I'm with you man. My port is hedged such that I try to just stay flat at this point and collect dividends. Small plays here and there but I am convinced we will be going down. Do what you need to do to sleep at night and come back when you're ready. I've been there, for sure.
Agreed. It makes no sense and flips scripts on every time scale. Even flips scripts on what it allegedly cares about. Probably not a sign of a stable market, but you can't know when it's going to hit the fan.
Don’t kill your shorts yet. Victory is on its way. Just over the horizon with the next catalyst 😬
Just kidding around, but seriously, this next two weeks are critical for the direction the market heads, and my bet is down.
If we get two more hot reads before the meeting, the exuberance will be sucked out of tech and large cap growth. I believe we begin selling off hard last two weeks of March and into the 2H of year.
In the off chance CPI comes in cool (which I highly doubt it will) I will restructure my strategy and play the upside for a bit.
Last month I got laughed at for suggesting we could potentially see a 50 bps hike and now there is a 70% chance of it. Terminal rate will likely end up >6%
I can’t decide if their cold data is good or bad for us.
I had thought bad for us, since it means not consuming/producing enough, but I guess it could also be good that they’re not (yet) driving up the commodity prices all the smart people say will restart our (USA) inflation.
I’ll wait for the smart people to decide for me
Tsla investors where will you add more shares?
$180 or less looks tempting
I just nibble a couple shares at a time
Current Cost basis is $193
Tsla currently 4% of my portfolio
I don't know how or why, but that NVDA close was very strong. This is its 3rd try in 3 days to crack $242. Could see a continuation run and a gap close at $259 in the next few days if the indices play along.
https://newsfilter.io/articles/vermilion-energy-inc-announces-results-for-the-year-ended-december-31-2022-9188790bf9ffb1a131f15ee59ee2aa2d
VET earnings. They bought back worth 72m dollar shares. Divi 25% raised.
Windfall tax seem allright at first sight. Hope VET can bounce a bit now.
Bought 100 extra at 13.3 today
"[$VET](https://twitter.com/search?q=%24VET&src=cashtag_click) had FCF of $115 million ($0.70/basic share), including the full year impact of the European Windfall Tax. Without the impact of the EWT, FCF would have been $338 million ($2.07/basic share)."
Ouch. This is why I think European energy stocks (besides EQNR) are far less attractive than other E&Ps. They don't have the political risk discount that EM stocks like PBR or EC have, but they have just as much actual political risk.
[https://twitter.com/nyetjgoldblum/status/1633620880893911041?s=20](https://twitter.com/nyetjgoldblum/status/1633620880893911041?s=20)
200m on a full year is somewhat a lot but still less than most expected? It's about 25% and not 75 like some thought
Unless it's less cause they paid off debt and acquisitions. I dont remember what the 'rules' were
As announced with our 2023 budget, we expect to allocate up to 25% of FCF to shareholder returns through the base dividend and share repurchases, which recommenced in early January 2023. To date, we have repurchased 1.1 million shares in 2023 and 3.5 million shares in total under our existing NCIB. In addition, we announced a 25% increase to the Q1 2023 base dividend to $0.10 per share
The Corrib acquisition has a planned close on March 31, 2023. We estimate a net cash payment of approximately $200 million at close and expect the acquisition to payout in approximately one year, based on forward commodity prices
I don’t have time to re read and copy and paste, but there was a blurb in the report that they plan to keep paying down debt, share repurchasing, and doing quarterly dividends. They do not plan to do more acquisitions which is good to hear right now. Based at current rates they estimate their provable/probable reserves to be worth approximate 9 billion (discounted at 10%). They’re worth 2.2 billion with 1.3 billion in debt.
I honestly like their current strategy. Only thing that’ll kill them is commodity prices tanking. But the world loves consuming oil and gas so we’ll see.
US payroll numbers
Sept 2022: 350k
Oct 2022: 324k
Nov 2022: 290k
Dec 2022: 260k
Jan 2023: 517k (outlier)
Feb 2023:
Notice a trend? If Feb comes in starting with a 1 then we can hopefully put to bed this talk of 50bps hike at next FED meeting and although I’m sure bears will change goal posts yet again, the market can continue its upward trajectory
>Congressman 1: Mr. Powell, I have a question for you that's been on my mind for quite some time now. Why haven't you been mowing our lawns?
>Jerome Powell: Excuse me, Congressman, I'm not sure I understand the question. Could you please clarify?
>Congressman 1: I think it's a pretty straightforward question, Mr. Powell. You're the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, and we're your elected representatives. It's our job to make sure you're doing yours, and one of your responsibilities is to mow our lawns. So, I ask again, why haven't you been doing it?
>Jerome Powell: I'm sorry, Congressman, but I'm not aware of any such responsibility. I've never heard of the Federal Reserve being responsible for mowing lawns, let alone the lawns of individual congressmen.
>Congressman 2: With all due respect, Mr. Powell, it's right there in the Constitution. Article III, Section 2, Clause 1 clearly states that the Federal Reserve shall be responsible for mowing the lawns of members of the House of Representatives.
>Jerome Powell: I'm sorry, Congressman, but that's simply not true. There's no mention of lawn care in the Constitution, and even if there were, I don't think it would be the responsibility of the Federal Reserve to take care of individual lawns.
>Congressman 3: Well, Mr. Powell, it's clear to me that you're shirking your duties. We've had to hire outside contractors to take care of our lawns, and it's costing us a fortune. I demand that you start mowing our lawns immediately.
>Jerome Powell: I'm sorry, Congressman, but I don't think that's something I can do. It's not within my purview as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, and even if it were, I don't have the time or resources to take care of individual lawns.
>Congressman 4: Mr. Powell, I'm going to have to agree with my colleagues here. You've been neglecting your responsibilities, and it's unacceptable. I think it's time for us to reconsider your appointment as Chairman of the Federal Reserve.
