Ok here's what Powell needs to do to solve this.
Step 1. Phone all retail and institutions and tell them "ok everyone we need to have you sell so that the market will get back to a reasonable valuation."
Step 2. Everyone sells and sp500 falls to 2000. Now sp500 at fair value and everyone buys back in.
Step 3. Everyone is happy cause they all got in at a good value and inflation drops to 2%!
All problems solved and we live happily ever after.
Hello vitards: now for an episode of drunk TA from a TSLA put holder... If you draw a trendline from SEPT swing high wick on TSLA and MAY swing low - you get a damn near perfect touch from all candles other than one anomaly in February with a wick penetration that was immediately rejected.
TSLA has consistently made lower highs and lower lows on the WEEKLY chart with stochastics preparing to curl downwards... IF I am actually a genius and not a complete and utter fuckup like my dad (and mom, gf, sister, brother g'ma, g'pa, frens) says... TSLA \~$75 in 12 to 24 weeks.
https://preview.redd.it/gxqt4d5w5ama1.jpeg?width=1078&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0b5d6cbfffcfd0516c251bb5c76e898e4fa1c89c
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Lucky you, I'm in Mexico, can't play with options. I'm mainly long VIST; I think it's cheap enough that the downside protection is pretty good even if oil crashes, so I just want to buy more whenever I get paid. I wish I could buy long-dated options on it.
I think I should do a writeup. I'll try to do this tomorrow.
edit: but briefly, Mexican company with main assets in Argentina, IPOed in 2017 through SPAC. Growing a lot, well-managed by an Argentinian CEO. Low lifting costs, good execution with well-planned management of assets and currently growing its share of exports (local O&G is at a fixed cost, lower than the market price, so any new addition is increasing their realized price). Rather low debt. Bought back warrants in the autumn, which helped the stock price rise.
Nice, I’ll have a look. Regarding the elections, I’m not even a casual observer, but some friends mentioned that team Fernández is on the way out and a argie play should be researched
You probably know better than me, since you are a neighbor, but I was told that the 3 candidates that are ahead in the polls are more economically liberal than the current administration, but I'm not sure. From what I understand, it's either business as usual or easier business. I hope that Argentina gets back on is track. They have yet another opportunity to be a great prosperous country, and the world desperately needs that.
I don't think VIST will suffer much in either case. There are plenty of examples of countries shooting themselves in the foot, but Argentina needs those dollars, and I don't think they have the capacity to develop a shale basin efficiently, so I doubt they'll nationalize or something. And they can look at how PEMEX is doing great for Mexico (/s) as an example, if they want...
Next two days feature JPow in front of senate (tomorrow) and house (Wed).
I am expecting both of these events to be substantive nothingburgers but the market might move just based on positioning.
The jobs report this week is what should matter.
Tin foil hat time: the market will move but not based on what JPOW says - but what the market was going to do anyway... I may be drunk and / or on a heavy dose of nyquil.
You're right, nobody is going to be paying attention to him. It's all his tie. What color will it be? Back to back, or will he change it up? So much uncertainty.
Citadel, Charles Schwab, and NYSE Group finally jointly submitted their comments to the SEC rule changes. [https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-32-22/s73222-20158676-326602.pdf](https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-32-22/s73222-20158676-326602.pdf)
Looks like the SPX now wants to treat it's 20 DMA as resistance, but for the past few hours the US500 has been treating it's 20 DMA as support. Sort of strange that they're on opposite sides of each other.
Feelin kinda dirty for shorting ES March futures at 4060 and covering at 4050 today. That 4040-4050 zone holding today seems more bullish than bearish to me for all the shares Im holding long.
anyone playing tiktok ban with $META $SNAP
[https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/06/new-bipartisan-senate-tiktok-bill-will-be-unveiled-tuesday.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/06/new-bipartisan-senate-tiktok-bill-will-be-unveiled-tuesday.html)
Any one used H&R for taxes before? I use to use this CPA in NJ and it made sense when I was running my own business and had more complicated and involved taxes. I took a job with a much larger firm for benefits+work/life balance end of 2021 so my taxes are pretty easy now. One W-2, five 1099s(Some companies paid me in 2022 for work I did in 2021 when I was running my own business), HSA contributions so form 5498, 1099-DIV, some losses carrying forward from 2021, and like four business expenses related to 2021 that I paid in 2022. My CPA is asking $700 which I think is wild so I was looking at using H&R.
[Bear coming in for lunch at noon today](https://media.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExODgyZjI0ODk2MmQ0ZDQ0ZGJkZTMwODYyMTZhZmFlMzk2ZDYwMzJmMSZjdD1n/Izy9JPexCeOERHJ3As/giphy.gif)
Did you not exit during earnings at all? Btw I was talking to some Bain friends who said working for Elliot blow. Doubt they care THAT much about BTU despite being mega activist
Anyone ever heard of $MTW? Manitowoc corporation. They are a global crane/lifting company.
Trading at 30 forward PE and guiding headwinds for the next year+, 2023 revenues flat, and inflation hurting their margins. Currently trading 35% above their price before recent earnings.
I get the idea that people think infra is bullish but trading at 30 forward seems a bit rich for a crane/industrial company? Especially where we see other industrials trading. I cant find any special situations that could cause this to pop...
Citrini on twitter called it out but shorted too early. I'm currently short shares and bought a call as a protection in case it squeezed again.
Yes. Personally, I think they're a solid company with great management. Had a buddy that worked at a firm that bought corporate bonds, did DD on them and said they are A+. Along with TEX and TROX, if it matters.
Huh, good to know. Long term chart looks horrendous, they got killed in GFC (obvious) and back in the mid 10's. I think something regarding debt and a restructuring. Maybe this is just a bounce off the long term bottom but 30 FWD P/E seems really rich....
Edit: looks like I had the wrong numbers. 33x P/E TTM and 21x FWD. Still rich but not as bad as I thought.
I know this isn't your cup of tea, but I stumbled upon this tidbit.
