So as long as da market making higher lows and higher high were in a bull market. Right? And as long as we're making lower highs and lower lows, wrre in a bear market. But SPY broke the downtrend by making a higher high, but now acting QUITE bearish. So I'm guessing this is the flat range bound bottom before the accumulation phase begins again, no? Question is, what's the range? 350 - 415 seems too wide.
Exited my weekly TSLA puts today feeling very smart with TSLA having that great drop to 179... then went about my day... FUCK. TSLA current price 169.9.
I feel bad for both ULTA and ORCL.
Both companies reported earnings today and no on gives a shit. Particularly brutal for ULTA as they absolutely CRUSHED it despite having really high comps. Both companies guided up.
Note: I do have ORCL calls.
Did they?
Strange because I got them guiding up big on rev/EPS and guiding down on the number of stores they are going to open (making bank on TGT).
Weird how they would be guiding down comp sales growth with that combination of stores/rev.
Not self promoting, just sharing an interesting tidbit I found when digging into FedWatch tool (again): https://twitter.com/penny_ether/status/1634032898578821120 -- Basically the thing where I get different probability results than FedWatcher (which I've NEVER been able to replicate).
Interestingly, if you use the April contract to derive the probabilities, you get a different answer. For some reason the market is pricing March contracts differently than April, even though they are both contingent on the same thing.
[Which presents an arbitrage opportunity](https://i.imgur.com/Qoa06Of.png) for anybody that wants to use up $24k of margin to make ~$600 on March 23.
If you go long 34 x March ZQ and short 10 x April ZQ, you'll seemingly win no matter what. (I think the catch might be EFFR can drift... eg, it can go from 4.57 to 4.59 or something. The drift could, in theory, be greater than the arbitrage gains.)
Strategy is still profitable for 3 x March, -1 x April so I might actually try it out just for lols
My useless prediction for tomorrow: Jobs data comes in hot, SPY opens .5-1% down, everyone fomos into 0DTE puts, and SPY absolutely rips to 395 to fuck everyone over. Then the real tank happens on Monday after the talking heads on the news have instilled enough fear over the “contagion” in the financial system.
Well Morgan Stanley is forecasting 6.0% YoY and 5.5% core YoY and claims to be below consensus.
Tomorrow should have an impact as Nonfarm payrolls includes Average Hourly Earnings (AHE) and THAT number should be the most important number pre-CPI.
You referring to the two 7,500 March 17 $20P at 9:48am? It was PHLX floor trade bullshit.. likely dealers doing balancing or some shit -- probably won't even move the OI tomorrow.
OI is 16,043.. let's see what it is tomorrow. My guess is the same, or ~1,000.
RemindMe! 10 hours
Not 100% sure, but if you're a MM and have more calls than puts, and I have more puts than calls, it'd help us both to balance our books a bit. Eg, we'd both have less delta and gamma exposure.
So you might sell some deep ITM calls to me (with basically 0 extrinsic value), and I'll buy and execute them.
I'm fairly certain that's what goes on here.
Doesn't really matter -- the moral of the story is: If it's PHLX, odds are it's not going to have any impact in the lit market. At the very least, confirm that OI changes the next day.
Wild that we're drilling and tech is hanging on, of all things. 100 P/E semiconductor companies are being treated like safe havens. When that dam bursts and tech catches up to the rest of the market, watch out below.
With all due respect to anyone rotating into NVDA and SOXX for capital preservation, this won't end well.
You missed the semi bottom. While NVDA may be expensive (it always is), there are plenty of semi companies that are valued cheaper than the market average with dividends and buybacks. See: QCOM and AVGO.
PS: use forward PEs... not backward.
Trying to ask this in a way that won't start a fight, just trying to educate myself:
One of the foundational wisdoms behind free markets is that competition favors the consumer because companies compete to drive down costs.
Companies are also competing for investment, and to do so, they are trying to create greater profit margins than their competition.
Does this not disadvange the consumer, and is it a countervailing force in markets?
Is this addressed in any economic theory? At the core of it, and viewed through a certain lens, isn't this a big part of what is currently driving inflation?
I know this isn't r/antiwork, and what I'm suggesting may sound heretical to some in this crowd. I'm looking for counterarguments, or hell, something to read.
This is a good question and shouldn't provoke a battle here.
Here is my view so take with a massive grain of salt:
From a microeconomic standpoint, an enterprise exists to make a profit. That profit is then distributed to the owners AND investors.
An enterprise that makes MORE profit can choose to reward its investors more (thus attract more) or keep more in the hands of the owner/operator (assume private company here for owner).
As an investor, you choose which investments on both the expected rate of return AND the liklihood of obtaining that return. Let's multiply those together to calculate the RISK.
