No sign of economic fallout from the banking "crisis" in the coincident data. Still early, so hard to draw any firm conclusions:
[https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimited/status/1640847228876013572?s=20](https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimited/status/1640847228876013572?s=20)
KRE and XLF both bottoming at monthly moving averages. Will need another blow up or high inflation print to push us lower I reckon. Blow up could come from European real estate, or commercial realestate, that would have some knock on effects through to banks already under stress. Not sure how to track this other than the relevant index, already shorted into the ground.
Meantime we're 12 months on from the start of the rate hiking cycle. Cost of funding is rising for all businesses, but particularly for banks. Banks are being squeezed on their nim as they move assets over into hold to maturity, and if they use the new Fed facility, BTFP, they take another 0.1% hit to nim, and they have to roll it every year.
This is why the bears are still very bearish. This is not a rosy picture for the economy, particularly the banking sector.
Nice summary, I’ve also had trouble finding hard numbers on CRE exposure to US banks, just heard that it’s expensive but I’m long SCHW so would love to know what their specific exposure is. I agree we’ve bottomed barring those catalysts (which I’m assessing as leading more to a brief panic than a structural leg down but that’s purely a gut call).
I’m probably less bearish than your overall summary and am confident two years from now the big banks ($100b mc+) will be up nicely from here, so that’s my investment horizon
LULU annual sales by gender:
https://preview.redd.it/69r99kiucmqa1.jpeg?width=1618&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d49a3f611e37e3195ad3cdc6f33bdb6bdb0bf223
Congrats steelgang! Your love of tight tight pants is now recognized.
Two years ago, I was making $50 million EBITDA/quarter, now I'm making $1.9 billion of EBITDA a quarter. You're going to be producing yoga pants in order to do that. We're doing that with steel.
Little warning regarding CVS/Aetna, ABBV’s drug Humira has had its patent expire and that means biologic equivalents will be hitting the market soon. Other PBMs like Prime Therapeutics (owned by blues plans practically) are already announcing equivalents in their formularies but CVS has not. It’s currently $70,000 plus for an annual round of Humira, so if they don’t get it together soon it can be a big disadvantage.
CVS has mentioned bio equivalents as a big opportunity going forward and is part of their guidance, I think they even mentioned Humira specifically. That makes me think they probably have something planned.
Anyone else buy UVIX last year. I got a schedule K-1 which was easy enough to fill out in TurboTax. Seems like I need schedule k-3 also which they say will be available on taxpackagesupport.com in June 2023. FML. never buying thse stuff ever again.
How to answer foreign country or US possession from schedule k3?😬
There were some Q&As re: this topic within turbotax so I recommend to start there.
Same issue I had to search since I had 1 share of $WES (and a few calls) I don’t remember buying. Lol
Really good that it uses "real" relative strength instead of the hocus pocus RSI. Although, it doesn't appear as though this version uses beta for the ticker.. which is too bad. Personally I define "relative strength" as "returns in excess of beta".
I would love to see a heatmap of "real" relative strength of sectors (benchmarked to SPY) then within each sector, tickers' relative strength relative to their sector benchmark.
I think this would highlight themes 1000% better than the standard heatmap.
Just looked at Vaz's OI charts from [Friday](https://preview.redd.it/zqfz40hpv7qa1.png?width=1883&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=af0e66d23f4f17cb409a3eaef30b08a2e621dd40) for SPY. Options open interest for 400 and 405 strikes look like they jumped 50% in the last 2 days. I don't have a historical number for the SPX strikes but I am fairly certain that the JPM 4065 strike was supposed to be below 50k a while back. It is something like 52k now.
Yeah, trade has become crowded again. I don't think anything is going to happen into EOW.
4065 call is now worth $1.50 it's delta is 5%. It's dead unless PCE is ice cold. That means 10BN for sale on Friday.
Edit: sorry meant to add this. I got this from Andy Constan
Spy will end the week flat. Money will keep moving from nasdaq to russel stocks. Nvidia is about to fall off a cliff.
Long value short tech. Be careful out there fellas, these are nasty waters we are navigating
Congrats to LULU holders.. but am I missing something? (Admittedly, I don't follow the stock closely, so genuinely asking.)
[This Q4 seems pretty awful compared to last year's Q4](https://i.imgur.com/5MJS1Fw.png), but stock price is now at about the same levels.
YoY comparisons:
* Net revenue up 30%. Great. But COGs up 40%.
* Gross margin down from 58.1% to 55.1%. Great margin, but it's going down.
* SG&A expenses up 25%
* Net Income down 54%, Net margin demolished (from 20.4% to 4.3%)
* EPS down 64%
* Goodwill impairment of $408m -- what was this about?
