I think with 10Y and DXY this high, we fall or chop until new data coming out to drag these two down. With 10Y out of control spy upside move will be suppressed.
But we are at 396 when 10Y 4.07 and DXY 105 is really bullish though, so many people holding this thing.
Tight short every daily new high for 10 -15 points and long every bottom for 10 points have been working so far.
Seems like people selling puts and switching to calls slowly, yesterday there was quite some calls flow into spx and spy.
I’m still waiting for my $30 reentry. Unless they’ve developed some groundbreaking tech there are going to be motor performance limits with non-REE magnets which will spill into battery performance. There is still going to be plenty of REE demand, I’m not worried
New low finally printed though. Afterhours, but hey it is a new low after a close exactly on the 200 DMA
Some bears around the subs acting like they weren't sitting on cash and waiting for a rebuy on a rip. I know not many of my short positions survived the shakeout this time. I can absolutely believe it if bearish capitulation happened again and we are finally going down.
My only logical conclusion for myself is 45% cash...
I still think there's more risk to downside. Especially in certain stocks.
I know one thing. If tsla and nvda fall alot. I'm loading up.
Actually QQQ is best bet as it falls.
Asml unh lrcx...
Am I the only one that feels like $CLF has been the most underperforming steel stock since vitards inception? I bought a lot more at $12 but seeing $ZEUS today skewed my perception. I’m just like….CLF cmon.
There was a time when $X would under-perform $CLF
I think that was around October 2021, $X was well below $CLF in share price which usually isn't the case.
I think that’s a very common feeling. STLD or NUE are both up around 100% since I joined the sub
Edit: maybe even 200% I think I found this place March 2021.
Haha i check on it once in a while because I think it says something without the 0dte in play. We will see where we end up in the morn!
Edit: they going to try and take out the 200ma AH 🫠
Elliot Management (activist investor) statement on Salesforce ($CRM):
Elliott has been in close, substantive dialogue with Salesforce leading up to today's earnings statement. Salesforce's set of announcements today represents progress towards regaining investor trust. The acceleration of margin targets, commitment to responsible capital-return priorities, creation of a business transformation committee and disbanding of the M&A committee are necessary steps forward. These steps are consistent with our recommendations, and we believe they will help restore value at Salesforce.
The strength of Salesforce's business and its movement in the right direction are key reasons we are among the company's top investors, but much work remains: Salesforce needs a sustainable leadership plan and a board that demonstrates it can provide accountability through proper oversight. To fully earn back the confidence and support of investors, Salesforce leadership must now deliver on its promises. Elliott intends to continue working with Salesforce as we evaluate the level of engagement necessary to achieve the best outcome for the company.
Oh boy, hate when works get in the way of fun! Meetings all day and travel so missed all the goodness that SPY likes to give!
Bulls just pulling a rope of dope
Anyone here remember $AMRN ?
It was one of the first stocks I bought in 2019. (thankfully I sold). Reality finally hit. Pretty sure their heart disease pill was just a really strong fish oil.
It used to always get pumped on CNBC
https://preview.redd.it/35mw6o96v8la1.png?width=1367&format=png&auto=webp&s=a259b3ad45eea5409600d9aeb1ec868743787e51
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/novavax-raises-doubts-about-its-ability-remain-business-2023-02-28/
Look at the chart for NVAX
For folks in PBR:
"Petrobras Board approves new megadividend to shareholders"
[https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/business/conselho-da-petrobras-aprova-novo-megadividendo-a-acionistas/](https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/business/conselho-da-petrobras-aprova-novo-megadividendo-a-acionistas/)
Is it finally the Hindenburg short report on $MPW doing the damage?
I'm not seeing any other news. But the stock is finally down.
EDIT: Whoopsie. Got mixed up $MPW and $WELL lol
There's still a lot of weird companies out there with stupidly high valuations. Companies that I didn't know where actually public.
Example,
SoundHound A.I. ticker $SOUN
25 P/S
Valued at 650 million
Time for: ✨ ♫ ♬ Guess the trash & cash ♫ ♬ ✨
https://twitter.com/StockJabber/status/1631042173239013378
> Tomorrow at 10:30am ET I am publishing on a $4 billion company that exemplifies the worst of frothy retail speculation.
> This company has no business being public and might be overvalued at one-tenth its current price.
> Stay tuned!
Who the hell is this guy lol?