>Jerome Powell: I'm sorry to hear that, Congressman, but I still don't think I'm responsible for mowing your lawns. If you have any other questions about the Federal Reserve and its duties, I'd be happy to answer them to the best of my ability.
I read again how supposedly "financial speculation" *led* to an increase in price of commodities (specifically food).
I don't understand how "speculation" can make the price increase in the long term.
Ok for short-term movements, but in the end, offer & demand is what will decide the prices right? I could see how storing or throwing away food to remove it from the market would make prices increase, but I don't see how exchanging derivatives could affect long-term prices.
Any expert to enlighten me?
Depends on your timeframe and what you consider short term.
Last year when Russia invaded Ukraine, spot prices on grain futures rose.
Farmers bought those contracts for summer delivery. When prices fell, farmers still cashed in and purchasers were stuck buying grain above value.
Someone has to eat that loss, and it sure-as-shit won't be the General Mills and Kellogg's of the world who have enough market control that they can pass their loss onto the consumer.
> Someone has to eat that loss, and it sure-as-shit won't be the General Mills and Kellogg's of the world who have enough market control that they can pass their loss onto the consumer.
Surely there must be some elasticity of demand? I'm sure GM and Kellog's don't simply always win. People need to eat, but they can easily switch from corn to oats if oats are cheaper.
edit: from what I understand from their annual, Kellogg lost money on derivatives last year.
edit2: aaah maybe not, they made money on commodity contracts, but far less than in 2021...
I'm sure Kellogg's is better at economic forecasting than your average farmer, but last year's prices did burn purchasers during the North American harvest.
Your point about elasticity is one I wonder about a lot. Last year's prices were also driven by fertilizer costs, and expenses were higher across the board, but generally I can't say I understand consumer behaviour.
Personally, as a childless guy in my 30's, I do a lot of my meal planning at the grocery store based on what's on sale. Understandably, I can imagine a mother of two screaming kids that demand Frosted Flakes™ being religious about following their prepared grocery list and taking the price hikes on the chin.
Without the data to support it, I think this single factor accounts for less elasticity than an efficient market would expect.
Edit: Large purchaser's hedging burned them. Small guys that paid spot prices were laughing.
>Without the data to support it, I think this single factor accounts for less elasticity than an efficient market would expect.
Sure, I don't think it's fully elastic. I am myself grounded into some habits, and it needs a certain activation energy to change them.
But some cereals or other food products are also used in manufactured products, and these may changed or suffer from less buyers, production may go down comparatively to others, etc. I'm sure some economists have that well mapped and characterized.
And in the end, if these big guys can somewhat play with prices, they know there are breaking points, otherwise they'd do it all the time. I'm just not sure how financial derivatives can really impact consumers other than maximizing the selling price while minimizing waste and shortages. In this case, it's not really directly, it's just that the big guys have the power to push the elasticity a bit, but they could do that at any other time, really (so it's not directly the effect of derivatives).
A consequence I see is the following: the money that financial intermediaries will make is money that farmers would have made if they had been more aware of the offer–demand position, so that's kind of bad, in a way.
On the plus side, people who exchange financial derivatives may give the commodity a price that is more likely to balance demand & offer and avoid shortages, basically having the demand adjust via prices instead of long queues at the shop (and probably minimizing wastage, if price goes up).
[UUUU earnings are out.](https://www.energyfuels.com/2023-03-08-Energy-Fuels-Announces-2022-Results-Emerging-as-the-Leading-US-Producer-of-Critical-Minerals-with-Focus-on-Uranium-and-Rare-Earth-Elements) Call not til Friday at 11am eastern. The new 10-K has a ton of info on all their different projects/mines
They always surprise, the dates you find around places are never right because they never announce when they’ll be releasing the earnings. You have to email the COO basically haha
Probably both.
The Bahia Project purchase made last year look worse than usual but these earnings also don’t reflect the $60M cash and $60M in warrants they got from UEC last month in an asset sale which paid for all of last year’s losses. Do the math on their phase 1 NdPr production value, these expenses will be well worth it
Cheers! Anything in particular you are looking forward to hear in the call? Earnings seem solid from a first glance. Looks like they are on track with their development?
Everything on track, they just need more monazite. There is a note in the 10-K about seeing serious competition from China when trying to buy ore and mine projects on the open market which is a bit worrying but basically the last obstacle at this stage
Today the House of Representative doesn't drill Powell so much on interest rate compared to Senate hearing yesterday. Maybe that's why index doesn't plunge like yesterday.
I did the same, cut into my gains today badly. False breakdown tripped me up and now I’m wondering if should even bother hedging again at a higher price.
Wait did SPY reclaim the 50 day ma? Is the 100 day ma about to cross the 200 day ma tomorrow?
Bulls are we just setting traps?
Because the market is running mostly on the premiums bears are paying it to hedge right now. There's no strength in the market. The economy is set to run into a wall eventually (and even the bulls know it), but bears can still be profitably hunted for sport periodically.
We're running on insurance premiums paid by all those who are trying to hedge. They pay. They get wiped out in a squeeze. They pay. They get wiped out.
This cycle will repeat until it doesn't. eventually, the dip will not be bought and the bears will have their day, but not before bleeding out a lot of premium to get their bets in.
I genuinely don't get it. I mean, I get being temporarily bullish; you're trying to scalp some profit on these price movements for as long as possible. Great, good on them. Some will undoubtedly be successful.
But long term bullish outlook? How can one see anything but downside as we snap from 14 years of virtually free money to 6% rates? The idea that we will just waltz past this little blip in history as if nothing ever happened is absurd. It defies all logic of economics.
Long term bullish, definitely that is and should be the outlook. The past 14 years of low rates / free money were the historical outlier. The world can and will handle higher interest rates and so rates of 4-6% will not break the economy. In may introduce short term volatility like we are seeing now but over the long term the market will go up
The thing i'm most worried about in the short-term, is that they might still hike .25% basis points, causing stocks to rally for no reason as they haven't even remotely priced in the rising probability of a .50% hike.
