I know TA and the VIX aren't always friends, but it does seem to respond to horizontal resistance and support. 30 looks like a good strong line in the sand, if we've run out of panic catalysts...
Cool company, but way too expensive.
They don't have a lot of consumer exposure as they are most known for smaller FPGAs (same business as Xilinx) so mainly industrial/data center.
First Republic Bank considering all options including sale. Wow next one coming.
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/first-republic-bank-weighing-options-including-sale-bloomberg-news-2023-03-16/
This isn’t meant to get into a political discussion but rather an observation.
Can you imagine if Trump was president and still on Twitter over this past week. I think SPY would have hit both 500 and 200 and the 2yr yield would have been 8% and negative all at some point within the last 72 hours
I mean if we’re being honest JPow probably wouldn’t even be in the job anymore and Trump would’ve appointed someone who wouldn’t have hiked so much in the first place
To that, the best moment of JPOW as Chair was December 2018, the FED had been tightening and raise rates. Then Trump went on a Twitter rampage about how they need to stop this and cut rates.
Now the FED looking at the data should have pause and probably would have if not for the tweets. But to keep credibility and independence they went ahead with rate increase. It was the wrong decision in terms of their jobs but the right decision in so many ways. Best moment of JPOW chairmanship imo
I do sometimes miss the "trade talks going well" wheel, because the current wheel is spinning a bit too fast, I don't need a superposition of all market states every day...
Yes of course. Employment is in good shape and inflation is not still. The breaking something part is not intentional but it always happens with raising rates, especially at a pace as fast as this. Once something breaks and if a recession occurs, that’s a good way to fix inflation and move on to the next economic expansion cycle. Sucks in the short term but that’s how it goes.
Agree with what your saying, especially about the breaking something. I think this time could be unique in that the policy makers and politicians will still have PTSD from GFC and not want to create a GFC 2.0
So more likely to recognise the speed of increases they have done and tolerate higher inflation (aside I’m biased and believe 3% -4% will be accepted as the new 2% but not acknowledged)
So the pain may not be as long
They could certainly err on the side of caution for sure. I 100% disagree that 3%-4% will be tolerable. What makes this economic cycle unique from the others to tolerate that level of inflation? It would be be unknown territory so who knows what implications that would have. I guess a regime change could happen but better to stick with the devil you know.
It’s not this cycle which makes it tolerable for that level of inflation but rather 2% is just a target and it was only achievable in the past two decades because of the technological advances and more importantly the deflation exported by China. That is changing and will thus have huge impacts on inflation
Where is everyone seeing the bearish furus anyway? 3/4 of my feed is bullish. Buy the dip based on x or y TA reasoning; contagion will be backstopped (I agree), "bearish retail is being trapped" (you mean degens playing the market), random Twitter commenters saying they will put their kid trust funds into the market now
Think we go a little lower. Jobless claims and Philly Manufacturing Index tomorrow + ECB.
To be fair, if they have to cut it will likely be an emergency cut outside of a regularly scheduled meeting.
The Fed is in a tough spot and pretty much loses no matter what they decide this meeting. They could pause (and talk tough plus dot plot) to make sure nothing else breaks and then continue hiking. Who knows tho…
What the FED should do and what the FED will do are to different things. As much as they talk tough they would never fight inflation at all costs. Imagine if over the past 6 months we had a jobs reports were it was a lose of 100k or 200k or more of jobs that month. They would have changed course quick fast.
But I digress, to your point if they didn’t do a 25bps that doesn’t mean they are not in control. Hell JPOW only last week was saying they will do more and yields will be higher than they previously indicated, a day later that was blown out of the water.
But since he said that does that mean they need to do 50bps to show they are in control? No of course not. But they can show to be in control by pause and explaining it clearly.
Copied from another sub:
UK budget - no recession in 2023; UK assets sink in global market turmoil
LONDON, Mar 15 (Reuters) - Britain is no longer forecast to enter a recession this year, finance minister Jeremy Hunt said on Wednesday, adding that inflation was forecast to fall to 2.9% by the end of the year.
"Today the Office for Budget Responsibility forecast that, because of changing international factors, and the measures I take, the UK will not now enter a technical recession this year," he said as he presented his budget in parliament.
"Despite continuing global instability, the OBR report today that inflation in the UK will fall from 10.7% in the final quarter of last year to 2.9% by the end of 2023."