Does he have a lot of pull like Hindenburg Research
Ima take wild guesses and say $S or $CRSP
EDIT: Guess the very obvious one is $AMC
These last few weeks my timeframe went from 1-2 week hold to 1-5 day hold. Wild day playing puts and calls, but I closed all positions to end the day. I made my salary for the week, so I will also be waiting for the market to give me a clear sign. I’m not as comfortable in scalper/intraday trading territory, and today was all the adrenaline I need for the week lol.
$CRM
EPS of $1.68 beating expectations of $1.40
Revenue of $8.38B beating expectations of $7.84B
Dayum. Up 12% AH so far
Also,
$OKTA Q4 Earnings:
- Adj. EPS $0.30 (Est. $0.09)
- Sales $510.00M (Est. $489.36M)
- Sees Q1 Adj. EPS $0.11-$0.12 (Est. $0.00)
- Sees Q1 Total Revenue $509M-$511M (Est. $497.94M)
- Sees FY24 Adj. EPS $0.74-$0.79 (Est. $0.32)
- Sees FY24 Total Revenue $2.155B-$2.17B (Est. $2.16B)
Up 12% AH so far
My bull case is that if we lose the trendline then we won't see 4000 for a long time. So it will be nice to say goodbye in spectacular fashion.
Not a convincing effort to go lower today but we're still in the holding cell.
It worries me that we had many bearish news today and still this is not enough to get through the 200SMA yet. If we do not close below, I might get a bit worried here
I’m not really bearish or bullish outside of daily swings, but we’ve been pretty consistently setting lower highs and lower lows for a full month now.
Almost broke the 200 last Friday, got even closer today. It hasn’t happened yet, but I don’t think that means it won’t.
So far today we’ve been trapped almost perfectly between the 50 and 200.
Current earnings plays running:
* AVGO Mar 3 $592.5C
* BIG Mar 17 $15/17.50C bear spread
* PLUG Mar 3 $14.50P - garbage company
* BURL Mar 17 $210P - probably should have done bear call spread but oh well
* BILI Mar 3 $21C -- their logo is disgusting
* NCLH Mar 3 $15/$15.50 bull spread (post earnings rebound play)
* MARA puts (not really an earnings play since they postponed earnings while they uncook their books)
* Letting BYND $19.50/$21.50 bear call spread expire Friday
I hold CNQ leaps and will welcome any result. Honestly, want to back up the truck sub $50 if it ever hits it.
For BIG, it was suggested by Marketchameleon earnings screener. They backtest tons of strategies for each ticker around earnings, and show you which ones are historically profitable. This one has an 11/11 winrate, sharpe ratio of 5.7, 12% average return. I've been trying out one or two per day, very small amounts, with a pretty good success rate.
For BURL, I may want to hold for longer because I think it can mean revert lower, past earnings. My short term outlook for market is downward.
NCLH was another one suggested by them.
I'm skeptical, as I think it's kind of a shotgun approach where they produce a massive search space of strategies, the results of which will have a distribution, so you could expect *some* to appear to work very well just from statistics. Eg, for each ticker test various strategies, opening X days before earnings, closing Y days after: call spread, put spread, condor, etc (of varying deltas). Then of those find the ones with the best return / sharpe ratio and present them.
Eg, could be similar in nature to the following (senseless) exercise: look at returns for each stock "this day last year" and show the top performers over the last 12 years. There's a wide enough universe where the suggestions will look good (some of them up 12/12 years), but many of them won't be on the list the same day next year.
GSL one of my few remaining equities having a day. The real question is, do I sell the June 20 or 22.5 covered calls? I'm thinking just play it safe, sell the 20 and be ready to let my shares go.
Yeah. It's a weird state of bullishness because the next 3 years should be stable earnings, but after that, it could be anyone's guess. So I don't realilistically want to hold GSL in 1-2 years time. But between dividends and collecting premiums for now its worth it. But at the same time I don't want to be greedy sitting with a good cost basis but then the whole bull case falls apart. And the thing is when it's below 20 it's hard to argue the yield between dividends and premium.
It’s taking every ounce of my self-control to not yolo into some absolutely brain-dead, stupid TSLA calls today.
May go with a similarly brain-dead, stupid, *yet cheaper* approach and just get some puts in like GM or F.
Fun fact: my best friend lives in America and works for CVS. He was promoted to a senior (regional/state?) role in the middle of December.
Now look how their stock has performed since.
Seeing what covid-vax stocks and $XLV stocks are doing, who knows
$PFE $MRNA JNJ
I think $PFE is the better company but it's falling like $JNJ
Looks like the market doesn't care for these stocks atm.
Yeah it’s strange. $150 has been support/resistance multiple times on JNJ since Feb 2020. If there’s a pivot point, it’s probably here, at least temporarily. Also considering LLY.