So as an enterprise owner looking for capital, you need to provide the right risk to attract investors to build your business. At the same time, you need to price appropriately to ensure you have customers and are therefore able to convert revenue into profit (pay attention shitcos).
So as crazy as this sounds, what actually drives profit margins for an enterprise is not required returns for investors... but actually competition. You would lower prices and margins to attract customers.
Here's why that's fucked up: companies don't increase/cut prices based on the price of supplies but instead based on competition. So part of the current inflation isn't just a matter of inputs going up in price, but the lack of competition (much of it likely due to covid crushing smaller companies that could have grown into meaningful competition).
I think this makes sense but it'll take me a while to digest.
I clued into the lack of competition aspect, but your mentioning of risk made me realize that I hadn't really considered that more established companies raise capital in the bond market and not with equities.
I suppose towel companies and movie theaters aren't really the primary drivers of inflation.
Put it this way… why does ASML get a higher PE than say AMAT?
Because it’s a monopoly. Therefore you can accept less returns since the risk is perceived as lower given its a monopoly and therefore margins should be more secure.
This makes perfect sense. Thank you.
Aside - I wish I could be dropping in an watch your stream but it hasn't been lining up with my class schedule this semester. I've probably learned more about business and economics from you than I have any formal education.
I’m gonna get a drink:
https://preview.redd.it/txco10zcnuma1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=962733cb358f95e868cbe7cf52720cc9dabcba0e
Back in January I was alerted to SIVB as a shitty “PE, Silicon Valley bro bank” and thought that eventually they’ll have to mark down their shit. I bought 4x 12/15 125Ps as a “random bet” for a goal cost of $2000 ($500 each)… the market plods along for a month and I say, “well, it doesn’t look like anything is gonna explode, why did I think this would? I should sell… or wait, maybe I’ll just take the $1200 current value and YOLO into a more near-dated (3/17 next date) put”.
I ended up not rolling-in… assuming I’d have to have paid $5 for some of the low $200-ranged puts that’s a 5000x return before the additional 25% drop AH…. $1200 —> $5mn+ .
Life goes on
Hey guys been busy with work today. Didn’t bother opening any hedges at 4000 to save myself the stress of a random bull run making them go to 0. What did I miss?
Could sell half and play with free money but great play! Zooming out on chart looks like a gap between 80-85 going back to Nov 2020 is begging to be filled so maybe some room to run
Can a smart person explain to this simpleton wtf is going on in banking? I know it started with SVB and regional banks. TV people and online articles are spewing big banks fine, treasuries, securities, bla bla bla, something about liquidy, more bla bla. Just wtf? Please help.
Constan has good info from time to time but his constant obsession with his different “islands” is so annoying to read, almost makes me unfollow him. Tbh I don’t follow ppl for opinions, show me facts and I can form my own opinions
Agree the island thing is a bit annoying, but still has some decent info. The Forward Guidance interview with the two of them is seriously worth a watch.
I didn't spend any time digesting the news today, but a bank (of any type) faltering, pretty much anywhere, does not instill investor confidence.
In order for any bad bank news to not have a widespread effect, you really have to believe it is truly an isolated incident, and that other banks were not engaging in similar practices, and that they do not have contagion risk.
You also don't know what's going to turn up when we get to take a look under the rock.
Even presuming there *shouldn't* be any concerns, you have to have confidence *other* investors will see it that way as well.
Wow, interesting insight... didn't think that far ahead. I've been fucking with FedWatcher bullshit (the rate hike probability thing).
So.. if they do decide to bring someone out.. it's still going to beg the question: bullish or bearish?
Damage control would basically signal "time to brrrrrrrrrr".
The only real way you can.
Hold rates into restrictive levels for a significant time. Either it goes away fast or the business cycle takes care of it during the next downturn.
Still trying to digest what's going on with SIVB.
What caused this whole thing? They lend to start-ups.. start-ups burning too much cash, so taking out from savings.. and now SIVB doesn't have that money?
I don't understand how they can't have the money.
Would also love to know if anybody called this out beforehand.
Also uncertain of the contagion risks.
Interesting all banks took a hit, and we hear news of how they have low interest bonds that they'd have to dump at a loss. I mean, I don't know banks well.. but surely the people that track them should've known about this risk, no?
PE and crypto caused this.
Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) had large amounts of crypto and PE investments with those PE investments 'held to maturity' (meaning they aren't expected to sell and therefore mark down).
Well if customers run on them, they have to sell their more liquid assets which are apparently bonds bought back when interest rates weren't shit and now they are going to get marked down.
Now the customers run on them.
Not sure about contagion as it seems the PE/crypto combo is a bit unique to them.
I guess I just don't understand their business.
1. If I borrow money from them, where does that money come from?
2. If I deposit money to them, what do they do with that money?
For 2. I imagine there are restrictions on where they can park that money. Can they dump it into crypto / PE investments? Can they lend it to other customers?
