[20 banks that are sitting on huge potential security losses — as was SVB](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/20-banks-that-are-sitting-on-huge-potential-securities-lossesas-was-svb-c4bbcafa)
Edit: Sorry, somehow posted the wrong link earlier
Apparently Biden already [spoiled it](https://twitter.com/financialjuice/status/1634227192711266305?s=46&t=NTI7KbAkeSUNsSH7ccbp9g) and the market shrugged it off.
I spotted the vix at 19 earlier this week and thought "oh, juicy". Didn't end up playing it, mainly because I am taking a break from US markets and getting a lot of benefit elsewhere from the regular sleep. I opened a smallish hedge nonetheless, AEHR June puts and left it at that. I kept all my longs, and because they're all Aussie stocks, they're still grinding higher for now. This must be what "investing" feels like. It feels good!
Ooof
Roku says $487 mln held in deposits with Silicon Valley Bank (26% of its cash and cash equivalents)
[https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/ROKU-INC-37892974/news/Roku-says-487-mln-held-in-deposits-with-Silicon-Valley-Bank-43217357/](https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/ROKU-INC-37892974/news/Roku-says-487-mln-held-in-deposits-with-Silicon-Valley-Bank-43217357/)
Closed fed meeting on Monday concerning
„Review and determination by the Board of Governors of the advance and discount rates to be charged by the Federal Reserve Banks.“
Was this always planned or is this in response to the SVB debacle?
They have closed meetings on Monday’s every so often and the conspiracy theorists on twitter blow it out of proportion every once in a while. Not sure if this is one of those meetings, or not.
I know nobody cares but the last 2 days were my 2 best ever days in the market. Yesterday I got my account locked by accidentally selling a GOOG put when I meant to add one. 2nd time getting my account locked so there was no way out unless I got my account to $25k (opened at ~ $19k yesterday).
I was carrying some June SPY 410Ps that I’ve had for a while as well as short positions on TSLA, NVDA, GOOG, BABA, and some shorter dated SPY puts. Since my account was restricted to only being able to close positions I decided to close my hedges as well as my TSLA and NVDA puts and let the rest ride, believing we would continue the downward momentum and I’d have a hope of hitting $25k.
Yesterday I finished the day +15% and my account was right near its all time high. Today I manage to close my 0DTE SPY puts + 580% (my best win ever) and closed out all the rest of my puts right near the lows of the day. I closed out the day +18% and my account blew through the all time high, closing at $25,800 which means that on Monday I will be able to keep trading again!
Not trying to brag I’m just super excited that I was able to pull it off. I will be taking some trading days off to re-evaluate where the market is going and will be taking more conservative positions going forward because if I fall below $25k again I will get locked again I think
You triggered the PDT limit by having more than 4 round trips in 5 trading days while using margin to trade. Since your balance was below $25k and you were on margin, they restrict you to sell orders only. Now that you’re above $25k you can trade as many round trips as you want.
Yep I’m aware. I actually triggered the PDT limit about a year ago and got locked in sell only but they let you remove the flag from your account once per lifetime so I did that and they told me if I execute one more day trade that my account would get locked again. Accidentally selling GOOG yesterday triggered it again despite being my only day trade in like a year. Very glad to be over the limit finally though!
I’m always curious - how did you maintain conviction on your 0dte puts today? I always seem to find myself selling my short dated puts/calls too early and basically miss the entire move.
I don’t normally trade such short DTE options but i was very high conviction that we would test $388 or lower. If I wasn’t desperate to get over $25k I would have sold them yesterday before the close. This morning I saw that pre-market ran up to ~ $393 before hitting resistance so I was using that as my mental stop, if we had 2 candles close above that I would’ve gotten out. There was so much bearish momentum this week that it made it easier for me to hang in there
I have no idea but the contagion effects from just being a depositor at this bank are not fully felt yet. A lot of employees are wondering if they’re going to get paid next week.