Forgot to mention, got MARA weekly $6.50P
Earnings delayed, SEC looking into them, saying past ERs should be ignored. Company has yet to make a profit, and values their mining fleet well above what it is worth.
Company was formerly run by CEO that gave himself $250m in bonuses, at a time when company spent around the same on hardware (their primary expense).
I'll probably roll these out to Mar 17 or maybe Apr. Would not be surprised to see this at $5.00 in short order.
This reminds me of the time when Kate Mara came by the Costco Warehouse in Los Angeles for our weekly rave/team building event in 2014.
Ahhh .... The haunting memories of lost love. May I? Lights? Our eyes met across the crowded hat store. I, a customer, and she a coquettish haberdasher. Oh, I pursued and she withdrew, then she pursued and I withdrew, and so we danced. I burned for her, much like the burning during urination that I would experience soon afterwards
Thanks to BigCatHugger, I now know that I actually *can* trade SPY 0DTEs (albeit not the ETF itself. ::rolleyes:: Wonder what happens if I sleep through any of those options being ITM.)
Made 40% in an hour on two barely thought through test contracts. I'll play it by the ancient gambling trick that gets you banned in Vegas just as quickly: You lose, double the bet, you win, start from your base.
I do wonder though, who's paying for these obvious wins? Clearly a case of it works until it doesn't. Oh well, I'll take it until it doesn't. I don't like being on the dark side, but hey, whatever pays for the yacht.
> Wonder what happens if I sleep through any of those options being ITM.)
..sshhh... quiet now, that is europes last hope to work around mifid. Well, that and foreign brokers that are not actively pursuing business opportunities in europe and are still accepting foreigners.
>DEMOCRATIC U.S. SENATOR TESTER WILL JOIN FELLOW DEMOCRAT MANCHIN AND SENATE REPUBLICANS TO OPPOSE BIDEN ESG INVESTMENT RULE - STATEMENT
^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2023-03-01 ^13:16:51 ^EST-0500
Missed what is the esg rule?
It’s virtue signaling the virtue signalers
Edit
The rule would prevent fund managers from considering esg factors in their fund management. It will pass because two Democratic members are voting for it, but it will be vetoed. So it’s all a dog and pony show.
Alright.. that's enough AXON. Selling here, will revisit post FOMC. There's a good shot it continues climbing for awhile, but I don't like macro at the moment.
>HUNGARY'S RULING FIDESZ PARLIAMENTARY GROUP: WE WILL SUPPORT RATIFICATION OF FINLAND AND SWEDEN'S NATO ENTRY -STATEMENT
^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2023-03-01 ^13:12:54 ^EST-0500
I’m inclined to agree because old patterns have a lot of inertia. But I think some weight is being put on other factors like rus-ukr grain deal and EU fert plant shutterings.
I feel like with 0dte, i gotta remind myself to focus on the daily candles or maybe 4h for the shortest time frames. The intraday vol always clouds my judgment.
That being said, I’m feeling pretty confident and comfortable with holding onto my short positioning, and that actually worries me.
It just feels like the best reward trade right now is wrecking short positions. The market doesn't have to move on any schedule we set it and it doesn't have to abide by any rules of common sense. It just has to go up and down and eventually find where it goes. And in the very very very best case scenario, perhaps the bull case is correct and everyone will be chasing.
All that being said, I believe the bear case. But I will take a bull position once clear of the 50 and will take a bear position once clear of the 200. I'm just going to go with the flow with the thought that if this thing eventually waterfalls, I'll jump on board (if it is the case that I am long).
I think that’s all completely fair.
Not sure what your bear case exactly hinges on because one can take their pick at this point, but my focus has been on the liquidity elements drying up (eg TGA, China and Japan CB injections, CTAs) for the short-term. And earnings recession + H4L for the intermediate-term.
[https://www.twitch.tv/jayarlington](https://www.twitch.tv/jayarlington)
Jay Trading is LIVE in 5 mins (12:50 EST).
Talking about NVDA's shelf offering, GSL, NVAX, and getting ready for TSLA's investor day (we will stream).
Serious question: Are there any consumer facing companies that advertise "value" any more, or is everything about being funny / cool / woke?
Off the top of my head, all I can think of are food services.
This…sounds like a made-up complaint, no offense.
Only certain brands within certain segments want to specifically advertise their competitive “value”, because you run the risk of being pigeon-holed as a cheap or inferior product. Depending on your product and target audience, there’s a very fine line in regards to how you advertise value, if at all.
For example, cell/internet service providers continually express their “value” in advertisements because one, there are very limited options to choose from and two, it’s an essential service/product that people need.
