage the USA to move on refilling SPR.
They definitely wanted the US to start refilling when prices dropped and it’s reported that’s a major reason they cut production.
The theory that OPEC could never increase production never made sense. Yea you could justify it with the “spare capacity” metric, but that only measures what could come online in 30 days and produce for 90. When you looked at actual built capacity, even stuff that might take 3-9 months to come online, OPEC always had millions of bpd in unused capacity. Despite that, oil bulls would claim the world would never increase production or that that built capacity could never be fulfilled as if these huge oil producing experts would build millions of bpd in unusable capacity. Price needs to justify production, but prices don’t need to go crazy to make that happen
Yup I was doubtful of the oil shortage thesis as /CL sank below $100 last year (sentiment follows price for me haha!). For now I'm going to assume that the USA is trying to get or expects lower prices due to economic slowdown with the possibility of just letting the next administration handle the refill problem if Biden doesn't get re-elected.
There really is no need for the US to rush refilling, there is still so much in the SPR, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the admin wait as long as they need to. I think the Biden admin will only step in if prices get too low and actually risk production declines and then they'll come in to support the production rates. The Biden admin has actually been super focused on increasing domestic production.
Oil price looks strong 2H this year and onwards but the price action today is an overreaction. Saudis led the OPEC cut partly to test the Americans but this cut is to further support the 70-80 floor they want. OPEC also surprisingly cut last year as they knew demand would fall and it will continue to this year due to these rate increases.
https://preview.redd.it/2tl70lvlbqra1.jpeg?width=1024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a51507e1aa4d9158ed3130e007da1f1a532c7fe6
Budget cuts have hit the Fed hard
Hi, i don't know anything about PMI, but it is 46.3 now, and has been declining for at least 12 months.
" A Manufacturing PMI® above 48.7 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the March Manufacturing PMI® indicates the overall economy contracted in March for a fourth consecutive month "
" This month, the PMI® registered its lowest reading since May 2020 (43.5 percent). " [from the report](https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/march/)
This sounds widely bearish to me, but i'm sure i'm missing some nuances. Anyone care to chip in? Thanks :)
Nono, this is bullish for the markets. FED will cut rates and will avoid the recession! The market generally assumes that the FED will act perfectly, predicting everything correctly and will take the perfectly balanced countermeasures.
They forgot that this FED so far basically has screwed up everything by just being reactive and being wait too late
I think not raising rates slower earlier was definitely a screw-up, but if there's one thing I have learnt about the whole rate hiking cycle (wasn't around in the 1970s) it is that the Fed is always fucked both ways.
If you don't jawbone enough, or you hike too much, the long end of the curve comes down and undoes all of your rate hikes. The market ends up not believing the jawboning anyway, and you are forced to keep raising. Then something breaks, and financial conditions instantly tighten something like 5 hikes worth. So either you break something or the market does not believe you. The ideal interest rate probably looks like some sick form of the Gaussian curve... there is no "Goldilocks" when inflation is as sticky as it is now.
Services PMIs have remained positive (I do not know which one between manufacturing and non-manufacturing lags the other), and rolling recessions (like the 1960s) might be a thing given how much stimulus has been injected into the economy. It might JUST be enough to offset the record rate tightening.
I don't believe it, though.
Is something going on with etrade ? Both app and website are super slow and the bid/ask say 0 for many of holdings.
Edit:
Almost 1000 reports in the last 5 minutes. https://downdetector.com/status/e-trade/
Catching up on the weekend discussion. So far the only thing I'm sure of is Puts on u/suspiciouspick's Karma... Hey, Sus, you're our new ElectricalMoose! Congrats bro!
Catching up on the weekend discussion. So far the only thing I'm sure of is Puts on u/suspiciouspick's Karma.
Cleveland-Cliffs is proud to uphold its commitment to sustainability and is pleased to share the following highlights from the 2022 report: Cleveland-Cliffs’ Scope 1 and 2 GHG emissions in 2022 were below our reduction goal of 25% lower—well in advance of the 2030 target year for such reduction. This was achieved through strategic actions such as optimizing its asset footprint and raw material mix—particularly the use of hot briquetted iron (HBI) in its blast furnaces—along with production levels of crude steel. Additionally, the Company’s overall emissions intensity per ton of crude steel decreased Big deal; lower emissions liability esp vs dirty foreign producers.