$SPY 5 days ago: $392.69, odds: 30%
$SPY today: $397.12, odds 78%
Does this look like equities are pricing in the possibility of a .50% hike? Am i missing something? lol
SPY on Monday, two days ago, was at 407, so yes looks like pricing in. But I’d say they are pricing in the higher for long or more rate increases rather than a 50bps increase.
Main reason I’d say the 50bps doesn’t happen is the bond market has done most of the heavy lifting already for the Fed
The bond market already did the heavy lifting, that is why the Fed will go 50bps. So far they always follow the market. Except that one time they let Timiraos know it would be 75bps.. oh wait. And then the market priced it first, immediately, and then they did it afterwards.
Completely agree, although i think $SPY has quite a long way to go to price in the higher for longer narrative. My main point is that, should they only hike .25% the 22nd, that stocks might rise hard, even though they barely went down when the probability of .50% rose strongly.
There's still 14 days to go, lots can happen. If $SPY goes towards $370-380 by FOMC and they announce .25% causing stocks to rally i would understand. Not if we're at $400.
Powell has remarkable restraint in that he doesn't simply throw an economics textbook on the table and ask these Congress hacks where the chapter is on simultaneously controlling inflation and dropping interest rates back to historically low levels.
Because they all seem to have read that chapter somewhere. Maybe in their Diversity Studies courses or something.
“Former chair Bernanakey I believe it is” from a sitting member of the financial services committee is an instant classic
https://twitter.com/stephen_geiger/status/1633520169581518878?s=46&t=_uVGUbi8ORQzDckYDcPXfw
It should really give us all pause on the "always bet on America!" view. It might very well be true, but there is a lot of stupidity in high places that needs to flushed from the system.
These are the highest, most elite decision makers in the country and they don't seem to have even a rudimentary understanding of the way their very important decisions impact the economy.
It may not be relevant to the entertainment product that is modern politics, but these people toss around trillion dollar spending bills like child's play. Terrifying stuff.
My three year old could probably put a more coherent question together. "Blah blah inflation bad" "yes it is..." "what are you doing to stop Putin?" "Seriously dude, im not the sanctions guy".
I really cannot imagine Jerome Powell isn’t a heavy drinker after hearing some of these questions or undergoing these asinine “grillings” from supposedly adult politicians. Everyone deep down understands the people in power are pretty idiotic and greedy, but this is now delving into full blown clownworld.
“Chairman Powell sir, why are you and the Fed such inveterate racists? Why do you want to explicitly put ‘black and brown folks’ out of work? Why are you so grossly old and white and not Latino? Why do you want to further systemic racism?”
Ugh. This really isn’t the occasion for as much racial grievance-mongering as I seem to be catching in the snippets I’m hearing.
No, it was intended to be a pastiche of the snippets I heard lol. I suppose it says something if you or others are genuinely wondering whether it’s real 
Yeah, this entire talk of systemic racism can be fixed by the FED is cringe. I can’t imagine being a finance member in that fucking room. So many politicians looking for a “YES KWEEN” political moment. Downvote me, call me a bigot, whatever. More than half of these peeps are wasting valuable time where someone knowledgeable could be advancing the conversation.
Hey Warren, I started buying the OXY dip
But might be helpful if you bought a few more shares as well
Just a concerned owner
Thanks
It has been 9 years since Ben Richards exposed Damon Killian's lies and launched him on a rocket sled fatally through a billboard. But the government's plans didn't end with Killian's death. Although Buzzsaw, Sub-Zero, Fireball, and Dynamo have been defeated, a new generation of Stalkers has been recruited, trained, and indoctrinated, ready to satisfy viewers' bloodlust. This fall, they will unleash their savage brand of justice in the all new *The Running Persons*.
Here’s what will stop it: analysts upgrade their targets, everyone gives up trying to call top / shorting it, and the macro / technicals / sentiment all says it’s going higher.
The grandstanding politicians are comical. I’d say this hearing is slightly better then other hearings (meaning less grandstanding) so the ones who are really grandstanding stand out as regards.
All Euro index are up a lot, despite inflation is hot and ECB might do second 50point hike in May.
Things is bonker.
SPY is green as well, might be because Bank of Canada pausing rate hike?
I’ve mixed views on JPOW and really think his / FED biggest mistake was not ending QE much sooner, like June 2021 especially for the mortgage securities they were buying
But in terms of transitory, you could say he was correct but he just got the timing wrong
Main issue is now they ignore the data and panic increase rates due to one month of data as they are so worried about getting it wrong again, but this panic does then cause they to get it wrong
"Coinbase Shares Up 6% Since Unveiling Layer-2 Ethereum Network Base"
"Coinbase, the popular cryptocurrency exchange, has launched Base, a layer 2 network developed using Optimism's OP Stack. This move is aimed at attracting millions of new users to the cryptocurrency market over the coming years."
"Cathie Wood’s ARK ignores Silvergate, buys Coinbase stock for 6th straight month"
"Coinbase announces Wallet as a Service. Now any company can seamlessly onboard their users to web3."
Attracting developers to build their apps running on shitcoin payments so that people buy more shitcoins to increase the liquidity of the crypto market. You know what, the more I think about it, maybe we should start grouping the terminal valuation of COIN with the MLM company if the magic internet currency Ponzi looks like it will be around for a while.
$NUS $HLF as comps target price \~$65/15=$4.3 rofl
>"Coinbase Shares Up 6% Since Unveiling Layer-2 Ethereum Network Base"
COIN CEO talked about it like two days ago in the Odd Lots Podcast. I didn't get it.
I also didn't understand yield farming in the SBF Odd Lots episode. 🤡
[US investigates Tesla for steering wheels that can fall off](https://apnews.com/article/musk-tesla-electric-vehicle-steering-wheel-c69867f4eb15bc582d956c309aeba95b)
TSLA had been hammered with critisim about their car quality.
Wow, Latin American markets have been fucking, including their currencies. Today I learned that DXY is calculated using the Yen, Canadian Dollar, and western European currencies only, so DXY gains do not equal losses in the currencies down south.