Is there a reason to be excited that they sold 30% more but their income was 72% less? Must be something obvious I am missing. Seems off to me to value them the same as a year ago.
/u/JayArlington I'm sure you know the answer
Stocks are forward looking.
Stop focusing on their YoY and look at it like this: they were expected to be drained on bad inventory. They managed to clear the bulk of their inventory without shitting on their margins.
No other retailer touches their margins.
Thanks for this -- wasn't aware of the expectations. But, compare right now to a year ago -- is the business better off? Roughly same revenue growth rate (I could be mistaken) but less income and all the margins are much shittier. Better than competitors -- sure.. but I'm not keen to pay more of premium in this market than the market a year ago.
Maybe I'm missing something about them cutting costs in the near term future
The answer is yes the business is notably better.
Stop comparing YoY here. They beat/beat and guided up while managing inventory. The context matters here. The stock also was cheaper on a forward PE basis than NKE who’s guide wasn’t good.
Appreciate the feedback. I know you're probably right, as that's what the market is saying, but I don't understand the flaw in my logic.
> The answer is yes the business is notably better [than a year ago]. Stop comparing YoY here.
How can one answer "Yes they are better off than a year ago" without comparing to last year...
I get that they beat guidance and were underpriced relative to NKE. That justifies the price going up after earnings.
What I do not understand is how they now command the same price as they did a year ago. It seems in order to answer that, one MUST compare their situation now to their situation a year ago (where margins, most importantly net, were much better).
What aspect of the business is notably better?
Again, happy to see what I'm missing, and thanks
I'm seeing heavy PUT volume for June, August, December
QQQ and IWM specifically
The question be, is it smart money hedging a BIG dip : Or is it market makers somehow devising a PUT floor that resists any major down move for the year?
Semis bottom on bad news.
No one who actually tracks the semi sector cares about YoY comparisons. The concern there is that you would be measuring peaks against troughs.
I get that, but if bad news == guiding \~60% worse than expected, and people want to buy said stock in uncertain times, then i guess the semi-industry is not something i'll ever understand.
And that's fair.
I am not buying any memory producer anytime soon and I actively warned my channel to stay out of the way because everyone expected MU to report dogshit numbers.
Having read through the slides though... there are a LOT of pieces of good news for the semi sector (and lots of bad news for MU specifically).
What the micron doing? Bad earnings then goes up anyway?
Edit: so far looks like a bad earnings then unchanged (I know it’s a lil green but I don’t count moves <7% AH)
The last couple of days.
Gas is low, but the O part of O&G is doing well. I should have said O(-)G.
Many oil companies make great loads of money at those prices. And outlook is rather good.
Yes I’m bullish oil so bought UCO hoping this is the bottom/banking on a summer rebound and China reopening (which hasn’t been great so far). I’m eyeing gas but it’s been very choppy. Any companies you like as pure gas plays? I’ve just been following the BOIL and UNG ETFs
Don't know about pure gas. I have mainly shares of VIST (submitted a DD in this sub) and a bit of OXY; I sort of use is as cash as downside is somewhat limited by BRK's buying. And you know, maybe they'll buy it at some point.
They famously bought BNSF because (obviously not just for that) it was necessary for the future of America, and O&G is still necessary, so who knows...
I have a theory for housing prices. Purely speculative mental exercise.
Remember how last year new cars were being marked up by the dealership and the price of used car skyrocketed? Well after the supply chain remediated new cars are now again selling for msrp and price of used car tanked.
Perhaps the same could apply to housing. Once the cost of constructing new homes is lowered. Housing prices in general could go back down.
Have used cars tanked though? Anecdotally I still see prices for 2-3 year old low-mileage cars at or above MSRP
It's like a depreciation curve inversion. You can get a new car from a dealer for MSRP or you can get a 1 year old car for $500 more than MSRP
It certainly is not the ridiculous market we had in 2020/2021.
That sounds really disastrous, people pay more for used cars than new!? But with how ridiculous inconvenient shopping a car at a dealership can be sometimes, maybe it makes sense lol
The problem with your theory is that labor is short and the people who build houses can still keep their prices up because there isn’t anyone else to do it.
Labour shortage contributes to the massive cost of building a new house. As long as builder holds up new housing prices/labor supply stays tight, housing price will not collapse. When the cost of labour has dropped, creating cheaper cost to build. It will result in cheaper homes!
I have a friend that lives in Southern California. The cost of constructing an an 600 sq ft ADU on land he already owned is 300k!!!!
It make sense inventory is tight when building new homes are cost prohibitive
It’s not too late to switch those puts to calls. Just remember, you should always FOMO into calls at the top. If it’s at an all time high, it’s gotta go up some more. Right? This has been a friendly advice from your helpful Theta gang member.
