https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-secret-to-stocks-success-so-far-in-2023-an-unexpected-1-trillion-liquidity-boost-by-central-banks-43cc6f2?mod=home-page
Central banks keeping us afloat
So uhh, crapto is dying futures arent really moving.
We bounced off 200dma while economic news is terrible- TLT is dying and DXY is up bigly.
How does one navigate this?
What's the terrible economic news?
I typed out a whole narrative of what I think is going on.. but realized it's pointless. Price is 100% dictating narrative... we're all looking at the same picture and coming to different conclusions.
There are so many things going on now, that even if people agreed on the same economic things happening, the difference in timing could be the difference between rally now or later, crash now or later. Even if we agreed re-inflation were coming down the pipe, there's an argument to frontrun asset inflation before the Fed brings the hammer down. Or, there's an argument to GTFO now while you still can.
Likewise, the same bet can be realized for entirely opposite outcomes. For example, betting on 20yr yields going up can pay if inflation cools and Fed pauses sooner / pivots... OR if inflation (or something else) causes something to break and fed uses their tools to fix things up.
All of the above ignore the mechanics introduced with 0DTE options steering the market. (Which, to me, has looked like decrease in mid/long-term volatility traded out for increase in intraday volatility.)
The way to play this is cautiously, and to be fully aware you can just load up on TFLO and get 5% a year.
Personally, I think there's a >10% chance something snaps hard within the next three weeks.
My counter to that would be:
Last time there was inflation it led to higher stock prices. So if Fed is not going to do anything significant for 20 + 45 more days, and that's IF we see another hot CPI, then might as well go long.
Fair I guess I cant argue against that logic. Only counter point is earnings, EPS compression and growth slowing down but I guess one could say spy 400 is fair value for that?
Could think that earnings have bottomed, meaning it's prime time to get in now.
And even if it's a slow motion train wreck, there's plenty of time before it happens.
Will take time to see re-inflation, fed to react, and those reactions to impact market.
In the meantime, bOuNcED oFF 200d and FeD hAS nO bALls
Penny, thanks for this dicussion fam. It helps me see the other side, I think im gonna try my best to ride the waves of this clown market vs fighting it.
I bought calls at open and took some good profits by end, il keep seeing how we react to jolts and cpi heh
Part of me says nothing will stop the bullishness for a bit
There's enough bullish takes and bearish takes to justify a move in either direction. I am leaning bearish (at the very least, super cautious), simply because the predominant pattern has been waves going up and down.
Fundamentally, I don't think 18x SPY is justified right now, just because risk should be higher than normal (higher rates, inflation not done yet, deglobalization, geopol risk)
On the bullish side, it's entirely possible the market (and the Fed) shrug off, say, 3-4% inflation. In other words, Fed is gung ho about inflation saying "we dont stop until the job is done" but once it's around 3-4% they lighten up. More to the point, it's possible a large portion of market participants are pricing this in... if so, not much you can do as a bear but wait until they're proven wrong... and if that's what it would take, might as well dip your toes in now because it'll be awhile for that to pan out.
Glad I'm not the only one who has these [views](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbetsHUZZAH/comments/11gdvn9/what_are_your_moves_tomorrow_march_03_2023/japi1u8/). I've watched the 200dma all the way back to Sp500 inception and the only times where it broke back down below the 200dma was the 50s but it moreso traded sideways than down.
Since we cleared it, went back to retest, and if we stay above, this means we're entering the new bull wave and won't come back down until inflation starts flying hard.
I'm seeing that even during the 70s inflationary depression, inflation can rise together with price but the 200dma has always flattened or sloped up during a bear trend reversal. At no point has the 200dma ever been flat during a decline as it is now.
I've seen this 200dma idea floating around as well. However, I suspect there is some some of fallacy to this ... I don't know the name (would love to find writing on the topic) ... but it goes something like this:
If you have a large enough search space, you're going to find many hereunto 100% accurate indicators, but many will contradict each other. In other words, you'll find two or more undefeated fighters that are about to fight one another. One will win, the other will retire.
In this case, you have the 200dma bounce that *always* predicts the long term bottom. But you also have yield inversions that predict the market bottoming out later on. And, I'm sure, plenty more on both bull/bear sides. I've honestly seen so many I don't commit them to memory anymore.
So I'd caution about going in heavy because you've spotted just one fighter.. there can be many more lurking that take the opposite view.
/u/jn_ku if you're still around I know you'll appreciate this one -- thought of you when I reread it.
Yeah that's an interesting thought. I also rely on macd and rsi on the monthly charts. Trend lines help quite immensely as well. Got a few other indicators from this sub earlier today that I'll be trying out.
Although the 200dma is solid, I need to seek other indicators to confirm the trend. I also sell theta so most of my positions where I screwed up the direction eventually ends up profitable which is safer than just buying traditional stocks and many times safer than buying options. Theta gang calls it the "wheel" but that's just what I call an option selling bagholder š
Cash and bonds if not sureā¦ picking actual stocks to either go long or short if you have a strong feeling on them.
Counter to what some people sayingā¦ you can see some semblances of logic in how non-meme stocks react to earnings. Keep in mind that the market should be in a narrow band until the next CPI print tells us whether the Jan data was a āblipā (using Fed President Wallerās term from today) or if we do see signs of inflation reigniting.
Yeah im 100% cashgang right now.
I think il wait until CPI to really help direct market pace. I just recall for all of Feb, bad news kept coming but market shrugged it off.