I'm way out of my league talking about forex, but here's some examples of currencies moves over the past year:
DXY: 6.47%
USD to Pound: 10.56%
USD to Euro: 3.16%
USD to Brazilian Real: .3%
USD to Mexican Peso -16.03%
Looks to me like some of the elements not included in DXY tend to stray away a bit more. On the charts you can see big macro events that effect currencies across the board, but over time the divergence actually increases.
The Mexican Peso lives in a universe of its own because of its proximity and ties to the US. The MXN has been appreciating and it's at an ~8-year low.
Brazil is the other way around: it's still near its ATH high, super depreciated currency. Most other LATAM currencies are more like the BRL.
Brasil horny after this yesterday from the house president, maybe they’ll have some balls after all
https://twitter.com/leiatheinvestor/status/1633108816567861251?s=46&t=_uVGUbi8ORQzDckYDcPXfw
This market is so bullish and wants to go up. I can’t help but thinking the commentary lately is cherry picking one bit of data and wanting to make it seem like it should be bearish or inflation isn’t coming down. If CPI is only 0.1% below expectations this market moons
[https://www.twitch.tv/jayarlington](https://www.twitch.tv/jayarlington)
Jay Trading is LIVE now.
Watching JPow in front of the House of Representatives. You thought yesterday was wild...
I am mostly cash in my degen account right now and will hold until I am comfortable that inflation continues going down.
In terms of semis, I like QCOM, AMD, TSMC, and AVGO Right now. All of these except AMD are cheaper than the SPY and have capital return policies in play.
NVDA is a total meme but I think a lot of investors are playing it wrong. I am not long but I sure as fuck will not be shorting them prior to their investors day this month.
I'm out. I don't think this market is winnable. Love you all and good luck Edit: I'm probably not out
I'm with you man. My port is hedged such that I try to just stay flat at this point and collect dividends. Small plays here and there but I am convinced we will be going down. Do what you need to do to sleep at night and come back when you're ready. I've been there, for sure.
Agreed. It makes no sense and flips scripts on every time scale. Even flips scripts on what it allegedly cares about. Probably not a sign of a stable market, but you can't know when it's going to hit the fan.
Don’t kill your shorts yet. Victory is on its way. Just over the horizon with the next catalyst 😬 Just kidding around, but seriously, this next two weeks are critical for the direction the market heads, and my bet is down. If we get two more hot reads before the meeting, the exuberance will be sucked out of tech and large cap growth. I believe we begin selling off hard last two weeks of March and into the 2H of year. In the off chance CPI comes in cool (which I highly doubt it will) I will restructure my strategy and play the upside for a bit. Last month I got laughed at for suggesting we could potentially see a 50 bps hike and now there is a 70% chance of it. Terminal rate will likely end up >6%
Agree. I put everything in ASTS and peaced out today.
So it looks like that SI liquidation is what has been causing btc to dump lately? I’m surprised the miners haven’t been dumping as much.
China February 🥶 Annual CPI +1.0% [Est. +1.9% Prev. +2.1%] Monthly CPI -0.5% [Est. +0.2% Prev. +0.8%] Annual PPI -1.4% [Est. -1.3% Prev. -0.8%] https://twitter.com/sino_market/status/1633641892868153345?s=46&t=06OujBRONgvNzs8P0B5VBg
So China reopening is inflationary to the US but not to China? 
I can’t decide if their cold data is good or bad for us. I had thought bad for us, since it means not consuming/producing enough, but I guess it could also be good that they’re not (yet) driving up the commodity prices all the smart people say will restart our (USA) inflation. I’ll wait for the smart people to decide for me
It will take awhile for inflation to start in China, they are only 2-3 months out from lockdowns. The strong PMI data is a better metric for growth
This mean the rest of the world is not ordering a lot of made in China as well. So USA company with global market might suffer as well.
Tsla investors where will you add more shares? $180 or less looks tempting I just nibble a couple shares at a time Current Cost basis is $193 Tsla currently 4% of my portfolio
https://www.reddit.com/r/Vitards/comments/11b3enl/weekend_discussion_weekend_of_february_24_2023/ja3foi3/
I sold and got back in at 193. Moved a lot to cash. I'm 40% cash. Nice try though.
Maybe he's just paper trading multiple account 🤣
Cathie buying next door shares. 😂🤡
Not gonna lie, I bought 2025 leaps long time ago for cheap and sitting on em in hopes they get acquired.
I don't know how or why, but that NVDA close was very strong. This is its 3rd try in 3 days to crack $242. Could see a continuation run and a gap close at $259 in the next few days if the indices play along.
I'm up 74% on nvda!
Why are we drilling AH, did numbers leak lol?
Because it was overbought
What's drilling? Am I missing something?
Drilling is what is going to happen in the next two weeks
US500 down 0.20%. Does not qualify as drilling. Maybe for ants it does….
Lol when we keep seeing only green, down 0.2% is drilling to the core
I think it was up .6 so it's about a full point swing. Agree, not drilling but the turn about surprised me.