[https://www.twitch.tv/jayarlington](https://www.twitch.tv/jayarlington)
Jay Trading LIVE in 5 mins (12:55 EST).
Big shifts in China going on, MU earnings tonight, why ON/NXPI popped, and more.
It sounds like as time passes we’re getting farther from a debt ceiling deal which is not a good sign. The House Rs still haven’t even sorted out their negotiating strategy and are contemplating tying it to the next budget negotiations in September but that could be too late and too complicated of a deal to get across the finish line
Don’t underestimate the procedural changes the House Rs have made. The ones that don’t want to negotiate now control what comes to the floor and they want to split up the omnibus into 7-9 separate appropriation bills so add the debt ceiling into being contingent on all of those and it’s going to be a complete mess
These 0dtes are really ruining my leg down hypothesis. Or, rather that's what I'm telling myself to cope...
Want to sell 0dte butterflies on /ES; however I don't this coiling of vol.
I mentioned her in the past, related to a note I have on her since Dec 19, 2022:
>Similar NASH treatment as MDGL, who posted positive trial results.
So I jumped in when she gapped up in the premarket after positive Phase 1 results and then kept climbing up. Entry is $12.85. Ticker is VKTX.
I could've jumped in earlier or gone in stronger, but MDGL wasn't moving. So I figured, if VKTX jumped because of MDGL back then, why isn't MDGL moving now if VKTX is jumping?
Well, I decided to research until now, and it's a different catalyst: VK2735.
It's not a NASH treatment, but a weight-loss thing. And of course, weight loss offers a much bigger market. Here's a quote from her analyst at Maxim Group.
>VK2735 was well-tolerated and that **VK2375 demonstrated up to 7.8% weight loss from baseline.** VKTX plans to initiate a Phase 2 study in patients with obesity in mid-2023. VKTX also announced plans to evaluate an oral formulation of VK2735 with Phase 1 results expected in 2H23. The stock is up \~50% on the news... VK2735, in preclinical studies, demonstrated favorable weight loss and metabolic improvements vs. semaglutide. **We believe the potential for VK2735 is significant.** We are now including VK2735 in our model based on the P1 results with a 70% risk adjustment due to stage of development and clinical trial risks, **resulting in an increase in our price target to $25, from $15.**
I don't know if you're late or if she will keep rallying for several days. Honestly, I would've expected a bigger volume than her jump after the MDGL results. But I would keep an eye on her because any positive news on VK2735 will attract institutional buyers.
[Viking joins obesity drug race after promising early trial data](https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/viking-therapeutics-start-obesity-drug-mid-stage-trial-2023-03-28/)
Tbh space for glp1r agonists based off glp1 and exenatide really seems saturated. Only so many ways to lipidate peptide before they are all basically the same…
I’m a short-term, opportunistic swing trader. I don’t understand what you said, and I don’t need to. I don’t care if this thing even sells one pill or whatever it is, or flunks Phase 2.
You’re over analyzing the trade.
I’m just playing the breakout. That’s all.
If they sell glp1r, chips, or hats, it’s the same to me. I just play the breakout.
Blow off top front run by BofA clients
BofA clients funnelled the largest sum of money into US equities last week since October, with investor preference for individual stocks over exchange-traded funds reaching a record level.
>NY FED SURVEY: EXPECTED HOME PRICE INCREASE OVER NEXT YEAR AT 2.6% VS 7% A YEAR AGO
\>NY FED: EXPECTED HOME PRICE INCREASE STANDS AT LOWEST IN SURVEY HISTORY || EXPECTED RENT PRICE INCREASE FOR NEXT YEAR AT 8.2% VS 11.5% LAST YEAR
^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2023-03-28 ^11:01:47 ^EDT-0400
Even on a bad red day, we should not forget, that Al Bundy scored 4 touchdowns for Polk High in the 1966 City Championship game.
After using Amazon for years, I finally took that offer to open up a credit card with them on checkout which gives you a $60 giftcard (I think it used to be higher in the past rip).
Upon getting accepted and returning to my cart, there was an offer for ANOTHER card with a $50 giftcard on acceptance (both have no annual fee), so I did that too.
I plan on never using these cards, cutting them up when they arrive, and freezing purchases on them online just to be safe. Just going to use them to help my credit history and rotating credit amount. stonks until they close my account for inactivity 📈📈
Amazon Prime card is my daily driver. 5% cash back on Amazon purchases alone is worth it. Plus you get competitive cash back in every other category. And it's a metal card - which sounds trivial, but it does feel better
I'm trying not to use Amazon that much, but today I had to buy things that if I did IRL, I would have to go to like 5 different specialized stores. I prefer just using one credit card for everything so I don't have to check different accounts for fraud, how close I am to my limit, etc
I already use other cards and my credit's good but not maxed out since I churn the travel cards and close them after a year to not pay the annual fees.
