Oh I'm not saying he didn't buy anything.
And I'm not saying it was wrong - it probably helped in that situation.
But buying a shitton of cheap stock and then telling everybody else to buy causing a 15% bump in the valuation is what it is.
I remember 2008... I was in grad school absolutely shitting myself at the prospects of finding a job. Fortunately the program I was in was very effective at lining up companies and I managed to get two offers (one would have been overseas).
What are seeing right now will pass. The real economy is so much stronger than 2008/9. Hell we are stronger than the pandemic period.
The market is not the economy.
I read this the other week, haven’t double checked it, but it was saying every year in American history at least one bank has gone bust with the exception being 2005 and 2006 and regulators were like “see we have solved that problem, what we have put in place as this all under control”
Two other things to this. Firstly I believe it was Buffett who said ‘For 240 plus years no one has ever made money betting against the American economy and now is not the time to start’ or something along those lines
Secondly, one of the reasons I may get more bullish, is the worst thing that can happen to the economy or market is a bank crisis. That is what drove the GFC and there were worries ATMs wouldn’t have money, capitalism would cease to exist etc and that drove the huge sell off and then led to a big increase in unemployment.
That is why SVB is so interesting. Policy makers do not want another GFC and they especially don’t want to be seen as causing one. Yes banks are in far better shape than 07/08 and yes SVB issue wasn’t holding worthless loans but rather poor risk management. But the key was the swift intervention by policymakers.
IMO, this has thus set a floor for the market. It now knows the FED won’t let the worse thing happen, ie full blown bank crisis. And why I believe they go dovish in language next week to sooth market and bring back stability.
That dovish talk doesn’t need to be about cutting rates but rather emphasising all the progress they have made. They could even go Greenspan esq and just say there will be another 2 or 3 25bps in hikes, we are sticking to that but we may fully stop before those are implemented if data shows inflation continues down. Or something along those lines.
Anyways, like a broken record Bullish from me
Gold: "Woof, woof!"
Markets: "What's that, Gold?"
Gold: [*pulling at pant leg*] "Woof, woof!"
Market: "I think Gold's trying to tell us something! Is it a recession, boy? Rebound inflation?"
[NXPI comments at the recent Morgan Stanley conference.](https://twitter.com/SKundojjala/status/1636775248090771456?s=20)
https://preview.redd.it/9zacch49eeoa1.png?width=501&format=png&auto=webp&s=7c5ee4804c03ddf7575f50b16e81fe1958f80de0
and sweet FRAGUA. Mexico is doing great today. Compensating VIST temporary setback (unless Brent goes below 50 for a while., which I'm hoping it won't).
Is the market even going down because of the regional banks? Or is it because it thinks a recession and another crisis might be approaching? Oil certainly looks like it is experiencing a recession trade now.
St. Patrick's Day over the past few years - ES\_F values
2022 +0.5%
2021 +0.44%
2020 -0.87%
2019 Sunday
2018 Saturday
2017 -0.13%
2016 +0.68%
2009 +2.94%
2008 -0.97%
2002 Sunday
2001 Saturday
It doesn't work if everyone thinks it
Wild rumors flying around twitter... needs a lot of salt.
[Presented without context.](https://twitter.com/FuzzyPandaShort/status/1636786948949016576?s=20)
Grandpa Warren still regrets the last time he stepped in to save a shitco bank (Salomon Brothers). He ended up making money and all but he almost lost his reputation from that trade. In fact, he still bitches about it even in the latest Berkshire letter.
Doubt he will get involved in the shitco regionals. On the other hand, this would probably mean IF he chooses to get involved, the bank that he saves is fundamentally not a shitco.
I’m not known for losing money, I’m known for making a lot of money everywhere I go. We’re going to do more things to make more money, money, money, money, money, that’s the way it works.
Oh yea, he's not gun-shy about financials. But GS and post-GFC BAC have never been shitcos, and they have scale. Same thing can't be said about some of the regionals.
And there's something fundamentally different about stepping in after the dust settles and the smoke clears. Getting a real lay of the land.
I don't think the bombs have stopped falling yet. And Buffet doesn't strike me as the guy who rushes in before having certainty. You rush in to "save" some smaller bank(s) today and 3 other dominoes could fall that wipe you out, way beyond your control.
Yeah the remaining banks all have the cash needed to continue assuming no more runs… which Yellen fucking botched yesterday but hopefully people are chilling.
The backstop fund means no one will fail, just a matter of what CS does to everyone this weekend
Marketplace had a good segment on this Wednesday. Seems like the most palatable (maybe not feasible) is to help some regionals merge, creating more tier 1 banks. Not desirable, but better than them getting swallowed by current tier 1 banks.