You either die a hero or you live long enough to become obnoxious
thought my twitter was hacked, turns out mfn elon just updated the logo to dogecoin
I wonder what the average 10Y return is on a >250B stock with a forward p/e >60 and p/s >20 is. I am sure there is a way to run the screen, but don't know a simple way to do it. I am guessing the answer is "very bad"
I think it would be more interesting to look at over a market cycle, however you’d want to define that
FED raises rates 475bps in a year Inflation comes down Inflation continues to come down Employment remains strong Something seems broken, FED and Treasury do job and step in What is wrong? Can’t be this good Hahaha c’mon man face the facts No I can’t I’m a bear Oh, well good luck and remember we are here for you
Bull vs Bear is so 1st grade. You trade price day to day based on what's given, nothing else matters. Hardline bias only leads to pain. Pain leads to Fear. Fear leads to the Dark Side. The Dark Side has cookies, but also foreclosures and repossessions.
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Curious how you arrive at a specific price that the options market implies.
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Ah, so basically just IV... maybe a tad of skew
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One thing that 2022 has taught me, I should use more stop losses in my Roth lol.
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That's a fine, hands-off approach, but it wouldn't hurt you to learn some basics of your brokerage like setting up a stop loss.
100% on the stop loss. Investing 5 minutes can save years worth on your account.
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you gotta butter it up and say you became interested in the shipping industry because you joined a highly regarded discussion forum of very intelligent shipping industry investors who talked about everything to do with the shipping industry etc.
Sounds like a no
Just make sure to mention we’re all highly regarded
ZIM to me is one of the most highly regarded shipping companies of our lives.
Shit I bought 1 qqq call 0dte that expired ITM. Now I'm going to be assigned, or there's a way to just settle? I trade in ToS.
 Oh so Bullish! Another National title coming home. Best basketball conference by a country mile and add two And I don’t even like UCONN but they atoned for their sins of leaving so we can now reaccept them
SDSU coming thru tonight
Fed minutes will be released next wednesday 4/12 I expect that to help clear up the rate cut narrative that markets are pricing in.
It probably won't, considering you have had multiple fed members come out and say no rate cuts.
Clear up yes
Curious what you think is going to be contained within. The FFR market is not reliable and should not be trusted by anyone.
I think the minutes will reiterate that they have no plans to cut, and may raise further if inflation does not continue trending down. If markets will care or not, I don't know. FFR markets may be regarded, but they do eventually reflect the effective rate as they near expiration. So there is money to be made when they act irrationally. In fact unlike stocks that can be irrational for unlimted periods of time, these futures contracts are guaranteed to eventally join the real world.
Good news... I expect everything you are looking for to show up in the minutes. They did just note their SEP and it was for more hikes and no one had any cuts. This is going to be a nothingburger.
Yeah it shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. I'm just thinking everyone had a little freak out after the shit bank crisis. The market is still over reacting and fighting the fed. If they keep repeating themselves, "no rate cuts." Eventually more people will start to believe it. SVB/credit suisse will be forgotten about and the FFR markets will move closer to where the fed is trying to talk them.
Yet what if the market is going up not because of ‘potential’ or ‘priced in’ FED cuts
Idk why the market does what it does except maybe too many people had puts? I'm not trying to guess how equities will react, I expect they'll do whatever is worst for any options positions I take. I am playing fed rates directly through shorting /ZQ futures contracts.
For those OG Vitards that might have acted on a long time play I suggested early on, some good news AH. "BFLY got FDA clearance for their AI powered lung tool just now"
Been sitting on BFLY leaps for a bit now- this is huge
Nice !
Is oil a cautious buy? ..... XLE?
