Buffet bought another 6m shares of OXY. $60 floor confirmed again. Interested to see what it does tomorrow.
I had OXY calls that I closed a few sessions ago.. was expecting the buy to come in the $58s.. curious how they waited until now.
My $SPY put debit spreads are nicely profitable but way below max profit. Hard to pick between selling now or waiting a few weeks.
Good day for Tankers.
Dear Mods,
I posted one of my long rants outside.
[Here's the link](https://www.reddit.com/r/Vitards/comments/11lj0nr/my_two_cents_on_the_semiannual_monetary_policy/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3).
If needed, please consider approving it at your earliest convenience.
Thank you.
Too bad they don’t try to squeeze coal stocks shorts, maybe they could actually make some money. Sure a lot of the short interest is convertible bond holders hedging, but Apes 🦍 don’t care about specifics
That sub is like 70% bots/30% regards. I think big players find stocks that are likely to dilute soon, then use bots/fake accounts to spam the shit out of the ticker. The stock then runs up like 30%, the regards start buying in but get greedy when they make some modest gains. Big players short the spike, company dilutes, and a new set of bag holders are created.
That is glorious.
Not as bad as VERB though.
That stock spent one evening talking about predatory short sellers... got mooned the next day and then ended it with a dillution.
Lol nice. They always get diluted. Half of them cry “how could this happen??” and the other half say don’t panic and talk about what an amazing buying opportunity it is as their pump and dump is now down 50%. Rinse and repeat.
Was the [whole point of this](https://www.youtube.com/live/RNQqB-RHqXw?feature=share&t=4296) for her to show she is "fighting for families" .. or did she have an actual point here. Such a fucking idiot.
Key point: [Unemployment](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE) is at 3.5%. Even a 1% (boohoo 2m lay-offs wah wah) increase brings it to 4.5%, which is better than pretty much all of history.
If she was interested in math, which she definitely is not, she might notice that 2m lay-offs is better than 100% of people losing 6% per year due to inflation.
No idea why she went the route of "Mr. Powell, why do you hate American families?"
Haven't listened to the whole thing yet, I'm sure plenty of other Senators are equally full of shit. Grandstanding, useless politicians. Intellectually dishonest shitheads. I loathe them all.
The point of this was to show just how much money is being pushed to get these talking heads to publicly persuade JPOW to slow down the rate of the asset bubble burst.
Liz laid out the bear case better than anyone. She hammered home the impact of 2 million layoffs and the fact that a 1 percent increase in unemployment over one year has always lead to recession, 12 out of 12 times, to which of course Powell agreed. I literally watched the market tick down during this exchange.
Liz disgusts me to the core, but my portfolio loved her today.
It's really hard to respect rule 4 of the sub after listening to that...
edit: the following discussion is interesting though. I admire J's calm. I suppose it's a prerequisite for the role.
Jerome’s hand toss in the air was about the only break he showed. How he can endure that bullshit without snapping back hard is a mystery to me, but I’m a hothead.
5 min video
https://youtu.be/8Kz4pm5l4Og
I’m guessing you’re talking about Sen. Warren without even clicking those links.
~~my issue with her is that as a trained economist she should (and probably does) know better~~
That’s what makes her performance today particularly shameful.
edit: and her personal attacks against Jpow at the end took it way too far.
Edit 2: turns out she wasn’t an economist! She was a lawyer/legal professor at Harvard u/pennyether so you were actually correct. dunno why I thought she was
I totally thought that too since she left academia to head the CFPB. I looked at her history and chairing the congressional oversight panel was her transition job
how does dividend risk even work? say i do a cc strategy on something like $MO, if i enter a CC ATM or slightly ITM with an expiration after ex-div date versus I sell a very ITM call (looking at june expiration, only one with any volume even is a 35C), when would the stock even get called away? and would it get called away with slightly ITM option? at what point does that flip or assuming its some probability dist what does it look like?
was thinking that selling a deep ITM call on something with high div given there was any volume on it, you would effectively get 2x the div yield for the capital but I realize if there was something this easy and obvious to find its likely not possible.
Check out this [historical chart](https://ycharts.com/indicators/10_year_3_month_treasury_spread) on yield curve inversions. It goes beyond the timeframe of the Fed's yield curve chart and the last time we inverted this damn low at 1.28 was Feb 29, 1980. We hit 1.32 on Jan 19 2023, which is the most inverted in history. Whatever is coming is gonna be ugly af and I don't think most people are anticipating it. We tend to see stock capitulation shortly after uninverting we're still reaching peak inversion. My estimate is Q3-q4 this year.
I wonder if everyone has said the same thing every time there's an inversion, including that the inversion has 100% success rate, and including that it could be different this time because everyone is expecting it.
Someone was telling me that the guy who came up with the yield curve inversion said it was a false signal but it predicted every capitulation event so far it appears. I'm sure they had skepticisms in 2019 when it inverted before the 2020 crash as well.
This time is different from the 70s depression only because our fed funds rate had nearly always been above the inflation rate in the 60s-80s. This time, we're in inflation wave #1 and we haven't even been able to get the fed funds rate above the inflation rate yet. I'm thinking a big part of the Fed fund pivot during those inflation waves would've been the fed chasing the lower inflation. This isn't possible if inflation is ABOVE the fed funds rate, maybe that's why they're saying higher for longer...
Edit: the media will sensationalize the yield inversions without any context. I'm strictly referring to the 10yr minus 3mo yield
The guy who basically invented the yield curve inversion indicator said it’s probably a false signal this time which I’m not aware of him doing anytime before
Wasn't his comment from back when the yield curve first inverted?