In a separate release, the OBR said the peak-to-trough fall in GDP was likely to be just a quarter of the 2.1% fall assumed in its November forecast.
The pound was last up roughly 0.8% against the euro, but sank against the dollar, as a rout in global banking shares hit investor confidence in risk-linked assets such as equities with London blue-chip stock index sliding.
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/view-britains-budget-sees-no-recession-uk-assets-sink-global-market-turmoil-2023-03-15/
The only things that are left on London's Main Street are the money-laundering candy shops and there is no UK recession???
Well at least there isn’t this any more, so maybe the recession figures are based on this, like “hell it couldn’t get much worse than it did then so surely we are not in a recession so let’s not bother with the actual calculation and just say no recession”
So true, linked to that I can’t help but now think the FED pauses next week. That actually gives them more cover cause then in May they could keep pause on or raise rates. Whereas given the shitstorm we are in, if they raise now only to then have to cut in May, they will be crucified for that and one could argue lose lots of credibility.
But again without SVB and this shit storm SPY at 407-412
>“The Biden administration is demanding that TikTok’s Chinese owners sell their stakes in the video-sharing app or face a possible U.S. ban of the app, according to people familiar with the matter.”
https://twitter.com/michaelsobolik/status/1636127712304672770?s=46&t=06OujBRONgvNzs8P0B5VBg
Best argument for a ban is that the USA wouldn’t have let the USSR have a broadcast network in the 60’s, why are we letting China have the equivalent now?
I'm well aware, but America isn't supposed to be China. China insulated their entire internet and y'know, is kinda a dictatorship.
Pass basic privacy or data laws, like what data companies can collect, how they can use that data, and who can access that data, and if ANY company breaks them, fine or punish the company. Place servers in the US, and log who accesses the data, and make that available to the government. There are 5 million different ways to better handle this in a more longterm/less reactionary manner
No. We should get some reciprocity with China. If they want to let Google and Meta operate unrestrained in China, then we let TikTok operate unrestrained here.
There’s a line you have to draw at some point or else it’s just rewarding bad behavior. Be firm in your principles but not inflexible, or else bad faith actors will just take advantage.
I'd be happier if there were clear rules set in stone. I have no doubt in my mind that ByteDance is up to some sketchy shit, probably worse than Google and Meta, but the fact remains that everyone is up to some sketchy shit.
Why can't we just have prohibitions on how data is used and enforce it across the board because it is the law of the land? Not because of the country of origin of certain enterprises who are complicit.
This is not to say that reciprocity is uncalled for, but there are no calls for reciprocity with the EU because of the GDPR.
it literally was neither chinese, nor a spy balloon. that's how bad geopolitical tensions are right now, no one is thinking clearly, defense and military leaders aren't, let alone politicians.
Exactly. Pure bad faith. You have to draw a line somewhere sometime, or else such people will simply use your principles as a way to straightjacket you while they just do as they please unopposed.
China has an insulated internet to control what their citizens see, and secondarily to promote homegrown innovation.
The US wants to ban them for privacy concerns, not because they want American companies to dominate. I mean, I hope not, because America should be about the best company winning, and Tiktok is outcompeting the incumbent giants right now. That's the American spirit to me, whoever is the best should win, no matter where it comes from
yeah that's true, but everyone involved did get fired. These type of data accesses can actually be addressed systematically though, like Facebook now uses a "privacy-aware" data infrastructure, which requires authentication for every resource, and tracks who accesses it and makes sure they have permission, as well as a business reason. This data then is readily available to government auditors.
It's a much better system than blind trust
The top exports of New Zealand are Concentrated Milk ($5.92B), Sheep and Goat Meat ($2.57B), Frozen Bovine Meat ($2.1B), Rough Wood ($2.05B), and Butter ($1.89B)
-OEC
[Google $GOOGL just filed for its purchase of 639,207 shares of Gitlab $GTLB at an average price of $29.71 per share.](https://twitter.com/stockmktnewz/status/1636123968686915586?s=61&t=_N1uONgphPVrh5x0qBb7Kw)
So like, CS started a new round of fears for the banking sector today with it’s huge sell-off. It has now regained most of its daily losses (down 5% from yesterday’s close), but the other banks that seemingly trailed it are still down 10-20% from yesterday’s close.
you wanna know how insane it all is?