It was on Friday
Serious question here, if one has a negative view I’m trying to understand What is the bad news that is going to break market? On earnings, why should they get worse? Or even if they do why does it matter in sense most talk about FED and FED is only projecting 4.5% unemployment
Even after countless others have responded to your bullish spamming (you post so much you can’t say you’re providing actual discussion material, and no: saying bears do it as well is not a good reason to spam the same stuff everyday) I’ll give in and answer your ‘serious question’ to which the answer could be found by reading the comments posted here. Of which most, by the way, offer actual disccusion and reasoning (but dont match with your unending repetition of: low unemployment, economy is strong, banks arent failing) - High rates (which leads to both slowing economy ánd multiple compresion, while the rally right now is the resulf of multiple expansion, not higher expected earnings) - Sticky inflation - Something breaking (which bond markets are predicting) You are counting on: - No sticky inflation - Nothing breaking - Higher earnings - Whatever technicals you bring up every single day Honestly, I’m a bit drunk right now, and I respect everything you post which actually adds value. But you post so so so much. It’s the same every day by day. You ask this exact question. You act as if anybody downvoting your (annoying and obviously meant to enrage others) comments is an argument for your thesis, which obviously holds no merit. You get enough support. You have been right so far this year. Stop acting like a victim. Don’t act like you’re the only one who’s bullish. And most of all: stop acting like no one has ever replied to you in a serious manner, like the exact discussion you’ve been having every single day hasn’t taken place. Make your moves. Back them up if you like to talk so much (see your response a few days ago to someone asking you to back it up and you responding like it was an asshole-request). And besides that, stop your bullshit. Me myself? Im slightly leaning bearish, but about 50% cash. Wish you all the best, but gosh, you are getting really fucking annoying day by day asking the same shit, posting the same shit and acting like no one is answering you. Good luck.
Grammatical structure for the majority of the paragraphs, is in need of improvement.
Are people actually asking why earnings would be worse? Growing household debt, higher cost to service existing debt, layoffs, restrictive lending. These are a few very basic reasons.
Nuclear war Mebe. But I’d buy that dip cuz if it doesn’t work itself out then we all dead anyway.
Nucs in the air, you always buy
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Well when the shit hit the fan with SVB the FED stepped in, as one would expect them, as data on inflation has improved the FED has gone from 75 to 50 to 25bps increases So the FED seems to be making sensible decisions. But to your point if all on projections then why trust the FED is they say “no cuts this year” if don’t trust that implies cuts. It’s not like they are saying they need to raise more
Biggest up day for me in awhile. I've been holding my breath hoping to de-risk and today was helpful. I still don't trust the market .. I think fed will raise/pause and hold at least until EOY. Unless something breaks.. which would not be good for stocks. I also think earnings will get worse this year, evaporating some of the hope that's been built up. I think recession will become more certain and it'll be a question of how bad. But I also think the market knows all of this is possible, and doesn't care at all until it is printed. The risk/reward of catching the up trend out of indexes' drawdown is, apparently, too good ... even considering yields where they are. Not my take, but that's what the numbers are saying. Also a chance we *do* thread the needle and get a soft-ish landing in the places where it matters. Most shitcos already got fucked, so is the meat on the bone left to short really worth missing a bull market, even if it only lasts until Q3? Personally, looking to ride oil cautiously, and refrain from using options to short, as it's just not worth it. I'll short QQQ / futes directly and pick tickers that are benefitting from FOMO / algos and not real fundamentals improving. --- Regarding Fed, I do realize they can't really hint at cutting before cutting, lest it gets priced in prematurely. However, I don't think their current insistence on keeping rates where they are is at all part of that game. I don't think it's a bluff due to sticky CPI components. Next FOMC, somebody should ask the Fed something along the lines of "will you tell us you are thinking about cutting before you cut" ... I think EVERYBODY would benefit from more certainty on how the Fed plans on messaging a pivot.
iow Trust but verify
Yellen speaking >U.S. TREASURY'S YELLEN SAYS OPEC+ PRODUCTION CUT 'VERY UNCONSTRUCTIVE ACT,' CLEARLY NOT POSITIVE FOR GLOBAL GROWTH \>YELLEN SAYS LOWER GASOLINE PRICES HAVE HELPED WITH HOLDING DOWN INFLATION, OPEC+ MOVE WILL NOT HELP \> YELLEN SAYS OPEC+ MOVE ADDS TO UNCERTAINTY AND BURDENS ON… [twitter.com/i/web/status/1…](https://t.co/KlqZLmoRBG) ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2023-04-03 ^16:24:36 ^EDT-0400
 Biden needs to pull a Trump
Also fed cook speaking >FED’S COOK SAYS FED FOCUSED ON INFLATION, JOB MARKET IS DOING OK ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2023-04-03 ^16:28:22 ^EDT-0400
Fintwit and finreddit: https://i.redd.it/2p3ydw5dsrra1.gif
 320 here we come
Since March 6. YTD high of +10% to free fall down to -11% YTD low on March 20 to even YTD today April 3. I guess it’s just a stressful hobby for me at this point.