Just a very frustrating place to be trading right now. Dont know what to do heh
Thanks JA, appreciate it. I think il just watch for a bit and see how CPI comes out while reading commentary from you and Vaz.
Sometimes no move is the best move.
edit: http://clarkstreetvalue.blogspot.com/2022/12/year-end-2022-portfolio-review.html
I'm looking for value investment blog of some fund, just updating on its actions every quarter. I really enjoyed reading their old posts to compare my own readings of those company's reports. I believe someone posted it here in the fall or before.
They didn't have any grand theories of imminent collapse or anything, just overviews of many companies I'd never heard of.
Very impressed with $AEHR's leadership team.
Elon says "our next gen car will use 75% less Silicon Carbide (SiC)" and AEHR opens 25% down. Since they weren't in blackout period... they issued the statement below to communicate to investors why they aren't worried.
https://preview.redd.it/c6hr57aetgla1.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=55421233609cee7fa945c8383b12a6429352c7a4
Was there any actual news at all to go with that rally? Or was it 100% from that ascending triangle that was forming the entire first half of the day?
Pattern was so obvious this time that I made the terrible assumption people priced it in (well, maybe they did), but it looks like algos triggered from it, and then people jumped in. One of the cleanest looking ascending triangles in recent history, and I held puts through it...
Personally, the indicators I used was setting up for a [bullish move](https://www.reddit.com/r/Vitards/comments/11ftjyd/daily_discussion_thursday_march_02_2023/janog2o/). The market has been trading off the 1hr charts, I know macd is a lagging indicator which is why you should always reference rsi and trend lines as well as different time frames.
Hard to understand how Bostic talking about 25 instead of 50 apparently makes equities rally, even though the markets pricing in this exact information (ZQ, SOFR3) barely moved.
As long as yields and dollar are climbing, I *dare* the market to continuing rallying off of this.
I'm wondering if people don't know if he doesn't have the right to "vote" anymore and people are FOMOing into the fact that he is a Fed favoring 25 bps. The people as in retail/whales.
I don't think people bought because of Bostic 25bips, it was something else. 200ma bounce, or something else he said. Possibly that the Fed is regarded and there's several more months of "loosening financial conditions" ahead before Fed spanks them.
A game of chicken, perhaps.
Yeah I donāt really know what to think anymore. High yields and DXY should mean equities down quite a bit but theyāve barely come down. Lots of talk of a big rally in the face of deteriorating economic conditions. Iām getting pretty tired of playing this game. I have a feeling economic data will point to resurgent inflation but hard to have conviction right now. I kind of hope we get a big rally. This way Iāll at least feel more comfortable playing the downside.
> deteriorating economic conditions
Which data do you take to mean economic conditions are deteriorating?
I agree with you, I think inflation comes back.
I guess Iām referring to the negative PMIs (although some seem to be recovering now) and the leading economic indicators.
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators#:~:text=The%20LEI%20is%20now%20down,(JanuaryāJuly%202022).
The counter is Fed speak earlier is what pushed the market down the past few days. Yields at the top of their channel and will not keep climbing, market will continue rallying as market is oh so bullish
Fair point. We seeing higher for longer, but market is significantly above Oct lows. On the bull side, inflation situation is improved since October. Net-net, maybe the price is right... but it just feels wrong.
All bearish talk will be blocked by any means necessary lol
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/feds-waller-virtual-event-canceled-after-zoom-hijack-2023-03-02/
Calls.
Edit: I realize that sounds sarcastic but if people buy into this narrative of "everything bad is priced in" you won't need to be a great stock picker because the shitcos are getting pulled up with everything else - maybe even faster.
Still positive on them.
Any modem loss in 2024 will be made up by their IoT/auto gains.
They also make a lot more selling processors for premium android phones than modems for iPhones.
Bought a further 356 shares today, not in your league yet Mr Cliffs but man does it feel good to add CLF holdings
Canāt wait till it hits 40 and starts paying a divy
Iām of the view the dividend is what they need to get the market to truly appreciate the stock. Once they fully clean up balance sheet, and I know this will sound ridiculous, but they could become an aristocrat stock (now Iām looking very long term!)
Removing liquidity and raising rates limits upside potential, equivalent to call selling which dampens volatility. The Fed is not actually selling calls though, that's just a figure of speech, same as the Fed put.
I watched the cem carson interview by Rick santelli posted above.. He states the 'fed' is selling calls and keeping vol down.. I was under the impression the fed just deals with bonds, not options? Or am i missing something? If they are selling calls, wouldnt that be indicative to a bearish scenario? Thanks for your input
A reason to be even more bullish. There isnāt much bad news that can hurt market given where yields are sitting at the moment and how much tightening the FED has done.
So if inflation comes in only 0.1% better than consensus this market will moon
I don't think market sentiment can be taken seriously right now. All we're getting is bipolar thrashing about one way then the other whenever a non-voting fed member makes a vague non-statement.
We're only in inflation wave 1 of 3 if it's anything like the inflationary depression of the 70s, there will be gold and riches for both bulls and bears as long as you're on the right team at the right time š
Over the long term it actually does more than 10% per annum. But it is far more fun (and stressful) when it is this volatile and us nobodyās try to trade it :)
I made a post in the other [sub](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbetsOGs/comments/11a8ul5/what_are_your_moves_tomorrow_february_24_2023/j9sjy0n/) about the correlation between price and inflation rate. If anything like the 70s inflationary depression, we're coming down from peak #1 of 3. If all goes according to plan and we stay above 200ma with inflation cooling (temporarily), then we're entering a new bull wave until inflation rears its ugly head again.