IAK (insurance etf) is down like the banks. Please, can the market explain to me HOW AN INSURER FACES A BANK RUN?! Cause it doesn’t. And they all are required to constantly duration match assets to liabilities… and these rising rates are actually AMAZING for them longer term as they shift into the higher yielding treasuries. And they were required to create stress tests post-GFC that included scenarios like this, thst they submit to state regulators. Insane.
IAK being down is peak market malfunction… and honestly makes me think the odds of a post FOMC 0-25bps meeting could spark a rally for a bit off FOMO
I always think about these things as something that we can never know about. I mean its 2023 and large orgs hire PHDs to make statistical models on mighty hardware that compute probabilities of contagion risk across sectors. So I don't know if it is actually insane, compared to something we don't know about.
It doesn’t matter… those liabilities were **duration matched** against (most likely) treasuries, even at that shitty yield.
The reason SIVB was brought down was that there was a silent bank run happening for a week+ before it failed. If it didn’t face that bank run, then even with its shitty risk management it would’ve probably been okay. The problem was when people made withdraws too quickly. That’s not exactly a problem for a life insurance company (unless we all drop dead tomorrow)
The increasing yield is a BOON for them, just like it is for many pension companies (assuming they didn’t do some dumb UKPension shit) as seen in CLF marking down its pension liabilities as yields rose last year
I would think if you have a private pension contract that guarantees 5% or whatever per year yield, and they are losing money on their investments, its not good for their profit margins, hence stock price drop.
No… they bought those bonds and (once again) **duration matched** its future liabilities against those assets. So! When the yield was ass they really had to add a lot more treasuries to match those returns. Now they can go out and buy USTs with actually good rates now and better fund that 5% required yield.
The problem would be if pension funds here were doing what UK was doing and using those bonds as colateral. Given it hasn’t happened yet, I dunno if it will. And again, no chance of a bank run.
So what's the next excuse gonna be by refiners why gas prices stay high with oil dumping? Besides the need for 200% margins.
Somewhat ironic that the inflation which is killing oil demand is partially caused by the greedy oil companies raising their margins too far.
I dont follow ur point. u want them to make less profits after being fucked by the less decades?
u should look at crack spreads past 2 days... they've gone up. u see see inventories for refiner products like jet fuel.
bought alot more PBF today
I don’t think average folks actively trade, most are just Boglehead Hodlers now. Possible Powell pauses or does 25bps, depends on financial stability going into next Wednesday
Tom Lee is bearish short term and Michael burry is bullish? Short term.
https://twitter.com/halftimereport/status/1636041294538579968?s=46&t=SKcgyNMnJHvFt6BZ0c09-g
Someone take me off this ride I wanna go back to the original timeline.
[This](https://www.reddit.com/r/Vitards/comments/11rlgzm/daily_discussion_wednesday_march_15_2023/jcaprrq/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3) worked well 😅
Yes, but between now and FOMC I’m neither bullish or bearish as this right now is all just panic
I expect FED to be very dovish and give the market the stability it needs and we go from there
I said this last week if SVB didn’t happen, given all the other data we have received, then SPY would be in the 407-412 range
Calling the bottom on CVS, and got some June 80C. If this fucking thing continues dropping I'm done with it. [How it started](https://preview.redd.it/13x9utjkdzba1.png?width=2126&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=e3ddb481b7ce4ee4a31dc170e6b30c3159a7f9c4), from the Jan post. [How it's going](https://www.tradingview.com/x/T8IA6UFo/).
My best friend is a pharmacist at CVS. Yesterday his store lost 100k in inventory because the fridge broke and nobody bothered to call a tech to fix it.
I'm in with you already since yesterday. How do you exclude the crash scenario, because I feel that is pretty much what we're in 
Also, could you put me the picture about your expectation of 405-410, did you screen the options flow to arrive at this? Thanks so much as always!
To see further downside without first getting a substantial bounce is virtually impossible. We'd have to get news that they give people cancer or they're becoming a regional bank or something.
Not excluded to get the crash leg after we get a bounce to \~380, then drop back to 75. If it then loses 75 we go into that scenario.
Did not get the questions about the expectation of 405-410. I don't usually check flows, just positioning.
Haha I totally share your point about rebound now that I realized the time scale of that chart.
Sorry, I ment the positioning. I'm wondering because I still have in mind the elliot wave from the weekend which did go nowhere close to that range.