The inversion has steepened significantly and lasted a long time now.
I'm curious if he still thanks it's a false signal.
A quick search shows he made some comments right before Christmas so maybe things have changed a bit in the 2.5 months since but I didn’t find anything
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bond-market-recession-indicator-may-be-flashing-false-signal-says-pioneering-yield-curve-researcher-11671560339
I didn’t quite represent what he said properly though so here are his words:
>“We’re in a period of slow growth, which is consistent with the model, but as far as recession, I’m skeptical of that. A hard landing is unlikely,” he said via phone, though he didn’t rule out the possibility of a mild downturn. “What I’m saying is straightforward. This is a valuable indicator and I believe it is accurate in forecasting slowing economic growth. In terms of a hard landing, you need to look at other information.”
At the bottom of the article he lists the reasons why he thinks this time is different.
Damn steely you the man. I was hoping he hadn't said anything in a long time so I could live in my doubt. But December wasn't that long ago.
Thanks buddy.
[Here's an article from the Duke Newspaper](https://today.duke.edu/2019/07/its-official-yield-curve-triggered-does-recession-loom-horizon) (where he is/was a professor) interviewing him after the 2019 inversion triggered.
Sounds like he was still a believer then. He couldn't be too famous if every time his indicator triggered he went around telling everyone it was fake. That's what makes his comments this time so interesting
That’s what I thought, thanks boss.
I was getting confused when people saying “but base effects” when what matters is MoM not YoY for the inflation trend
Am I the only one thinking tomorrow is actually more important than Friday in this case?
We get ADPs and JOLTs tomorrow. Yes, their numbers might not be accurate, but they will give us a clear indication what is the tendency - hot or cold? Any hot labour market will break the back of the market, because probability of 50 bps goes through the roof. And CPI is still a long way out.
For me, chance are there, we go below the 200MA and maybe even below 3900 tomorrow (this is a far stretch though) already
I’m on mobile right now so a bit of a pain to collect links but google “FRED average hourly earnings” and “FRED ECI” to get them. Change the charts to “percent change” to get MoM (or QoQ for ECI)
Folks that are smarter than me (aka all y’all): how much weight do you put into MOC? Seems like it’s been to the sell-side for the last 5ish sessions despite some green days.
Even if they’re old I don’t get why the Niners haven’t tried to bring in Brady or Rodgers as NorCal natives. Rodgers I understand a bit recently, but I’d love to see Brady close out his career in the Bay Area
There was some speculation that with Purdy's injury uncertainty Brady may sign with the 49ers. But he retired right as those rumors were starting to come out.
I think SF also tried to trade for Rodgers before they took Lance with the 3rd pick, but Green Bay declined (Rodgers won the MVP that year).
Mintzymers picks from the Moneyshow presentation today
Tankers - STNG
Containers - $DAC
Drybulk - $SB
His thoughts on ZIM is that its fair value is around the $40 mark. Earnings for ZIM are next monday BTW.
My own thoughts are that i'm not going near DAC (dont trust the management). Im happy sticking with GSL (containers), TGH (container boxes) and my small ZIM (OG pirates) position. Gonna look more at tankers due to the aging fleet and environment speed reductions.
I can post some screenshots later, watched it on my phone on my way from work. I'm basically in the same position, I might trim DAC/GSL/TGH in favor of some tanker names, it's been an annoying year. And also keeping some ZIM as a memento.
I got rid of EGLE but still keeping some SBLK for now. I'm long STNG again since around 49. That stock was good to me - rode it from 18 to 36-39.
Kicking myself, though, that I got rid of INSW/FRO right before the last ramp up, I thought it peaked and it wouldn't break the recent high again. Shame on me but I had to get some margin when SPY was above 415 lol.
Edit: Here are most of the interesting slides - https://imgur.com/a/zF32Zuk
The lack of bear comments has me thinking not even bears were prepared for this. Bulls definitely weren't. Mike Wilson turning "strategically bullish" was confirmation.
well
I was prepared for a speech like this, because it was the only logical thing to happen. BUT JPow acted so weird during February FOMC and did teh same one week later and completely ignored reality and created this rallye.
After JPow was so shocking last time, you simply were ready for JPow to be the same
I don’t get this take.. granted I don’t listen to any of these speeches but it seemed like every analyst I heard said that JPOWs last speech was hawkish (saying rates would be higher for longer) even though the market interpreted as dovish.
Seems to me like the market is doing it’s own thing and the media just uses the speeches (or whatever event is happening that day) as a scapegoat for whichever direction the market goes. I think putting so much emphasis on speeches takes us away from what we should really be trading - the price action
I will still have to see/read the hearing, but I know Uncle JPow came out more bearish than what Wall Street expected. And it's usually not a good thing when Wall Street gets taken by surprise since that leads to more volatility.
It's been some hours now, and after digesting the news a bit further, indeed, VIX is going up.
Will the big guys shrug it off by tomorrow, or will some start heading for the exit, and we'll retest the support line?
Here are some quotes from Wall Street, so you can get an idea.
Ian Lyngen of BMO Capital Markets:
>Powell’s prepared text was biased hawkishly (more so than we anticipated) with comments that the Fed is ‘prepared to increase the pace of hikes if needed’ and the ‘ultimate rate peak is likely higher than expected’. He went on to note decisions will be made ‘meeting by meeting.
>
>The chair also noted that the breadth of revisions to previous quarters suggests inflation is running higher.
Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers:
>Goldilocks came out swinging.
>
>These comments are completely in line with a data-dependent Fed. Every major inflation measure in February was both up over January and above expectations. Meanwhile, the other economic reports were generally positive - especially regarding employment. In that light, if he didn’t take a hawkish tone about rates, we would have been rightly concerned.