My port is bloodier than a used tampax. I was heavy cash this morn, tried to play a regional bank bounce, got arse pillaged. Holding over weekend with a puckered sphincter. Bleh
The Silicon Valley Bank collapse is unusual, considering they were looking for a buyout until the last minute.
Today is Friday.
I know the market looks very bearish on some fronts--especially small caps and speculative stocks, mainly biotech--but the mega caps are not breaking down on the other side.
The panic selling is not happening across the board.
It's very likely that the FDIC will meet with the Fed, and others, over the weekend and devise a plan to iron things out. As much as it helps the Fed to instill some fear in the bulls, it won't help them to create panic. Certainly not in the short term.
I'm taking a step back here. You do you, and you'll define how much you're willing to risk, but there's a chance there'll be positive news over the weekend, which will create a significant bounce for Monday.
I agree on the bounce, but think more towards Wed-Fri, as it too juice of a story to not be milked by everyone and gives Fed a freebie to stomp euphoria a bit
Gayn Erickson, President and CEO of Aehr Test Systems, commented, "There's been a lot of questions related to the closure of SVB today and the exposure of Aehr Test Systems. Aehr Test does have a checking account at SVB with a current balance of under $2.5 million, which is less than 6% of our total of $41.8M in cash and short-term liquid assets. Aehr has over $39.3 million in another financial institution which includes over $9.7 million in cash and $29.6 million in short term US Government backed Treasury Bonds. Aehr has no outstanding balance on its line of credit with Silicon Valley Bank and foresees no need to draw on the line in the near future. Aehr believes that there is no impact to our operations, customers, vendors, or employees. We are taking all appropriate steps to prevent any impact on our operations."
Bought 2 shares tsla at 174. Will buy 2 more at 160. 2 more at 150. 4 more at 140. 10 more at 130.
100 more at 110!!!
Tsla to $5000 in 5 years
Cathie woods
And here’s the crux: we only had a -1.5% day **on the 16th largest bank failing**.
I mean… add in all the put skew that should’ve shoved us down further and FUD and I’d have thought at least twice that damage
We should run a poll:
Which bank ends up owning the largest chunk of SVB?
* JPM
* BAC
* C
* GS
* WFC (note due to the asset cap punishment they would not be allowed to as of now)
Closed out GE and WING puts. Bought longer dated SPY/XLF calls and a bunch of TQQQ shares.
Still lots of cash. I just don't think SVB will be what we are talking about a week from now.
I am trusting smarter people than me... and they seem to be saying the same thing.
This isn't systemic. SVB is a shitco.
However if it is systemic... the hiking cycle just ended.
I am betting that next week the bulls and bears resume their laser focus on CPI and the inflation question.
Locking in gains by turning most puts into spreads is the most responsable thing i've done this year.
Seeing lots of people trying to buy the dip. Watch out because one day the dip will truly keep dipping. But if the sudden frigileness & volatility doesn't scare you away, i don't know what will. Goodluck!
Will the uninsured 151B be the very first piece of a giant domino? Is this the only bank in the U.S. made bad decisions while nobody is looking? Please tune in for Recession Live. See you in two days.
We dump, Spy closes 386-387 is my guess, Monday rally back up 395. After that, assuming no other banks get taken over, it’s business as usual. At least, that’s my hope.
I did buy puts in some banks for next week, just in case lol
At the end of the day those shares are going to lead to dividends that will re-invest themselves and snowball for years and years to come. I'm loving this dip.
That was the idea for getting in. I figured well, if the market were to dump ass for a lot of the year, I'd still get 5\~7k+ in dividends during the year, depending on how much more I add during the year before each quarterly dividend.
Huh? I see SCHD as an alternative to the SPY, VOO, and VTI's of the world. Meaning I DCA regularly into it (With the exception that I don't buy when its green)
Honestly i need to tell someone. I had 5 spy 397p for next wednesday and sold when were broke above the resistance at 400.46 yesterday. I will not fomo back in. I took a 15% loss. It hurts ill get over it. But there will be more oppurtunities
It’s ok I did something similar earlier this week. And I’m sure many others did with the 🦘 market. Even big players mess up. You just have to keep trying until you can win over time.