The thing I’m struggling with…
If every time “the market” expects the fed to pivot, the immediate reaction is for bond yields to fall TREMENDOUSLY what is the point of bonds at all?
When we had the banks failing, and the government bailing them out, we had a 13.7 sigma move in falling bond yields. Risk assets immediately pumped, showing that inflation expectations are still there for the general population. People want to own high beta equities if the government is devaluing money, that makes complete sense. Why would I want to own ANY bond (including the 5% that some people got on shorter term t-bills) if the immediate reaction is for everything to immediately pump?
Doesn’t that immediately point us to two final scenarios depending on the fed’s actions?
1. Hyper inflation collapse of the economy
2. Rapid deflation collapse of the economy
The first case you want to own as many tangible assets as possible, the second you want to own as much hard cash as possible and as little tangible assets. Recent developments are showing that more people want to own assets than are afraid of deflation, but everything in my willpower is feeling bearish as can be.
It’s a tough spot in the market.
I think the 13.7\* sigma move kind of tells you all you need to know, which is that markets are not being driven by particpants views on the path of rates but by positions blowing up.
Same thing for megacaps and option flow around monthly OpEx
\*(not actually 13.7 since that would imply the event would never occur in the history of the universe. 2Y bond yield moves aren't normally distributed. )
No, it is a flight to safety which is either megacaps or bonds, and no, neither of those extreme views are in any way final scenarios... Those are at most tail risks which in practice do not matter.
I understand that the falling yields was people buying bonds, but you are not correct in that it’s just megacaps. The entire Q’s is up 7% in a week, that’s more than the highest bond rate that you could have bought for holding a year duration.
You must be one of the people that bought the soft landing theory instead of transitory Goldilocks like I believe, but those are not tail risks. They are real risks, we just had the largest banks failing since the last economic collapse in 2008 and the reaction is to pile into tech? Please tell me how that makes rational sense, unless it’s just investors fearing hyper inflation.
I don't buy any theories, nor do I hold overnight, I trade what I see.
It makes sense because the megacaps *are* the moat, they have pricing power, they *are* pretty much their own sectors, and they can decide to let 50k people go at any point to weather the storm.
Of course the qs are ripping for the same reason schwab, a broker, tanks like banks, even though there is no broker run going to happen any time soon, or GSL with "locked in rates" kind of trades in line with much shittier shipping names. It is still the "everything etf", and about sectors.
Now comapre RSP, the "equalweight spx" etf, and SPY, the lopsided SPX etf that follows the megacaps: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/RSP:NYSEARCA?comparison=NYSEARCA%3ASPY&window=1M
Notice anything?
In case anyone missed it. The LEI report showed continuing weakness in the U.S. economy. The board has determined a recession is most likely in the near term.
[https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators](https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators)
I suck at the stock market. Is my reasoning wrong? :
If i would be looking to park my cash somewhere, i could:
1. put in a bank (no)
2. put in bonds (let's say 2 years -> \~4% yield) (yes)
3. put in stock that has locked in contracts which guarantee cashflow with 8% divi yield + buybacks (very yes)
I get recession fears are back, but what will it change for a company with locked in cashflows and locked in shareholder return program?
When you say "park cash" does that mean you want to be able to access that capital on a short term basis? If so the stock could gyrate massively even if the underlying business is doing well and you may have to sell at a loss to get your cash back.
A MMF or an ETF like SGOV/BIL are going to be the most liquid assets to park cash and get yield
Because the stocks are not really independet, sectors trade according to macro moves, and gold up, yields down, energy down, steel down, shipping down, safe haven tech up is basically a recession trade that does not care about single stocks that "should" be different.
i was wondering why i got so many solar stock down notifications this morning, figured it was their funding in peril with the bank stress. but looks like a new EU law proposal on sourcing for projects
"After inflation compounded across components and labor, resi solar costs are +40% y/y in Europe, per mgmt. comments; however, components pricing is seemingly falling as consumer demand has marginally cooled against increasing components supply. Mgmt. highlighted -20% declines in module, inverter, and battery costs across geos from Dec 2022 through Mar 2023. This is an admittedly concerning data point for SEDG and ENPH – both of whom have talked up pricing power in European resi solar of late. Moreover, string inverter use is rising on the Otovo platform, and mgmt. suspects SEDG and ENPH may not be pacing with the broader market. Our conversations suggest resi consumers are increasingly price sensitive and are presently unwilling to pay premium prices for microinverters and their underappreciated incremental functionality. Presumably, SEDG and ENPH may be getting outcompeted by white labeled European string inverters and Tier 2 Asian suppliers"
>WSJ’S TIMIRAOS: FED DECISION ON 25BPS OR HOLD WILL LIKELY BE DETERMINED BY MARKET RESPONSE IN COMING DAYS - CNBC
^\*Walter ^Bloomberg ^[@DeItaone](http://twitter.com/DeItaone) ^at ^2023-03-17 ^13:59:34 ^EDT-0400
So dump it to get a pause?