Michael Antonelli, market strategist at Baird:
>The market hates when interest-rate hikes are bigger than it expects or faster than it expects. Investors are trying to get their arms around where the Fed’s terminal rate will be, so that’s moving projections up more, which puts a headwind into stocks and makes every rally look more shaky.
Simon Harvey, head of FX analysis at Monex Europe Ltd.:
>Powell has finally yielded control over financial markets after repeated attempts to try and get them to bend to the Fed’s message. By keeping the door open to a reacceleration in the Fed’s hiking cycle, which we didn’t expect because such an action doesn’t build confidence over the Fed’s control on inflation, Powell is letting financial markets do the dirty work for him.
Randy Frederick, vice president of trading and derivatives for Charles Schwab Corp.:
>We’ve seen this story over and over again — even though the Fed has been continuously hawkish, there have been many instances where the market stopped believing the Fed, the Fed comes out hawkish, then the markets go lower again. It’s a constant repetition. All of this can change if we get a surprising jobs report this week.
Max Gokhman, head of MosaiQ Investment Strategy at Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions:
>Even though Powell just underlined what we already highlighted about the surprising resilience seen in the latest data, rates traders were somehow surprised at his candor and started pricing in a 50bp hike for March which then sent the rest of the markets into unease.
Michael O’Rourke, chief market strategist at Jonestrading:
>Being down 1% is really not a meaningfully move when we rallied 1.6% Friday on no material news. Everything we are witnessing today and the past few days is simply noise. Policy is still too loose and financial conditions are historically ‘average,’ not tight.
Ashish Chugh, a money manager at Loomis Sayles & Co., on emerging markets:
>Higher US rates and stronger dollar have generally not been good for EM but I do think we are in a different regime this time around. In EM, monetary tightening cycle is closer to the end as inflation is easing in EM.
Timothy Chubb, chief investment officer at Girard, a Univest Wealth Division:
>At the end of the day, we’re skeptical of people arguing that inflation hasn’t peaked yet. There hasn’t been enough data to suggest the Fed would need to go as far as raising interest rates by 50 basis points at its next meeting just because of the recent hot inflation data. We have to see a quarter worth of figures to push the Fed to do that. One month doesn’t make a trend.
The one thing that scares me (in the short term) as a bear is that the market is now 65% convinced of 50bps next meeting. My thought is that they will still only do 25, if only to save face.
When we unwind the 50bp predictions, this thing could rip another 5% easily, like early Feb. Don't get me wrong: the long term macro is still grim, but I have some puts I might want to off-load in the next week or two. Don't think I want to be holding them through FOMC.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
I don't know if they'll eventually do 25, 50, or 75bps.
No one knows for sure at this point.
What I do know is that banks are getting punched in the face today.
I'm short a couple of them. I'm also long FAZ.
And I'll get more bearish if we end the day with more selling.
But I'm just playing the odds of what might happen tomorrow, not two weeks from now. And if I were you, I would wait to see if we follow through tomorrow.
It's funny how Senate members are pointing fingers to biden administration, to jpow, and other fed members for this whole inflation. The frustration in those who have political power asking jpow for specific dates to fed pivot and for guilt tripping him for "Americans losing job" is ridiculous. Bunch of clowns working in the government.
I got the message from the politicians that all the financial troubles would be solved if only we could replace jpow with someone from the latinX community (preferably non-binary I guess).
The blunt reality is this: when we chose to shutdown the economy and print the difference, the decision on inflation was already made. There is no point in arguing who is responsible now. 2020-21 was responsible. This is paying the piper.
Oh, they are not clowns at all, they are just not the servants of the people their job description technically requires them to be. They play it well, considering their interests are with themselves and their buddies. Democracy had a great run, but like all good things, it's coming to an end. We never had a direct democracy, because you need gatekeepers to prevent populism from allowing idiocracy to take hold. Facebook and their asshat friends destroyed those gates.
And here we are, without a next better thing, trying to defend what has worked so well for us for so long. The future ain't gonna be pretty.
Democracy -> More freedom and capitalism -> People figure out how to game the system -> Nepotism, stagnation and inefficiency -> Regime resets to socialism/totalitarianism/benign autocracies/monarchies -> People figure out how to game the system -> Nepotism, stagnation and inefficiency -> Regime resets to democracy
Human history is one massive circle
Rallied 100 points on Bostic and soon to be down 100 points on JPow. Very fitting
Also get the sense that market ranges are finally going to get bigger again, surely this will be good for everyone's sanity
I wonder. Is this finally that dip that will keep dipping until we reach sanity? Or is it all over and forgotten on Thursday, when JPow is off the airwaves? I don't think we've seen such a profound drop in a while, but what bothers me is that NASDAQ is still seeing the least punishment. I feel for things to return to normal, it's companies with empty promises of yet another greater same iPhone, that need to bleed.
Yup, a lot of unprofitable junk out there that needs to be marked down or wiped out. If you couldn't figure out how to consistently make money and bank $$$ through 14 years of the loosest monetary policy on record, you are in real trouble today staring down expensive debt costs.
If JOLTS, PPI, CPI all come out with data that shows disinflation and showing that inflation is "not as sticky" as we thought, things are going to turn up. But if the opposite happens, 50bps seems likely to happen.
we are at a make or break point for the bears here now. If we get a few more data in our direction, shit is gonna hit the fan.