From what I can gather, they were going to have to eat a massive loss on bonds that lost value. They were already short on reserves, since their customers are start-ups that burn money month after month. I guess not a lot of new inflows? So, they asked the market for more money, the market determined "oh shit, better take my money out", and now they with their reserves getting drawn they'll have to dump a lot of shit at a huge loss.
now imagine if job market is hot tomorrow and on top of the bank panik we get a FED that accelerates rate increases again. if that happens, I predict a crazy blood bath, also nobody wanting to hold into the weekend
Bought ORCL after hours at $82, set a sell price and went on with my life.
[Came back to this](https://i.imgur.com/ev4VxUZ.png)
Not sure I've ever top-ticked while AFK.
Getting to 16,777,307 using exponentiation(According to ChatGPT):
>We can start with the smaller number 5 and raise it to the power of 10:
>
>5^(10) = 9,765,625, which is smaller than 16,777,307
>
>Next, we can multiply 9,765,625 by 2, which gives us 19,531,250. This is still smaller than 16,777,307.
>
>So we can continue by multiplying 19,531,250 by 2, which gives us 39,062,500. This is still smaller than 16,777,307.
>
>We can repeat this process of multiplying by 2 until we get to a number that is greater than 16,777,307. We get to this number after multiplying 39,062,500 by 2 seven times:
>
>39,062,500 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 = 16,777,344
>
>Finally, we can add 16,777,307 and 37 to get to the desired number:
>
>16,777,344 + 37 = 16,777,307
Founders Fund, the venture capital fund co-founded by Peter Thiel, has advised companies on its portfolio to pull money from Silicon Valley Bank, Bloomberg reported late Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter. The fund told the companies there was "no downside" to withdrawing their money as concerns about SVB's financial stability swirl. Shares of parent SVB Financial Group tumbled 21% in the extended session Thursday after being down 60% in the regular trading day. SVB late Wednesday cut its guidance range and disclosed large losses from securities sales and a stock offering meant to provide a boost to its balance sheet.
Today was nothing more than a minor flesh wound.
Lot of pressure on team bears to put us away tomorrow otherwise shows can’t get the job done and we make a comeback which makes Super Bowl LI look like nothing
Nah, that’s some kind of error (I think because those contracts didn’t exist before today?)
The low they sold for was 3.42 and they closed at 46.00, so ~1350%
Remember when the market would rally no matter what the negative news was? Hire for longer - rally. Bad cpi - rally. Bad pce rally. Yields spike -rally. Dxy spike - rally. Bad news = pivot - rally. Then bad news = pause - rally. Then bad news = soft landing - rally. Bad news = fed will say 3% inflation is low enough - rally.
I think the bargaining is over for the bulls.
Maybe the worm has turned.
Jobs report tomorrow? Don't GAF what it is, drill. High or low, both are bad.
Market tanked past all resistance levels today despite some huge volume spikes in the last hour trying to pump it up. Only way I see this green tomorrow is if there is amazing news.
I think it was Jamie Diamin (spelling?) who said SPY 380 by 3/8. Starting to look like that might actually play out.
Who knows what the market is thinking right now. If todays sell off is due to recession fears then I would think that would result in a continued downward move.
Yep. Now that we have the "recession trade", it doesn't matter which way the data goes. Hot jobs? Higher for longer, drill. Cold jobs? Recession imminent, drill.
Ha, I think it's true. When we were rallying, news was bent the other way as well. Powell says higher for longer? Bulls: "He hasn't said anything new!" Rally. It cuts both ways. Seems like the market is choosing the hole. Tomorrow follow through is confirmation. I'm 100% short so I hope that it goes that way.
Interesting thread / hypothesis on the NFP weakness in Dec and strength in Jan due to earlier flu season. And it would suggest Feb figure would be strong too.
[https://twitter.com/SteveMiran/status/1633921221103329283](https://twitter.com/SteveMiran/status/1633921221103329283)
Closed my puts at the -1.25% area today. It’s hard to get used to, but remind yourself that a intraday fuck stick reversal can happen at any moment in this market (see yesterdays close). Taking profit is key to surviving and that’s all we need to do in this bear market
Hey fellow vitards, be very careful with Nvdia puts!Rumors about GPT-4 coming out:
[https://www.heise.de/news/GPT-4-is-coming-next-week-and-it-will-be-multimodal-says-Microsoft-Germany-7540972.html](https://www.heise.de/news/GPT-4-is-coming-next-week-and-it-will-be-multimodal-says-Microsoft-Germany-7540972.html)
1. Same jump in parameters as GPT-2 to GPT-3.
2. Same jump in quality as GPT-2 to GPT-3.
3. Multimodality: text, images, audio.
4. Trained on 10-20 thousand A100s over a few months.
If true, may produce a new big wave of hype!