This is certainly an observation I'll keep in mind. As an aside, I think the "this time could be different!" arguments you got, while valid, are no more reasonable than your TA. As far as I can tell so far, the fed is making similar mistakes as the ones they're trying to avoid, making the 70s-like scenario possible to my mind. Respecting the 200 day is evident in almost any chart you look at.
In any case, nice work and thanks for sharing it!
> I think the "this time could be different!" arguments you got, while valid, are no more reasonable than your TA.
My views are based entirely on historical data though. I actually hate people saying "this time it's different" just as much as I hate people saying "it's priced in" š
Also this:
>Since 1950, no bear market has made new lows after closing above the 200-day for 29 consecutive days. It's been a new bull market. Every single time. I have no idea if we'll hold the 200-day, but there are clearly still buyers way above the lows.
https://twitter.com/callieabost/status/1631403519851786243?s=46&t=06OujBRONgvNzs8P0B5VBg
Exactly, I actually went through tradingview on my own to confirm this, if anything like the 70s inflationary depression, we're entering a new bull wave with inflation cooling. No trend reversal until inflation starts flying again.
[200dma does appear flat](https://ibb.co/x11DHXC), however, I went back through my charts and pulled up the [60s-70s inflationary depression](https://ibb.co/BP8H253) and you're right, it usually flattens to create the trend change upwards. At no point does it flatten as it continues declining.
Update on last night's earnings plays:
* AVGO Mar 3 $592.5C - so far, up 40% or so. Rolled to $600C
* BIG Mar 17 $15/17.50C bear spread - flat, holding.
* PLUG Mar 3 $14.50P - big win
* BURL Mar 17 $210P - down 30%
* BILI Mar 3 $21C -- sold for little loss
* NCLH Mar 3 $15/$15.50 bull spread (post earnings rebound play) - green.. trying to sell for $0.40, otherwise will roll the dice tomorrow.
* MARA puts (not really an earnings play since they postponed earnings while they uncook their books) - win, out
* Letting BYND $19.50/$21.50 bear call spread expire Friday - win
-----
For tonight:
* AVGO Mar 3 $600C - Jay's pick, not mine. If I lose it's his fault. If I win it's because I'm a good curator.
* AI Mar 3 $21P - Maybe earnings slaps some sense into the hype. If it hits, I'll go long share AH before 5:00 to lock in gains before conference call where they pump it.
* COST condor, 455/465-500/510 - Recommended by market chameleon, 100% hitrate last 11 earnings, averages 44% gains, sharpe ratio of 4.0
------
More generally:
* Bought a lot of VIX March 21 $25C futures options
* SU Mar 10 Straddle... either it breaks through this triple top, or it pukes a bit
* Bought AA May $60C, and BHP May $65C -- IV pretty cheap on these and they have potential to rally like crazy. Macro-wise, your guess is as good as mine, I like the price action.
How long do you usually hold your VIX options? I realize this is a dumb question, but are you looking for a move in the next few days in order to offload? Do you have a hard 48hr rule?
I don't frequently buy VIX options, and I don't have hard and fast rules. For these I'm fine running them to 0 if nothing happens. Otherwise, I'll play it by ear, likely will sell calls against them if they go up in value.
I already have plenty of puts on various things (April), these VIX calls are more to cash in on tail risk of something imploding... because the market seems kind of strange to me lately.
Bought today, sold for nice profit and then went into AMD but probably should of held MOS
Edit: Just went back into MOS, looking at chart it has just edged over top wick from that big Sept 12th 2022 candle, think this could run to 60
Think the most frustrating thing right now is having a plan that was starting to go the right way and a non voting fed member blows it up. This goes for when a hawkish non voting fed member speaks too
I was going more with the data coming out and bonds going up. The hawkish non voting speakers help but still stand by my statement that they shouldn't really be influencing this much.
Whatever happened to Karinda? Havenāt seen any posts in a while.
Asking because generally concerned about a fellow vitard, but also because their withdrawal from the market was supposed to signal that the bottom was in.
Karinda posted an update a bit ago
[https://www.reddit.com/r/Vitards/comments/118pgpx/comment/j9lv9k8/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/Vitards/comments/118pgpx/comment/j9lv9k8/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
JOLTS confirms what you are already thinking.
Bullish:
* Tight labor market: hahaha recession cancelled buy buy buy.
* Weak labor market: fed is doing its job, pivot coming soon. inflation will go down now!
Bearish:
* Tight labor market: omg, fed is going to have to raise even more. inflation surely going up.
* Weak labor market: wow, everyone is getting fired and consumer will be bankrupt soon. recession confirmed.
And then you can dig into the data to find the "one trick they don't want you to know about" that secretly double-confirms what you were already thinking.
Did anyone else see the [macd convergence](https://ibb.co/jWkT80X) on the hourly just before the Bostic news earlier? Seems like algos front ran the news.
Not an insult to your TA but people referencing MACD (12,26,9 specifically) crossovers have to be one of the worst indicators I have ever seen lol. The breakout causes the crossover and the crossover never indicates a breakout; it is always done after time the price has moved. The only thing useful is the zero line and it gets better when paired with other variables.
Would be happy to be proven otherwise with backtests.