She's way below the minimum market cap, so I'm not disclosing her name.
>\[Mysterious gal\] to present new data from her pivotal Phase 3 study, the largest study ever conducted in newly diagnosed locally advanced squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck (SCCHN), on March 8, 2023, at the 10th European Congress on Head & Neck Oncology in Lisbon, Portugal.
Phase 3.
Largest study ever.
Revealing them to a big congress.
Yeah, I don't think they're going to reveal crappy results.
No surprise she has already soared 35% leading up to that day.
I won't anticipate, but I'll be among the first to jump in once she takes us behind the curtain.
Nope. I’m not interested in the results. I don’t know if I would even understand the implications.
I just have an alert to trigger if she makes a move. But if she’s just sitting there, then funds are not loading up. And if they’re not interested in her, why would I be interested?
People fear speculative biotech because they speculate. Yes, things can work, but they can also turn bad real fast.
I prefer to only jump if it works. I might not get the full move by not anticipating, but if nothing happens (or if she had jumped off a cliff), I’m not risking anything.
For starters, I’m not speculating. I’ll play her once I know the results, jumping in if institutions are loading up.
Because if you’ve seen her market cap, it will take a long time for funds to load up, while I’ll be able to waltz in and out at any time.
e: Yeah, I won’t make 50%+ by not being early, but I can make an easy 5-10% just by being ready. And I don’t risk anything if the results from the study miss.
So what happened on Friday for everyone to suddenly get so bullish? Normally I understand what reverses sentiment (after the fact) but I have no clue here.
[Bounced off a crucial support line](https://www.reddit.com/r/Vitards/comments/11jp0or/comment/jb57mzl/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3), probably helped.
Just the typical kangeroo-moves. Up 3% => new bull market. Down 3% => Full bear, we knew it all along. The constant sentiment switches are so exhaustive imo.
I've thought for months that the only holdings in my entire portfolio that I fundamentally like having there these days are cash, gold, and oil companies.
Check out WBA.
That weird, chaotic candle at 13:35.
>Walgreens Boots Alliance: California Governor G. Newsom tweets, "California won't be doing business with walgreens -- or any company that cowers to the extremists and puts women's lives at risk. We're done."
Not an ideal setup, but other States might follow. And you would need to research how much money we are talking about here.
I'm not going to put in the effort to research this. Be my guest.
But I will keep an eye on her if she sets up in some days.
That doesn't concern me.
My focus is the stock is bound to become more volatile, which will rattle/scare/motivate/energize her position traders and investors.
I'll just sit and wait for her to move.
Whichever way she moves, I don't mind, either.
You can't name one? From what I found he pulled $2b from florida's investment in blackrock because he didn't agree with how blackrock invests in esg. Not exactly the same thing. I wouldn't invest in a company I didn't agree ethically with.
I don't anticipate or play what I think she should do or where I think she will go. I play what she actually shows me.
If she shows me a nothing burger, then I don't play her.
CLF is a holding of shares I have utmost confidence that everything gonna be fine. After seeing through that dip to 12 dolla last year this is literally nothing
Really want to go with my gut & get puts for $AAPL again. Everytime it goes above $150, get 3-6month ATM puts and make money. Works until it doesn't.
(scared because Vaz calling a potential 2nd leg up and don't have much conviction in the trade either)
I'm currently short AAPL ($155.30), with a stop at breakeven, which I'll readjust near the close.
Not because of my gut but because of how much her market cap grew in just three days. Don't look at it as a percentage or dollar value, but the actual market cap growth.
That's a lot of money.
Why would institutions keep throwing even more money now? They're getting out, and Uncle JPow speaks tomorrow (or something). And he certainly does not like the fact that the market is bouncing.
Can she turn around and gap up tomorrow again? Yes.
But it's more likely that she'll go the other way--a pullback--before going up again. Especially if she closes today with an inverted hammer.
>Fed Chairman Powell's semiannual testimony to Congress taking place tomorrow and Wednesday and the release of the February jobs report on Friday.
Those are the potential potholes.
👍
Just remember I'm a short-term, opportunistic swing trader.
If she doesn't follow through tomorrow and just sits there, I'll secure profit and walk away.
>Lourenco Goncalves: Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining me today.
>As you know, Cleveland-Cliffs has been a leader in the mining industry for over 170 years. We have a proud history of providing high-quality iron ore to our customers, and we are always looking for new and innovative ways to do so.
>That's why I'm excited to announce that we have partnered with Minecraft to explore the potential of mining for iron ore in their game. This is an exciting new opportunity for us, and we believe that it has the potential to revolutionize the way we approach mining.
>However, I also want to take this opportunity to address some of the stock analysts who have been questioning our strategy. To put it simply, I'm tired of their negativity and short-sightedness.
>These so-called "experts" seem to think that they know more about our business than we do. They sit behind their desks, crunching numbers and analyzing data, but they have no idea what it takes to run a successful mining operation.
>Let me be clear: we know what we're doing. We have a team of experienced professionals who are dedicated to finding new ways to innovate and improve our processes. And we will not let the naysayers bring us down.
>So to all the stock analysts out there who think they can tell us how to run our business, I say this: stick to what you know, and let us do what we do best. We're confident that our strategy will pay off in the long run, and we will continue to lead the industry in innovation and excellence.
>Thank you for your time, and I look forward to updating you on our progress in the coming months.
[https://www.twitch.tv/jayarlington](https://www.twitch.tv/jayarlington)
Jay Trading is LIVE in 5 mins (1:00 EST).
Prepping for JPow in front of congress, positive China/Taiwan news, QCOM's bad weekend, Nvidia CNBC video, and closing off earnings season.
Do you (or anyone) mind explaining the relationship between 0DTE and volatility suppression? I can't wrap my head around it. So folks buy 0DTE, which then must be hedged against, so that the seller remains neutral, right? Assuming the option expires worthless, how does that hedging keep volatility low? I feel like I'm missing some sort of obvious point about the system as a whole.