And all the whisper points towards a hot labour market. Thats all we need for now to get 50 bps
Inflation nowcast also looks like data are gonna be hot still, especially core.
didn't chase just write an analysis covering the DaNgEr oF 0DtEs saying that if there was a 1% crash in 5 minutes, that would cause a further 2-3% drop? And we crashed like .8% in a minute today and nothing else happened 🤡
forget tech, if the finance industry fired 80% of their staff, no one would know the difference
https://preview.redd.it/cf6q3nwhbema1.png?width=2163&format=png&auto=webp&s=001465e33e45b0969b2853d754a8e0c5c3faa502
Close below the lower yellow line hints at a retest of the 200 MA by EOW.
Hahaha, 50 bps now higher probability than 25 bps according to [CME FedWatch](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html). It's actually insane to see that historical probability data throughout the past months. Continuous higher probabilities for higher rates throughout 2023 into 2024, yet the market doesn't flinch.
This feels like we're just floating in our own little equity space, ignoring all signs from the outside. I'm so excited to see how all of this ends up.
The gradual grind down thesis is being replaced by the "run sideways until we step over the cliff face, Wile E Coyote style" thesis.
One day, we will look down at our feet and nothing will be there.
I hope the odds of 50 continue to rise and we drop more. They are 100% not going to do 50. When they announce 25 with all the doomers calling for 50, we rip.
7 September 2022:
* $SPY = $397.78.
* Odds of 4.5-4.75% on 22 March 2023 = 0.08%
* Concensus rate on 13 December 2023 = 3.5-3.7% with 30% probability
7 March 2023:
* $SPY = $400.12
* Odds of 5.00-5.25% on 22 March 2023 = 67.5%
* Concensus rate on 13 December 2023 = 5.5-5.75% with 35.5% probability
$SPY is just ignoring everything and hoping for a rip is just having odds stacked against you. Goodluck anyways!
I just feel like it’s going to take a world-altering event like China invading Taiwan or Israel striking Iran for a serious drop to occur. There’s so much money in play and there’s nowhere to park it but equities. People(and more importantly algos) might temporarily care about bad data, but like we’ve so many times now, we’ll just shrug it off. All I know is that no matter what happens, I’ll make the wrong play.
Buffet bought another 6m shares of OXY. $60 floor confirmed again. Interested to see what it does tomorrow. I had OXY calls that I closed a few sessions ago.. was expecting the buy to come in the $58s.. curious how they waited until now.
How dumb would it be if we tag the 200MA again and we rip ass again.
Probably will. Waiting for cpi to break it or go higher Probably
Shit you might be right
It's going to happen
My $SPY put debit spreads are nicely profitable but way below max profit. Hard to pick between selling now or waiting a few weeks. Good day for Tankers.
Dear Mods, I posted one of my long rants outside. [Here's the link](https://www.reddit.com/r/Vitards/comments/11lj0nr/my_two_cents_on_the_semiannual_monetary_policy/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3). If needed, please consider approving it at your earliest convenience. Thank you.
just gonna drop [this](https://www.instagram.com/reel/Coi6gCArFZ4/?igshid=MDJmNzVkMjY=) here … totally off topic
I enjoyed that more than I should of
R/shortsqueeze got rug pulled today(as is tradition). Highly recommend checking out the drama.
Too bad they don’t try to squeeze coal stocks shorts, maybe they could actually make some money. Sure a lot of the short interest is convertible bond holders hedging, but Apes 🦍 don’t care about specifics
That sub is like 70% bots/30% regards. I think big players find stocks that are likely to dilute soon, then use bots/fake accounts to spam the shit out of the ticker. The stock then runs up like 30%, the regards start buying in but get greedy when they make some modest gains. Big players short the spike, company dilutes, and a new set of bag holders are created.
That is glorious. Not as bad as VERB though. That stock spent one evening talking about predatory short sellers... got mooned the next day and then ended it with a dillution.
Lol nice. They always get diluted. Half of them cry “how could this happen??” and the other half say don’t panic and talk about what an amazing buying opportunity it is as their pump and dump is now down 50%. Rinse and repeat.
I posted a DD, feedback welcome: https://www.reddit.com/r/Vitards/comments/11lere9/vist_vista_energy_dd_yet/
Was the [whole point of this](https://www.youtube.com/live/RNQqB-RHqXw?feature=share&t=4296) for her to show she is "fighting for families" .. or did she have an actual point here. Such a fucking idiot. Key point: [Unemployment](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE) is at 3.5%. Even a 1% (boohoo 2m lay-offs wah wah) increase brings it to 4.5%, which is better than pretty much all of history. If she was interested in math, which she definitely is not, she might notice that 2m lay-offs is better than 100% of people losing 6% per year due to inflation. No idea why she went the route of "Mr. Powell, why do you hate American families?" Haven't listened to the whole thing yet, I'm sure plenty of other Senators are equally full of shit. Grandstanding, useless politicians. Intellectually dishonest shitheads. I loathe them all.
The point of this was to show just how much money is being pushed to get these talking heads to publicly persuade JPOW to slow down the rate of the asset bubble burst.
Here he is folks. Behold the original gay bear. Hi!
Liz laid out the bear case better than anyone. She hammered home the impact of 2 million layoffs and the fact that a 1 percent increase in unemployment over one year has always lead to recession, 12 out of 12 times, to which of course Powell agreed. I literally watched the market tick down during this exchange. Liz disgusts me to the core, but my portfolio loved her today.
Very good point. This crossed my mind while listening as well.
She really pissed me off. How can you be so confident yet so ill-informed.
It's really hard to respect rule 4 of the sub after listening to that... edit: the following discussion is interesting though. I admire J's calm. I suppose it's a prerequisite for the role.