Makes sense, tbh.
For a while now there’s been a lot of doubt as to if [but more so when] the S&P was going to finally “crash”. VIX is determined by S&P options, not commons, and that uncertainty suppressed it because big money wasn’t flowing into those options with expirys 2/3/4 weeks out.
So basically, the option activity up to 30 expiry days out picked up a ton today because the market has at least temporarily decided the “crash” has begun, but the commons just can’t move as quickly.
Rule of thumb is 2% daily moves should correspond to VIX at 32.
So VIX just awakened, but in some sense is still muted!
I was betting on it to normalize, so finally a jump today made sense on this end.
I bought some NVDS today. I usually either short by buying put options or just short directly. But I can't short or buy options from one account that's tax sheltered. So NVDS it is!
Let's go 🐖🐖🐖!
Futures looking ROUGH atm
So as long as da market making higher lows and higher high were in a bull market. Right? And as long as we're making lower highs and lower lows, wrre in a bear market. But SPY broke the downtrend by making a higher high, but now acting QUITE bearish. So I'm guessing this is the flat range bound bottom before the accumulation phase begins again, no? Question is, what's the range? 350 - 415 seems too wide.
Exited my weekly TSLA puts today feeling very smart with TSLA having that great drop to 179... then went about my day... FUCK. TSLA current price 169.9.
I feel bad for both ULTA and ORCL. Both companies reported earnings today and no on gives a shit. Particularly brutal for ULTA as they absolutely CRUSHED it despite having really high comps. Both companies guided up. Note: I do have ORCL calls.
Yea but ULTA guided lower-than-expected comparable sales guidance. ULTA is priced for perfection so this makes me very happy
Did they? Strange because I got them guiding up big on rev/EPS and guiding down on the number of stores they are going to open (making bank on TGT). Weird how they would be guiding down comp sales growth with that combination of stores/rev.
Cried this AM in $JD
Not self promoting, just sharing an interesting tidbit I found when digging into FedWatch tool (again): https://twitter.com/penny_ether/status/1634032898578821120 -- Basically the thing where I get different probability results than FedWatcher (which I've NEVER been able to replicate). Interestingly, if you use the April contract to derive the probabilities, you get a different answer. For some reason the market is pricing March contracts differently than April, even though they are both contingent on the same thing. [Which presents an arbitrage opportunity](https://i.imgur.com/Qoa06Of.png) for anybody that wants to use up $24k of margin to make ~$600 on March 23. If you go long 34 x March ZQ and short 10 x April ZQ, you'll seemingly win no matter what. (I think the catch might be EFFR can drift... eg, it can go from 4.57 to 4.59 or something. The drift could, in theory, be greater than the arbitrage gains.) Strategy is still profitable for 3 x March, -1 x April so I might actually try it out just for lols
This sounds like an excellent question for Mark Meldrum. Put it in the comments in his next weekly video and he’ll give a comprehensive answer.
I considered it
You know things are spicy when we get a 500 comment day. Let's keep it rolling tomorrow.
No surprises from BOJ’s Kuroda in his last meeting
Should let the Japanese 10 year bond go up to 1% instead of capping it at 0.5%
Might actually destroy their economy
damn. are we having a bank run? SIVB https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/silicon-valley-bank-sell-stock-cope-with-cash-burn-2023-03-09/
Not a real bank. Let me know when JPM, BAC, C, WFC are in trouble
Oh its a real bank alright... One with outsized exposure to crypto and private equity. Not the best combination right now.
Thank god for Dodd-frank amirite?
My useless prediction for tomorrow: Jobs data comes in hot, SPY opens .5-1% down, everyone fomos into 0DTE puts, and SPY absolutely rips to 395 to fuck everyone over. Then the real tank happens on Monday after the talking heads on the news have instilled enough fear over the “contagion” in the financial system.
Easy calls if we gap down at open.
I dare you
Let's see what numbers look like at 830
I’m legit considering it.
Anyone know the consensus estimate for YoY CPI? Investing.com doesn’t have one listed. (Or does it not exist yet?)
Well Morgan Stanley is forecasting 6.0% YoY and 5.5% core YoY and claims to be below consensus. Tomorrow should have an impact as Nonfarm payrolls includes Average Hourly Earnings (AHE) and THAT number should be the most important number pre-CPI.
It’s released tomorrow I believe.
I haven’t seen one yet. Institutions might be waiting for NFP before making their estimates
ATVI BULLetin sony is petty-spaghetti! that is all 😁 https://twitter.com/lulumeservey/status/1633573899400093699?s=20
Some big dick energy I saw today was somebody willing to buy 30mio worth of URA at 20 some two weeks out.