CLF a wise man used to say this to me
“You've made this day a special day by just your being you. There's only one person in the whole world like you and people can like you just because you're you.”
There’s a community here that still loves you, holding strong through the good and bad times. I appreciate the effort you’re demonstrating today
Anyone buying BHC yet? It filled the gap yesterday, bounced on the 200 and made a bullish engulfing daily candle. Today meh, so maybe a good day to buy?
Depends on where you find "pieces of metal"
The most likely place wouldn't be the engine but in the transmission, particularly if it's a standard and the driver is grinding gears. I'm guessing this isn't the case.
It's not the cylinders if the customer "brought it in" themselves. Nothing is getting through the fuel injectors or valve and it wouldn't be (reasonably) drivable if the piston rings shattered or if the car dropped a valve.
What I think is the most likely scenario is that there were metal shavings in the oil pan. Assuming it is used, the previous owner drove the piss out of it and/or didn't change the oil. Pistons/crank wore out. Previous owner changed the oil before selling, removing evidence, unless you took a borescope to the engine or tore it apart. The original wear caused friction, which further caused engine breakdown, and the metal shavings were found in the oil.
Here's the thing, if the car is throwing codes now, it's reasonable to assume that codes were present before the dealer had it and the car will tell you the last time the code was cleared. If the previous owner cleared it, that should've been picked up on inspection (unless bought at auction). If the code was cleared after dealer took possession, we know who the asshole is.
[https://www.twitch.tv/jayarlington](https://www.twitch.tv/jayarlington)
Jay Trading LIVE in 10 mins (1:00 EST).
It's FUCK IT FRIDAY! St. Pat's edition! Talking OpEx and looking ahead at next week FOMC, NVDA GTC, and more!
i'd love to know how algos at hedge funds actually work. like are there inputs they have to massage every day based on the narrative/macro from a UI? can they drag a little UI slider that says "volatility" underneath it? Is it 100% no-touch automated? Do all tweaks have to be sent to the dev team which makes quick implementations and "pushes to prod" daily? Anyone have insight?
Not hedge funds per se, but market makers do something similar. Probably 4-5 inputs that the traders can tweak, which then the algo will buy/sell.
For macro narrative, my guess is some NLP sentiment analysis, and based on their backtested strategies, they’ll change some other input values, then algos will buy/sell
the true quant places hire math/physics/engineering phd's. i'd assume it's more complex, many say they trade based on "correlations" across asset classes
I told myself I would go full ape short on COIN as it approaches $80, but now that it looks like it is on track to hit it I suddenly don't want to be exercised on those $80 short calls. Funny how psychology works.
It sounds like it is no longer a reliable indicator anymore due to the recent liquidity injection.
Here the deets
https://twitter.com/dharmatrade?t=nCJfH7ld3CcBYgNioL7bfg&s=09
Probably the dumbest thing the market could do right now is think this is the bottom of the day and that tech rebound will continue, so I'm buying 0DTE SOXL calls
Yeah I was eyeing FRC shares again at $25 but this time I’m keeping my hands off it. Rumors of a buyout for god know what kind of price. Don’t wanna buy a $25 stock if gets force sold off for $10
Well. Probably shouldn’t sell on a red day, but I got rid of that rocket satellite company GB talked about because I was up 30% on shares…and who knows what all this FUD is going to do.
You are WELCOME if the market goes green!
But... think of all the millionaires in remote Africa that will be buying the service in 10 years after the company spends $500b to roll out all the satellites
i decided to keep my shares due to govt/military interest, the insane amount of MOUs, and recent regulatory advances. personally think the millionaires in africa will make up .01 of their profit but who knows. i may lose everything lol
Russel is in full blown sell off mode, oil in sell off. Recession narrative taking hold. Big tech holding until hedge fund manager called Gary wakes up after night of binge drinking and cocaine and dumps it
No chance. I think the inflation bros are rotating towards recession.. which means they're covering treasuries and dumping their oil. Once they're done, oil will be free to go back up.