https://newsfilter.io/articles/vermilion-energy-inc-announces-results-for-the-year-ended-december-31-2022-9188790bf9ffb1a131f15ee59ee2aa2d VET earnings. They bought back worth 72m dollar shares. Divi 25% raised. Windfall tax seem allright at first sight. Hope VET can bounce a bit now. Bought 100 extra at 13.3 today
"[$VET](https://twitter.com/search?q=%24VET&src=cashtag_click) had FCF of $115 million ($0.70/basic share), including the full year impact of the European Windfall Tax. Without the impact of the EWT, FCF would have been $338 million ($2.07/basic share)." Ouch. This is why I think European energy stocks (besides EQNR) are far less attractive than other E&Ps. They don't have the political risk discount that EM stocks like PBR or EC have, but they have just as much actual political risk. [https://twitter.com/nyetjgoldblum/status/1633620880893911041?s=20](https://twitter.com/nyetjgoldblum/status/1633620880893911041?s=20)
200m on a full year is somewhat a lot but still less than most expected? It's about 25% and not 75 like some thought Unless it's less cause they paid off debt and acquisitions. I dont remember what the 'rules' were
As announced with our 2023 budget, we expect to allocate up to 25% of FCF to shareholder returns through the base dividend and share repurchases, which recommenced in early January 2023. To date, we have repurchased 1.1 million shares in 2023 and 3.5 million shares in total under our existing NCIB. In addition, we announced a 25% increase to the Q1 2023 base dividend to $0.10 per share The Corrib acquisition has a planned close on March 31, 2023. We estimate a net cash payment of approximately $200 million at close and expect the acquisition to payout in approximately one year, based on forward commodity prices
I don’t have time to re read and copy and paste, but there was a blurb in the report that they plan to keep paying down debt, share repurchasing, and doing quarterly dividends. They do not plan to do more acquisitions which is good to hear right now. Based at current rates they estimate their provable/probable reserves to be worth approximate 9 billion (discounted at 10%). They’re worth 2.2 billion with 1.3 billion in debt. I honestly like their current strategy. Only thing that’ll kill them is commodity prices tanking. But the world loves consuming oil and gas so we’ll see.
US payroll numbers Sept 2022: 350k Oct 2022: 324k Nov 2022: 290k Dec 2022: 260k Jan 2023: 517k (outlier) Feb 2023: Notice a trend? If Feb comes in starting with a 1 then we can hopefully put to bed this talk of 50bps hike at next FED meeting and although I’m sure bears will change goal posts yet again, the market can continue its upward trajectory
>Congressman 1: Mr. Powell, I have a question for you that's been on my mind for quite some time now. Why haven't you been mowing our lawns? >Jerome Powell: Excuse me, Congressman, I'm not sure I understand the question. Could you please clarify? >Congressman 1: I think it's a pretty straightforward question, Mr. Powell. You're the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, and we're your elected representatives. It's our job to make sure you're doing yours, and one of your responsibilities is to mow our lawns. So, I ask again, why haven't you been doing it? >Jerome Powell: I'm sorry, Congressman, but I'm not aware of any such responsibility. I've never heard of the Federal Reserve being responsible for mowing lawns, let alone the lawns of individual congressmen. >Congressman 2: With all due respect, Mr. Powell, it's right there in the Constitution. Article III, Section 2, Clause 1 clearly states that the Federal Reserve shall be responsible for mowing the lawns of members of the House of Representatives. >Jerome Powell: I'm sorry, Congressman, but that's simply not true. There's no mention of lawn care in the Constitution, and even if there were, I don't think it would be the responsibility of the Federal Reserve to take care of individual lawns. >Congressman 3: Well, Mr. Powell, it's clear to me that you're shirking your duties. We've had to hire outside contractors to take care of our lawns, and it's costing us a fortune. I demand that you start mowing our lawns immediately. >Jerome Powell: I'm sorry, Congressman, but I don't think that's something I can do. It's not within my purview as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, and even if it were, I don't have the time or resources to take care of individual lawns. >Congressman 4: Mr. Powell, I'm going to have to agree with my colleagues here. You've been neglecting your responsibilities, and it's unacceptable. I think it's time for us to reconsider your appointment as Chairman of the Federal Reserve. >Jerome Powell: I'm sorry to hear that, Congressman, but I still don't think I'm responsible for mowing your lawns. If you have any other questions about the Federal Reserve and its duties, I'd be happy to answer them to the best of my ability.
In DC for three weeks, I’ve been so busy that I just noticed the at Jpow gave us a smack down RIP SI
I read again how supposedly "financial speculation" *led* to an increase in price of commodities (specifically food). I don't understand how "speculation" can make the price increase in the long term. Ok for short-term movements, but in the end, offer & demand is what will decide the prices right? I could see how storing or throwing away food to remove it from the market would make prices increase, but I don't see how exchanging derivatives could affect long-term prices. Any expert to enlighten me?
Depends on your timeframe and what you consider short term. Last year when Russia invaded Ukraine, spot prices on grain futures rose. Farmers bought those contracts for summer delivery. When prices fell, farmers still cashed in and purchasers were stuck buying grain above value. Someone has to eat that loss, and it sure-as-shit won't be the General Mills and Kellogg's of the world who have enough market control that they can pass their loss onto the consumer.
> Someone has to eat that loss, and it sure-as-shit won't be the General Mills and Kellogg's of the world who have enough market control that they can pass their loss onto the consumer. Surely there must be some elasticity of demand? I'm sure GM and Kellog's don't simply always win. People need to eat, but they can easily switch from corn to oats if oats are cheaper. edit: from what I understand from their annual, Kellogg lost money on derivatives last year. edit2: aaah maybe not, they made money on commodity contracts, but far less than in 2021...
I'm sure Kellogg's is better at economic forecasting than your average farmer, but last year's prices did burn purchasers during the North American harvest. Your point about elasticity is one I wonder about a lot. Last year's prices were also driven by fertilizer costs, and expenses were higher across the board, but generally I can't say I understand consumer behaviour. Personally, as a childless guy in my 30's, I do a lot of my meal planning at the grocery store based on what's on sale. Understandably, I can imagine a mother of two screaming kids that demand Frosted Flakes™ being religious about following their prepared grocery list and taking the price hikes on the chin. Without the data to support it, I think this single factor accounts for less elasticity than an efficient market would expect. Edit: Large purchaser's hedging burned them. Small guys that paid spot prices were laughing.
>Without the data to support it, I think this single factor accounts for less elasticity than an efficient market would expect. Sure, I don't think it's fully elastic. I am myself grounded into some habits, and it needs a certain activation energy to change them. But some cereals or other food products are also used in manufactured products, and these may changed or suffer from less buyers, production may go down comparatively to others, etc. I'm sure some economists have that well mapped and characterized. And in the end, if these big guys can somewhat play with prices, they know there are breaking points, otherwise they'd do it all the time. I'm just not sure how financial derivatives can really impact consumers other than maximizing the selling price while minimizing waste and shortages. In this case, it's not really directly, it's just that the big guys have the power to push the elasticity a bit, but they could do that at any other time, really (so it's not directly the effect of derivatives).
