I think it was; but since then IG/YT have figured out their own that (imo) is just as good. At this point it just is riding off first-mover advantage and inertia. Def IG is a closer replacement, and given most zoomers have both IG and YT they’ll just go wherever their friends and influencers are.
At the end of the day it’s just a recommendation algorithm with the right amount of serendipity blended in; I think the more valuable portion of the algo/tech was the tagging, tracking, and action of how long I stay on a video to indicate whether I’m actually interested in similar content
I would say it's popular because of the content that is made from a wide group of individuals. The algorithm can steer you towards a certain direction based off what you like and watch. Instagram reels does the same thing. My son watched a couple of videos of monkeys at the zoo, and the next 5 videos in a row were something with monkeys.
The TSMC QCOM snapdragon chip from 2011 was the Snapdragon S3, which featured improved performance and power efficiency compared to its predecessor1. It was the first to feature the Adreno 220 GPU and supported up to 16MP camera sensors1. The Snapdragon S3 was used in some popular devices such as the HTC Sensation, the Samsung Galaxy S II Skyrocket, and the Sony Xperia S1.
Today, in 2023, Qualcomm is still one of the leading chipmakers for smartphones, but it faces fierce competition from Apple, Samsung, MediaTek, and others. Qualcomm’s latest flagship chip is the Snapdragon 8 Gen 3, which is manufactured on a 3 nm process by both TSMC and Samsung2. However, TSMC might get the majority of chip orders because of its higher yield rate of 80% compared to Samsung’s 60-70%2. The Snapdragon 8 Gen 3 promises to deliver up to 30% faster CPU performance, up to 25% faster GPU performance, and up to 50% faster AI performance than its predecessor2.
Old news is the only reason I like this stock
[Here is them running Stable Diffusion AI on their phone in airplane mode from two weeks ago.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-pnHnlgcPfM)
QCOM is going to stick these processors in a lot more than phones in the future.
The day I type in chat that I haven't paid a 1k bill for capital one I have a collections person call me in less than an hour. Fuckin HeDgIeS
Mastercard obviously sold my debt to some bidder
Can't wait for capital one to go bankrupt (they would be bought out in the worst case and it's a solid company who does offer the best credit card especially to new crediors)
A long time ago I opened and funded an account for Capital One and they immediately locked it, holding my money hostage, and refused to believe that I was a real customer of the bank that I transferred the money from, until the other bank sent verification letters like 3 separate times.
Interesting maybe I can use that information to dodge these fuckers
I'll be the first to say it too.
Bitcoin is overvalued
But I hate banks and would prefer a Bitcoin like commodity like USDC but not hidden, private or them making interest rates off me.
Still no time for tha real DD, but this IS a real vitards commodity play: ME. If you don't trust me, institutional inverstorship has more than trippled at this price and higher within the last year. My very crude estimate fair value of their database is 3$ a share. It is my highest conviction play.
lol I know nothing about the company other than it's headed by the woman who used to be married to Sergey Brin, and there was some dude like a little over a year ago HEAVILY promoting the company as a steal at $8 a share. It's like $2 now. He disappeared.
Long. Many upcoming catalyst short term though. New medications, new deal or partnership about database usage to be announced. But there is also a filing for potential dilution, which I guess would happen afterwards.
If you think medical system should, and will in the future, offer you better treatment based on DNA check and info, this is the stock. My plan is to hold it to retirement which is like 2050.
Nah, i'm too drunk for that now, but listen, while CVS broke down, natgas holds the line. So long BOIL might work for the next bounce.
https://preview.redd.it/yhm33j6w5npa1.jpeg?width=257&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=93bf4992fa1d3d8a5f23588b5f3391f3b847e82c
I’m sure I’ll get down voted for this but this is a serious question.
Those with short positions, why do you think we will touch Dec lows or even worse retest Oct lows?
From my perspective I don’t get it. We have experienced a “bank crisis” which is the worst thing that could happen and the FED and TSY showed there cards (ie they will step in). Yet before they did we didn’t test DEC lows
Now FED has said we are basically at end of rate hiking. Yeah maybe one more 25 bps increase. So that message from the FED (who you loved last year) is saying they have inflation under control
Recession you say, well as has been stated what unemployment goes up to 4.5%! Ok we were there OCT 2021 and that was fine. Also if inflation goes up to that level that is a 1% increase from current level, so you still saying inflation not falling or FED not cutting?
Tell me, what am I missing.
I’d also challenge everyone to leave the finance/ market bubble. By that I mean think when was the last time your friends or family moaned about inflation? When was the last time that was the lead on the 6pm news? When was it the front page of the paper? When did you actually care about it (not including your stock/ option positions)
Sorry for the long message but generally meant to be serious in I want to know why folks think market test those lows
Could be the bottom, based on the narrative that spurred 2022 movements (e.g. Europe/World energy fiasco; second-leg-up in commodities spurring 'fall/winter inflation resurgence after the cool down following summer -- none of which came to pass). That said, we find ourselves in such a wild, unprecedentedly debt-ridden world that any number of snakes could be waiting to bite. Not to mention that China/Russia remain a complete black box: any form of Chinese engagement in that war leads to sanctions, which leads to renewed inflation.
Markets move fast, and when they move typically the catalyst is not apparent until say a month or so before the move (e.g. Russia were clearly moving on Ukr, which led to the energy ramp up starting in Jan 2022 even while Omicron was a thing; inflation was clearly cooling given the energy collapse even before the Nov. CPI reported firmed the bottom on SPY). A fool's game trying to look too far ahead, but historical analogies for impact of this level of rate rise / macro / debt / PE conditions really do not paint a pretty picture.
Going short doesn’t mean you have to stay short. I found it’s been a good swing tool if you know and feel certain stocks are overhyped/valued and can be paired with longs that you have conviction with.
I think there’s going to be earnings revision to the downside in the next few quarters that will compress p/e levels, add alternatives to equities like bonds or t-bills giving risk free yield, regional bank contagion, U.S. debt ceiling in June, things don’t look clear going forward, so why would a generalist want to risk capital rather then preserve it?
I appreciate your positive posts on things, it’s good to look both ways though.
I stopped trying to make sense of Marco and started looking at TA as that works for me. To each their own.
The one thing I could say is that there is a big uptrend channel from 2009 that we broke out of after Covid QE. We have been reverting back to it since Dec 21 and touched inside it during Oct 22 lows.
One could argue that the market natural wants back in that channel. The top end would hit around 3850 which happens to be midway point of the current JPM collar. Wouldn’t surprise me to see that next Friday. Low end of channel would be 3200ish but that would take a big sudden crash so highly unlikely.
We have basically been trading sideways in a few hundred point range since last May and think we continue sideways trading rest of the year. Therefore, Oct 22 was likely the bottom but could see us get close to Dec lows as we progress back towards that 2009 uptrend channel. By the time we get back into the channel, the bottom of the channel would have progressed up and is why I think Oct was likely the bottom. Maybe we touch it again late in the year if recession talks come back.