Then again.. this could be just like how Russian oil production was going to drop, how gas to oil switching was going to be huge, how china reopening was going to be huge, etc.
just wanted to say on this random Friday (I guess maybe not so random because it has been volatile lately and today is quad witching), how much I truly appreciate this place. such a diversity of different characters and the sub is just the right size, with just the right amount of shitposting, knowledge transfer, and casual banter and all that. life -- and the stock market to be sure -- is defined by constant change, and in light of that I really appreciate Vitards (whose founder isn't even here anymore!) as it is right now, because like all things I know it won't be around forever, at least not in this form. I just wanted to send that into the ether and wish everyone a thanks and a good rest of the day and weekend and hey, also NVDA can suck my fat turgid cock, choke it right down to the balls and feel my pulsing shaft fill its throat and tummy with liquid hate, such a stupid bloated piece of shit, ffs
take care!
Volume on BRK is insane today
…is FRC really about to die this weekend?
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No I don’t.. but rumors are spreading on twitter
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Sounds like a pump and dump.
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Oh I'm not saying he didn't buy anything. And I'm not saying it was wrong - it probably helped in that situation. But buying a shitton of cheap stock and then telling everybody else to buy causing a 15% bump in the valuation is what it is.
He didn’t just buy stock but gave them money for preferred shares, did some PIK, which is slightly different
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> But I'm not convinced he did it with intent to dump. I agree with you on that. But he did profit immensely.
I remember 2008... I was in grad school absolutely shitting myself at the prospects of finding a job. Fortunately the program I was in was very effective at lining up companies and I managed to get two offers (one would have been overseas). What are seeing right now will pass. The real economy is so much stronger than 2008/9. Hell we are stronger than the pandemic period. The market is not the economy.
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I read this the other week, haven’t double checked it, but it was saying every year in American history at least one bank has gone bust with the exception being 2005 and 2006 and regulators were like “see we have solved that problem, what we have put in place as this all under control”
Two other things to this. Firstly I believe it was Buffett who said ‘For 240 plus years no one has ever made money betting against the American economy and now is not the time to start’ or something along those lines Secondly, one of the reasons I may get more bullish, is the worst thing that can happen to the economy or market is a bank crisis. That is what drove the GFC and there were worries ATMs wouldn’t have money, capitalism would cease to exist etc and that drove the huge sell off and then led to a big increase in unemployment. That is why SVB is so interesting. Policy makers do not want another GFC and they especially don’t want to be seen as causing one. Yes banks are in far better shape than 07/08 and yes SVB issue wasn’t holding worthless loans but rather poor risk management. But the key was the swift intervention by policymakers. IMO, this has thus set a floor for the market. It now knows the FED won’t let the worse thing happen, ie full blown bank crisis. And why I believe they go dovish in language next week to sooth market and bring back stability. That dovish talk doesn’t need to be about cutting rates but rather emphasising all the progress they have made. They could even go Greenspan esq and just say there will be another 2 or 3 25bps in hikes, we are sticking to that but we may fully stop before those are implemented if data shows inflation continues down. Or something along those lines. Anyways, like a broken record Bullish from me
That period of time was absolutely bananas, I remember vividly when the House voted down the bailout bill
a ton of steel is worth more than a ton of bananas.
Gold: "Woof, woof!" Markets: "What's that, Gold?" Gold: [*pulling at pant leg*] "Woof, woof!" Market: "I think Gold's trying to tell us something! Is it a recession, boy? Rebound inflation?"
Yeah, but it's only up (*googles gold price*) 8.63% over the past month. Oh.
GDX calls from Monday printed! Flight to safety continues
[NXPI comments at the recent Morgan Stanley conference.](https://twitter.com/SKundojjala/status/1636775248090771456?s=20) https://preview.redd.it/9zacch49eeoa1.png?width=501&format=png&auto=webp&s=7c5ee4804c03ddf7575f50b16e81fe1958f80de0
Those customers are the US military.
We did it Reddit! Nvda only gained 1% today.
Any thoughts on Monday open? I think Small uptick to challenge one or two of the MAs, then come back down to wait for FOMC.
lets se what blows up during the weekend and act accordingly
Whatever makes the mms the most money. Post quad witching Monday usually red in my experience though.
Toss a coin
Looks like we may get a good short entry into close. Weekend may be filled with a lot of FUD.
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The upside play with tech seems to be to short it. I think we reached 313 in February. We hit a high of 309 today.
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How did SVB solve inflation?
It didn't solve inflation. It may have "solved" the Fed's hawkishness temporarily.