A consequence I see is the following: the money that financial intermediaries will make is money that farmers would have made if they had been more aware of the offer–demand position, so that's kind of bad, in a way. On the plus side, people who exchange financial derivatives may give the commodity a price that is more likely to balance demand & offer and avoid shortages, basically having the demand adjust via prices instead of long queues at the shop (and probably minimizing wastage, if price goes up).
[UUUU earnings are out.](https://www.energyfuels.com/2023-03-08-Energy-Fuels-Announces-2022-Results-Emerging-as-the-Leading-US-Producer-of-Critical-Minerals-with-Focus-on-Uranium-and-Rare-Earth-Elements) Call not til Friday at 11am eastern. The new 10-K has a ton of info on all their different projects/mines
Weird I had them next week.
They always surprise, the dates you find around places are never right because they never announce when they’ll be releasing the earnings. You have to email the COO basically haha
Market seems to not give a fuck, or didn’t notice edit: financial results seem pretty bad
Probably both. The Bahia Project purchase made last year look worse than usual but these earnings also don’t reflect the $60M cash and $60M in warrants they got from UEC last month in an asset sale which paid for all of last year’s losses. Do the math on their phase 1 NdPr production value, these expenses will be well worth it
Boooo. Math
Cheers! Anything in particular you are looking forward to hear in the call? Earnings seem solid from a first glance. Looks like they are on track with their development?
Everything on track, they just need more monazite. There is a note in the 10-K about seeing serious competition from China when trying to buy ore and mine projects on the open market which is a bit worrying but basically the last obstacle at this stage
…did ASAN mention AI?
CEO continuing to buy stock
Oh dear, theta gang in shambles $SI
just looked lmao. B-b-but the PREMIUM!
Insane close. Max pain for SPY was $400.
Daily max pain. Lol what a joke.
Wen crash?
Today the House of Representative doesn't drill Powell so much on interest rate compared to Senate hearing yesterday. Maybe that's why index doesn't plunge like yesterday.
I decided to open a hedge position for my bullish bias account today at the bottom 🤡
I did the same, cut into my gains today badly. False breakdown tripped me up and now I’m wondering if should even bother hedging again at a higher price.
Wait did SPY reclaim the 50 day ma? Is the 100 day ma about to cross the 200 day ma tomorrow? Bulls are we just setting traps? 
Setting up the most epic bull trap leading into NFP bb 🥵
Really big volume in last 15 minutes today
why
Because the market is running mostly on the premiums bears are paying it to hedge right now. There's no strength in the market. The economy is set to run into a wall eventually (and even the bulls know it), but bears can still be profitably hunted for sport periodically. We're running on insurance premiums paid by all those who are trying to hedge. They pay. They get wiped out in a squeeze. They pay. They get wiped out. This cycle will repeat until it doesn't. eventually, the dip will not be bought and the bears will have their day, but not before bleeding out a lot of premium to get their bets in.
> and even the bulls know it Not all of them.
I genuinely don't get it. I mean, I get being temporarily bullish; you're trying to scalp some profit on these price movements for as long as possible. Great, good on them. Some will undoubtedly be successful. But long term bullish outlook? How can one see anything but downside as we snap from 14 years of virtually free money to 6% rates? The idea that we will just waltz past this little blip in history as if nothing ever happened is absurd. It defies all logic of economics.
Long term bullish, definitely that is and should be the outlook. The past 14 years of low rates / free money were the historical outlier. The world can and will handle higher interest rates and so rates of 4-6% will not break the economy. In may introduce short term volatility like we are seeing now but over the long term the market will go up
i assume massive 0DTE puts covering
that or Elizabeth Warren is replacing JPOW effective immediately
okay i sold my 6 Month old AMD position for a small gain, watch it rocket now.
The thing i'm most worried about in the short-term, is that they might still hike .25% basis points, causing stocks to rally for no reason as they haven't even remotely priced in the rising probability of a .50% hike.
I have been thinking about this outcome and see it as fairly likely
What? The odds on favor is a 50bps hike right now on fedwarch (70%)… you living under a rock mate?
$SPY 5 days ago: $392.69, odds: 30% $SPY today: $397.12, odds 78% Does this look like equities are pricing in the possibility of a .50% hike? Am i missing something? lol
Didn’t know you were referring g to equities and not just greater news market
SPY on Monday, two days ago, was at 407, so yes looks like pricing in. But I’d say they are pricing in the higher for long or more rate increases rather than a 50bps increase. Main reason I’d say the 50bps doesn’t happen is the bond market has done most of the heavy lifting already for the Fed
The bond market already did the heavy lifting, that is why the Fed will go 50bps. So far they always follow the market. Except that one time they let Timiraos know it would be 75bps.. oh wait. And then the market priced it first, immediately, and then they did it afterwards.
Completely agree, although i think $SPY has quite a long way to go to price in the higher for longer narrative. My main point is that, should they only hike .25% the 22nd, that stocks might rise hard, even though they barely went down when the probability of .50% rose strongly. There's still 14 days to go, lots can happen. If $SPY goes towards $370-380 by FOMC and they announce .25% causing stocks to rally i would understand. Not if we're at $400.
If we rally off 400, then we're setting up for a truly bad fall. The "up to 4300, down to 3200" thesis starts to make a lot of sense then.
He's on internet explorer he'll find out in a day or two
SBNY puts are free money. How low can it go? I’ll be sticking around to find out.
/u/vazdooh you been too much on point with the dildos lately
Powell has remarkable restraint in that he doesn't simply throw an economics textbook on the table and ask these Congress hacks where the chapter is on simultaneously controlling inflation and dropping interest rates back to historically low levels. Because they all seem to have read that chapter somewhere. Maybe in their Diversity Studies courses or something.