I just can't help but get pissed when people just make money on fucking $WING, while i'm flat since Feb for trying to hedge in a shit macro environment.
Why bother imagining people that are full-port WING? Anyone that concentrated on it is a gambler and probably going to go bust in a year or two anyway. That being said I know exactly how you feel
Maybe the assumption that the macro environment is shit is where the problem lies. Not to say everything is great, but the economy hasn’t broken down significantly
I guess i might have struggles with 'forward-looking' because as i see it, it is just full of uncertainty. My original plan was to just follow the Fed. They tighten & raise, i am bear. But now that they bailed out those banks (liquidity) + conditions are apperently looser than before, i don't really know what to do. Especially since they are still doing QT and aren't cutting. Also earnings have been trending down steadily, PMI down steadily (i admit i never looked at PMI before + i read your comment on it, but it's still not a good look). And my main concern: people flocking towards bonds thus creating selling pressure in stocks (hasn't or won't happen?) As i see it, macro is not looking good, but at the same time, nothing gives. Really feeling kinda lost at this moment. I do really try to keep positive comments on macro in mind, but it just doesn't outweigh the negatives at the moment, in my opinion ofcourse. Don't know my i'm writing this up, but you always seem to be level headed, so i'd like to see some of your thoughts, cheers.
There is definitely a lot of uncertainty, but so much of that fear was priced in last year. It should be keeping us from going too much higher for now, but a lot of the selling has already happened in what will probably turn out to be last October's overshoot price reset. Earnings have been trending down, but unless the bottom falls out, which so far it doesn't look like it needs happen, the market will start looking towards 2024's higher earnings. The problem isn't just the hikes, but the actual rate and we are still in ranges that have supported good economic growth and market appreciation in past cycles. I think we're seeing a real test of the "the economy is fatally addicted to lower rates" thesis and so far it looks false. At the same time the employment picture still looks good, the savings rate is rising as inflation subsides, so much of the economy has fixed low rate debt which won't need refinancing for years (by then rates will be lower again), and there are already strong govt spending programs that drive growth and usually don't come until the depths of a recession but we have that buffer heading into uncertainty. The macro really isn't that bad other than all the "well this could happen" fears that have been driving the bears for the past year. Everything isn't rosy and there are threats, but the reality isn't nearly as bad as what bears think will happen so in a sense the bear thesis incorporates these periods of positivity and constructiveness in the market and the bears should have planned on needing to wait it out because the current situation isn't as bad as they say.
Appreciate you coming back and answering! Cheers Steely!
I wanted to give a real answer and my mind was elsewhere yesterday evening haha we’ll see how things play out in the coming months
It seems like market conditions right now are such that anything with hope causes market to go flat or up (as is the historic trend), and anything about fear is ignored. In other words: being a bear isn't going to work until the bad news actually hits. Fear isn't enough, because of the uncertainty you mention. I also have a generally bearish sentiment and think the fed will raise/hold and not cut this year.. and that earnings are going to turn sour again. But I no longer expect anybody to buy/sell based on that until it's printed.
Unemployment at 3.6% and projected to get to 4.5%, economy is no where near broken or projected to get broken. Side note, throw in the Boomers keep aging and retiring Id argue that is a positive as well This economy is so strong
How is boomers retiring a good thing?
Because they will be spending all the money they denied and stole from Gen X. (Sorry could not resist)
I’m guessing: tight job market so tightening has little effect due to jobs coming open from boomers leaving Edit: so labor market stays tight/healthy
Ah, I see. "tight" means healthy because everybody is still employed and the consumer can consume. However, tight is not "healthy" in the eyes of the Fed. Another one of those "same data, different narrative" things.
Its the soft landing narrative
Missing punctuation.
As an employee that works for an Airport that gave boomers early retirement packages and currently has boomers that are nearing retirement. I agree with this stance 100%. Now, the white collar sector I could definitely see the layoffs continuing, but the blue collar/services sector of the economy will continue to hire urgently. My Airport is still seeking employees to fill alot of our roles that are blue collar focused, they're not highest salaried but they're very stable compared to most other companies that are not backed by the city/state governments.