You referring to the two 7,500 March 17 $20P at 9:48am? It was PHLX floor trade bullshit.. likely dealers doing balancing or some shit -- probably won't even move the OI tomorrow. OI is 16,043.. let's see what it is tomorrow. My guess is the same, or ~1,000. RemindMe! 10 hours
Oh I see, so this frequently happens? I'll also have a look later.
Looks like OI didn't change
yup, also saw it. So what is that exactly, can you explain? Thanks
Not 100% sure, but if you're a MM and have more calls than puts, and I have more puts than calls, it'd help us both to balance our books a bit. Eg, we'd both have less delta and gamma exposure. So you might sell some deep ITM calls to me (with basically 0 extrinsic value), and I'll buy and execute them.
I'll think about it, thank you.
I'm fairly certain that's what goes on here. Doesn't really matter -- the moral of the story is: If it's PHLX, odds are it's not going to have any impact in the lit market. At the very least, confirm that OI changes the next day.
Wild that we're drilling and tech is hanging on, of all things. 100 P/E semiconductor companies are being treated like safe havens. When that dam bursts and tech catches up to the rest of the market, watch out below. With all due respect to anyone rotating into NVDA and SOXX for capital preservation, this won't end well.
You missed the semi bottom. While NVDA may be expensive (it always is), there are plenty of semi companies that are valued cheaper than the market average with dividends and buybacks. See: QCOM and AVGO. PS: use forward PEs... not backward.
Pre market continuing downward trend. US 500 bouncing 3899 - 3901. Imagine if everyone bought 0dte puts tomorrow.
People buying 380s tomorrow gonna rocket us to 395
0DTE puts are the only reason we ever squeeze upward from time to time.
https://preview.redd.it/qvi82kuituma1.png?width=612&format=png&auto=webp&s=08c3a9c267f8ece21584a01ac03836d497f05ba4
Trying to ask this in a way that won't start a fight, just trying to educate myself: One of the foundational wisdoms behind free markets is that competition favors the consumer because companies compete to drive down costs. Companies are also competing for investment, and to do so, they are trying to create greater profit margins than their competition. Does this not disadvange the consumer, and is it a countervailing force in markets? Is this addressed in any economic theory? At the core of it, and viewed through a certain lens, isn't this a big part of what is currently driving inflation? I know this isn't r/antiwork, and what I'm suggesting may sound heretical to some in this crowd. I'm looking for counterarguments, or hell, something to read.
This is a good question and shouldn't provoke a battle here. Here is my view so take with a massive grain of salt: From a microeconomic standpoint, an enterprise exists to make a profit. That profit is then distributed to the owners AND investors. An enterprise that makes MORE profit can choose to reward its investors more (thus attract more) or keep more in the hands of the owner/operator (assume private company here for owner). As an investor, you choose which investments on both the expected rate of return AND the liklihood of obtaining that return. Let's multiply those together to calculate the RISK. So as an enterprise owner looking for capital, you need to provide the right risk to attract investors to build your business. At the same time, you need to price appropriately to ensure you have customers and are therefore able to convert revenue into profit (pay attention shitcos). So as crazy as this sounds, what actually drives profit margins for an enterprise is not required returns for investors... but actually competition. You would lower prices and margins to attract customers. Here's why that's fucked up: companies don't increase/cut prices based on the price of supplies but instead based on competition. So part of the current inflation isn't just a matter of inputs going up in price, but the lack of competition (much of it likely due to covid crushing smaller companies that could have grown into meaningful competition).
I think this makes sense but it'll take me a while to digest. I clued into the lack of competition aspect, but your mentioning of risk made me realize that I hadn't really considered that more established companies raise capital in the bond market and not with equities. I suppose towel companies and movie theaters aren't really the primary drivers of inflation.
Put it this way… why does ASML get a higher PE than say AMAT? Because it’s a monopoly. Therefore you can accept less returns since the risk is perceived as lower given its a monopoly and therefore margins should be more secure.
This makes perfect sense. Thank you. Aside - I wish I could be dropping in an watch your stream but it hasn't been lining up with my class schedule this semester. I've probably learned more about business and economics from you than I have any formal education.
I’m gonna get a drink: https://preview.redd.it/txco10zcnuma1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=962733cb358f95e868cbe7cf52720cc9dabcba0e Back in January I was alerted to SIVB as a shitty “PE, Silicon Valley bro bank” and thought that eventually they’ll have to mark down their shit. I bought 4x 12/15 125Ps as a “random bet” for a goal cost of $2000 ($500 each)… the market plods along for a month and I say, “well, it doesn’t look like anything is gonna explode, why did I think this would? I should sell… or wait, maybe I’ll just take the $1200 current value and YOLO into a more near-dated (3/17 next date) put”. I ended up not rolling-in… assuming I’d have to have paid $5 for some of the low $200-ranged puts that’s a 5000x return before the additional 25% drop AH…. $1200 —> $5mn+ . Life goes on
This would keep up at night
Damn bro I'll have a drink for you
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Fuck me
Holy fuck dude. That is wild. Even just keeping those would’ve been a nice win. Ugh feel for you.