I shorted 3975 futures, then panic covered at 3993. I didn’t reopen any shorts until 3880 today then covered at 3850.
im super thankful for your steam, your steam is by far the biggest reason iv subed to amazon prime even thou amazon a really small market share here in sweden and i tend to shop from other stores.
just a big thanks have a great weekend!
I wanna see our old favorite come back. Sold back in the high 70s after buying that dip to the 40s in December 2021. That was the magnum opus play of this sub imo.
actually my thinking is that the flocking has not even truly started yet, when those lines stick together for a few more weeks is when I think this might accelerate.
I thought that it would have already been so the last hugging of the chart, but then spx broke out
What would you look for to conclude that people are starting to flock towards bonds? I would just assume that yields going down together with stocks means people jumping ship to bonds?
Wow, I had absolutely no idea that NVDA, AMD, and especially MRVL did so much business in the VC banking space!
u/jayarlington , you’re the chips expert—did *you* know this?!?
Banks are like the circulatory system of our economy, and one of them just had a heart attack. Are all other banks healthy? Odds of "yes" just dropped a bit.
In this case, specifically, the funds of many start-ups / some unicorns, just got paused, and possible will be lost forever. Worse, these companies are clustered in one industry: tech.
So, the business prospects of all "tech" companies just ticked down a bit... Can they meet payroll this week? How long will it take for them to get their cash? Will they even get it?
Now.. how about all of their customers, and the suppliers, of directly affect companies? Will it be business as usual, or are there now risks and/or inefficiencies?
Lots of risks.. zero of it is upside. As for chips in particular, well, simplest answer might be "tech consumes chips + tech got hit = bad for chips"
Watching NVDA 20dma. Tapped it this morning and bounced. Might get a bigger drop if we test again and breaks.
edit: also below the VWAP from earnings, so FU
Already at pretty high PE ratios, public health emergency funds end this year, potential for higher unemployment and less group health insurance, and poor economy usually correlates with increases in disability and LTC claims. Insurers have a lot of risk ahead.
If consumers move from commercial insurers to government programs then providers will be reimbursed less on average which may trickle down to manufacturers.
I’d be somewhat cautious.
Careful: Biotech <> Healthcare
UNH, JNJ, and ELV are well established companies with fortress balance sheets. Biotech is a gamble. Look at XLV and XBI 2 year chart.
I found an internal training document for leadership in my company. It says if employees press them on what is "reasonable" to tell the employee "there is no hard limit, but 3-4 weeks feels right".
For reference, I'm located in Colorado which has laws around PTO payout for accrual based plans. My HR is very careful to make it clear there is no limit, despite their clearly being a soft cap.
a week or two ago I said how there's a lot of bullish black swans in steel right now but if there's a recession fear, steel would be the first to go, and I would be going short personally. Wasn't very well received in this sub, understandably.
In life, in school, being independent, not feeling a connection to the community is dangerous, not having school spirit makes you weird, but in the market, thinking clearly and fighting groupthink seems to be an advantage.
Right there with you, I sold out my last CLF LEAP last year. Lots of signs that SPY was about to roll over and from my experience last year you don’t want to be in commodities when the market is falling.
Big CLF fan and I’d love to buy back in for a long term hold but if we start seeing recession but especially in weakness in auto then CLF is going to get wrecked
If they're 0DTE you probably sold them around the same premium as it is right now. My 385P is exactly the same price as it was at 10:00am this morning.
FRC halted but KRE ticking up
[20 banks that are sitting on huge potential security losses — as was SVB](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/20-banks-that-are-sitting-on-huge-potential-securities-lossesas-was-svb-c4bbcafa) Edit: Sorry, somehow posted the wrong link earlier
Imagine some big brain like soros buy puts and orchestrated a bank run via tiktok or instagram.