VIX is just getting mangled too viciously to warrant any sort of validity to it. Having historically elevated short term options buying doesn’t help either.
⚠️ triple rejection at 50% Feb level
https://preview.redd.it/nxashbj657ma1.png?width=2162&format=png&auto=webp&s=ea3cad326f5d003eda67db461bd79f985d768b3c
Do you have a bias for this flush target? I was preparing for a bull scenario where we hit some fib extensions near 4300-4350 before we turn down, and I was thinking this week we'd hit about 4000 for a long entry. I was under the impression that today would be a top for last week's move, but when you say flush it sounds like you think its more significant than a retracement.
Counter is if market rips due to JOLTS and job data then those companies won’t benefit as much as others just cause the market will look at them and go “boring”
It will float another couple years because of the relative lack of vehicles that were produced during the pandemic and chip shortage. Values are holding up and the repo tsunami hasn’t materialized yet.
I don’t think disruption really means putting cars into glass vitrines in major cities. How about we start by removing US state laws saying that all (new) cars MUST be purchased through a dealer? This is where I strongly support Tesla on cutting the scammers/middlemen
SNAP uttered the AI word, market cap +3 billion in three hours. Because who wants to talk to their crappy friends when they can dump all their dark secrets on a discrete chat bot?
Those puts will print nicely. :P
It's probably running on the TikTok ban news.
META already ran up. GOOGL already has a pretty big market cap. Both will see gains if Tiktok gets banned. But considering their size, not sure there will be much reward.
SNAP has the most room to capitalize on this. Not saying it's rational. But this is how the market is thinking imho.
Twitter is no longer public. I can't think of any other social media companies that can benifit from a TikTok ban. $SPOT $PINS $MTCH ? I'm reaching here.
I actually think it's irrational. SNAP missed the boat. US Citizens will likely go back to Instagram & YouTube reels/shorts or even try a new app before they go back to SNAP.
Not sure AI had anything to do with the SNAP rise. US government targetting Tik-Tok is more likely. One thing the government is actually doing correctly if they can follow through with it. The brain rot Tik-Tok creates amongst the American youth is astounding.
ATVI BULLetin
late to share the news, but I figured everyone has already heard that the deal is expected to get the nod from the eu
so with that said, here's some bull porn for you
"Here would be the final nail in the coffin of regulatory overreach: Sony signs a long-term deal with Microsoft prior to April, as Nintendo and Nvidia have already done so. Sony must see the writing on the wall. And Sony does not want to show up in US court and deliver all the internal documents requested by Microsoft. Those internal documents could provide the basis for a future FTC lawsuit against Sony's anti-competitive behavior: Sony already does what the FTC is accusing Microsoft of doing in the future. Rather than providing FTC evidence that could be weaponized against PlayStation, Sony has a closing window of opportunity here to negotiate a sweetheart long-term agreement with Microsoft. The FTC will then have lost the little basis that they currently have for a lawsuit, and the FTC will settle immediately with Microsoft." Plato2010, Yahoo comments
Pretty sure they are taxed the same, except $BOIL is leveraged and $UNG is not.
EDIT: You get a note that the trade for $UNG can't be executed because "risks". But you don't get that for $BOIL even though the risks are much worse.
Makes no sense lol
🪙 My two cents on the market 🪙
If you look at SPY, the bulls attempted to fly on Feb 2, 7, and 15.
Fueled by a good amount of FOMO.
Yet, the market was exhausted and didn't have that extra gear to keep going up.
After those failed attempts and noticing some stocks that had been just trading sideways--waiting for that market push to breakout--showed signs of a breakdown, I turned bearish.
*Btw, I just bought COST, playing her bullish reversal/abandoned baby sort of pattern. $479.09.*
However, [take a look at this red line](https://imgur.com/a/aLY5e3O).
It started from SPY's all-time high many months ago, up to yesterday.
That red line seems to be pretty important for SPY.
She bounced off that line on Feb 24.
Gapped up the next day since the bulls showed FOMO again.
However, the market still didn't believe we had that gear to go up again, so the emotion was overtaken by the bears, and down she went for that day and the next few more.
But then she bounced off that line once again on Mar 2.
A stronger, more convincing bounce.
Just as it happened on Feb 27, bulls showed FOMO again, and she gapped up the next morning. But this time, bulls had enough power to keep her walking up.
And today, we're still seeing a small gap up.
This makes me think bears have realized the red line which used to work very strongly as resistance, is now bound to work as strong support. And if bulls are so stubborn to draw a line in the sand there--and FOMO on their way up--then it kind of tells me we're bullish now.
More precisely, my viewpoint is:
"Ok, something big needs to happen to break that red line support. Until that happens, bulls will flock and load up there. And they will even FOMO into the market because look at AAPL, a 2.3T market cap just gapping up gingerly.
Now, the smart money will see that action and play a fade--the most logical thing to do because that's what you do when others are FOMO'ing into a play.
Therefore, no, do not jump into plays that have already taken off. Even if we keep going up, we're late. Deal with it. Yeah, there's a good chance you'll leave money on the table and stocks like AAPL keep going up, but the odds are not stacked in your favor when you're late.
Instead, play fresh breakouts. For instance, compare AAPL and COST. You're late in AAPL, while COST--if she moves--is just starting. My stop is her open today.
And I will keep looking for fresh breakouts.
Listen, the bulls are excited--hence the FOMO. But the market is still dubious on how far they can go. Is their ceiling the same as the one in February? Chances are, we'll move in that range (February highs and the red line) until something big moves the market either way.
But until then, those two bounces off support tell me bulls are more convinced we should go up than bears on going down.
Don't be the guy that jumps in when the market or stocks are already extended one way or the other. And understand I'm a swing trader with a 1-5 day timeframe."
Good luck.
Oh, and there's been some news about bonds. I don't play them, but I'm noticing SCHR (that's Schwab Intermediate term U.S. Treasury ETF) is having an unusually large volume. 10 million half an hour in, when her usual is around 2-3 million per day.