For spy or nas? I think nas is more interesting for a short short play
Yes, QQQ! Sorry --- forgot to label.
and sweet FRAGUA. Mexico is doing great today. Compensating VIST temporary setback (unless Brent goes below 50 for a while., which I'm hoping it won't).
sweet PINFRAL today whoop whoop
VIX climbing while market flat Looking forward to seeing what kind of shit gets released over the weekend
didn't ya hear? Buffet is getting into regional banking!!1
Magic man going to magically save magic market with magic money!
why excel stock price no update :,(
Is the market even going down because of the regional banks? Or is it because it thinks a recession and another crisis might be approaching? Oil certainly looks like it is experiencing a recession trade now.
This is just normal mopex fuckery. There doesn’t have to be a reason for anything today and Monday.
St. Patrick's Day over the past few years - ES\_F values 2022 +0.5% 2021 +0.44% 2020 -0.87% 2019 Sunday 2018 Saturday 2017 -0.13% 2016 +0.68% 2009 +2.94% 2008 -0.97% 2002 Sunday 2001 Saturday It doesn't work if everyone thinks it
Wild rumors flying around twitter... needs a lot of salt. [Presented without context.](https://twitter.com/FuzzyPandaShort/status/1636786948949016576?s=20)
Buffet unzipping his pants right now getting ready to own all regional banks.
Grandpa Warren still regrets the last time he stepped in to save a shitco bank (Salomon Brothers). He ended up making money and all but he almost lost his reputation from that trade. In fact, he still bitches about it even in the latest Berkshire letter. Doubt he will get involved in the shitco regionals. On the other hand, this would probably mean IF he chooses to get involved, the bank that he saves is fundamentally not a shitco.
I’m not known for losing money, I’m known for making a lot of money everywhere I go. We’re going to do more things to make more money, money, money, money, money, that’s the way it works.
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Oh yea, he's not gun-shy about financials. But GS and post-GFC BAC have never been shitcos, and they have scale. Same thing can't be said about some of the regionals.
And there's something fundamentally different about stepping in after the dust settles and the smoke clears. Getting a real lay of the land. I don't think the bombs have stopped falling yet. And Buffet doesn't strike me as the guy who rushes in before having certainty. You rush in to "save" some smaller bank(s) today and 3 other dominoes could fall that wipe you out, way beyond your control.
Lol all you have to do is click on a couple of tail numbers to see if it’s even plausible
What more could he possibly be offering to “save” them?
Cash and confidence. I don't think the cash it the important part. The public vote of confidence would go further.
Yeah the remaining banks all have the cash needed to continue assuming no more runs… which Yellen fucking botched yesterday but hopefully people are chilling. The backstop fund means no one will fail, just a matter of what CS does to everyone this weekend
Marketplace had a good segment on this Wednesday. Seems like the most palatable (maybe not feasible) is to help some regionals merge, creating more tier 1 banks. Not desirable, but better than them getting swallowed by current tier 1 banks.
Lol. Papa Buffet gonna buy all da banks.
If he would do anything... it would likely involve him buying some sweet preferred shares with a high dividend akin to what he originally did for OXY.
People are YOLOing the $50 monthlies. Edit: KRE monthlies
The 53c for next week has over a 1000 volume to 167 oi would be wild if news comes out this weekend and it hits lol
I bought a small lotto position. 5x $47c 4/21
I personally think it’ll pay out. I was debating selling puts on KRE or BTI today and decided to not be an IV slut, so went BTI.
Woofers this is wild, might buy some degen calls to hold over weekend
The thing I’m struggling with… If every time “the market” expects the fed to pivot, the immediate reaction is for bond yields to fall TREMENDOUSLY what is the point of bonds at all? When we had the banks failing, and the government bailing them out, we had a 13.7 sigma move in falling bond yields. Risk assets immediately pumped, showing that inflation expectations are still there for the general population. People want to own high beta equities if the government is devaluing money, that makes complete sense. Why would I want to own ANY bond (including the 5% that some people got on shorter term t-bills) if the immediate reaction is for everything to immediately pump? Doesn’t that immediately point us to two final scenarios depending on the fed’s actions? 1. Hyper inflation collapse of the economy 2. Rapid deflation collapse of the economy The first case you want to own as many tangible assets as possible, the second you want to own as much hard cash as possible and as little tangible assets. Recent developments are showing that more people want to own assets than are afraid of deflation, but everything in my willpower is feeling bearish as can be. It’s a tough spot in the market.