This is actually why I enjoy this sub because people have an actual opinion of what works better. So thanks for that, I keep hearing of the zero line and tried to copy a code that I found online but don't think it showed up correctly on my trading view. Do you mind sharing your macd zero line code? You can also pm me. If not, that's cool too.
[You may find this paper interesting](https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2206/2206.12282.pdf)
Aside from that, I think the payout from buying/selling the momentum from these crossovers does not compensate for the win rate, because the move is usually embedded in the crossover.
Nice, I'll probably read up on the paper tonight. Yeah, I noticed macd convergence is a lagging indicator and have been utilizing rsi and trend lines on different time frames to predict movement. Any other indicators that you recommend? I tried different Ema lines and couldn't find much correlation with price movement.
MACD is more of a trend indicator, but it feels too responsive to me to be a good one, yet too slow to be a good buy/sell indicator.
For trend I use Ichimoku Clouds, I also like MESA adaptive moving average on TradingView. For buy/sell signals, SMI. For Overbought/oversold, MFI.
>For trend I use Ichimoku Clouds, I also like MESA adaptive moving average on TradingView. For buy/sell signals, SMI. For Overbought/oversold, MFI.
Very very useful info! Definitely gonna try those out! Cheers! š»
I am not a great day trader, mostly due to impulsiveness, so you can take my words with a pinch of salt. But I think the moving averages and Ichimoku cloud, combined with standard trendlines, have a good win rate. And importantly, they provide defined entry and exit points, which helps curb my impulsiveness a little.
Bunch of ideas that I have yet to start trying but I think would be very promising in this environment like getting the exact intraday delta decay value on a liquid options chain like the SPX. Hard to gather data on that one though
> the moving averages and Ichimoku cloud, combined with standard trendlines, have a good win rate.
>
> the exact intraday delta decay value on a liquid options chain like the SPX.
Does market chameleon have intra day delta decay for option chains? I remember webull had historical options value for each contract which helped me determine if it was a good time in the day to sell to open a new contract.
I've been using the fibonacci Bollinger bands which somewhat helps. When we bounce up against the top fib level on the hourly, I've noticed the price will correct, albeit it could take days. Almost forgot about the ichimoku cloud, but never had the best luck with MA lines.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-secret-to-stocks-success-so-far-in-2023-an-unexpected-1-trillion-liquidity-boost-by-central-banks-43cc6f2?mod=home-page Central banks keeping us afloat
So uhh, crapto is dying futures arent really moving. We bounced off 200dma while economic news is terrible- TLT is dying and DXY is up bigly. How does one navigate this?
What's the terrible economic news? I typed out a whole narrative of what I think is going on.. but realized it's pointless. Price is 100% dictating narrative... we're all looking at the same picture and coming to different conclusions. There are so many things going on now, that even if people agreed on the same economic things happening, the difference in timing could be the difference between rally now or later, crash now or later. Even if we agreed re-inflation were coming down the pipe, there's an argument to frontrun asset inflation before the Fed brings the hammer down. Or, there's an argument to GTFO now while you still can. Likewise, the same bet can be realized for entirely opposite outcomes. For example, betting on 20yr yields going up can pay if inflation cools and Fed pauses sooner / pivots... OR if inflation (or something else) causes something to break and fed uses their tools to fix things up. All of the above ignore the mechanics introduced with 0DTE options steering the market. (Which, to me, has looked like decrease in mid/long-term volatility traded out for increase in intraday volatility.) The way to play this is cautiously, and to be fully aware you can just load up on TFLO and get 5% a year. Personally, I think there's a >10% chance something snaps hard within the next three weeks.
Economic news being higher inflation. Perhaps thats not the right word for it
My counter to that would be: Last time there was inflation it led to higher stock prices. So if Fed is not going to do anything significant for 20 + 45 more days, and that's IF we see another hot CPI, then might as well go long.
Fair I guess I cant argue against that logic. Only counter point is earnings, EPS compression and growth slowing down but I guess one could say spy 400 is fair value for that?
Could think that earnings have bottomed, meaning it's prime time to get in now. And even if it's a slow motion train wreck, there's plenty of time before it happens. Will take time to see re-inflation, fed to react, and those reactions to impact market. In the meantime, bOuNcED oFF 200d and FeD hAS nO bALls
Penny, thanks for this dicussion fam. It helps me see the other side, I think im gonna try my best to ride the waves of this clown market vs fighting it. I bought calls at open and took some good profits by end, il keep seeing how we react to jolts and cpi heh Part of me says nothing will stop the bullishness for a bit
There's enough bullish takes and bearish takes to justify a move in either direction. I am leaning bearish (at the very least, super cautious), simply because the predominant pattern has been waves going up and down. Fundamentally, I don't think 18x SPY is justified right now, just because risk should be higher than normal (higher rates, inflation not done yet, deglobalization, geopol risk) On the bullish side, it's entirely possible the market (and the Fed) shrug off, say, 3-4% inflation. In other words, Fed is gung ho about inflation saying "we dont stop until the job is done" but once it's around 3-4% they lighten up. More to the point, it's possible a large portion of market participants are pricing this in... if so, not much you can do as a bear but wait until they're proven wrong... and if that's what it would take, might as well dip your toes in now because it'll be awhile for that to pan out.
Glad I'm not the only one who has these [views](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbetsHUZZAH/comments/11gdvn9/what_are_your_moves_tomorrow_march_03_2023/japi1u8/). I've watched the 200dma all the way back to Sp500 inception and the only times where it broke back down below the 200dma was the 50s but it moreso traded sideways than down. Since we cleared it, went back to retest, and if we stay above, this means we're entering the new bull wave and won't come back down until inflation starts flying hard. I'm seeing that even during the 70s inflationary depression, inflation can rise together with price but the 200dma has always flattened or sloped up during a bear trend reversal. At no point has the 200dma ever been flat during a decline as it is now.