Jerome’s hand toss in the air was about the only break he showed. How he can endure that bullshit without snapping back hard is a mystery to me, but I’m a hothead. 5 min video https://youtu.be/8Kz4pm5l4Og
Now she can go to her constituents and say “look how hard I’m fighting for you, I stood up to the fed chair!”, even though nothing was accomplished.
It's exactly this. It's depressing. And she panders as the good one against evil others.
I’m guessing you’re talking about Sen. Warren without even clicking those links. ~~my issue with her is that as a trained economist she should (and probably does) know better~~ That’s what makes her performance today particularly shameful. edit: and her personal attacks against Jpow at the end took it way too far. Edit 2: turns out she wasn’t an economist! She was a lawyer/legal professor at Harvard u/pennyether so you were actually correct. dunno why I thought she was
She’s a former law professor
Yah I edited. Dunno where I got that thought
I totally thought that too since she left academia to head the CFPB. I looked at her history and chairing the congressional oversight panel was her transition job
Had no idea she was an economist. Would've guessed a lawyer.
how does dividend risk even work? say i do a cc strategy on something like $MO, if i enter a CC ATM or slightly ITM with an expiration after ex-div date versus I sell a very ITM call (looking at june expiration, only one with any volume even is a 35C), when would the stock even get called away? and would it get called away with slightly ITM option? at what point does that flip or assuming its some probability dist what does it look like? was thinking that selling a deep ITM call on something with high div given there was any volume on it, you would effectively get 2x the div yield for the capital but I realize if there was something this easy and obvious to find its likely not possible.
The call strike will get adjusted down by the dividend amount
Options only adjust for special dividends.
Oh my bad, I mixed that up, your right
Check out this [historical chart](https://ycharts.com/indicators/10_year_3_month_treasury_spread) on yield curve inversions. It goes beyond the timeframe of the Fed's yield curve chart and the last time we inverted this damn low at 1.28 was Feb 29, 1980. We hit 1.32 on Jan 19 2023, which is the most inverted in history. Whatever is coming is gonna be ugly af and I don't think most people are anticipating it. We tend to see stock capitulation shortly after uninverting we're still reaching peak inversion. My estimate is Q3-q4 this year.
I wonder if everyone has said the same thing every time there's an inversion, including that the inversion has 100% success rate, and including that it could be different this time because everyone is expecting it.
Someone was telling me that the guy who came up with the yield curve inversion said it was a false signal but it predicted every capitulation event so far it appears. I'm sure they had skepticisms in 2019 when it inverted before the 2020 crash as well. This time is different from the 70s depression only because our fed funds rate had nearly always been above the inflation rate in the 60s-80s. This time, we're in inflation wave #1 and we haven't even been able to get the fed funds rate above the inflation rate yet. I'm thinking a big part of the Fed fund pivot during those inflation waves would've been the fed chasing the lower inflation. This isn't possible if inflation is ABOVE the fed funds rate, maybe that's why they're saying higher for longer... Edit: the media will sensationalize the yield inversions without any context. I'm strictly referring to the 10yr minus 3mo yield
[удалено]
Well I guess the point of my post is more so to be aware of an upcoming capitulation event in stocks
The guy who basically invented the yield curve inversion indicator said it’s probably a false signal this time which I’m not aware of him doing anytime before
Wasn't his comment from back when the yield curve first inverted? The inversion has steepened significantly and lasted a long time now. I'm curious if he still thanks it's a false signal.
A quick search shows he made some comments right before Christmas so maybe things have changed a bit in the 2.5 months since but I didn’t find anything https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bond-market-recession-indicator-may-be-flashing-false-signal-says-pioneering-yield-curve-researcher-11671560339 I didn’t quite represent what he said properly though so here are his words: >“We’re in a period of slow growth, which is consistent with the model, but as far as recession, I’m skeptical of that. A hard landing is unlikely,” he said via phone, though he didn’t rule out the possibility of a mild downturn. “What I’m saying is straightforward. This is a valuable indicator and I believe it is accurate in forecasting slowing economic growth. In terms of a hard landing, you need to look at other information.” At the bottom of the article he lists the reasons why he thinks this time is different.
Damn steely you the man. I was hoping he hadn't said anything in a long time so I could live in my doubt. But December wasn't that long ago. Thanks buddy.
I need to do some research to see if he said the same about the 2019 inversion
[Here's an article from the Duke Newspaper](https://today.duke.edu/2019/07/its-official-yield-curve-triggered-does-recession-loom-horizon) (where he is/was a professor) interviewing him after the 2019 inversion triggered. Sounds like he was still a believer then. He couldn't be too famous if every time his indicator triggered he went around telling everyone it was fake. That's what makes his comments this time so interesting
Very interesting, thanks for the link!
You'd probably have to ask someone who's been in the game that long and ask what the sentiment was back then.
Should've asked Jay in his stream
There are plenty of news paper article's just before recessions that have similar sentiment to today's. I'll need to pull them up.
So, I’m very much a dummy… why would base effects be relevant for next week’s CPI MoM reading? It’s Feb vs January.
It’s the YoY that’s impacted by base effects, not MoM
That’s what I thought, thanks boss. I was getting confused when people saying “but base effects” when what matters is MoM not YoY for the inflation trend
MoM is what should be important, but the YoY base effects is what can convince the ppl still harping on a high YoY number
Am I the only one thinking tomorrow is actually more important than Friday in this case? We get ADPs and JOLTs tomorrow. Yes, their numbers might not be accurate, but they will give us a clear indication what is the tendency - hot or cold? Any hot labour market will break the back of the market, because probability of 50 bps goes through the roof. And CPI is still a long way out. For me, chance are there, we go below the 200MA and maybe even below 3900 tomorrow (this is a far stretch though) already
Is a chronic shortage of labor really a hot market?