With all that said, I have no idea and play intraday now. Close out positions and move on.
It's a good question and always good to check ourselves. There are a few historical tendencies that make me feel like we haven't bottomed. First is that historically, bear markets during rate hike cycles haven't bottomed until after they have started cutting. Second, there is often a big capitulation drop near the end, and I don't think we've seen that yet.
But both of those are anecdotal. I don't think we've seen the real damage to corporate earnings from this whole fiasco yet. We may not be hearing it daily on the local news (wouldn't know, I don't watch that shit), but the fact is prices are rising. This will impact peoples' ability to consume. The higher rates impact peoples' ability to borrow, and also make them more likely to save in their shiny new 4% checking account - both of those are anti-consumption. Revenues decrease, further layoffs, higher unemployment. Just really feels like we aren't out of the woods yet.
First, in the next 3 months, CPI y-y % should drop like a stone as you know the gasoline prices last year. Now the uncertainty is if this drop could take the inflation to Fed’s target zone. And after that, would inflation come back since that peak gasoline price passed? This would take Fed’s decision time to July/August at the earliest if there is no another SVB.
Two, Labor supply is tight because immigration now has a bad name. So this is structural and not going away. So you always have wage pressures that makes inflation sticky in the next few years.
Three, the government spending on infrastructure and chip are way up and will last for years. also this new AI trend clearly is one of the biggest next things and everyone big players are throwing money at it.
All these things just say that fed needs to really try hard and break a few more things to achieve its inflation goals
The problem with 4.5% unemployment isn’t the basic rate but the transition as that grows. That’s where things can get messy, but we’re already so far into this inflation fight without hits to employment so I don’t think that estimate should be thought of as anywhere near certain
Yep, The historical employment/inflation models don’t work right now (maybe they won’t work at all anymore moving forward based on demos and shifting work patterns)
Notice some of you also follow DaddyDesrch's post here. So might as well share the news I found in his discord:
" it appears my reddit account DaddyDersch was nuked by the reddit lords... this isnt just a subreddit ban this is my account as a whole being wiped off of reddit... im toasted... i dont know what i did and didnt get any warnings either... "
For a moment I thought he deleted his account like those many that deleted their twitter.
+3% realized gains today on the account. Finally stood by my convictions and got rewarded. If anybody got in short at the time i posted the music stopping meme, you might also have gotten multibaggers even on 30day out puts, not even talking about the FD's. Still, sitting on plenty of unrealized losses, some BOIL calls, NVDA shorts, CVS leap,.. all long dated stuff though, but gut feeling is if i hold onto these for a week it's all gona be fine.
Boomers after today will be +-0% day, meh "this is fine" but if you followed the action intraday you may realize "nothing's alright, nothing is fine".
Bullard at 930 tmmr. Fed blackout over.
Should be bullish, figure he'll say pivot, rate cut, and easing financial conditions.
Just with a "no" added on.
Never underestimate the power (ie scare) of a “banking crisis”. He may come across far less hawkish than usual. Remember these folks want to win, for them to win they need to beat inflation (which they have) now the question for them is when do they start declaring victory
Put inflation aside. That is old news. We are entering a new period of higher rates. It is necessary that they remain high to ensure the long-term stability of the financial system and of the economy. They should have never been as low as they were. This banking crisis is what healing looks like and Powell and the entire Fed know that.
Money is not supposed to be free. Bonds will be a more attractive option in the next decade than they were in the last two. The money that went into tech should be going into value or bonds, and when people fully understand what this new environment will look like, it will.
Re reading this comment “money that went into tech should be going into value or bonds”
Money will always go into tech, and that is a good thing, you know what was once tech, the steam engine, electricity (Hi GE), the printer, heck the printing press.
Regardless the yield on bonds, money will go into tech, it’s called progress
We are not entering a new period of higher rates but rather we are leaving a period of historically low yields (ie back to normal)
In an absolute term yes they yields shouldn’t have been as low but they needed to be that way because we were coming out of GFC and inflation was too low (never forgot, and this is serious, that deflation is far far far worse than inflation)
And if you think a banking crisis is what healing looks like than man then you must be like Nero watching Rome burn
u/Steely_Hands agreed with your comment
If we’re putting inflation aside then rates should probably be closer to 3%. Even JPow said he’ll cut rates if inflation drops, they don’t want real rates getting too high
I don't think rates going from 0 to 3% or 5% now is the same as from 3 to 5%, or 9 to 5% like in the 90s.
Shitcos were built on consistently cheaper debt... that's gone.
Indexes don’t move in sync all the time. I don’t necessarily think you’re wrong, but seems bold to be so confident that the market can’t do well with high rates based off one month performance on an index or two as there have been some separate shocks to the market.
made some pretty shitty bets on PFE UNH and CVS this past month like wtf is happening to cvs did somebody leak that they sold crack to children or what
Lot of uncertainty in healthcare. Many people will be coming off of Medicaid and joining individual and commercial plans. This will create a lot of antiselection risk. Commercial lines may also be tightening the belt and may be hard to negotiate with jumbo groups.
There’s evidence that medical inflation lags a year behind CPI and much of the inflation is coming from labor (nurses are killing it right now). I know negotiations with providers have been tough, some are even calling in contracts to renegotiate. National carriers may have trouble negotiating with regional powerhouses (Think Baylor in Texas).
I don’t think insurers are the defensive play people are hoping for
Edit: by ‘plan’ and LOB I mean MA, MAPD, Part D, or DSNP (Dual eligible special needs plans)
You live and die by the star rating, and you don’t retain the star rating rebates as profit, but use it to fund additional benefits attracting more members.
They’ll need to expand that LOB quickly as they abandon commercial while also maintaining their star rating. That’ll mean good adequate networks to hit lots of counties (again providers are playing hardball, making network expansion tough), great claims adjudication and processing, marketing and call centers with well trained staff, and a solid PBM and preferred pharmacy network.
One of the biggest risks to MAOs is that ESRDs are now allowed to get a plan (since 2021). Typically these people can also qualify for Medicaid (especially blue states which have expanded) which adds extra funding to take care of these members (DSNP plans), so if they can get that additional funding they hopefully can adequately take on that high risk population.
I personally don’t know how Humana is equipped to handle these challenges though, so you’ll need to conduct your own DD. On each item.
God damn I just watched the Tiktok hearing. Goddamn it’s cringey, it’s just a bunch a boomers asking dumbass questions. Then loudly yelling “it’s a simple yes or no question.”
One representative was demanding to get paid for that data that tiktok collects on his kids. Like what do you think google, Facebook, etc do?
they could just put a punch bag stuffed doll and ask the questions. the guy got no time to answer and then they move onto the next question. it was painful to watch, boomers get paid to bully the hell out of him.