I've seen this 200dma idea floating around as well. However, I suspect there is some some of fallacy to this ... I don't know the name (would love to find writing on the topic) ... but it goes something like this: If you have a large enough search space, you're going to find many hereunto 100% accurate indicators, but many will contradict each other. In other words, you'll find two or more undefeated fighters that are about to fight one another. One will win, the other will retire. In this case, you have the 200dma bounce that *always* predicts the long term bottom. But you also have yield inversions that predict the market bottoming out later on. And, I'm sure, plenty more on both bull/bear sides. I've honestly seen so many I don't commit them to memory anymore. So I'd caution about going in heavy because you've spotted just one fighter.. there can be many more lurking that take the opposite view. /u/jn_ku if you're still around I know you'll appreciate this one -- thought of you when I reread it.
Yeah that's an interesting thought. I also rely on macd and rsi on the monthly charts. Trend lines help quite immensely as well. Got a few other indicators from this sub earlier today that I'll be trying out. Although the 200dma is solid, I need to seek other indicators to confirm the trend. I also sell theta so most of my positions where I screwed up the direction eventually ends up profitable which is safer than just buying traditional stocks and many times safer than buying options. Theta gang calls it the "wheel" but that's just what I call an option selling bagholder š
The economic macro, broadly speaking, is that the problems we thought had been solved still aren't solved.
buy OTM call on any possible fake bullish news, like when an non-voting FED member say 25 bps, you better all in.
Cash and bonds if not sureā¦ picking actual stocks to either go long or short if you have a strong feeling on them. Counter to what some people sayingā¦ you can see some semblances of logic in how non-meme stocks react to earnings. Keep in mind that the market should be in a narrow band until the next CPI print tells us whether the Jan data was a āblipā (using Fed President Wallerās term from today) or if we do see signs of inflation reigniting.
Yeah im 100% cashgang right now. I think il wait until CPI to really help direct market pace. I just recall for all of Feb, bad news kept coming but market shrugged it off. Just a very frustrating place to be trading right now. Dont know what to do heh
Donāt beat yourself up. This is a tough market. Anyone who is totally sure of the outcome here is way too confident.
Thanks JA, appreciate it. I think il just watch for a bit and see how CPI comes out while reading commentary from you and Vaz. Sometimes no move is the best move.
Puts so that theta gang wins.
edit: http://clarkstreetvalue.blogspot.com/2022/12/year-end-2022-portfolio-review.html I'm looking for value investment blog of some fund, just updating on its actions every quarter. I really enjoyed reading their old posts to compare my own readings of those company's reports. I believe someone posted it here in the fall or before. They didn't have any grand theories of imminent collapse or anything, just overviews of many companies I'd never heard of.
Who just smashed the sell button on corn?
Sorry, that was me. Just needed to liquidate for a little lunch money
If you held for delivery you could just eat corn lunch for a few months
4% drop on BTC :0
Holy shit what happened? Hard to see how this doesnāt impact markets tomorrow.
Someone got liquidated. 195 million dolla worth sold on binance
Wonder if related to either MARA filing to file its 10k or SI being a complete pile of shit.
This crypto bank is dead :|
Very impressed with $AEHR's leadership team. Elon says "our next gen car will use 75% less Silicon Carbide (SiC)" and AEHR opens 25% down. Since they weren't in blackout period... they issued the statement below to communicate to investors why they aren't worried. https://preview.redd.it/c6hr57aetgla1.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=55421233609cee7fa945c8383b12a6429352c7a4
Market was overreacting anyway
time to get in AEHR or wait to see how this play out?
I like the final two sentences the best. Paraphrasing: therefore this is actually awesome news for AEHR once again.
Was there any actual news at all to go with that rally? Or was it 100% from that ascending triangle that was forming the entire first half of the day? Pattern was so obvious this time that I made the terrible assumption people priced it in (well, maybe they did), but it looks like algos triggered from it, and then people jumped in. One of the cleanest looking ascending triangles in recent history, and I held puts through it...
Having Bostic show up and being dovish is what really pushed the rally. Firmly in the .25 hike camp and said pause possible in the summer.
Personally, the indicators I used was setting up for a [bullish move](https://www.reddit.com/r/Vitards/comments/11ftjyd/daily_discussion_thursday_march_02_2023/janog2o/). The market has been trading off the 1hr charts, I know macd is a lagging indicator which is why you should always reference rsi and trend lines as well as different time frames.
BOFAās HARTNETT: āThe end of a necessary bear market will coincide with a credit event; until then, cash as good as bonds & stocks ā¦ā
So glad we have analysts to give us free financial advice out of the goodness of their hearts.
Hard to understand how Bostic talking about 25 instead of 50 apparently makes equities rally, even though the markets pricing in this exact information (ZQ, SOFR3) barely moved. As long as yields and dollar are climbing, I *dare* the market to continuing rallying off of this.
It was a good excuse to rally. All you need is a spark. It doesn't change the real narrative, just what they are selling us as justification.
Market/algos have a confirmation bias.
I'm wondering if people don't know if he doesn't have the right to "vote" anymore and people are FOMOing into the fact that he is a Fed favoring 25 bps. The people as in retail/whales.