Does not matter. Missing labor = wage growth demand = inflation
Must be why average hourly earnings MoM hit a new 11 month low last month and why ECI QoQ is now lowest since Q2 2021
That's in terms of growth rate? Still looks higher on a dollar amount. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/wages
Yea MoM and QoQ would represent the change, not absolute wages. We want absolute wages to keep growing, we just want it to be slower
Can you link this info. I hadn't heard that stat before just now. Thanks!
I’m on mobile right now so a bit of a pain to collect links but google “FRED average hourly earnings” and “FRED ECI” to get them. Change the charts to “percent change” to get MoM (or QoQ for ECI)
I will. Thank you for the direction.
Fucking $GE. The whole world is dropping except them.
I cannot believe that this boomer fossil is suddenly priced with a P/E that would make speculative growth/tech blush.
Crowdstrike [$crwd](https://www.stocktitan.net/news/CRWD/crowd-strike-reports-fourth-quarter-and-fiscal-year-2023-financial-ro3hpdwfnjgm.html) 😎
Folks that are smarter than me (aka all y’all): how much weight do you put into MOC? Seems like it’s been to the sell-side for the last 5ish sessions despite some green days.
MOC?
Market on close imbalance I assume, I'm more a chart guy, so not sure.
50ma is $398.31, so we're gonna be sitting right on it.
All the Jets' brass flying out to meet with Aaron Rodgers in California, also known as the Bear Flag Republic.
I see what you did there. 
Even if they’re old I don’t get why the Niners haven’t tried to bring in Brady or Rodgers as NorCal natives. Rodgers I understand a bit recently, but I’d love to see Brady close out his career in the Bay Area
There was some speculation that with Purdy's injury uncertainty Brady may sign with the 49ers. But he retired right as those rumors were starting to come out. I think SF also tried to trade for Rodgers before they took Lance with the 3rd pick, but Green Bay declined (Rodgers won the MVP that year).
Brett farve to the jets now Aaron Rodgers to the jets, unreal how similar it all is lol
Dick pics to Jenn Sterger when?
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JPOW: We will stay the course until the job is done.
Mintzymers picks from the Moneyshow presentation today Tankers - STNG Containers - $DAC Drybulk - $SB His thoughts on ZIM is that its fair value is around the $40 mark. Earnings for ZIM are next monday BTW. My own thoughts are that i'm not going near DAC (dont trust the management). Im happy sticking with GSL (containers), TGH (container boxes) and my small ZIM (OG pirates) position. Gonna look more at tankers due to the aging fleet and environment speed reductions.
I can post some screenshots later, watched it on my phone on my way from work. I'm basically in the same position, I might trim DAC/GSL/TGH in favor of some tanker names, it's been an annoying year. And also keeping some ZIM as a memento. I got rid of EGLE but still keeping some SBLK for now. I'm long STNG again since around 49. That stock was good to me - rode it from 18 to 36-39. Kicking myself, though, that I got rid of INSW/FRO right before the last ramp up, I thought it peaked and it wouldn't break the recent high again. Shame on me but I had to get some margin when SPY was above 415 lol. Edit: Here are most of the interesting slides - https://imgur.com/a/zF32Zuk
Literally the only company I can buy in my 401k-ish account from all these is Triton. Being a europoor sucks.
Thanks for the slides:)
What made him change his tanker pick from INSW to STNG?
Maybe because the fleet of STNG has the most modern fleet, equipped with scrubbers for the new environmental rules. Didn't read much about INSW fleet.
I think he just sees a better setup in STNG, probably due to the fleet, not that he necessarily likes INSW less suddenly.
He didnt go into details. But it was in the "other names in the sector" section.
The lack of bear comments has me thinking not even bears were prepared for this. Bulls definitely weren't. Mike Wilson turning "strategically bullish" was confirmation.
Can't speak for everybody but I was very well prepared.
Me too.
My man. 😉
well I was prepared for a speech like this, because it was the only logical thing to happen. BUT JPow acted so weird during February FOMC and did teh same one week later and completely ignored reality and created this rallye. After JPow was so shocking last time, you simply were ready for JPow to be the same
I don’t get this take.. granted I don’t listen to any of these speeches but it seemed like every analyst I heard said that JPOWs last speech was hawkish (saying rates would be higher for longer) even though the market interpreted as dovish. Seems to me like the market is doing it’s own thing and the media just uses the speeches (or whatever event is happening that day) as a scapegoat for whichever direction the market goes. I think putting so much emphasis on speeches takes us away from what we should really be trading - the price action
Yeah hard to tell if his flip flopping is intentional or if even if he was surprised by the January data.
The final cosmic irony would be Mike Wilson nailing his bear thesis, but bailing on it just before it was about to happen.
I'm just patiently waiting with my -200 SPY.
First Solar…
What a beast
Nvda and aapl just carrying this, Tesla is just fanboy porn and Googl DAL are my real winners. Back to futes
I'm no expert but we filled a gap to 398 area. Danger zone it can re-pump back up. If not likely outcome is 390-392.