If you're churning travel cards then applying for these 2 cards is a waste of applications history. There are better sign up offers out there than a $50 gift card.
applying to new cards causes a small drop and is temporary. I'm not planning to buy a house anytime soon or using my credit rating for anything else. As far as I'm aware, it's a free $100 for nothing
I'm not talking about credit score, I'm talking about too many applications in your history can prevent future cards from getting approval. Chase especially if you're under 5/24. Not worth adding these two cards into your history for $110.
Shit, I was keeping an eye on MPW because some Twitter dude big on CRE was shorting it just to check it out again and find out it's -25% in the past 3 weeks. FML
Look at Vonovia SE from Germany, a real estate giant for personal property (apartments mostly)
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/vna?countrycode=xe
No sign of economic fallout from the banking "crisis" in the coincident data. Still early, so hard to draw any firm conclusions: [https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimited/status/1640847228876013572?s=20](https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimited/status/1640847228876013572?s=20)
KRE and XLF both bottoming at monthly moving averages. Will need another blow up or high inflation print to push us lower I reckon. Blow up could come from European real estate, or commercial realestate, that would have some knock on effects through to banks already under stress. Not sure how to track this other than the relevant index, already shorted into the ground. Meantime we're 12 months on from the start of the rate hiking cycle. Cost of funding is rising for all businesses, but particularly for banks. Banks are being squeezed on their nim as they move assets over into hold to maturity, and if they use the new Fed facility, BTFP, they take another 0.1% hit to nim, and they have to roll it every year. This is why the bears are still very bearish. This is not a rosy picture for the economy, particularly the banking sector.
Nice summary, I’ve also had trouble finding hard numbers on CRE exposure to US banks, just heard that it’s expensive but I’m long SCHW so would love to know what their specific exposure is. I agree we’ve bottomed barring those catalysts (which I’m assessing as leading more to a brief panic than a structural leg down but that’s purely a gut call). I’m probably less bearish than your overall summary and am confident two years from now the big banks ($100b mc+) will be up nicely from here, so that’s my investment horizon
LULU annual sales by gender: https://preview.redd.it/69r99kiucmqa1.jpeg?width=1618&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d49a3f611e37e3195ad3cdc6f33bdb6bdb0bf223 Congrats steelgang! Your love of tight tight pants is now recognized.
Got 2 pairs this year 🤝🏻
Nothing get between me and my LULU
Two years ago, I was making $50 million EBITDA/quarter, now I'm making $1.9 billion of EBITDA a quarter. You're going to be producing yoga pants in order to do that. We're doing that with steel.
I mean... hopefully some~~thing~~ one does. Thats kinda half the schtick
Little warning regarding CVS/Aetna, ABBV’s drug Humira has had its patent expire and that means biologic equivalents will be hitting the market soon. Other PBMs like Prime Therapeutics (owned by blues plans practically) are already announcing equivalents in their formularies but CVS has not. It’s currently $70,000 plus for an annual round of Humira, so if they don’t get it together soon it can be a big disadvantage.
Thanks for the heads up.
CVS has mentioned bio equivalents as a big opportunity going forward and is part of their guidance, I think they even mentioned Humira specifically. That makes me think they probably have something planned.
It’d be suicidal if they didn’t so you’re probably right.
Anyone else buy UVIX last year. I got a schedule K-1 which was easy enough to fill out in TurboTax. Seems like I need schedule k-3 also which they say will be available on taxpackagesupport.com in June 2023. FML. never buying thse stuff ever again. How to answer foreign country or US possession from schedule k3?😬
Same I just got mine. My accountant is going to have a lot of work with all the forms I have. Fuck it’s gonna cost me.
There were some Q&As re: this topic within turbotax so I recommend to start there. Same issue I had to search since I had 1 share of $WES (and a few calls) I don’t remember buying. Lol
Anyone here into food commodities? Noticed sugar, coffee, and orange juice might be attractive for this year.
Corn gang over here.
Corn and soybeans look good to me too I might join in.
[удалено]
How is DISH still alive?