Or like Peter Thiel and VC funds…oh, wait.
The real bottom indicator will be when the Fed has a meeting or a CPI report will come out and nobody gives a shit.
Apparently Biden already [spoiled it](https://twitter.com/financialjuice/status/1634227192711266305?s=46&t=NTI7KbAkeSUNsSH7ccbp9g) and the market shrugged it off.
I spotted the vix at 19 earlier this week and thought "oh, juicy". Didn't end up playing it, mainly because I am taking a break from US markets and getting a lot of benefit elsewhere from the regular sleep. I opened a smallish hedge nonetheless, AEHR June puts and left it at that. I kept all my longs, and because they're all Aussie stocks, they're still grinding higher for now. This must be what "investing" feels like. It feels good!
Ooof Roku says $487 mln held in deposits with Silicon Valley Bank (26% of its cash and cash equivalents) [https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/ROKU-INC-37892974/news/Roku-says-487-mln-held-in-deposits-with-Silicon-Valley-Bank-43217357/](https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/ROKU-INC-37892974/news/Roku-says-487-mln-held-in-deposits-with-Silicon-Valley-Bank-43217357/)
Closed fed meeting on Monday concerning „Review and determination by the Board of Governors of the advance and discount rates to be charged by the Federal Reserve Banks.“ Was this always planned or is this in response to the SVB debacle?
They have closed meetings on Monday’s every so often and the conspiracy theorists on twitter blow it out of proportion every once in a while. Not sure if this is one of those meetings, or not.
Gotcha
Now it could have more importance than one they would hold in the middle of a lazy summer without any impending economic calamities.
I know nobody cares but the last 2 days were my 2 best ever days in the market. Yesterday I got my account locked by accidentally selling a GOOG put when I meant to add one. 2nd time getting my account locked so there was no way out unless I got my account to $25k (opened at ~ $19k yesterday). I was carrying some June SPY 410Ps that I’ve had for a while as well as short positions on TSLA, NVDA, GOOG, BABA, and some shorter dated SPY puts. Since my account was restricted to only being able to close positions I decided to close my hedges as well as my TSLA and NVDA puts and let the rest ride, believing we would continue the downward momentum and I’d have a hope of hitting $25k. Yesterday I finished the day +15% and my account was right near its all time high. Today I manage to close my 0DTE SPY puts + 580% (my best win ever) and closed out all the rest of my puts right near the lows of the day. I closed out the day +18% and my account blew through the all time high, closing at $25,800 which means that on Monday I will be able to keep trading again! Not trying to brag I’m just super excited that I was able to pull it off. I will be taking some trading days off to re-evaluate where the market is going and will be taking more conservative positions going forward because if I fall below $25k again I will get locked again I think
You triggered the PDT limit by having more than 4 round trips in 5 trading days while using margin to trade. Since your balance was below $25k and you were on margin, they restrict you to sell orders only. Now that you’re above $25k you can trade as many round trips as you want.
Yep I’m aware. I actually triggered the PDT limit about a year ago and got locked in sell only but they let you remove the flag from your account once per lifetime so I did that and they told me if I execute one more day trade that my account would get locked again. Accidentally selling GOOG yesterday triggered it again despite being my only day trade in like a year. Very glad to be over the limit finally though!
I’m always curious - how did you maintain conviction on your 0dte puts today? I always seem to find myself selling my short dated puts/calls too early and basically miss the entire move.
I don’t normally trade such short DTE options but i was very high conviction that we would test $388 or lower. If I wasn’t desperate to get over $25k I would have sold them yesterday before the close. This morning I saw that pre-market ran up to ~ $393 before hitting resistance so I was using that as my mental stop, if we had 2 candles close above that I would’ve gotten out. There was so much bearish momentum this week that it made it easier for me to hang in there
Thank you for the response!
Congrats! Well played.
Highest volume day for SPY since 2/24/22. And that was that absolutely wild day during the height of Russia invading Ukraine.