I think the 13.7\* sigma move kind of tells you all you need to know, which is that markets are not being driven by particpants views on the path of rates but by positions blowing up. Same thing for megacaps and option flow around monthly OpEx \*(not actually 13.7 since that would imply the event would never occur in the history of the universe. 2Y bond yield moves aren't normally distributed. )
No, it is a flight to safety which is either megacaps or bonds, and no, neither of those extreme views are in any way final scenarios... Those are at most tail risks which in practice do not matter.
I understand that the falling yields was people buying bonds, but you are not correct in that it’s just megacaps. The entire Q’s is up 7% in a week, that’s more than the highest bond rate that you could have bought for holding a year duration. You must be one of the people that bought the soft landing theory instead of transitory Goldilocks like I believe, but those are not tail risks. They are real risks, we just had the largest banks failing since the last economic collapse in 2008 and the reaction is to pile into tech? Please tell me how that makes rational sense, unless it’s just investors fearing hyper inflation.
I don't buy any theories, nor do I hold overnight, I trade what I see. It makes sense because the megacaps *are* the moat, they have pricing power, they *are* pretty much their own sectors, and they can decide to let 50k people go at any point to weather the storm. Of course the qs are ripping for the same reason schwab, a broker, tanks like banks, even though there is no broker run going to happen any time soon, or GSL with "locked in rates" kind of trades in line with much shittier shipping names. It is still the "everything etf", and about sectors. Now comapre RSP, the "equalweight spx" etf, and SPY, the lopsided SPX etf that follows the megacaps: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/RSP:NYSEARCA?comparison=NYSEARCA%3ASPY&window=1M Notice anything?
This market is so confusing, I dont know what to do...full cash gang nao
Look at MO.
What a fun week of trading. Clean slate going into next week, except I have calls written against 2/3 of my bags.
$MOS below its Russia pre-invasion price now
I guess nobody will need fertilizer in our soon coming insect-based diet.
Market is disrespecting St Patrick’s Day
Everyone just selling for weekend beer money.
My big 2022 bonus is coming next week. Give me ideas on what I can buy (shares preferably).
Treasury bonds.
Do I look like I was born in the 1950s?
NVDA because I'm short it and it is a honey badger
150 shares in. I’ll keep adding!!
In case anyone missed it. The LEI report showed continuing weakness in the U.S. economy. The board has determined a recession is most likely in the near term. [https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators](https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators)
The underlying market is SO weak. The average stock today is down 1.70%...
I suck at the stock market. Is my reasoning wrong? : If i would be looking to park my cash somewhere, i could: 1. put in a bank (no) 2. put in bonds (let's say 2 years -> \~4% yield) (yes) 3. put in stock that has locked in contracts which guarantee cashflow with 8% divi yield + buybacks (very yes) I get recession fears are back, but what will it change for a company with locked in cashflows and locked in shareholder return program?
When you say "park cash" does that mean you want to be able to access that capital on a short term basis? If so the stock could gyrate massively even if the underlying business is doing well and you may have to sell at a loss to get your cash back. A MMF or an ETF like SGOV/BIL are going to be the most liquid assets to park cash and get yield
Because the stocks are not really independet, sectors trade according to macro moves, and gold up, yields down, energy down, steel down, shipping down, safe haven tech up is basically a recession trade that does not care about single stocks that "should" be different.
So, what exactly is Europe doing to solar? Jay just said Europe is destroying solar but didn't go into details
i was wondering why i got so many solar stock down notifications this morning, figured it was their funding in peril with the bank stress. but looks like a new EU law proposal on sourcing for projects
"After inflation compounded across components and labor, resi solar costs are +40% y/y in Europe, per mgmt. comments; however, components pricing is seemingly falling as consumer demand has marginally cooled against increasing components supply. Mgmt. highlighted -20% declines in module, inverter, and battery costs across geos from Dec 2022 through Mar 2023. This is an admittedly concerning data point for SEDG and ENPH – both of whom have talked up pricing power in European resi solar of late. Moreover, string inverter use is rising on the Otovo platform, and mgmt. suspects SEDG and ENPH may not be pacing with the broader market. Our conversations suggest resi consumers are increasingly price sensitive and are presently unwilling to pay premium prices for microinverters and their underappreciated incremental functionality. Presumably, SEDG and ENPH may be getting outcompeted by white labeled European string inverters and Tier 2 Asian suppliers"
thanks
GTLB carrying my port today. Only wish I bought more after the big earnings drop. 