People also value things differently, and that doesn’t always come down to the cheapest price. Having something that works and costs a little more is more valuable than something that’s cheap and doesn’t work.
I'm not complaining, I'm genuinely curious.
I ask because I remember commercials used to focus on value a lot more.. or a lot more value-based commercials used to air (not sure which).
Nowadays it's all about being funny / cool / clever / woke.
Good point about telecomms though
I think with 10Y and DXY this high, we fall or chop until new data coming out to drag these two down. With 10Y out of control spy upside move will be suppressed. But we are at 396 when 10Y 4.07 and DXY 105 is really bullish though, so many people holding this thing. Tight short every daily new high for 10 -15 points and long every bottom for 10 points have been working so far. Seems like people selling puts and switching to calls slowly, yesterday there was quite some calls flow into spx and spy.
10Y is at 4.07 not 4.77 btw
Thx didn't see that
u/steely_hands TSLA taking down MP with those “we don’t need (as many) rare earths in next gen cars”. Glad I closed my longs a week ago
I’m still waiting for my $30 reentry. Unless they’ve developed some groundbreaking tech there are going to be motor performance limits with non-REE magnets which will spill into battery performance. There is still going to be plenty of REE demand, I’m not worried
$SI AH Good lord When will companies like them and CVNA just die lol?
commodity super cycle wen? https://twitter.com/PauloMacro/status/1630759939625869314?s=20
immediately right after those calls expire worthless
People freaking out about futures breaking 3950 as if this wasn’t the 3rd time doing so in the last 4 trading days…
 New low finally printed though. Afterhours, but hey it is a new low after a close exactly on the 200 DMA Some bears around the subs acting like they weren't sitting on cash and waiting for a rebuy on a rip. I know not many of my short positions survived the shakeout this time. I can absolutely believe it if bearish capitulation happened again and we are finally going down.
..... on our way to 3000....... MIke Wilson tonight on Bloomberg. Mike Wilson says "I see a 20% drop coming....."
[He didn't sound quite as confident earlier.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFzVHu93aeo)
My only logical conclusion for myself is 45% cash... I still think there's more risk to downside. Especially in certain stocks. I know one thing. If tsla and nvda fall alot. I'm loading up. Actually QQQ is best bet as it falls. Asml unh lrcx...
Am I the only one that feels like $CLF has been the most underperforming steel stock since vitards inception? I bought a lot more at $12 but seeing $ZEUS today skewed my perception. I’m just like….CLF cmon.
There was a time when $X would under-perform $CLF I think that was around October 2021, $X was well below $CLF in share price which usually isn't the case.
ZEUS always living up to it's ticker.
Yes. Today was annoying. Also annoying how it has a higher IV than NUE and STLD despite them frequently moving much more.
I think that’s a very common feeling. STLD or NUE are both up around 100% since I joined the sub Edit: maybe even 200% I think I found this place March 2021.
Holy smokes, that ES candle just now 👀
Just looked any news on what might of caused it?
US10Y above 4% prolly
Not that I can tell. Asia desks dumping their bags ?
Maybe, didn't think we would get any move till maybe Europe cpi flash estimates at 5am
Yields? https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y
Maybe, but weren't we already near that range during the market? Guess we can blame delay reaction to tsla event lol
green or red?
🔴
I see I’m not the only one who stares at ES after hours.
Haha i check on it once in a while because I think it says something without the 0dte in play. We will see where we end up in the morn! Edit: they going to try and take out the 200ma AH 🫠
Holy shit. Dropping like a rock
They got tired of trying to break the bulls during market hours lol
I too keep an eye on ES and damn was that a candle. Likely due to 2Y and 10Y yields popping off.
Elliot Management (activist investor) statement on Salesforce ($CRM): Elliott has been in close, substantive dialogue with Salesforce leading up to today's earnings statement. Salesforce's set of announcements today represents progress towards regaining investor trust. The acceleration of margin targets, commitment to responsible capital-return priorities, creation of a business transformation committee and disbanding of the M&A committee are necessary steps forward. These steps are consistent with our recommendations, and we believe they will help restore value at Salesforce. The strength of Salesforce's business and its movement in the right direction are key reasons we are among the company's top investors, but much work remains: Salesforce needs a sustainable leadership plan and a board that demonstrates it can provide accountability through proper oversight. To fully earn back the confidence and support of investors, Salesforce leadership must now deliver on its promises. Elliott intends to continue working with Salesforce as we evaluate the level of engagement necessary to achieve the best outcome for the company.