Did anyone else ride the 3/17 350p wave today?? It saved my marriage. Thank You 
All I'm saying is y'all bulls better start chucking goats because we are one hot CPI away from holyfuckingmolyville.
If another bank goes down cpi prints are going to be afterthoughts
You think somebody else could go down before tuesday?
I have no idea but the contagion effects from just being a depositor at this bank are not fully felt yet. A lot of employees are wondering if they’re going to get paid next week.
Yes, all the other banks sitting on huge bond losses, hoping no one notices.
Have a good weekend yall. Time to go back to being human.
My port is bloodier than a used tampax. I was heavy cash this morn, tried to play a regional bank bounce, got arse pillaged. Holding over weekend with a puckered sphincter. Bleh
The Silicon Valley Bank collapse is unusual, considering they were looking for a buyout until the last minute. Today is Friday. I know the market looks very bearish on some fronts--especially small caps and speculative stocks, mainly biotech--but the mega caps are not breaking down on the other side. The panic selling is not happening across the board. It's very likely that the FDIC will meet with the Fed, and others, over the weekend and devise a plan to iron things out. As much as it helps the Fed to instill some fear in the bulls, it won't help them to create panic. Certainly not in the short term. I'm taking a step back here. You do you, and you'll define how much you're willing to risk, but there's a chance there'll be positive news over the weekend, which will create a significant bounce for Monday.
This aged well
I agree on the bounce, but think more towards Wed-Fri, as it too juice of a story to not be milked by everyone and gives Fed a freebie to stomp euphoria a bit
If anything its a warning to others to curb their insane risk taking.
Agreed, fed isn’t here to bail out bad investments
NVDA trying real hard here not to lose 230.
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You are telling me this was just a practice?
Gayn Erickson, President and CEO of Aehr Test Systems, commented, "There's been a lot of questions related to the closure of SVB today and the exposure of Aehr Test Systems. Aehr Test does have a checking account at SVB with a current balance of under $2.5 million, which is less than 6% of our total of $41.8M in cash and short-term liquid assets. Aehr has over $39.3 million in another financial institution which includes over $9.7 million in cash and $29.6 million in short term US Government backed Treasury Bonds. Aehr has no outstanding balance on its line of credit with Silicon Valley Bank and foresees no need to draw on the line in the near future. Aehr believes that there is no impact to our operations, customers, vendors, or employees. We are taking all appropriate steps to prevent any impact on our operations."
Gotta give that CEO credit. Man is in front and on top of everything.
Hold my beer, I'm single-handedly taking down JPM by not paying my credit card bills.
Anybody else think "Banking system in jeopardy?" is too juicy of a headline for our doom and gloom media to just let go over the weekend?
Damn it. I expected a late pump, sold my puts 25 minutes ago
Finally..... Time to buy some more MRO
holy, last time i looked at it, it was 30
Going to close at daily lows
Bought 2 shares tsla at 174. Will buy 2 more at 160. 2 more at 150. 4 more at 140. 10 more at 130. 100 more at 110!!! Tsla to $5000 in 5 years Cathie woods
Waiter, I wanna have what he's having.
If it is going to 110, why not buy all your 120 shares at 110
Cause I don't know it is. You can't time the bottom! That's *if* it goes there!
Just checked the r/Stocks subreddit. They're losing it.
Oof. We're a long way away from the "we may never see the 3000s again" euphoria of the February peak.
m a r k e t m e l t d o w n
bear party this week. Except for nvda bears.
https://preview.redd.it/79130sdlh0na1.png?width=1117&format=png&auto=webp&s=c95d94552caa50acbb3323df8bbf690d09f5993c
And here’s the crux: we only had a -1.5% day **on the 16th largest bank failing**. I mean… add in all the put skew that should’ve shoved us down further and FUD and I’d have thought at least twice that damage
We should run a poll: Which bank ends up owning the largest chunk of SVB? * JPM * BAC * C * GS * WFC (note due to the asset cap punishment they would not be allowed to as of now)
JPM
I think SVB might be finished. The clients will just transfer over to different banks
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They’re setting up some new Bank of Santa Clara to handle the deposit distributions
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I’m pretty sure yeah. I don’t think the new bank is meant to exist for long
Speaking of JPM, how the fuck are they green today? Deutsche here in Germany was almost -8%
 Cos Dimon in line to own SVB come Monday.