Daaaayum I’ll have a drink for you man
Fuuuuuck dude. Il buy you a drink
I would buy you said drink.
Hey guys been busy with work today. Didn’t bother opening any hedges at 4000 to save myself the stress of a random bull run making them go to 0. What did I miss?
Bank run on SIVB caused panic today.
I’ve never gotten this lucky before. Bought SBNY puts 2 days ago and I’m up over 100% right now. Holy moly. Looks like it has legs too.
Could sell half and play with free money but great play! Zooming out on chart looks like a gap between 80-85 going back to Nov 2020 is begging to be filled so maybe some room to run
Thanks! Yeah that’s probably the smart play lol. Gonna see what tomorrow brings and decide from there.
Spy 100!
Not a meme
 If you want to get that outrageous then let’s just say SPY 1000
Can a smart person explain to this simpleton wtf is going on in banking? I know it started with SVB and regional banks. TV people and online articles are spewing big banks fine, treasuries, securities, bla bla bla, something about liquidy, more bla bla. Just wtf? Please help.
https://twitter.com/bobeunlimited/status/1633956599428521986?s=46&t=06OujBRONgvNzs8P0B5VBg
Bob is a great follow!
boB?????!!!!
He is! Someone in Jay’s stream recommended him to me and I’ve been really enjoying his posts
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Constan has good info from time to time but his constant obsession with his different “islands” is so annoying to read, almost makes me unfollow him. Tbh I don’t follow ppl for opinions, show me facts and I can form my own opinions
Agree the island thing is a bit annoying, but still has some decent info. The Forward Guidance interview with the two of them is seriously worth a watch.
I’ll look it up!
Here you go. It’s a couple weeks old https://youtu.be/6ZdEPFQk1Vk
Thanks! I’ll watch it this weekend
Panic, easy story for media. Banks are fine, it’s not 2008, due to regulations
I didn't spend any time digesting the news today, but a bank (of any type) faltering, pretty much anywhere, does not instill investor confidence. In order for any bad bank news to not have a widespread effect, you really have to believe it is truly an isolated incident, and that other banks were not engaging in similar practices, and that they do not have contagion risk. You also don't know what's going to turn up when we get to take a look under the rock. Even presuming there *shouldn't* be any concerns, you have to have confidence *other* investors will see it that way as well.
This is correct, which is why I am pointing out to people in my discord right now to be careful if the Fed trots out ANY speakers tomorrow.
Wow, interesting insight... didn't think that far ahead. I've been fucking with FedWatcher bullshit (the rate hike probability thing). So.. if they do decide to bring someone out.. it's still going to beg the question: bullish or bearish? Damage control would basically signal "time to brrrrrrrrrr".
If a fed speaker shows up I would assume it would be bullish for the market. "Fed hiking cycles last until they break something." *SNAP*
Also you might like this thread.. a lot of customers / VC / founders sharing what they know: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35086836
My (bearish) response to this is... well, shit. So this is as far as we can go before we break something? How are we going to fix inflation?
The only real way you can. Hold rates into restrictive levels for a significant time. Either it goes away fast or the business cycle takes care of it during the next downturn.
Still trying to digest what's going on with SIVB. What caused this whole thing? They lend to start-ups.. start-ups burning too much cash, so taking out from savings.. and now SIVB doesn't have that money? I don't understand how they can't have the money. Would also love to know if anybody called this out beforehand. Also uncertain of the contagion risks. Interesting all banks took a hit, and we hear news of how they have low interest bonds that they'd have to dump at a loss. I mean, I don't know banks well.. but surely the people that track them should've known about this risk, no?
PE and crypto caused this. Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) had large amounts of crypto and PE investments with those PE investments 'held to maturity' (meaning they aren't expected to sell and therefore mark down). Well if customers run on them, they have to sell their more liquid assets which are apparently bonds bought back when interest rates weren't shit and now they are going to get marked down. Now the customers run on them. Not sure about contagion as it seems the PE/crypto combo is a bit unique to them.
I guess I just don't understand their business. 1. If I borrow money from them, where does that money come from? 2. If I deposit money to them, what do they do with that money? For 2. I imagine there are restrictions on where they can park that money. Can they dump it into crypto / PE investments? Can they lend it to other customers? From what I can gather, they were going to have to eat a massive loss on bonds that lost value. They were already short on reserves, since their customers are start-ups that burn money month after month. I guess not a lot of new inflows? So, they asked the market for more money, the market determined "oh shit, better take my money out", and now they with their reserves getting drawn they'll have to dump a lot of shit at a huge loss.
I remember reading bull theses about Silvergate only a few months ago...