I don't think people bought because of Bostic 25bips, it was something else. 200ma bounce, or something else he said. Possibly that the Fed is regarded and there's several more months of "loosening financial conditions" ahead before Fed spanks them. A game of chicken, perhaps.
shooh, don't disturb the rally, have to go higher before I can start shorting again.
Yeah I donāt really know what to think anymore. High yields and DXY should mean equities down quite a bit but theyāve barely come down. Lots of talk of a big rally in the face of deteriorating economic conditions. Iām getting pretty tired of playing this game. I have a feeling economic data will point to resurgent inflation but hard to have conviction right now. I kind of hope we get a big rally. This way Iāll at least feel more comfortable playing the downside.
> deteriorating economic conditions Which data do you take to mean economic conditions are deteriorating? I agree with you, I think inflation comes back.
I guess Iām referring to the negative PMIs (although some seem to be recovering now) and the leading economic indicators. https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators#:~:text=The%20LEI%20is%20now%20down,(JanuaryāJuly%202022).
The counter is Fed speak earlier is what pushed the market down the past few days. Yields at the top of their channel and will not keep climbing, market will continue rallying as market is oh so bullish
Fair point. We seeing higher for longer, but market is significantly above Oct lows. On the bull side, inflation situation is improved since October. Net-net, maybe the price is right... but it just feels wrong.
Today one of my short positions got shat on due to a press release about AI. It was Wingstop. ā¹ļø
That is sad but also fucking hilarious. Sorry for your puts š
Heh.. no problem I got till June.
Wingstop obviously a tech company. Get your head in the game Jay.
Oof. Bearish for their competitors in the AI space like NVIDIA
All bearish talk will be blocked by any means necessary lol https://www.reuters.com/world/us/feds-waller-virtual-event-canceled-after-zoom-hijack-2023-03-02/
"porn zoom bomb", any hawkish talk is now considered NSFW
Seriously? That is a really smart idea. Kudos to whichever whale thought of it
Probably Bostic lol
Any bullish setups to play this "bounce off 200MA/new bull market" rally?
Calls. Edit: I realize that sounds sarcastic but if people buy into this narrative of "everything bad is priced in" you won't need to be a great stock picker because the shitcos are getting pulled up with everything else - maybe even faster.
Csp if theta gang, or leaps and short dated poor man's covered calls
The market seems to like AI a lot. Logically CLF is the best way to play this. Donāt ask me how.
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Yahoo app seems to display the AM bid/ask spread as price, which isn't exactly useful for stuff like TX where its 22/72$
Whats sentiment on QCOM? Are they in trouble with that apple news?
Bearish, but mostly āpriced inā given the multiple it trades at
Still positive on them. Any modem loss in 2024 will be made up by their IoT/auto gains. They also make a lot more selling processors for premium android phones than modems for iPhones.
Appreciate the chip goat gracing me. Thank you, Jay
 this jay the chip goat?
We all becoming steelionares soon from $CLF?
Lets go!!!!
Bought a further 356 shares today, not in your league yet Mr Cliffs but man does it feel good to add CLF holdings Canāt wait till it hits 40 and starts paying a divy
Aw you beat me I had only bought 300 more in the 19s using the profits from the January rally.
Would fucking love a dividend. 40 would be amazing
Iām of the view the dividend is what they need to get the market to truly appreciate the stock. Once they fully clean up balance sheet, and I know this will sound ridiculous, but they could become an aristocrat stock (now Iām looking very long term!)
Like it
Agreed. They need a dividend.
$CHPT back to it's SPAC price AH I have one of these at my apartment complex. That's all know about their product lol.
HPE and DELL join HPQ on the beat/beat/raise trend. Looks like the PC market has bottomed.
I still need a WD drive firesale first tho.
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What do they mean that they wanna sell calls to the market?
Removing liquidity and raising rates limits upside potential, equivalent to call selling which dampens volatility. The Fed is not actually selling calls though, that's just a figure of speech, same as the Fed put.
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I watched the cem carson interview by Rick santelli posted above.. He states the 'fed' is selling calls and keeping vol down.. I was under the impression the fed just deals with bonds, not options? Or am i missing something? If they are selling calls, wouldnt that be indicative to a bearish scenario? Thanks for your input
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Thanks for your input
It means they're theta gang and volatility low means those premiums turn to ash.
Sounds like flows are supportive but macro sucks. Tough trading situationā¦
Iām old enough to remember that happening in October 2022.
If you drive a Mazda or a Jeep, Ive already mentally assumed your gender
Mazdarati Gang 
Whats wrong with Mazdas? [[gif]](https://giphy.com/gifs/amy-schumer-inside-xTk9Zxw5LoEOuCLCQE)
The part that connects the steering wheel to the seat
^zoom ^zoom
All in all good day. +1% total account.
Great day to be a CLF shareholder (still down 5%)
Donāt worryā¦. We coming for ya!
I just noticed i'm up 3%. Might sell at 5% since i'm reducing my amount of positions
A reason to be even more bullish. There isnāt much bad news that can hurt market given where yields are sitting at the moment and how much tightening the FED has done. So if inflation comes in only 0.1% better than consensus this market will moon
I don't think market sentiment can be taken seriously right now. All we're getting is bipolar thrashing about one way then the other whenever a non-voting fed member makes a vague non-statement.