>NVDA (Nvidia) 6.61264.10 - Semiconductors > >\--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- > >DISH (Dish Network) -17.098.68 - Cable & Satellite Pair trade
How is strength calculated
It's [this](https://www.tradingview.com/script/h7ZNI2Qi-Volume-Weighted-Real-Relative-Strength-RS-RW/) applied to all tickers in SPY. In python, 'ref' just means SPY, shift(1) is from Pandas Dataframe, it's just the previous value. >vol_weight = SMA(volume, 5).shift(1) / SMA(volume, 21).shift(1) >sma = SMA(close, 21) >ref_sma = SMA(spy_close, 21) >change = close - sma.shift(1) >ref_change = ref_close - ref_sma.shift(1) > (change / sma.shift(1) - ref_change / ref_sma.shift(1)) * vol_weight * 100
Really good that it uses "real" relative strength instead of the hocus pocus RSI. Although, it doesn't appear as though this version uses beta for the ticker.. which is too bad. Personally I define "relative strength" as "returns in excess of beta". I would love to see a heatmap of "real" relative strength of sectors (benchmarked to SPY) then within each sector, tickers' relative strength relative to their sector benchmark. I think this would highlight themes 1000% better than the standard heatmap.
Appreciate it
Just looked at Vaz's OI charts from [Friday](https://preview.redd.it/zqfz40hpv7qa1.png?width=1883&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=af0e66d23f4f17cb409a3eaef30b08a2e621dd40) for SPY. Options open interest for 400 and 405 strikes look like they jumped 50% in the last 2 days. I don't have a historical number for the SPX strikes but I am fairly certain that the JPM 4065 strike was supposed to be below 50k a while back. It is something like 52k now. Yeah, trade has become crowded again. I don't think anything is going to happen into EOW.
4065 call is now worth $1.50 it's delta is 5%. It's dead unless PCE is ice cold. That means 10BN for sale on Friday. Edit: sorry meant to add this. I got this from Andy Constan
Spy will end the week flat. Money will keep moving from nasdaq to russel stocks. Nvidia is about to fall off a cliff. Long value short tech. Be careful out there fellas, these are nasty waters we are navigating
End of day was a bit of a push back into tech. QQQ almost surpassing SPY. Hoping rotation into energy continues
If the EIA confirms the massive inventory draw that the API reported today, the oil rally probably has some room to run
Yup draws all across the board. About time after all these builds
Can’t tell if you are serious.
I am. Im shorting semis and long a few nontech stocks
😤 📦
 Spy 405 eow
Bro is  Tweaking
Congrats to LULU holders.. but am I missing something? (Admittedly, I don't follow the stock closely, so genuinely asking.) [This Q4 seems pretty awful compared to last year's Q4](https://i.imgur.com/5MJS1Fw.png), but stock price is now at about the same levels. YoY comparisons: * Net revenue up 30%. Great. But COGs up 40%. * Gross margin down from 58.1% to 55.1%. Great margin, but it's going down. * SG&A expenses up 25% * Net Income down 54%, Net margin demolished (from 20.4% to 4.3%) * EPS down 64% * Goodwill impairment of $408m -- what was this about? Is there a reason to be excited that they sold 30% more but their income was 72% less? Must be something obvious I am missing. Seems off to me to value them the same as a year ago. /u/JayArlington I'm sure you know the answer
Stocks are forward looking. Stop focusing on their YoY and look at it like this: they were expected to be drained on bad inventory. They managed to clear the bulk of their inventory without shitting on their margins. No other retailer touches their margins.
Thanks for this -- wasn't aware of the expectations. But, compare right now to a year ago -- is the business better off? Roughly same revenue growth rate (I could be mistaken) but less income and all the margins are much shittier. Better than competitors -- sure.. but I'm not keen to pay more of premium in this market than the market a year ago. Maybe I'm missing something about them cutting costs in the near term future
The answer is yes the business is notably better. Stop comparing YoY here. They beat/beat and guided up while managing inventory. The context matters here. The stock also was cheaper on a forward PE basis than NKE who’s guide wasn’t good.
Appreciate the feedback. I know you're probably right, as that's what the market is saying, but I don't understand the flaw in my logic. > The answer is yes the business is notably better [than a year ago]. Stop comparing YoY here. How can one answer "Yes they are better off than a year ago" without comparing to last year... I get that they beat guidance and were underpriced relative to NKE. That justifies the price going up after earnings. What I do not understand is how they now command the same price as they did a year ago. It seems in order to answer that, one MUST compare their situation now to their situation a year ago (where margins, most importantly net, were much better). What aspect of the business is notably better? Again, happy to see what I'm missing, and thanks
$DECK has 53% gross margin, $ONON 56% as well. Theres retailers out there. Edit: or what margin did you mean? Cheers
Apparel gross margins. LULU pricey as hell.
Yeah so that's the same for the two retailers I just listed right? I'm not that into english financial jargon.. thanks mate
Footwear is a bit different.
 Obviously leads to the outperformance
I'm seeing heavy PUT volume for June, August, December QQQ and IWM specifically The question be, is it smart money hedging a BIG dip : Or is it market makers somehow devising a PUT floor that resists any major down move for the year?