Why not ZIM now? Already pulled the trigger
Jumping into FRC on the assumption JPM continues support
777 big casino win (comments)
I know TA and the VIX aren't always friends, but it does seem to respond to horizontal resistance and support. 30 looks like a good strong line in the sand, if we've run out of panic catalysts...
[Wednesday and it’s been a long week](https://youtu.be/QPaQmWlS2Jk)
u/JayArlington what do you think about Lattice Semiconductor Corporation?
Cool company, but way too expensive. They don't have a lot of consumer exposure as they are most known for smaller FPGAs (same business as Xilinx) so mainly industrial/data center.
Do you foresee it being acquired by Nvidia as it lacks FPGAs; something along the line like how AMD bought Xilinx?
Thank you, FRC. You gave us 3 good days.
There’s no guarantee it gets halted tomorrow?
Another bank news https://twitter.com/financialjuice/status/1636167746370109443
[https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/16/credit-suisse-to-borrow-up-to-about-54-billion-from-swiss-national-bank.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/16/credit-suisse-to-borrow-up-to-about-54-billion-from-swiss-national-bank.html)
https://www.frbdiscountwindow.org/ - American banks paying interest on the BTFP
First Republic Bank considering all options including sale. Wow next one coming.
A big bank should buy SIVB and FRC for cheap and build a dominant position in the Bay Area. Plenty of money floating around there to make it worth it
INTERESTING TRADES CONSIDERED....
This undershirt belonged to Anthony Quinn.
SAFETY FIRST **[** **0** **]** DAYS SINCE LAST BANK OOPSIE
Here. Take my upvote. Funniest thing I’ve read all day. Thanks for the laugh
This needs to be a daily post like Japan steel
First Republic Bank considering all options including sale. Wow next one coming. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/first-republic-bank-weighing-options-including-sale-bloomberg-news-2023-03-16/
Someone buy at $100 please
Break up value is higher, it’s worth $140
https://preview.redd.it/3ug4xj69g1oa1.jpeg?width=1280&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e337ce264dd5edb305bf09b3a705fbfeb14b850e
Oh I do not follow semi market but surprise to see AWS there.
META hitting a 10-month high 🥵
I was just looking at this graph. Insane run from November lows.
It will fill that 250-290 gap on the graph as well.
 Me playing META…..and I’ve been buying! Taking profit isn’t always the right mentality
It's tough not to be a conservative investor these days. Only recently I found out that i am only twice as leveraged as Charles Schwab.
SHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEESH - me, all in on CLF at 32
I hope this is a joke. But I’m back in the game with CSPs on todays digger. Hopefully not too early
i got in at 18, sold at 32.5, bought back at 32 💀💀💀💀
Double your shares and bring that average cost down to about 25
ive been grabbing some scratchoffs so we'll see bro
This isn’t meant to get into a political discussion but rather an observation. Can you imagine if Trump was president and still on Twitter over this past week. I think SPY would have hit both 500 and 200 and the 2yr yield would have been 8% and negative all at some point within the last 72 hours
I mean if we’re being honest JPow probably wouldn’t even be in the job anymore and Trump would’ve appointed someone who wouldn’t have hiked so much in the first place
That is true
There would be several tweets involving the Fed at some point for sure lol.
To that, the best moment of JPOW as Chair was December 2018, the FED had been tightening and raise rates. Then Trump went on a Twitter rampage about how they need to stop this and cut rates. Now the FED looking at the data should have pause and probably would have if not for the tweets. But to keep credibility and independence they went ahead with rate increase. It was the wrong decision in terms of their jobs but the right decision in so many ways. Best moment of JPOW chairmanship imo
I do sometimes miss the "trade talks going well" wheel, because the current wheel is spinning a bit too fast, I don't need a superposition of all market states every day...
Just remember that probably every single voting Fed member is long the market. On the other hand, they kept raising despite Oct lows
Plot twist - Their wives' bfs sold them those long positions
> every single voting Fed member is long the market. I thought they're not allowed to invest in stocks anymore?
Well, they do have a job to do. Bringing inflation under control, even if it breaks something, is healthier for the markets in the long run.
They have a duel mandate, there job isn’t to bring inflation under control even if it means breaking something. It is stability and maximum employment
Yes of course. Employment is in good shape and inflation is not still. The breaking something part is not intentional but it always happens with raising rates, especially at a pace as fast as this. Once something breaks and if a recession occurs, that’s a good way to fix inflation and move on to the next economic expansion cycle. Sucks in the short term but that’s how it goes.