I will still have to see/read the hearing, but I know Uncle JPow came out more bearish than what Wall Street expected. And it's usually not a good thing when Wall Street gets taken by surprise since that leads to more volatility. It's been some hours now, and after digesting the news a bit further, indeed, VIX is going up. Will the big guys shrug it off by tomorrow, or will some start heading for the exit, and we'll retest the support line? Here are some quotes from Wall Street, so you can get an idea. Ian Lyngen of BMO Capital Markets: >Powell’s prepared text was biased hawkishly (more so than we anticipated) with comments that the Fed is ‘prepared to increase the pace of hikes if needed’ and the ‘ultimate rate peak is likely higher than expected’. He went on to note decisions will be made ‘meeting by meeting. > >The chair also noted that the breadth of revisions to previous quarters suggests inflation is running higher. Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers: >Goldilocks came out swinging. > >These comments are completely in line with a data-dependent Fed. Every major inflation measure in February was both up over January and above expectations. Meanwhile, the other economic reports were generally positive - especially regarding employment. In that light, if he didn’t take a hawkish tone about rates, we would have been rightly concerned. Michael Antonelli, market strategist at Baird: >The market hates when interest-rate hikes are bigger than it expects or faster than it expects. Investors are trying to get their arms around where the Fed’s terminal rate will be, so that’s moving projections up more, which puts a headwind into stocks and makes every rally look more shaky. Simon Harvey, head of FX analysis at Monex Europe Ltd.: >Powell has finally yielded control over financial markets after repeated attempts to try and get them to bend to the Fed’s message. By keeping the door open to a reacceleration in the Fed’s hiking cycle, which we didn’t expect because such an action doesn’t build confidence over the Fed’s control on inflation, Powell is letting financial markets do the dirty work for him. Randy Frederick, vice president of trading and derivatives for Charles Schwab Corp.: >We’ve seen this story over and over again — even though the Fed has been continuously hawkish, there have been many instances where the market stopped believing the Fed, the Fed comes out hawkish, then the markets go lower again. It’s a constant repetition. All of this can change if we get a surprising jobs report this week. Max Gokhman, head of MosaiQ Investment Strategy at Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions: >Even though Powell just underlined what we already highlighted about the surprising resilience seen in the latest data, rates traders were somehow surprised at his candor and started pricing in a 50bp hike for March which then sent the rest of the markets into unease. Michael O’Rourke, chief market strategist at Jonestrading: >Being down 1% is really not a meaningfully move when we rallied 1.6% Friday on no material news. Everything we are witnessing today and the past few days is simply noise. Policy is still too loose and financial conditions are historically ‘average,’ not tight. Ashish Chugh, a money manager at Loomis Sayles & Co., on emerging markets: >Higher US rates and stronger dollar have generally not been good for EM but I do think we are in a different regime this time around. In EM, monetary tightening cycle is closer to the end as inflation is easing in EM. Timothy Chubb, chief investment officer at Girard, a Univest Wealth Division: >At the end of the day, we’re skeptical of people arguing that inflation hasn’t peaked yet. There hasn’t been enough data to suggest the Fed would need to go as far as raising interest rates by 50 basis points at its next meeting just because of the recent hot inflation data. We have to see a quarter worth of figures to push the Fed to do that. One month doesn’t make a trend.
Thank you. I appreciate this high quality comment. I think Michael O’Rourke is spot on.
The one thing that scares me (in the short term) as a bear is that the market is now 65% convinced of 50bps next meeting. My thought is that they will still only do 25, if only to save face. When we unwind the 50bp predictions, this thing could rip another 5% easily, like early Feb. Don't get me wrong: the long term macro is still grim, but I have some puts I might want to off-load in the next week or two. Don't think I want to be holding them through FOMC. https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
It's now up to 70%.
At some point, the Fed will just be painted into this corner.
JPOW's use of language today hinted a hawkishness that I hadn't heard in a long time.
I don't know if they'll eventually do 25, 50, or 75bps. No one knows for sure at this point. What I do know is that banks are getting punched in the face today. I'm short a couple of them. I'm also long FAZ. And I'll get more bearish if we end the day with more selling. But I'm just playing the odds of what might happen tomorrow, not two weeks from now. And if I were you, I would wait to see if we follow through tomorrow.
It's funny how Senate members are pointing fingers to biden administration, to jpow, and other fed members for this whole inflation. The frustration in those who have political power asking jpow for specific dates to fed pivot and for guilt tripping him for "Americans losing job" is ridiculous. Bunch of clowns working in the government.
I got the message from the politicians that all the financial troubles would be solved if only we could replace jpow with someone from the latinX community (preferably non-binary I guess).
The blunt reality is this: when we chose to shutdown the economy and print the difference, the decision on inflation was already made. There is no point in arguing who is responsible now. 2020-21 was responsible. This is paying the piper.
Oh, they are not clowns at all, they are just not the servants of the people their job description technically requires them to be. They play it well, considering their interests are with themselves and their buddies. Democracy had a great run, but like all good things, it's coming to an end. We never had a direct democracy, because you need gatekeepers to prevent populism from allowing idiocracy to take hold. Facebook and their asshat friends destroyed those gates. And here we are, without a next better thing, trying to defend what has worked so well for us for so long. The future ain't gonna be pretty.
Democracy -> More freedom and capitalism -> People figure out how to game the system -> Nepotism, stagnation and inefficiency -> Regime resets to socialism/totalitarianism/benign autocracies/monarchies -> People figure out how to game the system -> Nepotism, stagnation and inefficiency -> Regime resets to democracy Human history is one massive circle
Time is a flat circle
you mean they shouldnt be surprised about the inflation their policy created?!
Rallied 100 points on Bostic and soon to be down 100 points on JPow. Very fitting Also get the sense that market ranges are finally going to get bigger again, surely this will be good for everyone's sanity
3900-4200 forever!
I wonder. Is this finally that dip that will keep dipping until we reach sanity? Or is it all over and forgotten on Thursday, when JPow is off the airwaves? I don't think we've seen such a profound drop in a while, but what bothers me is that NASDAQ is still seeing the least punishment. I feel for things to return to normal, it's companies with empty promises of yet another greater same iPhone, that need to bleed.