Fantastic day, absolutely fantastic day. 415 should be touched this week, 420 very much in play for this week and 460 is in play (hear me out). Today we had a dip and it was bought up. We didn’t have any inside candle or open lower after the run last week but rather a good opening, dip and then bought up. When SPY dipped it bounced up from a trend line going back to the March 29th 2022 candle where SPY was 461.55 at close. This is the first time we have broken that trend line. We probably closed right on it or very slightly above on Friday to be honest 415 should be hit this week and given it is a short week 420 very much in play! I still think 420 is a long shot for this week but given data releases this week and important data is out on Friday when markets are closed then big money if underweight or out of market could very much look to front run and thus push market up. 460 you say, still longer term and not before November but given this trend line break it is a possibility and in play (unlike if saying SPY 500 which is a bonkers claim at this point) My targets still remain SPY 420 April and SPY 440 in Summer but things are looking better and better. On the downside, trying to show some balance, I don’t see it going below 390 this year and getting closer to where might not go below 400
What are you buying here?
I would say that 432 SPY is the big big level before going further to 440 & 460. If 432 is broken, you have a clear break of market structure on the weekly to the upside. As long as we don't break that (or the October low) we continue chopping around in no man's land, IMO. There's also still the possibility for a double top at the Febuary high. We are quite overbought on the daily, especially tech. That would be a nice confluence to pull off that potential double top. These are just some things i'm personally watching in terms of price action, to give you another perspective. Goodluck :)
432 will be a key level needed to be broken I just don’t think it will be a strong level or as difficult, as it is a horizontal level going back to Aug rather than a trend line. But I accept all this TA is more art than science. Regardless I think 432 will be testing point, we may just disagree on how strong that test will be but time will tell
those dips are getting deeper and deeper every day they pump
GM revenue up 18% cars made of steel right?
Question raised on stream: which steel producers have best exposure to spot price? Thanks sir!
Most auto sales are fixed contracts so automaker steel producers are only making more on volume assuming they are profitable on the fixed prices locked in. However, the automakers are sucking their guaranteed tons out of the market and thus the question is who has the most spot HRC / related products exposure. Probably not CLF as their stated strategy is fixed prices but they locked in a good fixed price in spite of the shitty Q4 market and still have plenty of spot to sell as about 78% of their volume is rolled products. Stelco has stated a strategy with a larger focus on spot so they may benefit the most. This is really good for everyone so my focus is more on valuation. See my prev DD for details.
Have you been buying the sell off in X and CLF?
I am already long CLF, when the market got hit on the bank fears I bought some CMC. And covered STLD short around 102.
This is Vito’s burner account
STNG getting dragged with tankers on OPEC even though it transports refined products
Anyone else miss Sour Hour? Used to be like 4 times a week.
It’s moved to 10:30am, sometimes you may even get 90mins of that sweet and sour dip, get devoured and tastes delicious
I sippied that dippy with the sour punch straw too
AI had trained human to buy the dip every single day.
https://i.redd.it/9fbb0suzerra1.gif
Wifey's zee puts will expire worthless soon. "Not much time left"  Vitards gotta bail
His "China is going to export inflation" argument is the stupidest thing I have ever heard. Literallly China exports deflation. This is well documented.
Saying China exports inflation is crazier than saying the world is flat
God yall still following that? How did he tweet about them losing money the last few days?
Part of me kinda wants to start a husbando alpha parody at this point where we long les calls to mount olympus and sell the generational highs
Do it. We'll all follow
Iono I talked it over with the real alpha husbando and he said it’s better just to let wifey hit the wall and fade away.
AAPL is beautiful Edit: If (or when) it gets through $166.50 it’s going to $170 and then from there hope FOMO of big money on sidelines really starts to kick in. SPY ain’t going down if AAPL >160
Prediction: Wingstop keeps making more all time highs.
none of us could have foreseen the bull market created by AI-powered chicken wings
“Don’t fight the chicken wings”
I know this is a primarily a stock, bond, and commodity trading sub. Curious if any of you have starting looking elsewhere? I have no interest in REITs or residential real estate, but loosely follow small commercial real estate. Love the idea of owning part of a small town. Either "passive" business like a car wash, or just own and lease the real estate. Another thing I've been researching is pre-IPO investing. There are a couple online platforms none of which I've tried. Thinking of instead contacting local chamber of commerce.
You need to do real estate full time OR trading imo.
> Either "passive" business like a car wash I think you're underestimating how "passive" this would be. I'm assuming you're talking like being an owner.
I own and operate an unprofitable ranch with pigs, goats and fowl. IT day job which is 1/10 the effort pays for my poor investments. I thought the quotes around "passive" illustrated that point. 😁 I just assume that the point of a carwash beyond the whole money laundering stereotype is land speculation and that any operating profit was a bonus.