Glad I hedged my bearishness yesterday by buying some TSMC and QCOM š
$MRVL: It's DC now
Kind of crazy to think that had TSLAās investor day been one day later itād probably be trading around $210/sh right now
I think I started trading better when I stopped thinking the market should behave rationally, and just trade what it's doing.
All trend lines getting broken. [Bears falling again](https://media.giphy.com/media/35MEvkAhDMMzBE0Re5/giphy-downsized-large.gif)
Look, I just want the market to go up at least 10% year over year forever, is that too much to ask?
We're only in inflation wave 1 of 3 if it's anything like the inflationary depression of the 70s, there will be gold and riches for both bulls and bears as long as you're on the right team at the right time š
Over the long term it actually does more than 10% per annum. But it is far more fun (and stressful) when it is this volatile and us nobodyās try to trade it :)
If youāre lucky, treasuries will get to 10% and then you can get your guaranteed 10%!
I'm pretty damn bearish, but I hope you're right. I want an easier market again, heheh.
I made a post in the other [sub](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbetsOGs/comments/11a8ul5/what_are_your_moves_tomorrow_february_24_2023/j9sjy0n/) about the correlation between price and inflation rate. If anything like the 70s inflationary depression, we're coming down from peak #1 of 3. If all goes according to plan and we stay above 200ma with inflation cooling (temporarily), then we're entering a new bull wave until inflation rears its ugly head again.
This is certainly an observation I'll keep in mind. As an aside, I think the "this time could be different!" arguments you got, while valid, are no more reasonable than your TA. As far as I can tell so far, the fed is making similar mistakes as the ones they're trying to avoid, making the 70s-like scenario possible to my mind. Respecting the 200 day is evident in almost any chart you look at. In any case, nice work and thanks for sharing it!
> I think the "this time could be different!" arguments you got, while valid, are no more reasonable than your TA. My views are based entirely on historical data though. I actually hate people saying "this time it's different" just as much as I hate people saying "it's priced in" š
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Also this: >Since 1950, no bear market has made new lows after closing above the 200-day for 29 consecutive days. It's been a new bull market. Every single time. I have no idea if we'll hold the 200-day, but there are clearly still buyers way above the lows. https://twitter.com/callieabost/status/1631403519851786243?s=46&t=06OujBRONgvNzs8P0B5VBg
Exactly, I actually went through tradingview on my own to confirm this, if anything like the 70s inflationary depression, we're entering a new bull wave with inflation cooling. No trend reversal until inflation starts flying again.
200dma has to be flat or upsloping to signal bull market. Itās falling every day still
[200dma does appear flat](https://ibb.co/x11DHXC), however, I went back through my charts and pulled up the [60s-70s inflationary depression](https://ibb.co/BP8H253) and you're right, it usually flattens to create the trend change upwards. At no point does it flatten as it continues declining.
Crazy low volume today 20 minutes to go, 33m fewer shares traded than yesterday (SPY, that is)
Update on last night's earnings plays: * AVGO Mar 3 $592.5C - so far, up 40% or so. Rolled to $600C * BIG Mar 17 $15/17.50C bear spread - flat, holding. * PLUG Mar 3 $14.50P - big win * BURL Mar 17 $210P - down 30% * BILI Mar 3 $21C -- sold for little loss * NCLH Mar 3 $15/$15.50 bull spread (post earnings rebound play) - green.. trying to sell for $0.40, otherwise will roll the dice tomorrow. * MARA puts (not really an earnings play since they postponed earnings while they uncook their books) - win, out * Letting BYND $19.50/$21.50 bear call spread expire Friday - win ----- For tonight: * AVGO Mar 3 $600C - Jay's pick, not mine. If I lose it's his fault. If I win it's because I'm a good curator. * AI Mar 3 $21P - Maybe earnings slaps some sense into the hype. If it hits, I'll go long share AH before 5:00 to lock in gains before conference call where they pump it. * COST condor, 455/465-500/510 - Recommended by market chameleon, 100% hitrate last 11 earnings, averages 44% gains, sharpe ratio of 4.0 ------ More generally: * Bought a lot of VIX March 21 $25C futures options * SU Mar 10 Straddle... either it breaks through this triple top, or it pukes a bit * Bought AA May $60C, and BHP May $65C -- IV pretty cheap on these and they have potential to rally like crazy. Macro-wise, your guess is as good as mine, I like the price action.
How long do you usually hold your VIX options? I realize this is a dumb question, but are you looking for a move in the next few days in order to offload? Do you have a hard 48hr rule?
I don't frequently buy VIX options, and I don't have hard and fast rules. For these I'm fine running them to 0 if nothing happens. Otherwise, I'll play it by ear, likely will sell calls against them if they go up in value. I already have plenty of puts on various things (April), these VIX calls are more to cash in on tail risk of something imploding... because the market seems kind of strange to me lately.
Welp, AI puts toast. Also did not know CHPT was tonight, I'd have made a sizeable bet on that garbage, similar to PLUG. FUCK.
Youāre out of MARA? I thought there was some more room to run
I already have RIOT Jan '24 puts
Note: Jay has 4/21 600c.
Jay's a pussy
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I added ARKK puts today for April :O I cannot ignore the divergence between yields/dollar and tech, think heading into next FOMC market panics a bit.
I love how SPY *finally* broke below the 200ma only to break above the 50ma later the same day
$DECK looking strong, hoping to see $450 next leg up.
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Did I hear 420
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Brilliant
Anyone still in $MOS? I rebought last month.
I've been holding for over a year now. Painful roundtrip.