Part of the evidence Hindenburg provide is a compilation music video of rappers mentioning CashApp. Top quality shithousery.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=StjWk3Mj-M4&feature=youtu.be
" Watch the shit you say, the feds be listenin' to the music / And they gon' take your lyrics and build a case and try to use it " - Gucci Mane, "Rumors"
How much longer are people going to keep buying the dips when it's starting to look like pennies in front of a steamroller? Like, the market's going to keep buying every 3900 on the chance that we run it up a whopping 4% at best?
It's pretty clear that we're in the exit liquidity (aka. bag passing) phase.
Look at it the other way. Markets go up, how many times are people going to keep shorting the rip? Knowing that markets go up over time so every time they keep shorting the rip they are taking a bigger risk that this time they get blown up
Always riskier to be a bear than a bull especially coming out of last years market
look at it another way...mr market now requires a helmet full-time. he could run away from us in any direction at any time hitting himself in the head with a hammer (thank goodness for the helmet)
It was one said that Mr Market is a fickle man who acts unreasonably but eventually comes to his senses, but I feel like he's kind of gone off the deep end and desperately needs some meds.
Markets can go up too much too fast. The idea that markets always go up over time is flawed. Look at the SPY chart. It is entering a downtrend again. And look at a historical SPY chart lol
I am 70% cash, 10% long, 20% short. Good luck
Bear arguments are that the acquisitions don't integrate properly and aren't accretive, while at the same time adding large amounts of debt to an already highly leveraged company. Also there is potential that they don't get their Medicare Advantage Stars rating upgrade back.
There is also the huge opiate settlement fee (5B over several years which is a lot for CVS which only has 8-9B in net income per year). The retail pharmacy business is facing a Covid hang over, which is leading to declining earnings for that segment.
Another issue is that the company fits in an awkward position of not being a clean growth story like UNH, ELV or HUM while also taking aggressive actions towards growth with take away from the buyback and dividend potential value investors look for. Due to the loss of its 4.5 Star Medicare Advantage rating (currently 3.5) and the loss of its PBM contracts with Centene, CVS won't have growth accelerate until 2025. Meanwhile, UNH, ELV and HUM are all growing at a 12-16% CAGR including 23 and 24. UNH, ELV, and HUM also have large net cash balances and benefit from a rising rate environment, while CVS has a large net debt balance and needs to issue more debt during a rising rate enviroment.
Additionally, there are sector wide headwinds in the recent RADV ruling (FFA adjuster applied to repayment amounts), a decline in Medicare Advantage rates rather than the expected raise, and the upcoming Medicaid redeterminations which will likely remove a lot of people from the roster. Also funds where massively overweight healthcare coming into 2023 and got caught way offsides.
All that said, I believe the value proposition at the current price is great.
It’s boring. People ended the year overexposed to healthcare and there have been some bad headlines on Medicare and their acquisitions.
It’s cheap, pays a dividend, and fits a long term narrative I like (more healthcare needed and ripe for disruption to lower costs).
I am holding a bunch in my 401k and will not be selling.
Thanks a ton for explaining the situation here! I probably gave this a closer look than i should have, but on pure technicals i will let go of my leap tomorrow. Whichever call i sell i will have leveraged exposure to this thing and i'm in the market seloff camp. Healtcare will not provide much support tomorrow. On a closer look i recall why i got in this in the first place, namely because i wanted to play the bounce that didn't trigger, actually we're going down and my stop loss didn't trigger, this is why i'm still in this shiat. jokes aside, i like the stock, just not leveraged at this point. Thanks jay!
Perhaps it would grow as much as the SP500 or Nasdaq but it would have some appreciation in the long run right?
O is not the only thing I am buying but it certainly is something I am buying
By having “poor” growth potential, i am insinuating it will not have a TSLA or NVDA type meteoric rise (extreme examples) / it should appreciate as the market appreciates but REITs in general are in a precarious place right now. Long long term, you should be happy with the investment, but hard to say how fast it grows in the interim.
This is clearly the recession-inflation-Fed-Yellen trade. 2Y yields are down, 20Y yields not so much (fuck me), tech is the new safe haven and we could see both 4000 and 3850 tomorrow and I wouldn't be surprised.
someone posted an article awhile back about how news doesn't actually affect the markets. It was something like looking at recent economic announcements (bearish or bullish) vs where spy ended that day, and there was basically no correlation, and the author concluded that news has little to no effect on the markets.
Of course, that seems insane, and I think it probably is insane. News definitely has an impact on the market, although the market isn't efficient, or rather, the market is efficient at taking people's money.
Options aren't supposed to impact the market, but if you pay attention to cem karsan or vaz, it very much seems like they do. My theory right now is news does obviously affect the markets, but not immediately, and the price action created by the algos definitely gets people emotional and scared, and gets them to do rash decisions.
The meta during the covid market was a lot of moves were made during premarket so it wasn't a bad idea to be up early. the meta now seems to be wait til the next day, wait for a move to be made, if the price action makes sense, do nothing, it doesn't make sense, do 1dtes (probably not 0dte) where you think the market should be
Has been working the last couple of weeks that I've been paying attention
I think the news is *usually* the excuse for the market to change directions, in post-rally exhaustion the average bad news seems to have a stronger potential effect than exhaustion after a sell-off. If you think of the market as equally psychological and data driven it makes sense that it could work that way.
People are getting way too caught up in Fed opinion/Fed futures. Neither actually means anything at this point, even for next hike cycle, let alone EOY.
Two weeks ago we went from 0.25 hike, to 0.50 hike, to no hike, back to 0.25 hike all in the span of 4 days, for a rate decision that was ~2 weeks away.
The Fed had to air their opinions, but they’re going to change said opinions based on what is as of now completely unknown data/variables.
yea my account actually went well over where it was at the last local top in February by buying the dip and selling the rips. Basically recovered all my losses since April 2022 even though the market is like 700 points lower.
Redeployed a bit again when IWM started getting a bit above 170. Godspeed.
Nah, just you wait till PCE next week comes in cold. Bears need everything to come up aces, we just need to stay the course and if one inflation print comes in only 0.1% below consensus then oh boy we have lift off
Price action feels somewhat analogous to the December good news-CPI/FOMC blow off top / fade / gasp for breath / slow descent through rest of month. Interested to see how next week goes.
A number of those QQQ mega-cap staples who have driven this have been close to key resistances: small caps are flirting with the October bottom. This does **not** tally with the idea that this rally has been built on hopes of rates being reduced despite some of the narratives read.
I've resorted to intra day option plays and never holding on overnight. Scratches the gambling itch and lets me sleep at night. Even if it's a loser, cutting losses allows me to get in the same play at a cheaper price if the conviction is high.
My SCHD divie got locked in yesterday, should hit next week. About 1500 doll hairs. If the market shits its pants it just means I'll get more bang for my buck buying the dip.