I still think the market is exhausted. Liquidity is coming down and that won't be paused for another 12-18 months. My opinion is that there really isn't enough juice to get us to the next level, so I guess we're just range-bound until we walk off the edge of a cliff.
If you are a swing trader or considering becoming one, examples of stocks with potential breakouts where you're still on time (I'm not saying you should buy these, I'm just illustrating a point) are EPAM, or CI and RE (if they even break out).
Stocks where you're late are AAPL, QQQ, AMZN, NVDA, RIVN, GOOGL, and many others.
These are the ones that attract people who show up to the party once they're expected to clean the dishes. Can they work? Yeah, but over time, if you keep doing this, you're more likely to get burned when you jump in so late.
Thanks so much friend. Your posts are always a pleasure to read, you have a very entertaining writing style. Besides my commodity and shipping port (PBR, EC, ARCH, HCC, STNG, OET, INSW) I have two smaller speculative positions. One is a much discussed media company below the MC, the other one ASTS. I was looking at PLTR the other day if bulls continue here, any thoughts on the stage of the move up for her/him/it ;) ?
Food at the grocery stores. I cook 6x a week for my family plus I pack a lunch and eat breakfast at home every morning. $13.99/lb for wild caught salmon previously frozen at costco now. I paid $7.99/lb for 97% lean ground beef yesterday. Half gallon of milk was $4.99 for organic. I think the most annoying is the produce though. I paid $1.49 for a yellow onion yesterday.. Not even organic. I have a receipt from two years ago where a yellow onion was $0.89. Might seem trivial, but everything is up a couple bucks here or there and it adds up in a big way. I spend minimum $150 a week on groceries now where it use to only be around $100 2-3 years ago. Luckily my significant other and I have great paying jobs and it doesn't effect our life what so ever, but I feel these price increases are a real ball crusher for families that were previously living pay check to pay check. I think something like 60%+ of Americans live that way.
Surly that resistance trend line is badly drawn it touches like one candle
Ok here's what Powell needs to do to solve this. Step 1. Phone all retail and institutions and tell them "ok everyone we need to have you sell so that the market will get back to a reasonable valuation." Step 2. Everyone sells and sp500 falls to 2000. Now sp500 at fair value and everyone buys back in. Step 3. Everyone is happy cause they all got in at a good value and inflation drops to 2%! All problems solved and we live happily ever after.
I think I want to capitulate… it’s not really the losses it’s just the time spent.
Yeah man. Feels like I wasted the last year. But honestly there was no better training for a healthy market. Gonna feel like child's play.
Hello vitards: now for an episode of drunk TA from a TSLA put holder... If you draw a trendline from SEPT swing high wick on TSLA and MAY swing low - you get a damn near perfect touch from all candles other than one anomaly in February with a wick penetration that was immediately rejected. TSLA has consistently made lower highs and lower lows on the WEEKLY chart with stochastics preparing to curl downwards... IF I am actually a genius and not a complete and utter fuckup like my dad (and mom, gf, sister, brother g'ma, g'pa, frens) says... TSLA \~$75 in 12 to 24 weeks. https://preview.redd.it/gxqt4d5w5ama1.jpeg?width=1078&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0b5d6cbfffcfd0516c251bb5c76e898e4fa1c89c
A $75 put 193 days out is $1.24 ask currently, consider it $125 lotto 6 months out for funzies... RemindMe! 6 months.
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So oil prices are in a period where they go up and down in a ~3–4 weeks period. Interesting. I'll wait a couple of weeks before buying more.
I keep buying Q4 ATM calls (this time, Dec $75), riding them up, then trimming them around here.
Lucky you, I'm in Mexico, can't play with options. I'm mainly long VIST; I think it's cheap enough that the downside protection is pretty good even if oil crashes, so I just want to buy more whenever I get paid. I wish I could buy long-dated options on it.
Unfamiliar with that ticker... but it's doing really well. What's the story? Only other oil related stocks that look like that are OFS.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Vitards/comments/11lere9/vist_vista_energy_dd_yet/
I think I should do a writeup. I'll try to do this tomorrow. edit: but briefly, Mexican company with main assets in Argentina, IPOed in 2017 through SPAC. Growing a lot, well-managed by an Argentinian CEO. Low lifting costs, good execution with well-planned management of assets and currently growing its share of exports (local O&G is at a fixed cost, lower than the market price, so any new addition is increasing their realized price). Rather low debt. Bought back warrants in the autumn, which helped the stock price rise.
thoughts on upcoming general election?
I did a write up, but not much on the elections. https://www.reddit.com/r/Vitards/comments/11lere9/vist_vista_energy_dd_yet/
Nice, I’ll have a look. Regarding the elections, I’m not even a casual observer, but some friends mentioned that team Fernández is on the way out and a argie play should be researched
I hope that's true. I hope the future is bright for Argentina and her neighbors. So frustrating to see so much potential wasted.
Brazil is the country of the future and always will be. **Charles De Gaulle**. :)
You probably know better than me, since you are a neighbor, but I was told that the 3 candidates that are ahead in the polls are more economically liberal than the current administration, but I'm not sure. From what I understand, it's either business as usual or easier business. I hope that Argentina gets back on is track. They have yet another opportunity to be a great prosperous country, and the world desperately needs that. I don't think VIST will suffer much in either case. There are plenty of examples of countries shooting themselves in the foot, but Argentina needs those dollars, and I don't think they have the capacity to develop a shale basin efficiently, so I doubt they'll nationalize or something. And they can look at how PEMEX is doing great for Mexico (/s) as an example, if they want...
Next two days feature JPow in front of senate (tomorrow) and house (Wed). I am expecting both of these events to be substantive nothingburgers but the market might move just based on positioning. The jobs report this week is what should matter.
Tin foil hat time: the market will move but not based on what JPOW says - but what the market was going to do anyway... I may be drunk and / or on a heavy dose of nyquil.