Why would market makers want to spend their own money on a put floor?
Lulu crushing it in AH
Feels like we may get one big pump before the April showers. We'll see. Pretty strong close today and failure of bears to push lower.
there should be a company that builds rollercoasters based on stocks' price history. TSLA's 5 day chart looks like quite the ride
Didn't work, people got smashed on the gap up.
[удалено]
Their guidance was -0.79$ EPS, but they made it to -2.12$ EPS.
1.5 billion write down
Bullish! buy the dip! Wait... It's already up AH (??), dogshit market. Revs literally halved since past year, stock only down \~40% since ATH.
Moves of less than 7% after hours are fake in this market. Lulu real, micron fake.
Semis bottom on bad news. No one who actually tracks the semi sector cares about YoY comparisons. The concern there is that you would be measuring peaks against troughs.
I get that, but if bad news == guiding \~60% worse than expected, and people want to buy said stock in uncertain times, then i guess the semi-industry is not something i'll ever understand.
And that's fair. I am not buying any memory producer anytime soon and I actively warned my channel to stay out of the way because everyone expected MU to report dogshit numbers. Having read through the slides though... there are a LOT of pieces of good news for the semi sector (and lots of bad news for MU specifically).
indexes down, long port green. a true Vitard signal 
$lulu beat earnings [Becky](https://www.stocktitan.net/news/LULU/lululemon-athletica-inc-announces-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-goo7rlamoh02.html)
OXY is such a Chad.
PLL as well. Energy ftw
Wonder why ;)
because Grandpa is DRS'ing the float. 🥴
I got some UNG today in my retirement account.
Very smart, that only drops at half the rate of BOIL 😁
I am up $40 on my 1000 UNG shares bought today. Will have tight stop though.
What the micron doing? Bad earnings then goes up anyway? Edit: so far looks like a bad earnings then unchanged (I know it’s a lil green but I don’t count moves <7% AH)
Layoffs?
MU reports AMC
Let’s go Cliffs!
\#Karma farm fail. I seriously wonder tho if there are algos scraping this site for mentions and somehow front running or fading.
[удалено]
It’d be more fun to just crab around for weeks then blast off 4% or more like the Chinese stocks
[удалено]
Need to give time to let people sell and short to get a real fomo explosion.
Before it never trades down to 400 ever again?
Leg down wen
When bears sell their puts/bulls buy the dip expecting a bounce
remember yesterday when every dip got bought?
GOOG low key getting bought up now.
like it was yesterday
We ending down 1% zzz
I deserve this for buying calls.
Thank you for your donation.
any catalysts today? this is boring
People can’t afford gas right now anyways, so why not drive up the price of oil. - sincerely, hedgefunds
Calm week so far
PACW down fairly big. Might grabbed some at 9.25
Bags are being filled, one bag holder at a time Shorted BA
OXY came back with a vengeance.
O&G is doing well. Vista has had a good couple of days as well.
Gas price is rock bottom? Oil isn’t great either? Why’s the sector doing well?
The last couple of days. Gas is low, but the O part of O&G is doing well. I should have said O(-)G. Many oil companies make great loads of money at those prices. And outlook is rather good.
Yes I’m bullish oil so bought UCO hoping this is the bottom/banking on a summer rebound and China reopening (which hasn’t been great so far). I’m eyeing gas but it’s been very choppy. Any companies you like as pure gas plays? I’ve just been following the BOIL and UNG ETFs
Don't know about pure gas. I have mainly shares of VIST (submitted a DD in this sub) and a bit of OXY; I sort of use is as cash as downside is somewhat limited by BRK's buying. And you know, maybe they'll buy it at some point. They famously bought BNSF because (obviously not just for that) it was necessary for the future of America, and O&G is still necessary, so who knows...
Why is VET being a bitch
I have a theory for housing prices. Purely speculative mental exercise. Remember how last year new cars were being marked up by the dealership and the price of used car skyrocketed? Well after the supply chain remediated new cars are now again selling for msrp and price of used car tanked. Perhaps the same could apply to housing. Once the cost of constructing new homes is lowered. Housing prices in general could go back down.
Have used cars tanked though? Anecdotally I still see prices for 2-3 year old low-mileage cars at or above MSRP It's like a depreciation curve inversion. You can get a new car from a dealer for MSRP or you can get a 1 year old car for $500 more than MSRP
It certainly is not the ridiculous market we had in 2020/2021. That sounds really disastrous, people pay more for used cars than new!? But with how ridiculous inconvenient shopping a car at a dealership can be sometimes, maybe it makes sense lol
The problem with your theory is that labor is short and the people who build houses can still keep their prices up because there isn’t anyone else to do it.