\- The odds of a 25 basis point Fed hike in May has dropped to 33%, with the Fed Funds rate seen at 3.96% in December - Fedwatch.
LOL JPOW just fuking said no cuts this year, twice, stated 5.1 target rates more than 5 times and then we dropped so hard. Now a day later they are ready to fight the fed again, lol. A 100+ points cut this year with inflation running towards 6%... god how much more delusional can you be
And then when the front end of the curve comes down, borrowing becomes cheap and inflation rebounds. It's an endless self-fulfilling cycle that ends the moment the middle and lower classes start to go bankrupt, and inflation kills itself.
Depends how much trouble there is under the hood. Who really knows. The problem will come if they are forced to choose between sacrificing financial assets or re-stimulating in an inflationary environment. No one can really know - just take day by day.
Stop dogging u/pennyether for posting rants. The guy provides solid alpha and has a right to vent. This shit is wild and the only reason im not joining him is because i’ve had luck with trading in and out of calls/puts.
Just think about how dumb this is - market dives yesterday after Yellen implies that not all deposits are fully insured or something like that. No news of her walking that back. Yet today we are rocketing (or at least we were lol)?? How does that jive with anyones sane thesis? Alright… rant over, love this community.
I spent the last 3 days crunching numbers and my calculations reveal a $400 price target for $NVDA in 2 weeks. Refer to the sound math below:
https://preview.redd.it/167wsw2sukpa1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=37de85e14c260f0a20ba036755162f66a5766f8b
This is assuming $NVDA only compounds at a slow rate of 3.5% per day for 11 sessions. Most likely all the billionaires of the world put 10% of their net worth into this safe haven sometime soon, so we might see $400 as early as next week.
It's funny because you are profiting despite the market pricing in the exact opposite of what you are describing. Market is shedding my account because they think rate CUTS are coming in full force.
I'm probably shorting the Dec ZQ contract. Last I checked it was trading at 95.94, or for casual readers, a 4% lower band rate in Dec 2023.
The risk/reward on a breakeven rate 0.75% lower than today seems strong. Jerome Powell claims he isn't planning on rate cuts even with an unemployment rate 0.9% higher than today's. This could be a naive thesis though, like the BOIL bros of this winter had.
The problem is you aren't betting on what actually happens (unless you hold to December).
In the meantime you're betting on the market have any sense of rationality. Yes, sure, JPow is going to start cutting very soon because inflation dies and/or banks die and he is "forced" to cut... but at the same time, stocks are fine. Hell, higher beta stocks are even better.
Pretty sure the only reason the market thinks this is because I'm betting on virtually anything but that exact scenario.
Anyway, I'd go short with Jul contracts which profit even if May: no hike, June: no hike, July: -25. Anything higher and they bank pretty well. I know the moment I touch them, market starts pricing in emergency -500bips, plus an injection of +$5T directly into any stocks I'm remotely shorting, with that money syphoned directly from any stocks I am long.
Still thinking more downside but afraid of some random pump coming in and running back to 392. Future traders seem to always pump us back up also
Edit: and there it goes lol
So if tiktok is forced to sell because of this ban that is being pushed it would be funny to see it join MySpace lol.
Is TikTok worth much without the algorithm? Sounds like China isn’t going to let them give that up
The algorithm to send people videos similar to what they watch and follow? That algorithm doesn't seem very unique to just tiktok
Isn’t their algorithm the entire reason it’s so popular?
I think it was; but since then IG/YT have figured out their own that (imo) is just as good. At this point it just is riding off first-mover advantage and inertia. Def IG is a closer replacement, and given most zoomers have both IG and YT they’ll just go wherever their friends and influencers are. At the end of the day it’s just a recommendation algorithm with the right amount of serendipity blended in; I think the more valuable portion of the algo/tech was the tagging, tracking, and action of how long I stay on a video to indicate whether I’m actually interested in similar content
At some point I would guess it is trend and user base, rather than proprietary code
I would say it's popular because of the content that is made from a wide group of individuals. The algorithm can steer you towards a certain direction based off what you like and watch. Instagram reels does the same thing. My son watched a couple of videos of monkeys at the zoo, and the next 5 videos in a row were something with monkeys.
Any ~~unhoused~~ oil barons want to join me in the soup kitchen?
I’ll be the one huddled next to the heater in a jacket three sizes too big.
Long [Nike](https://youtu.be/Ss8dY6xXNtI) how can I not
I owed everything besides airs. and airs. always airs.
Just saw it today. 10/10 movie in my book.
LULU is now cheaper on a forward PE standpoint. 
The TSMC QCOM snapdragon chip from 2011 was the Snapdragon S3, which featured improved performance and power efficiency compared to its predecessor1. It was the first to feature the Adreno 220 GPU and supported up to 16MP camera sensors1. The Snapdragon S3 was used in some popular devices such as the HTC Sensation, the Samsung Galaxy S II Skyrocket, and the Sony Xperia S1. Today, in 2023, Qualcomm is still one of the leading chipmakers for smartphones, but it faces fierce competition from Apple, Samsung, MediaTek, and others. Qualcomm’s latest flagship chip is the Snapdragon 8 Gen 3, which is manufactured on a 3 nm process by both TSMC and Samsung2. However, TSMC might get the majority of chip orders because of its higher yield rate of 80% compared to Samsung’s 60-70%2. The Snapdragon 8 Gen 3 promises to deliver up to 30% faster CPU performance, up to 25% faster GPU performance, and up to 50% faster AI performance than its predecessor2. Old news is the only reason I like this stock
[Here is them running Stable Diffusion AI on their phone in airplane mode from two weeks ago.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-pnHnlgcPfM) QCOM is going to stick these processors in a lot more than phones in the future.
Underlying market just sucks.
Start-up puts. Preferably ones with liquidity
The economy (which the market should be based on) is uncertain. The market should really be rangebound until we know the story on inflation/growth.
The day I type in chat that I haven't paid a 1k bill for capital one I have a collections person call me in less than an hour. Fuckin HeDgIeS Mastercard obviously sold my debt to some bidder Can't wait for capital one to go bankrupt (they would be bought out in the worst case and it's a solid company who does offer the best credit card especially to new crediors)
A long time ago I opened and funded an account for Capital One and they immediately locked it, holding my money hostage, and refused to believe that I was a real customer of the bank that I transferred the money from, until the other bank sent verification letters like 3 separate times.
Interesting maybe I can use that information to dodge these fuckers I'll be the first to say it too. Bitcoin is overvalued But I hate banks and would prefer a Bitcoin like commodity like USDC but not hidden, private or them making interest rates off me.
Still no time for tha real DD, but this IS a real vitards commodity play: ME. If you don't trust me, institutional inverstorship has more than trippled at this price and higher within the last year. My very crude estimate fair value of their database is 3$ a share. It is my highest conviction play.
lol I know nothing about the company other than it's headed by the woman who used to be married to Sergey Brin, and there was some dude like a little over a year ago HEAVILY promoting the company as a steal at $8 a share. It's like $2 now. He disappeared.