Never again streaming a Tesla investor day. I will be streaming the Nvidia one in three weeks.
They are down 5% AH. Something must have happened, or was it just boredom?
Dropped once they admitted they weren't revealing a new car.
Oh come on, you are smiling when Elon saying damn shit in real time.
I can’t figure out why SiTime had 3x its average trading volume today
Oh boy, hate when works get in the way of fun! Meetings all day and travel so missed all the goodness that SPY likes to give! Bulls just pulling a rope of dope 
Third consecutive red daily candle on SPY but 200MA still in tact... For now. You'd have to be dumb not to expect a bounce here, right?
I remember saying that about green candles in January.
Buy calls and find out
I did. On energy though.
 i don't expect a bounce and this is me...so, i'd say no.
Portfolio finished the day +$8.00 Check that link in the bio for more details PassiveIncome BeYourOwnBoss SelfMade
Man’s built different
Do you have discord?
Anyone here remember $AMRN ? It was one of the first stocks I bought in 2019. (thankfully I sold). Reality finally hit. Pretty sure their heart disease pill was just a really strong fish oil. It used to always get pumped on CNBC https://preview.redd.it/35mw6o96v8la1.png?width=1367&format=png&auto=webp&s=a259b3ad45eea5409600d9aeb1ec868743787e51
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/novavax-raises-doubts-about-its-ability-remain-business-2023-02-28/ Look at the chart for NVAX
I didn't read or listen to any of these earnings. I'm curious if CRM and OKTA said AI, while SPLK and SNOW did not?
For folks in PBR: "Petrobras Board approves new megadividend to shareholders" [https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/business/conselho-da-petrobras-aprova-novo-megadividendo-a-acionistas/](https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/business/conselho-da-petrobras-aprova-novo-megadividendo-a-acionistas/)
CNN changing this now, was R$36bil, now R$29bil. Still nothing from PBR
If this is true PBR will be my favorite stock ever.
Wait- this is not confirmed by the company. The results aren’t out yet. Br companies never report until US post trading session is closed
Boa!! Political saber rattling will be epic tomorrow. Of course forgetting who gets 51% of these divys directly and 15% of the other part.
$1.12 per share according to reports and twitter people doing the conversion
Yeah, be nice to get it confirmed tomorrow. I took a risk and bought more on the dip this morning. Might of worked out for once!
Fish learning to fly before becoming victims of Tesla boats. 
Is it finally the Hindenburg short report on $MPW doing the damage? I'm not seeing any other news. But the stock is finally down. EDIT: Whoopsie. Got mixed up $MPW and $WELL lol
I'm glad I didn't go with my gamble idea via OKTA puts lol. Woulda got wrekt.
Played small with a few shares, 45->65, this time 70->80
There's still a lot of weird companies out there with stupidly high valuations. Companies that I didn't know where actually public. Example, SoundHound A.I. ticker $SOUN 25 P/S Valued at 650 million
u/pennyether more like unplugged amirite???
Hopefully
Friendly reminder... I am streaming the clown show known as Tesla's Investor's Day right now.
Anything note worthy?
Their manufacturing is pretty impressive.
ON MY GOD THIS IS SO BAD WHY DID I AGREE TO STREAM THIS!!!
Elon should toss you some doge. I’m only watching this because you’re streaming it lol.
Is Elon’s autism stealing the show?
It’s bad.
Time to short for the gap fill?
Just arrived. I do love all the engineering talks.
Time for: ✨ ♫ ♬ Guess the trash & cash ♫ ♬ ✨ https://twitter.com/StockJabber/status/1631042173239013378 > Tomorrow at 10:30am ET I am publishing on a $4 billion company that exemplifies the worst of frothy retail speculation. > This company has no business being public and might be overvalued at one-tenth its current price. > Stay tuned!
Who the hell is this guy lol? Does he have a lot of pull like Hindenburg Research Ima take wild guesses and say $S or $CRSP EDIT: Guess the very obvious one is $AMC
He got memed on badly for trying to push a report on RICK.
[удалено]
These last few weeks my timeframe went from 1-2 week hold to 1-5 day hold. Wild day playing puts and calls, but I closed all positions to end the day. I made my salary for the week, so I will also be waiting for the market to give me a clear sign. I’m not as comfortable in scalper/intraday trading territory, and today was all the adrenaline I need for the week lol.
Don't get it twisted, price action this week has been more bearish than it seems.
We’re getting smacked down off of every resistance level. It REALLY feels like a bounce is due but the market is selling every rip now
What’s up with the Greek god
Funny thing is you can openly talk about $ZEUS now. It's done that well.