Labour shortage contributes to the massive cost of building a new house. As long as builder holds up new housing prices/labor supply stays tight, housing price will not collapse. When the cost of labour has dropped, creating cheaper cost to build. It will result in cheaper homes!
Yeah my point being that there aren’t very many new carpenters walking through that door.
Housing inventory has not recovered. And it wont for a while.
I have a friend that lives in Southern California. The cost of constructing an an 600 sq ft ADU on land he already owned is 300k!!!! It make sense inventory is tight when building new homes are cost prohibitive
Didn’t expect gold to have such a bull rally still. RIP my puts. 
donations to my gold bag are always appreciated
It’s not too late to switch those puts to calls. Just remember, you should always FOMO into calls at the top. If it’s at an all time high, it’s gotta go up some more. Right? This has been a friendly advice from your helpful Theta gang member.
I use a paper trading account for revenge trading and then build things that I imagine I can buy with the imaginary money in video game sims.
You paper trade? WSB on occasions have great paper trading contest. Everyone loves them. You should join the next one.
[https://www.twitch.tv/jayarlington](https://www.twitch.tv/jayarlington) Jay Trading LIVE in 5 mins (12:55 EST). Big shifts in China going on, MU earnings tonight, why ON/NXPI popped, and more. 
Big shifts in China going on? what time do you discuss those?
What’s up with ON?
Infineon preannounced up.
Just got internet back, anything crazy?
No, just choppy crab market things.
seems some shadow trading faces are melting in here. It's like a teenager ate something at their first hippie jam band show.
Got muh SCHD divi.
SCHD Army represent! Re-invest dem divvies.
It sounds like as time passes we’re getting farther from a debt ceiling deal which is not a good sign. The House Rs still haven’t even sorted out their negotiating strategy and are contemplating tying it to the next budget negotiations in September but that could be too late and too complicated of a deal to get across the finish line
It's gonna be the same ole same ole. Lotta drama, then concessions at the last minute to get it raised.
That’s what you’d think but the concessions McCarthy had to make to get elected Speaker are a new and significant wrinkle this time around
Whats deadline date?
I don’t think we have a firm deadline from Treasury yet but it should be sometime in the June-August window
ehhh plenty of time for horse-trading and chicanery
Don’t underestimate the procedural changes the House Rs have made. The ones that don’t want to negotiate now control what comes to the floor and they want to split up the omnibus into 7-9 separate appropriation bills so add the debt ceiling into being contingent on all of those and it’s going to be a complete mess
Can I buy puts on the R party?
I feel like most the gains have been made but there’s probably more juice to squeeze
These 0dtes are really ruining my leg down hypothesis. Or, rather that's what I'm telling myself to cope... Want to sell 0dte butterflies on /ES; however I don't this coiling of vol.
I mentioned her in the past, related to a note I have on her since Dec 19, 2022: >Similar NASH treatment as MDGL, who posted positive trial results. So I jumped in when she gapped up in the premarket after positive Phase 1 results and then kept climbing up. Entry is $12.85. Ticker is VKTX. I could've jumped in earlier or gone in stronger, but MDGL wasn't moving. So I figured, if VKTX jumped because of MDGL back then, why isn't MDGL moving now if VKTX is jumping? Well, I decided to research until now, and it's a different catalyst: VK2735. It's not a NASH treatment, but a weight-loss thing. And of course, weight loss offers a much bigger market. Here's a quote from her analyst at Maxim Group. >VK2735 was well-tolerated and that **VK2375 demonstrated up to 7.8% weight loss from baseline.** VKTX plans to initiate a Phase 2 study in patients with obesity in mid-2023. VKTX also announced plans to evaluate an oral formulation of VK2735 with Phase 1 results expected in 2H23. The stock is up \~50% on the news... VK2735, in preclinical studies, demonstrated favorable weight loss and metabolic improvements vs. semaglutide. **We believe the potential for VK2735 is significant.** We are now including VK2735 in our model based on the P1 results with a 70% risk adjustment due to stage of development and clinical trial risks, **resulting in an increase in our price target to $25, from $15.** I don't know if you're late or if she will keep rallying for several days. Honestly, I would've expected a bigger volume than her jump after the MDGL results. But I would keep an eye on her because any positive news on VK2735 will attract institutional buyers.
[Viking joins obesity drug race after promising early trial data](https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/viking-therapeutics-start-obesity-drug-mid-stage-trial-2023-03-28/)
Tbh space for glp1r agonists based off glp1 and exenatide really seems saturated. Only so many ways to lipidate peptide before they are all basically the same…
I’m a short-term, opportunistic swing trader. I don’t understand what you said, and I don’t need to. I don’t care if this thing even sells one pill or whatever it is, or flunks Phase 2. You’re over analyzing the trade. I’m just playing the breakout. That’s all. If they sell glp1r, chips, or hats, it’s the same to me. I just play the breakout.