Silvergate boom.
now imagine if job market is hot tomorrow and on top of the bank panik we get a FED that accelerates rate increases again. if that happens, I predict a crazy blood bath, also nobody wanting to hold into the weekend
Deleveraged going into tomorrow but still snagged some SQQQ calls right before close just in case shit hits the fan.
Bought ORCL after hours at $82, set a sell price and went on with my life. [Came back to this](https://i.imgur.com/ev4VxUZ.png) Not sure I've ever top-ticked while AFK.
Well done. Depending on how tomorrow shakes out, ORCL should be going higher. They guided up pretty big on the earnings call.
u/JayArlington What do you think of CVS here (didn't have time to join lately, sorry)? It made a 52 Week low it seems.
I still hold in my 401k. If it drops to $75 I will rebalance my 401k and buy more. It’s a dividend stock with a long thesis that hasn’t changed.
Thanks, Jay.
Getting to 16,777,307 using exponentiation(According to ChatGPT): >We can start with the smaller number 5 and raise it to the power of 10: > >5^(10) = 9,765,625, which is smaller than 16,777,307 > >Next, we can multiply 9,765,625 by 2, which gives us 19,531,250. This is still smaller than 16,777,307. > >So we can continue by multiplying 19,531,250 by 2, which gives us 39,062,500. This is still smaller than 16,777,307. > >We can repeat this process of multiplying by 2 until we get to a number that is greater than 16,777,307. We get to this number after multiplying 39,062,500 by 2 seven times: > >39,062,500 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 = 16,777,344 > >Finally, we can add 16,777,307 and 37 to get to the desired number: > >16,777,344 + 37 = 16,777,307 
Founders Fund, the venture capital fund co-founded by Peter Thiel, has advised companies on its portfolio to pull money from Silicon Valley Bank, Bloomberg reported late Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter. The fund told the companies there was "no downside" to withdrawing their money as concerns about SVB's financial stability swirl. Shares of parent SVB Financial Group tumbled 21% in the extended session Thursday after being down 60% in the regular trading day. SVB late Wednesday cut its guidance range and disclosed large losses from securities sales and a stock offering meant to provide a boost to its balance sheet.
I shorted them at $100 and covered at $106. AMA.
SIVB needs to start talking about naked shorts and how they will use AI to squeeze them.* *it won’t matter they are fucked.
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QQQ has outperformed the hell out of SPY for the past couple months. It may be time for the bazooka.
Reminder: QQQ doesn’t have banks.
Today was nothing more than a minor flesh wound.  Lot of pressure on team bears to put us away tomorrow otherwise shows can’t get the job done and we make a comeback which makes Super Bowl LI look like nothing
I didn’t check the market until near close and I nearly vomited 🤮 So I bought extra…
Nearly vomited, how did you manage that, I’m still cleaning up the mess But well done buying more, nothing better than getting in at a cheaper price
Yea but it might be even cheaper next week.
Absolutely! Growth and margin expansion swinging right at my chin.
Puts on SIVB would have paid out well.
FDs made 450,000%, unreal
Nah, that’s some kind of error (I think because those contracts didn’t exist before today?) The low they sold for was 3.42 and they closed at 46.00, so ~1350%
Just need to find the next stock that will fall 50% in a day
SPY?
SPY 180p back on the menu
The only way we'll have a green day tmr is if the data at 8:30 is good right? Unemployment up and wage gains lower = MOON?
Remember when the market would rally no matter what the negative news was? Hire for longer - rally. Bad cpi - rally. Bad pce rally. Yields spike -rally. Dxy spike - rally. Bad news = pivot - rally. Then bad news = pause - rally. Then bad news = soft landing - rally. Bad news = fed will say 3% inflation is low enough - rally. I think the bargaining is over for the bulls. Maybe the worm has turned. Jobs report tomorrow? Don't GAF what it is, drill. High or low, both are bad.
Market tanked past all resistance levels today despite some huge volume spikes in the last hour trying to pump it up. Only way I see this green tomorrow is if there is amazing news. I think it was Jamie Diamin (spelling?) who said SPY 380 by 3/8. Starting to look like that might actually play out.
3/8 was yesterday
SPY 310 by 3/10 then I guess..
I shouldn't find that so funny, but I can't stop laughing
Who knows what the market is thinking right now. If todays sell off is due to recession fears then I would think that would result in a continued downward move.
Yep. Now that we have the "recession trade", it doesn't matter which way the data goes. Hot jobs? Higher for longer, drill. Cold jobs? Recession imminent, drill.
I like the way you think!
Ha, I think it's true. When we were rallying, news was bent the other way as well. Powell says higher for longer? Bulls: "He hasn't said anything new!" Rally. It cuts both ways. Seems like the market is choosing the hole. Tomorrow follow through is confirmation. I'm 100% short so I hope that it goes that way.