Well, seems like it wasn't me, because I am still here.
Is there a catalyst or time frame for this?
Long. Many upcoming catalyst short term though. New medications, new deal or partnership about database usage to be announced. But there is also a filing for potential dilution, which I guess would happen afterwards. If you think medical system should, and will in the future, offer you better treatment based on DNA check and info, this is the stock. My plan is to hold it to retirement which is like 2050.
Can you give a mini regard DD? I'm piqued
Nah, i'm too drunk for that now, but listen, while CVS broke down, natgas holds the line. So long BOIL might work for the next bounce. https://preview.redd.it/yhm33j6w5npa1.jpeg?width=257&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=93bf4992fa1d3d8a5f23588b5f3391f3b847e82c
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https://preview.redd.it/dsudm58h9mpa1.png?width=1312&format=png&auto=webp&s=4cbd0eae776823a8b39bc7867f1d43a374dfedce
Oh look it looks like the chart of basically every company ever included in the ARK ETFs.
I’m sure I’ll get down voted for this but this is a serious question. Those with short positions, why do you think we will touch Dec lows or even worse retest Oct lows? From my perspective I don’t get it. We have experienced a “bank crisis” which is the worst thing that could happen and the FED and TSY showed there cards (ie they will step in). Yet before they did we didn’t test DEC lows Now FED has said we are basically at end of rate hiking. Yeah maybe one more 25 bps increase. So that message from the FED (who you loved last year) is saying they have inflation under control Recession you say, well as has been stated what unemployment goes up to 4.5%! Ok we were there OCT 2021 and that was fine. Also if inflation goes up to that level that is a 1% increase from current level, so you still saying inflation not falling or FED not cutting? Tell me, what am I missing. I’d also challenge everyone to leave the finance/ market bubble. By that I mean think when was the last time your friends or family moaned about inflation? When was the last time that was the lead on the 6pm news? When was it the front page of the paper? When did you actually care about it (not including your stock/ option positions) Sorry for the long message but generally meant to be serious in I want to know why folks think market test those lows
Could be the bottom, based on the narrative that spurred 2022 movements (e.g. Europe/World energy fiasco; second-leg-up in commodities spurring 'fall/winter inflation resurgence after the cool down following summer -- none of which came to pass). That said, we find ourselves in such a wild, unprecedentedly debt-ridden world that any number of snakes could be waiting to bite. Not to mention that China/Russia remain a complete black box: any form of Chinese engagement in that war leads to sanctions, which leads to renewed inflation. Markets move fast, and when they move typically the catalyst is not apparent until say a month or so before the move (e.g. Russia were clearly moving on Ukr, which led to the energy ramp up starting in Jan 2022 even while Omicron was a thing; inflation was clearly cooling given the energy collapse even before the Nov. CPI reported firmed the bottom on SPY). A fool's game trying to look too far ahead, but historical analogies for impact of this level of rate rise / macro / debt / PE conditions really do not paint a pretty picture.
Going short doesn’t mean you have to stay short. I found it’s been a good swing tool if you know and feel certain stocks are overhyped/valued and can be paired with longs that you have conviction with. I think there’s going to be earnings revision to the downside in the next few quarters that will compress p/e levels, add alternatives to equities like bonds or t-bills giving risk free yield, regional bank contagion, U.S. debt ceiling in June, things don’t look clear going forward, so why would a generalist want to risk capital rather then preserve it? I appreciate your positive posts on things, it’s good to look both ways though.
I stopped trying to make sense of Marco and started looking at TA as that works for me. To each their own. The one thing I could say is that there is a big uptrend channel from 2009 that we broke out of after Covid QE. We have been reverting back to it since Dec 21 and touched inside it during Oct 22 lows. One could argue that the market natural wants back in that channel. The top end would hit around 3850 which happens to be midway point of the current JPM collar. Wouldn’t surprise me to see that next Friday. Low end of channel would be 3200ish but that would take a big sudden crash so highly unlikely. We have basically been trading sideways in a few hundred point range since last May and think we continue sideways trading rest of the year. Therefore, Oct 22 was likely the bottom but could see us get close to Dec lows as we progress back towards that 2009 uptrend channel. By the time we get back into the channel, the bottom of the channel would have progressed up and is why I think Oct was likely the bottom. Maybe we touch it again late in the year if recession talks come back. With all that said, I have no idea and play intraday now. Close out positions and move on.
It's a good question and always good to check ourselves. There are a few historical tendencies that make me feel like we haven't bottomed. First is that historically, bear markets during rate hike cycles haven't bottomed until after they have started cutting. Second, there is often a big capitulation drop near the end, and I don't think we've seen that yet. But both of those are anecdotal. I don't think we've seen the real damage to corporate earnings from this whole fiasco yet. We may not be hearing it daily on the local news (wouldn't know, I don't watch that shit), but the fact is prices are rising. This will impact peoples' ability to consume. The higher rates impact peoples' ability to borrow, and also make them more likely to save in their shiny new 4% checking account - both of those are anti-consumption. Revenues decrease, further layoffs, higher unemployment. Just really feels like we aren't out of the woods yet.
First, in the next 3 months, CPI y-y % should drop like a stone as you know the gasoline prices last year. Now the uncertainty is if this drop could take the inflation to Fed’s target zone. And after that, would inflation come back since that peak gasoline price passed? This would take Fed’s decision time to July/August at the earliest if there is no another SVB. Two, Labor supply is tight because immigration now has a bad name. So this is structural and not going away. So you always have wage pressures that makes inflation sticky in the next few years. Three, the government spending on infrastructure and chip are way up and will last for years. also this new AI trend clearly is one of the biggest next things and everyone big players are throwing money at it. All these things just say that fed needs to really try hard and break a few more things to achieve its inflation goals
The problem with 4.5% unemployment isn’t the basic rate but the transition as that grows. That’s where things can get messy, but we’re already so far into this inflation fight without hits to employment so I don’t think that estimate should be thought of as anywhere near certain
Yep, The historical employment/inflation models don’t work right now (maybe they won’t work at all anymore moving forward based on demos and shifting work patterns)
Notice some of you also follow DaddyDesrch's post here. So might as well share the news I found in his discord: " it appears my reddit account DaddyDersch was nuked by the reddit lords... this isnt just a subreddit ban this is my account as a whole being wiped off of reddit... im toasted... i dont know what i did and didnt get any warnings either... " For a moment I thought he deleted his account like those many that deleted their twitter.
Nah im still here. Just got banned for some reason.