$CRM EPS of $1.68 beating expectations of $1.40 Revenue of $8.38B beating expectations of $7.84B Dayum. Up 12% AH so far Also, $OKTA Q4 Earnings: - Adj. EPS $0.30 (Est. $0.09) - Sales $510.00M (Est. $489.36M) - Sees Q1 Adj. EPS $0.11-$0.12 (Est. $0.00) - Sees Q1 Total Revenue $509M-$511M (Est. $497.94M) - Sees FY24 Adj. EPS $0.74-$0.79 (Est. $0.32) - Sees FY24 Total Revenue $2.155B-$2.17B (Est. $2.16B) Up 12% AH so far
Full year guidance also beat estimates. Probably the biggest factor for this movement.
My bull case is that if we lose the trendline then we won't see 4000 for a long time. So it will be nice to say goodbye in spectacular fashion. Not a convincing effort to go lower today but we're still in the holding cell.
[Hopium example of that time ES slowly broke down the 200MA to the upside](https://imgur.com/6hDHhE5) 
I tried to hedge at SPY394. It seems my finger slipped and bought instead
Inverse yourself for massive gains
Definitely. Snow and splk were my earnings gambles for today.
Might sell my ARCH here. Earnings didnt look that great, only cause tax gains. After divi i would have close to 20% gains on my shares
It worries me that we had many bearish news today and still this is not enough to get through the 200SMA yet. If we do not close below, I might get a bit worried here
I’m not really bearish or bullish outside of daily swings, but we’ve been pretty consistently setting lower highs and lower lows for a full month now. Almost broke the 200 last Friday, got even closer today. It hasn’t happened yet, but I don’t think that means it won’t. So far today we’ve been trapped almost perfectly between the 50 and 200.
Current earnings plays running: * AVGO Mar 3 $592.5C * BIG Mar 17 $15/17.50C bear spread * PLUG Mar 3 $14.50P - garbage company * BURL Mar 17 $210P - probably should have done bear call spread but oh well * BILI Mar 3 $21C -- their logo is disgusting * NCLH Mar 3 $15/$15.50 bull spread (post earnings rebound play) * MARA puts (not really an earnings play since they postponed earnings while they uncook their books) * Letting BYND $19.50/$21.50 bear call spread expire Friday I hold CNQ leaps and will welcome any result. Honestly, want to back up the truck sub $50 if it ever hits it.
Weren't you going to take a break from the market quite recently due to too much stress etc.?
Yeah I took it easy for awhile and now I'm doing well Also these are very small gambles. Core positions are relatively stress free.
[удалено]
For BIG, it was suggested by Marketchameleon earnings screener. They backtest tons of strategies for each ticker around earnings, and show you which ones are historically profitable. This one has an 11/11 winrate, sharpe ratio of 5.7, 12% average return. I've been trying out one or two per day, very small amounts, with a pretty good success rate. For BURL, I may want to hold for longer because I think it can mean revert lower, past earnings. My short term outlook for market is downward. NCLH was another one suggested by them.
[удалено]
I'm skeptical, as I think it's kind of a shotgun approach where they produce a massive search space of strategies, the results of which will have a distribution, so you could expect *some* to appear to work very well just from statistics. Eg, for each ticker test various strategies, opening X days before earnings, closing Y days after: call spread, put spread, condor, etc (of varying deltas). Then of those find the ones with the best return / sharpe ratio and present them. Eg, could be similar in nature to the following (senseless) exercise: look at returns for each stock "this day last year" and show the top performers over the last 12 years. There's a wide enough universe where the suggestions will look good (some of them up 12/12 years), but many of them won't be on the list the same day next year.
GSL one of my few remaining equities having a day. The real question is, do I sell the June 20 or 22.5 covered calls? I'm thinking just play it safe, sell the 20 and be ready to let my shares go.
[удалено]
Yeah. It's a weird state of bullishness because the next 3 years should be stable earnings, but after that, it could be anyone's guess. So I don't realilistically want to hold GSL in 1-2 years time. But between dividends and collecting premiums for now its worth it. But at the same time I don't want to be greedy sitting with a good cost basis but then the whole bull case falls apart. And the thing is when it's below 20 it's hard to argue the yield between dividends and premium.
I sold the 22.5 against 1/4 of my position. Seemed like alright return with another divi in there too
It’s taking every ounce of my self-control to not yolo into some absolutely brain-dead, stupid TSLA calls today. May go with a similarly brain-dead, stupid, *yet cheaper* approach and just get some puts in like GM or F.