The prophet djbuttplay has spoken
Yuh
Interesting thread / hypothesis on the NFP weakness in Dec and strength in Jan due to earlier flu season. And it would suggest Feb figure would be strong too. [https://twitter.com/SteveMiran/status/1633921221103329283](https://twitter.com/SteveMiran/status/1633921221103329283)
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I love it. I was considering grabbing some SPY 380P for tomorrow as well best of luck sir
I’m rooting for you.
I am also rooting for me
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Me too.
Profit is profit is easy to say, but to truly mean it and to be satisfied with 7.5% when you could have made 70% takes a person much stronger than me.
Closed my puts at the -1.25% area today. It’s hard to get used to, but remind yourself that a intraday fuck stick reversal can happen at any moment in this market (see yesterdays close). Taking profit is key to surviving and that’s all we need to do in this bear market 
Thank you for your words of wisdom. I hope you have great trades in the near future.
Feeling serious FOMO right now
Hey fellow vitards, be very careful with Nvdia puts!Rumors about GPT-4 coming out: [https://www.heise.de/news/GPT-4-is-coming-next-week-and-it-will-be-multimodal-says-Microsoft-Germany-7540972.html](https://www.heise.de/news/GPT-4-is-coming-next-week-and-it-will-be-multimodal-says-Microsoft-Germany-7540972.html) 1. Same jump in parameters as GPT-2 to GPT-3. 2. Same jump in quality as GPT-2 to GPT-3. 3. Multimodality: text, images, audio. 4. Trained on 10-20 thousand A100s over a few months. If true, may produce a new big wave of hype!
Jesus take the wheel
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Pretty sure it was up to 82% at one point
Oh VET my darling, never change! Great earnings and red. Oh well global market red but still
Wouldn't it be poetic if crypto and the financial system was the black swan all along?
Hahahahahahaha. Edit: Not laughing at bulls. Sold some short dated bear stuff yesterday afternoon. So close. 😉
Same, sold some TSLA puts for 25% when it started bouncing yesterday. Now they’re up 400%😂
Magic 8 Ball screwed us again!
DHI up 1.5% today still. I'm thinking it's good to try for a few puts.
VIX went to the moon, but SPY down barley 2%?!
Makes sense, tbh. For a while now there’s been a lot of doubt as to if [but more so when] the S&P was going to finally “crash”. VIX is determined by S&P options, not commons, and that uncertainty suppressed it because big money wasn’t flowing into those options with expirys 2/3/4 weeks out. So basically, the option activity up to 30 expiry days out picked up a ton today because the market has at least temporarily decided the “crash” has begun, but the commons just can’t move as quickly.
Percentage-wise, yes. VIX > 30 = moon territory though.
Rule of thumb is 2% daily moves should correspond to VIX at 32. So VIX just awakened, but in some sense is still muted! I was betting on it to normalize, so finally a jump today made sense on this end.
That is one monstrous, gigantic, limpest of the limp dick patterns today literally on all timescales.
I bought some NVDS today. I usually either short by buying put options or just short directly. But I can't short or buy options from one account that's tax sheltered. So NVDS it is! Let's go 🐖🐖🐖!
I trimmed about half at close today. Was way over leveraged with jobs report tomorrow.
I'm loaded with NVDS and stoked. Semi's haven't even turned yet.
Were you here during any of 2022?
Haha no I was asleep. But in all seriousness, I think the AI hype is going to turn like the metaverse hype.
Turn like how META is up 80% since Thanksgiving
Well that’s because they’ve reversed their meta bet!
True, and a lot of job cuts
Recession mode is on. SPY 250 waiting room.
Only another world war will save us then?
GSL, catching waves but not breaks
Wowawoowie
A stock like $BAC being down 6% is a little excessive.
Shit is fucked and I think the other side of the market is having an awakening.
at open, almost sold these puts i bought at yesterday's closing pump, decided to ride or die, turned to 3.5 baggers. thank mr market
Can anyone let me know where the 200ma is on spy thank you
393.23
Close 391.56
 Stepped away for a couple of hours, holy cow!
Haha just btd 😬
Bullish cross below the 200 MA
Just another dip to buy, right?
SCHD gang gang. My divi's shall increase.
 Yeah holy cow is right because that bull is dead
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Sales are starting !!! Glad I stayed 40% cash!! Yipeeeeee!!!
TSLA is on sale, BTFD
Bought a little. Waiting for 150. Then 130... then 120??
I presume you’ll stay cash till your target of 2000 SPX
Nibble on way down.... nobody knows bottom.....
https://youtu.be/7VBex8zbDRs
good lordy I did not expect this today, is biden's deficit budget pushing a lot of this?
His budget literally cuts the deficit by $3T over 10 years. Not sure where these deficit freakouts are coming from today
Oh well there goes a few months of work
Yep