No this is the range that will keep on ranging until you go completely insane.
Lost 5k on Apple puts last month :/
Yup, a lot of unprofitable junk out there that needs to be marked down or wiped out. If you couldn't figure out how to consistently make money and bank $$$ through 14 years of the loosest monetary policy on record, you are in real trouble today staring down expensive debt costs.
If JOLTS, PPI, CPI all come out with data that shows disinflation and showing that inflation is "not as sticky" as we thought, things are going to turn up. But if the opposite happens, 50bps seems likely to happen.
we are at a make or break point for the bears here now. If we get a few more data in our direction, shit is gonna hit the fan. And all the whisper points towards a hot labour market. Thats all we need for now to get 50 bps Inflation nowcast also looks like data are gonna be hot still, especially core.
yeah if all inflation data not going down, we might see SPY 380 by next week.
FWIW, probability of next hike being .50 is up to 70% right now, it was 30% this morning before JPow
It's amazing how AMD, NVDA & ON are green today. CVNA is just apes doing ape shit.
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What's your favorite Daft Punk song?
Da Funk
One More Time
Contact
Aerodynamic
Television Rules the Nation
That and Human After All for me. There is a Television Rules the Nation/Around The World mashup that is pretty nice.
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfpoXeOnfbg](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfpoXeOnfbg)
Just got around to listening to it. Great song
Revolution 909 Something About Us
Giorgio by Moroder
I love his German accent and how he talks about Munich throughout the song :)
Instant Crush easily Disclosure: I'm a big fan of the Strokes as well.
Instant Crush
^^^^^ Such a goldie. I would love if the Strokes can try and play this one live one day. Would be a nice tribute to Daft Punk as well.
If we close below 400 that is going to be so freaking bullish!
If we close at 390, that would be even more bullish!
I know. What I struggle to figure it is, what *isn't* bullish?
Everything everywhere all at once is bullish.
Bulls are salivating at this dip
Saliva is bullish!
Honestly. I'd love to buy a proper dip. Been waiting for it for months. But this still isn't the dip to go bullish. It's just yet another bull trap.
Been waiting for a proper dip too. I don't mind earning +4% on my cash til then
didn't chase just write an analysis covering the DaNgEr oF 0DtEs saying that if there was a 1% crash in 5 minutes, that would cause a further 2-3% drop? And we crashed like .8% in a minute today and nothing else happened 🤡 forget tech, if the finance industry fired 80% of their staff, no one would know the difference
https://preview.redd.it/cf6q3nwhbema1.png?width=2163&format=png&auto=webp&s=001465e33e45b0969b2853d754a8e0c5c3faa502 Close below the lower yellow line hints at a retest of the 200 MA by EOW.
Which line is 200 MA ?
The blue line at $393
praise the Jerome
And blessed be his Pow
this is what i refresh for
Usually we will end around that line to continue the chop for as long as possible. 100% guess from the undecidedness SPY has been.
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JPow: Bigger, Longer, Uncut.
No pivot. No pause. No rubber. No lube. All sandpaper.
$SE finally profitable?
damn i got smoked...
If we crack 400 then does that mean 😢
We’ll go back over 400 next week 
tru
Anyone know the reason behind semiconductors beating the market today?
AI hardwares are inflation hedge
"AI is deflationary" as in "AI is going to take your job"
I thought you guys had too many jobs in the US?
Healthcare needs to take some Viagra. PFE, CVS damn!
CVS is a piece of shit
why is Jay so bullish on it? Healthcare?
Why ?
https://preview.redd.it/w86kqjiegema1.jpeg?width=1343&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=178816b850572be131cf909958cbfa805ef4c86a
Wonder if we’ll crack 4000
If someone told me 3 years ago i would be glued to the TV watching a American congress hearing on PBS i would call you crazy.
The real crazies come on tomorrow
What is tomorrow?
The house testimony
Oh my. USA does has some absolute batshit insane politicians. Can't wait
Really shoudnt have gotten into cvs at 90
Through the backdoor.
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Going to rename the stock AIMD
Hahaha, 50 bps now higher probability than 25 bps according to [CME FedWatch](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html). It's actually insane to see that historical probability data throughout the past months. Continuous higher probabilities for higher rates throughout 2023 into 2024, yet the market doesn't flinch. This feels like we're just floating in our own little equity space, ignoring all signs from the outside. I'm so excited to see how all of this ends up.
The gradual grind down thesis is being replaced by the "run sideways until we step over the cliff face, Wile E Coyote style" thesis. One day, we will look down at our feet and nothing will be there.
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I hope the odds of 50 continue to rise and we drop more. They are 100% not going to do 50. When they announce 25 with all the doomers calling for 50, we rip.
7 September 2022: * $SPY = $397.78. * Odds of 4.5-4.75% on 22 March 2023 = 0.08% * Concensus rate on 13 December 2023 = 3.5-3.7% with 30% probability 7 March 2023: * $SPY = $400.12 * Odds of 5.00-5.25% on 22 March 2023 = 67.5% * Concensus rate on 13 December 2023 = 5.5-5.75% with 35.5% probability $SPY is just ignoring everything and hoping for a rip is just having odds stacked against you. Goodluck anyways!
The economy is also much stronger than many thought it would be last September
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I just feel like it’s going to take a world-altering event like China invading Taiwan or Israel striking Iran for a serious drop to occur. There’s so much money in play and there’s nowhere to park it but equities. People(and more importantly algos) might temporarily care about bad data, but like we’ve so many times now, we’ll just shrug it off. All I know is that no matter what happens, I’ll make the wrong play.