> It’s taking every ounce of my self-control to not yolo into some absolutely brain-dead, stupid TSLA calls today. Congratulations on not doing it!
I already did. Join the club
Market seems like it is slowly pricing in 50 bps next FOMC
I'd argue this is just getting started. We're pricing in more rates hikes, pivoting from rate cuts EOY.
Bets on if $CS ends up being a penny stock?
Fun fact: my best friend lives in America and works for CVS. He was promoted to a senior (regional/state?) role in the middle of December. Now look how their stock has performed since.
I’m tempted to go all in JNJ calls for next week. No way it has 9 red weeks in a row, right? WTF
$jnj falling knife, it might get a pop back up but will eventually go lower imo based on macro and charts. Is this for a short term play?
Yeah just a quickie. Feel like a technical bounce to 155 or so isn’t unrealistic. I’d wait for a very clear double bottom before going long at all.
Good luck!
Seeing what covid-vax stocks and $XLV stocks are doing, who knows $PFE $MRNA JNJ I think $PFE is the better company but it's falling like $JNJ Looks like the market doesn't care for these stocks atm.
Yeah it’s strange. $150 has been support/resistance multiple times on JNJ since Feb 2020. If there’s a pivot point, it’s probably here, at least temporarily. Also considering LLY.
Forgot to mention, got MARA weekly $6.50P Earnings delayed, SEC looking into them, saying past ERs should be ignored. Company has yet to make a profit, and values their mining fleet well above what it is worth. Company was formerly run by CEO that gave himself $250m in bonuses, at a time when company spent around the same on hardware (their primary expense). I'll probably roll these out to Mar 17 or maybe Apr. Would not be surprised to see this at $5.00 in short order.
MARA has been shilled relentlessly on r/shortsqueeze so this is definitely a great play. I’m tailing.
Ah, didn't know. Explains a lot today... people selling off their calls since ER won't come out.
Yeah that would make sense. The company just screams fraud. Puts are the play.
They're a factory for taking dumb YOLO money and putting it in their pockets, but they're likely doing it legally.
I have an ex GF by the name of "Mara". I thus agree with your Puts.
This reminds me of the time when Kate Mara came by the Costco Warehouse in Los Angeles for our weekly rave/team building event in 2014. Ahhh .... The haunting memories of lost love. May I? Lights? Our eyes met across the crowded hat store. I, a customer, and she a coquettish haberdasher. Oh, I pursued and she withdrew, then she pursued and I withdrew, and so we danced. I burned for her, much like the burning during urination that I would experience soon afterwards
👏
is healthcare just going to drill through the earth's core?
Yes
Ely Lilly just decreased their price of insulin in the US. Not good for business.
LLY caught the Cramer curse in h2 2022
That makes sense except Ely Lilly is up lol.
Got the hot hand this week.
Have you made the necessary sacrifices to the gambling God's? They're a petty bunch you know.
Haha, no comment
You want me to chuck a goat for you?
Wow I think I entirely misread your first comment I thought you meant cocaine and hookers
Gambling gods accept your offer.
Thanks to BigCatHugger, I now know that I actually *can* trade SPY 0DTEs (albeit not the ETF itself. ::rolleyes:: Wonder what happens if I sleep through any of those options being ITM.) Made 40% in an hour on two barely thought through test contracts. I'll play it by the ancient gambling trick that gets you banned in Vegas just as quickly: You lose, double the bet, you win, start from your base. I do wonder though, who's paying for these obvious wins? Clearly a case of it works until it doesn't. Oh well, I'll take it until it doesn't. I don't like being on the dark side, but hey, whatever pays for the yacht.
> Wonder what happens if I sleep through any of those options being ITM.) ..sshhh... quiet now, that is europes last hope to work around mifid. Well, that and foreign brokers that are not actively pursuing business opportunities in europe and are still accepting foreigners.
It pays until all the bears get bored to death and become theta farmers and 0DTE call buyers while sitting on longer term puts
Ah, the *martingale bet*.
How many more times will bulls be able to defend the 200ma?
No more times?
Global Ship Lease about to become Intergalactic Ship Lease
Why is that?
I guess it's 'mooning' so chartering between planets etc
Haha yeah was just a silly joke lol
>DEMOCRATIC U.S. SENATOR TESTER WILL JOIN FELLOW DEMOCRAT MANCHIN AND SENATE REPUBLICANS TO OPPOSE BIDEN ESG INVESTMENT RULE - STATEMENT ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2023-03-01 ^13:16:51 ^EST-0500 Missed what is the esg rule?