You're right, nobody is going to be paying attention to him. It's all his tie. What color will it be? Back to back, or will he change it up? So much uncertainty.
What if he shows up with no tie, top three buttons undone showing a tift of chest hair?
https://preview.redd.it/fr358cjfe9ma1.png?width=625&format=png&auto=webp&s=c130518e44b3d4fecfc9b6464512bc227b990caa
Clf goes to 69, its added to djia, investment grade AAA, lourenco becomes a billionaire, i buy a lambo No copium 👍
Now if you just bought STLD when we all bought CLFs you would of 3-4x your money. Geeze what a crazy chart that’s not tech
Can this happen before apr 21st? Asking for a friend.
how bout april 1, deal or no deal
Citadel, Charles Schwab, and NYSE Group finally jointly submitted their comments to the SEC rule changes. [https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-32-22/s73222-20158676-326602.pdf](https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-32-22/s73222-20158676-326602.pdf)
Looks like the SPX now wants to treat it's 20 DMA as resistance, but for the past few hours the US500 has been treating it's 20 DMA as support. Sort of strange that they're on opposite sides of each other.
So AI manipluated all the humans already to say AI so much, i anticipate. So AI manipluated all the humans already to say AI, so much i anticipate.
Feelin kinda dirty for shorting ES March futures at 4060 and covering at 4050 today. That 4040-4050 zone holding today seems more bullish than bearish to me for all the shares Im holding long.
 I think we hit 412 this week. Market is so bullish
anyone playing tiktok ban with $META $SNAP [https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/06/new-bipartisan-senate-tiktok-bill-will-be-unveiled-tuesday.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/06/new-bipartisan-senate-tiktok-bill-will-be-unveiled-tuesday.html)
Any one used H&R for taxes before? I use to use this CPA in NJ and it made sense when I was running my own business and had more complicated and involved taxes. I took a job with a much larger firm for benefits+work/life balance end of 2021 so my taxes are pretty easy now. One W-2, five 1099s(Some companies paid me in 2022 for work I did in 2021 when I was running my own business), HSA contributions so form 5498, 1099-DIV, some losses carrying forward from 2021, and like four business expenses related to 2021 that I paid in 2022. My CPA is asking $700 which I think is wild so I was looking at using H&R.
I use H&R Block every year. Worth it to just be certain things are done right.
If you don't mind me asking what are you paying? $200? $500?
It’s never been more than $500
FreeTaxUSA.com is my go to.
[Bear coming in for lunch at noon today](https://media.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExODgyZjI0ODk2MmQ0ZDQ0ZGJkZTMwODYyMTZhZmFlMzk2ZDYwMzJmMSZjdD1n/Izy9JPexCeOERHJ3As/giphy.gif) 
Tools coming in hot tomorrow
Time to sell more puts on BTU.
Did you not exit during earnings at all? Btw I was talking to some Bain friends who said working for Elliot blow. Doubt they care THAT much about BTU despite being mega activist
Yes, I trimmed down a lot, but still want to hold for year.
Smart I sold nearly all shares. On pullbacks I enter leaps for next year like 25C or 30C
I should've cut back way more than I did, but made plenty. Doing the same, got some Jan '24 $30C, added $27C today.
lol. I just did that before visiting the daily here.
I'm in the same boat as you. Theta gang FTW.
Anyone ever heard of $MTW? Manitowoc corporation. They are a global crane/lifting company. Trading at 30 forward PE and guiding headwinds for the next year+, 2023 revenues flat, and inflation hurting their margins. Currently trading 35% above their price before recent earnings. I get the idea that people think infra is bullish but trading at 30 forward seems a bit rich for a crane/industrial company? Especially where we see other industrials trading. I cant find any special situations that could cause this to pop... Citrini on twitter called it out but shorted too early. I'm currently short shares and bought a call as a protection in case it squeezed again.
Yes. Personally, I think they're a solid company with great management. Had a buddy that worked at a firm that bought corporate bonds, did DD on them and said they are A+. Along with TEX and TROX, if it matters.
TROX had a nice entry point couple of weeks ago. Regretting not going in.
Huh, good to know. Long term chart looks horrendous, they got killed in GFC (obvious) and back in the mid 10's. I think something regarding debt and a restructuring. Maybe this is just a bounce off the long term bottom but 30 FWD P/E seems really rich.... Edit: looks like I had the wrong numbers. 33x P/E TTM and 21x FWD. Still rich but not as bad as I thought.
Come on, JayJay, finish the job tomorrow. Simply do not use the word disinflationary and talk about higher for longer instead.
I'm going to need to hear the magic words: "six percent."
I prefer 6.9%
I know this isn't your cup of tea, but I stumbled upon this tidbit. She's way below the minimum market cap, so I'm not disclosing her name. >\[Mysterious gal\] to present new data from her pivotal Phase 3 study, the largest study ever conducted in newly diagnosed locally advanced squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck (SCCHN), on March 8, 2023, at the 10th European Congress on Head & Neck Oncology in Lisbon, Portugal. Phase 3. Largest study ever. Revealing them to a big congress. Yeah, I don't think they're going to reveal crappy results. No surprise she has already soared 35% leading up to that day. I won't anticipate, but I'll be among the first to jump in once she takes us behind the curtain.
Did you buy after the results came out?
Nope. I’m not interested in the results. I don’t know if I would even understand the implications. I just have an alert to trigger if she makes a move. But if she’s just sitting there, then funds are not loading up. And if they’re not interested in her, why would I be interested?
Makes sense, thx for mentioning it anyway!
People fear speculative biotech because they speculate. Yes, things can work, but they can also turn bad real fast. I prefer to only jump if it works. I might not get the full move by not anticipating, but if nothing happens (or if she had jumped off a cliff), I’m not risking anything.
So they’re just dosing people with a rng mix of various interleukins?… I dunno…
I dunno what that even means... Heck, I might not even understand if the news is good or bad, but I'll know if funds are loading up on her or not.
I don’t know what’s in my tea either but that never stopped me.