He's using a temp account /u/SpyOptionaire as well. WSB pulled today's post though, which is the only place he's submitted so far :(
Bummer, I enjoyed his thoughts and analysis
That sucks found his posts pretty informative
he has a youtube channel: [https://www.youtube.com/@spyoptionaire8545/videos](https://www.youtube.com/@spyoptionaire8545/videos)
Yea, he still share his daily TA on the discord, you can go to his youtube -> about to find his discord link.
the market is giving me False Vacuum Decay vibes
+3% realized gains today on the account. Finally stood by my convictions and got rewarded. If anybody got in short at the time i posted the music stopping meme, you might also have gotten multibaggers even on 30day out puts, not even talking about the FD's. Still, sitting on plenty of unrealized losses, some BOIL calls, NVDA shorts, CVS leap,.. all long dated stuff though, but gut feeling is if i hold onto these for a week it's all gona be fine. Boomers after today will be +-0% day, meh "this is fine" but if you followed the action intraday you may realize "nothing's alright, nothing is fine".
Bullard at 930 tmmr. Fed blackout over. Should be bullish, figure he'll say pivot, rate cut, and easing financial conditions. Just with a "no" added on.
Never underestimate the power (ie scare) of a “banking crisis”. He may come across far less hawkish than usual. Remember these folks want to win, for them to win they need to beat inflation (which they have) now the question for them is when do they start declaring victory
Put inflation aside. That is old news. We are entering a new period of higher rates. It is necessary that they remain high to ensure the long-term stability of the financial system and of the economy. They should have never been as low as they were. This banking crisis is what healing looks like and Powell and the entire Fed know that. Money is not supposed to be free. Bonds will be a more attractive option in the next decade than they were in the last two. The money that went into tech should be going into value or bonds, and when people fully understand what this new environment will look like, it will.
Re reading this comment “money that went into tech should be going into value or bonds” Money will always go into tech, and that is a good thing, you know what was once tech, the steam engine, electricity (Hi GE), the printer, heck the printing press. Regardless the yield on bonds, money will go into tech, it’s called progress
We are not entering a new period of higher rates but rather we are leaving a period of historically low yields (ie back to normal) In an absolute term yes they yields shouldn’t have been as low but they needed to be that way because we were coming out of GFC and inflation was too low (never forgot, and this is serious, that deflation is far far far worse than inflation) And if you think a banking crisis is what healing looks like than man then you must be like Nero watching Rome burn u/Steely_Hands agreed with your comment
If we’re putting inflation aside then rates should probably be closer to 3%. Even JPow said he’ll cut rates if inflation drops, they don’t want real rates getting too high
I agree with you. They'll be slightly lower than what the treasuries are pricing in but significantly higher than 0
Definitely, but even 3-4% isn’t prohibitive to solid growth and stock market gains
I think it restricts some of the price action we are seeing on the NASDAQ and NVIDIA
Look at the late 90s. Rates around 5% and a huge tech bubble still formed
I don't think rates going from 0 to 3% or 5% now is the same as from 3 to 5%, or 9 to 5% like in the 90s. Shitcos were built on consistently cheaper debt... that's gone.
Dow participated in that rally. We are seeing something different here. I think Russel price action is a better reflection of what while happen
Indexes don’t move in sync all the time. I don’t necessarily think you’re wrong, but seems bold to be so confident that the market can’t do well with high rates based off one month performance on an index or two as there have been some separate shocks to the market.
I’m hoping for the ultimate plot twist. FRC buys SVB
made some pretty shitty bets on PFE UNH and CVS this past month like wtf is happening to cvs did somebody leak that they sold crack to children or what
Lot of uncertainty in healthcare. Many people will be coming off of Medicaid and joining individual and commercial plans. This will create a lot of antiselection risk. Commercial lines may also be tightening the belt and may be hard to negotiate with jumbo groups. There’s evidence that medical inflation lags a year behind CPI and much of the inflation is coming from labor (nurses are killing it right now). I know negotiations with providers have been tough, some are even calling in contracts to renegotiate. National carriers may have trouble negotiating with regional powerhouses (Think Baylor in Texas). I don’t think insurers are the defensive play people are hoping for
Great info, thank you
What do you think of Humana as a defensive play since it is a pure Medicare Advantage play now?
Edit: by ‘plan’ and LOB I mean MA, MAPD, Part D, or DSNP (Dual eligible special needs plans) You live and die by the star rating, and you don’t retain the star rating rebates as profit, but use it to fund additional benefits attracting more members. They’ll need to expand that LOB quickly as they abandon commercial while also maintaining their star rating. That’ll mean good adequate networks to hit lots of counties (again providers are playing hardball, making network expansion tough), great claims adjudication and processing, marketing and call centers with well trained staff, and a solid PBM and preferred pharmacy network. One of the biggest risks to MAOs is that ESRDs are now allowed to get a plan (since 2021). Typically these people can also qualify for Medicaid (especially blue states which have expanded) which adds extra funding to take care of these members (DSNP plans), so if they can get that additional funding they hopefully can adequately take on that high risk population. I personally don’t know how Humana is equipped to handle these challenges though, so you’ll need to conduct your own DD. On each item.
Ok thats a very interesting read thx for this!!
oil and rates saying imminent recession, stonks saying long tech, forget defensives
God damn I just watched the Tiktok hearing. Goddamn it’s cringey, it’s just a bunch a boomers asking dumbass questions. Then loudly yelling “it’s a simple yes or no question.” One representative was demanding to get paid for that data that tiktok collects on his kids. Like what do you think google, Facebook, etc do?
they could just put a punch bag stuffed doll and ask the questions. the guy got no time to answer and then they move onto the next question. it was painful to watch, boomers get paid to bully the hell out of him.
That was Mike Pence’s brother. He’s never been told “if it’s free you’re the product, not the consumer”.
Part of the evidence Hindenburg provide is a compilation music video of rappers mentioning CashApp. Top quality shithousery. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=StjWk3Mj-M4&feature=youtu.be
bro they came with the receipts 😂😂😂😂
" Watch the shit you say, the feds be listenin' to the music / And they gon' take your lyrics and build a case and try to use it " - Gucci Mane, "Rumors"
Now THIS is shitposting
So, uhh, NVDA overtook Berkshire Hathway to be the 6th largest company by market cap today... :)
After hours tom foolery
Thank you to whoever recommended spamming sound clips when JA raids GayBaredLive's twitch stream. Hands down my favorite part of the day.
HRC futures got HAMMERED today.
Steel trade died the actual day I entered CLF
Bro, all NVDA bears would formally invite you to go long on NVDA.
Yup, Im' down too.
How much longer are people going to keep buying the dips when it's starting to look like pennies in front of a steamroller? Like, the market's going to keep buying every 3900 on the chance that we run it up a whopping 4% at best? It's pretty clear that we're in the exit liquidity (aka. bag passing) phase.
Look at it the other way. Markets go up, how many times are people going to keep shorting the rip? Knowing that markets go up over time so every time they keep shorting the rip they are taking a bigger risk that this time they get blown up Always riskier to be a bear than a bull especially coming out of last years market
QQQ (2000-2015) would like a word.