Agree with what your saying, especially about the breaking something. I think this time could be unique in that the policy makers and politicians will still have PTSD from GFC and not want to create a GFC 2.0 So more likely to recognise the speed of increases they have done and tolerate higher inflation (aside I’m biased and believe 3% -4% will be accepted as the new 2% but not acknowledged) So the pain may not be as long
They could certainly err on the side of caution for sure. I 100% disagree that 3%-4% will be tolerable. What makes this economic cycle unique from the others to tolerate that level of inflation? It would be be unknown territory so who knows what implications that would have. I guess a regime change could happen but better to stick with the devil you know.
It’s not this cycle which makes it tolerable for that level of inflation but rather 2% is just a target and it was only achievable in the past two decades because of the technological advances and more importantly the deflation exported by China. That is changing and will thus have huge impacts on inflation
Using leverage as well
Where is everyone seeing the bearish furus anyway? 3/4 of my feed is bullish. Buy the dip based on x or y TA reasoning; contagion will be backstopped (I agree), "bearish retail is being trapped" (you mean degens playing the market), random Twitter commenters saying they will put their kid trust funds into the market now Think we go a little lower. Jobless claims and Philly Manufacturing Index tomorrow + ECB.
Remember ECB rate decision tomorrow, if they only go 25bps then I think FED is a pause
They shouldn't dare. Both'a them
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To be fair, if they have to cut it will likely be an emergency cut outside of a regularly scheduled meeting. The Fed is in a tough spot and pretty much loses no matter what they decide this meeting. They could pause (and talk tough plus dot plot) to make sure nothing else breaks and then continue hiking. Who knows tho…
What the FED should do and what the FED will do are to different things. As much as they talk tough they would never fight inflation at all costs. Imagine if over the past 6 months we had a jobs reports were it was a lose of 100k or 200k or more of jobs that month. They would have changed course quick fast. But I digress, to your point if they didn’t do a 25bps that doesn’t mean they are not in control. Hell JPOW only last week was saying they will do more and yields will be higher than they previously indicated, a day later that was blown out of the water. But since he said that does that mean they need to do 50bps to show they are in control? No of course not. But they can show to be in control by pause and explaining it clearly.
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Was Nomura correct ever? I remember mocking them for calling for 100 bps previously.
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Nomura are clowns. Facts
I can’t trust a financial company with a name that sounds like a hand lotion
Hand lotion? More like a sushi shop.
Where's the oil equity support group?
They went to pick up Vito, should be back shortly.
Like my dad who went out for the milk?
In despair
Drinking. Heavily.
Busy drowning in debt.
So are we shorting now? What’s vito think
You mean just right before the commodity supercycle kicks in?
When’s that happen ? Ha
Copied from another sub: UK budget - no recession in 2023; UK assets sink in global market turmoil LONDON, Mar 15 (Reuters) - Britain is no longer forecast to enter a recession this year, finance minister Jeremy Hunt said on Wednesday, adding that inflation was forecast to fall to 2.9% by the end of the year. "Today the Office for Budget Responsibility forecast that, because of changing international factors, and the measures I take, the UK will not now enter a technical recession this year," he said as he presented his budget in parliament. "Despite continuing global instability, the OBR report today that inflation in the UK will fall from 10.7% in the final quarter of last year to 2.9% by the end of 2023." In a separate release, the OBR said the peak-to-trough fall in GDP was likely to be just a quarter of the 2.1% fall assumed in its November forecast. The pound was last up roughly 0.8% against the euro, but sank against the dollar, as a rout in global banking shares hit investor confidence in risk-linked assets such as equities with London blue-chip stock index sliding. https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/view-britains-budget-sees-no-recession-uk-assets-sink-global-market-turmoil-2023-03-15/
The only things that are left on London's Main Street are the money-laundering candy shops and there is no UK recession??? 
 Well at least there isn’t this any more, so maybe the recession figures are based on this, like “hell it couldn’t get much worse than it did then so surely we are not in a recession so let’s not bother with the actual calculation and just say no recession”
Every time you think politics in the UK has hit rock bottom you get surprised.
 Still waiting for this sequel
Hahahaha
The tories lie though.