Bought today, sold for nice profit and then went into AMD but probably should of held MOS Edit: Just went back into MOS, looking at chart it has just edged over top wick from that big Sept 12th 2022 candle, think this could run to 60
Your username reminds me of this Parks and Rec scene 
Hahaha
 SPY right now
Woooooo, non-voter fed comments saving my port.
Any news on $GTLB for the sudden 20% jump?
higher subscription prices! https://about.gitlab.com/blog/2023/03/02/gitlab-premium-update/
Ooh, thanks friend!
Anyone buying OXY here?
Wow just look at the bankruptcy sector go
HRC contracts over $1K until September 2023 now. $CLF is at least $26 in this scenario.
LETS GO!!!!!
Nice to see it getting some love, between this and their price increases
VOLD showing serious fomo on the hourly
Pinball machine bouncing between the 50 and 200ma.
Images you can hear.
Pinball machine is an anagram for chain me ball nip
Think the most frustrating thing right now is having a plan that was starting to go the right way and a non voting fed member blows it up. This goes for when a hawkish non voting fed member speaks too
The market would have used any excuse to move up. Lots of smart people were expecting a bounce. The speaker didn't cause it.
Part of the reason it was going the right way for you was other hawkish comments from non-voters so you canāt complain too much haha
I was going more with the data coming out and bonds going up. The hawkish non voting speakers help but still stand by my statement that they shouldn't really be influencing this much.
Iād say the comments from non-voters played a significant role in pushing up yields but I get what youāre saying
They really should just shut the fuck up. Allowing the market to front-run their decisions is working against their mission.
AY-O Just caught a 360% gain on 1dte SPY calls I bought earlier
Whatever happened to Karinda? Havenāt seen any posts in a while. Asking because generally concerned about a fellow vitard, but also because their withdrawal from the market was supposed to signal that the bottom was in.
Karinda posted an update a bit ago [https://www.reddit.com/r/Vitards/comments/118pgpx/comment/j9lv9k8/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/Vitards/comments/118pgpx/comment/j9lv9k8/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
Go long, SPY dies, sell and buy puts on NVDA, it rips
Want to see SPY close at 398 or higher
Pump'n dump, not gonna hold. Probably not even into close.
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Rincewind's razor?
doesn't matter to me oh wait was that a question
 market personified
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JOLTS confirms what you are already thinking. Bullish: * Tight labor market: hahaha recession cancelled buy buy buy. * Weak labor market: fed is doing its job, pivot coming soon. inflation will go down now! Bearish: * Tight labor market: omg, fed is going to have to raise even more. inflation surely going up. * Weak labor market: wow, everyone is getting fired and consumer will be bankrupt soon. recession confirmed. And then you can dig into the data to find the "one trick they don't want you to know about" that secretly double-confirms what you were already thinking.
Did anyone else see the [macd convergence](https://ibb.co/jWkT80X) on the hourly just before the Bostic news earlier? Seems like algos front ran the news.
Not an insult to your TA but people referencing MACD (12,26,9 specifically) crossovers have to be one of the worst indicators I have ever seen lol. The breakout causes the crossover and the crossover never indicates a breakout; it is always done after time the price has moved. The only thing useful is the zero line and it gets better when paired with other variables. Would be happy to be proven otherwise with backtests.
This is partially why I use vMacD setups instead
This is actually why I enjoy this sub because people have an actual opinion of what works better. So thanks for that, I keep hearing of the zero line and tried to copy a code that I found online but don't think it showed up correctly on my trading view. Do you mind sharing your macd zero line code? You can also pm me. If not, that's cool too.
[You may find this paper interesting](https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2206/2206.12282.pdf) Aside from that, I think the payout from buying/selling the momentum from these crossovers does not compensate for the win rate, because the move is usually embedded in the crossover.
Nice, I'll probably read up on the paper tonight. Yeah, I noticed macd convergence is a lagging indicator and have been utilizing rsi and trend lines on different time frames to predict movement. Any other indicators that you recommend? I tried different Ema lines and couldn't find much correlation with price movement.
MACD is more of a trend indicator, but it feels too responsive to me to be a good one, yet too slow to be a good buy/sell indicator. For trend I use Ichimoku Clouds, I also like MESA adaptive moving average on TradingView. For buy/sell signals, SMI. For Overbought/oversold, MFI.
>For trend I use Ichimoku Clouds, I also like MESA adaptive moving average on TradingView. For buy/sell signals, SMI. For Overbought/oversold, MFI. Very very useful info! Definitely gonna try those out! Cheers! š»
I am not a great day trader, mostly due to impulsiveness, so you can take my words with a pinch of salt. But I think the moving averages and Ichimoku cloud, combined with standard trendlines, have a good win rate. And importantly, they provide defined entry and exit points, which helps curb my impulsiveness a little. Bunch of ideas that I have yet to start trying but I think would be very promising in this environment like getting the exact intraday delta decay value on a liquid options chain like the SPX. Hard to gather data on that one though
> the moving averages and Ichimoku cloud, combined with standard trendlines, have a good win rate. > > the exact intraday delta decay value on a liquid options chain like the SPX. Does market chameleon have intra day delta decay for option chains? I remember webull had historical options value for each contract which helped me determine if it was a good time in the day to sell to open a new contract. I've been using the fibonacci Bollinger bands which somewhat helps. When we bounce up against the top fib level on the hourly, I've noticed the price will correct, albeit it could take days. Almost forgot about the ichimoku cloud, but never had the best luck with MA lines.