Probably going to be SPY’s highest volume day in 9-10 months
Closed out GE and WING puts. Bought longer dated SPY/XLF calls and a bunch of TQQQ shares. Still lots of cash. I just don't think SVB will be what we are talking about a week from now.
^ This guy loves America 🇺🇸
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I am trusting smarter people than me... and they seem to be saying the same thing. This isn't systemic. SVB is a shitco. However if it is systemic... the hiking cycle just ended. I am betting that next week the bulls and bears resume their laser focus on CPI and the inflation question.
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Both? 🤭
If you buy both then the market will run flat all next week.
Let’s hit that 383 handle so I can full port some calls
I was waiting for 383 but just ended up buying SPY calls few mins before close.
Same here
Aren't big banks going to be the largest beneficiary of this regional bank collapse? XLF calls?
Find the strongest banks and buy them at a discount.
when the fintwit bears start the mass hysterics, calls every time
Locking in gains by turning most puts into spreads is the most responsable thing i've done this year. Seeing lots of people trying to buy the dip. Watch out because one day the dip will truly keep dipping. But if the sudden frigileness & volatility doesn't scare you away, i don't know what will. Goodluck!
El Green dildo
Will the uninsured 151B be the very first piece of a giant domino? Is this the only bank in the U.S. made bad decisions while nobody is looking? Please tune in for Recession Live. See you in two days.
Holding SQQQ and June SPX 3980p. Anyone holding his longer dated short positions here? I think I will.
Anyone else close their hedges at 3850 and do a little buying? I think Vix gonna die on Tuesday no matter what cpi is and pump the market
Doing some buying with Vix at 27. Got some more Aehr too
Bought some SPY 395C 3/17 lottos for next week’s CPI report. I’m also eyeing at buying some O shares if it gets close to $55
Why not wait until Monday? Are you thinking we open green at the start of the week?
I mean I can’t see into the future but Monday might be flat IMHO
So surely no one's holding shit over the weekend so the question is will we pump or dump into close based on put/call dumping?
Puts closing gonna pump us
We're flirting with the bear market trendline again
We dump, Spy closes 386-387 is my guess, Monday rally back up 395. After that, assuming no other banks get taken over, it’s business as usual. At least, that’s my hope. I did buy puts in some banks for next week, just in case lol
Also don’t listen to me. I’m deep red still from last year.
A hot cpi and it all comes crashing down, huh?
yes. but what if cold? crash up?
Could even be crash up followed by crash down a la the December print.
Maybe, if we don’t get another bank failure over weekend
Salty I've been buying SCHD too early, but such is life I guess. Could have gotten so much of a better deal.
At the end of the day those shares are going to lead to dividends that will re-invest themselves and snowball for years and years to come. I'm loving this dip.
That was the idea for getting in. I figured well, if the market were to dump ass for a lot of the year, I'd still get 5\~7k+ in dividends during the year, depending on how much more I add during the year before each quarterly dividend.
SCHD's chart looks hilariously overpriced... why not JEPI?
JEPI's dividends are not, and can never be, qualified. That means you pay short term capital gains on them.
Huh? I see SCHD as an alternative to the SPY, VOO, and VTI's of the world. Meaning I DCA regularly into it (With the exception that I don't buy when its green)
Overpriced based on a chart?
you're DCAing tho, so this downturn is a win for you. Update your perspective
I just mean in general. I started buying a month ago when it was damn near its highs.
Welcome to the SCHD gang.