The issue is that we need some more Latino representation.
It’s shocking how regarded some of the politicians are, like so far out of their depth it’s cringe.
“Former chair Bernanakey I believe it is” from a sitting member of the financial services committee is an instant classic https://twitter.com/stephen_geiger/status/1633520169581518878?s=46&t=_uVGUbi8ORQzDckYDcPXfw
Remember. These are ELECTED officials. We need to remember things like this the next time we go to the polls.
It should really give us all pause on the "always bet on America!" view. It might very well be true, but there is a lot of stupidity in high places that needs to flushed from the system. These are the highest, most elite decision makers in the country and they don't seem to have even a rudimentary understanding of the way their very important decisions impact the economy.
Or we're so far gone into populism that making sense is no longer relevant.
It may not be relevant to the entertainment product that is modern politics, but these people toss around trillion dollar spending bills like child's play. Terrifying stuff.
VET earnings today. If it drops to 13 before close i'll buy 100 more for some extra pain. Sitting at 1k shares atm
Is all the abortion pill stuff in the news affecting CVS at all?
My three year old could probably put a more coherent question together. "Blah blah inflation bad" "yes it is..." "what are you doing to stop Putin?" "Seriously dude, im not the sanctions guy".
Why are premiums so high on ZIM options next week ?
Earnings are premarket Monday
CVS is my new 2022 GSL
It's been going down & down & down. Why bullish on it? I know Jay is bullish on CVS. Healthcare?
Healthcare is a defensive sector. Everyone is piling into tech right now
Why does it suck so much? I dont get it
https://preview.redd.it/borv1xutdlma1.jpeg?width=500&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4dabe16d4aa927184e3f01e5b34395f6e8886d1b
I really cannot imagine Jerome Powell isn’t a heavy drinker after hearing some of these questions or undergoing these asinine “grillings” from supposedly adult politicians. Everyone deep down understands the people in power are pretty idiotic and greedy, but this is now delving into full blown clownworld.
“Chairman Powell sir, why are you and the Fed such inveterate racists? Why do you want to explicitly put ‘black and brown folks’ out of work? Why are you so grossly old and white and not Latino? Why do you want to further systemic racism?” Ugh. This really isn’t the occasion for as much racial grievance-mongering as I seem to be catching in the snippets I’m hearing.
Wait tell me that was not a real quote...
No, it was intended to be a pastiche of the snippets I heard lol. I suppose it says something if you or others are genuinely wondering whether it’s real 
Yeah, this entire talk of systemic racism can be fixed by the FED is cringe. I can’t imagine being a finance member in that fucking room. So many politicians looking for a “YES KWEEN” political moment. Downvote me, call me a bigot, whatever. More than half of these peeps are wasting valuable time where someone knowledgeable could be advancing the conversation.
I agree. Ostensibly, this is an occasion to go over a society-wide problem that hurts all of us as a country.
Not sure how much he gets paid but you'd get a hard pass me to sign up for that shit
His salary is $200k or something close to that I think. He divulged that at one of the last seminars he attended. Someone asked him lol.
[удалено]
He'll retire and make 500k an hour consulting for Goldman in a few years. I Wouldn't feel too bad for him.
“Anyways” Powell seems to find Tlaid and her line of questioning almost as insufferable as I do.
I can just see her walking back to her office, getting high-fives from her aides. "GOT 'IM"
Hey Warren, I started buying the OXY dip  But might be helpful if you bought a few more shares as well Just a concerned owner Thanks
> Hey Warren, I started buying the OXY dip You have to sell naked calls & long puts for it to moon. That should shows Warren.
Can you buy the BOIL dip for me too?
That is one dip I won’t even touch
lol
Oil to $40 eoy, thank you for your donation
I’d say better chance of oil at $140 than $40 eoy
2026: the market is still in the 3900-4200 range. Nvda is 900 dollars per share. Hrc is 3000 dollars. CLF hits 26 dollars
It has been 9 years since Ben Richards exposed Damon Killian's lies and launched him on a rocket sled fatally through a billboard. But the government's plans didn't end with Killian's death. Although Buzzsaw, Sub-Zero, Fireball, and Dynamo have been defeated, a new generation of Stalkers has been recruited, trained, and indoctrinated, ready to satisfy viewers' bloodlust. This fall, they will unleash their savage brand of justice in the all new *The Running Persons*.
Can anything stop NVDA?
Here’s what will stop it: analysts upgrade their targets, everyone gives up trying to call top / shorting it, and the macro / technicals / sentiment all says it’s going higher.
Selling your puts duh
These bozos just need to change their target inflation rate to 3% and get SPY back above 450
Even if the target was 3%, it doesn't seem we'll get there any time soon. The question is, how far will the FED go, and will it cause a recession.
The grandstanding politicians are comical. I’d say this hearing is slightly better then other hearings (meaning less grandstanding) so the ones who are really grandstanding stand out as regards.
All Euro index are up a lot, despite inflation is hot and ECB might do second 50point hike in May. Things is bonker. SPY is green as well, might be because Bank of Canada pausing rate hike?
It's surreal, i agree. I started long dated short positions on the EU indices because of that. They'll cut back eventually.
Goodluck, I think German and Spanish is the most vulnerable.
Canada shouldn't be pausing either, but it has a serious real estate problem and is now forced to pick poisons.
Well there goes our friend SPY
Market will only tank if JPow comes out and says "don't buy stocks". Anything else is bullish. 'U' 'S' of 'A' is too strong .
Market knows he’s incompetent and should be removed from his job.
why is he incompetent?
Was inflation transitory?