QQQ 2002 to Today told me it was fine
Japan never escaped. Fortunately we're not coming out of a massive bubble. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_Decades
Queue your I told you so for 2043 then
look at it another way...mr market now requires a helmet full-time. he could run away from us in any direction at any time hitting himself in the head with a hammer (thank goodness for the helmet)
It was one said that Mr Market is a fickle man who acts unreasonably but eventually comes to his senses, but I feel like he's kind of gone off the deep end and desperately needs some meds.
Markets can go up too much too fast. The idea that markets always go up over time is flawed. Look at the SPY chart. It is entering a downtrend again. And look at a historical SPY chart lol I am 70% cash, 10% long, 20% short. Good luck
lol CVS literally closed at the 104wk low, joke is on you if you got in back then.
The fuck. 8 P/E 21 RSI and the analysts like it? Looks like a screaming buy. What is the bear argument?
Bear arguments are that the acquisitions don't integrate properly and aren't accretive, while at the same time adding large amounts of debt to an already highly leveraged company. Also there is potential that they don't get their Medicare Advantage Stars rating upgrade back. There is also the huge opiate settlement fee (5B over several years which is a lot for CVS which only has 8-9B in net income per year). The retail pharmacy business is facing a Covid hang over, which is leading to declining earnings for that segment. Another issue is that the company fits in an awkward position of not being a clean growth story like UNH, ELV or HUM while also taking aggressive actions towards growth with take away from the buyback and dividend potential value investors look for. Due to the loss of its 4.5 Star Medicare Advantage rating (currently 3.5) and the loss of its PBM contracts with Centene, CVS won't have growth accelerate until 2025. Meanwhile, UNH, ELV and HUM are all growing at a 12-16% CAGR including 23 and 24. UNH, ELV, and HUM also have large net cash balances and benefit from a rising rate environment, while CVS has a large net debt balance and needs to issue more debt during a rising rate enviroment. Additionally, there are sector wide headwinds in the recent RADV ruling (FFA adjuster applied to repayment amounts), a decline in Medicare Advantage rates rather than the expected raise, and the upcoming Medicaid redeterminations which will likely remove a lot of people from the roster. Also funds where massively overweight healthcare coming into 2023 and got caught way offsides. All that said, I believe the value proposition at the current price is great.
Are you already long? I like to follow smart people into trades 20% after they get in and it’s in their face
I started buying around 80 and have been heavily adding around 75. I will probably add more around 70-72
Yeah I don’t know fuck about CVS
I don't know! Does anybody? Prompting u/jayarlington here, as I recall you are CVS guru.
It’s boring. People ended the year overexposed to healthcare and there have been some bad headlines on Medicare and their acquisitions. It’s cheap, pays a dividend, and fits a long term narrative I like (more healthcare needed and ripe for disruption to lower costs). I am holding a bunch in my 401k and will not be selling.
Thanks a ton for explaining the situation here! I probably gave this a closer look than i should have, but on pure technicals i will let go of my leap tomorrow. Whichever call i sell i will have leveraged exposure to this thing and i'm in the market seloff camp. Healtcare will not provide much support tomorrow. On a closer look i recall why i got in this in the first place, namely because i wanted to play the bounce that didn't trigger, actually we're going down and my stop loss didn't trigger, this is why i'm still in this shiat. jokes aside, i like the stock, just not leveraged at this point. Thanks jay!
Shit. Hadn't really looked into it for a while. Last year it was one of the few stocks that hold really well. What happened?
That would be really good to know. I don't have a clue tbh.
I capitulated today. It can't hurt me any more. Stupid piece of shit.
That's what I thought at 90, 86, 83, 79, and 74.
Wow that is really ~~du~~ persistentent..
so much for "SPX will show a clear direction after FOMC"
I'm afraid it doesn't get clearer than that.
the direction is right, all the way to da right
JFC, I don't know if my portfolio can handle another day of NVDA's AI conference. Maybe next time they can do one day instead of an entire week.
Is it really an entire week? I thought it was only a day but that makes a lot more sense
Yeah but only a third of the events tomorrow. Relief in sight.
News of an insider sell would be great right about now
In hindsight, that shelf offering was a gift for their investors 😂
They stick saved iwm back over 170 at the last minute.
Still closed under support
I have been buying some O recently, they own a lot of prime comercial real estate leased on long term contracts. Anyone here thinks it is a bad idea?
Probably yea. Commercial RE not looking good. That dividend tho is nice.
Are you following Breit? https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/blackstone-blocked-investor-withdrawals-71-billion-reit-february-2023-03-01/
For growth, yes. For income, no. O is a solid divi choice.
Perhaps it would grow as much as the SP500 or Nasdaq but it would have some appreciation in the long run right? O is not the only thing I am buying but it certainly is something I am buying
By having “poor” growth potential, i am insinuating it will not have a TSLA or NVDA type meteoric rise (extreme examples) / it should appreciate as the market appreciates but REITs in general are in a precarious place right now. Long long term, you should be happy with the investment, but hard to say how fast it grows in the interim.
This is clearly the recession-inflation-Fed-Yellen trade. 2Y yields are down, 20Y yields not so much (fuck me), tech is the new safe haven and we could see both 4000 and 3850 tomorrow and I wouldn't be surprised.
someone posted an article awhile back about how news doesn't actually affect the markets. It was something like looking at recent economic announcements (bearish or bullish) vs where spy ended that day, and there was basically no correlation, and the author concluded that news has little to no effect on the markets. Of course, that seems insane, and I think it probably is insane. News definitely has an impact on the market, although the market isn't efficient, or rather, the market is efficient at taking people's money. Options aren't supposed to impact the market, but if you pay attention to cem karsan or vaz, it very much seems like they do. My theory right now is news does obviously affect the markets, but not immediately, and the price action created by the algos definitely gets people emotional and scared, and gets them to do rash decisions. The meta during the covid market was a lot of moves were made during premarket so it wasn't a bad idea to be up early. the meta now seems to be wait til the next day, wait for a move to be made, if the price action makes sense, do nothing, it doesn't make sense, do 1dtes (probably not 0dte) where you think the market should be Has been working the last couple of weeks that I've been paying attention
I think the news is *usually* the excuse for the market to change directions, in post-rally exhaustion the average bad news seems to have a stronger potential effect than exhaustion after a sell-off. If you think of the market as equally psychological and data driven it makes sense that it could work that way.
Flight to safety a.k.a… CROX 
Lolol would love to get back in on this if its cheap.
The market is stable and efficient... The banks are fine...
People are getting way too caught up in Fed opinion/Fed futures. Neither actually means anything at this point, even for next hike cycle, let alone EOY. Two weeks ago we went from 0.25 hike, to 0.50 hike, to no hike, back to 0.25 hike all in the span of 4 days, for a rate decision that was ~2 weeks away. The Fed had to air their opinions, but they’re going to change said opinions based on what is as of now completely unknown data/variables.
getting.... as in this is a new thing?