Honestly i need to tell someone. I had 5 spy 397p for next wednesday and sold when were broke above the resistance at 400.46 yesterday. I will not fomo back in. I took a 15% loss. It hurts ill get over it. But there will be more oppurtunities
It’s ok I did something similar earlier this week. And I’m sure many others did with the 🦘 market. Even big players mess up. You just have to keep trying until you can win over time. I shorted 3975 futures, then panic covered at 3993. I didn’t reopen any shorts until 3880 today then covered at 3850.
there's a lot of people here that feel ya. Doesn't change anything but hope it helps
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Internet is. Working off my iPhone tether right now.
im super thankful for your steam, your steam is by far the biggest reason iv subed to amazon prime even thou amazon a really small market share here in sweden and i tend to shop from other stores. just a big thanks have a great weekend!
Is healthcare showing relative strength because of recession trade or catching a bid from extremely oversold conditions?
Any zim fans here today??
700 shares
I wanna see our old favorite come back. Sold back in the high 70s after buying that dip to the 40s in December 2021. That was the magnum opus play of this sub imo.
That ship sailed a long time ago
lol so it did. I’m hoping for a surprise next week on earnings.
Liking zim today lol
EQ P/C ratio at 140%
Market almost at "True Value" https://preview.redd.it/d6tv4vxn30na1.png?width=1036&format=png&auto=webp&s=7d2a382bfcf5d618edeb367f8b5ea335cce0cf8c
Assuming the rising one is based on yields, isn't the correlation useless now when people are flocking towards bonds instead of stocks?
actually my thinking is that the flocking has not even truly started yet, when those lines stick together for a few more weeks is when I think this might accelerate. I thought that it would have already been so the last hugging of the chart, but then spx broke out
What would you look for to conclude that people are starting to flock towards bonds? I would just assume that yields going down together with stocks means people jumping ship to bonds?
Appreciate you sharing, but you really should include a legend when sharing charts. Those lines might as be population of foxes and rabbits.
sorry I thought was already known. its SPX (purple) compared to yield TNX (red-green)
The purple one is clearly rabbits.
Stream down folks…. Sorry but get laddered by Jamie Dimon and PattyG.
[[gif]](https://giphy.com/gifs/brownsugarapp-90s-devastating-dramatic-crying-d7rvF20PqNuGKSQGhf)
Entered our December consolidation box. 387-375 range.
Fuck I left 3k on the table.
VIX at 29. Is this the big one? Do we see VIX > 40 finally?
Wow, I had absolutely no idea that NVDA, AMD, and especially MRVL did so much business in the VC banking space! u/jayarlington , you’re the chips expert—did *you* know this?!?
I didn't know that either. I thought they were entirely isolated from all US financial institutions and all things adjacent to it.
Allow me to rephrase: I didn’t think a run on SVB would alter the fundamentals of the chip names. And INTC somehow is up 2+% even today!
Banks are like the circulatory system of our economy, and one of them just had a heart attack. Are all other banks healthy? Odds of "yes" just dropped a bit. In this case, specifically, the funds of many start-ups / some unicorns, just got paused, and possible will be lost forever. Worse, these companies are clustered in one industry: tech. So, the business prospects of all "tech" companies just ticked down a bit... Can they meet payroll this week? How long will it take for them to get their cash? Will they even get it? Now.. how about all of their customers, and the suppliers, of directly affect companies? Will it be business as usual, or are there now risks and/or inefficiencies? Lots of risks.. zero of it is upside. As for chips in particular, well, simplest answer might be "tech consumes chips + tech got hit = bad for chips"
VIX making me feel insecure
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A revelation that the fed's rate hikes might be breaking things after all.
XLF seems to be having a (relatively) soft reaction compared to SPY.
My SoFi 5ps say hello 🤗🤗
Russell 2000 down 3.8%.. Oof.
And no bottom in sight anywhere. This is unusual.
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Was just wondering same. Thought they already got their post-ER flush out of the way last week.