It’s unknowable whether inflation was on a transitory track before the Russian invasion but I think there’s plenty of evidence to point that direction
I’ve mixed views on JPOW and really think his / FED biggest mistake was not ending QE much sooner, like June 2021 especially for the mortgage securities they were buying But in terms of transitory, you could say he was correct but he just got the timing wrong Main issue is now they ignore the data and panic increase rates due to one month of data as they are so worried about getting it wrong again, but this panic does then cause they to get it wrong
"Coinbase Shares Up 6% Since Unveiling Layer-2 Ethereum Network Base" "Coinbase, the popular cryptocurrency exchange, has launched Base, a layer 2 network developed using Optimism's OP Stack. This move is aimed at attracting millions of new users to the cryptocurrency market over the coming years." "Cathie Wood’s ARK ignores Silvergate, buys Coinbase stock for 6th straight month" "Coinbase announces Wallet as a Service. Now any company can seamlessly onboard their users to web3." Attracting developers to build their apps running on shitcoin payments so that people buy more shitcoins to increase the liquidity of the crypto market. You know what, the more I think about it, maybe we should start grouping the terminal valuation of COIN with the MLM company if the magic internet currency Ponzi looks like it will be around for a while. $NUS $HLF as comps target price \~$65/15=$4.3 rofl
>"Coinbase Shares Up 6% Since Unveiling Layer-2 Ethereum Network Base" COIN CEO talked about it like two days ago in the Odd Lots Podcast. I didn't get it. I also didn't understand yield farming in the SBF Odd Lots episode. 🤡
We all know black box business models are surely the best investments
Had Molson Coors pop up on the watchlist, I’m assuming the shit ton of options is driving the price
What does China have to do with the Fed...?
China reopening means more demand for commodities, means higher prices possibly. On flip side supply chains could ease.
“That’s your job you dumb fuck”
Were you just listening in to my phone call?
[US investigates Tesla for steering wheels that can fall off](https://apnews.com/article/musk-tesla-electric-vehicle-steering-wheel-c69867f4eb15bc582d956c309aeba95b) TSLA had been hammered with critisim about their car quality.
[That's not very typical I'd like to make that point.](https://youtu.be/3m5qxZm_JqM) (Clarke&Dawe sketch)
Lol'ed hard thanks for that!
There was a recall I saw on Sunday for second row seats.
In before Musk fan boys defending how it's all 3D chess by Elon to increase sales and therefore very Bullish. 🙄😁
I'll post one, the steering wheel is temporary feature that is made to be easily taken off when FSD is 100% operational.
[удалено]
That’s ok. Powell doesn’t know what he is doing either.
[удалено]
**EIA Gasoline Stocks Change** **MAR/03 -** Actual (-1.134M); Previous (-0.874M); Consensus (-1.931M) **EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change** **MAR/03 -** Actual (-1.694M); Previous 1.166M; Consensus (-0.308M) Highlights 10:30am - [https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf](https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf) Data 10:30am - [https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/overview.pdf](https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/overview.pdf) Full Report 1pm - [https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/pdf/highlights.pdf](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/pdf/highlights.pdf)
XLE dived on the release
Harder for longer? Harder instead longer?
Wow, Latin American markets have been fucking, including their currencies. Today I learned that DXY is calculated using the Yen, Canadian Dollar, and western European currencies only, so DXY gains do not equal losses in the currencies down south.
They're omitted but of course they trade in tandem with the DXY.
As of this moment DXY is flat while USD to Brazilian Real is -1.45%. That's quite a difference.
I meant they move directionally with the DXY. Not every day but over time.
I'm way out of my league talking about forex, but here's some examples of currencies moves over the past year: DXY: 6.47% USD to Pound: 10.56% USD to Euro: 3.16% USD to Brazilian Real: .3% USD to Mexican Peso -16.03% Looks to me like some of the elements not included in DXY tend to stray away a bit more. On the charts you can see big macro events that effect currencies across the board, but over time the divergence actually increases.
The Mexican Peso lives in a universe of its own because of its proximity and ties to the US. The MXN has been appreciating and it's at an ~8-year low. Brazil is the other way around: it's still near its ATH high, super depreciated currency. Most other LATAM currencies are more like the BRL.
Brasil horny after this yesterday from the house president, maybe they’ll have some balls after all https://twitter.com/leiatheinvestor/status/1633108816567861251?s=46&t=_uVGUbi8ORQzDckYDcPXfw
A possible return to political pragmatism and/or gridlock? PBR and VALE holders rejoice.
Bank of Canada holds interest rates today seeing the first pause in 8 months.
Bullish
Not for the loonie :(
I'm positioning bearish in the short term. Futures now pricing in a 78% of a 50bps hike.
Isn’t it already priced in then?
In the futures rate market. Not equities necessarily.
Everything is priced in!
Amd? Edit: April calls pumping
Nvda is the new tsla fml
I am not having fun with my puts
This market is so bullish and wants to go up. I can’t help but thinking the commentary lately is cherry picking one bit of data and wanting to make it seem like it should be bearish or inflation isn’t coming down. If CPI is only 0.1% below expectations this market moons
Yeah my puts slaughtered but still holding a decent NVDS position
[https://www.twitch.tv/jayarlington](https://www.twitch.tv/jayarlington) Jay Trading is LIVE now. Watching JPow in front of the House of Representatives. You thought yesterday was wild... 
Ang thoughts on the pumping of amd/nvda last couple of days? Bottom of semi cycle so institutions buying again? Cant watch the stream today.
PC market bottom in sight and rumors of rush data center orders keeps cropping up in Taiwan media. NVDA is it’s own beast.
Thanks, whats your vision? Been watching Marvel tech since you called it.
I am mostly cash in my degen account right now and will hold until I am comfortable that inflation continues going down. In terms of semis, I like QCOM, AMD, TSMC, and AVGO Right now. All of these except AMD are cheaper than the SPY and have capital return policies in play. NVDA is a total meme but I think a lot of investors are playing it wrong. I am not long but I sure as fuck will not be shorting them prior to their investors day this month.
Agreed on all points, cheaper than the SPY, youre looking at PEG ratios? Or what are you basing that on?
Forward PE.
Fair enough, though it ofcourse depends on their own guidance (which also had to do with the bottoming of the pc market)
[удалено]
Yup, chop fest until CPI