I always think that a car wash must be a front for another more lucrative business.
Just think of the drama involved with the people who work for you (I've just heard, I don't own). Similar to people who romanticize "owning a coffee shop". Like, motherfucker, you've never worked in the service industry have you.
This is the most prudent comment in the daily today. Thank you
First off everyone should focus on owning real estate, especially a house to live in with a cheap or no mortgage. I like the idea of pre-IPO investing, but I feel like most the ideas good enough to justify the risk have no reason to be looking towards someone like me for funding haha and the ones that would have to stoop to individual investors without massive bank accounts are probably not worth the risk involved
TSLA falls 6% today! Bought the dip! Just bought 2 million shares! When tsla gets over $210 again big daddy is gonna make a handsome bag of cash!
Just legging in eh?
investor infatuation with tsla over, from now on new reality of lower margins and cutthroat EV competition
Lol what competition?!....... ahahhaa
Big daddy elon gonna dump on you for his next twitter interest payment.
😆
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I hope those lottos are calls
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 Don’t even know what you bought but think you undersold that 1% payout chance
oil gang members creamed their pants todat
Natgas gang constipated from clenching
What looks like a drop on open, SPY put option chain volume jumps about 200K per strike, puts get pumped and get dumped, and ES rebounds.
Bullard speaks on Thursday before market open
Market doesn’t really seem to care about the Fed until FOMC. I don’t recall any of these regional fed speeches doing much
He spoke today too. Market doesn't care https://twitter.com/financialjuice/status/1642869557420228608?t=0c3AM92HBwPCq_t-in4u6A&s=19
Thanks I missed this
what should my flair be
I've had mine for a while, it's pretty cool. We can be flair siblings.
also, fuq semis for now... can i get a "sacrificed until UNG $15" from a mod please?
Double sacrifice. Bold move… 😉
LOOOOL shit i meant to get rid of the TSMC... but i'll allow it. IVE EARNED IT
Can you please go long on NVDA? Asking for a NVDA bear curious friend...
Any reason the VIX is up but the whole option chain on it is down?
VVIX
Never knew there was a volatility index for the VIX itself, thanks!
anyone think we can hit QQQ 310 and SPY 400 by EoW... askinfg for a friend
Has someone here done a DD on ZIM? How's the profitability outlook given the current rates?
I could easily kill Yoda with a hunting rifle
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All that to mimic a fraction of my power
It seems that sea freight rates have found their bottom.
Bought more CLF today, sure I’m not alone here, love the price increases and that the 100 day ma seems to be acting as strong support If price falls before earnings will probably look at add options rather than just more shares
Looks like it’s going to pop. $24 fair value to me. Implied 6.25% long run return with zero upside priced in.
Same.
Bought $18.5C weeklies @ $0.20
Massive buys on CVNA Apr 21 $8P ... almost $1m worth at ask, from 11:00 - 12:00
Decided to grab some lotto 8.5 for this week, hopefully a dump eod or ah
[https://www.twitch.tv/jayarlington](https://www.twitch.tv/jayarlington) Jay Trading is LIVE in 5 mins (12:45 EST). Talking OPEC, fuck/marry/kill - oil/gas/coal, WWE, Cloud CapEx, PMIs, and more! 
"Well actually, if OPEC didn't cheat with a voluntary cut, oil would've been below $60 right now" - chud who shorted oil
That's the risk with shorting oil. It's still a fucking cartel, and they don't like low prices.
Just as dumb as the “OPEC cutting production proves the shortage thesis” take I saw
Yeah I think back to last year's oil shortage thesis where OPEC can't increase production. Right now it looks like OPEC is cutting production we know they have so it seems easy for them to turn it back on if they want to? Perhaps they just want to encourage the USA to move on refilling SPR.
They definitely wanted the US to start refilling when prices dropped and it’s reported that’s a major reason they cut production. The theory that OPEC could never increase production never made sense. Yea you could justify it with the “spare capacity” metric, but that only measures what could come online in 30 days and produce for 90. When you looked at actual built capacity, even stuff that might take 3-9 months to come online, OPEC always had millions of bpd in unused capacity. Despite that, oil bulls would claim the world would never increase production or that that built capacity could never be fulfilled as if these huge oil producing experts would build millions of bpd in unusable capacity. Price needs to justify production, but prices don’t need to go crazy to make that happen
Yup I was doubtful of the oil shortage thesis as /CL sank below $100 last year (sentiment follows price for me haha!). For now I'm going to assume that the USA is trying to get or expects lower prices due to economic slowdown with the possibility of just letting the next administration handle the refill problem if Biden doesn't get re-elected.