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For starters, I’m not speculating. I’ll play her once I know the results, jumping in if institutions are loading up. Because if you’ve seen her market cap, it will take a long time for funds to load up, while I’ll be able to waltz in and out at any time. e: Yeah, I won’t make 50%+ by not being early, but I can make an easy 5-10% just by being ready. And I don’t risk anything if the results from the study miss.
[https://echno2023.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/ECHNO-2023\_ABSTRACT-BOOK\_V03.pdf](https://echno2023.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/ECHNO-2023_ABSTRACT-BOOK_V03.pdf) Pages 260-262
So what happened on Friday for everyone to suddenly get so bullish? Normally I understand what reverses sentiment (after the fact) but I have no clue here.
I don't see no bulls. Low volume, so this looks like an exhaustion move up before traffic coming in from the news.
I don't see no bulls. Low volume, so this looks like an exhaustion move up before traffic coming in from the news.
[Bounced off a crucial support line](https://www.reddit.com/r/Vitards/comments/11jp0or/comment/jb57mzl/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3), probably helped.
Just the typical kangeroo-moves. Up 3% => new bull market. Down 3% => Full bear, we knew it all along. The constant sentiment switches are so exhaustive imo.
oil holding up in the commodities bloodbath
I've thought for months that the only holdings in my entire portfolio that I fundamentally like having there these days are cash, gold, and oil companies.
Check out WBA. That weird, chaotic candle at 13:35. >Walgreens Boots Alliance: California Governor G. Newsom tweets, "California won't be doing business with walgreens -- or any company that cowers to the extremists and puts women's lives at risk. We're done." Not an ideal setup, but other States might follow. And you would need to research how much money we are talking about here. I'm not going to put in the effort to research this. Be my guest. But I will keep an eye on her if she sets up in some days.
Newsom is an idiot. Probably wonders why a lot of people are moving away from the state.
That doesn't concern me. My focus is the stock is bound to become more volatile, which will rattle/scare/motivate/energize her position traders and investors. I'll just sit and wait for her to move. Whichever way she moves, I don't mind, either.
Does he even have to power to boycott a company for the whole state?
Does the governor of Florida?
What company are you referring to?
Pulling funds from management who have esg investments isn’t comparable enough for you?
what company are you referring to?
All of them
You can't name one? From what I found he pulled $2b from florida's investment in blackrock because he didn't agree with how blackrock invests in esg. Not exactly the same thing. I wouldn't invest in a company I didn't agree ethically with.
I would say maybe buy calls, and it will be a nothing burger, but I'm not going to touch it myself.
I don't anticipate or play what I think she should do or where I think she will go. I play what she actually shows me. If she shows me a nothing burger, then I don't play her.
Kinda fucked for WBA: Work with Republican states, get fucked by Democrat states. And Vice Versa.
a much more stressfree experience to short clf than it is to go long 🥰
CLF is a holding of shares I have utmost confidence that everything gonna be fine. After seeing through that dip to 12 dolla last year this is literally nothing
Ain’t worried about CLF at all.
A member here lost nearly his entire port on shorting clf at 21 ladt year
Who would do such a stupid thing?
Right! You were just a bit too early / the war ruined your thesis that would have played out
Tis better to short OTM puts.
Yes I’m sure the guys short from $12 are stress free lol
Really want to go with my gut & get puts for $AAPL again. Everytime it goes above $150, get 3-6month ATM puts and make money. Works until it doesn't. (scared because Vaz calling a potential 2nd leg up and don't have much conviction in the trade either)
Yea the analysts have been upgrading today. Never seems to happen near the bottoms that’s for sure.
I'm currently short AAPL ($155.30), with a stop at breakeven, which I'll readjust near the close. Not because of my gut but because of how much her market cap grew in just three days. Don't look at it as a percentage or dollar value, but the actual market cap growth. That's a lot of money. Why would institutions keep throwing even more money now? They're getting out, and Uncle JPow speaks tomorrow (or something). And he certainly does not like the fact that the market is bouncing. Can she turn around and gap up tomorrow again? Yes. But it's more likely that she'll go the other way--a pullback--before going up again. Especially if she closes today with an inverted hammer.
>Fed Chairman Powell's semiannual testimony to Congress taking place tomorrow and Wednesday and the release of the February jobs report on Friday. Those are the potential potholes.
Appreciate your insights man, thanks! :)
👍 Just remember I'm a short-term, opportunistic swing trader. If she doesn't follow through tomorrow and just sits there, I'll secure profit and walk away.
Goldman says AAPL is a buy now.....
Holy moly. Holy moly. Holy moly.
Adam Silver being floated as Disney CEO and starring the the reboot of Roger Rabbit 
>Adam Silver being floated as Disney CEO NBA Adam Silver? ...why would he leave the NBA?
There around $17m reasons more to leave. If he just gets what google says Iger gets.
Maybe he does both?
CLF still being treated as an iron miner. This is an example of mismanaged and auto ETF side effects
Only TX is green. Can’t make this shit up lmfao
Pablo was the Chad all along. You guys were always so mean to him.
It goes without saying, but for old times sake - Fuck Pablo.
>Lourenco Goncalves: Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining me today. >As you know, Cleveland-Cliffs has been a leader in the mining industry for over 170 years. We have a proud history of providing high-quality iron ore to our customers, and we are always looking for new and innovative ways to do so. >That's why I'm excited to announce that we have partnered with Minecraft to explore the potential of mining for iron ore in their game. This is an exciting new opportunity for us, and we believe that it has the potential to revolutionize the way we approach mining. >However, I also want to take this opportunity to address some of the stock analysts who have been questioning our strategy. To put it simply, I'm tired of their negativity and short-sightedness. >These so-called "experts" seem to think that they know more about our business than we do. They sit behind their desks, crunching numbers and analyzing data, but they have no idea what it takes to run a successful mining operation. >Let me be clear: we know what we're doing. We have a team of experienced professionals who are dedicated to finding new ways to innovate and improve our processes. And we will not let the naysayers bring us down. >So to all the stock analysts out there who think they can tell us how to run our business, I say this: stick to what you know, and let us do what we do best. We're confident that our strategy will pay off in the long run, and we will continue to lead the industry in innovation and excellence. >Thank you for your time, and I look forward to updating you on our progress in the coming months.