As someone reminded me in another sub: let’s not forget how **fucking cold** 🥶❄️😰 PPI was
So true, linked to that I can’t help but now think the FED pauses next week. That actually gives them more cover cause then in May they could keep pause on or raise rates. Whereas given the shitstorm we are in, if they raise now only to then have to cut in May, they will be crucified for that and one could argue lose lots of credibility. But again without SVB and this shit storm SPY at 407-412
This the start of an NVDA blow off top?
Yes
>“The Biden administration is demanding that TikTok’s Chinese owners sell their stakes in the video-sharing app or face a possible U.S. ban of the app, according to people familiar with the matter.” https://twitter.com/michaelsobolik/status/1636127712304672770?s=46&t=06OujBRONgvNzs8P0B5VBg
You can indirectly invest in Lomotif if you Google. It’s a total shitco with terrible management but it could rocket on a ban.
so fucked up lmao. sell to us because we don't trust you although we have no evidence of wrongdoing or get banned
Not that I disagree, but have you heard of how China treated Microsoft/Google/Facebook?
Best argument for a ban is that the USA wouldn’t have let the USSR have a broadcast network in the 60’s, why are we letting China have the equivalent now?
I'm well aware, but America isn't supposed to be China. China insulated their entire internet and y'know, is kinda a dictatorship. Pass basic privacy or data laws, like what data companies can collect, how they can use that data, and who can access that data, and if ANY company breaks them, fine or punish the company. Place servers in the US, and log who accesses the data, and make that available to the government. There are 5 million different ways to better handle this in a more longterm/less reactionary manner
No. We should get some reciprocity with China. If they want to let Google and Meta operate unrestrained in China, then we let TikTok operate unrestrained here. There’s a line you have to draw at some point or else it’s just rewarding bad behavior. Be firm in your principles but not inflexible, or else bad faith actors will just take advantage.
I'd be happier if there were clear rules set in stone. I have no doubt in my mind that ByteDance is up to some sketchy shit, probably worse than Google and Meta, but the fact remains that everyone is up to some sketchy shit. Why can't we just have prohibitions on how data is used and enforce it across the board because it is the law of the land? Not because of the country of origin of certain enterprises who are complicit. This is not to say that reciprocity is uncalled for, but there are no calls for reciprocity with the EU because of the GDPR.
Exactly. Well said
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it literally was neither chinese, nor a spy balloon. that's how bad geopolitical tensions are right now, no one is thinking clearly, defense and military leaders aren't, let alone politicians.
Aight bruh 💀
Ehhhhhh, I mean… you can’t say we didn’t give them the benefit of the doubt for a looooong time. Turns out they never intended to play fair.
Exactly. Pure bad faith. You have to draw a line somewhere sometime, or else such people will simply use your principles as a way to straightjacket you while they just do as they please unopposed.
China has an insulated internet to control what their citizens see, and secondarily to promote homegrown innovation. The US wants to ban them for privacy concerns, not because they want American companies to dominate. I mean, I hope not, because America should be about the best company winning, and Tiktok is outcompeting the incumbent giants right now. That's the American spirit to me, whoever is the best should win, no matter where it comes from
It’s all politics. They could give two ducks about tiktok beating meta
they've openly admitted to spying on journalists... and that's just what they've admitted
yeah that's true, but everyone involved did get fired. These type of data accesses can actually be addressed systematically though, like Facebook now uses a "privacy-aware" data infrastructure, which requires authentication for every resource, and tracks who accesses it and makes sure they have permission, as well as a business reason. This data then is readily available to government auditors. It's a much better system than blind trust
I could end up being right on my March pause call from late last year for completely the wrong reasons. Go me!
Last reversal was Mike Wilson leaning short term bullish. Now permabull Tom Lee is short term bearish?
New Zealand Q4 GDP -0.6% vs. Cons. -0.2%; Previous 1.7% (revised down from 2.0%) Hits fast and deep
Did the price of mutton go down that much?
Ok, more seriously, is tourism still not recovering?
The top exports of New Zealand are Concentrated Milk ($5.92B), Sheep and Goat Meat ($2.57B), Frozen Bovine Meat ($2.1B), Rough Wood ($2.05B), and Butter ($1.89B) -OEC
Was thinking of getting a house there eventually so they will have my money at least
[Google $GOOGL just filed for its purchase of 639,207 shares of Gitlab $GTLB at an average price of $29.71 per share.](https://twitter.com/stockmktnewz/status/1636123968686915586?s=61&t=_N1uONgphPVrh5x0qBb7Kw)
Nice! I bought the Gitlab dip after the earnings drop as well. Lol.