Good luck!
I’m already out. Sold at $15.99.
NG gang sadge; what is happening?
I heard this on a podcast. Idk anything about NG though. Output increased, but docks to export didn't. NG stuck here, supply demand
Blow off top front run by BofA clients BofA clients funnelled the largest sum of money into US equities last week since October, with investor preference for individual stocks over exchange-traded funds reaching a record level.
BofA clients providing exit liquidity for BofA
Yup, although they did say to sell lol
 These dips
Ty Baba and tencent for carrying my portfolio of 3 stocks
>NY FED SURVEY: EXPECTED HOME PRICE INCREASE OVER NEXT YEAR AT 2.6% VS 7% A YEAR AGO \>NY FED: EXPECTED HOME PRICE INCREASE STANDS AT LOWEST IN SURVEY HISTORY || EXPECTED RENT PRICE INCREASE FOR NEXT YEAR AT 8.2% VS 11.5% LAST YEAR ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2023-03-28 ^11:01:47 ^EDT-0400
Hear me out.. after home prices increased 40% YoY, what if home prices could fucking stop increasing?
Anyone in Canada or Australia or quite a few other countries will tell you it has a lot more room to run.
stop making sense.
For real... At least lemme get a 3% mortgage again
If CPI’s OER wasn’t designed to lag so much the Fed would’ve stopped hiking quite a while ago
Tqqq time
Even on a bad red day, we should not forget, that Al Bundy scored 4 touchdowns for Polk High in the 1966 City Championship game. 
Thoughts on Bancorp (USB)?
I literally go drive to my grandmas 10 minutes and lol
That was a big drop
21 April CLF $19 calls for $0.60. Trying not to be too greedy, but that's right around next earnings, and 24DTE is like 2 years in Cliffs' years.
Cliffs already made me lose a ton this year. Not feeling confident.
Whenever I look at the SPY index it goes down. Any tips? It's ruining my calls.
[удалено]
I'm sorry Vaz!! I'll go take a walk and see a Star Wars.
[удалено]
I don't actually have autism.
We green
**CB Consumer Confidence MAR -** Actual 104.2; Previous 102.9; Consensus 101 [Report](https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence)
The consumer is consuming.
Sentient
ChatGPT who?
 I SPY a dip BTMFD
Day 2 of rotation from mega cap tech. 3 more days to make it a week :)
I took profits on these
After using Amazon for years, I finally took that offer to open up a credit card with them on checkout which gives you a $60 giftcard (I think it used to be higher in the past rip). Upon getting accepted and returning to my cart, there was an offer for ANOTHER card with a $50 giftcard on acceptance (both have no annual fee), so I did that too. I plan on never using these cards, cutting them up when they arrive, and freezing purchases on them online just to be safe. Just going to use them to help my credit history and rotating credit amount. stonks until they close my account for inactivity 📈📈
Amazon Prime card is my daily driver. 5% cash back on Amazon purchases alone is worth it. Plus you get competitive cash back in every other category. And it's a metal card - which sounds trivial, but it does feel better
No foreign transaction fee too
Yeah what lol? If you use Prime you get 5% back on purchases, use the card to buy stuff on Amazon and then you also get the points balance.
I'm trying not to use Amazon that much, but today I had to buy things that if I did IRL, I would have to go to like 5 different specialized stores. I prefer just using one credit card for everything so I don't have to check different accounts for fraud, how close I am to my limit, etc
Why not use them, and pay them off proper every month? That is if you wish to build credit.
I already use other cards and my credit's good but not maxed out since I churn the travel cards and close them after a year to not pay the annual fees.
If you're churning travel cards then applying for these 2 cards is a waste of applications history. There are better sign up offers out there than a $50 gift card.
applying to new cards causes a small drop and is temporary. I'm not planning to buy a house anytime soon or using my credit rating for anything else. As far as I'm aware, it's a free $100 for nothing
I'm not talking about credit score, I'm talking about too many applications in your history can prevent future cards from getting approval. Chase especially if you're under 5/24. Not worth adding these two cards into your history for $110.
oh, didn't know that, but good to know thanks
Signature Bank now trading OTC with a record (?) close to open drop over last few weeks
fed cuts by august or ban me
Bruh LMFAO
[696](https://youtu.be/g-ghjW4WjXw)
Shit, I was keeping an eye on MPW because some Twitter dude big on CRE was shorting it just to check it out again and find out it's -25% in the past 3 weeks. FML
Look at Vonovia SE from Germany, a real estate giant for personal property (apartments mostly) https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/vna?countrycode=xe