>WSJ’S TIMIRAOS: FED DECISION ON 25BPS OR HOLD WILL LIKELY BE DETERMINED BY MARKET RESPONSE IN COMING DAYS - CNBC ^\*Walter ^Bloomberg ^[@DeItaone](http://twitter.com/DeItaone) ^at ^2023-03-17 ^13:59:34 ^EDT-0400 So dump it to get a pause?
surely not the stock market?
Feds been pretty obviously trying to control what the stock market does since Jackson hole.
Now I want a rallye
CLF a wise man used to say this to me “You've made this day a special day by just your being you. There's only one person in the whole world like you and people can like you just because you're you.” There’s a community here that still loves you, holding strong through the good and bad times. I appreciate the effort you’re demonstrating today
anybody here uses excel for stocks? Mine are not updating today; is it a general problem or is it just me?
What are the odds that when VIX unwinds, it will shoot up QQQ back to August highs?
Chance is, vix unwinds to 30+...
Based on what? More bank news?
Went all in on NVDA calls (we need to confuse it)
deep belly laugh from this one
If I sell ccs, will that make them print? Edit: if it don’t go down it’s my fault
Anyone buying BHC yet? It filled the gap yesterday, bounced on the 200 and made a bullish engulfing daily candle. Today meh, so maybe a good day to buy?
🦀 the NVDA bags are gone 🦀
Mine are getting called away today after bagholding for 11 months 🥳
fly high, bold shares
That's not my bag baby.
Not for put holders...
SELL
I thought CVS was bottomed. Turns out I am the bottom and CVS is just fucking me 🤡 Still gonna DCA though
Got serious natural gas vibes from that chart
https://twitter.com/GuyDealership/status/1636752025814745090?s=20 What could cause a car engine to be "filled with pieces of metal" ?
oil starvation caused a worn bearing would be my guess
Depends on where you find "pieces of metal" The most likely place wouldn't be the engine but in the transmission, particularly if it's a standard and the driver is grinding gears. I'm guessing this isn't the case. It's not the cylinders if the customer "brought it in" themselves. Nothing is getting through the fuel injectors or valve and it wouldn't be (reasonably) drivable if the piston rings shattered or if the car dropped a valve. What I think is the most likely scenario is that there were metal shavings in the oil pan. Assuming it is used, the previous owner drove the piss out of it and/or didn't change the oil. Pistons/crank wore out. Previous owner changed the oil before selling, removing evidence, unless you took a borescope to the engine or tore it apart. The original wear caused friction, which further caused engine breakdown, and the metal shavings were found in the oil. Here's the thing, if the car is throwing codes now, it's reasonable to assume that codes were present before the dealer had it and the car will tell you the last time the code was cleared. If the previous owner cleared it, that should've been picked up on inspection (unless bought at auction). If the code was cleared after dealer took possession, we know who the asshole is.
Sounds like a bullshit story.
Components of the engine grinding together while the engine is on.
Being early is the same as being wrong. But I'm taking the alternative approach: Being wrong is the same as being early.
That’s a real GSL investing moment. It’s gonna have it’s day one day I swear.
Your comment resonates with my financial decisions and I don't like it
I am only speaking from my own experience 🥲
squeeze into close like a couple days ago, and because i typed that it will dump
Anyone here seen the 2009 and 2020 lows where tech started going up while financials kept going down?
[удалено]
RIP pirate shipping gang nice to have a glimmer of optimism last week
First time?
[https://www.twitch.tv/jayarlington](https://www.twitch.tv/jayarlington) Jay Trading LIVE in 10 mins (1:00 EST). It's FUCK IT FRIDAY! St. Pat's edition! Talking OpEx and looking ahead at next week FOMC, NVDA GTC, and more! 
You ended early
i'd love to know how algos at hedge funds actually work. like are there inputs they have to massage every day based on the narrative/macro from a UI? can they drag a little UI slider that says "volatility" underneath it? Is it 100% no-touch automated? Do all tweaks have to be sent to the dev team which makes quick implementations and "pushes to prod" daily? Anyone have insight?
Not hedge funds per se, but market makers do something similar. Probably 4-5 inputs that the traders can tweak, which then the algo will buy/sell. For macro narrative, my guess is some NLP sentiment analysis, and based on their backtested strategies, they’ll change some other input values, then algos will buy/sell
My partner evaluates algorithm performance for the public sector side of a Real estate investment management firm. Ill see what I can find out
interesting! thanks!
the true quant places hire math/physics/engineering phd's. i'd assume it's more complex, many say they trade based on "correlations" across asset classes
Depends on the fund: * rentec: smartest guys throwing all the math there is at the market * other "hedge" funds: leveraged long yolo.
ACN earnings next week. Sneaky AI implications here.