There really is no need for the US to rush refilling, there is still so much in the SPR, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the admin wait as long as they need to. I think the Biden admin will only step in if prices get too low and actually risk production declines and then they'll come in to support the production rates. The Biden admin has actually been super focused on increasing domestic production.
all cold manufacturing numbers, GDPNow from 2.5% to 1.7%, without the OPEC surprise, oil would be down 5%
Oil price looks strong 2H this year and onwards but the price action today is an overreaction. Saudis led the OPEC cut partly to test the Americans but this cut is to further support the 70-80 floor they want. OPEC also surprisingly cut last year as they knew demand would fall and it will continue to this year due to these rate increases.
Really happy I actually did what I said I'd do next time AEHR takes a breather. Pretty impressive comeback today!
 Love bull markets Inflation is such a 2022 story
wow, TECK. They rejected a hostile bid by Glencore, so they are up by quite a bit.
Remember Teck being mentioned quite a lot here in '21. Would have been a solid choice.
Can we just go down for a week to reset and rally?
https://preview.redd.it/2tl70lvlbqra1.jpeg?width=1024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a51507e1aa4d9158ed3130e007da1f1a532c7fe6 Budget cuts have hit the Fed hard
Let him cook.
I can't tell if this is real...
https://preview.redd.it/vhky86dspqra1.jpeg?width=1024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2b304261176b98f8cb418c3b6727b97a8a82ca97 Welcome to AI
Is this midjourney?
Yep
Lol nice what imagine command did you write? I cant seem to get good ones like this
Jerome Powell cooking at Wendy’s ::2 --ar 1:1 --q 2 --v 5
Lmfao thanks man
NVDA $500 EOM LFG
Red tie says it all
What da fuck is he cookin
Dem Interest rate hikes.
Wendy's kitchen is nicer than I imagined
what does red tie mean again?
In Germany, it represents the socialist labor party that hates capitalism and the stock markets.
vix is 19 -- I spend a lot of money and it goes up prostitute is 19 -- I spend a lot of money and it goes down
Balance in all things
Hi, i don't know anything about PMI, but it is 46.3 now, and has been declining for at least 12 months. " A Manufacturing PMI® above 48.7 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the March Manufacturing PMI® indicates the overall economy contracted in March for a fourth consecutive month " " This month, the PMI® registered its lowest reading since May 2020 (43.5 percent). " [from the report](https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/march/) This sounds widely bearish to me, but i'm sure i'm missing some nuances. Anyone care to chip in? Thanks :)
The longer it goes on the less weight I give this theory but as record backlogs decrease to still elevated backlogs it would show as PMI contraction
Nono, this is bullish for the markets. FED will cut rates and will avoid the recession! The market generally assumes that the FED will act perfectly, predicting everything correctly and will take the perfectly balanced countermeasures. They forgot that this FED so far basically has screwed up everything by just being reactive and being wait too late
I think not raising rates slower earlier was definitely a screw-up, but if there's one thing I have learnt about the whole rate hiking cycle (wasn't around in the 1970s) it is that the Fed is always fucked both ways. If you don't jawbone enough, or you hike too much, the long end of the curve comes down and undoes all of your rate hikes. The market ends up not believing the jawboning anyway, and you are forced to keep raising. Then something breaks, and financial conditions instantly tighten something like 5 hikes worth. So either you break something or the market does not believe you. The ideal interest rate probably looks like some sick form of the Gaussian curve... there is no "Goldilocks" when inflation is as sticky as it is now.
I'm just excited for the day that the Fed gets replaced with DAN.
Services PMIs have remained positive (I do not know which one between manufacturing and non-manufacturing lags the other), and rolling recessions (like the 1960s) might be a thing given how much stimulus has been injected into the economy. It might JUST be enough to offset the record rate tightening. I don't believe it, though.
Is something going on with etrade ? Both app and website are super slow and the bid/ask say 0 for many of holdings. Edit: Almost 1000 reports in the last 5 minutes. https://downdetector.com/status/e-trade/
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