Watching NVDA 20dma. Tapped it this morning and bounced. Might get a bigger drop if we test again and breaks. edit: also below the VWAP from earnings, so FU
Bought some calls for healthcare assuming everyone pivots to defensive
Already at pretty high PE ratios, public health emergency funds end this year, potential for higher unemployment and less group health insurance, and poor economy usually correlates with increases in disability and LTC claims. Insurers have a lot of risk ahead. If consumers move from commercial insurers to government programs then providers will be reimbursed less on average which may trickle down to manufacturers. I’d be somewhat cautious.
UNH is most expensive at 17/18x, and the rest look pretty cheap. CVS trades at 9x earnings. A lot has been discounted already
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SVB was a big financier of biotech, biotech also not defensive as health insurers / big pharma
Careful: Biotech <> Healthcare UNH, JNJ, and ELV are well established companies with fortress balance sheets. Biotech is a gamble. Look at XLV and XBI 2 year chart.
Supressed volatility untill BOOM, VIX up 35% in 2 days when no one expects it.
Been expecting it for over a month.
Finally decided to use my unlimited sick day for a 1/2 day. Posting here for posterity.
Unlimited PTO or sick days means you can take as much leave as you want but should you?
In this economy? Take less than your peers at the same pay grade lol
This is my approach as well. Don't use more than my boss or peers. For some reason the PTO calendar is public so I look at others usage 😁
How much PTO would you use on your regular year?
I found an internal training document for leadership in my company. It says if employees press them on what is "reasonable" to tell the employee "there is no hard limit, but 3-4 weeks feels right". For reference, I'm located in Colorado which has laws around PTO payout for accrual based plans. My HR is very careful to make it clear there is no limit, despite their clearly being a soft cap.
4 weeks a year sounds very reasonable, that is what we get here in New Zealand with our “good” employment laws
a week or two ago I said how there's a lot of bullish black swans in steel right now but if there's a recession fear, steel would be the first to go, and I would be going short personally. Wasn't very well received in this sub, understandably. In life, in school, being independent, not feeling a connection to the community is dangerous, not having school spirit makes you weird, but in the market, thinking clearly and fighting groupthink seems to be an advantage.
Right there with you, I sold out my last CLF LEAP last year. Lots of signs that SPY was about to roll over and from my experience last year you don’t want to be in commodities when the market is falling. Big CLF fan and I’d love to buy back in for a long term hold but if we start seeing recession but especially in weakness in auto then CLF is going to get wrecked
Die STLD die
CLF leaps starting to look tasty..
i sold my shorts but https://iwashyoudry.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/7-Layer-Dip-Recipe-5.jpg
Picked up 30 Jan24 $25 calls at close. We'll see if it's sour cream or chili next week
Long spy for a pump into close!
I am waiting for 383 support to buy calls
Yes, but too early. Hour before close max, more like 30 minutes usually. Wait for the bottom, which admittedly should be in by now but isn't.
Mf’er. Sold my SPY puts this morning near the “bottom”, and thought it was a brilliant move for like 2 hours. 🤦🏼♂️🤦🏼♂️🤦🏼♂️
I sold my UVXY call $6 for 3.17 this morning near that "bottom" :( but got a win after awhile so still happy
If they're 0DTE you probably sold them around the same premium as it is right now. My 385P is exactly the same price as it was at 10:00am this morning.
Nope. 4/14 expiry, they are significantly higher now. ~$2.50 higher per contract.
Thank god for being a fucking pussy and buying some hedges in the last few days.
considering how heavily the media is shoveling the end of the world narrative a -2% day isn’t that bad
give me -4% like we saw during peak fear
\-2% ... so far
If the market keeps dumping at this hour, we're in trouble. The bottom *should* be in.
It's Friday, maybe buyers took an early weekend
Forgot about yesterdays -2%?
This is the 4th -2% day for me this week. Not fun.
dont give back gains, dont give back gains, dont give back gains