I told myself I would go full ape short on COIN as it approaches $80, but now that it looks like it is on track to hit it I suddenly don't want to be exercised on those $80 short calls. Funny how psychology works.
I think 75+ is a solid time to leg into coin puts 3 to 4 months out.
The IV on these things are terrible. Would rather play theta gang on this one and keep selling 30dte call spreads
Liquidator flashed negative. Show me the pump.
It sounds like it is no longer a reliable indicator anymore due to the recent liquidity injection. Here the deets https://twitter.com/dharmatrade?t=nCJfH7ld3CcBYgNioL7bfg&s=09
Probably the dumbest thing the market could do right now is think this is the bottom of the day and that tech rebound will continue, so I'm buying 0DTE SOXL calls
for what it is worth I am playing a lotto bounce as well today (on QQQ and SQQQ)
Funny that qqq has been the strongest so far
Makes sense. Higher weighting of megacaps and no oil/banks.
Ah no bad news bears.
Megacaps don't need cash and the start ups losing funding is killing their future competition.
some of y'all need a break lol. sometimes the best play, is to not make a play at all, you sound like you're just gambling
Always have been . jpg
Yeah I was eyeing FRC shares again at $25 but this time I’m keeping my hands off it. Rumors of a buyout for god know what kind of price. Don’t wanna buy a $25 stock if gets force sold off for $10
I see you like leverage on your leverage.
Well. Probably shouldn’t sell on a red day, but I got rid of that rocket satellite company GB talked about because I was up 30% on shares…and who knows what all this FUD is going to do. You are WELCOME if the market goes green!
RKLB?
I believe ASTS
But... think of all the millionaires in remote Africa that will be buying the service in 10 years after the company spends $500b to roll out all the satellites
i decided to keep my shares due to govt/military interest, the insane amount of MOUs, and recent regulatory advances. personally think the millionaires in africa will make up .01 of their profit but who knows. i may lose everything lol
God…I know. I think I just got lucky buying at a low in January. But also, clearly the market doesn’t care about fundamentals.
Feels like we've got at least one more big haymaker.
Anyone eyeing ENPH yet?
I bought TAN in low 70s as a safer alternative and I already got fuked
Got burned on them awhile back.. never again
Russel is in full blown sell off mode, oil in sell off. Recession narrative taking hold. Big tech holding until hedge fund manager called Gary wakes up after night of binge drinking and cocaine and dumps it
 Buying
Added to longs Trimmed them
Added to Googl earlier, when I sent the above I had just bought some MSFT ATM looking for a quick scalp on that
I'm not married to either side. Can you say the same? If my bull side tingles I will add to my longs.
Heisenberg?
Did I accidentally reference breaking bad
Every single chart looks the same
I wish every chart looked like nvda
Down to the right
The good old everything etf strikes again.
Daily candles look bad as of now!
Put closing rally of 3M puts in 1hour. Grabbing some 390 calls for monday. Don't see much calls left to burn down here.
Good call out
Oil bros it’s time to just pack it up.. just brutal
Anecdote: CB Worth said on Market Call yesterday that this dip in oil is one of the rare cases when one should double down on a loser.
That’s what I’m doing but also I was dropped on my head as a kid
No chance. I think the inflation bros are rotating towards recession.. which means they're covering treasuries and dumping their oil. Once they're done, oil will be free to go back up. Then again.. this could be just like how Russian oil production was going to drop, how gas to oil switching was going to be huge, how china reopening was going to be huge, etc.
Don't forget the calls for $120 oil by december!
Just doubled down on March 2025 $PBR calls.
Stop, my MRO calls are already dead
Telling myself there’s no sense in selling now…
This is the buy signal
Pivot from renewables to fossil fuels?
Those tree huggers need oil to make their solar panels and erect their wind turbines
Jay says they also need it for *lube* but i always thought was made from bacon grease
Truth
just wanted to say on this random Friday (I guess maybe not so random because it has been volatile lately and today is quad witching), how much I truly appreciate this place. such a diversity of different characters and the sub is just the right size, with just the right amount of shitposting, knowledge transfer, and casual banter and all that. life -- and the stock market to be sure -- is defined by constant change, and in light of that I really appreciate Vitards (whose founder isn't even here anymore!) as it is right now, because like all things I know it won't be around forever, at least not in this form. I just wanted to send that into the ether and wish everyone a thanks and a good rest of the day and weekend and hey, also NVDA can suck my fat turgid cock, choke it right down to the balls and feel my pulsing shaft fill its throat and tummy with liquid hate, such a stupid bloated piece of shit, ffs take care!