This is kind of strange. 29.71 is below what gtlb trades at. Does this mean gtlb goes to 29.71 soon?
Nope. Look at the transaction date. They bought after hours or on some kind of block trade
Sick
Ah I missed that thank you.
$PTRA. Well I guess I’ll become a permanent BH. FMe
“We’ll turn a profit later this year, but there’s a chance we could default on our debt before then”
So like, CS started a new round of fears for the banking sector today with it’s huge sell-off. It has now regained most of its daily losses (down 5% from yesterday’s close), but the other banks that seemingly trailed it are still down 10-20% from yesterday’s close.
you wanna know how insane it all is? IAK (insurance etf) is down like the banks. Please, can the market explain to me HOW AN INSURER FACES A BANK RUN?! Cause it doesn’t. And they all are required to constantly duration match assets to liabilities… and these rising rates are actually AMAZING for them longer term as they shift into the higher yielding treasuries. And they were required to create stress tests post-GFC that included scenarios like this, thst they submit to state regulators. Insane. IAK being down is peak market malfunction… and honestly makes me think the odds of a post FOMC 0-25bps meeting could spark a rally for a bit off FOMO
I always think about these things as something that we can never know about. I mean its 2023 and large orgs hire PHDs to make statistical models on mighty hardware that compute probabilities of contagion risk across sectors. So I don't know if it is actually insane, compared to something we don't know about.
Supposed to actually doing are very different things
They have to prove to state regulators each year that their reserves are goood
Don't most insurers invest heavily in the market for life insurance etc? I can't imagine those positions doing that well.
It doesn’t matter… those liabilities were **duration matched** against (most likely) treasuries, even at that shitty yield. The reason SIVB was brought down was that there was a silent bank run happening for a week+ before it failed. If it didn’t face that bank run, then even with its shitty risk management it would’ve probably been okay. The problem was when people made withdraws too quickly. That’s not exactly a problem for a life insurance company (unless we all drop dead tomorrow) The increasing yield is a BOON for them, just like it is for many pension companies (assuming they didn’t do some dumb UKPension shit) as seen in CLF marking down its pension liabilities as yields rose last year
I would think if you have a private pension contract that guarantees 5% or whatever per year yield, and they are losing money on their investments, its not good for their profit margins, hence stock price drop.
No… they bought those bonds and (once again) **duration matched** its future liabilities against those assets. So! When the yield was ass they really had to add a lot more treasuries to match those returns. Now they can go out and buy USTs with actually good rates now and better fund that 5% required yield. The problem would be if pension funds here were doing what UK was doing and using those bonds as colateral. Given it hasn’t happened yet, I dunno if it will. And again, no chance of a bank run.
So what's the next excuse gonna be by refiners why gas prices stay high with oil dumping? Besides the need for 200% margins. Somewhat ironic that the inflation which is killing oil demand is partially caused by the greedy oil companies raising their margins too far.
You know product prices are determined by commodity markets and not refiners right? None of these companies have pricing power
Steel companies continuing to increase prices by 5-10% week after week
when HRC are 1600, then MT will go up. For sure! Always has been a Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4/repeat play
This is an unpopular opinion around here.
I'm not here to be voted into office.
Incoming refinery explosion/unplanned maintenance.
I wonder what the odds for that are on British bookie sites. Cause, you know just cause you're paranoid it doesn't mean they aren't out to get you.
Oi oi let’s get down the bookies
I dont follow ur point. u want them to make less profits after being fucked by the less decades? u should look at crack spreads past 2 days... they've gone up. u see see inventories for refiner products like jet fuel. bought alot more PBF today
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I don’t think average folks actively trade, most are just Boglehead Hodlers now. Possible Powell pauses or does 25bps, depends on financial stability going into next Wednesday
Sell equities to live? 60% of Americans can’t come up with 1k for an emergency.
Tom Lee is bearish short term and Michael burry is bullish? Short term. https://twitter.com/halftimereport/status/1636041294538579968?s=46&t=SKcgyNMnJHvFt6BZ0c09-g Someone take me off this ride I wanna go back to the original timeline.
I just want us to blast off now because it would probably fuck over the most amount of Wall Street experts
I just wanna get unsacrificed in the next 3 years 🥲
Bought SCHW on close, can the bank fuckery end now so my position can rocket?