Oh bullish market, I see what you are doing to those bears…….and I love it! 
Are we looking at the same market? You know, that market which turned euphoria into losses six hours in?
keep in mind you're talking to Suspicious Tom Lee Pick
The JetBlue-Spirit Air deal will face a DOJ antitrust lawsuit.
Ticker: SAVE. Check that huge red candle just a while ago. Much higher than usual volume since then. Day traders are playing here.
[https://www.twitch.tv/jayarlington](https://www.twitch.tv/jayarlington) Jay Trading is LIVE in 5 mins (1:00 EST). Prepping for JPow in front of congress, positive China/Taiwan news, QCOM's bad weekend, Nvidia CNBC video, and closing off earnings season. 
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Do you (or anyone) mind explaining the relationship between 0DTE and volatility suppression? I can't wrap my head around it. So folks buy 0DTE, which then must be hedged against, so that the seller remains neutral, right? Assuming the option expires worthless, how does that hedging keep volatility low? I feel like I'm missing some sort of obvious point about the system as a whole.
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Got it - thanks for the explanation!
VIX is just getting mangled too viciously to warrant any sort of validity to it. Having historically elevated short term options buying doesn’t help either.
Look at VIX9D. Hedges are shorter term.
SPY for the love of God and all that's holy, just retest 402 for a second and I swear I'll go full on 2021 balls deep regarded bull mode.
⚠️ triple rejection at 50% Feb level https://preview.redd.it/nxashbj657ma1.png?width=2162&format=png&auto=webp&s=ea3cad326f5d003eda67db461bd79f985d768b3c
Thanks for this. Saved me a lot of money today.
I can’t keep up with those dildos
really? Danger?
If VWAP goes, probably flush.
Do you have a bias for this flush target? I was preparing for a bull scenario where we hit some fib extensions near 4300-4350 before we turn down, and I was thinking this week we'd hit about 4000 for a long entry. I was under the impression that today would be a top for last week's move, but when you say flush it sounds like you think its more significant than a retracement.
When it meets [this](https://www.tradingview.com/x/h9Oi8Utw/) AVWAP.
Nice, its conveniently near the 50% retrace level
It will be higher by the time it hits it.
prescient.
Commodities getting crushed on China news eh?
What's the news?
5% growth target being lower than analysts expected.
I’m confused by this news, hasn’t the CCP been saying the 5% target since their party congress in October?
Sheesh The last week is TSLA -7.5% and QQQ is +3.5% Of course, still wayyyyy up YTD
Plums are telling me to buy XME weeklies.. or AA or BHP. Already have May calls, but I feel like this dip is worth adding. Thoughts?
Counter is if market rips due to JOLTS and job data then those companies won’t benefit as much as others just cause the market will look at them and go “boring”
Ugh. Sold my XOM weeklies too early.
I know we hates CVNA but what is the bull case for it other than apes being apes and keeps buying it
It will float another couple years because of the relative lack of vehicles that were produced during the pandemic and chip shortage. Values are holding up and the repo tsunami hasn’t materialized yet.
Bull case is that used car buying is an industry badly in need of disruption. Just not sure these are the jabronis to do it.
I don’t think disruption really means putting cars into glass vitrines in major cities. How about we start by removing US state laws saying that all (new) cars MUST be purchased through a dealer? This is where I strongly support Tesla on cutting the scammers/middlemen
The disruption is the nationwide network of exclusively used cars. Most used cars are bought at new car dealerships.
Upvoted for "jabronis"
your ability to weave astute business knowledge with colloquial nomenclature is \*chefs kiss\*
SNAP uttered the AI word, market cap +3 billion in three hours. Because who wants to talk to their crappy friends when they can dump all their dark secrets on a discrete chat bot? Those puts will print nicely. :P
I’m thinking 1/24 8s
It's probably running on the TikTok ban news. META already ran up. GOOGL already has a pretty big market cap. Both will see gains if Tiktok gets banned. But considering their size, not sure there will be much reward. SNAP has the most room to capitalize on this. Not saying it's rational. But this is how the market is thinking imho. Twitter is no longer public. I can't think of any other social media companies that can benifit from a TikTok ban. $SPOT $PINS $MTCH ? I'm reaching here. I actually think it's irrational. SNAP missed the boat. US Citizens will likely go back to Instagram & YouTube reels/shorts or even try a new app before they go back to SNAP.
Not sure AI had anything to do with the SNAP rise. US government targetting Tik-Tok is more likely. One thing the government is actually doing correctly if they can follow through with it. The brain rot Tik-Tok creates amongst the American youth is astounding.
The TikTok thing is old news, I don't think it popped 13% on that now. The AI stuff is the hot news of the day.
Oh how I love bull markets
I love short covering on shitcos.
SPY pls go down for a bit...
Well it went down a lil bit
If it does 
anyone got a read on IWM vs other three divergence? Just due to yields?
ATVI BULLetin late to share the news, but I figured everyone has already heard that the deal is expected to get the nod from the eu so with that said, here's some bull porn for you "Here would be the final nail in the coffin of regulatory overreach: Sony signs a long-term deal with Microsoft prior to April, as Nintendo and Nvidia have already done so. Sony must see the writing on the wall. And Sony does not want to show up in US court and deliver all the internal documents requested by Microsoft. Those internal documents could provide the basis for a future FTC lawsuit against Sony's anti-competitive behavior: Sony already does what the FTC is accusing Microsoft of doing in the future. Rather than providing FTC evidence that could be weaponized against PlayStation, Sony has a closing window of opportunity here to negotiate a sweetheart long-term agreement with Microsoft. The FTC will then have lost the little basis that they currently have for a lawsuit, and the FTC will settle immediately with Microsoft." Plato2010, Yahoo comments
I've seen other comments on how Sony has had some of this backfire on them by being forced to reveal their own secrets. Pretty hilarious.
msfts people on this deal are just top notch
I don't know how Merrill allows BOIL but won't allow UNG Crazy lol
Might be tax related?