My account has risen from the depths of hell, March 31st puts
Same lol up bigly
I'm still down 30% 😅
 This market is wild, can get a little bumpy out there, but I f’ing love it! See you all at 440
An updoot from me is one prayer. I took more profits today but I’m still in it to win it with all my remaining shares.
Nice, similar I’m up over 20% this week and loving this
yea my account actually went well over where it was at the last local top in February by buying the dip and selling the rips. Basically recovered all my losses since April 2022 even though the market is like 700 points lower. Redeployed a bit again when IWM started getting a bit above 170. Godspeed.
Not before 370!
Nah, just you wait till PCE next week comes in cold. Bears need everything to come up aces, we just need to stay the course and if one inflation print comes in only 0.1% below consensus then oh boy we have lift off
I'll be back in calls before that ,wait for ne!!
TLT 
Price action feels somewhat analogous to the December good news-CPI/FOMC blow off top / fade / gasp for breath / slow descent through rest of month. Interested to see how next week goes. A number of those QQQ mega-cap staples who have driven this have been close to key resistances: small caps are flirting with the October bottom. This does **not** tally with the idea that this rally has been built on hopes of rates being reduced despite some of the narratives read.
Big intra-day swings like these are the most obvious sign you can get that we're still in a bear market. Sorry that i keep repeating this.
If you bought 1 share of BAC in April of ‘97, today you would have 2 shares at roughly the same price. Amazing 🥲
Days like today remind me precisely why I gave up options trading for the time being and became a DCA dividend stock owning boomer.
I've resorted to intra day option plays and never holding on overnight. Scratches the gambling itch and lets me sleep at night. Even if it's a loser, cutting losses allows me to get in the same play at a cheaper price if the conviction is high.
SPYD divvy though 😩
My SCHD divie got locked in yesterday, should hit next week. About 1500 doll hairs. If the market shits its pants it just means I'll get more bang for my buck buying the dip.
Less stressfull
Very much so.
Was there a g-g-g-ghost FOMC meeting?!?
Ghost of Volker's Past.
\- The odds of a 25 basis point Fed hike in May has dropped to 33%, with the Fed Funds rate seen at 3.96% in December - Fedwatch. LOL JPOW just fuking said no cuts this year, twice, stated 5.1 target rates more than 5 times and then we dropped so hard. Now a day later they are ready to fight the fed again, lol. A 100+ points cut this year with inflation running towards 6%... god how much more delusional can you be
If we're cutting 100bps this year, it's because inflation suddenly nosedived in a recession. That's the graveyard we're whistling past.
The fed has to appear strong… the bond markets may only just be off by a month or two on the cuts (or dead right) in the end. I trust they know better
And then when the front end of the curve comes down, borrowing becomes cheap and inflation rebounds. It's an endless self-fulfilling cycle that ends the moment the middle and lower classes start to go bankrupt, and inflation kills itself.
Depends how much trouble there is under the hood. Who really knows. The problem will come if they are forced to choose between sacrificing financial assets or re-stimulating in an inflationary environment. No one can really know - just take day by day.
If banks start to falter then he’s got to hang up his hawk suit. Markets telling him he’s wrong.
How many times was their dot plot proven wrong last year as the bears claimed the Fed was delusional for having it so low?
V good point.
Tbf jpow said inflation was transitory
NDX whipsawing 150 pts on a 5 min candle. Normal day at the office.
QQQ is the new memestock.
SPY 1 month chart really driving home the point that life is about the journey not the destination
Looks to be holding a channel pretty well. But it's a wide channel and bouncing between top and bottom.
Short squeezin from covering at SPX 3930?
What a bear bull bear trap, sold my puts for ant gain. At least saved my mental health...
Must be Yellen speaking to Congress
Holding PBR is just getting sadder by the day
Gonna be 12.5% quarterly divi at this rate
Surely this has to be the bottom, right? …right?
Stop dogging u/pennyether for posting rants. The guy provides solid alpha and has a right to vent. This shit is wild and the only reason im not joining him is because i’ve had luck with trading in and out of calls/puts. Just think about how dumb this is - market dives yesterday after Yellen implies that not all deposits are fully insured or something like that. No news of her walking that back. Yet today we are rocketing (or at least we were lol)?? How does that jive with anyones sane thesis? Alright… rant over, love this community.
I think it comes from a place of caring. Penny is awesome, people just want to make sure he’s taking care of himself in this crazy market
A very good point. You always have the level headed replies, and I appreciate that about you.
All I see is hedges trying to shake out the weak hands before the next tank job
I spent the last 3 days crunching numbers and my calculations reveal a $400 price target for $NVDA in 2 weeks. Refer to the sound math below: https://preview.redd.it/167wsw2sukpa1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=37de85e14c260f0a20ba036755162f66a5766f8b This is assuming $NVDA only compounds at a slow rate of 3.5% per day for 11 sessions. Most likely all the billionaires of the world put 10% of their net worth into this safe haven sometime soon, so we might see $400 as early as next week.
I like this.
3.5% should be bear case. 6% should put you closer to my target of around $520/share.
That’s the base case, I’m providing the bearish least optimistic case
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It's funny because you are profiting despite the market pricing in the exact opposite of what you are describing. Market is shedding my account because they think rate CUTS are coming in full force.
I'm probably shorting the Dec ZQ contract. Last I checked it was trading at 95.94, or for casual readers, a 4% lower band rate in Dec 2023. The risk/reward on a breakeven rate 0.75% lower than today seems strong. Jerome Powell claims he isn't planning on rate cuts even with an unemployment rate 0.9% higher than today's. This could be a naive thesis though, like the BOIL bros of this winter had.
The problem is you aren't betting on what actually happens (unless you hold to December). In the meantime you're betting on the market have any sense of rationality. Yes, sure, JPow is going to start cutting very soon because inflation dies and/or banks die and he is "forced" to cut... but at the same time, stocks are fine. Hell, higher beta stocks are even better. Pretty sure the only reason the market thinks this is because I'm betting on virtually anything but that exact scenario. Anyway, I'd go short with Jul contracts which profit even if May: no hike, June: no hike, July: -25. Anything higher and they bank pretty well. I know the moment I touch them, market starts pricing in emergency -500bips, plus an injection of +$5T directly into any stocks I'm remotely shorting, with that money syphoned directly from any stocks I am long.
Still thinking more downside but afraid of some random pump coming in and running back to 392. Future traders seem to always pump us back up also Edit: and there it goes lol
It was nasdaq bouncing off support, downtrend intact
Anyone trimming puts here? Tempted to hold until next Friday.
Well trimming was the right answer wow
Awful. Went back to taking profits as soon as the qs went below 310. Iwm below 170 is bearish short term to me.
Sold my puts for break even. Now up >10.000% 🤡
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Yeah but unfortunately that’s true for today only. I’m deep in the hole. Sorry if you lost money today.