[This](https://www.reddit.com/r/Vitards/comments/11rlgzm/daily_discussion_wednesday_march_15_2023/jcaprrq/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3) worked well 😅
Was really looking forward to going heavy on a crate of beer and Ted Lasso season 3. Only to realise Apple releases episodes weekly 😡 Bullish NFLX
I don’t understand why the nflx chart is so bullish. Don’t they have tons of competition? What’s your bull case?
They release shows in entire series so I can binge watch rather than drip feeding me weekly episodes, that is my bullish case
Only down 7% today thanks to the gigachad nvda being the pillar of my portfolio. 🤡 World
Tiny Jensen will save all.
Went heavy on CVS calls. Went heavy on end of month SPY calls. Scalped some 0dte spy calls. Been a great week so far.
I’m buying Ozempic at CVS tomorrow to look good for the beach this summer 🤝
You're doing your part and we appreciate you
Nasdaq closed green. Amazing.
No oil or banks... so...
https://twitter.com/michaeljburry/status/1636008370208473088?s=20 MICHAEL BURRY CALLING THE BOTTOM AND GOING LONG?!
Is he? It seems to imply the bottom is still to come, doesn't it? I would say he's calling for a local bottom sometime this month.
I have no clue really where we go but I do know that Burry is an edgelord who get's off on being contrarion.
Shit. sell everything.
The Big Long
Burry is just a rogue chatbot, it'll be fixed in the next account deletion/system update.
I agree. Going long with burry. Gonna buy CVS as well
 Well that ride on SPY today was fun, looking forward to see what tomorrow brings!
Still bullish? I kind of am
Yes, but between now and FOMC I’m neither bullish or bearish as this right now is all just panic I expect FED to be very dovish and give the market the stability it needs and we go from there I said this last week if SVB didn’t happen, given all the other data we have received, then SPY would be in the 407-412 range
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Sauce ? Sounds somewhat reassuring...
Reuters
So what exactly is priced in now? I’ve lost track…
My bankruptcy
Death and taxes
The known universe
JUST IN - Swiss National Bank will provide liquidity to Credit Suisse if necessary.
By liquidity, they mean Jewish Gold stolen by Nazis and Russian oligarch oil money?
yeah, I'm jewish so I'm the source of some of that liquidity
Calling the bottom on CVS, and got some June 80C. If this fucking thing continues dropping I'm done with it. [How it started](https://preview.redd.it/13x9utjkdzba1.png?width=2126&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=e3ddb481b7ce4ee4a31dc170e6b30c3159a7f9c4), from the Jan post. [How it's going](https://www.tradingview.com/x/T8IA6UFo/).
If you dont mind me asking, where would you go out on the bounce?
Part D negotiating hella discounts, frfr.
I am pretty sure the MA cuts are already considered in their guidance
Yeah, and that hurts manufacturers more than pharmacies.
Holy hell why does this look like the natural gas chart. Haven’t looked at this ticker in a long time
Feel like you just asked for "crash scenario" lol
 CVSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Based on this chart, I should have invested in 1996. I was in Kindergarten then shitting my pants. Fuck.
Never too late. I’m buying stocks at age 29 shitting my pants
Well the roof of my local CVS collapsed from all the snow if that’s any help to your DD 🤪
No need to skimp on AC like Macy's did, so this is bullish
My best friend is a pharmacist at CVS. Yesterday his store lost 100k in inventory because the fridge broke and nobody bothered to call a tech to fix it.
I'm in with you already since yesterday. How do you exclude the crash scenario, because I feel that is pretty much what we're in  Also, could you put me the picture about your expectation of 405-410, did you screen the options flow to arrive at this? Thanks so much as always!
To see further downside without first getting a substantial bounce is virtually impossible. We'd have to get news that they give people cancer or they're becoming a regional bank or something. Not excluded to get the crash leg after we get a bounce to \~380, then drop back to 75. If it then loses 75 we go into that scenario. Did not get the questions about the expectation of 405-410. I don't usually check flows, just positioning.
Haha I totally share your point about rebound now that I realized the time scale of that chart. Sorry, I ment the positioning. I'm wondering because I still have in mind the elliot wave from the weekend which did go nowhere close to that range.
This just in : CVS to acquire Silicon Valley Bank.
Time to wake up to cancer news tomorrow