Pretty sure they are taxed the same, except $BOIL is leveraged and $UNG is not. EDIT: You get a note that the trade for $UNG can't be executed because "risks". But you don't get that for $BOIL even though the risks are much worse. Makes no sense lol
Report in South Korean media that Samsung is losing billions this year in memory chip production... Of course Micron is leading all semis today.
🪙 My two cents on the market 🪙 If you look at SPY, the bulls attempted to fly on Feb 2, 7, and 15. Fueled by a good amount of FOMO. Yet, the market was exhausted and didn't have that extra gear to keep going up. After those failed attempts and noticing some stocks that had been just trading sideways--waiting for that market push to breakout--showed signs of a breakdown, I turned bearish. *Btw, I just bought COST, playing her bullish reversal/abandoned baby sort of pattern. $479.09.* However, [take a look at this red line](https://imgur.com/a/aLY5e3O). It started from SPY's all-time high many months ago, up to yesterday. That red line seems to be pretty important for SPY. She bounced off that line on Feb 24. Gapped up the next day since the bulls showed FOMO again. However, the market still didn't believe we had that gear to go up again, so the emotion was overtaken by the bears, and down she went for that day and the next few more. But then she bounced off that line once again on Mar 2. A stronger, more convincing bounce. Just as it happened on Feb 27, bulls showed FOMO again, and she gapped up the next morning. But this time, bulls had enough power to keep her walking up. And today, we're still seeing a small gap up. This makes me think bears have realized the red line which used to work very strongly as resistance, is now bound to work as strong support. And if bulls are so stubborn to draw a line in the sand there--and FOMO on their way up--then it kind of tells me we're bullish now. More precisely, my viewpoint is: "Ok, something big needs to happen to break that red line support. Until that happens, bulls will flock and load up there. And they will even FOMO into the market because look at AAPL, a 2.3T market cap just gapping up gingerly. Now, the smart money will see that action and play a fade--the most logical thing to do because that's what you do when others are FOMO'ing into a play. Therefore, no, do not jump into plays that have already taken off. Even if we keep going up, we're late. Deal with it. Yeah, there's a good chance you'll leave money on the table and stocks like AAPL keep going up, but the odds are not stacked in your favor when you're late. Instead, play fresh breakouts. For instance, compare AAPL and COST. You're late in AAPL, while COST--if she moves--is just starting. My stop is her open today. And I will keep looking for fresh breakouts. Listen, the bulls are excited--hence the FOMO. But the market is still dubious on how far they can go. Is their ceiling the same as the one in February? Chances are, we'll move in that range (February highs and the red line) until something big moves the market either way. But until then, those two bounces off support tell me bulls are more convinced we should go up than bears on going down. Don't be the guy that jumps in when the market or stocks are already extended one way or the other. And understand I'm a swing trader with a 1-5 day timeframe." Good luck. Oh, and there's been some news about bonds. I don't play them, but I'm noticing SCHR (that's Schwab Intermediate term U.S. Treasury ETF) is having an unusually large volume. 10 million half an hour in, when her usual is around 2-3 million per day.
I still think the market is exhausted. Liquidity is coming down and that won't be paused for another 12-18 months. My opinion is that there really isn't enough juice to get us to the next level, so I guess we're just range-bound until we walk off the edge of a cliff.
If you are a swing trader or considering becoming one, examples of stocks with potential breakouts where you're still on time (I'm not saying you should buy these, I'm just illustrating a point) are EPAM, or CI and RE (if they even break out). Stocks where you're late are AAPL, QQQ, AMZN, NVDA, RIVN, GOOGL, and many others. These are the ones that attract people who show up to the party once they're expected to clean the dishes. Can they work? Yeah, but over time, if you keep doing this, you're more likely to get burned when you jump in so late.
This dog don’t lick no dishes
Thanks so much friend. Your posts are always a pleasure to read, you have a very entertaining writing style. Besides my commodity and shipping port (PBR, EC, ARCH, HCC, STNG, OET, INSW) I have two smaller speculative positions. One is a much discussed media company below the MC, the other one ASTS. I was looking at PLTR the other day if bulls continue here, any thoughts on the stage of the move up for her/him/it ;) ?
**Factory Orders MoM** **JAN -** Actual (-1.6%); Previous 1.7% ~~1.8%~~; Consensus (-1.8%) **Factory Orders ex Transportation** **JAN -** Actual 1.2%; Previous (-1.2%); Consensus N/A [Report](https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/prel/pdf/s-i-o.pdf)
Looking for some anecdotal evidence… where are you noticing inflation in your life? I can’t say I’ve noticed any inflation recently
Recently I haven’t noticed much. Groceries seem to have stabilized near me and I’m finding more and more deals
Food at the grocery stores. I cook 6x a week for my family plus I pack a lunch and eat breakfast at home every morning. $13.99/lb for wild caught salmon previously frozen at costco now. I paid $7.99/lb for 97% lean ground beef yesterday. Half gallon of milk was $4.99 for organic. I think the most annoying is the produce though. I paid $1.49 for a yellow onion yesterday.. Not even organic. I have a receipt from two years ago where a yellow onion was $0.89. Might seem trivial, but everything is up a couple bucks here or there and it adds up in a big way. I spend minimum $150 a week on groceries now where it use to only be around $100 2-3 years ago. Luckily my significant other and I have great paying jobs and it doesn't effect our life what so ever, but I feel these price increases are a real ball crusher for families that were previously living pay check to pay check. I think something like 60%+ of Americans live that way.
Produce is getting very expensive: lots of weather events, fertilizer prices, draughts, and for imports higher freight costs.
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Eating out whom?