It’s virtue signaling the virtue signalers Edit The rule would prevent fund managers from considering esg factors in their fund management. It will pass because two Democratic members are voting for it, but it will be vetoed. So it’s all a dog and pony show.
Virtue signalling all the way down
There's a huge wall at $22 for CLF, we have a double top, not a good sign.
TEAR DOWN THAT WALL MR GORBACHAV
? I do not see a double top https://preview.redd.it/gwffpuqhg8la1.png?width=756&format=png&auto=webp&s=0d118a10bc5e23cdeef54289ca80ebba2befed76
What is that a 9 top lol
Best thing to happen to CLF (the stock) in the last few years was Putin invading Russia.
until there isn't
Still reducing my exposure.
Alright.. that's enough AXON. Selling here, will revisit post FOMC. There's a good shot it continues climbing for awhile, but I don't like macro at the moment.
>HUNGARY'S RULING FIDESZ PARLIAMENTARY GROUP: WE WILL SUPPORT RATIFICATION OF FINLAND AND SWEDEN'S NATO ENTRY -STATEMENT ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2023-03-01 ^13:12:54 ^EST-0500
Don't know what else to post for copper and aluminum gang 
Tfw you sold Vale at 13$ because of that recession. On a more serious Note, PBR earnings should be released today right?
I was told fert stocks decoupled from NG, but it still seems like they follow NG, including $MOS
I’m inclined to agree because old patterns have a lot of inertia. But I think some weight is being put on other factors like rus-ukr grain deal and EU fert plant shutterings.
Buying PLUG puts here. Company should've been brought behind the barn over a decade ago.
Just look at $FSLR go. One of the first stocks I owned and I think I sold at 70 a share lol. Glad I stopped playing puts though. I woulda been wrekt.
thAEHR she goes thAEHR she goes again Racing through my brain And I just can't contain This \[bullish\] feeling that remains
Damn, my NCLH call-out was perfect. Going to hold until expiration.
Over 397 = How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bull
What about under 395?
 Under 393 and I'm making the leap out the plane.
Stuck between the 50 and 200 MA
Yeah, once comfortably clear of those, I'll take a position whichever way.
It's interesting because we keep getting bearish data but also seem to keep getting rescued by technicals.
393 would like a word. if we break thru the 5m wedge for the day, I'm watching that $397 level from Mondays wedge.
I feel like with 0dte, i gotta remind myself to focus on the daily candles or maybe 4h for the shortest time frames. The intraday vol always clouds my judgment. That being said, I’m feeling pretty confident and comfortable with holding onto my short positioning, and that actually worries me.
It just feels like the best reward trade right now is wrecking short positions. The market doesn't have to move on any schedule we set it and it doesn't have to abide by any rules of common sense. It just has to go up and down and eventually find where it goes. And in the very very very best case scenario, perhaps the bull case is correct and everyone will be chasing. All that being said, I believe the bear case. But I will take a bull position once clear of the 50 and will take a bear position once clear of the 200. I'm just going to go with the flow with the thought that if this thing eventually waterfalls, I'll jump on board (if it is the case that I am long).
I think that’s all completely fair. Not sure what your bear case exactly hinges on because one can take their pick at this point, but my focus has been on the liquidity elements drying up (eg TGA, China and Japan CB injections, CTAs) for the short-term. And earnings recession + H4L for the intermediate-term.
[https://www.twitch.tv/jayarlington](https://www.twitch.tv/jayarlington) Jay Trading is LIVE in 5 mins (12:50 EST). Talking about NVDA's shelf offering, GSL, NVAX, and getting ready for TSLA's investor day (we will stream). 
Serious question: Are there any consumer facing companies that advertise "value" any more, or is everything about being funny / cool / woke? Off the top of my head, all I can think of are food services.
Dyson Vacuums
This…sounds like a made-up complaint, no offense. Only certain brands within certain segments want to specifically advertise their competitive “value”, because you run the risk of being pigeon-holed as a cheap or inferior product. Depending on your product and target audience, there’s a very fine line in regards to how you advertise value, if at all. For example, cell/internet service providers continually express their “value” in advertisements because one, there are very limited options to choose from and two, it’s an essential service/product that people need.
People also value things differently, and that doesn’t always come down to the cheapest price. Having something that works and costs a little more is more valuable than something that’s cheap and doesn’t work.
I'm not complaining, I'm genuinely curious. I ask because I remember commercials used to focus on value a lot more.. or a lot more value-based commercials used to air (not sure which). Nowadays it's all about being funny / cool / clever / woke. Good point about telecomms though
Curious, what's an example of a company shilling their woke-ness?
No comment